Billy Carlson — OGILVIE

Billy CarlsonSS Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 20 R/R 6'1" / 185 lbs A HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION257 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP302

ISO114

MLB%4%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$87M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 49

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER49

scouting grade only

EYE57

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

DEFENSE69

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.8	$11M	+$10M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.0	$11M	+$10M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.1	$11M	+$10M
2033	Arb-1	$6M	+2.1	$10M	+$7M
2034	Arb-2	$10M	+1.9	$8M	+$4M
2035	Arb-3	$14M	+1.9	$8M	+$2M
Totals		$33M		$58M	+$44M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
YTD	20	A MLE	CWS	—	257	222	46	10	2	0	26	82	5	13	2	207	304	270	575	63	324	32	10	261	63	-11	+2	+0	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A RAW	CWS	—	257	207	53	13	2	0	41	58	5	13	2	256	391	338	729	82	351	23	16	337	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	A MLE	CWS	4%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		302	30	10	281	76	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	20	A MLE	CWS	—	267	231	47	10	2	0	27	85	5	13	2	203	300	264	564	61	318	32	10	262	63	-12	+2	+0	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CWS	50%	448	398	88	17	3	7	41	124	6	10	2	221	303	332	635	111	302	28	9	291	83	-9	+1	+5	+5	+10	1.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	CWS	69%	490	435	98	19	3	9	45	132	7	11	2	225	308	345	653	120	302	27	9	298	88	-7	+1	+6	+5	+11	1.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	CWS	77%	529	468	108	21	3	11	49	141	7	12	2	231	313	359	672	128	302	27	9	303	91	-6	+2	+6	+6	+11	2.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	CWS	78%	571	505	119	23	4	13	53	150	8	13	2	236	318	374	692	139	303	26	9	307	94	-4	+2	+6	+6	+12	2.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	CWS	79%	612	541	127	24	4	14	57	161	9	13	3	235	318	372	689	137	303	26	9	309	95	-4	+1	+7	+7	+13	2.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	CWS	79%	625	553	130	25	4	15	58	164	9	14	3	235	318	376	694	141	303	26	9	310	96	-3	+2	+7	+7	+14	2.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	CWS	78%	628	555	131	25	4	15	59	166	9	14	3	236	319	377	696	141	303	26	9	310	96	-3	+2	+7	+7	+14	2.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	CWS	77%	625	552	129	25	4	14	59	166	9	13	3	234	318	370	687	136	303	27	9	309	95	-3	+1	+6	+7	+14	2.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	CWS	82%	617	544	126	24	4	14	59	165	9	13	2	232	317	368	685	136	302	27	10	307	94	-4	+2	+6	+7	+13	2.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	CWS	85%	607	536	122	23	3	13	58	164	8	12	2	228	312	354	667	127	301	27	10	305	92	-5	+2	+5	+7	+13	2.1
2037	31	MLB MLE	CWS	87%	594	524	118	22	3	13	57	162	8	11	2	225	311	353	664	128	299	27	10	301	90	-7	+1	+4	+6	+13	1.8
2038	32	MLB MLE	CWS	89%	575	507	113	21	3	12	55	159	8	11	2	223	309	347	656	124	296	28	10	296	86	-9	+1	+3	+6	+12	1.4
2039	33	MLB MLE	CWS	90%	546	482	104	19	3	10	52	154	7	10	2	216	301	330	631	114	292	28	10	289	82	-12	+1	+2	+6	+12	0.9
2040	34	MLB MLE	CWS	85%	498	442	93	16	3	9	47	143	6	8	2	210	295	321	616	111	287	29	9	281	76	-14	+1	+1	+5	+11	0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	CWS	50%	224	198	45	9	1	4	21	62	3	5	1	227	311	343	654	116	303	28	9	281	83	-5	+1	+3	+2	+5	0.6
2028	22	MLB CTX	CWS	69%	337	298	67	13	2	6	31	91	5	8	1	225	308	342	651	117	303	27	9	289	88	-5	+1	+4	+4	+7	1.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	CWS	77%	405	359	83	16	3	8	37	108	6	9	2	231	313	359	673	128	303	27	9	294	91	-4	+1	+5	+4	+9	1.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	CWS	78%	445	395	93	18	3	10	41	117	6	10	2	235	317	372	689	137	304	26	9	298	94	-3	+1	+5	+5	+10	1.8
2031	25	MLB CTX	CWS	79%	482	427	100	19	3	11	45	127	7	11	2	234	317	370	687	136	304	26	9	300	95	-3	+1	+5	+5	+10	2.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	CWS	79%	494	438	103	20	3	12	46	130	7	11	2	235	318	377	694	142	304	26	9	301	96	-2	+1	+6	+5	+11	2.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	CWS	78%	487	431	101	19	3	12	46	128	7	11	2	234	318	376	694	142	304	26	9	301	96	-2	+1	+5	+5	+11	2.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	CWS	77%	480	424	99	19	3	11	46	127	7	10	2	233	319	370	689	137	304	26	10	300	95	-3	+1	+5	+5	+10	1.9
2035	29	MLB CTX	CWS	82%	504	444	104	20	3	12	48	135	7	10	2	234	319	374	693	140	303	27	10	299	94	-3	+1	+5	+5	+11	1.9
2036	30	MLB CTX	CWS	85%	515	454	105	20	3	12	49	139	7	10	2	231	316	368	684	137	302	27	10	296	92	-5	+1	+4	+6	+11	1.8
2037	31	MLB CTX	CWS	87%	518	456	104	20	3	11	50	141	7	10	2	228	314	357	671	129	300	27	10	292	90	-6	+1	+3	+6	+11	1.5
2038	32	MLB CTX	CWS	89%	510	449	101	19	3	11	49	141	7	9	2	225	311	354	665	129	297	28	10	287	86	-8	+1	+3	+5	+11	1.2
2039	33	MLB CTX	CWS	90%	490	435	95	17	3	10	46	138	6	9	2	218	302	340	642	122	293	28	9	281	82	-11	+1	+2	+5	+11	0.8
2040	34	MLB CTX	CWS	85%	424	376	79	14	2	8	40	122	5	7	1	210	295	322	616	112	287	29	9	272	76	-12	+1	+1	+5	+9	0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	6315	5584	1279	243	38	138	595	1706	87	130	25	229	313	360	673	131	303	27	9	293	90	-73	+16	+54	+68	+137	20.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	132	25	4	14	61	176	9	13	3	230	313	360	673	130	304	27	9	293	90	-7	+2	+6	+7	+14	2.1
Career	—	MLE		—	7975	7051	1607	304	48	169	750	2154	110	165	32	228	312	357	668	129	302	27	9	302	90	-92	+20	+70	+85	+173	26.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	132	25	4	14	61	176	9	13	3	230	313	360	673	130	304	27	9	302	90	-7	+2	+6	+7	+14	2.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Ingelast yr '13 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,617 PA	8.5	5,617	152	45	233	301	384	+26	+73	19.8	20.5
/162	664	18	5	+3.1	+8.6	2.3	pk7: 21
#2Alcides Escobarlast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,178 PA	9.3	6,178	45	178	258	295	345	+66	+92	19.2	18.2
/162	664	5	19	+7.1	+9.9	2.1	pk7: 17
#3Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
/162	664	17	9	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	9.5	6,328	135	130	229	309	358	+65	+84	18.0	15.0
/162	664	14	14	+6.8	+8.8	1.9	pk7: 12
#4Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	3.3	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
/162	664	19	8	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Billy Carlson (OGILVIE)	20	34→50	35→49	55	57	214/298/311	97	302	4	10	28%	9%	76	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hao-Yu Lee 2023 · A	20	48→44	45→50	48→55	46	232/305/356	123	310	12	12	28%	8%	88	+0.5	236/300/363	127	303	12	16	25%	7%	88	+0.4	241/304/389	148	298	14	15	23%	7%	93	+0.6
✕Blaze Alexander 2019 · A	20	48	42→45	52→50	43	226/288/345	119	321	8	10	30%	7%	79	-0.2	202/270/304	102	302	9	11	34%	7%	63	-1.3	239/319/362	123	339	12	15	30%	8%	93	+0.6
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	46→55	42→45	49→50	46	224/285/337	113	288	9	9	25%	8%	76	-0.4	235/301/339	104	297	6	12	21%	8%	82	+0.0	256/318/360	105	310	9	16	19%	7%	92	+0.5
✕Dilson Herrera 2014 · A	20	43→53	45→50	49→50	40	216/266/341	125	290	12	11	29%	6%	70	-0.8	248/298/380	132	312	13	13	24%	6%	91	+0.6	254/305/388	134	310	14	13	22%	6%	92	+0.7
✕Cody Freeman 2022 · A	21	43→53	41→50	53→50	48	209/283/307	98	259	8	11	22%	8%	70	-0.9	206/261/321	115	251	13	9	23%	6%	63	-1.3	248/292/385	137	277	15	10	16%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Juan Brito 2022 · A	20	45→48	42→50	47→45	46	221/286/323	102	285	10	12	26%	8%	74	-0.6	228/311/363	135	276	12	9	21%	10%	93	+0.8	222/308/359	137	264	13	9	20%	10%	88	+0.4
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→46	45→55	51→55	44	214/275/343	129	286	12	11	29%	7%	74	-0.5	230/293/385	155	277	18	13	23%	8%	91	+0.6	230/293/400	170	266	20	16	22%	7%	92	+0.7
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→44	41→45	56→55	44	216/286/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	206/315/327	121	297	9	23	30%	12%	86	+0.3	203/309/335	132	285	10	26	29%	12%	83	+0.1
✕Ravel Santana 2011 · A	19	43	46→50	51→55	47	216/296/344	128	273	15	16	26%	8%	83	+0.1	220/281/361	141	294	15	13	29%	7%	80	-0.1	205/253/387	182	264	22	15	31%	6%	75	-0.2
✕James Triantos 2023 · A	20	48→56	42→45	53→60	41	234/277/341	106	294	10	12	24%	5%	74	-0.6	244/290/338	94	290	7	24	18%	5%	78	-0.3	258/299/357	99	298	7	36	16%	4%	83	+0.1
✕Miguel Amaya 2019 · A	20	43→41	43→50	48→40	44	212/277/322	110	267	11	4	25%	6%	70	-0.8	210/288/334	124	267	13	4	25%	8%	78	-0.3	212/319/354	142	290	16	3	30%	10%	93	+0.3
✕Jonathan Galvez 2010 · A	19	44→48	42→45	50→55	49	212/297/322	110	288	9	12	28%	10%	78	-0.3	220/281/338	118	321	11	16	33%	7%	75	-0.5	235/283/350	115	329	10	23	30%	5%	76	-0.3
✕Jeferson Quero 2023 · A	20	46→45	44→50	49→45	41	225/274/342	117	290	12	9	26%	6%	73	-0.6	226/282/358	132	276	15	7	23%	7%	80	-0.1	215/277/344	129	257	16	4	23%	7%	73	-0.4
●Alonzo Harris 2009 · A	20	44→52	45→50	49→60	40	221/275/344	123	294	13	11	29%	6%	74	-0.5	208/247/309	101	281	10	12	29%	4%	55	-2.0	235/291/381	146	283	16	35	22%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Daniel Robertson 2013 · A	19	45→54	46→45	52→40	49	225/297/363	139	266	12	6	20%	8%	87	+0.4	237/302/348	111	297	9	3	22%	7%	85	+0.2	232/336/343	111	304	11	4	25%	11%	96	+0.6
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	43→48	38→50	49→40	44	204/275/284	80	281	6	6	28%	7%	61	-1.5	210/273/293	83	267	6	4	22%	7%	62	-1.4	237/296/380	143	283	15	2	21%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Harry Ford 2022 · A	19	45→48	46→45	52→55	43	221/287/358	137	309	13	9	31%	8%	82	+0.0	212/317/339	127	293	12	16	29%	11%	90	+0.6	205/315/325	120	278	12	21	28%	12%	83	+0.1
✕Adan Velazquez 2010 · A	20	44→52	43→45	54→50	43	215/277/331	116	278	9	11	25%	6%	72	-0.7	207/259/299	92	291	6	10	29%	5%	58	-1.7	232/277/328	96	293	7	7	23%	5%	68	-0.4
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2013 · A	20	50	40→45	51→50	44	234/303/337	103	302	5	13	23%	6%	83	+0.1	213/264/311	98	288	6	9	27%	5%	62	-1.4	195/238/286	91	273	8	8	31%	4%	44	-0.9
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	50→52	39→40	54→50	56	234/323/325	91	290	6	14	20%	11%	88	+0.4	239/315/327	88	307	7	14	23%	8%	86	+0.3	239/316/323	84	307	7	14	23%	8%	82	+0.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps