Michael Wacha — OGILVIE

Michael Wacha P Kansas City Royals

Age 35 RHP 6'6" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 12.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 2.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION119 act + 80 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 88

ERA3.64

FIP3.79

K%19.4%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP80

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 199 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p2621.9%

p3319.7%

xwOBA vs

p470.315

FB+4.2 (42%)

CH+2.5 (24%)

SL+1.1 (9%)

CT (15%)

SI (15%)

CU (10%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2013

Service 12.360 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+1.4	$12M	+$9M
Totals		$2M		$12M	+$9M

Options · projected decision
2028	CLUB OPT	$6.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$14.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	PLAYER OPT	$16.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	30	30	181	762	153	54	19	100%	6.0	20.1%	7.1%	13.0%	2.5%	3.38	3.68	+3.7
2015	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	30	30	181	762	153	54	19	100%	6.0	20.1%	7.1%	13.0%	2.5%	3.38	3.67	+3.7
2016	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	27	24	138	606	114	39	15	89%	5.1	18.8%	6.4%	12.4%	2.5%	5.09	3.69	+2.8
2016	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	27	24	138	606	114	39	15	89%	5.1	18.8%	6.4%	12.4%	2.5%	5.09	3.71	+2.7
2017	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	30	30	166	701	158	52	17	100%	5.5	22.5%	7.4%	15.1%	2.4%	4.13	3.47	+3.7
2017	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	30	30	166	701	158	52	17	100%	5.5	22.5%	7.4%	15.1%	2.4%	4.13	3.47	+3.7
2018	27	MIX	3 levels	18	18	91	388	79	39	10	100%	5.1	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	2.5%	3.56	4.09	+1.2
2018	27	MIX	3 levels	18	18	91	388	79	39	10	100%	5.1	20.4%	10.1%	10.3%	2.6%	3.56	4.08	+1.2
2019	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	29	24	127	562	104	51	26	83%	4.4	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	4.6%	4.76	5.24	+0.2
2019	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	29	24	127	562	104	51	26	83%	4.4	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	4.6%	4.76	5.33	+0.1
2020	29	MLB	New York Mets	8	7	34	156	37	7	9	88%	4.2	23.7%	4.5%	19.2%	5.8%	6.62	4.85	-0.1
2020	29	MLB	New York Mets	8	7	34	156	37	7	9	88%	4.2	23.7%	4.5%	19.2%	5.8%	6.62	4.98	-0.2
2021	30	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	29	23	125	528	121	31	23	79%	4.3	22.9%	5.9%	17.0%	4.6%	5.05	4.44	+1.4
2021	30	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	29	23	125	528	121	31	23	79%	4.3	22.9%	5.9%	17.0%	4.4%	5.05	4.30	+1.6
2022	31	MIX	3 levels	25	25	136	548	117	34	18	100%	5.5	20.2%	6.0%	14.2%	3.5%	3.23	4.06	+2.1
2022	31	MIX	3 levels	25	25	136	548	117	34	18	100%	5.5	21.4%	6.2%	15.1%	3.3%	3.23	3.85	+2.5
2023	32	MIX	2 levels	25	25	136	564	126	46	15	100%	5.5	22.4%	7.8%	14.6%	2.9%	3.17	3.79	+2.6
2023	32	MIX	2 levels	25	25	136	564	126	46	15	100%	5.5	22.3%	8.2%	14.2%	2.7%	3.17	3.69	+2.7
2024	33	MIX	2 levels	30	30	171	698	151	44	17	100%	5.7	21.2%	6.4%	14.7%	2.7%	3.27	3.58	+3.6
2024	33	MIX	2 levels	30	30	171	698	151	44	17	100%	5.7	21.6%	6.3%	15.3%	2.4%	3.27	3.40	+4.0
2025	34	MLB	Kansas City Royals	31	31	173	716	126	45	15	100%	5.6	17.6%	6.3%	11.3%	2.2%	3.86	3.64	+3.6
2025	34	MLB	Kansas City Royals	31	31	173	716	126	45	15	100%	5.6	17.6%	6.3%	11.3%	2.1%	3.86	3.55	+3.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	35	MLB	Kansas City Royals	19	19	119	487	96	33	14	100%	6.3	19.7%	6.8%	12.9%	2.9%	3.77	3.87	+2.1
ROS	35	MLB	KC	13	13	80	336	65	22	9	100%	6.1	19.4%	6.7%	12.8%	2.7%	3.64	3.79	+1.1
ROS	35	MLB	KC	13	13	80	338	66	23	9	100%	6.2	19.4%	6.7%	12.8%	2.6%	3.59	3.74	+1.2
2026 TOT	35	MLB	KC	—	—	199	823	161	55	23	—	—	19.6%	6.7%	12.9%	2.8%	3.72	3.84	+3.6
2026 FULL	35	MLB	KC	—	—	199	840	161	55	23	—	—	19.2%	6.6%	12.6%	2.7%	3.70	3.80	+3.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	36	MLB	KC	21	21	129	543	100	39	17	100%	6.1	18.3%	7.3%	11.1%	3.1%	4.33	4.54	+1.3
2028	37	MLB	KC	19	19	112	474	82	37	17	100%	5.9	17.2%	7.9%	9.3%	3.5%	4.70	4.94	+0.6
2027	36	MLB	KC	22	22	129	545	100	40	16	100%	5.9	18.3%	7.3%	11.1%	3.0%	4.28	4.49	+1.4
2028	37	MLB	KC	19	19	112	473	82	37	16	100%	5.9	17.2%	7.9%	9.3%	3.4%	4.64	4.88	+0.7
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			347	332	1895	7979	1600	565	238	96%	5.5	20.0%	7.1%	13.0%	3.0%	4.02	3.94	+32.3
/ 200 IP	—			37	35	200	842	169	60	25	96%	5.5	20.0%	7.1%	13.0%	3.0%	4.02	3.94	+3.4
Career	—			301	286	1597	6716	1371	473	205	95%	5.3	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	3.0%	3.96	3.94	+27.3
/ 200 IP	—			38	36	200	841	172	59	26	95%	5.3	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	3.0%	3.96	3.94	+3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Wacha (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	18.8%	6.5%	2.5%	—	4.73	17.8%	10.3%	241	+0.62	—	—	—
Yasutomo Kubo R 2029 · 3.67 FIP	38	SP	3.67	20.4%	4.7%	3.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	152	45
A.J. Burnett R 2029 · 3.10 FIP	38	SP	3.10	20.5%	6.7%	1.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	164	45
Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	35	SP	4.16	15.8%	8.1%	2.5%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	393	44
Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	35	SP	4.31	17.5%	8.1%	3.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	485	44
Tomoyuki Sugano R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	15.7%	5.0%	4.5%	.279	5.23	13.4%	7.0%	84	+0.32	4.91	241	44
Ricky Nolasco R 2025 · 4.98 FIP	34	SP	4.98	18.2%	7.0%	4.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	425	44
John Lackey R 2027 · 3.42 FIP	36	SP	3.42	19.5%	5.4%	2.4%	.291	4.21	22.3%	15.4%	359	+0.79	3.42	577	43
Aaron Harang R 2028 · 4.54 FIP	37	SP	4.54	14.4%	6.4%	3.4%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	172	43
Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	18.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.258	5.04	17.2%	7.8%	135	+0.98	3.49	869	42
Frankie De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	16.2%	8.0%	2.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	240	42
Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 5.22 FIP	35	SP	5.22	20.8%	8.8%	5.0%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	348	42
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	33	SP-	5.02	21.5%	9.0%	4.7%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	469	42
Matt Garza R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	33	SP	4.74	15.7%	8.1%	3.5%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	365	42
Colby Lewis R 2026 · 3.91 FIP	35	SP	3.91	16.5%	4.6%	2.9%	.283	4.70	15.5%	9.6%	116	+0.79	3.91	321	41
Josh Roenicke R 2025 · 3.49 FIP	34	SP	3.49	18.0%	5.8%	2.1%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.29	283	41
Brad Penny R 2028 · 3.52 FIP	37	SP	3.52	12.0%	5.8%	1.3%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	135	41
Walter Silva R 2029 · 3.95 FIP	38	SP	3.95	14.8%	7.4%	2.1%	.311	3.96	10.4%	3.7%	209	+0.01	3.68	428	41
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2028 · 3.07 FIP	37	SP	3.07	13.2%	3.6%	1.2%	.345	3.27	12.8%	11.7%	45	+0.20	3.07	199	40
Kameron Loe R 2026 · 3.47 FIP	35	SP	3.47	17.1%	8.0%	1.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	201	40
Miles Mikolas R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	35	SP	4.10	16.9%	3.5%	3.6%	.307	5.11	14.0%	8.7%	251	+1.01	3.06	1,275	40

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3	129	18.2%	7.2%	1.16	4.30
Miguel González ('17)	3	145	16.2%	7.5%	1.18	4.44
Doug Fister ('18)	4	110	15.8%	7.5%	1.19	4.56
Clay Buchholz ('19)	4	102	18.8%	6.8%	1.08	3.95
Ricky Nolasco ('17)	3	139	18.1%	6.5%	1.38	4.85
Jaime García ('18)	4	135	19.6%	8.5%	1.05	4.23
Jason Vargas ('19)	4	116	18.5%	8.2%	1.38	4.57