Kyson Witherspoon
P
Greenville Drive
Age 21
RHP
6'2" / 206 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.7 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 34 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 107
ERA4.72
FIP4.72
K%21.9%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%10.7%
ROS IP34
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 15 | 15 | 66 | 281 | 69 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 4.4 | 18.9% | 13.1% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 5.07 | 5.36 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | BOS | 7 | 7 | 34 | 145 | 32 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.9% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.9% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.73 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 100 | 426 | 101 | 48 | 13 | — | — | 23.7% | 11.3% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.95 | 5.14 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 21 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.9% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | BOS | 7 | 7 | 36 | 152 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.0% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | BOS | 7 | 7 | 37 | 158 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 7 | 7 | 38 | 162 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.3% | 9.4% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 7 | 7 | 39 | 164 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.7% | 9.2% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 39 | 164 | 41 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.5 | 24.9% | 9.2% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 38 | 161 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 37 | 157 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.7% | 9.4% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | BOS | 4 | 4 | 18 | 76 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 4.5 | 23.0% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | BOS | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 32 | 135 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.3% | 9.4% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.7% | 9.2% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 37 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.9% | 9.2% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 37 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.7% | 9.4% | 15.3% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 38 | 217 | 916 | 224 | 87 | 27 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 3.85 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 207 | 80 | 25 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 15 | 15 | 66 | 281 | 53 | 37 | 11 | 100% | 4.4 | 18.9% | 13.1% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 5.07 | 5.36 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 46 | 200 | 856 | 162 | 112 | 34 | 100% | 4.4 | 18.9% | 13.1% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 5.07 | 5.36 | +0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyson Witherspoon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 21.9% | 11.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.33 | 23.7% | 13.9% | 112 | -0.39 | — | — | — |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .331 | 6.04 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.32 | 4.72 | 283 | 87 |
| Chad Patrick R 2028 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 87 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 86 |
| Curtis Taylor R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.10 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.42 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.68 | 2.58 | 408 | 86 |
| TJ Shook R 2028 · 4.82 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.82 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.12 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.30 | 3.36 | 432 | 86 |
| Tanner Burns R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .292 | 5.42 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.35 | 4.07 | 378 | 85 |
| Silvano Hechavarria R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.23 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .212 | 4.80 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 120 | +0.57 | 3.80 | 169 | 85 |
| John Klein R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.59 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.12 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 264 | -0.47 | 3.23 | 317 | 85 |
| Christian Roa R 2027 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.02 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .321 | 4.92 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 260 | -0.10 | 4.38 | 406 | 84 |
| José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.32 | 3.08 | 543 | 84 |
| Mike Vasil R 2027 · 3.71 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.71 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.60 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +0.89 | 3.71 | 429 | 83 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.67 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .341 | 3.99 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.32 | 3.44 | 259 | 83 |
| Gabriel Hughes R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.02 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 4.6% | .302 | 3.95 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 143 | -1.07 | 2.58 | 210 | 83 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2027 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.47 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.54 | 3.95 | 411 | 83 |
| Glenn Sparkman R 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.90 | 20.0% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .296 | 3.61 | 15.9% | 10.9% | 207 | -0.29 | 3.48 | 363 | 82 |
| Drew Anderson R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.54 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .295 | 4.74 | 16.3% | 7.6% | 273 | +1.20 | 3.11 | 506 | 82 |
| Bryce Jarvis R 2028 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.78 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 3.8% | .276 | 5.00 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 296 | +0.22 | 4.22 | 513 | 82 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 82 |
| Jaxon Wiggins R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.61 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 1.4% | .286 | 3.29 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 79 | -0.32 | 3.12 | 132 | 82 |
| Frank German R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.10 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 3.8% | .308 | 4.77 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 123 | -0.33 | 3.16 | 218 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 37 | 24.1% | 9.7% | 1.14 | 4.34 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Dominic Leone ('23) | 7 | 46 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 3.81 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |