Mick Abel — OGILVIE

Mick Abel P Minnesota Twins

+0.5 WAR

INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.0 · 2028

ERA5.22

FIP4.54

xFIP4.22

SIERA3.96

K%23.0%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%11.6%

IP120

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.0peak

2028

K†6060

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p7228.8%

p6424.7%

xwOBA vs

p170.351

CH+1.0 (18%)

SL (24%)

SI (3%)

CU (12%)

FB-2.0 (46%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	19	A	Clearwater Threshers	14	14	45	189	66	27	5	25.8%	16.9%	3.5%	4.43	4.95	-0.0
2022	20	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	23	23	108	471	130	50	11	21.5%	12.1%	3.0%	3.90	4.45	+1.0
2023	21	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	23	23	113	482	132	65	15	22.3%	14.9%	3.8%	4.13	5.19	+0.1
2024	22	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	24	24	109	515	117	78	15	20.0%	15.9%	3.2%	6.46	5.20	+0.1
2025	23	MLB	Minnesota Twins	28	26	137	572	153	56	14	24.4%	10.1%	2.2%	3.34	3.54	+2.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	4	3	20	93	23	9	0	24.7%	9.7%	0.0%	3.98	2.24	+0.6
ROS	24	MLB	MIN	40	—	40	167	41	19	4	24.6%	11.1%	2.5%	4.66	3.81	+0.5
2026 Total	24	MLB	MIN	—	—	60	260	64	28	4	24.6%	10.6%	1.6%	4.43	3.28	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	MIN	24	24	134	564	139	57	14	24.7%	10.2%	2.5%	4.45	4.07	+1.9
2028	26	MLB	MIN	26	26	140	593	147	59	15	24.7%	10.0%	2.6%	4.22	4.06	+2.0
2029	27	MLB	MIN	26	26	143	605	149	60	16	24.6%	9.9%	2.6%	4.14	4.08	+2.0
2030	28	MLB	MIN	26	26	143	605	148	60	16	24.5%	9.9%	2.6%	4.12	4.11	+1.9
2031	29	MLB	MIN	25	25	140	591	142	59	16	24.0%	9.9%	2.7%	4.16	4.18	+1.8
2032	30	MLB	MIN	25	25	136	573	134	58	16	23.4%	10.0%	2.7%	4.23	4.28	+1.6
2033	31	MLB	MIN	24	24	131	553	126	56	16	22.9%	10.2%	2.8%	4.32	4.38	+1.4
2034	32	MLB	MIN	23	23	126	531	118	55	15	22.2%	10.3%	2.9%	4.43	4.50	+1.1
2035	33	MLB	MIN	22	22	120	507	109	53	15	21.6%	10.5%	3.0%	4.55	4.62	+0.9
2036	34	MLB	MIN	21	21	114	482	101	52	15	20.9%	10.7%	3.1%	4.68	4.76	+0.7
2037	35	MLB	MIN	20	20	108	454	91	50	14	20.1%	10.9%	3.2%	4.82	4.92	+0.5
2038	36	MLB	MIN	18	18	100	424	82	47	14	19.4%	11.2%	3.3%	4.98	5.08	+0.3
2039	37	MLB	MIN	17	17	93	394	73	45	14	18.5%	11.4%	3.4%	5.14	5.25	-0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			116	113	533	2322	523	309	68	22.5%	13.3%	2.9%	4.38	4.50	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—			44	42	200	872	196	116	26	22.5%	13.3%	2.9%	4.38	4.50	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mick Abel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	24.5%	11.4%	3.0%	—	4.07	24.7%	14.7%	417	-0.40	—	—	—
Brad Goldberg R 2027 · 4.07 FIP	25	SW	4.07	18.2%	11.7%	1.9%	.333	3.87	21.4%	7.2%	139	-0.20	3.14	197	88
Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SW	3.87	17.8%	9.8%	1.9%	.309	3.25	24.8%	15.5%	104	-0.62	2.78	312	87
Parker Markel R 2026 · 4.67 FIP	24	SW	4.67	13.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.313	3.19	15.9%	6.2%	61	-1.48	3.19	266	87
Juan Paniagua R 2027 · 4.69 FIP	25	SW	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.58	151	86
Scott Oberg R 2027 · 5.16 FIP	25	SW	5.16	17.0%	11.2%	3.8%	.273	2.95	22.8%	15.6%	188	-2.21	2.59	302	86
Jairo Díaz R 2026 · 4.54 FIP	24	SW	4.54	18.8%	13.6%	2.4%	.281	3.31	20.2%	10.3%	18	-1.23	2.97	190	85
Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	20.6%	12.6%	2.8%	.290	4.91	17.8%	11.6%	162	+0.41	4.50	217	85
David Trexler R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	24	SW	4.58	17.7%	13.4%	2.3%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.14	4.44	100	85
José Ramírez R 2027 · 4.03 FIP	25	SW	4.03	19.5%	12.2%	1.9%	.312	3.94	22.4%	11.8%	136	-0.09	3.36	206	85
Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.74	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.64	4.10	105	85
Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	24	SW	4.56	18.5%	12.2%	2.7%	.237	5.00	19.2%	4.7%	56	+0.44	4.56	120	85
Angel Nesbitt R 2026 · 4.26 FIP	24	SW	4.26	14.0%	9.7%	2.0%	.335	3.63	15.4%	8.2%	44	-0.63	3.63	106	85
Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.73 FIP	24	SW	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	84
Darin Gillies R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	24	SW	4.22	15.0%	10.8%	1.8%	.270	4.95	22.5%	12.9%	124	+0.73	4.22	295	84
Ryan Ledbetter R 2026 · 4.75 FIP	24	SW	4.75	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.75	124	84
David Griffin R 2027 · 4.42 FIP	25	SW	4.42	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.32	15.6%	5.5%	168	+0.90	4.42	239	84
Nefi Ogando R 2028 · 3.87 FIP	26	SW	3.87	17.0%	11.6%	1.4%	.266	4.12	14.7%	3.1%	40	+0.25	3.87	103	84
Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.63	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.36	4.27	328	84
Jake Barrett R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	24	SW	3.67	18.2%	10.5%	1.4%	.367	3.99	22.9%	11.6%	162	+0.32	1.48	230	84
Matt Marsh R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	24	SW	4.15	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.68	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.47	3.13	143	84

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.291 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$16M	+$15M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$17M	+$16M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+2.0	$17M	+$12M
2030	Arb-2	$10M	+1.9	$17M	+$7M
2031	Arb-3	$14M	+1.8	$17M	+$3M
Totals		$32M		$86M	+$54M