Mick Abel — OGILVIE

Mick Abel P Minnesota Twins

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.3 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.09

FIP4.04

K%23.8%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p7228.8%

p6424.7%

xwOBA vs

p190.349

CH+1.0 (18%)

SL (24%)

SI (3%)

CU (12%)

FB-2.0 (46%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.291 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$8M	+1.4	$9M	+$3M
2030	Arb-2	$13M	+1.2	$7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$15M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$39M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	14	14	45	189	66	27	5	100%	3.2	25.8%	16.9%	9.0%	3.5%	4.43	4.95	—
2021	19	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	14	14	45	189	66	27	5	100%	3.2	34.9%	14.3%	20.6%	2.6%	4.43	3.41	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	108	471	130	50	11	100%	4.7	21.5%	12.1%	9.4%	3.0%	3.90	4.47	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	108	471	130	50	11	100%	4.7	27.6%	10.6%	17.0%	2.3%	3.90	3.40	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	113	482	132	65	15	100%	4.9	22.3%	14.9%	7.4%	3.7%	4.13	5.16	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	113	482	132	65	15	100%	4.9	22.3%	14.9%	7.4%	3.7%	4.13	5.16	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	113	482	132	65	15	100%	4.9	27.4%	13.5%	13.9%	3.1%	4.13	4.21	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	24	24	109	515	117	78	15	100%	4.5	18.9%	13.6%	5.2%	3.2%	6.46	5.01	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	24	24	109	515	117	78	15	100%	4.5	18.9%	13.6%	5.2%	3.2%	6.46	5.01	—
2024	22	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	24	24	109	515	117	78	15	100%	4.5	22.7%	15.1%	7.6%	2.9%	6.46	4.89	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	137	572	153	56	14	93%	4.9	23.4%	9.1%	14.3%	2.3%	3.34	3.55	+2.3
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	137	572	153	56	14	93%	4.9	23.4%	9.1%	14.3%	2.3%	3.34	3.55	+2.3
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	137	572	153	56	14	93%	4.9	26.7%	9.8%	17.0%	2.4%	3.34	3.42	+2.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			14	11	59	267	62	25	8	79%	4.2	23.2%	9.4%	13.9%	3.0%	5.46	4.03	+0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	6	5	28	123	33	9	1	83%	4.7	24.7%	9.7%	15.1%	0.0%	3.18	2.24	+1.0
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	6	5	28	123	33	9	1	83%	4.7	24.7%	9.7%	15.1%	0.0%	3.18	2.24	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	MIN	2	2	8	30	10	0	1	100%	4.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	3.3%	1.12	2.11	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	MIN	4	3	20	93	23	9	0	75%	5.1	24.7%	9.7%	15.1%	0.0%	3.98	2.24	+0.7
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	MIN	4	3	20	93	23	9	0	75%	5.1	24.7%	9.7%	15.1%	0.0%	3.98	2.24	+0.7
ROS	24	MLB MLE	MIN	1	1	5	20	5	2	1	100%	4.6	23.8%	10.9%	12.9%	2.9%	4.09	4.04	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB CTX	MIN	1	1	5	21	5	2	1	100%	5.0	23.8%	10.9%	12.9%	2.9%	4.09	4.04	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	33	143	38	11	2	—	—	26.4%	7.8%	18.6%	1.1%	3.30	2.49	+0.9
FULL	24	MLB A+C	MIN	—	—	25	105	38	11	2	—	—	35.7%	10.6%	25.2%	1.5%	4.36	2.23	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIN	29	29	171	723	173	73	18	100%	5.9	23.9%	10.2%	13.8%	2.5%	4.20	4.15	+1.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	29	29	175	739	177	73	19	100%	6.0	24.0%	9.9%	14.0%	2.6%	4.16	4.13	+1.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	29	29	172	728	174	72	19	100%	5.9	23.9%	9.9%	14.0%	2.7%	4.17	4.18	+1.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIN	29	29	172	728	172	73	20	100%	5.9	23.7%	10.0%	13.7%	2.8%	4.22	4.26	+1.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIN	27	27	165	695	161	71	20	100%	6.1	23.1%	10.2%	12.9%	2.9%	4.34	4.42	+0.9
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIN	26	26	155	653	146	69	20	100%	5.9	22.4%	10.5%	11.9%	3.1%	4.51	4.63	+0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	MIN	24	24	144	609	132	66	20	100%	6.0	21.6%	10.9%	10.8%	3.3%	4.72	4.86	+0.1
2034	32	MLB MLE	MIN	22	22	134	564	118	64	20	100%	6.1	20.8%	11.3%	9.6%	3.6%	4.96	5.12	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIN	28	28	163	688	165	70	18	100%	5.8	23.9%	10.2%	13.8%	2.6%	4.21	4.16	+1.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	28	28	166	701	168	70	18	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.9%	14.0%	2.6%	4.17	4.14	+1.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	27	27	164	692	165	69	18	100%	6.1	23.9%	9.9%	14.0%	2.7%	4.18	4.19	+1.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIN	27	27	164	692	164	69	19	100%	6.1	23.7%	10.0%	13.7%	2.8%	4.23	4.27	+1.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIN	26	26	156	659	152	67	19	100%	6.0	23.1%	10.2%	12.9%	2.9%	4.35	4.43	+0.9
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIN	24	24	147	621	139	65	19	100%	6.1	22.4%	10.5%	11.9%	3.1%	4.52	4.64	+0.5
2033	31	MLB CTX	MIN	23	23	137	578	125	63	19	100%	6.0	21.6%	10.9%	10.8%	3.4%	4.73	4.87	+0.1
2034	32	MLB CTX	MIN	21	21	127	536	112	60	19	100%	6.0	20.8%	11.3%	9.6%	3.6%	4.97	5.13	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		219	216	1288	5454	1256	560	160	99%	5.9	23.0%	10.3%	12.8%	2.9%	4.44	4.06	+12.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	847	195	87	25	99%	5.9	23.0%	10.3%	12.8%	2.9%	4.44	4.06	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		118	115	541	2352	519	295	69	97%	4.6	22.0%	12.5%	9.5%	2.9%	4.33	4.43	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	43	200	870	192	109	25	97%	4.6	22.0%	12.5%	9.5%	2.9%	4.33	4.43	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mick Abel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	23.4%	11.1%	3.0%	—	4.15	23.9%	13.9%	519	-0.40	—	—	—
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	81
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	80
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.55	24.9%	17.3%	216	-0.12	2.28	474	79
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	79
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	78
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	78
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	77
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	77
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	76
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	76
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	75
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	75
Kyle Bradish R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.30	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.30	2.20	750	74
Josh Roberson R 2019 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	17.7%	9.4%	1.6%	.298	5.37	21.7%	5.5%	60	+1.70	3.17	229	74
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	74
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	74
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	73
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	73
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	73
Shane McCarthy R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP	3.94	21.6%	10.2%	2.5%	.302	5.47	18.9%	7.0%	29	+1.53	2.07	117	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.2	159	23.1%	10.4%	1.13	4.41
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67