Cayden Wallace

3B Harrisburg Senators
Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1264ETA2029MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202422AA/ROK2 orgs206.258/.324/.3603464—.233/.289/.312
202523AAWSH481.242/.316/.376101664—.212/.269/.324
202624AAA/AAWSH564.300/.355/.5432920100—.254/.298/.440
2027PROJMLE25MLBWSH4.237/.285/.38800880.0
2028PROJ39% MLB26MLBWSH98.237/.287/.38932890.1
2029PROJ53% MLB27MLBWSH148.236/.288/.38743890.2
Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Speed77
K%73
Whiff%69
Max EV59
Z-Con%58
BB%21
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 3.3, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 84%
CompsRyan Cordell (age 25) · Luis Santana (age 25) · Brett Harris (age 25)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†88
AVG/OBP/SLG.237 / .285 / .388
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%5
BABIP282
ISO149
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.40+0.4WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.20.20.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT45
scouting grade only
POWER40
scouting grade only
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED50
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.8M $0.9M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202220 AColumbia Fireflies — 122109 32732 12221 81 294369468837 174353 1810 371 74 — — — — — —
202321 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 140127 30513 12230 30 236302362664 126265 169 298 50 — — — — — —
202321 A+Quad Cities River Bandits — 428376 9822610 42946 156 261344431775 170319 2210 343 80 — — — — — —
202422 AAHarrisburg Senators — 185167 431003 11335 33 257322371694 114301 186 311 69 — — — — — —
202422 ROKACL Royals — 2119 5000 141 11 263333263596 333 195 284 18 — — — — — —
202523 AAHarrisburg Senators — 481426 10321310 401136 162 242316376691 134299 238 306 64 — — — — — —
202624 AAARochester Red Wings — 246224 6714111 18452 115 299357518874 219329 187 381 93 — — — — — —
202624 AAHarrisburg Senators — 318290 8716318 23502 91 300354562916 262308 167 395 106 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202220 A MLEColumbia Fireflies — 122113 25531 8321 81 221279345624 124302 267 277 74 — — — — — —
202321 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 140130 26413 9280 30 200252315567 115222 206 242 50 — — — — — —
202321 A+ MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 428386 881968 321196 156 228297370668 142295 287 286 80 — — — — — —
202422 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 185170 40902 8405 33 235290324613 88283 224 270 69 — — — — — —
202422 ROK MLEACL Royals — 2119 4000 161 11 211286211496 256 295 195 18 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 481438 931938 281396 162 212269324593 112278 296 263 64 — — — — — —
202624 AAA MLERochester Red Wings — 246229 571118 13542 115 249295410706 162290 225 305 93 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 318298 7713314 16612 91 258301463764 205278 195 325 106 — — — — — —
202220 A MLEColumbia Fireflies — 122113 25531 8321 81 221279345624 124300 267 277 74 — — — — — —
202220 A RAWColumbia Fireflies — 122109 32732 12221 81 294369468837 174353 1810 371 74 — — — — — —
202321 A+ MLE2 teams — 568516 11122610 411466 186 215281339620 124277 267 275 72 — — — — — —
202321 A+ RAW2 teams — 568503 12827713 541176 186 254334414747 159304 2110 332 72 — — — — — —
202422 AA MLE2 teams — 206190 43902 8466 44 226279305585 79285 224 262 64 — — — — — —
202422 AA RAW2 teams — 206186 481003 12376 44 258324360684 102304 186 308 64 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 481438 931938 281396 162 212269324593 112284 296 263 64 — — — — — —
202523 AA RAWHarrisburg Senators — 481426 10321310 401136 162 242316376691 134299 238 306 64 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLE2 teams — 564527 13525422 291154 206 256300444744 188287 205 316 100 — — — — — —
202624 AA RAW2 teams — 564514 15430429 41954 206 300355543898 243317 177 389 100 — — — — — —
202220 A MLEColumbia Fireflies — 122112 25531 8321 81 223279348627 125302 267 277 74 — — — — — —
202321 A+ MLE2 teams — 568516 11122610 411466 186 215281339620 124277 267 275 72 — — — — — —
202422 AA MLE2 teams — 206190 43902 8466 44 226279305585 79280 224 262 64 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 481444 931938 281396 162 209269320589 110278 296 263 64 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLE2 teams — 564526 13525422 291154 206 257300445745 188283 205 316 100 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 AA MLE2 teams — 206190 43902 8466 44 226279305585 79280 224 262 64 — — — — — —
202523 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 481444 931938 281396 162 209269320589 110278 296 263 64 — — — — — —
202624 AA MLE2 teams — 564526 13525422 291154 206 257300445745 188283 205 316 100 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLEWSH 2% 380353 8316211 20884 103 237286390676 153283 235 298 88 -5 +1 +0 +1 +8 0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXWSH 2% 44 1000 010 00 237285388674 152282 250 298 88 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLEWSH 39% 254236 551117 14592 62 237287391678 153283 236 300 89 -3 +0 +0 +1 +6 0.4
202927 MLB MLEWSH 53% 281260 621228 16653 72 237288389677 152283 236 299 89 -4 +1 +0 +1 +6 0.4
203028 MLB MLEWSH 60% 297275 651229 17703 62 235287385672 150282 246 298 88 -4 +0 -1 +1 +6 0.3
203129 MLB MLEWSH 62% 296273 631218 18703 52 233286380666 147281 246 295 86 -5 +0 -1 +1 +6 0.1
203230 MLB MLEWSH 63% 294272 621218 18702 31 231284373657 143279 246 292 84 -6 +0 -2 +1 +6 -0.0
202826 MLB CTXWSH 39% 9892 21403 5231 21 237287389676 152282 235 299 89 -1 +0 +0 +0 +2 0.1
202927 MLB CTXWSH 53% 148137 32614 9341 31 236288387675 151282 236 299 89 -2 +0 +0 +1 +3 0.2
203028 MLB CTXWSH 60% 178164 39815 10422 41 235287384671 149282 246 297 88 -3 +0 -0 +1 +4 0.2
203129 MLB CTXWSH 62% 183168 40815 11432 31 233286378664 146281 236 295 86 -3 +0 -1 +1 +4 0.1
203230 MLB CTXWSH 63% 185170 40815 11442 21 230284372656 142279 246 291 84 -4 +0 -1 +1 +4 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 792731 17234422 461868 145 235288383671 148285 236 296 82 -13 +1 -3 +3 +17 0.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650600 14128318 381537 114 235288382670 147285 246 296 82 -10 +1 -2 +2 +14 0.5
Career— MLE — 35733295 7601482489 20886138 9829 231284371655 141283 246 289 82 -25 +2 -4 +6 +35 1.4
/ 162G— MLE — 650599 13827416 381577 185 230284369653 139283 246 289 82 -10 +1 -2 +2 +14 0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 318 PAwOBA .386 → .325 (−61)K% 15.7% → 19.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.72%÷1.000×1.220——19.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.23%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9985.05%
HBP% /PA0.63%—×0.850—×0.9980.53%
Singles /BIP20.83%÷1.000×0.970×0.975×0.99819.66%
Doubles /BIP6.67%÷1.000×0.860×0.975×0.9985.58%
Triples /BIP1.25%÷1.000×0.950×0.975×0.9981.16%
Home runs /BIP7.50%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9985.84%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .386 → .325; ISO .262 → .210; BABIP .308 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 246 PAwOBA .373 → .305 (−68)K% 18.3% → 22.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.29%÷1.000×1.200——21.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.32%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0335.22%
HBP% /PA0.81%—×0.940—×1.0330.79%
Singles /BIP22.91%÷1.000×0.930×0.957×1.03321.05%
Doubles /BIP7.82%÷1.000×0.830×0.957×1.0336.42%
Triples /BIP0.56%÷1.000×0.970×0.957×1.0330.54%
Home runs /BIP6.15%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0334.44%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .373 → .305; ISO .219 → .165; BABIP .329 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 481 PAwOBA .303 → .263 (−39)K% 23.5% → 28.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.49%÷0.997×1.220——28.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.11%÷0.967×0.700—×1.0125.94%
HBP% /PA1.25%—×0.850—×1.0121.07%
Singles /BIP22.04%÷1.009×0.970×0.957×1.01220.52%
Doubles /BIP6.71%÷0.887×0.860×0.957×1.0126.30%
Triples /BIP0.96%÷0.913×0.950×0.957×1.0120.97%
Home runs /BIP3.19%÷0.963×0.780—×1.0122.62%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 102, 2B 77, 3B 83, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .303 → .263; ISO .134 → .117; BABIP .299 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 185 PAwOBA .306 → .270 (−36)K% 17.8% → 21.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.84%÷1.008×1.220——21.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.95%÷1.051×0.700—×1.0274.07%
HBP% /PA2.70%—×0.850—×1.0272.36%
Singles /BIP22.39%÷1.010×0.970×0.976×1.02721.54%
Doubles /BIP7.46%÷0.964×0.860×0.976×1.0276.67%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.915×0.950×0.976×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP2.24%÷0.990×0.780—×1.0271.81%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 93, 3B 83, K 102, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .306 → .270; ISO .114 → .097; BABIP .301 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Royals · 21 PAwOBA .277 → .195 (−81)K% 19.0% → 26.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.05%÷1.036×1.440——26.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.76%÷1.010×0.620—×0.9652.82%
HBP% /PA4.76%—×0.720—×0.9653.31%
Singles /BIP33.33%÷1.029×0.820—×0.96525.62%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.986×0.720—×0.9650.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.979×0.720—×0.9650.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.949×0.780—×0.9650.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 106, 2B 97, 3B 96, K 107, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .277 → .195; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 428 PAwOBA .336 → .286 (−50)K% 22.0% → 27.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.96%÷1.005×1.270——27.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.58%÷0.929×0.710—×1.0127.41%
HBP% /PA1.40%—×0.790—×1.0121.12%
Singles /BIP21.28%÷0.997×0.920×1.020×1.01220.26%
Doubles /BIP7.80%÷0.957×0.810×1.020×1.0126.81%
Triples /BIP2.13%÷0.908×0.850×1.020×1.0122.06%
Home runs /BIP3.55%÷1.033×0.800—×1.0122.78%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 82, K 101, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .336 → .286; ISO .170 → .140; BABIP .319 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 140 PAwOBA .292 → .242 (−50)K% 16.4% → 19.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.43%÷1.014×1.220——19.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.57%÷0.984×0.700—×1.0426.36%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.870—×1.0420.00%
Singles /BIP20.19%÷1.055×0.920×0.952×1.04217.46%
Doubles /BIP4.81%÷1.131×0.840×0.952×1.0423.54%
Triples /BIP0.96%÷1.062×0.940×0.952×1.0420.84%
Home runs /BIP2.88%÷0.872×0.800—×1.0422.76%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 111, 2B 126, 3B 112, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.

Result: wOBA .292 → .242; ISO .126 → .110; BABIP .265 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AColumbia Fireflies · 122 PAwOBA .361 → .277 (−84)K% 18.0% → 26.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.03%÷0.937×1.360——26.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.84%÷1.069×0.690—×1.0156.44%
HBP% /PA0.82%—×0.780—×1.0150.65%
Singles /BIP22.99%÷1.054×0.920×0.965×1.01519.65%
Doubles /BIP8.05%÷0.985×0.830×0.965×1.0156.63%
Triples /BIP3.45%÷0.900×0.910×0.965×1.0153.41%
Home runs /BIP2.30%÷1.140×0.800—×1.0151.64%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 111, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 87, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .361 → .277; ISO .174 → .137; BABIP .353 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).