Mick Abel
P
Minnesota Twins
Age 24
RHP
6'5" / 190 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.7 · 2028
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 73 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10999vR 90
ERA3.93
FIP3.92
K%24.3%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%12.5%
ROS IP73
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5494.8
Whiff%
p7228.8%
K%
p6424.7%
xwOBA vs
p190.349
CH+1.0 (18%)
SL (24%)
SI (3%)
CU (12%)
FB-2.0 (46%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 14 | 14 | 45 | 189 | 66 | 27 | 5 | 100% | 3.2 | 25.8% | 16.9% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.43 | 4.97 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 14 | 14 | 45 | 189 | 66 | 27 | 5 | 100% | 3.2 | 34.9% | 14.3% | 20.6% | 2.6% | 4.43 | 3.41 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 108 | 471 | 130 | 50 | 11 | 100% | 4.7 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 3.90 | 4.60 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 108 | 471 | 130 | 50 | 11 | 100% | 4.7 | 27.6% | 10.6% | 17.0% | 2.3% | 3.90 | 3.40 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 113 | 482 | 132 | 65 | 15 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.3% | 14.9% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 4.13 | 5.07 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 113 | 482 | 132 | 65 | 15 | 100% | 4.9 | 27.4% | 13.5% | 13.9% | 3.1% | 4.13 | 4.21 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 24 | 24 | 109 | 515 | 117 | 78 | 15 | 100% | 4.5 | 20.0% | 15.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 6.46 | 5.22 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 24 | 24 | 109 | 515 | 117 | 78 | 15 | 100% | 4.5 | 22.7% | 15.1% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 6.46 | 4.89 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 137 | 572 | 153 | 56 | 14 | 93% | 4.9 | 24.4% | 10.1% | 14.2% | 2.2% | 3.34 | 3.51 | +3.0 |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 137 | 572 | 153 | 56 | 14 | 93% | 4.9 | 26.7% | 9.8% | 17.0% | 2.4% | 3.34 | 3.42 | +3.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 6 | 5 | 28 | 123 | 33 | 9 | 1 | 83% | 4.7 | 24.7% | 9.7% | 15.1% | 0.0% | 3.18 | 2.24 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 73 | 310 | 75 | 37 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.3% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 2.5% | 3.93 | 3.92 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 73 | 308 | 75 | 36 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.3% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 2.5% | 3.93 | 3.92 | +0.8 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 102 | 433 | 108 | 46 | 9 | — | — | 25.0% | 10.5% | 14.5% | 2.0% | 3.72 | 3.45 | +2.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 94 | 396 | 108 | 46 | 9 | — | — | 27.4% | 11.5% | 15.9% | 2.2% | 4.04 | 3.47 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 29 | 29 | 171 | 723 | 177 | 78 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.4% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 2.5% | 4.22 | 4.17 | +2.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 29 | 29 | 175 | 739 | 181 | 78 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.4% | 10.6% | 13.9% | 2.5% | 4.18 | 4.15 | +2.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 29 | 29 | 172 | 728 | 177 | 76 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 2.6% | 4.19 | 4.20 | +2.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 29 | 29 | 172 | 728 | 176 | 77 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.1% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +2.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 27 | 27 | 165 | 695 | 164 | 75 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.44 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 26 | 26 | 155 | 653 | 149 | 73 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.65 | +1.4 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 144 | 609 | 135 | 70 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.1% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.88 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 28 | 28 | 163 | 688 | 168 | 75 | 17 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.4% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 2.5% | 4.23 | 4.18 | +2.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 28 | 28 | 166 | 701 | 171 | 74 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.4% | 10.6% | 13.9% | 2.6% | 4.19 | 4.16 | +2.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 27 | 27 | 164 | 692 | 168 | 73 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.21 | +2.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 27 | 27 | 164 | 692 | 167 | 73 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.1% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 4.29 | +2.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 155 | 71 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.45 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 142 | 69 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.66 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 128 | 66 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.1% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.89 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 210 | 207 | 1230 | 5209 | 1237 | 563 | 146 | 99% | 5.9 | 23.7% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.00 | +20.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 847 | 201 | 92 | 24 | 99% | 5.8 | 23.7% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.00 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 118 | 115 | 541 | 2352 | 530 | 312 | 68 | 97% | 4.6 | 22.5% | 13.3% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.47 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 43 | 200 | 870 | 196 | 116 | 25 | 97% | 4.6 | 22.5% | 13.3% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mick Abel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 24.1% | 12.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.17 | 24.4% | 13.8% | 519 | -0.44 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 81 |
| Cole Sands R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.57 | 23.3% | 11.5% | 1.8% | .269 | 3.64 | 25.1% | 17.3% | 216 | +0.07 | 2.28 | 473 | 79 |
| Trent Palmer R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 78 |
| Yoel Tejeda Jr. R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.66 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 1.5% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 158 | 78 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 78 |
| Shohei Ohtani R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.52 | 29.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.23 | 29.3% | 21.4% | 130 | -0.29 | 1.85 | 613 | 77 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 75 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 74 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2029 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 74 |
| Michael Forret R 2024 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.32 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 3.0% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 253 | 74 |
| Tyson Hardin R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.45 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 177 | 74 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.59 | 26.4% | 10.6% | 2.5% | .333 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 17.2% | 345 | -0.39 | 2.15 | 702 | 74 |
| Angel Jimenez R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.95 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 194 | 74 |
| Jaron DeBerry R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.03 | 21.2% | 13.0% | 3.8% | .249 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 175 | 73 |
| Burch Smith R 2029 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 73 |
| Shane Davis R 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.08 | 20.9% | 14.2% | 1.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 129 | 73 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 73 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.65 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 4.28 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 389 | -0.37 | 3.21 | 630 | 73 |
| Shane McCarthy R 2025 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.96 | 21.6% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.81 | 18.9% | 7.0% | 29 | +1.85 | 2.07 | 117 | 73 |
| Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 158 | 23.8% | 10.9% | 1.09 | 4.36 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Trevor Bauer ('21) | 7 | 159 | 26.8% | 8.7% | 1.13 | 3.68 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |
| Chris Archer ('22) | 6 | 164 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 1.21 | 4.10 |