Billy Carlson

SS Kannapolis Cannon Ballers
Age 21 R/R 6'1" / 185 lbs A HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP45OGV rank#107ETA2028MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202620ACWS257.256/.391/.33801372—.219/.324/.288
2027PROJ10% MLB21MLBCWS15.216/.299/.31900760.0
2028PROJ53% MLB22MLBCWS106.220/.303/.33422810.2
2029PROJ68% MLB23MLBCWS197.224/.306/.34544850.6
Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$4M2034Arb-2$6M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
Whiff%82
BB%79
Z-Con%76
Speed75
Chase%66
wOBA59
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 77%
CompsCody Freeman (age 21) · Agustín Ramírez (age 21) · Cayden Wallace (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†76
AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .299 / .319
PA15
HR0
K%27
BB%7
BABIP290
ISO71
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: +0.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +1.6 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+2FLDPOS: +1.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +3.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.40+0.4WAR
0.00.91.80.00.20.60.91.21.31.31.10.927282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$39M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.9$3M+$2M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.2$7M+$7M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.3$7M+$7M
2033Arb-1$4M+1.3$7M+$4M
2034Arb-2$6M+1.1$5M+$2M
2035Arb-3$8M+0.9$2M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $13M $31M +$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202620 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers — 257207 531320 41585 132 256391338729 82351 2316 337 72 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202620 A MLEKannapolis Cannon Ballers — 257219 481120 29795 132 219324288612 68322 3111 274 72 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEKannapolis Cannon Ballers — 257219 481120 29795 132 219324288612 68338 3111 274 72 — — — — — —
202620 A RAWKannapolis Cannon Ballers — 257207 531320 41585 132 256391338729 82351 2316 337 72 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEKannapolis Cannon Ballers — 257221 481120 29795 132 217324285609 68322 3111 274 72 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202620 A MLEKannapolis Cannon Ballers — 257221 481120 29795 132 217324285609 68322 3111 274 72 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLECWS 10% 367326 701335 34994 82 215298317616 103289 279 281 76 -10 +1 +4 +4 +8 0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202721 MLB CTXCWS 10% 1514 3100 140 00 216299319618 104290 277 282 76 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLECWS 53% 199176 38713 19532 41 219302332634 112290 2710 288 81 -4 +0 +2 +2 +4 0.5
202923 MLB MLECWS 68% 291259 571125 27763 61 223306343649 120291 269 294 85 -5 +1 +4 +3 +6 0.9
203024 MLB MLECWS 71% 364323 721427 34944 82 226308352660 126292 269 298 88 -5 +1 +5 +4 +8 1.3
203125 MLB MLECWS 72% 403357 821539 381035 92 228310359668 131293 269 301 90 -5 +1 +6 +4 +9 1.6
203226 MLB MLECWS 73% 426378 8716310 401095 92 229311363674 134292 269 303 91 -4 +1 +7 +5 +9 1.8
203327 MLB MLECWS 72% 434385 8816310 411115 92 228310361670 133292 269 302 90 -5 +1 +7 +5 +9 1.7
203428 MLB MLECWS 71% 434385 871639 411125 82 226308356664 130291 269 299 89 -6 +1 +6 +5 +9 1.6
203529 MLB MLECWS 69% 425378 851639 401114 82 224305350655 126290 269 296 86 -7 +1 +5 +5 +9 1.3
203630 MLB MLECWS 68% 413368 811528 381094 72 221302343644 122288 269 291 83 -8 +1 +5 +4 +9 1.1
203731 MLB MLECWS 68% 397354 761427 361074 62 217297333630 116286 279 286 79 -10 +0 +4 +4 +9 0.7
203832 MLB MLECWS 73% 375335 721327 341023 53 212291321612 109282 279 278 75 -11 -0 +3 +4 +8 0.3
202822 MLB CTXCWS 53% 10694 21412 10281 21 220303334637 114291 269 289 81 -2 +0 +1 +1 +2 0.2
202923 MLB CTXCWS 68% 197175 39714 18522 41 224306345652 122292 269 295 85 -4 +0 +3 +2 +4 0.6
203024 MLB CTXCWS 71% 258229 521025 24673 61 227309355663 128293 269 299 88 -4 +1 +4 +3 +6 0.9
203125 MLB CTXCWS 72% 291259 591126 27753 61 229310361672 132293 269 302 90 -3 +1 +5 +3 +6 1.2
203226 MLB CTXCWS 73% 310274 631227 29794 71 230311366677 136293 259 304 91 -3 +1 +5 +3 +7 1.3
203327 MLB CTXCWS 72% 311276 631227 29803 71 229310363674 134293 269 303 90 -4 +1 +5 +3 +7 1.3
203428 MLB CTXCWS 71% 308273 631227 29803 61 227308359667 132292 269 301 89 -4 +1 +4 +3 +7 1.1
203529 MLB CTXCWS 69% 294262 591126 27773 51 225306353658 128291 269 297 86 -5 +1 +4 +3 +6 0.9
203630 MLB CTXCWS 68% 282251 561026 26753 51 222302345648 123289 279 293 83 -6 +1 +3 +3 +6 0.7
203731 MLB CTXCWS 68% 269239 521015 25723 42 218298336633 118286 279 287 79 -7 +0 +2 +3 +6 0.5
203832 MLB CTXCWS 73% 273243 521015 25753 43 213292323615 111283 279 279 75 -8 -0 +2 +3 +6 0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 28992575 5791091860 26976031 5614 225306351657 126293 269 296 85 -49 +6 +38 +31 +63 9.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650577 12924413 601707 133 224304347650 123292 269 296 85 -11 +1 +8 +7 +14 2.0
Career— MLE — 45694051 9011692986 431120751 9524 222305342647 120293 269 293 85 -75 +8 +56 +46 +93 13.0
/ 162G— MLE — 650576 12824412 611727 143 222304340644 118294 269 293 85 -11 +1 +8 +7 +14 2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 257 PAwOBA .332 → .274 (−58)K% 22.6% → 30.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.57%÷1.000×1.360——30.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.95%÷1.000×0.690—×1.03011.34%
HBP% /PA1.95%—×0.780—×1.0301.56%
Singles /BIP25.50%÷1.000×0.920×0.993×1.03023.99%
Doubles /BIP8.72%÷1.000×0.830×0.993×1.0307.40%
Triples /BIP1.34%÷1.000×0.910×0.993×1.0301.25%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0300.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .332 → .274; ISO .082 → .069; BABIP .351 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).