Kyson Witherspoon P Greenville Drive
Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 206 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 34 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 107
ERA4.72
FIP4.72
K%21.9%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%10.7%
ROS IP34
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
K: +0.8 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+1KBB: -3.2 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-3BBCONTACT: -8.3 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-8CONTACTSTAM: +13.6 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+14STAMTotal WAR: +0.30 (100 IP)+0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.20.20.30.30.30.2+$5M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP50
STUF4550
CTRL4050
CMD3545
K†5060
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.7M+$0.0M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.9M+$0.3M
2031Arb-1$1M+0.3$0.8M+$0.1M
2032Arb-2$2M+0.3$0.8M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Arb-3$2M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $4M $4M +$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ 2026 Season
202621A+Greenville Drive15156628169329100%4.418.9%13.1%5.8%4.0%5.075.36-0.5
ROS21MLBBOS773414532164100%4.921.9%11.2%10.7%3.0%4.724.72-0.1
ROS21MLBBOS021.9%11.2%10.7%3.1%4.734.73
2026 TOT21MLBBOS100426101481323.7%11.3%12.3%3.1%4.955.14+0.3
2026 FULL21MLBBOS0100021.9%11.2%10.7%3.1%4.734.35+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202722MLBBOS773615235165100%5.123.0%10.3%12.7%3.0%4.564.48+0.0
202823MLBBOS773715838155100%5.323.8%9.7%14.0%2.9%4.414.32+0.1
202924MLBBOS773816239155100%5.524.3%9.4%14.9%2.9%4.294.21+0.2
203025MLBBOS773916440155100%5.524.7%9.2%15.4%2.9%4.214.16+0.2
203126MLBBOS663916441155100%6.524.9%9.2%15.7%2.9%4.164.13+0.2
203227MLBBOS663816140155100%6.424.9%9.3%15.6%2.9%4.174.17+0.2
203328MLBBOS663715739155100%6.224.7%9.4%15.3%3.0%4.224.26+0.1
202722MLBBOS4418761782100%4.523.0%10.3%12.7%3.0%4.574.49+0.0
202823MLBBOS552711427113100%5.423.8%9.7%14.0%2.9%4.424.33+0.1
202924MLBBOS663213533134100%5.324.3%9.4%14.9%2.9%4.304.22+0.1
203025MLBBOS663414435134100%5.724.7%9.2%15.4%2.9%4.224.17+0.2
203126MLBBOS663514837144100%5.824.9%9.2%15.7%2.9%4.174.14+0.2
203227MLBBOS663514837144100%5.824.9%9.3%15.6%3.0%4.184.18+0.2
203328MLBBOS663514837145100%5.824.7%9.4%15.3%3.1%4.234.27+0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career38382179162248727100%5.724.4%9.5%15.0%3.0%4.273.85+3.9
/ 200 IP35352008442078025100%5.724.4%9.5%15.0%3.0%4.273.85+3.6
Career151566281533711100%4.418.9%13.1%5.8%4.0%5.075.36-0.5
/ 200 IP464620085616211234100%4.418.9%13.1%5.8%4.0%5.075.36+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Kyson Witherspoon (OGILVIE) 4.72 21.9%11.2%3.0% 4.33 23.7%13.9%112 -0.39
Chih-Jung Liu R 2027 · 4.72 FIP 22 SP 4.72 18.8%10.5%3.4%.331 6.04 21.6%9.0%233 +1.32 4.72 283 87
Chad Patrick R 2028 · 3.92 FIP 23 SP 3.92 20.3%9.9%2.3%.315 4.36 22.3%13.8%422 +0.44 3.76 537 87
Bryce Cunningham R 2027 · 4.06 FIP 22 SP 4.06 19.3%9.9%2.4%.268 5.93 17.4%2.1%47 +1.87 4.06 101 86
Curtis Taylor R 2027 · 4.10 FIP 22 SP 4.10 19.3%9.9%2.5%.305 3.42 23.5%13.7%96 -0.68 2.58 408 86
TJ Shook R 2028 · 4.82 FIP 23 SP 4.82 21.7%13.8%3.3%.311 5.12 20.7%10.3%296 +0.30 3.36 432 86
Tanner Burns R 2027 · 4.07 FIP 22 SP 4.07 22.2%10.6%2.8%.292 5.42 19.5%6.0%244 +1.35 4.07 378 85
Silvano Hechavarria R 2026 · 4.23 FIP 21 SP 4.23 20.0%10.3%2.8%.212 4.80 16.2%5.7%120 +0.57 3.80 169 85
John Klein R 2026 · 4.59 FIP 21 SP 4.59 17.4%11.4%2.8%.287 4.12 20.0%10.4%264 -0.47 3.23 317 85
Christian Roa R 2027 · 5.02 FIP 22 SP 5.02 19.6%12.4%3.6%.321 4.92 22.7%6.2%260 -0.10 4.38 406 84
José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP 21 SP 4.04 19.1%9.9%2.3%.329 3.72 17.9%9.9%436 -0.32 3.08 543 84
Mike Vasil R 2027 · 3.71 FIP 22 SP 3.71 21.9%10.5%2.0%.264 4.60 19.1%9.4%359 +0.89 3.71 429 83
Jimmy Joyce R 2027 · 3.67 FIP 22 SP 3.67 25.0%9.0%2.8%.341 3.99 20.4%9.7%242 +0.32 3.44 259 83
Gabriel Hughes R 2026 · 5.02 FIP 21 SP 5.02 22.2%10.0%4.6%.302 3.95 18.7%10.3%143 -1.07 2.58 210 83
CJ Van Eyk R 2027 · 5.01 FIP 22 SP 5.01 21.8%12.7%3.9%.302 4.47 15.2%5.3%127 -0.54 3.95 411 83
Glenn Sparkman R 2028 · 3.90 FIP 23 SP 3.90 20.0%11.6%1.8%.296 3.61 15.9%10.9%207 -0.29 3.48 363 82
Drew Anderson R 2027 · 3.54 FIP 22 SP 3.54 21.1%9.2%1.9%.295 4.74 16.3%7.6%273 +1.20 3.11 506 82
Bryce Jarvis R 2028 · 4.78 FIP 23 SP 4.78 21.2%11.0%3.8%.276 5.00 18.0%6.0%296 +0.22 4.22 513 82
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2027 · 4.00 FIP 22 SP 4.00 21.9%9.8%2.7%.175 4.15 18.0%7.5%168 +0.15 3.59 307 82
Jaxon Wiggins R 2027 · 3.61 FIP 22 SP 3.61 22.5%12.8%1.4%.286 3.29 24.5%11.4%79 -0.32 3.12 132 82
Frank German R 2026 · 5.10 FIP 21 SP 5.10 19.5%12.4%3.8%.308 4.77 18.9%9.4%123 -0.33 3.16 218 81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION83724.1%9.7%1.144.34
Jacob Barnes ('24)74222.1%9.6%1.214.58
Bryan Shaw ('23)86421.4%9.4%1.124.19
Hansel Robles ('22)75925.3%10.1%1.163.86
Dominic Leone ('23)74624.2%10.1%1.333.81
Daniel Hudson ('24)95225.5%8.9%1.133.75
Shane Greene ('21)75621.4%8.5%1.164.67