Marcus Wilson
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | AAASEA | 437 | .240/.366/.421 | 14 | 15 | 76 | — | .203/.294/.335 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAASEA | 355 | .218/.348/.464 | 16 | 14 | 72 | — | .181/.276/.355 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAABOS | 68 | .153/.265/.254 | 1 | 5 | 0 | — | .113/.191/.194 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 17 | ROK | ACL D-backs | — | 148 | 131 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 40 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 206 | 297 | 275 | 572 | 69 | 289 | 27 | 11 | 268 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | Missoula Osprey | — | 249 | 213 | 55 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 61 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 258 | 360 | 338 | 698 | 80 | 353 | 24 | 13 | 321 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A | Kane County Cougars | — | 115 | 99 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 32 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 253 | 357 | 384 | 740 | 131 | 364 | 28 | 11 | 338 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Kane County Cougars | — | 447 | 383 | 113 | 21 | 5 | 9 | 55 | 90 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 295 | 385 | 446 | 831 | 151 | 361 | 20 | 12 | 367 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Visalia Rawhide | — | 502 | 447 | 105 | 26 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 141 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 235 | 312 | 369 | 681 | 134 | 316 | 28 | 9 | 305 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 278 | 240 | 54 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 95 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 225 | 326 | 425 | 751 | 200 | 321 | 34 | 12 | 333 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 167 | 146 | 50 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 47 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 342 | 418 | 603 | 1.021 | 260 | 452 | 28 | 11 | 438 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 34 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 333 | 412 | 467 | 878 | 133 | 409 | 21 | 9 | 395 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 437 | 363 | 87 | 18 | 3 | 14 | 68 | 146 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 240 | 366 | 421 | 787 | 182 | 356 | 33 | 16 | 354 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 355 | 293 | 64 | 18 | 3 | 16 | 53 | 126 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 218 | 348 | 464 | 812 | 246 | 310 | 35 | 15 | 356 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 68 | 59 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 153 | 265 | 254 | 519 | 102 | 308 | 47 | 13 | 246 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 17 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 148 | 137 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 58 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 139 | 203 | 182 | 385 | 44 | 235 | 39 | 7 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | Missoula Osprey | — | 249 | 226 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 88 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 181 | 251 | 239 | 490 | 58 | 283 | 35 | 8 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 115 | 103 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 223 | 304 | 340 | 644 | 117 | 352 | 37 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 447 | 403 | 99 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 37 | 124 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 246 | 312 | 372 | 684 | 127 | 322 | 28 | 8 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 502 | 460 | 88 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 184 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 191 | 252 | 293 | 545 | 102 | 284 | 37 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 278 | 249 | 43 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 117 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 173 | 254 | 321 | 575 | 149 | 271 | 42 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 167 | 152 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 70 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 243 | 303 | 428 | 731 | 184 | 374 | 42 | 7 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 437 | 385 | 78 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 46 | 176 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 203 | 294 | 335 | 629 | 132 | 333 | 40 | 11 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 355 | 310 | 56 | 18 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 148 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 181 | 276 | 355 | 631 | 174 | 284 | 42 | 10 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 68 | 62 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 113 | 191 | 194 | 385 | 81 | 251 | 56 | 9 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 17 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 148 | 137 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 58 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 139 | 203 | 182 | 385 | 44 | 231 | 39 | 7 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 17 | ROK RAW | ACL D-backs | — | 148 | 131 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 40 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 206 | 297 | 275 | 572 | 69 | 289 | 27 | 11 | 268 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | Missoula Osprey | — | 249 | 226 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 88 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 181 | 251 | 239 | 490 | 58 | 288 | 35 | 8 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK RAW | Missoula Osprey | — | 249 | 213 | 55 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 61 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 258 | 360 | 338 | 698 | 80 | 353 | 24 | 13 | 321 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 115 | 103 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 223 | 304 | 340 | 644 | 117 | 367 | 37 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A RAW | Kane County Cougars | — | 115 | 99 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 32 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 253 | 357 | 384 | 740 | 131 | 364 | 28 | 11 | 338 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 447 | 403 | 99 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 37 | 124 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 246 | 312 | 372 | 684 | 127 | 331 | 28 | 8 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A RAW | Kane County Cougars | — | 447 | 383 | 113 | 21 | 5 | 9 | 55 | 90 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 295 | 385 | 446 | 831 | 151 | 361 | 20 | 12 | 367 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 502 | 460 | 88 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 184 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 191 | 252 | 293 | 545 | 102 | 293 | 37 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ RAW | Visalia Rawhide | — | 502 | 447 | 105 | 26 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 141 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 235 | 312 | 369 | 681 | 134 | 316 | 28 | 9 | 305 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 479 | 432 | 86 | 20 | 2 | 15 | 38 | 201 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 199 | 272 | 359 | 630 | 160 | 323 | 42 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 479 | 416 | 114 | 29 | 2 | 19 | 54 | 149 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 274 | 364 | 490 | 855 | 216 | 377 | 31 | 11 | 374 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 437 | 385 | 78 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 46 | 176 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 203 | 294 | 335 | 629 | 132 | 338 | 40 | 11 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA RAW | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 437 | 363 | 87 | 18 | 3 | 14 | 68 | 146 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 240 | 366 | 421 | 787 | 182 | 356 | 33 | 16 | 354 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 355 | 310 | 56 | 18 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 148 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 181 | 276 | 355 | 631 | 174 | 295 | 42 | 10 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA RAW | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 355 | 293 | 64 | 18 | 3 | 16 | 53 | 126 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 218 | 348 | 464 | 812 | 246 | 310 | 35 | 15 | 356 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 68 | 62 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 113 | 191 | 194 | 385 | 81 | 261 | 56 | 9 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA RAW | Worcester Red Sox | — | 68 | 59 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 153 | 265 | 254 | 519 | 102 | 308 | 47 | 13 | 246 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 17 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 148 | 136 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 58 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 140 | 203 | 184 | 387 | 44 | 235 | 39 | 7 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | Missoula Osprey | — | 249 | 226 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 88 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 181 | 251 | 239 | 490 | 58 | 283 | 35 | 8 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 115 | 102 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 225 | 304 | 343 | 647 | 118 | 352 | 37 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Kane County Cougars | — | 447 | 405 | 99 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 37 | 124 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 244 | 312 | 370 | 683 | 126 | 322 | 28 | 8 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 502 | 460 | 88 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 184 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 191 | 252 | 293 | 545 | 102 | 284 | 37 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 479 | 433 | 86 | 20 | 2 | 15 | 38 | 201 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 199 | 272 | 358 | 630 | 159 | 310 | 42 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 437 | 384 | 78 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 46 | 176 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 203 | 294 | 336 | 630 | 133 | 333 | 40 | 11 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 355 | 311 | 56 | 18 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 148 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 180 | 276 | 354 | 630 | 174 | 284 | 42 | 10 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 68 | 62 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 113 | 191 | 194 | 385 | 81 | 251 | 56 | 9 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2800 | 2518 | 497 | 107 | 18 | 55 | 233 | 1059 | 27 | 98 | 31 | 197 | 272 | 320 | 592 | 122 | 310 | 38 | 8 | 260 | 62 | -127 | +7 | -0 | +5 | +61 | -5.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 116 | 25 | 4 | 13 | 54 | 246 | 6 | 23 | 7 | 198 | 273 | 321 | 594 | 123 | 311 | 38 | 8 | 260 | 62 | -29 | +2 | -0 | +1 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 68 PAwOBA .240 → .168 (−73)K% 47.1% → 55.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 47.06% | ÷1.023 | ×1.200 | — | — | 55.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.24% | ÷0.986 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 9.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.52% | ÷0.996 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 17.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.309 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 7.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.905 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.008 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.58% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 99, 2B 162, 3B 81, K 105, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .240 → .168; ISO .102 → .061; BABIP .308 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAATacoma Rainiers · 355 PAwOBA .351 → .275 (−75)K% 35.5% → 41.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.49% | ÷1.020 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.93% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 10.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.17% | ÷1.013 | ×0.930 | ×0.981 | ×1.018 | 14.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.78% | ÷0.839 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×1.018 | 10.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.80% | ÷0.902 | ×0.970 | ×0.981 | ×1.018 | 1.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.58% | ÷1.144 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 5.97% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 68, 3B 80, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .351 → .275; ISO .246 → .184; BABIP .310 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAATacoma Rainiers · 437 PAwOBA .347 → .280 (−67)K% 33.4% → 40.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.41% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 40.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.56% | ÷1.045 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 10.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.92% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.96% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | ×0.979 | ×1.033 | 23.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.29% | ÷0.989 | ×0.830 | ×0.979 | ×1.033 | 7.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.38% | ÷0.977 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | ×1.033 | 1.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.45% | ÷0.970 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.81% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 98, 3B 95, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .347 → .280; ISO .182 → .140; BABIP .356 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 278 PAwOBA .327 → .250 (−77)K% 34.2% → 42.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.17% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.87% | ÷0.997 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 8.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.08% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.62% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 17.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.03% | ÷1.158 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 7.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.69% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.90% | ÷0.953 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 5.80% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 132, 3B 130, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .327 → .250; ISO .200 → .149; BABIP .321 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Salem Red Sox · 167 PAwOBA .432 → .303 (−129)K% 28.1% → 41.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.14% | ÷0.958 | ×1.420 | — | — | 41.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.78% | ÷0.968 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 7.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.60% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 0.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.29% | ÷1.003 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 26.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.12% | ÷1.070 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 8.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷0.972 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.08% | ÷1.080 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 6.72% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 101, 2B 114, 3B 94, K 92, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .432 → .303; ISO .260 → .178; BABIP .452 → .374. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Visalia Rawhide · 502 PAwOBA .300 → .241 (−59)K% 28.1% → 36.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.09% | ÷1.029 | ×1.340 | — | — | 36.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.76% | ÷1.008 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 6.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.90% | ÷0.978 | ×0.910 | ×1.005 | ×1.012 | 20.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.50% | ÷1.051 | ×0.820 | ×1.005 | ×1.012 | 6.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×1.005 | ×1.012 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.27% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 2.99% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 96, 2B 110, 3B 80, K 106, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .300 → .241; ISO .134 → .106; BABIP .316 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AKane County Cougars · 447 PAwOBA .360 → .297 (−62)K% 20.1% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.13% | ÷0.987 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.86% | ÷1.009 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 8.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.62% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.015 | 24.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.17% | ÷0.985 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×1.015 | 6.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.71% | ÷0.977 | ×0.910 | ×0.982 | ×1.015 | 1.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.07% | ÷0.899 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.78% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 95, K 97, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .360 → .297; ISO .151 → .130; BABIP .361 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AKane County Cougars · 115 PAwOBA .329 → .272 (−57)K% 27.8% → 36.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.83% | ÷1.029 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.30% | ÷0.995 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 8.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.61% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.39% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 22.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 10.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.49% | ÷1.008 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 1.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.49% | ÷0.975 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.26% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 98, 2B 100, 3B 102, K 106, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .329 → .272; ISO .131 → .107; BABIP .364 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .