Billy Carlson — OGILVIE

Billy CarlsonSS Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 20 R/R 6'1" / 185 lbs A HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION177 act + 143 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .296 / .328

PA143

HR2

K%31

BB%8

BABIP313

ISO109

MLB%4%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 49 / POW 49

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT49

scouting grade only

POWER49

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

DEFENSE69

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.4	$14M	+$14M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.6	$14M	+$14M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.7	$14M	+$13M
2033	Arb-1	$6M	+2.7	$13M	+$10M
2034	Arb-2	$9M	+2.6	$11M	+$8M
2035	Arb-3	$12M	+2.4	$10M	+$5M
Totals		$29M		$76M	+$63M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A	CWS	—	177	154	32	8	1	0	17	64	4	8	2	208	303	273	576	65	352	36	10	260	57	-9	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
YTD	20	A	CWS	—	177	144	37	10	1	0	27	45	4	8	2	257	389	340	729	83	370	25	15	338	117	+3	+1	+0	+2	+5	1.1
ROS	20	A	CWS	4%	143	128	28	6	1	2	12	44	2	4	1	219	296	328	624	109	306	31	8	279	72	-5	+0	+2	+2	+4	0.3
ROS	20	MLB	CWS	4%	6	5	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	200	333	200	533		307	33	17	269	64	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	20	A	CWS	—	183	159	33	8	1	0	18	66	4	8	2	208	304	270	574	63	351	36	10	260	57	-9	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
TOT	20	A	CWS	—	320	282	60	14	2	2	29	108	6	12	3	213	300	298	598	85	333	34	9	268	64	-13	+1	+2	+3	+9	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	CWS	45%	459	409	90	18	3	7	40	135	7	10	2	220	300	330	631	110	305	29	9	287	78	-12	+1	+5	+5	+13	1.3
2028	22	MLB	CWS	62%	525	467	105	21	3	10	46	151	7	11	3	225	304	347	651	122	305	29	9	293	83	-10	+1	+6	+6	+15	1.8
2029	23	MLB	CWS	68%	568	505	115	23	3	12	50	160	8	12	3	228	307	356	664	129	305	28	9	298	86	-9	+1	+7	+6	+16	2.1
2030	24	MLB	CWS	70%	596	530	121	24	3	13	53	167	8	13	3	228	308	358	666	130	306	28	9	301	88	-8	+1	+7	+6	+17	2.4
2031	25	MLB	CWS	70%	614	545	127	25	4	14	55	172	9	13	3	233	314	371	684	138	306	28	9	302	90	-7	+1	+7	+7	+17	2.6
2032	26	MLB	CWS	71%	626	556	128	25	4	14	56	175	9	14	3	230	311	365	676	135	306	28	9	303	90	-7	+2	+7	+7	+18	2.7
2033	27	MLB	CWS	69%	629	558	128	25	4	14	57	176	9	14	3	229	311	364	675	134	306	28	9	304	90	-7	+2	+7	+7	+18	2.7
2034	28	MLB	CWS	69%	626	555	127	25	3	14	57	176	9	13	3	229	311	360	671	132	305	28	9	303	90	-7	+1	+7	+7	+18	2.6
2035	29	MLB	CWS	73%	617	546	123	24	3	13	57	175	9	13	3	225	309	352	660	126	305	28	9	301	88	-8	+1	+6	+7	+17	2.4
2036	30	MLB	CWS	76%	607	538	121	24	3	13	56	174	8	12	3	225	307	353	660	128	304	29	9	298	86	-9	+1	+5	+7	+17	2.1
2037	31	MLB	CWS	78%	594	526	117	23	3	12	55	172	8	11	3	222	306	346	652	124	302	29	9	294	84	-11	+1	+4	+6	+17	1.8
2038	32	MLB	CWS	79%	576	510	111	21	3	11	53	169	8	11	2	218	301	335	637	118	299	29	9	289	79	-13	+1	+3	+6	+16	1.4
2039	33	MLB	CWS	80%	546	484	103	19	3	10	50	163	7	10	2	213	296	326	622	114	295	30	9	283	74	-16	+1	+2	+6	+15	0.9
2040	34	MLB	CWS	75%	498	444	91	16	2	9	45	152	6	8	2	205	287	311	598	106	289	31	9	274	68	-18	+1	+1	+5	+14	0.3
2027	21	MLB	CWS	45%	206	183	40	8	1	3	18	61	3	4	1	219	299	322	621	104	306	30	9	277	70	-7	+0	+2	+2	+6	0.4
2028	22	MLB	CWS	62%	323	287	65	13	2	6	28	93	5	7	2	226	306	348	655	122	306	29	9	284	76	-9	+1	+4	+3	+9	0.8
2029	23	MLB	CWS	68%	388	346	79	16	2	8	34	110	5	8	2	228	306	355	662	127	306	28	9	289	79	-9	+1	+5	+4	+11	1.2
2030	24	MLB	CWS	70%	415	369	85	17	2	9	37	116	6	9	2	230	311	360	671	130	307	28	9	292	82	-9	+1	+5	+4	+12	1.4
2031	25	MLB	CWS	70%	432	385	89	18	2	10	38	121	6	9	2	231	310	366	676	135	307	28	9	293	83	-8	+1	+5	+5	+12	1.5
2032	26	MLB	CWS	71%	442	394	90	18	2	10	39	124	6	10	2	228	308	360	668	132	307	28	9	294	83	-8	+1	+5	+5	+13	1.6
2033	27	MLB	CWS	69%	436	388	89	18	2	10	39	122	6	9	2	229	309	363	673	134	307	28	9	294	83	-8	+1	+5	+5	+12	1.5
2034	28	MLB	CWS	69%	430	382	87	17	2	10	39	121	6	9	2	228	309	361	670	134	306	28	9	294	83	-8	+1	+5	+5	+12	1.4
2035	29	MLB	CWS	73%	450	400	91	18	2	10	41	128	6	9	2	228	309	357	666	130	306	28	9	292	82	-9	+1	+4	+5	+13	1.4
2036	30	MLB	CWS	76%	460	409	92	18	2	10	42	132	6	9	2	225	306	352	658	127	305	29	9	289	80	-11	+1	+4	+5	+13	1.2
2037	31	MLB	CWS	78%	462	411	91	18	2	10	42	134	6	9	2	221	303	348	651	127	303	29	9	286	77	-12	+1	+3	+5	+13	1.0
2038	32	MLB	CWS	79%	455	404	88	17	2	9	42	133	6	8	2	218	301	337	638	119	300	29	9	280	73	-14	+1	+3	+5	+13	0.7
2039	33	MLB	CWS	80%	437	388	83	16	2	8	40	130	6	8	2	214	297	327	625	113	295	30	9	274	68	-16	+1	+2	+5	+12	0.4
2040	34	MLB	CWS	75%	376	334	70	13	2	7	34	115	5	6	1	210	292	323	616	114	290	31	9	266	62	-16	+1	+1	+4	+11	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5718	5085	1140	225	27	120	514	1642	78	114	26	224	305	350	655	126	304	29	9	287	77	-145	+12	+51	+61	+162	14.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	130	26	3	14	58	187	9	13	3	225	305	353	658	128	305	29	9	287	77	-17	+1	+6	+7	+18	1.6
Career	—			—	8224	7301	1635	319	45	168	742	2361	114	169	39	224	305	349	654	125	305	29	9	295	84	-147	+18	+76	+88	+233	27.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	129	25	4	13	59	187	9	13	3	224	305	348	654	125	305	29	9	295	84	-12	+1	+6	+7	+18	2.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Ingelast yr '13 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,617 PA	13	5,617	152	45	233	301	384	+26	+73	19.8	20.5
	/162	664	18	5	233	301	384	+3.1	+8.6	2.3	pk7: 21
#2Alcides Escobarlast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,178 PA	12	6,178	45	178	258	295	345	+66	+92	19.3	18.2
	/162	664	5	19	258	295	345	+7.1	+9.9	2.1	pk7: 17
#3Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
	/162	664	17	9	246	292	387	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
#4Clint Barmeslast yr '15 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,100 PA	11	4,100	89	43	245	294	379	+34	+76	16.8	16.2
	/162	664	14	7	245	294	379	+5.4	+12.4	2.7	pk7: 16
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	5,724	117	116	225	303	350	+59	+77	12.5	10.6
	/162	664	14	13	225	303	350	+6.8	+9.0	1.5	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Billy Carlson (OGILVIE)	20	39→49	37→49	55→54	60	213/300/298	85	333	2	12	34%	9%	64	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Blaze Alexander 2019 · A	20	48	42→45	52→50	43	226/288/345	119	321	8	10	30%	7%	76	+0.1	200/266/306	106	300	10	11	34%	7%	57	-1.2	237/319/364	126	339	12	15	31%	8%	92	+0.8
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→45	45→55	51→55	44	215/274/342	127	287	12	11	29%	7%	70	-0.3	231/293/393	162	278	19	13	24%	7%	92	+1.2	232/295/411	179	268	22	16	22%	7%	94	+1.3
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	46→55	42→45	49→50	46	224/285/337	113	288	9	9	25%	8%	72	-0.2	235/300/339	104	298	6	12	22%	8%	80	+0.4	254/315/362	108	309	9	16	20%	7%	88	+0.7
✕Hao-Yu Lee 2023 · A	20	48→47	45→55	48→55	46	233/305/357	125	310	12	12	27%	8%	87	+0.8	242/305/384	142	306	15	16	25%	7%	94	+1.3	248/306/416	169	299	18	16	23%	6%	100	+1.2
✕Juan Brito 2022 · A	20	45→49	42→50	47→45	45	219/283/320	101	283	10	12	26%	7%	68	-0.5	232/313/374	142	284	14	9	22%	10%	95	+1.4	227/311/374	147	272	15	9	21%	10%	92	+1.1
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→46	41→45	56→55	43	214/285/313	99	288	7	14	27%	7%	68	-0.5	203/314/320	117	299	9	23	31%	12%	83	+0.6	201/310/335	134	289	10	26	30%	12%	81	+0.3
✕James Triantos 2023 · A	20	49→56	43→45	52→60	41	238/280/347	109	301	10	12	24%	5%	72	-0.2	245/290/342	97	292	8	24	18%	5%	76	+0.0	263/301/369	107	303	9	35	16%	4%	85	+0.5
✕Jeferson Quero 2023 · A	20	44→42	44→50	49→45	41	219/269/335	116	284	12	9	27%	6%	66	-0.6	226/283/364	138	283	16	7	25%	7%	79	+0.3	225/289/370	145	269	18	4	23%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Adan Velazquez 2010 · A	20	44→52	43→45	54→50	43	215/277/331	116	278	9	11	25%	6%	69	-0.4	210/261/303	93	295	7	10	30%	5%	54	-1.4	248/287/342	94	301	8	6	20%	4%	71	-0.2
✕Jonathan Galvez 2010 · A	19	44→46	42→50	50→55	49	212/297/322	110	288	9	12	28%	10%	75	-0.0	215/276/339	124	320	12	16	34%	7%	70	-0.3	230/282/341	111	315	10	15	29%	6%	69	-0.3
●Alonzo Harris 2009 · A	20	44→52	45→55	49→60	40	221/275/344	123	294	13	11	29%	6%	71	-0.3	209/247/311	102	282	10	12	29%	4%	50	-1.8	235/290/392	157	281	18	35	23%	7%	87	+0.7
✕Evan Van Hoosier 2015 · A	21	48→49	43→50	56→50	45	232/286/358	126	292	9	10	23%	6%	79	+0.3	228/273/336	108	306	6	9	26%	5%	66	-0.6	227/270/341	114	317	5	10	29%	4%	64	-0.3
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	43→47	39→55	49→30	44	205/276/287	82	282	6	6	28%	7%	56	-1.3	210/273/295	85	266	7	4	22%	7%	57	-1.2	231/286/395	164	298	21	0	29%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Juan Mora 2021 · A	21	43	42→45	53→55	49	209/289/317	108	255	9	14	21%	8%	71	-0.3	228/292/345	117	310	10	10	28%	6%	79	+0.3	224/280/333	110	298	10	8	27%	5%	68	-0.2
●Dilson Herrera 2013 · A	19	44→54	43→50	51→50	43	214/269/331	117	274	9	13	25%	6%	65	-0.7	241/291/379	138	314	14	12	26%	6%	86	+0.8	258/308/400	143	315	15	13	23%	6%	96	+1.3
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2021 · A	20	41→48	42→55	52→55	41	203/255/306	103	257	10	13	25%	5%	53	-1.5	230/269/385	155	293	16	19	27%	4%	79	+0.3	247/287/396	150	298	15	20	22%	4%	88	+0.7
●Cody Freeman 2022 · A	21	43→53	41→50	53→50	47	208/281/306	98	256	9	11	22%	7%	64	-0.8	203/257/317	114	247	12	9	23%	6%	56	-1.3	233/276/386	153	263	18	9	19%	5%	80	+0.3
✕Victor Bericoto 2022 · A	20	47→45	41→50	50→40	45	222/292/322	99	327	8	9	32%	8%	72	-0.2	218/270/344	126	304	15	3	32%	6%	69	-0.4	229/275/343	114	303	14	4	28%	5%	67	-0.4
●Royce Lewis 2019 · A	20	47→49	42→60	53→50	44	231/283/337	106	284	10	17	22%	6%	72	-0.2	205/251/302	97	288	8	15	30%	5%	50	-1.8	261/322/478	218	301	31	14	24%	8%	123	+1.6
✕Jacob Amaya 2019 · A	20	49→46	39→45	48→45	52	231/310/318	87	306	7	11	25%	10%	79	+0.3	214/286/318	104	281	8	6	25%	9%	69	-0.4	210/281/328	118	268	13	6	25%	8%	68	-0.4