Taj Bradley — OGILVIE

Taj Bradley P Minnesota Twins

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION167 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA4.06

FIP3.99

K%26.5%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%16.7%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 182 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD5055

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p6227.1%

p7827.3%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

FB+3.0 (47%)

CU (9%)

CT (24%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.564 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.6M
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$8M	+$4M
2028	Arb-3	$7M	+1.0	$7M	+$1M
2029	Arb-4	$10M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$11M		$18M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	10	9	23	116	24	12	1	90%	2.3	14.1%	12.9%	1.1%	1.2%	5.09	4.21	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	10	9	23	116	24	12	1	90%	2.3	20.7%	10.3%	10.3%	0.9%	5.09	3.14	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	103	397	123	31	8	96%	4.5	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	2.6%	1.83	3.70	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	103	397	123	31	8	96%	4.5	31.0%	7.8%	23.2%	2.0%	1.83	2.63	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	133	532	141	33	14	100%	4.8	22.2%	6.7%	15.5%	2.9%	2.57	3.68	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	133	532	141	33	14	100%	4.8	26.5%	6.2%	20.3%	2.6%	2.57	3.09	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	31	142	632	166	59	32	94%	4.3	25.3%	9.0%	16.3%	5.1%	5.82	4.92	-0.0
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	31	142	632	166	59	32	94%	4.3	25.3%	9.0%	16.3%	5.1%	5.82	4.92	-0.0
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	31	142	632	166	59	32	94%	4.3	26.3%	9.3%	16.9%	5.1%	5.82	4.93	-0.1
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	149	616	169	50	23	100%	5.5	26.6%	8.1%	18.5%	3.9%	3.87	4.03	+1.5
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	149	616	169	50	23	100%	5.5	26.6%	8.1%	18.5%	3.9%	3.87	4.03	+1.5
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	149	616	169	50	23	100%	5.5	27.4%	8.1%	19.3%	3.7%	3.87	3.84	+1.9
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	164	694	148	60	23	100%	5.3	20.8%	8.6%	12.2%	3.2%	5.05	4.20	+1.3
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	164	694	148	60	23	100%	5.3	20.8%	8.6%	12.2%	3.2%	5.05	4.20	+1.3
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	164	694	148	60	23	100%	5.3	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	3.3%	5.05	4.22	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			104	102	551	2340	600	214	87	98%	5.3	25.6%	9.1%	16.5%	3.7%	4.54	4.14	+4.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	30	30	167	706	193	74	23	100%	5.6	27.3%	10.3%	16.9%	3.3%	3.83	3.91	+2.0
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	30	30	167	706	193	74	23	100%	5.6	27.3%	10.3%	16.9%	3.3%	3.83	3.91	+2.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	MIN	1	1	2	9	3	2	0	100%	1.7	33.3%	22.2%	11.1%	0.0%	5.40	3.10	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	MIN	29	29	165	697	190	72	23	100%	5.7	27.3%	10.3%	16.9%	3.3%	3.81	3.92	+1.9
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	MIN	29	29	165	697	190	72	23	100%	5.7	27.3%	10.3%	16.9%	3.3%	3.81	3.92	+1.9
ROS	25	MLB MLE	MIN	2	2	15	62	16	6	2	100%	7.3	26.5%	9.8%	16.7%	3.4%	4.06	3.99	+0.2
ROS	25	MLB CTX	MIN	3	3	15	63	17	6	2	100%	5.0	26.5%	9.8%	16.7%	3.5%	4.07	4.00	+0.2
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	182	768	209	80	25	—	—	27.3%	10.4%	16.8%	3.3%	3.84	3.92	+2.1
FULL	25	MLB A+C	MIN	—	—	180	760	209	80	25	—	—	27.6%	10.5%	17.0%	3.3%	3.88	3.92	+2.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIN	27	27	164	695	183	68	23	100%	6.1	26.3%	9.8%	16.5%	3.4%	4.38	4.35	+1.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIN	28	28	166	701	184	69	24	100%	5.9	26.3%	9.8%	16.4%	3.4%	4.39	4.39	+1.0
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIN	28	28	166	701	183	70	25	100%	5.9	26.2%	10.0%	16.2%	3.5%	4.44	4.47	+0.8
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIN	26	26	158	669	171	68	25	100%	6.1	25.6%	10.2%	15.3%	3.7%	4.56	4.63	+0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIN	25	25	149	629	156	66	24	100%	6.0	24.9%	10.5%	14.3%	3.9%	4.73	4.84	+0.1
2032	31	MLB MLE	MIN	23	23	139	586	141	64	24	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.9%	13.2%	4.1%	4.94	5.07	-0.3
2033	32	MLB MLE	MIN	21	21	128	543	126	61	24	100%	6.1	23.3%	11.3%	12.0%	4.4%	5.17	5.33	-0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIN	27	27	164	692	182	68	24	100%	6.1	26.3%	9.8%	16.5%	3.4%	4.39	4.36	+1.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIN	28	28	166	701	184	69	24	100%	5.9	26.3%	9.8%	16.4%	3.4%	4.40	4.40	+1.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIN	28	28	166	701	183	70	25	100%	5.9	26.2%	10.0%	16.2%	3.5%	4.45	4.48	+0.8
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIN	26	26	158	667	171	68	25	100%	6.1	25.6%	10.2%	15.3%	3.7%	4.57	4.64	+0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIN	25	25	149	629	156	66	25	100%	6.0	24.9%	10.5%	14.3%	3.9%	4.74	4.85	+0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	MIN	23	23	139	587	141	64	24	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.9%	13.2%	4.1%	4.95	5.08	-0.3
2033	32	MLB CTX	MIN	21	21	128	540	126	61	24	100%	6.1	23.3%	11.3%	12.0%	4.4%	5.18	5.34	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		285	283	1637	6925	1762	686	259	99%	5.7	25.4%	9.9%	15.5%	3.7%	4.60	4.26	+12.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	846	215	84	32	99%	5.7	25.4%	9.9%	15.5%	3.7%	4.60	4.26	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		182	178	882	3693	887	326	129	98%	4.8	24.0%	8.8%	15.2%	3.5%	3.99	4.11	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	40	200	837	201	74	29	98%	4.8	24.0%	8.8%	15.2%	3.5%	3.99	4.11	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Taj Bradley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	23.7%	8.6%	3.5%	—	4.40	26.2%	16.4%	496	-0.09	—	—	—
Mike Foltynewicz R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	25	SP	3.98	20.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.316	3.66	23.9%	15.8%	351	-0.32	3.17	938	70
Lance McCullers Jr. R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	24	SP	3.31	26.9%	9.5%	2.3%	.272	3.32	26.4%	15.9%	217	+0.01	2.77	861	69
Carlos Martinez R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	25	SP	3.83	25.3%	7.9%	3.4%	.278	3.29	22.9%	13.1%	187	-0.54	2.53	849	66
Nick Pivetta R 2018 · 3.51 FIP	25	SP	3.51	27.1%	7.3%	3.2%	.323	4.29	25.2%	15.5%	305	+0.78	1.37	1,583	65
Luis Garcia R 2022 · 3.98 FIP	25	SP	3.98	24.4%	7.3%	3.7%	.260	3.45	25.7%	18.4%	44	-0.53	3.40	535	64
Reynaldo López R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP	4.69	20.9%	8.0%	4.2%	.311	3.73	23.7%	16.3%	188	-0.96	1.72	1,274	63
Michael Fulmer R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	25	SP	4.41	19.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.284	4.05	21.8%	14.9%	97	-0.36	2.74	917	63
Josiah Gray R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	25	SP	4.53	20.5%	11.3%	3.1%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	576	62
Luis Castillo R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	25	SP	4.00	23.3%	6.8%	3.7%	.278	3.24	27.1%	17.8%	448	-0.76	2.44	1,858	62
Trevor Bauer R 2016 · 3.79 FIP	25	SP-	3.79	20.7%	8.5%	2.5%	.287	3.27	28.2%	19.9%	565	-0.52	2.16	1,111	61
Luis Perdomo R 2018 · 4.36 FIP	25	SP	4.36	17.7%	8.0%	3.2%	.322	3.88	19.6%	12.5%	104	-0.48	3.49	715	60
Chad Kuhl R 2018 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP	4.58	21.7%	8.6%	4.1%	.305	5.17	21.8%	9.0%	127	+0.59	3.92	983	59
Robert Stephenson R 2018 · 4.25 FIP	25	SP	4.25	24.5%	13.0%	2.9%	.253	3.22	29.0%	20.8%	111	-1.03	2.99	778	59
José Berríos R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	23.2%	6.1%	3.1%	.295	3.72	23.4%	17.0%	427	+0.12	3.06	1,889	58
Dylan Bundy R 2018 · 4.63 FIP	25	SP	4.63	24.5%	7.1%	4.9%	.311	4.15	23.4%	15.5%	318	-0.48	1.97	956	57
Zach Eflin R 2019 · 4.36 FIP	25	SP	4.36	18.3%	6.1%	3.7%	.285	3.26	23.4%	19.1%	240	-1.10	2.81	1,337	57
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	820	56
Shelby Miller R 2016 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP	4.01	17.7%	7.4%	2.7%	.344	4.92	17.7%	4.7%	103	+0.91	2.80	694	56
Dinelson Lamet R 2017 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP	3.80	28.1%	11.2%	3.0%	.270	3.02	33.6%	25.2%	157	-0.78	2.11	778	56
Drew Hutchison R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	21.1%	8.7%	3.7%	.274	4.41	17.8%	8.5%	375	-0.06	4.07	1,027	55

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.0	151	25.1%	10.1%	1.43	4.63
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17