Kyson Witherspoon

Kyson Witherspoon P Frederick Keys

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 206 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.6 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%22.4%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$19M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4550

CMD3550

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$7M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$12M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	20	20	90	381	98	44	10	100%	4.5	19.8%	13.3%	6.5%	3.3%	4.22	4.91	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	20	20	90	381	98	44	10	100%	4.5	19.8%	13.3%	6.5%	3.3%	4.22	4.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	BAL	20	20	90	381	98	44	10	100%	4.5	25.7%	11.5%	14.2%	2.6%	4.22	3.83	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	92	389	91	41	11	100%	5.1	23.3%	10.7%	12.7%	3.0%	4.57	4.48	+0.5
2028	23	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	96	404	97	40	12	100%	5.3	24.0%	9.8%	14.1%	2.9%	4.40	4.30	+0.7
2029	24	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	98	414	101	39	12	100%	5.4	24.4%	9.4%	15.1%	2.9%	4.27	4.19	+0.8
2030	25	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	99	419	104	38	12	100%	5.8	24.8%	9.1%	15.6%	2.9%	4.18	4.12	+0.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	99	419	105	38	12	100%	5.8	25.0%	9.1%	15.9%	2.9%	4.13	4.10	+0.9
2032	27	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	98	413	103	38	12	100%	6.1	24.9%	9.2%	15.8%	2.9%	4.13	4.14	+0.9
2033	28	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	95	401	99	37	12	100%	5.9	24.8%	9.3%	15.5%	3.0%	4.19	4.22	+0.8
2034	29	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	91	383	94	36	12	100%	6.0	24.6%	9.5%	15.0%	3.2%	4.29	4.35	+0.6
2035	30	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	85	360	87	35	12	100%	6.1	24.2%	9.8%	14.4%	3.4%	4.44	4.53	+0.4
2036	31	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	79	335	87	31	12	100%	6.1	25.8%	9.4%	16.4%	3.6%	4.45	4.46	+0.4
2037	32	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	73	310	79	30	12	100%	6.1	25.4%	9.8%	15.6%	3.8%	4.59	4.69	+0.2
2038	33	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	67	284	71	29	12	100%	6.1	24.9%	10.2%	14.6%	4.1%	4.80	4.94	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	46	194	45	21	6	100%	5.1	23.3%	10.7%	12.7%	3.1%	4.64	4.55	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	70	296	71	29	9	100%	5.4	24.0%	9.8%	14.1%	3.0%	4.47	4.37	+0.5
2029	24	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	81	342	84	32	10	100%	5.8	24.4%	9.4%	15.1%	3.0%	4.34	4.26	+0.7
2030	25	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	88	372	92	34	11	100%	5.9	24.8%	9.1%	15.6%	3.0%	4.25	4.19	+0.8
2031	26	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	91	384	96	35	12	100%	6.1	25.0%	9.1%	15.9%	3.0%	4.20	4.17	+0.9
2032	27	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	91	384	96	35	12	100%	6.1	24.9%	9.2%	15.8%	3.1%	4.20	4.21	+0.8
2033	28	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	89	376	93	35	12	100%	5.9	24.8%	9.3%	15.5%	3.2%	4.26	4.29	+0.7
2034	29	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	86	363	89	35	12	100%	6.1	24.6%	9.5%	15.0%	3.3%	4.37	4.43	+0.6
2035	30	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	81	342	83	34	12	100%	5.8	24.2%	9.8%	14.4%	3.5%	4.52	4.61	+0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	75	317	82	30	12	100%	6.2	25.8%	9.4%	16.4%	3.8%	4.54	4.55	+0.4
2037	32	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	70	296	75	29	12	100%	5.8	25.4%	9.8%	15.6%	4.0%	4.69	4.79	+0.2
2038	33	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	64	270	67	28	12	100%	5.8	24.9%	10.2%	14.6%	4.3%	4.90	5.04	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		159	159	931	3930	972	375	131	100%	5.9	24.7%	9.5%	15.2%	3.3%	4.42	4.05	+9.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	209	81	28	100%	5.8	24.7%	9.5%	15.2%	3.3%	4.42	4.05	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		20	20	90	381	75	51	12	100%	4.5	19.8%	13.3%	6.5%	3.3%	4.22	4.91	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	45	200	850	168	113	28	100%	4.5	19.8%	13.3%	6.5%	3.3%	4.22	4.91	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyson Witherspoon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	22.4%	12.0%	3.0%	—	4.32	23.9%	14.0%	286	-0.44	—	—	—
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	85
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	84
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	83
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	82
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	82
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	82
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	82
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	81
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	81
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	80
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	80
Alec Kisena R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP	4.01	17.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	248	80
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	80
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	79
Regi Grace R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	21	SP	4.76	19.6%	10.7%	3.5%	.227	3.99	19.6%	8.5%	173	-0.77	3.44	224	79
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	78
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	78
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	78
Caden Dana R 2023 · 3.64 FIP	19	SP	3.64	24.2%	12.3%	1.9%	.297	4.62	20.2%	9.5%	348	+0.98	3.64	417	78
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.5	84	24.6%	9.6%	1.22	4.36
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45