Gavin Cecchini
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 24 | AAALas Vegas 51s | 119 | .294/.342/.468 | 2 | 1 | 82 | — | .252/.291/.405 |
| 2019 | 25 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 232 | .256/.305/.360 | 5 | 5 | 67 | — | .218/.265/.282 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA/AALAA | 365 | .259/.294/.358 | 5 | 7 | 43 | — | .219/.241/.290 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK | Kingsport Mets | — | 212 | 191 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 43 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 246 | 314 | 330 | 644 | 84 | 309 | 20 | 8 | 292 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | — | 271 | 233 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 40 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 236 | 331 | 352 | 683 | 116 | 259 | 15 | 12 | 307 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 259 | 228 | 59 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 41 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 259 | 337 | 408 | 745 | 149 | 299 | 16 | 10 | 329 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | AA | Binghamton Mets | — | 485 | 439 | 139 | 26 | 4 | 7 | 42 | 55 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 317 | 379 | 442 | 821 | 125 | 348 | 11 | 9 | 366 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 17 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 385 | 529 | 462 | 991 | 77 | 417 | 6 | 24 | 453 | 192 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | — | 499 | 446 | 145 | 27 | 2 | 8 | 48 | 55 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 325 | 391 | 448 | 839 | 123 | 357 | 11 | 10 | 372 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 70 | 61 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 295 | 368 | 459 | 827 | 164 | 315 | 11 | 10 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | New York Mets | — | 82 | 77 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 208 | 256 | 273 | 529 | 65 | 263 | 23 | 5 | 243 | 49 | -5 | -0 | -1 | +2 | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | — | 497 | 453 | 121 | 27 | 3 | 6 | 40 | 61 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 267 | 329 | 380 | 709 | 113 | 298 | 12 | 8 | 319 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | — | 119 | 109 | 32 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 294 | 342 | 468 | 810 | 174 | 326 | 13 | 6 | 351 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 156 | 139 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 32 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 245 | 305 | 331 | 636 | 86 | 284 | 21 | 8 | 281 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | INTL | Canberra Cavalry | — | 76 | 72 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 278 | 307 | 417 | 723 | 139 | 340 | 24 | 4 | 317 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 186 | 177 | 51 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 288 | 319 | 379 | 697 | 90 | 342 | 16 | 4 | 311 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 179 | 167 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 33 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 228 | 267 | 335 | 602 | 108 | 250 | 18 | 5 | 266 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 82 | 77 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 208 | 256 | 273 | 529 | 65 | 263 | 23 | 5 | 243 | 51 | -5 | -0 | -1 | +2 | +2 | -0.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | Kingsport Mets | — | 212 | 197 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 61 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 178 | 229 | 234 | 462 | 56 | 249 | 29 | 6 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A+ MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 271 | 243 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 58 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 214 | 282 | 317 | 599 | 103 | 250 | 21 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A MLE | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 259 | 238 | 52 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 54 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 218 | 271 | 349 | 619 | 130 | 262 | 21 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | AA MLE | Binghamton Mets | — | 485 | 450 | 129 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 69 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 287 | 335 | 387 | 722 | 100 | 328 | 14 | 6 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 499 | 457 | 133 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 37 | 73 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 291 | 344 | 385 | 729 | 94 | 328 | 15 | 7 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB MLE | New York Mets | — | 82 | 78 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 205 | 244 | 269 | 513 | 64 | 263 | 23 | 4 | 240 | 49 | -5 | -0 | -1 | +2 | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 497 | 464 | 108 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 83 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 233 | 281 | 317 | 598 | 84 | 275 | 17 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 119 | 111 | 28 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 252 | 291 | 405 | 696 | 153 | 286 | 17 | 4 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 156 | 142 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 265 | 282 | 547 | 63 | 250 | 23 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 186 | 181 | 44 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 243 | 259 | 315 | 574 | 72 | 298 | 19 | 2 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 179 | 170 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 194 | 222 | 265 | 486 | 71 | 222 | 22 | 3 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | Kingsport Mets | — | 212 | 197 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 61 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 178 | 229 | 234 | 462 | 56 | 248 | 29 | 6 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK RAW | Kingsport Mets | — | 212 | 191 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 43 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 246 | 314 | 330 | 644 | 84 | 309 | 20 | 8 | 292 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 530 | 480 | 104 | 25 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 112 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 217 | 278 | 333 | 612 | 117 | 263 | 21 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 530 | 461 | 114 | 27 | 5 | 8 | 57 | 81 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 247 | 334 | 380 | 714 | 132 | 279 | 15 | 11 | 318 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 502 | 466 | 134 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 71 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 288 | 336 | 386 | 722 | 99 | 329 | 14 | 6 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 502 | 452 | 144 | 27 | 4 | 7 | 46 | 56 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 319 | 384 | 442 | 826 | 124 | 350 | 11 | 9 | 369 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 569 | 519 | 150 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 43 | 83 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 289 | 343 | 382 | 725 | 92 | 331 | 15 | 8 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 569 | 507 | 163 | 32 | 3 | 9 | 55 | 63 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 321 | 388 | 450 | 838 | 128 | 352 | 11 | 10 | 370 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 579 | 542 | 125 | 25 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 102 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 231 | 277 | 312 | 589 | 81 | 276 | 18 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 579 | 530 | 137 | 29 | 3 | 7 | 44 | 80 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 258 | 319 | 364 | 683 | 106 | 293 | 14 | 8 | 308 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 119 | 111 | 28 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 252 | 291 | 405 | 696 | 153 | 292 | 17 | 4 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA RAW | Las Vegas 51s | — | 119 | 109 | 32 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 294 | 342 | 468 | 810 | 174 | 326 | 13 | 6 | 351 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 232 | 213 | 46 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 54 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 216 | 261 | 291 | 552 | 75 | 261 | 23 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 232 | 211 | 54 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 50 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 256 | 305 | 360 | 665 | 104 | 302 | 22 | 6 | 293 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 365 | 350 | 77 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 75 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 220 | 244 | 291 | 535 | 71 | 268 | 21 | 3 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 365 | 344 | 89 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 62 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 259 | 294 | 358 | 651 | 99 | 299 | 17 | 5 | 289 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | Kingsport Mets | — | 212 | 197 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 61 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 178 | 229 | 234 | 462 | 56 | 249 | 29 | 6 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 530 | 484 | 104 | 25 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 112 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 215 | 278 | 331 | 609 | 116 | 256 | 21 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 502 | 463 | 134 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 71 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 289 | 336 | 389 | 725 | 99 | 328 | 14 | 6 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 569 | 521 | 150 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 43 | 83 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 288 | 343 | 380 | 723 | 92 | 328 | 15 | 8 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 579 | 539 | 125 | 25 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 102 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 232 | 277 | 314 | 591 | 82 | 273 | 18 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 119 | 112 | 28 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 291 | 402 | 692 | 152 | 286 | 17 | 4 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 232 | 217 | 46 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 54 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 212 | 261 | 286 | 547 | 74 | 250 | 23 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 365 | 351 | 77 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 75 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 219 | 244 | 291 | 534 | 71 | 261 | 21 | 3 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 82 | 77 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 208 | 256 | 273 | 529 | 65 | 263 | 23 | 5 | 243 | 72 | -5 | -0 | -1 | +2 | +2 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 610 | 127 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 151 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 208 | 257 | 274 | 531 | 66 | 264 | 23 | 5 | 243 | 72 | -38 | -3 | -4 | +16 | +14 | -1.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3108 | 2878 | 699 | 131 | 15 | 34 | 186 | 578 | 10 | 41 | 23 | 243 | 291 | 334 | 625 | 91 | 290 | 19 | 6 | 274 | 72 | -5 | -0 | -1 | +2 | +2 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 602 | 146 | 27 | 3 | 7 | 39 | 121 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 243 | 291 | 332 | 623 | 90 | 290 | 19 | 6 | 274 | 72 | -38 | -3 | -4 | +16 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AAASalt Lake Bees · 186 PAwOBA .302 → .252 (−50)K% 15.6% → 19.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.59% | ÷0.982 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.76% | ÷1.090 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 2.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.65% | ÷1.032 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×0.992 | 21.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.81% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×0.992 | 8.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.907 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 96, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .302 → .252; ISO .090 → .073; BABIP .342 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 179 PAwOBA .263 → .211 (−52)K% 18.4% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.44% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.03% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.968 | 3.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.39% | ÷0.985 | ×0.940 | ×0.977 | ×0.968 | 20.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.24% | ÷0.947 | ×0.870 | ×0.977 | ×0.968 | 1.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.977 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.73% | ÷1.249 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 2.26% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 97, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 104, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .263 → .211; ISO .108 → .070; BABIP .250 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 156 PAwOBA .283 → .244 (−38)K% 20.5% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.51% | ÷1.083 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷0.942 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.17% | ÷1.026 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 23.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.80% | ÷0.945 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 2.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.80% | ÷1.012 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.13% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 117, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .283 → .244; ISO .086 → .070; BABIP .284 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAALas Vegas 51s · 119 PAwOBA .342 → .289 (−52)K% 12.6% → 16.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.61% | ÷0.986 | ×1.290 | — | — | 16.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.039 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 4.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.84% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.15% | ÷0.992 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 17.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.70% | ÷0.918 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 10.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷0.959 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.13% | ÷1.009 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 1.70% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 98, 2B 84, 3B 92, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .342 → .289; ISO .174 → .146; BABIP .326 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAALas Vegas 51s · 497 PAwOBA .309 → .263 (−46)K% 12.3% → 16.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.27% | ÷0.948 | ×1.290 | — | — | 16.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.85% | ÷1.015 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 5.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.40% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.68% | ÷0.994 | ×0.900 | ×1.006 | ×1.048 | 20.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.89% | ÷0.998 | ×0.810 | ×1.006 | ×1.048 | 5.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.77% | ÷1.111 | ×0.810 | ×1.006 | ×1.048 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.53% | ÷1.209 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 1.04% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 122, K 90, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .309 → .263; ISO .113 → .086; BABIP .298 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAALas Vegas 51s · 499 PAwOBA .363 → .316 (−48)K% 11.0% → 14.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.02% | ÷0.971 | ×1.290 | — | — | 14.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.62% | ÷0.962 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.050 | 7.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.62% | ÷0.994 | ×0.900 | ×1.016 | ×1.050 | 26.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.91% | ÷1.128 | ×0.810 | ×1.016 | ×1.050 | 5.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.51% | ÷0.980 | ×0.810 | ×1.016 | ×1.050 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.05% | ÷1.088 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 1.54% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 126, 3B 96, K 94, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .363 → .316; ISO .123 → .094; BABIP .357 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AABinghamton Mets · 485 PAwOBA .358 → .319 (−39)K% 11.3% → 14.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.34% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.66% | ÷0.988 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 6.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.41% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.56% | ÷1.030 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×1.042 | 25.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.77% | ÷1.034 | ×0.860 | ×0.983 | ×1.042 | 5.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.04% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.983 | ×1.042 | 1.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.82% | ÷1.088 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 1.36% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 106, 2B 107, 3B 80, K 95, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .358 → .319; ISO .125 → .106; BABIP .348 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+St. Lucie Mets · 271 PAwOBA .305 → .267 (−38)K% 14.8% → 21.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.76% | ÷0.984 | ×1.420 | — | — | 21.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.81% | ÷1.106 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.027 | 8.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.37% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.027 | 0.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.21% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×1.027 | 18.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.18% | ÷0.883 | ×0.960 | ×1.006 | ×1.027 | 5.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.006 | ×1.027 | 0.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.59% | ÷1.054 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 2.22% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 104, 2B 77, 3B 130, K 97, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .305 → .267; ISO .116 → .108; BABIP .259 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .