Taj Bradley

P Minnesota Twins

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	27	27	149	3.87	3.84	27.4%	8.1%	2.8	K 26.6% · BB 8.1% · FIP 4.03
2025	24	MIX2 levels	31	31	164	5.05	4.22	21.3%	8.6%	2.3	K 20.9% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.20
2026	25	MIX2 levels	32	32	180	3.75	3.75	27.5%	10.3%	3.6	K 27.4% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.75
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIN	24	24	143	4.26	4.22	26.2%	9.6%	2.0
2028PROJ	27	MLBMIN	20	20	120	4.27	4.27	26.2%	9.7%	1.6
2029PROJ	28	MLBMIN	18	18	106	4.32	4.35	26.1%	9.8%	1.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.564First FA2030

2027Arb-1$4M2028Arb-2$6M2029Arb-3$7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo88

K%78

xwOBA vs55

Form2.61 ERA (proj 4.26) · K 29.8% (proj 26.2%) · BB 10.7% (proj 9.6%) · last 60d · 31 IP through Oct 27

CompsKevin Gausman (age 26) · Trevor Bauer (age 26) · Aaron Nola (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA4.26

FIP4.22

K%26.2%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%16.6%

Proj IP143

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 143 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$22M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p6327.4%

p7827.4%

xwOBA vs

p550.307

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.564 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$4M	+2.0	$16M	+$12M
2028	Arb-2	$6M	+1.6	$12M	+$7M
2029	Arb-3	$7M	+1.3	$9M	+$3M
Totals		$17M		$37M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	10	9	23	116	24	12	1	90%	2.3	14.1%	12.9%	1.1%	1.2%	5.09	4.21	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	10	9	23	116	24	12	1	90%	2.3	20.7%	10.3%	10.3%	0.9%	5.09	3.14	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	103	397	123	31	8	96%	4.5	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	2.6%	1.83	3.70	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	103	397	123	31	8	96%	4.5	31.0%	7.8%	23.2%	2.0%	1.83	2.63	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	133	532	141	33	14	100%	4.8	22.2%	6.7%	15.5%	2.9%	2.57	3.68	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	133	532	141	33	14	100%	4.8	26.5%	6.2%	20.3%	2.6%	2.57	3.09	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	31	142	632	166	59	32	94%	4.3	25.4%	9.0%	16.4%	5.1%	5.82	4.90	+0.8
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	31	142	632	166	59	32	94%	4.3	26.3%	9.3%	16.9%	5.1%	5.82	4.93	+0.8
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	149	616	169	50	23	100%	5.5	26.6%	8.1%	18.5%	3.9%	3.87	4.03	+2.4
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	149	616	169	50	23	100%	5.5	26.6%	8.1%	18.5%	3.9%	3.87	4.03	+2.4
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	149	616	169	50	23	100%	5.5	27.4%	8.1%	19.3%	3.7%	3.87	3.84	+2.8
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	164	694	148	60	23	100%	5.3	20.9%	8.6%	12.3%	3.2%	5.05	4.20	+2.3
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	164	694	148	60	23	100%	5.3	20.9%	8.6%	12.3%	3.2%	5.05	4.20	+2.3
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	164	694	148	60	23	100%	5.3	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	3.3%	5.05	4.22	+2.3
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	32	180	757	208	78	23	100%	5.6	27.4%	10.2%	17.2%	3.1%	3.75	3.75	+3.6
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	32	180	757	208	78	23	100%	5.6	27.4%	10.2%	17.2%	3.1%	3.75	3.75	+3.6
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	32	180	757	208	78	23	100%	5.6	27.5%	10.3%	17.2%	3.0%	3.75	3.75	+3.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			106	104	564	2391	615	218	87	98%	5.3	25.7%	9.1%	16.6%	3.6%	4.50	4.08	+8.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIN	24	24	143	604	158	58	19	100%	6.0	26.2%	9.6%	16.6%	3.2%	4.26	4.22	+2.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	120	507	133	49	16	100%	6.0	26.2%	9.7%	16.6%	3.2%	4.26	4.26	+1.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIN	18	18	106	448	117	44	15	100%	5.9	26.1%	9.8%	16.3%	3.3%	4.31	4.34	+1.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIN	16	16	94	395	101	40	14	100%	5.8	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	3.5%	4.43	4.50	+1.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIN	13	13	80	337	84	35	12	100%	6.1	24.8%	10.3%	14.5%	3.7%	4.60	4.71	+0.6
2032	31	MLB MLE	MIN	11	11	65	274	66	29	11	100%	5.9	24.0%	10.7%	13.4%	3.9%	4.81	4.94	+0.3
2033	32	MLB MLE	MIN	8	8	49	207	48	23	9	100%	6.1	23.2%	11.1%	12.2%	4.1%	5.04	5.20	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIN	20	20	120	507	133	49	16	100%	6.0	26.2%	9.7%	16.6%	3.2%	4.27	4.27	+1.6
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIN	18	18	106	448	117	44	15	100%	5.9	26.1%	9.8%	16.3%	3.3%	4.32	4.35	+1.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	94	397	101	40	14	100%	5.9	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	3.5%	4.44	4.51	+1.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	80	338	84	35	12	100%	6.2	24.8%	10.3%	14.5%	3.7%	4.61	4.72	+0.6
2032	31	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	65	274	66	29	11	100%	5.9	24.0%	10.7%	13.4%	3.9%	4.82	4.95	+0.3
2033	32	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	49	207	48	23	9	100%	6.1	23.2%	11.1%	12.2%	4.2%	5.05	5.21	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		192	190	1077	4559	1163	437	164	99%	5.6	25.5%	9.6%	15.9%	3.6%	4.51	4.14	+16.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	35	200	847	216	81	30	99%	5.6	25.5%	9.6%	15.9%	3.6%	4.51	4.14	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		184	180	895	3744	904	330	129	98%	4.9	24.1%	8.8%	15.3%	3.5%	3.97	4.07	+13.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	40	200	837	202	74	29	98%	4.9	24.1%	8.8%	15.3%	3.5%	3.97	4.07	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 21 IPFIP 4.14 → 4.07 (−0.08)K% 23.6% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.60%	—	×0.860	20.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.49%	—	×0.900	4.04%
HR / BF /BF	4.49%	÷1.253	×1.100	3.95%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).

Result: FIP 4.14 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 11 IPFIP 2.21 → 2.63 (+0.42)K% 39.5% → 33.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.47%	—	×0.860	33.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.89%	—	×0.900	7.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.061	×1.100	2.73%

Result: FIP 2.21 → 2.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAADurham Bulls · 38 IPFIP 5.63 → 5.64 (+0.01)K% 21.5% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.51%	—	×0.860	18.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.63%	—	×0.900	10.47%
HR / BF /BF	5.23%	÷1.137	×1.100	5.06%

Result: FIP 5.63 → 5.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 74 IPFIP 2.06 → 2.82 (+0.76)K% 30.9% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.88%	—	×0.810	25.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.32%	—	×1.100	6.95%
HR / BF /BF	1.40%	÷0.970	×1.200	1.74%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.06 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAADurham Bulls · 59 IPFIP 4.28 → 4.68 (+0.40)K% 21.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.46%	—	×0.880	18.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.07%	—	×1.050	6.38%
HR / BF /BF	4.05%	÷1.034	×1.100	4.31%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 4.28 → 4.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ACharleston RiverDogs · 67 IPFIP 2.25 → 3.38 (+1.13)K% 32.5% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.53%	—	×0.740	24.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.03%	—	×1.180	9.48%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷1.026	×1.300	2.04%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 2.25 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 37 IPFIP 3.13 → 4.23 (+1.11)K% 28.4% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.38%	—	×0.770	21.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.43%	—	×1.150	8.55%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷0.978	×1.250	3.45%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.13 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKGCL Rays · 23 IPFIP 3.14 → 4.21 (+1.08)K% 20.7% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.69%	—	×0.680	14.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.34%	—	×1.250	12.93%
HR / BF /BF	0.86%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.21%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.14 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Taj Bradley (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.36	26.0%	16.1%	320	+0.14	—	—	—
Kevin Gausman R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	26	SP	4.11	21.9%	8.7%	3.2%	.333	3.76	23.2%	16.8%	346	-0.35	2.34	2,103	72
Trevor Bauer R 2017 · 3.74 FIP	26	SP	3.74	26.2%	8.0%	3.4%	.333	2.96	30.2%	22.2%	461	-0.78	2.16	1,298	71
Aaron Nola R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	26	SP	3.60	26.9%	9.0%	2.9%	.287	2.66	30.0%	25.3%	457	-0.94	2.29	2,013	67
Danny Salazar R 2016 · 3.58 FIP	26	SP	3.58	27.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.303	3.34	33.0%	23.0%	103	-0.24	3.22	587	66
José Ureña R 2018 · 3.86 FIP	26	SP	3.86	18.3%	6.0%	2.8%	.262	4.78	15.5%	7.2%	209	+0.92	3.86	1,251	66
Jon Gray R 2018 · 3.66 FIP	26	SP	3.66	24.6%	6.9%	3.2%	.317	3.76	22.6%	14.4%	338	+0.10	2.93	1,345	66
Mike Foltynewicz R 2018 · 3.17 FIP	26	SP	3.17	27.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.246	4.80	18.7%	11.8%	307	+1.63	3.17	957	65
Wade Miller R 2003 · 3.77 FIP	26	SP	3.77	20.2%	9.5%	2.1%	.278	4.53	17.6%	5.6%	201	+0.76	3.43	894	64
Luis Castillo R 2019 · 3.37 FIP	26	SP	3.37	28.9%	10.1%	2.6%	.258	3.06	26.2%	18.1%	408	-0.31	2.44	1,860	64
Gerrit Cole R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	26	SP	4.12	23.1%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	2.67	36.6%	29.8%	486	-1.45	2.48	2,096	63
Jake Odorizzi R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	26	SP	4.24	21.5%	6.6%	3.9%	.268	4.11	23.7%	14.6%	467	-0.13	3.16	1,246	63
Hunter Brown R 2024 · 3.47 FIP	25	SP	3.47	25.1%	8.4%	2.6%	.303	3.26	28.0%	18.7%	293	-0.21	2.77	845	62
Logan Gilbert R 2023 · 3.72 FIP	26	SP	3.72	24.5%	4.5%	3.9%	.271	3.39	28.6%	23.1%	526	-0.33	3.04	1,156	62
Michael Wacha R 2017 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP	3.57	22.5%	7.4%	2.6%	.323	4.92	19.7%	10.9%	245	+1.35	3.05	1,828	61
Kerry Wood R 2003 · 3.45 FIP	26	SP	3.45	30.0%	11.0%	2.7%	.257	4.17	24.6%	15.7%	226	+0.72	1.77	1,371	60
Yovani Gallardo R 2012 · 3.83 FIP	26	SP	3.83	23.7%	9.1%	2.9%	.288	3.82	17.3%	9.5%	557	-0.01	2.88	1,866	60
Brady Singer R 2023 · 4.07 FIP	26	SP	4.07	18.9%	7.0%	3.1%	.324	4.10	20.9%	12.9%	506	+0.03	3.57	1,174	60
George Kirby R 2024 · 3.12 FIP	26	SP	3.12	23.0%	3.0%	2.9%	.287	3.59	22.6%	16.6%	301	+0.47	2.18	905	60
Bartolo Colon R 2000 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP	3.79	26.3%	11.6%	2.6%	.296	3.96	18.0%	10.6%	698	+0.17	3.39	3,462	60
Vince Velasquez R 2018 · 3.41 FIP	26	SP	3.41	25.6%	9.2%	2.4%	.309	4.76	25.5%	15.9%	246	+1.35	3.26	964	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.1	111	25.6%	9.6%	1.37	4.47
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Pete Richert ('62-'74, 13 WAR*)	5.8	90	24.4%*	8.8%*	1.26*	4.04*
John Henry Johnson ('78-'87, 6 WAR*)	3.0	75	24.6%*	9.6%*	1.15*	4.15*
Vince Velasquez ('15-'23, 2 WAR*)	3.8	85	21.9%*	9.2%*	1.37*	4.99*
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73
Derek Holland ('21)	7.3	113	19.7%	8.4%	1.35	4.62