Kyson Witherspoon

P Frederick Keys

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 206 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#139ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	21	A+BAL	20	20	90	4.22	3.84	25.7%	11.5%	—	K 19.8% · BB 13.3% · FIP 4.91
2027PROJ	22	MLBBAL	1	1	4	4.97	4.97	21.7%	12.9%	0.0
2028PROJ51% MLB	23	MLBBAL	10	10	53	4.81	4.71	22.9%	11.4%	0.5
2029PROJ71% MLB	24	MLBBAL	15	15	82	4.62	4.51	23.7%	10.4%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$5M2033Arb-3$6M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 11, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 82%

CompsCJ Van Eyk (age 22) · Aaron Davenport (age 22) · Will Sanders (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%21.7%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%8.8%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$37M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$8M	+$8M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+1.4	$8M	+$6M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+1.4	$8M	+$5M
2033	Arb-3	$6M	+1.2	$6M	+$3M
Totals		$17M		$35M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	20	20	90	381	98	44	10	100%	4.5	19.8%	13.3%	6.5%	3.3%	4.22	4.91	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	20	20	90	381	98	44	10	100%	4.5	19.8%	13.3%	6.5%	3.3%	4.22	4.91	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	20	20	90	381	98	44	10	100%	4.5	25.7%	11.5%	14.2%	2.6%	4.22	3.84	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	BAL	1	1	4	17	4	2	1	100%	4.0	21.7%	12.9%	8.8%	3.1%	4.97	4.97	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	104	440	101	50	13	100%	5.5	22.9%	11.4%	11.6%	3.0%	4.74	4.64	+0.9
2029	24	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	116	490	116	51	15	100%	5.5	23.7%	10.4%	13.2%	3.0%	4.55	4.44	+1.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	124	523	126	52	16	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.9%	14.2%	3.0%	4.41	4.33	+1.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	123	520	126	51	15	100%	5.9	24.2%	9.8%	14.5%	3.0%	4.34	4.30	+1.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	120	507	123	50	15	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.8%	14.4%	3.0%	4.34	4.34	+1.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	115	484	117	48	15	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.0%	14.1%	3.1%	4.39	4.42	+1.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	107	451	108	46	15	100%	5.9	23.8%	10.2%	13.6%	3.3%	4.49	4.56	+1.0
2035	30	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	97	410	96	43	14	100%	6.1	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	3.5%	4.64	4.73	+0.8
2036	31	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	87	367	85	40	14	100%	6.2	23.1%	10.9%	12.2%	3.7%	4.82	4.94	+0.5
2037	32	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	77	325	74	37	13	100%	5.9	22.7%	11.3%	11.4%	3.9%	5.03	5.16	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	53	224	51	25	7	100%	5.3	22.9%	11.4%	11.6%	3.2%	4.81	4.71	+0.5
2029	24	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	82	346	82	36	11	100%	5.5	23.7%	10.4%	13.2%	3.1%	4.62	4.51	+0.9
2030	25	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	101	426	103	42	13	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.9%	14.2%	3.1%	4.48	4.40	+1.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	108	456	110	45	14	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.8%	14.5%	3.1%	4.41	4.37	+1.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	109	460	111	45	15	100%	6.1	24.2%	9.8%	14.4%	3.2%	4.41	4.41	+1.4
2033	28	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	106	448	108	45	15	100%	5.9	24.1%	10.0%	14.1%	3.3%	4.47	4.50	+1.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	100	422	101	43	14	100%	5.9	23.8%	10.2%	13.6%	3.4%	4.57	4.64	+1.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	91	384	90	40	14	100%	6.1	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	3.6%	4.73	4.82	+0.7
2036	31	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	83	350	81	38	14	100%	5.9	23.1%	10.9%	12.2%	3.9%	4.91	5.03	+0.4
2037	32	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	73	308	70	35	13	100%	6.1	22.7%	11.3%	11.4%	4.1%	5.13	5.26	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		154	154	906	3826	908	395	129	100%	5.9	23.7%	10.3%	13.4%	3.4%	4.62	4.26	+12.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	200	87	28	100%	5.9	23.7%	10.3%	13.4%	3.4%	4.62	4.26	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		20	20	90	381	75	51	12	100%	4.5	19.8%	13.3%	6.5%	3.3%	4.22	4.91	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	45	200	850	168	113	28	100%	4.5	19.8%	13.3%	6.5%	3.3%	4.22	4.91	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 90 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.91 (+1.08)K% 25.7% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.72%	—	×0.770	19.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.55%	—	×1.150	13.28%
HR / BF /BF	2.62%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.28%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyson Witherspoon (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.46	23.6%	13.1%	344	-0.51	—	—	—
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	94
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.94	16.9%	5.6%	391	+0.13	4.04	498	92
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	90
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	89
Rick Van Den Hurk R 2007 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP	4.88	21.6%	11.3%	4.0%	.331	4.31	21.2%	12.5%	90	-0.57	3.27	172	88
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	88
Frank German R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SP	5.01	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.56	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.45	3.10	218	88
Mason Hickman R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP	4.69	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.36	23.9%	11.1%	181	+0.67	4.69	300	88
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	87
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	87
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2024 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP	5.25	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.92	22.8%	10.9%	221	-0.33	4.16	324	87
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	87
Paxton Schultz R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	19.7%	11.6%	3.4%	.353	4.69	20.3%	8.9%	305	-0.08	3.83	543	86
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	86
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	86
Jordan Foley R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	19.6%	12.1%	1.6%	.294	4.00	22.8%	9.3%	162	+0.16	3.21	305	86
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	86
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	86
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.08	17.8%	6.3%	296	+0.09	4.14	536	85
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.8	105	23.5%	10.5%	1.24	4.58
Bill Butler ('69-'77, 2 WAR*)	3.0	99	22.0%*	11.3%*	1.30*	4.83*
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Tylor Megill ('25)	2.0	82	24.3%	9.1%	1.27	4.46
Joe Decker ('69-'79, 6 WAR*)	3.5	101	21.4%*	11.8%*	1.04*	4.49*