Michael Wacha
P
Kansas City Royals
+1.8
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'6" / 215 lbs
MLB
Svc 13.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 1.8 · 2026
ERA3.83
FIP4.05
xFIP4.10
SIERA4.05
K%19.4%
BB%6.7%
K-BB%12.7%
IP145
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.8peak
2026
K†4545
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p5926.7%
K%
p5322.8%
xwOBA vs
p280.338
FB+4.2 (43%)
CH+2.5 (25%)
SL+1.1 (7%)
CT (17%)
SI (14%)
CU (8%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 30 | 30 | 181 | 762 | 153 | 54 | 19 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 3.38 | 3.83 | +3.0 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 27 | 24 | 138 | 606 | 114 | 39 | 15 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 5.09 | 3.68 | +2.5 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 30 | 30 | 166 | 701 | 158 | 52 | 17 | 22.5% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 4.13 | 3.59 | +3.2 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 18 | 18 | 91 | 388 | 79 | 39 | 10 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 3.56 | 4.18 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 29 | 24 | 127 | 562 | 104 | 51 | 26 | 18.5% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 4.76 | 5.58 | -0.4 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 8 | 7 | 34 | 156 | 37 | 7 | 9 | 23.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.62 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 29 | 23 | 125 | 528 | 121 | 31 | 23 | 22.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.05 | 4.42 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 25 | 25 | 136 | 548 | 117 | 34 | 18 | 20.2% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 3.23 | 4.04 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 25 | 25 | 136 | 564 | 126 | 46 | 15 | 22.4% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.17 | 3.75 | +2.4 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 30 | 30 | 171 | 698 | 151 | 44 | 17 | 21.2% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 3.27 | 3.54 | +3.4 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 31 | 31 | 173 | 716 | 126 | 45 | 15 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 2.2% | 3.86 | 3.62 | +3.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 3 | 3 | 21 | 74 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 23.0% | 6.8% | 1.4% | 0.43 | 2.76 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 114 | 482 | 96 | 32 | 11 | 20.0% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 3.22 | 3.53 | +2.3 |
| 2026 Total | 35 | MLB | STL | — | — | 135 | 556 | 113 | 37 | 12 | 20.4% | 6.7% | 2.2% | 2.79 | 3.41 | +2.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 118 | 496 | 95 | 35 | 12 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 3.91 | 4.10 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 101 | 428 | 78 | 31 | 11 | 18.3% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 4.13 | 4.28 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 64 | 28 | 10 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 4.46 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 39 | MLB | STL | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 58 | 22 | 9 | 18.6% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.38 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 40 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 48 | 20 | 8 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.57 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 285 | 270 | 1498 | 6303 | 1292 | 445 | 198 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 3.93 | 3.98 | +22.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 36 | 200 | 841 | 172 | 59 | 26 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 3.93 | 3.98 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michael Wacha (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.12 | 18.7% | 6.7% | 2.5% | — | 4.26 | 18.3% | 11.1% | 306 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Brad Penny R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.75 | 12.0% | 5.8% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 135 | 46 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.47 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 393 | 46 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.89 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 485 | 45 |
| Lorenzo Barcelo R 2028 · 3.18 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.18 | 13.2% | 3.6% | 1.4% | .345 | 3.38 | 12.8% | 11.7% | 45 | +0.20 | 3.18 | 199 | 45 |
| Aaron Harang R 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.43 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 172 | 45 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2029 · 4.44 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.44 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.88 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.44 | 4.44 | 217 | 44 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.26 | 7.6% | 6.1% | 1.9% | .354 | 4.56 | 13.0% | 5.2% | 53 | +0.30 | 4.26 | 183 | 44 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2024 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.81 | 10.8% | 5.9% | 3.4% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.32 | 287 | 44 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.89 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | .279 | 5.58 | 19.0% | 14.2% | 17 | +0.69 | 4.89 | 174 | 43 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2027 · 5.01 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.01 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | .309 | 5.01 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.00 | 5.01 | 211 | 43 |
| Angel Castro R 2025 · 3.50 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.50 | 14.5% | 7.4% | 1.3% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 292 | 42 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.67 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 4.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 425 | 42 |
| A.J. Burnett R 2029 · 3.04 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.04 | 20.5% | 6.7% | 1.5% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 164 | 42 |
| Kameron Loe R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.36 | 17.1% | 8.0% | 1.3% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 201 | 41 |
| John Lackey R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.56 | 19.5% | 5.4% | 2.6% | .291 | 4.31 | 22.3% | 15.4% | 359 | +0.75 | 3.56 | 577 | 41 |
| Colby Lewis R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.91 | 16.5% | 4.6% | 2.9% | .283 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 9.6% | 116 | +0.76 | 3.91 | 321 | 40 |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2029 · 3.94 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.94 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 152 | 40 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.84 | 18.8% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .258 | 5.06 | 17.2% | 7.8% | 135 | +1.22 | 3.64 | 869 | 39 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.02 | 20.8% | 8.8% | 4.7% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 348 | 39 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2024 · 5.00 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.00 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 469 | 39 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2013
Service 13.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2029
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $18M | +1.8 | $14M | -$4M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $14M | +1.6 | $13M | -$0.8M |
| 2028 | Ext / FA-deal | $14M | +1.2 | $10M | -$4M |
| Totals | $46M | $38M | -$8M | ||