Josh Hader — OGILVIE

Josh Hader P Houston Astros

Age 32 LHP 6'3" / 188 lbs MLB peak 0.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 5260vR 68

ERA2.65

FIP2.85

K%36.4%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%28.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5795.0

Whiff%

p9035.2%

p9035.8%

xwOBA vs

p900.203

SL+7.1 (41%)

FB+2.9 (54%)

CH+0.8 (4%)

SI (54%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	24	17	104	437	119	35	8	71%	4.3	22.1%	8.8%	13.2%	2.0%	3.03	3.47	—
2015	21	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	24	17	104	437	119	35	8	71%	4.3	27.2%	8.0%	19.2%	1.8%	3.03	2.82	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	126	523	161	55	6	100%	5.0	26.1%	11.2%	14.9%	1.3%	3.29	3.01	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	126	523	161	55	6	100%	5.0	30.8%	10.5%	20.3%	1.1%	3.29	2.47	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	12	100	416	119	52	18	26%	2.1	27.1%	12.9%	14.3%	4.9%	3.79	5.12	-0.7
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	12	100	416	119	52	18	26%	2.1	28.6%	12.5%	16.1%	4.3%	3.79	4.63	-0.1
2018	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	55	0	81	306	143	30	9	0%	1.5	46.7%	9.8%	36.9%	2.8%	2.43	1.93	+2.6
2018	24	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	55	0	81	306	143	30	9	0%	1.5	46.7%	9.8%	36.9%	2.9%	2.43	2.13	+2.4
2019	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	61	0	76	289	138	18	15	0%	1.2	47.8%	6.2%	41.5%	4.9%	2.62	2.57	+1.8
2019	25	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	61	0	76	289	138	18	15	0%	1.2	47.8%	6.2%	41.5%	5.2%	2.62	2.74	+1.6
2020	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	21	0	19	78	31	10	3	0%	0.9	39.7%	12.8%	26.9%	3.7%	3.79	3.38	+0.3
2020	26	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	21	0	19	78	31	10	3	0%	0.9	39.7%	12.8%	26.9%	3.8%	3.79	3.47	+0.2
2021	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	60	0	59	224	102	24	3	0%	1.0	45.5%	10.7%	34.8%	1.3%	1.23	1.31	+2.3
2021	27	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	60	0	59	224	102	24	3	0%	1.0	45.5%	10.7%	34.8%	1.3%	1.23	1.51	+2.1
2022	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	56	0	50	219	81	21	8	0%	0.9	37.0%	9.6%	27.4%	3.6%	5.22	3.15	+0.8
2022	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	56	0	50	219	81	21	8	0%	0.9	37.0%	9.6%	27.4%	3.7%	5.22	3.20	+0.8
2023	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	61	0	56	231	85	28	3	0%	0.9	36.8%	12.1%	24.7%	1.3%	1.28	2.22	+1.6
2023	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	61	0	56	231	85	28	3	0%	0.9	36.8%	12.1%	24.7%	1.3%	1.28	2.22	+1.6
2023	29	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	61	0	56	231	85	28	3	0%	0.9	36.8%	12.1%	24.7%	1.3%	1.28	2.27	+1.5
2024	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	71	0	71	278	105	25	12	0%	1.0	37.8%	9.0%	28.8%	4.4%	3.80	3.49	+0.9
2024	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	71	0	71	278	105	25	12	0%	1.0	37.8%	9.0%	28.8%	4.4%	3.80	3.49	+0.9
2024	30	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	71	0	71	278	105	25	12	0%	1.0	37.8%	9.0%	28.8%	4.3%	3.80	3.40	+1.0
2025	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	48	0	53	206	76	15	8	0%	1.1	36.9%	7.3%	29.6%	4.0%	2.05	3.10	+0.9
2025	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	48	0	53	206	76	15	8	0%	1.1	36.9%	7.3%	29.6%	4.0%	2.05	3.10	+0.9
2025	31	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	48	0	53	206	76	15	8	0%	1.1	36.9%	7.3%	29.6%	3.9%	2.05	3.04	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			510	0	554	2170	883	203	66	0%	1.1	40.7%	9.4%	31.3%	3.0%	2.50	2.56	+13.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	51	1	50	188	65	14	4	2%	1.0	35.8%	7.3%	28.5%	0.7%	1.44	1.38	+1.9
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	51	1	50	188	65	14	4	2%	1.0	35.8%	7.3%	28.5%	0.7%	1.44	1.38	+1.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	AA RAW	HOU	5	1	5	18	8	0	1	20%	1.0	44.4%	0.0%	44.4%	5.6%	1.80	2.40	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	HOU	4	0	4	19	3	3	2	0%	0.9	15.8%	15.8%	0.0%	10.5%	7.36	9.54	—
2026	32	MLB RAW	HOU	42	0	41	151	54	11	1	0%	1.0	35.8%	7.3%	28.5%	0.7%	0.87	1.37	+1.6
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	HOU	42	0	41	151	54	11	1	0%	1.0	35.8%	7.3%	28.5%	0.7%	0.87	1.37	+1.6
ROS	32	MLB MLE	HOU	4	0	5	19	7	2	1	0%	1.1	36.4%	8.0%	28.4%	3.3%	2.65	2.85	+0.1
ROS	32	MLB CTX	HOU	5	0	5	21	8	2	1	0%	1.0	36.4%	8.0%	28.4%	3.3%	2.65	2.85	+0.1
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	55	207	72	16	5	—	—	34.7%	7.5%	27.2%	2.2%	1.54	1.50	+2.3
FULL	32	MLB A+C	HOU	—	—	46	194	72	16	5	—	—	37.2%	8.0%	29.1%	2.4%	1.83	2.29	+1.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	HOU	47	0	49	208	74	18	7	0%	1.0	35.7%	8.5%	27.2%	3.1%	3.07	3.26	+0.8
2028	34	MLB MLE	HOU	43	0	45	189	66	17	7	0%	1.0	34.8%	9.0%	25.8%	3.4%	3.37	3.57	+0.5
2027	33	MLB CTX	HOU	47	0	49	207	74	18	6	0%	1.0	35.7%	8.5%	27.2%	3.1%	3.07	3.26	+0.8
2028	34	MLB CTX	HOU	43	0	45	190	66	17	7	0%	1.0	34.8%	9.0%	25.8%	3.4%	3.37	3.57	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		604	0	652	2586	1030	239	80	0%	1.1	39.8%	9.3%	30.6%	3.1%	2.61	2.60	+15.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		185	0	200	793	316	73	25	0%	1.1	39.8%	9.3%	30.6%	3.1%	2.61	2.60	+4.7
Career	—	MLE		580	55	844	3395	1174	335	97	9%	1.5	34.6%	9.9%	24.7%	2.9%	2.88	3.00	+14.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	13	200	804	278	79	23	9%	1.5	34.6%	9.9%	24.7%	2.9%	2.88	3.00	+4.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Hader (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.36	37.0%	8.4%	3.5%	—	3.41	35.3%	26.6%	94	+0.05	—	—	—
Tony Sipp L 2015 · 2.80 FIP	32	SU	2.80	28.7%	6.5%	2.4%	.267	4.45	23.8%	15.0%	120	+1.65	2.22	195	66
Josh Edgin L 2018 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	29.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	113	66
Boone Logan L 2017 · 2.96 FIP	32	SU	2.96	30.8%	9.9%	2.2%	.346	5.29	24.1%	12.0%	11	+2.33	2.58	113	66
Brooks Raley L 2020 · 3.31 FIP	32	SU	3.31	32.1%	7.1%	3.7%	.208	2.82	28.4%	20.4%	157	-0.49	1.74	255	64
Will Smith L 2021 · 3.80 FIP	32	SU	3.80	30.7%	9.2%	3.9%	.239	3.84	22.2%	15.2%	158	+0.04	1.76	464	62
Jerry Blevins L 2016 · 2.72 FIP	32	SU	2.72	29.2%	6.7%	2.2%	.291	3.66	26.9%	16.5%	124	+0.94	2.71	166	60
Jake Diekman L 2019 · 2.93 FIP	32	SU	2.93	29.8%	13.5%	1.2%	.293	3.99	31.5%	18.1%	140	+1.06	2.36	455	60
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	223	57
Justin Wilson L 2020 · 2.66 FIP	32	SU	2.66	26.7%	9.3%	1.2%	.315	4.86	19.5%	8.8%	34	+2.20	2.49	420	57
Caleb Thielbar L 2019 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	25.9%	5.3%	2.7%	.337	2.71	30.2%	22.6%	143	-0.34	2.22	505	56
Sean Doolittle L 2019 · 3.91 FIP	32	SU	3.91	25.4%	5.0%	4.2%	.306	4.00	23.8%	14.8%	50	+0.09	1.39	259	56
Oliver Pérez L 2015 · 2.88 FIP	33	SU	2.88	27.9%	7.1%	2.2%	.304	2.63	28.3%	21.7%	119	-0.25	1.58	219	55
Mike Dunn L 2017 · 4.29 FIP	32	SU	4.29	25.9%	12.7%	3.2%	.276	5.11	17.3%	2.6%	35	+0.82	3.71	181	54
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2015 · 2.58 FIP	34	SU	2.58	24.2%	9.2%	0.7%	.307	3.30	22.6%	14.3%	71	+0.72	2.58	109	52
Aaron Loup L 2020 · 3.46 FIP	32	SU	3.46	22.9%	4.2%	3.2%	.209	2.95	22.0%	14.8%	164	-0.51	2.07	363	50
Rex Brothers L 2019 · 4.10 FIP	31	SU	4.10	33.9%	18.0%	2.9%	.356	4.36	31.8%	17.8%	53	+0.26	3.10	205	50
Grant Dayton L 2020 · 3.75 FIP	32	SU	3.75	27.4%	8.5%	3.4%	.254	3.84	23.2%	13.8%	62	+0.09	1.63	277	49
Xavier Cedeño L 2018 · 2.50 FIP	31	SU	2.50	25.5%	8.7%	0.8%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	142	49
Fernando Abad L 2017 · 3.53 FIP	31	SU	3.53	20.3%	7.1%	2.2%	.281	2.37	23.3%	21.0%	44	-1.16	2.37	306	47
Zach Duke L 2015 · 4.21 FIP	32	SU	4.21	25.9%	11.0%	3.5%	.250	2.85	22.9%	14.7%	131	-1.36	2.44	215	45

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	35.9%	8.6%	1.31	3.19
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.4	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31