Pablo Aldonis — OGILVIE

Pablo Aldonis P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 160 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9199vR 107

ERA3.91

FIP3.91

K%22.9%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%15.7%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	6	40	166	49	11	4	67%	4.4	20.7%	8.0%	12.6%	3.3%	3.86	4.19	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	6	40	166	49	11	4	67%	4.4	29.5%	6.6%	22.9%	2.4%	3.86	2.77	—
2023	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	5	5	20	83	21	11	1	100%	4.0	18.7%	15.6%	3.1%	1.7%	4.05	4.44	—
2023	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	5	5	20	83	21	11	1	100%	4.0	18.7%	15.6%	3.1%	1.7%	4.05	4.44	—
2023	21	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	5	5	20	83	21	11	1	100%	4.0	25.3%	13.3%	12.0%	1.2%	4.05	3.30	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	1	55	207	64	10	0	3%	1.8	23.2%	5.9%	17.3%	0.0%	1.64	1.89	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	1	55	207	64	10	0	3%	1.8	23.2%	5.9%	17.3%	0.0%	1.64	1.89	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	1	55	207	64	10	0	3%	1.8	30.9%	4.8%	26.1%	0.0%	1.64	1.32	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	23	0	32	139	32	16	5	0%	1.4	19.1%	13.8%	5.3%	3.2%	4.26	4.99	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	23	0	32	139	32	16	5	0%	1.4	19.1%	13.8%	5.3%	3.2%	4.26	4.99	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	WSH	3	0	4	22	3	2	2	0%	1.4	13.6%	9.1%	4.5%	9.1%	8.31	8.09	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	WSH	20	0	27	117	29	14	3	0%	1.4	24.8%	12.0%	12.8%	2.6%	3.62	3.93	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	WSH	48	0	50	212	49	15	6	0%	1.0	23.3%	7.2%	16.1%	2.7%	3.92	3.90	+0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	48	0	50	212	50	15	6	0%	1.0	23.5%	7.3%	16.2%	2.7%	3.92	3.91	+0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	WSH	21	0	22	93	22	7	2	0%	1.0	23.3%	7.2%	16.1%	2.7%	3.92	3.90	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	31	0	33	139	33	10	4	0%	1.1	23.5%	7.3%	16.2%	2.7%	3.92	3.91	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	0	55	231	54	17	6	0%	1.1	23.4%	7.3%	16.1%	2.7%	3.92	3.52	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	62	22	0%	1.1	23.4%	7.3%	16.1%	2.7%	3.92	3.52	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		68	12	146	595	124	58	11	18%	2.2	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	1.9%	3.14	3.61	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	16	200	813	170	79	16	18%	2.2	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	1.9%	3.14	3.61	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pablo Aldonis (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.91	22.9%	7.1%	2.7%	—	3.91	23.4%	16.1%	100	-0.00	—	—	—
Chris Cotton L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	20.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.288	4.17	9.7%	3.3%	61	+0.48	3.69	128	83
Trey Jeans L 2019 · 2.74 FIP	23	SU	2.74	23.9%	6.6%	1.5%	.345	5.15	22.7%	7.8%	88	+2.41	2.74	111	83
Michael Sansone L 2023 · 3.48 FIP	23	SU	3.48	24.2%	5.2%	3.2%	.338	4.71	16.4%	10.0%	263	+1.23	3.15	291	83
Greg Nappo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	22.7%	7.5%	2.2%	.267	5.25	16.5%	5.9%	79	+1.88	3.37	144	82
Josh Dye L 2021 · 3.51 FIP	24	SU	3.51	22.0%	7.0%	2.5%	.298	5.34	16.6%	10.4%	79	+1.83	2.79	238	82
Trevor Lane L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	24	SU	3.56	21.5%	7.3%	2.5%	.360	3.10	21.2%	12.6%	91	-0.46	2.13	246	81
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	26	SU	3.77	20.5%	6.9%	2.8%	.287	3.21	22.3%	9.6%	66	-0.56	2.81	159	80
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	80
Easton Lucas L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	23.6%	9.2%	3.7%	.316	4.03	21.2%	11.6%	184	-0.26	3.43	311	80
Reagan Todd L 2019 · 2.89 FIP	23	SU	2.89	26.6%	7.1%	2.1%	.286	4.21	26.1%	15.5%	90	+1.32	2.89	122	80
Michael Johnson L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SU	3.92	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	.260	4.70	17.6%	7.7%	185	+0.78	3.92	256	79
Andy Fisher L 2019 · 3.20 FIP	23	SU	3.20	22.8%	4.5%	2.6%	.242	3.66	23.5%	8.7%	89	+0.46	3.13	167	79
Ryan Anderson L 2023 · 2.80 FIP	24	SU	2.80	22.0%	7.8%	1.1%	.245	3.69	18.7%	8.3%	71	+0.89	2.80	214	79
Graeme Stinson L 2022 · 3.56 FIP	24	SU	3.56	23.0%	10.5%	1.9%	.275	4.85	19.5%	3.9%	45	+1.29	3.56	146	79
Carson Skipper L 2023 · 3.02 FIP	23	SU	3.02	22.5%	5.5%	2.1%	.385	3.76	21.0%	12.3%	136	+0.74	3.02	186	79
Tyler Webb L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	25	SU	3.80	21.6%	6.9%	3.0%	.324	3.31	24.3%	17.3%	185	-0.49	3.10	337	79
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.61	24.0%	15.0%	149	+0.93	3.68	206	78
Ben Wereski L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	24	SU	4.78	18.6%	7.6%	4.2%	.287	3.73	29.0%	21.6%	20	-1.05	3.73	132	78
Christian Jones L 2015 · 3.32 FIP	24	SU	3.32	18.5%	7.4%	1.6%	.319	4.00	15.0%	3.7%	89	+0.68	3.32	161	78
Mason Melotakis L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	25	SU	3.32	23.6%	9.2%	1.9%	.379	4.35	18.2%	7.1%	80	+1.03	3.32	142	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	42	23.3%	7.2%	1.04	3.92
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	56	25.0%	6.3%	1.21	3.00
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97