Pablo Aldonis

P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 160 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	AWSH	5	5	20	4.05	3.30	25.3%	13.3%	—	K 18.7% · BB 15.6% · FIP 4.44
2025	23	MIX3 levels	31	1	55	1.64	1.32	30.9%	4.8%	—	K 23.2% · BB 5.9% · FIP 1.89
2026	24	MIX2 levels	23	0	32	4.26	4.65	23.0%	11.5%	—	K 19.1% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.99
2027PROJ	25	MLBWSH	—	—	0	4.53	4.53	21.4%	10.2%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBWSH	16	0	17	4.49	4.48	21.8%	10.0%	0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBWSH	21	0	22	4.50	4.51	21.9%	10.0%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsSean Mellen (age 24) · Pedro Feliciano (age 26) · Harry Gustin (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%21.4%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	6	40	166	49	11	4	67%	4.4	20.7%	8.0%	12.6%	3.3%	3.86	4.19	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	6	40	166	49	11	4	67%	4.4	29.5%	6.6%	22.9%	2.4%	3.86	2.77	—
2023	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	5	5	20	83	21	11	1	100%	4.0	18.7%	15.6%	3.1%	1.7%	4.05	4.44	—
2023	21	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	5	5	20	83	21	11	1	100%	4.0	25.3%	13.3%	12.0%	1.2%	4.05	3.30	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	1	55	207	64	10	0	3%	1.8	23.2%	5.9%	17.3%	0.0%	1.64	1.89	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	1	55	207	64	10	0	3%	1.8	23.2%	5.9%	17.3%	0.0%	1.64	1.89	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	1	55	207	64	10	0	3%	1.8	30.9%	4.8%	26.1%	0.0%	1.64	1.32	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	32	139	32	16	5	0%	1.4	19.1%	13.8%	5.3%	3.2%	4.26	4.99	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	32	139	32	16	5	0%	1.4	19.1%	13.8%	5.3%	3.2%	4.26	4.99	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	32	139	32	16	5	0%	1.4	23.0%	11.5%	11.5%	3.6%	4.26	4.65	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.4%	10.2%	11.2%	2.9%	4.53	4.53	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	38	0	39	166	36	17	5	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	2.9%	4.49	4.48	+0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	34	0	35	149	33	15	4	0%	1.0	21.9%	10.0%	11.9%	2.9%	4.50	4.51	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	16	0	17	72	16	7	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	2.9%	4.49	4.48	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	21	0	22	93	20	9	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	10.0%	11.9%	2.9%	4.50	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	0	39	166	36	17	5	0%	1.1	21.9%	10.0%	11.8%	2.9%	4.50	4.12	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	87	25	0%	1.0	21.9%	10.0%	11.8%	2.9%	4.50	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		68	12	146	595	124	58	11	18%	2.2	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	1.9%	3.14	3.61	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	16	200	813	170	79	16	18%	2.2	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	1.9%	3.14	3.61	+0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 27 IPFIP 3.93 → 4.99 (+1.06)K% 24.8% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.79%	—	×0.770	19.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.97%	—	×1.150	13.76%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.21%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.93 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 4 IPFIP 8.09 → 10.09 (+2.00)K% 13.6% → 10.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.64%	—	×0.740	10.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.180	10.73%
HR / BF /BF	9.09%	÷1.000	×1.300	11.82%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 8.09 → 10.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFredericksburg Nationals · 26 IPFIP 1.01 → 1.90 (+0.89)K% 34.0% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.02%	—	×0.740	25.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.19%	—	×1.180	7.30%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.040	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.01 → 1.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 22 IPFIP 1.28 → 1.87 (+0.60)K% 27.2% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.16%	—	×0.770	20.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.70%	—	×1.150	4.26%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.967	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.28 → 1.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Nationals · 7 IPFIP 0.92 → 1.86 (+0.95)K% 31.0% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.03%	—	×0.680	21.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.45%	—	×1.250	4.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.328	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 166).

Result: FIP 0.92 → 1.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 20 IPFIP 3.30 → 4.44 (+1.13)K% 25.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.30%	—	×0.740	18.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.25%	—	×1.180	15.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷0.917	×1.300	1.71%

Result: FIP 3.30 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Nationals · 27 IPFIP 2.16 → 3.62 (+1.46)K% 29.5% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.46%	—	×0.680	20.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.46%	—	×1.250	5.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷0.911	×1.400	2.75%

Result: FIP 2.16 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFredericksburg Nationals · 13 IPFIP 4.04 → 5.37 (+1.33)K% 29.6% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.63%	—	×0.740	21.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.180	13.11%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷1.074	×1.300	4.48%

Result: FIP 4.04 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pablo Aldonis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	21.4%	10.2%	2.9%	—	4.49	21.8%	11.8%	75	-0.04	—	—	—
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	84
Pedro Feliciano L 2003 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.7%	8.3%	2.3%	.309	3.52	20.2%	11.1%	79	-0.22	2.69	378	84
Harry Gustin L 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SU	3.91	20.7%	11.0%	2.1%	.331	4.33	22.9%	12.7%	109	+0.42	3.70	152	82
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	82
Paul Fry L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	25	SU	4.66	21.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.338	3.43	24.6%	14.6%	159	-1.23	1.78	560	81
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	81
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	81
Mike Zagurski L 2007 · 4.10 FIP	24	SU	4.10	20.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	80
Jackson Lancaster L 2024 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	24.0%	11.1%	3.6%	.355	5.36	18.3%	4.9%	93	+0.88	4.15	142	80
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	80
Jake Kalish L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	17.8%	6.9%	2.6%	.231	3.90	17.0%	11.9%	352	+0.01	2.68	740	80
Wayne Franklin L 2000 · 3.80 FIP	26	SU	3.80	20.4%	10.7%	1.9%	.319	5.53	13.7%	2.4%	231	+1.73	3.80	315	79
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	79
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	79
Will Ohman L 2001 · 4.66 FIP	23	SU	4.66	22.2%	11.1%	3.7%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	350	79
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	79
Robby Ahlstrom L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	21.9%	11.6%	2.1%	.294	4.02	20.7%	11.1%	120	+0.13	3.79	332	79
Bailey Horn L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	25	SU	3.91	21.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.322	4.56	22.4%	11.6%	110	+0.65	3.90	265	78
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.59	24.3%	15.3%	149	+0.91	3.68	206	78
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	32	21.7%	10.1%	1.12	4.50
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*