Josh Hader
P
Houston Astros
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 32
LHP
6'3" / 188 lbs
MLB
Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.8 · 2027
ERA3.15
FIP3.60
xFIP3.18
SIERA2.47
K%34.2%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%25.7%
IP54
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2027
K†8080
FB Velo
p6495.5
Whiff%
p9040.5%
K%
p9036.9%
xwOBA vs
p900.221
SL+7.1 (41%)
FB+2.9 (54%)
CH+0.8 (4%)
SI (54%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 24 | 17 | 104 | 437 | 119 | 35 | 8 | 22.1% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 3.03 | 3.49 | +2.1 |
| 2016 | 22 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | 25 | 25 | 126 | 523 | 161 | 55 | 6 | 26.1% | 11.2% | 1.3% | 3.29 | 3.01 | +3.3 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 47 | 12 | 100 | 416 | 119 | 52 | 18 | 27.1% | 12.9% | 4.9% | 3.79 | 5.13 | +0.2 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 55 | 0 | 81 | 306 | 143 | 30 | 9 | 46.7% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 2.43 | 1.89 | +3.0 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 61 | 0 | 76 | 289 | 138 | 18 | 15 | 47.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.62 | 2.66 | +2.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 21 | 0 | 19 | 78 | 31 | 10 | 3 | 39.7% | 12.8% | 3.7% | 3.79 | 3.42 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 60 | 0 | 59 | 224 | 102 | 24 | 3 | 45.5% | 10.7% | 1.3% | 1.23 | 1.34 | +2.4 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 56 | 0 | 50 | 219 | 81 | 21 | 8 | 37.0% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 5.22 | 2.92 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 61 | 0 | 56 | 231 | 85 | 28 | 3 | 36.8% | 12.1% | 1.4% | 1.28 | 2.28 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Houston Astros | 71 | 0 | 71 | 278 | 105 | 25 | 12 | 37.8% | 9.0% | 4.2% | 3.80 | 3.36 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Houston Astros | 48 | 0 | 53 | 206 | 76 | 15 | 8 | 36.9% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 2.05 | 3.11 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 16 | — | 16 | 68 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 35.0% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 2.95 | 3.53 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 74 | 19 | 8 | 34.3% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 3.37 | 3.65 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 49 | — | 49 | 205 | 69 | 18 | 8 | 33.6% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 3.62 | 3.79 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 64 | 18 | 7 | 32.9% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 3.81 | 3.94 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 58 | 17 | 7 | 32.1% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 3.99 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 37 | MLB | HOU | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 52 | 16 | 7 | 31.3% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 4.17 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 38 | MLB | HOU | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 47 | 15 | 6 | 30.5% | 10.0% | 4.2% | 4.35 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 529 | 54 | 794 | 3207 | 1107 | 322 | 95 | 34.5% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 2.97 | 3.08 | +20.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 133 | 14 | 200 | 807 | 279 | 81 | 24 | 34.5% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 2.97 | 3.08 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Hader (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.53 | 35.0% | 8.6% | 3.5% | — | 3.79 | 33.6% | 24.7% | 146 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Josh Edgin L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 113 | 66 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.07 | 30.8% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .346 | 5.22 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 11 | +2.15 | 2.64 | 113 | 65 |
| Brooks Raley L 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.28 | 32.1% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .208 | 2.78 | 28.4% | 20.4% | 157 | -0.50 | 1.74 | 203 | 64 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 2.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 2.68 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 4.36 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 120 | +1.68 | 2.19 | 195 | 63 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 2.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.66 | 29.2% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.68 | 26.9% | 16.5% | 124 | +1.02 | 2.66 | 166 | 60 |
| Chris Sale L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.30 | 28.4% | 6.0% | 3.3% | .342 | 2.50 | 31.1% | 25.1% | 280 | -0.80 | 1.52 | 1,426 | 58 |
| Will Smith L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.82 | 30.7% | 9.2% | 3.9% | .239 | 3.72 | 22.2% | 15.2% | 158 | -0.10 | 1.76 | 464 | 58 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 32 | SW | 2.91 | 29.8% | 13.5% | 1.1% | .293 | 4.02 | 31.5% | 18.1% | 140 | +1.11 | 2.32 | 455 | 57 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2027 · 2.76 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.76 | 27.9% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .304 | 2.62 | 28.3% | 21.7% | 119 | -0.14 | 1.56 | 219 | 55 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.70 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 223 | 55 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.12 | 25.9% | 5.3% | 2.8% | .337 | 2.72 | 30.2% | 22.6% | 143 | -0.40 | 2.22 | 459 | 54 |
| Cam Booser L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.16 | 26.4% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .338 | 5.72 | 25.5% | 12.5% | 46 | +2.56 | 3.16 | 253 | 54 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 2.65 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.65 | 26.7% | 9.3% | 1.1% | .315 | 4.87 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 34 | +2.22 | 2.43 | 420 | 53 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.28 | 25.9% | 12.7% | 3.2% | .276 | 5.11 | 17.3% | 2.6% | 35 | +0.83 | 3.70 | 181 | 53 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.67 | 25.3% | 10.6% | 4.3% | .286 | 5.02 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 32 | +0.35 | 2.37 | 296 | 53 |
| Rex Brothers L 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.12 | 33.9% | 18.0% | 2.9% | .356 | 4.23 | 31.8% | 17.8% | 53 | +0.11 | 3.16 | 205 | 53 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.61 | 25.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | .306 | 4.02 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 50 | +0.41 | 1.42 | 259 | 52 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2028 · 2.57 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.57 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 0.6% | .307 | 3.31 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 71 | +0.74 | 2.57 | 109 | 52 |
| Mike Minor L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 4.8% | .267 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 14.0% | 273 | +0.04 | 2.38 | 807 | 51 |
| Clayton Kershaw L 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.05 | 28.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | .231 | 2.93 | 27.8% | 22.2% | 380 | -0.12 | 1.51 | 1,477 | 50 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2017
Service 8.669 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2029
NTC
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $19M | +0.3 | $1M | -$18M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $19M | +0.8 | $3M | -$16M |
| 2028 | Ext / FA-deal | $19M | +0.6 | $3M | -$16M |
| Totals | $57M | $7M | -$50M | ||
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$50M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$50M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.