Taj Bradley
P
Minnesota Twins
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 1.9 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION104 act + 68 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10697vR 88
ERA4.01
FIP3.94
K%26.2%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%17.2%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 173 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8496.9
Whiff%
p6026.8%
K%
p7827.4%
xwOBA vs
p580.304
FB+3.0 (48%)
CU (9%)
CT (24%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | GCL Rays | 10 | 9 | 23 | 116 | 24 | 12 | 1 | 90% | 2.3 | 14.1% | 12.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 5.09 | 4.21 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | GCL Rays | 10 | 9 | 23 | 116 | 24 | 12 | 1 | 90% | 2.3 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 0.9% | 5.09 | 3.14 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 103 | 397 | 123 | 31 | 8 | 96% | 4.5 | 23.2% | 9.1% | 14.1% | 2.6% | 1.83 | 3.70 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 103 | 397 | 123 | 31 | 8 | 96% | 4.5 | 31.0% | 7.8% | 23.2% | 2.0% | 1.83 | 2.63 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 133 | 532 | 141 | 33 | 14 | 100% | 4.8 | 22.2% | 6.7% | 15.5% | 2.9% | 2.57 | 3.66 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 133 | 532 | 141 | 33 | 14 | 100% | 4.8 | 26.5% | 6.2% | 20.3% | 2.6% | 2.57 | 3.09 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 31 | 142 | 632 | 166 | 59 | 32 | 94% | 4.3 | 25.6% | 9.5% | 16.1% | 5.1% | 5.82 | 4.93 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 31 | 142 | 632 | 166 | 59 | 32 | 94% | 4.3 | 26.3% | 9.3% | 16.9% | 5.1% | 5.82 | 4.93 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 149 | 616 | 169 | 50 | 23 | 100% | 5.5 | 26.6% | 8.1% | 18.5% | 4.0% | 3.87 | 4.09 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 149 | 616 | 169 | 50 | 23 | 100% | 5.5 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 19.3% | 3.7% | 3.87 | 3.84 | +2.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 164 | 694 | 148 | 60 | 23 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.0% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 5.05 | 4.15 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 164 | 694 | 148 | 60 | 23 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 5.05 | 4.22 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 19 | 19 | 104 | 440 | 121 | 42 | 15 | 100% | 5.5 | 27.4% | 9.3% | 18.1% | 3.5% | 3.62 | 3.87 | +1.9 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 68 | 289 | 76 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 26.2% | 9.0% | 17.2% | 3.5% | 4.01 | 3.94 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 75 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 26.2% | 9.0% | 17.2% | 3.5% | 4.02 | 3.95 | +0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 173 | 729 | 197 | 68 | 25 | — | — | 27.0% | 9.3% | 17.7% | 3.4% | 3.78 | 3.90 | +3.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 171 | 722 | 197 | 68 | 25 | — | — | 27.2% | 9.4% | 17.8% | 3.5% | 3.82 | 3.90 | +3.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 145 | 612 | 159 | 55 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.0% | 9.0% | 17.0% | 3.5% | 4.37 | 4.34 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 147 | 620 | 161 | 56 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.0% | 9.1% | 16.9% | 3.5% | 4.37 | 4.38 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 147 | 620 | 160 | 57 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.9% | 9.2% | 16.6% | 3.6% | 4.42 | 4.46 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 140 | 592 | 150 | 56 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.3% | 9.5% | 15.8% | 3.8% | 4.54 | 4.62 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 132 | 556 | 137 | 54 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.6% | 9.8% | 14.8% | 4.0% | 4.71 | 4.83 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 145 | 612 | 159 | 55 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.0% | 9.0% | 17.0% | 3.5% | 4.38 | 4.35 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 161 | 56 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.0% | 9.1% | 16.9% | 3.5% | 4.38 | 4.39 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 160 | 57 | 23 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.9% | 9.2% | 16.6% | 3.6% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 140 | 591 | 149 | 56 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.3% | 9.5% | 15.8% | 3.8% | 4.55 | 4.63 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 132 | 557 | 137 | 55 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.6% | 9.8% | 14.8% | 4.0% | 4.72 | 4.84 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 224 | 222 | 1267 | 5363 | 1370 | 488 | 200 | 99% | 5.7 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 16.5% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 4.14 | +18.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 847 | 216 | 77 | 32 | 99% | 5.7 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 16.5% | 3.7% | 4.50 | 4.14 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 171 | 167 | 819 | 3427 | 818 | 298 | 121 | 98% | 4.8 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 15.2% | 3.5% | 3.98 | 4.12 | +12.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 41 | 200 | 837 | 200 | 73 | 30 | 98% | 4.8 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 15.2% | 3.5% | 3.98 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Taj Bradley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 3.5% | — | 4.39 | 25.9% | 16.8% | 439 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Raisel Iglesias R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.56 | 23.7% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .271 | 3.14 | 27.7% | 19.6% | 226 | -0.42 | 1.35 | 797 | 57 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.94 | 28.1% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .270 | 3.19 | 33.6% | 25.2% | 157 | -0.75 | 2.21 | 778 | 55 |
| Nick Pivetta R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.58 | 27.1% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .323 | 4.29 | 25.2% | 15.5% | 305 | +0.71 | 1.18 | 1,578 | 54 |
| Luis Castillo R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.05 | 23.3% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .278 | 3.27 | 27.1% | 17.8% | 448 | -0.78 | 2.46 | 1,817 | 54 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.27 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 4.0% | .344 | 3.87 | 23.5% | 14.9% | 261 | -0.40 | 3.80 | 651 | 54 |
| Louis Varland R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.13 | 23.4% | 7.0% | 3.9% | .309 | 3.40 | 25.6% | 18.1% | 255 | -0.73 | 1.21 | 660 | 54 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.01 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 4.6% | .287 | 5.32 | 17.0% | 8.2% | 28 | +0.31 | 5.01 | 282 | 54 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.22 | 23.0% | 7.4% | 3.9% | .262 | 3.81 | 23.2% | 14.9% | 235 | -0.41 | 3.76 | 537 | 54 |
| Nate Karns R 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.03 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 4.09 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 140 | +0.06 | 3.92 | 287 | 53 |
| Hunter Brown R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.35 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .303 | 3.16 | 27.9% | 19.1% | 221 | -0.19 | 2.84 | 773 | 53 |
| Mike Foltynewicz R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .316 | 3.67 | 23.9% | 15.8% | 351 | -0.31 | 3.17 | 938 | 53 |
| Jaime Schultz R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.53 | 25.9% | 12.9% | 1.8% | .326 | 3.89 | 28.2% | 15.6% | 126 | +0.36 | 2.14 | 391 | 53 |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.77 | 26.8% | 8.0% | 5.3% | .272 | 4.12 | 20.2% | 12.8% | 130 | -0.65 | 4.07 | 470 | 52 |
| Luis Garcia R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.82 | 24.4% | 7.3% | 3.4% | .260 | 3.41 | 26.3% | 18.6% | 44 | -0.41 | 3.28 | 535 | 52 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.58 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 4.3% | .269 | 4.73 | 15.7% | 4.1% | 181 | +0.15 | 3.50 | 395 | 52 |
| Danny Salazar R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.47 | 25.8% | 6.9% | 3.0% | .273 | 3.48 | 29.9% | 19.7% | 240 | +0.01 | 3.34 | 425 | 52 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 52 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.69 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .336 | 6.45 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.76 | 3.69 | 124 | 52 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 52 |
| Shane Smith R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.75 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 2.7% | .252 | 3.22 | 26.3% | 14.0% | 18 | -0.53 | 2.87 | 309 | 51 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 141 | 25.3% | 9.2% | 1.41 | 4.49 |
| Chris Archer ('22) | 6 | 164 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 1.21 | 4.10 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |