Taj Bradley
P
Minnesota Twins
+1.3
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 2.0 · 2027
ERA4.66
FIP4.52
xFIP3.53
SIERA3.32
K%23.0%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%14.3%
IP138
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.0peak
2027
K†6060
FB Velo
p7596.3
Whiff%
p5826.6%
K%
p8628.8%
xwOBA vs
p730.290
FB+3.0 (47%)
CU (11%)
CT (20%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | GCL Rays | 10 | 9 | 23 | 116 | 24 | 12 | 1 | 14.1% | 12.9% | 1.2% | 5.09 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 20 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 23 | 22 | 103 | 397 | 123 | 31 | 8 | 23.2% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 1.83 | 3.70 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 21 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 28 | 28 | 133 | 532 | 141 | 33 | 14 | 22.2% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 2.57 | 3.69 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 22 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 33 | 31 | 142 | 632 | 166 | 59 | 32 | 25.6% | 9.5% | 4.8% | 5.82 | 4.79 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 27 | 27 | 149 | 616 | 169 | 50 | 23 | 26.6% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 3.87 | 3.99 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 31 | 31 | 164 | 694 | 148 | 60 | 23 | 21.0% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 5.05 | 4.18 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 4 | 4 | 22 | 93 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 31.2% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 1.25 | 1.56 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 107 | 450 | 120 | 39 | 13 | 26.6% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 3.82 | 3.56 | +2.1 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 128 | 543 | 149 | 47 | 13 | 27.4% | 8.7% | 2.4% | 3.38 | 3.22 | +3.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 126 | 533 | 142 | 46 | 15 | 26.7% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 3.92 | +2.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 22 | 121 | 509 | 136 | 44 | 15 | 26.7% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 3.97 | 3.93 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 20 | 20 | 112 | 475 | 127 | 42 | 14 | 26.7% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 3.96 | 3.96 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 19 | 102 | 432 | 113 | 38 | 13 | 26.2% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.00 | 4.03 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 92 | 390 | 100 | 35 | 12 | 25.7% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.07 | 4.12 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 83 | 350 | 88 | 32 | 11 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.16 | 4.23 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 83 | 26 | 10 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.11 | 4.07 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 71 | 24 | 9 | 25.8% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.16 | 4.20 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 61 | 22 | 8 | 25.1% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.27 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 52 | 19 | 8 | 24.4% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.40 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 44 | 17 | 7 | 23.6% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 4.55 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 156 | 152 | 737 | 3080 | 727 | 265 | 104 | 23.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 3.95 | 4.04 | +10.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 41 | 200 | 836 | 197 | 72 | 28 | 23.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 3.95 | 4.04 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Taj Bradley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 24.5% | 8.7% | 3.4% | — | 3.94 | 26.7% | 18.0% | 359 | -0.47 | — | — | — |
| Justin Hancock R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 14.2% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .316 | 3.46 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 73 | -0.85 | 3.38 | 193 | 56 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 56 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.76 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 309 | -0.47 | 3.22 | 907 | 56 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 195 | 56 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 56 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.0% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 373 | 56 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 55 |
| Forrest Snow R 2027 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.10 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .263 | 4.13 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.97 | 3.03 | 406 | 55 |
| Sam Highfill R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 55 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .291 | 4.02 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.14 | 3.45 | 274 | 55 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 55 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.04 | 14.1% | 7.2% | 2.2% | .320 | 4.89 | 13.0% | 2.6% | 74 | +0.85 | 3.58 | 204 | 55 |
| Nestor Molina R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 55 |
| Wes Parsons R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.56 | 18.4% | 7.7% | 1.9% | .274 | 4.00 | 18.5% | 6.1% | 91 | +0.44 | 3.00 | 483 | 55 |
| Tanner Andrews R 2024 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.71 | 15.7% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.02 | 254 | 55 |
| Tim Atherton R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 55 |
| Jared Ruxer R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 3.4% | .301 | 6.54 | 13.8% | 5.0% | 19 | +1.85 | 3.41 | 270 | 54 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 3.2% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 433 | 54 |
| David Hale R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 54 |
| Jackson Wentworth R 2023 · 4.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.95 | 16.7% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.95 | 124 | 54 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2023
Service 2.564 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.3 | $10M | +$10M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $4M | +2.0 | $16M | +$12M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $7M | +1.9 | $16M | +$9M |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $9M | +1.7 | $15M | +$6M |
| Totals | $21M | $58M | +$37M | ||