Josh Hader

P Houston Astros

Age 33 LHP 6'3" / 188 lbs MLB peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MLBHOU	71	0	71	3.80	3.40	37.8%	9.0%	1.0
2025	31	MLBHOU	48	0	53	2.05	3.04	36.9%	7.3%	0.9
2026	32	MIX3 levels	54	1	53	1.52	2.61	32.4%	8.8%	1.2	K 32.9% · BB 9.0% · FIP 1.79
2027PROJ	33	MLBHOU	42	0	44	2.97	3.05	35.0%	8.5%	0.8
2028PROJ	34	MLBHOU	38	0	40	3.20	3.36	34.1%	8.9%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.2 · Next 2 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%90

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo58

Form0.79 ERA (proj 2.97) · K 27.2% (proj 35.0%) · BB 6.2% (proj 8.5%) ▼ last 90d · 23 IP through Oct 27

CompsMike Zagurski (age 34) · Raul Valdes (age 33) · Zac Rosscup (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 5765vR 73

ERA2.97

FIP3.05

K%35.0%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%26.5%

Proj IP44

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p9034.2%

p9032.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.215

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	24	17	104	437	119	35	8	71%	4.3	22.1%	8.8%	13.2%	2.0%	3.03	3.47	—
2015	21	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	24	17	104	437	119	35	8	71%	4.3	27.2%	8.0%	19.2%	1.8%	3.03	2.82	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	126	523	161	55	6	100%	5.0	26.1%	11.2%	14.9%	1.3%	3.29	3.01	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	126	523	161	55	6	100%	5.0	30.8%	10.5%	20.3%	1.1%	3.29	2.47	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	12	100	416	119	52	18	26%	2.1	27.1%	12.9%	14.3%	4.9%	3.79	5.12	-0.7
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	12	100	416	119	52	18	26%	2.1	28.6%	12.5%	16.1%	4.3%	3.79	4.63	-0.1
2018	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	55	0	81	306	143	30	9	0%	1.5	46.7%	9.8%	36.9%	2.8%	2.43	1.93	+2.6
2018	24	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	55	0	81	306	143	30	9	0%	1.5	46.7%	9.8%	36.9%	2.9%	2.43	2.13	+2.4
2019	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	61	0	76	289	138	18	15	0%	1.2	47.8%	6.2%	41.5%	4.9%	2.62	2.57	+1.8
2019	25	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	61	0	76	289	138	18	15	0%	1.2	47.8%	6.2%	41.5%	5.2%	2.62	2.74	+1.6
2020	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	21	0	19	78	31	10	3	0%	0.9	39.7%	12.8%	26.9%	3.7%	3.79	3.38	+0.3
2020	26	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	21	0	19	78	31	10	3	0%	0.9	39.7%	12.8%	26.9%	3.8%	3.79	3.47	+0.2
2021	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	60	0	59	224	102	24	3	0%	1.0	45.5%	10.7%	34.8%	1.3%	1.23	1.31	+2.3
2021	27	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	60	0	59	224	102	24	3	0%	1.0	45.5%	10.7%	34.8%	1.3%	1.23	1.51	+2.1
2022	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	56	0	50	219	81	21	8	0%	0.9	37.0%	9.6%	27.4%	3.6%	5.22	3.15	+0.8
2022	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	56	0	50	219	81	21	8	0%	0.9	37.0%	9.6%	27.4%	3.7%	5.22	3.20	+0.8
2023	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	61	0	56	231	85	28	3	0%	0.9	36.8%	12.1%	24.7%	1.3%	1.28	2.22	+1.6
2023	29	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	61	0	56	231	85	28	3	0%	0.9	36.8%	12.1%	24.7%	1.3%	1.28	2.27	+1.5
2024	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	71	0	71	278	105	25	12	0%	1.0	37.8%	9.0%	28.8%	4.4%	3.80	3.49	+0.9
2024	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	71	0	71	278	105	25	12	0%	1.0	37.8%	9.0%	28.8%	4.4%	3.80	3.49	+0.9
2024	30	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	71	0	71	278	105	25	12	0%	1.0	37.8%	9.0%	28.8%	4.3%	3.80	3.40	+1.0
2025	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	48	0	53	206	76	15	8	0%	1.1	36.9%	7.3%	29.6%	4.0%	2.05	3.10	+0.9
2025	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	48	0	53	206	76	15	8	0%	1.1	36.9%	7.3%	29.6%	4.0%	2.05	3.10	+0.9
2025	31	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	48	0	53	206	76	15	8	0%	1.1	36.9%	7.3%	29.6%	3.9%	2.05	3.04	+0.9
2026	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	54	1	53	204	66	18	4	2%	1.0	32.9%	9.0%	24.0%	0.6%	1.52	1.79	+1.8
2026	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	54	1	53	204	66	18	4	2%	1.0	32.9%	9.0%	24.0%	0.6%	1.52	1.79	+1.8
2026	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	54	1	53	204	66	18	4	2%	1.0	32.4%	8.8%	23.5%	2.0%	1.52	2.61	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			513	0	557	2186	884	207	66	0%	1.1	40.4%	9.5%	31.0%	3.0%	2.50	2.58	+13.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	HOU	42	0	44	186	65	16	5	0%	1.0	35.0%	8.5%	26.5%	2.6%	2.97	3.05	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	HOU	38	0	40	170	58	15	5	0%	1.1	34.1%	8.9%	25.1%	2.9%	3.20	3.36	+0.6
2028	34	MLB CTX	HOU	38	0	40	169	58	15	5	0%	1.1	34.1%	8.9%	25.1%	2.9%	3.20	3.36	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		551	0	597	2356	942	222	71	0%	1.1	40.0%	9.4%	30.5%	3.0%	2.55	2.57	+14.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		185	0	200	789	315	74	24	0%	1.1	40.0%	9.4%	30.5%	3.0%	2.55	2.57	+4.7
Career	—	MLE		583	55	848	3411	1174	340	97	9%	1.5	34.4%	10.0%	24.4%	2.8%	2.88	3.02	+13.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	13	200	805	277	80	23	9%	1.5	34.4%	10.0%	24.4%	2.8%	2.88	3.02	+4.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2017 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 52 IPFIP 6.30 → 7.22 (+0.92)K% 22.4% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.37%	—	×0.880	19.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.60%	—	×1.050	14.28%
HR / BF /BF	6.14%	÷0.933	×1.100	7.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 6.30 → 7.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 69 IPFIP 3.06 → 3.55 (+0.49)K% 29.3% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.33%	—	×0.880	25.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×1.050	12.60%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷0.973	×1.100	1.88%

Result: FIP 3.06 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AABiloxi Shuckers · 57 IPFIP 1.66 → 2.29 (+0.62)K% 32.7% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.74%	—	×0.810	26.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.52%	—	×1.100	9.37%
HR / BF /BF	0.45%	÷1.243	×1.200	0.43%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 149).

Result: FIP 1.66 → 2.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AABiloxi Shuckers · 104 IPFIP 2.82 → 3.47 (+0.65)K% 27.2% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.23%	—	×0.810	22.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.01%	—	×1.100	8.81%
HR / BF /BF	1.83%	÷1.084	×1.200	2.03%

Result: FIP 2.82 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Hader (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	3.36	34.1%	25.1%	40	+0.31	—	—	—
Mike Zagurski L 2017 · 2.94 FIP	34	SU	2.94	31.2%	6.8%	2.9%	.294	3.12	30.4%	21.1%	45	+0.18	2.94	120	62
Raul Valdes L 2011 · 2.65 FIP	33	SU	2.65	27.3%	7.3%	1.7%	.371	3.23	27.4%	23.0%	66	+0.58	2.29	160	61
Zac Rosscup L 2021 · 2.56 FIP	33	SU	2.56	29.1%	11.9%	0.8%	.294	2.83	24.1%	10.2%	29	+0.27	2.56	173	59
Anthony Gose L 2024 · 3.78 FIP	33	SU	3.78	26.4%	11.3%	2.7%	.279	5.07	21.5%	10.1%	97	+1.29	3.78	233	56
Brooks Raley L 2021 · 3.06 FIP	33	SU	3.06	31.7%	7.8%	3.0%	.314	2.71	26.8%	18.8%	108	-0.35	1.74	294	56
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	54
John Bale L 2007 · 2.49 FIP	33	SU	2.49	23.5%	8.4%	0.6%	.364	3.78	15.2%	6.5%	55	+1.29	2.49	168	52
Tom Martin L 2003 · 3.82 FIP	33	SU	3.82	24.3%	9.5%	2.9%	.226	3.99	16.2%	8.6%	106	+0.17	3.40	303	51
Scott Sauerbeck L 2005 · 3.75 FIP	33	SU	3.75	22.3%	8.9%	2.5%	.298	5.05	14.0%	0.0%	25	+1.30	2.79	386	51
Hideki Okajima L 2009 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	20.5%	7.0%	3.1%	.268	4.27	15.5%	8.5%	46	+0.32	3.05	238	51
Tim Byrdak L 2007 · 3.25 FIP	33	SU	3.25	24.6%	11.1%	1.5%	.280	4.96	20.1%	7.6%	155	+1.71	2.85	320	51
Brian Moran L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	33	SU	4.20	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.304	3.72	21.5%	14.5%	152	-0.48	1.80	421	49
Pedro Borbón L 2001 · 3.90 FIP	33	SU	3.90	20.7%	4.1%	3.7%	.258	4.57	21.6%	14.3%	50	+0.67	2.26	264	48
Caleb Thielbar L 2020 · 2.22 FIP	33	SU	2.22	26.8%	11.0%	0.0%	.275	3.11	30.6%	24.0%	154	+0.89	2.22	603	46
Hisanori Takahashi L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	22.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.292	3.81	21.1%	15.0%	118	+0.31	3.50	240	45
Jeff Ibarra L 2019 · 2.85 FIP	31	SU	2.85	20.6%	3.4%	1.9%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.85	101	45
Brady Feigl L 2024 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	23.7%	4.7%	4.4%	.312	3.70	22.2%	14.9%	14	-0.42	2.69	212	45
Kelly Wunsch L 2005 · 3.82 FIP	33	SU	3.82	21.0%	11.4%	1.9%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	175	44
Jamie Walker L 2004 · 3.48 FIP	33	SU	3.48	19.1%	3.2%	2.9%	.295	3.83	16.3%	12.1%	158	+0.35	3.48	442	42
Grant Dayton L 2021 · 4.00 FIP	33	SU	4.00	23.0%	8.2%	3.3%	.325	3.80	23.2%	13.5%	49	-0.20	1.63	277	41

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	58	39.6%	9.6%	1.16	2.58
Bryan Harvey ('87-'94, 12 WAR*)	1.9	64	37.8%*	8.9%*	0.94*	2.59*
Tom Henke ('82-'95, 25 WAR*)	3.9	66	35.9%*	7.7%*	0.93*	2.72*
Billy Wagner ('10)	4.5	65	33.2%	8.3%	0.82	2.31
David Robertson ('25)	4.5	64	31.9%	9.9%	0.82	2.93
Rob Dibble ('88-'95, 10 WAR*)	2.4	68	41.6%*	12.1%*	0.76*	3.34*
Cody Allen ('19)	2.3	58	30.5%	9.9%	1.07	3.14