Michael Wacha — OGILVIE

Michael Wacha P Kansas City Royals

Age 35 RHP 6'6" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 12.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 2.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION183 act + 17 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10395vR 87

ERA3.64

FIP3.79

K%19.7%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%13.3%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 199 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p580.304

FB+4.2 (41%)

CH+2.5 (25%)

SL+1.1 (9%)

CT (15%)

SI (14%)

CU (10%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2013

Service 12.360 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.5M	+0.1	$0.6M	+$0.1M
Totals		$0.5M		$0.6M	+$0.1M

Options · projected decision
2028	CLUB OPT	$6.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$14.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	PLAYER OPT	$16.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	30	30	181	762	153	54	19	100%	6.0	20.1%	7.1%	13.0%	2.7%	3.38	3.77	+2.5
2015	24	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	30	30	181	762	153	54	19	100%	6.0	20.1%	7.1%	13.0%	2.5%	3.38	3.67	+2.7
2016	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	27	24	138	606	114	39	15	89%	5.1	18.8%	6.4%	12.4%	2.7%	5.09	3.79	+1.8
2016	25	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	27	24	138	606	114	39	15	89%	5.1	18.8%	6.4%	12.4%	2.5%	5.09	3.71	+2.0
2017	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	30	30	166	701	158	52	17	100%	5.5	22.5%	7.4%	15.1%	2.6%	4.13	3.57	+2.7
2017	26	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	30	30	166	701	158	52	17	100%	5.5	22.5%	7.4%	15.1%	2.4%	4.13	3.47	+2.9
2018	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	91	388	79	39	10	100%	5.1	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	2.7%	3.56	4.19	+0.8
2018	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	91	388	79	39	10	100%	5.1	20.4%	10.1%	10.3%	2.6%	3.56	4.08	+0.9
2019	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	29	24	127	562	104	51	26	83%	4.4	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	5.0%	4.76	5.42	-0.7
2019	28	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	29	24	127	562	104	51	26	83%	4.4	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	4.6%	4.76	5.33	-0.6
2020	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	8	7	34	156	37	7	9	88%	4.2	23.7%	4.5%	19.2%	5.8%	6.62	4.84	+0.0
2020	29	MLB RAW	New York Mets	8	7	34	156	37	7	9	88%	4.2	23.7%	4.5%	19.2%	5.8%	6.62	4.98	-0.0
2021	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	29	23	125	528	121	31	23	79%	4.3	22.9%	5.9%	17.0%	4.5%	5.05	4.37	+0.8
2021	30	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	29	23	125	528	121	31	23	79%	4.3	22.9%	5.9%	17.0%	4.4%	5.05	4.30	+0.9
2022	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	136	548	117	34	18	100%	5.5	20.2%	6.0%	14.2%	3.6%	3.23	4.12	+1.3
2022	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	136	548	117	34	18	100%	5.5	21.4%	6.2%	15.1%	3.3%	3.23	3.85	+1.7
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	136	564	126	46	15	100%	5.5	22.4%	7.8%	14.6%	2.6%	3.17	3.64	+2.1
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	136	564	126	46	15	100%	5.5	22.4%	7.8%	14.6%	2.6%	3.17	3.64	+2.1
2023	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	136	564	126	46	15	100%	5.5	22.3%	8.2%	14.2%	2.7%	3.17	3.69	+2.0
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	171	698	151	44	17	100%	5.7	21.2%	6.4%	14.7%	2.7%	3.27	3.60	+2.7
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	171	698	151	44	17	100%	5.7	21.2%	6.4%	14.7%	2.7%	3.27	3.60	+2.7
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	171	698	151	44	17	100%	5.7	21.6%	6.3%	15.3%	2.4%	3.27	3.40	+3.1
2025	34	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	31	31	173	716	126	45	15	100%	5.6	17.6%	6.3%	11.3%	2.3%	3.86	3.65	+2.6
2025	34	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	31	31	173	716	126	45	15	100%	5.6	17.6%	6.3%	11.3%	2.3%	3.86	3.65	+2.6
2025	34	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	31	31	173	716	126	45	15	100%	5.6	17.6%	6.3%	11.3%	2.1%	3.86	3.55	+2.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			304	289	1638	6875	1404	480	207	95%	5.4	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	3.0%	3.91	3.91	+19.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	29	29	183	736	147	47	24	100%	6.3	20.0%	6.4%	13.6%	3.5%	3.25	4.16	+1.6
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	29	29	183	736	147	47	24	100%	6.3	20.0%	6.4%	13.6%	3.5%	3.25	4.16	+1.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	35	MLB RAW	KC	29	29	183	736	147	47	24	100%	6.3	20.0%	6.4%	13.6%	3.3%	3.25	4.01	+1.9
SO FAR	35	MLB RAW	KC	29	29	183	736	147	47	24	100%	6.3	20.0%	6.4%	13.6%	3.3%	3.25	4.01	+1.9
ROS	35	MLB MLE	KC	3	3	17	70	14	4	2	100%	5.5	19.7%	6.4%	13.3%	2.8%	3.64	3.79	+0.2
ROS	35	MLB CTX	KC	3	3	17	72	14	5	2	100%	5.7	19.7%	6.4%	13.3%	2.6%	3.52	3.67	+0.2
2026 TOT	35	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	199	806	161	51	26	—	—	20.0%	6.4%	13.6%	3.2%	3.28	4.13	+1.8
FULL	35	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	199	841	161	51	26	—	—	19.1%	6.1%	13.0%	3.1%	3.27	3.95	+1.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	129	543	101	38	18	100%	6.1	18.6%	7.0%	11.6%	3.3%	4.43	4.63	+0.4
2028	37	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	112	474	83	36	18	100%	5.9	17.5%	7.7%	9.8%	3.8%	4.79	5.03	-0.2
2027	36	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	129	545	101	38	17	100%	5.9	18.6%	7.0%	11.6%	3.1%	4.29	4.49	+0.4
2028	37	MLB CTX	KC	19	19	112	473	83	36	16	100%	5.9	17.5%	7.7%	9.8%	3.5%	4.64	4.88	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		347	332	1896	7962	1602	559	242	96%	5.5	20.1%	7.0%	13.1%	3.0%	3.97	3.96	+21.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	840	169	59	26	96%	5.5	20.1%	7.0%	13.1%	3.0%	3.97	3.96	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		311	296	1660	6965	1422	487	222	95%	5.3	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	3.2%	3.90	4.01	+19.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	36	200	839	171	59	27	95%	5.3	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	3.2%	3.90	4.01	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Wacha (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	18.8%	6.5%	2.5%	—	4.82	18.1%	10.8%	241	+0.71	—	—	—
Aníbal Sánchez R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	18.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.258	5.04	17.2%	7.8%	135	+0.98	3.49	869	70
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	33	SP-	4.95	21.5%	9.0%	4.6%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	469	68
Ricky Nolasco R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	34	SP	4.84	18.2%	7.0%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	425	66
James Shields R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	35	SP	5.12	20.1%	9.3%	4.6%	.271	4.85	17.7%	8.7%	205	-0.27	4.15	720	63
Marco Estrada R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	35	SP	5.26	16.4%	8.0%	4.6%	.283	7.16	10.4%	2.9%	24	+1.90	4.04	710	62
Zack Greinke R 2019 · 3.05 FIP	35	SP	3.05	23.1%	3.5%	2.7%	.268	4.12	16.8%	12.1%	375	+1.07	2.56	1,517	62
Matt Garza R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	33	SP	4.57	15.7%	8.1%	3.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	365	62
Edinson Volquez R 2017 · 4.14 FIP	34	SP	4.14	20.4%	12.6%	2.1%	.271	6.11	13.3%	-2.7%	16	+1.97	3.74	498	54
Scott Feldman R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	34	SP	4.58	19.7%	7.0%	4.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	297	53
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2016 · 4.15 FIP	35	SP	4.15	17.6%	5.1%	3.4%	.307	6.31	12.5%	3.1%	31	+2.16	3.74	360	50
Brandon McCarthy R 2018 · 4.69 FIP	35	SP	4.69	19.2%	6.2%	4.4%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	248	49
Adam Wainwright R 2017 · 4.08 FIP	35	SP	4.08	17.6%	7.5%	2.8%	.319	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	278	+0.00	2.03	1,127	49
Josh Lindblom R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	35	SP	5.07	20.8%	8.8%	4.8%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	348	49
Mike Fiers R 2020 · 4.79 FIP	35	SP	4.79	14.4%	6.2%	3.9%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	918	47
Corey Kluber R 2021 · 3.50 FIP	35	SP	3.50	24.0%	9.7%	2.2%	.303	4.19	19.2%	14.9%	219	+0.69	2.26	1,190	47
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	46
A.J. Burnett R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	38	SP	3.16	20.5%	6.7%	1.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	164	45
Doug Fister R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	34	SP	4.77	13.8%	6.6%	3.7%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	455	45
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	44
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	44

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	129	18.3%	7.0%	1.22	4.36
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58