Billy Carlson — OGILVIE

Billy CarlsonSS Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 20 R/R 6'1" / 185 lbs A BB +6%HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 4.2 · 2033

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .287 / .344

PA260

HR6

SB7

K%30

BB%8

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

25↗50

PWR

30↗48

SPD

55↘54

FLD

45↗69

EYE

60→60

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.7peak

2033

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+3.5	$32M	+$31M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+3.9	$36M	+$35M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+4.1	$39M	+$38M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+4.2	$41M	+$33M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$14M	+4.2	$43M	+$29M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$19M	+3.9	$41M	+$21M
Totals		$44M		$231M	+$187M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	20	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	80	70	13	2	1	0	8	28	1	3	0	.186	.278	.243	.521	.057	.310	35	10	.244	45	-5	+1	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
ROS	20	MLB	CWS	180	160	34	6	1	4	16	56	2	4	1	.212	.292	.338	.630	.125	.294	31	9	.281	73	-5	+0	+1	+2	+5	0.3
TOT	20	MLB	CWS	260	230	47	8	2	4	24	84	3	7	1	.204	.288	.309	.597	.104	.301	32	9	.269	64	-10	+1	+1	+3	+7	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	21	MLB 32%	CWS	270	237	54	9	2	7	28	65	3	6	1	.228	.317	.371	.688	.143	.281	24	10	.309	94	-2	+1	+2	+3	+8	1.2
2028	22	MLB 57%	CWS	424	371	87	15	3	12	45	99	5	10	2	.235	.325	.388	.714	.154	.282	23	11	.315	100	-0	+1	+3	+5	+12	2.1
2029	23	MLB 86%	CWS	524	457	108	19	4	15	56	120	6	12	2	.236	.328	.394	.721	.158	.283	23	11	.321	104	+2	+2	+4	+6	+15	2.9
2030	24	MLB	CWS	589	513	122	21	4	18	64	133	7	13	2	.238	.330	.400	.730	.162	.283	23	11	.325	107	+5	+2	+5	+6	+17	3.5
2031	25	MLB	CWS	631	549	131	22	5	19	70	142	7	14	2	.239	.332	.401	.733	.162	.284	23	11	.328	109	+7	+2	+5	+7	+18	3.9
2032	26	MLB	CWS	659	573	136	23	5	20	74	148	7	14	2	.237	.332	.400	.731	.162	.285	22	11	.330	110	+8	+2	+5	+7	+19	4.1
2033	27	MLB	CWS	672	582	140	24	5	21	77	152	8	14	2	.241	.337	.407	.745	.167	.285	23	11	.330	111	+8	+2	+5	+7	+19	4.2
2034	28	MLB	CWS	676	585	140	24	5	21	78	154	8	14	1	.239	.337	.405	.742	.166	.284	23	12	.329	110	+7	+2	+5	+7	+19	4.2
2035	29	MLB	CWS	671	582	137	23	5	20	77	155	7	13	1	.235	.332	.395	.727	.160	.283	23	11	.327	108	+6	+2	+4	+7	+19	3.9
2036	30	MLB	CWS	664	575	134	23	4	20	77	155	7	13	0	.233	.331	.391	.722	.158	.282	23	12	.323	106	+4	+3	+3	+7	+19	3.7
2037	31	MLB	CWS	653	566	130	22	4	19	75	155	7	12	0	.230	.327	.383	.711	.154	.280	24	11	.320	103	+2	+2	+2	+7	+19	3.3
2038	32	MLB	CWS	636	551	125	21	4	18	73	155	7	11	0	.227	.325	.377	.702	.151	.279	24	11	.315	99	-1	+2	+1	+7	+18	2.8
2039	33	MLB	CWS	607	526	117	19	4	16	70	152	6	10	0	.222	.321	.365	.686	.143	.277	25	12	.310	95	-3	+2	+1	+7	+17	2.3
2040	34	MLB	CWS	559	484	104	17	3	14	64	145	6	10	0	.215	.314	.349	.663	.134	.276	26	11	.303	90	-6	+2	-1	+6	+16	1.7
2041	35	MLB	CWS	501	434	92	15	3	12	57	135	5	9	0	.212	.310	.343	.654	.131	.273	27	11	.295	84	-9	+2	-2	+5	+14	1.1
2042	36	MLB	CWS	440	384	79	12	3	10	49	123	4	8	0	.206	.302	.331	.633	.125	.270	28	11	.287	77	-11	+2	-3	+5	+12	0.5
2043	37	MLB	CWS	374	327	64	10	2	7	41	108	3	7	0	.196	.291	.303	.594	.107	.267	29	11	.277	70	-13	+1	-4	+4	+11	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			9730	8456	1934	325	66	273	1091	2352	105	194	16	.229	.324	.380	.704	.151	.283	24	11	.316	100	-2	+32	+37	+104	+276	45.7
/ 162G	—			650	565	129	22	4	18	73	157	7	13	1	.228	.324	.377	.701	.149	.282	24	11	.316	100	-0	+2	+2	+7	+18	3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Billy Carlson (OGILVIE)	20	25→50	30→48	55→54	60	.214/.287/.344	.130	.292	6	5	30%	8%	77	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Derek Norris 2009 · A	20	40→50	42→55	49→50	43	.194/.269/.300	.106	.295	9	6	35%	9%	58	-1.2	.209/.301/.372	.163	.281	20	6	31%	11%	91	+1.1	.254/.332/.403	.149	.311	15	5	22%	10%	106	+1.6
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	41→51	47→60	46→45	46	.210/.298/.347	.138	.263	15	10	26%	8%	83	+0.6	.215/.301/.412	.197	.284	25	6	32%	9%	101	+1.8	.261/.318/.433	.172	.316	21	10	23%	6%	110	+1.8
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→45	45→55	50	43	.213/.273/.339	.126	.289	12	10	30%	7%	69	-0.4	.229/.292/.389	.160	.276	19	13	24%	8%	90	+1.0	.230/.293/.405	.176	.264	22	16	22%	7%	92	+1.1
✕Hao-Yu Lee 2023 · A	20	48→44	45→50	48→55	46	.232/.304/.355	.124	.309	12	12	28%	8%	86	+0.8	.239/.303/.370	.131	.306	13	16	25%	7%	89	+1.0	.238/.303/.382	.143	.296	14	19	24%	7%	90	+0.7
●Jonathan India 2019 · A	22	43→51	45→50	51→50	45	.208/.290/.333	.125	.296	12	10	32%	8%	76	+0.0	.217/.304/.340	.123	.297	12	10	29%	9%	83	+0.6	.243/.342/.393	.150	.294	17	11	22%	10%	107	+1.9
●Alonzo Harris 2009 · A	20	44→50	45→55	50→60	40	.221/.276/.342	.121	.296	13	11	29%	6%	71	-0.3	.205/.243/.307	.102	.275	11	12	29%	4%	46	-2.0	.240/.296/.401	.161	.286	19	35	22%	7%	92	+0.9
●Dilson Herrera 2014 · A	20	43→53	45→50	49→50	40	.213/.264/.339	.126	.281	12	11	28%	6%	65	-0.7	.248/.297/.383	.135	.313	14	13	24%	6%	90	+1.0	.257/.307/.397	.140	.313	15	13	22%	6%	94	+1.2
●Trevor Story 2013 · A	20	40→50	46→65	53→55	41	.204/.264/.340	.136	.276	13	11	30%	7%	66	-0.6	.192/.252/.330	.138	.298	14	15	38%	7%	58	-1.2	.270/.336/.500	.231	.327	29	25	26%	8%	134	+3.6
✕Ravel Santana 2011 · A	19	43	46→50	51→55	47	.214/.294/.340	.125	.274	14	15	26%	8%	79	+0.3	.220/.281/.362	.142	.292	16	13	29%	7%	79	+0.3	.205/.253/.387	.182	.264	22	15	31%	6%	72	-0.1
●Sean Rodríguez 2006 · A	21	43→49	45→60	49→50	53	.215/.299/.346	.130	.255	12	15	21%	10%	82	+0.5	.228/.299/.394	.166	.292	19	11	28%	7%	95	+1.4	.238/.311/.439	.201	.293	25	12	27%	7%	107	+1.7
●Royce Lewis 2019 · A	20	48→49	43→60	53→50	45	.233/.286/.344	.111	.281	10	17	21%	6%	76	+0.0	.207/.254/.310	.103	.281	9	15	28%	5%	53	-1.5	.261/.323/.483	.222	.300	31	14	24%	8%	123	+1.6
●Vaughn Grissom 2021 · A	20	44→54	39→50	51→55	44	.214/.271/.302	.088	.272	7	6	23%	6%	58	-1.2	.265/.329/.388	.123	.318	11	15	19%	7%	105	+2.1	.283/.348/.417	.134	.334	12	17	18%	7%	116	+2.4
●Brett Lawrie 2010 · AA	20	46→56	45→55	47→55	44	.228/.280/.353	.125	.279	13	12	23%	6%	75	-0.0	.252/.301/.407	.155	.311	13	18	22%	6%	98	+1.6	.264/.316/.431	.166	.317	14	20	20%	6%	106	+2.0
✕Blaze Alexander 2019 · A	20	48	42→50	52→50	43	.226/.287/.342	.117	.320	8	10	30%	7%	76	+0.0	.206/.274/.311	.105	.300	9	11	32%	7%	63	-0.9	.220/.308/.345	.126	.328	13	10	34%	8%	84	+0.4
●Luis Robert Jr. 2018 · A	20	48→58	43→60	52→60	46	.224/.316/.343	.119	.317	10	15	30%	9%	89	+1.0	.228/.285/.372	.144	.324	14	22	33%	5%	83	+0.6	.284/.330/.497	.213	.339	28	17	24%	5%	131	+2.8
●Colby Rasmus 2007 · A	20	45→55	46→60	54→50	42	.223/.277/.357	.134	.288	13	15	27%	6%	75	-0.0	.225/.291/.388	.163	.272	19	14	24%	8%	90	+1.0	.237/.305/.454	.217	.309	28	3	32%	8%	109	+1.8
✕Carlos Jimenez 2023 · A	20	38→41	46→50	53→55	45	.189/.278/.319	.129	.289	14	15	37%	10%	67	-0.5	.210/.289/.331	.121	.326	12	16	36%	9%	74	-0.1	.216/.296/.349	.133	.314	15	19	33%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Thomas Saggese 2022 · A	20	44→54	48→55	51→50	42	.211/.284/.355	.144	.327	16	12	38%	9%	78	+0.2	.229/.279/.381	.152	.311	17	10	31%	6%	82	+0.5	.235/.288/.373	.139	.314	16	8	29%	5%	82	+0.4
●Juan Apodaca 2006 · A	20	41→51	48→45	46→40	40	.217/.257/.353	.136	.263	17	5	25%	5%	66	-0.6	.219/.272/.323	.104	.274	12	5	24%	6%	64	-0.8	.281/.346/.393	.113	.343	10	3	20%	8%	110	+1.3
✕Noelvi Marte 2022 · A	20	45→53	50	51→55	43	.227/.286/.379	.153	.297	17	14	29%	7%	85	+0.7	.232/.294/.366	.134	.298	15	17	26%	7%	85	+0.7	.241/.288/.377	.137	.301	14	21	24%	5%	83	+0.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)