Josh Hader
P
Houston Astros
Age 32
LHP
6'3" / 188 lbs
MLB
Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION24 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6675vR 84
ERA2.61
FIP2.76
K%38.2%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%29.1%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p9039.0%
K%
p9041.7%
xwOBA vs
p900.168
SL+7.1 (41%)
FB+2.9 (54%)
CH+0.8 (4%)
SI (54%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 24 | 17 | 104 | 437 | 119 | 35 | 8 | 71% | 4.3 | 22.1% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 1.9% | 3.03 | 3.39 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 24 | 17 | 104 | 437 | 119 | 35 | 8 | 71% | 4.3 | 27.2% | 8.0% | 19.2% | 1.8% | 3.03 | 2.82 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 126 | 523 | 161 | 55 | 6 | 100% | 5.0 | 26.1% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 1.3% | 3.29 | 3.01 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 126 | 523 | 161 | 55 | 6 | 100% | 5.0 | 30.8% | 10.5% | 20.3% | 1.1% | 3.29 | 2.47 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 12 | 100 | 416 | 119 | 52 | 18 | 26% | 2.1 | 27.1% | 12.9% | 14.3% | 5.3% | 3.79 | 5.34 | +0.1 |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 12 | 100 | 416 | 119 | 52 | 18 | 26% | 2.1 | 28.6% | 12.5% | 16.1% | 4.3% | 3.79 | 4.63 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 55 | 0 | 81 | 306 | 143 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.5 | 46.7% | 9.8% | 36.9% | 3.1% | 2.43 | 2.08 | +2.8 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 55 | 0 | 81 | 306 | 143 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.5 | 46.7% | 9.8% | 36.9% | 2.9% | 2.43 | 2.13 | +2.7 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 61 | 0 | 76 | 289 | 138 | 18 | 15 | 0% | 1.2 | 47.8% | 6.2% | 41.5% | 5.4% | 2.62 | 2.82 | +1.8 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 61 | 0 | 76 | 289 | 138 | 18 | 15 | 0% | 1.2 | 47.8% | 6.2% | 41.5% | 5.2% | 2.62 | 2.74 | +1.9 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 21 | 0 | 19 | 78 | 31 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 39.7% | 12.8% | 26.9% | 4.0% | 3.79 | 3.57 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 21 | 0 | 19 | 78 | 31 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 39.7% | 12.8% | 26.9% | 3.8% | 3.79 | 3.47 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 60 | 0 | 59 | 224 | 102 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 45.5% | 10.7% | 34.8% | 1.4% | 1.23 | 1.38 | +2.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 60 | 0 | 59 | 224 | 102 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 45.5% | 10.7% | 34.8% | 1.3% | 1.23 | 1.51 | +2.1 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 56 | 0 | 50 | 219 | 81 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 37.0% | 9.6% | 27.4% | 3.9% | 5.22 | 3.35 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 56 | 0 | 50 | 219 | 81 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 37.0% | 9.6% | 27.4% | 3.7% | 5.22 | 3.20 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 61 | 0 | 56 | 231 | 85 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 36.8% | 12.1% | 24.7% | 1.4% | 1.28 | 2.29 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 61 | 0 | 56 | 231 | 85 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 36.8% | 12.1% | 24.7% | 1.3% | 1.28 | 2.27 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Houston Astros | 71 | 0 | 71 | 278 | 105 | 25 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 37.8% | 9.0% | 28.8% | 4.1% | 3.80 | 3.28 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Houston Astros | 71 | 0 | 71 | 278 | 105 | 25 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 37.8% | 9.0% | 28.8% | 4.3% | 3.80 | 3.40 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Houston Astros | 48 | 0 | 53 | 206 | 76 | 15 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 36.9% | 7.3% | 29.6% | 3.7% | 2.05 | 2.92 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Houston Astros | 48 | 0 | 53 | 206 | 76 | 15 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 36.9% | 7.3% | 29.6% | 3.9% | 2.05 | 3.04 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Houston Astros | 26 | 1 | 24 | 97 | 36 | 11 | 4 | 4% | 0.9 | 41.7% | 13.3% | 28.3% | 1.7% | 2.25 | 2.19 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | HOU | 36 | 0 | 38 | 162 | 62 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 38.2% | 9.1% | 29.1% | 3.2% | 2.61 | 2.76 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | HOU | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 61 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 38.2% | 9.1% | 29.1% | 3.3% | 2.66 | 2.81 | +0.8 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 62 | 259 | 98 | 26 | 9 | — | — | 37.8% | 9.9% | 27.9% | 3.5% | 2.47 | 2.54 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 54 | 226 | 98 | 26 | 9 | — | — | 43.2% | 11.3% | 31.8% | 4.1% | 2.91 | 3.14 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 47 | 0 | 49 | 208 | 77 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 37.0% | 9.5% | 27.5% | 3.5% | 3.28 | 3.45 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 43 | 0 | 45 | 189 | 68 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.1% | 10.0% | 26.1% | 3.8% | 3.57 | 3.76 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 38 | 0 | 40 | 170 | 60 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 35.1% | 10.5% | 24.6% | 4.1% | 3.88 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 77 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 37.0% | 9.5% | 27.5% | 3.6% | 3.34 | 3.51 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 69 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.1% | 10.0% | 26.1% | 3.9% | 3.63 | 3.82 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 59 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 35.1% | 10.5% | 24.6% | 4.2% | 3.95 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 649 | 0 | 700 | 2807 | 1120 | 271 | 93 | 0% | 1.1 | 39.9% | 9.7% | 30.3% | 3.3% | 2.79 | 2.77 | +21.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 185 | 0 | 200 | 802 | 320 | 77 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 39.9% | 9.7% | 30.3% | 3.3% | 2.79 | 2.77 | +6.1 | ||
| Career | — | 555 | 55 | 818 | 3304 | 1147 | 335 | 100 | 10% | 1.5 | 34.7% | 10.1% | 24.6% | 3.0% | 2.95 | 3.12 | +21.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 13 | 200 | 807 | 280 | 82 | 25 | 10% | 1.5 | 34.7% | 10.1% | 24.6% | 3.0% | 2.95 | 3.12 | +5.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Hader (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.24 | 37.1% | 8.3% | 3.4% | — | 3.75 | 36.1% | 26.2% | 134 | +0.51 | — | — | — |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 2.70 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.70 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 4.25 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 120 | +1.55 | 2.18 | 195 | 64 |
| Josh Edgin L 2025 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 113 | 64 |
| Brooks Raley L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.14 | 32.1% | 7.1% | 3.4% | .208 | 2.79 | 28.4% | 20.4% | 157 | -0.35 | 1.74 | 238 | 64 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.97 | 30.8% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .346 | 5.55 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 11 | +2.58 | 2.44 | 113 | 62 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 2.73 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.73 | 29.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .291 | 3.67 | 26.9% | 16.5% | 124 | +0.94 | 2.72 | 166 | 59 |
| Will Smith L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.80 | 30.7% | 9.2% | 3.9% | .239 | 3.80 | 22.2% | 15.2% | 158 | -0.00 | 1.76 | 464 | 58 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 2.90 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.90 | 29.8% | 13.5% | 1.1% | .293 | 3.93 | 31.5% | 18.1% | 140 | +1.03 | 2.33 | 455 | 56 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.24 | 25.9% | 5.3% | 3.0% | .337 | 2.70 | 30.2% | 22.6% | 143 | -0.54 | 2.22 | 487 | 55 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.73 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 223 | 54 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2027 · 2.78 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.78 | 27.9% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .304 | 2.62 | 28.3% | 21.7% | 119 | -0.16 | 1.56 | 219 | 54 |
| Cam Booser L 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.08 | 26.4% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .338 | 4.25 | 27.9% | 17.8% | 83 | +1.17 | 2.89 | 290 | 53 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.05 | 25.9% | 12.7% | 2.8% | .276 | 4.90 | 17.3% | 2.6% | 35 | +0.85 | 3.72 | 181 | 52 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 2.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.66 | 26.7% | 9.3% | 1.2% | .315 | 4.91 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 34 | +2.25 | 2.48 | 420 | 52 |
| Rex Brothers L 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.98 | 33.9% | 18.0% | 2.7% | .356 | 4.23 | 31.8% | 17.8% | 53 | +0.25 | 3.10 | 205 | 51 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.91 | 25.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | .306 | 4.04 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 50 | +0.13 | 1.39 | 259 | 51 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2028 · 2.56 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.56 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 0.6% | .307 | 3.34 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 71 | +0.78 | 2.56 | 109 | 51 |
| Grant Dayton L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.75 | 27.4% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .254 | 3.87 | 23.2% | 13.8% | 62 | +0.12 | 1.73 | 277 | 48 |
| Aaron Loup L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.51 | 22.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | .209 | 2.99 | 22.0% | 14.8% | 164 | -0.52 | 2.07 | 363 | 46 |
| Zach Duke L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.18 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .250 | 2.81 | 22.9% | 14.7% | 131 | -1.37 | 2.44 | 215 | 46 |
| Xavier Cedeño L 2025 · 2.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.48 | 25.5% | 8.7% | 0.8% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 142 | 45 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 47 | 36.4% | 9.5% | 1.41 | 3.42 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |
| Andrew Miller ('21) | 6 | 54 | 35.9% | 8.3% | 0.97 | 2.73 |
| Corey Knebel ('22) | 6 | 47 | 32.3% | 11.2% | 0.95 | 3.04 |
| Keone Kela ('19) | 5 | 43 | 30.1% | 9.4% | 0.92 | 3.23 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Diego Castillo ('22) | 5 | 52 | 28.1% | 8.9% | 1.07 | 3.12 |