Michael Wacha

P Kansas City Royals

Age 36 RHP 6'6" / 215 lbs MLB peak 1.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	33	MIX2 levels	30	30	171	3.27	3.40	21.6%	6.3%	4.2	K 21.2% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.60
2025	34	MLBKC	31	31	173	3.86	3.55	17.6%	6.3%	3.9
2026	35	MLBKC	32	32	201	3.32	4.26	19.5%	6.5%	2.7
2027PROJ	36	MLBKC	20	20	123	4.21	4.56	18.9%	6.7%	1.2
2028PROJ	37	MLBKC	12	12	72	4.51	4.81	17.8%	7.3%	0.4
2029PROJ	38	MLBKC	6	6	37	4.93	5.23	16.6%	8.0%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 10.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs54

FB Velo32

K%32

Form3.30 ERA (proj 4.21) · K 17.5% (proj 18.9%) · BB 9.5% (proj 6.7%) ▼ last 60d · 30 IP through Oct 27

CompsHiroki Kuroda (age 36) · Jose Contreras (age 36) · Steve Sparks (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.21

FIP4.56

K%18.9%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%12.2%

Proj IP123

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p3219.5%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2013	22	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	15	9	65	260	65	19	5	60%	4.3	25.0%	7.3%	17.7%	2.1%	2.78	3.05	+1.9
2013	22	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	15	9	65	260	65	19	5	60%	4.3	25.0%	7.3%	17.7%	1.9%	2.78	2.98	+1.9
2014	23	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	19	19	107	447	94	33	6	100%	5.6	21.0%	7.4%	13.6%	1.4%	3.20	3.05	+3.1
2014	23	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	19	19	107	447	94	33	6	100%	5.6	21.0%	7.4%	13.6%	1.3%	3.20	3.00	+3.2
2015	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	30	30	181	762	153	54	19	100%	6.0	20.1%	7.1%	13.0%	2.7%	3.38	3.77	+3.6
2015	24	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	30	30	181	762	153	54	19	100%	6.0	20.1%	7.1%	13.0%	2.5%	3.38	3.67	+3.8
2016	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	27	24	138	606	114	39	15	89%	5.1	18.8%	6.4%	12.4%	2.7%	5.09	3.79	+2.7
2016	25	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	27	24	138	606	114	39	15	89%	5.1	18.8%	6.4%	12.4%	2.5%	5.09	3.71	+2.8
2017	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	30	30	166	701	158	52	17	100%	5.5	22.5%	7.4%	15.1%	2.6%	4.13	3.57	+3.7
2017	26	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	30	30	166	701	158	52	17	100%	5.5	22.5%	7.4%	15.1%	2.4%	4.13	3.47	+3.9
2018	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	91	388	79	39	10	100%	5.1	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	2.7%	3.56	4.19	+1.3
2018	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	91	388	79	39	10	100%	5.1	20.4%	10.1%	10.3%	2.6%	3.56	4.08	+1.4
2019	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	29	24	127	562	104	51	26	83%	4.4	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	5.0%	4.76	5.42	-0.0
2019	28	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	29	24	127	562	104	51	26	83%	4.4	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	4.6%	4.76	5.33	+0.1
2020	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	8	7	34	156	37	7	9	88%	4.2	23.7%	4.5%	19.2%	5.8%	6.62	4.84	+0.2
2020	29	MLB RAW	New York Mets	8	7	34	156	37	7	9	88%	4.2	23.7%	4.5%	19.2%	5.8%	6.62	4.98	+0.2
2021	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	29	23	125	528	121	31	23	79%	4.3	22.9%	5.9%	17.0%	4.5%	5.05	4.37	+1.5
2021	30	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	29	23	125	528	121	31	23	79%	4.3	22.9%	5.9%	17.0%	4.4%	5.05	4.30	+1.6
2022	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	136	548	117	34	18	100%	5.5	20.2%	6.0%	14.2%	3.6%	3.23	4.12	+2.1
2022	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	136	548	117	34	18	100%	5.5	21.4%	6.2%	15.1%	3.3%	3.23	3.85	+2.5
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	136	564	126	46	15	100%	5.5	22.4%	7.8%	14.6%	2.6%	3.17	3.64	+2.9
2023	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	136	564	126	46	15	100%	5.5	22.3%	8.2%	14.2%	2.7%	3.17	3.69	+2.8
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	171	698	151	44	17	100%	5.7	21.2%	6.4%	14.7%	2.7%	3.27	3.60	+3.7
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	171	698	151	44	17	100%	5.7	21.2%	6.4%	14.7%	2.7%	3.27	3.60	+3.7
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	171	698	151	44	17	100%	5.7	21.6%	6.3%	15.3%	2.4%	3.27	3.40	+4.2
2025	34	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	31	31	173	716	126	45	15	100%	5.6	17.6%	6.3%	11.3%	2.3%	3.86	3.65	+3.7
2025	34	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	31	31	173	716	126	45	15	100%	5.6	17.6%	6.3%	11.3%	2.3%	3.86	3.65	+3.7
2025	34	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	31	31	173	716	126	45	15	100%	5.6	17.6%	6.3%	11.3%	2.1%	3.86	3.55	+3.9
2026	35	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	32	32	201	812	158	53	30	100%	6.3	19.5%	6.5%	12.9%	4.0%	3.32	4.48	+2.2
2026	35	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	32	32	201	812	158	53	30	100%	6.3	19.5%	6.5%	12.9%	4.0%	3.32	4.48	+2.2
2026	35	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	32	32	201	812	158	53	30	100%	6.3	19.5%	6.5%	12.9%	3.7%	3.32	4.26	+2.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			341	320	1828	7658	1574	538	224	94%	5.4	20.6%	7.0%	13.5%	2.9%	3.83	3.85	+33.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	KC	20	20	123	519	98	35	17	100%	6.2	18.9%	6.7%	12.2%	3.3%	4.21	4.56	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	72	303	54	22	11	100%	6.0	17.8%	7.3%	10.5%	3.7%	4.66	4.96	+0.4
2029	38	MLB MLE	KC	6	6	37	157	26	13	7	100%	6.2	16.6%	8.0%	8.6%	4.2%	5.10	5.40	0.0
2028	37	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	72	304	54	22	11	100%	6.0	17.8%	7.3%	10.5%	3.5%	4.51	4.81	+0.4
2029	38	MLB CTX	KC	6	6	37	156	26	13	6	100%	6.2	16.6%	8.0%	8.6%	3.9%	4.93	5.23	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		359	338	1937	8119	1654	573	241	94%	5.4	20.4%	7.1%	13.3%	3.0%	3.87	3.90	+34.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	838	171	59	25	94%	5.4	20.4%	7.1%	13.3%	3.0%	3.87	3.90	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		348	327	1850	7748	1592	545	240	94%	5.3	20.6%	7.0%	13.5%	3.1%	3.82	3.95	+34.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	35	200	838	172	59	26	94%	5.3	20.6%	7.0%	13.5%	3.1%	3.82	3.95	+3.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Wacha (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	5.11	17.4%	9.8%	109	+0.55	—	—	—
Hiroki Kuroda R 2011 · 3.64 FIP	36	SP	3.64	19.2%	5.1%	2.8%	.282	3.50	18.2%	13.3%	620	-0.14	2.96	1,319	79
Jose Contreras R 2008 · 4.08 FIP	36	SP	4.08	13.4%	6.7%	2.3%	.291	3.52	20.1%	12.1%	202	-0.56	2.43	1,279	57
Steve Sparks R 2001 · 4.14 FIP	36	SP	4.14	11.8%	6.4%	2.2%	.284	4.69	11.2%	3.7%	417	+0.55	3.78	1,320	57
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	37
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	36
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	36
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	35
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	30
Angel Castro R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	34	SP	3.51	14.5%	7.4%	1.3%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	292	29
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	28
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	36	SP-	4.20	15.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	567	28
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	262	28
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	27
Chris Smith R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	36	SP-	5.08	15.6%	7.5%	4.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	477	25
Jonathan Castellanos R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	8.4%	9.2%	2.5%	.314	5.24	11.0%	2.0%	67	+0.33	3.40	394	24
David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP-	4.26	14.7%	6.5%	2.9%	.337	5.56	12.2%	4.1%	29	+1.30	3.88	560	24
Jose Oyervides R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	35	SP	5.38	18.0%	6.3%	5.5%	.254	5.66	16.3%	5.1%	115	+0.28	3.01	407	23
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	22
Francisco Rodriguez R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	36	SP	5.18	10.7%	9.3%	3.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	334	20
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	20

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.3	121	20.3%	7.3%	1.16	3.90
Danny Darwin ('78-'98, 36 WAR*)	15.1	151	20.5%*	6.7%*	1.21*	4.02*
Bruce Kison ('71-'85, 16 WAR*)	9.0	121	20.4%*	8.5%*	1.10*	4.16*
Jeff Samardzija ('20)	8.2	150	21.0%	7.1%	1.12	4.15
Nelson Briles ('65-'78, 21 WAR*)	10.6	151	17.8%*	6.4%*	1.21*	4.13*
Denny Neagle ('03)	9.5	145	17.6%	7.4%	1.19	4.24
Brett Myers ('13)	8.6	142	18.9%	7.6%	1.30	4.25