Mick Abel

P Minnesota Twins

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.8 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	AAAPHI	24	24	109	6.46	4.89	22.7%	15.1%	—	K 19.5% · BB 13.6% · FIP 4.95
2025	23	MIX2 levels	28	26	137	3.34	3.42	26.7%	9.8%	3.3	K 24.0% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.50
2026	24	MIX2 levels	6	5	28	3.18	2.18	26.8%	7.3%	1.2	K 24.7% · BB 9.7% · FIP 2.24
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIN	14	14	80	4.41	4.21	24.3%	10.5%	1.1
2028PROJ86% MLB	26	MLBMIN	17	17	103	4.29	4.20	24.3%	10.2%	1.5
2029PROJ90% MLB	27	MLBMIN	15	15	88	4.26	4.24	24.1%	10.1%	1.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.291First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$4M2030Arb-2$6M2031Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%64

FB Velo54

xwOBA vs19

CompsDylan DeLucia (age 23) · Shohei Ohtani (age 24) · Ryan Jennings (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.41

FIP4.21

K%24.3%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%13.9%

Proj IP101

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$26M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p7228.8%

p6424.7%

xwOBA vs

p190.349

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.291 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$9M	+$8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$11M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+1.2	$8M	+$5M
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+1.0	$6M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$6M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$11M		$37M	+$26M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	14	14	45	189	66	27	5	100%	3.2	25.8%	16.9%	9.0%	3.5%	4.43	4.95	—
2021	19	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	14	14	45	189	66	27	5	100%	3.2	34.9%	14.3%	20.6%	2.6%	4.43	3.41	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	108	471	130	50	11	100%	4.7	21.5%	12.1%	9.4%	3.0%	3.90	4.47	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	108	471	130	50	11	100%	4.7	27.6%	10.6%	17.0%	2.3%	3.90	3.40	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	113	482	132	65	15	100%	4.9	22.3%	14.9%	7.4%	3.7%	4.13	5.16	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	113	482	132	65	15	100%	4.9	27.4%	13.5%	13.9%	3.1%	4.13	4.21	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	24	24	109	515	117	78	15	100%	4.5	19.5%	13.6%	5.9%	3.2%	6.46	4.95	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	24	24	109	515	117	78	15	100%	4.5	19.5%	13.6%	5.9%	3.2%	6.46	4.95	—
2024	22	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	24	24	109	515	117	78	15	100%	4.5	22.7%	15.1%	7.6%	2.9%	6.46	4.89	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	137	572	153	56	14	93%	4.9	24.0%	9.1%	14.9%	2.3%	3.34	3.50	+3.2
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	137	572	153	56	14	93%	4.9	24.0%	9.1%	14.9%	2.3%	3.34	3.50	+3.2
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	137	572	153	56	14	93%	4.9	26.7%	9.8%	17.0%	2.4%	3.34	3.42	+3.3
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	5	28	123	33	9	1	83%	4.7	24.7%	9.7%	15.1%	0.0%	3.18	2.24	+1.2
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	5	28	123	33	9	1	83%	4.7	24.7%	9.7%	15.1%	0.0%	3.18	2.24	+1.2
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	5	28	123	33	9	1	83%	4.7	26.8%	7.3%	19.5%	0.8%	3.18	2.18	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			14	11	59	267	62	25	8	79%	4.2	23.2%	9.4%	13.9%	3.0%	5.46	4.03	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIN	14	14	80	338	82	35	9	100%	5.7	24.3%	10.5%	13.9%	2.6%	4.41	4.21	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	119	504	123	51	14	100%	6.0	24.3%	10.2%	14.2%	2.7%	4.28	4.19	+1.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	16	16	98	413	100	41	11	100%	6.1	24.1%	10.1%	14.1%	2.8%	4.25	4.23	+1.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	86	361	86	36	10	100%	6.1	23.9%	10.1%	13.8%	2.9%	4.29	4.32	+1.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	73	308	72	32	9	100%	6.1	23.3%	10.3%	13.0%	3.0%	4.40	4.47	+0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	59	250	56	26	8	100%	5.9	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	3.2%	4.57	4.68	+0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	MIN	8	8	45	191	42	21	7	100%	5.7	21.8%	10.9%	10.9%	3.4%	4.78	4.91	+0.3
2034	32	MLB MLE	MIN	5	5	32	136	29	15	5	100%	6.5	21.0%	11.3%	9.7%	3.7%	5.01	5.17	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	17	17	103	435	106	44	12	100%	6.1	24.3%	10.2%	14.2%	2.7%	4.29	4.20	+1.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	15	15	88	372	90	37	10	100%	5.9	24.1%	10.1%	14.1%	2.8%	4.26	4.24	+1.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	78	329	79	33	10	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.1%	13.8%	2.9%	4.30	4.33	+1.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	68	287	67	29	9	100%	6.2	23.3%	10.3%	13.0%	3.0%	4.41	4.48	+0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	55	232	52	25	8	100%	6.1	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	3.2%	4.58	4.69	+0.5
2033	31	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	43	182	40	20	6	100%	6.1	21.8%	10.9%	10.9%	3.5%	4.79	4.92	+0.2
2034	32	MLB CTX	MIN	5	5	31	131	27	15	5	100%	6.2	21.0%	11.3%	9.7%	3.7%	5.02	5.18	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		92	89	525	2234	522	228	67	97%	5.7	23.4%	10.2%	13.2%	3.0%	4.55	4.06	+8.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	851	199	87	26	97%	5.7	23.4%	10.2%	13.2%	3.0%	4.55	4.06	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		118	115	541	2352	526	295	69	97%	4.6	22.3%	12.5%	9.8%	2.9%	4.33	4.40	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	43	200	870	194	109	25	97%	4.6	22.3%	12.5%	9.8%	2.9%	4.33	4.40	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 8 IPFIP 2.11 → 2.69 (+0.58)K% 33.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.860	28.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×0.900	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.67%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.11 → 2.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 98 IPFIP 2.78 → 2.89 (+0.11)K% 28.6% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.64%	—	×0.860	24.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.05%	—	×0.900	9.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.51%	÷1.253	×1.100	1.32%

Result: FIP 2.78 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 109 IPFIP 4.70 → 4.95 (+0.26)K% 22.7% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.72%	—	×0.860	19.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.15%	—	×0.900	13.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.91%	÷0.989	×1.100	3.24%

Result: FIP 4.70 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAReading Fightin Phils · 109 IPFIP 4.29 → 5.16 (+0.87)K% 27.5% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.51%	—	×0.810	22.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.54%	—	×1.100	14.89%
HR / BF /BF	3.28%	÷1.050	×1.200	3.74%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 4.29 → 5.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 5 IPFIP 2.57 → 2.71 (+0.14)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×0.900	11.25%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.028	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.57 → 2.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 85 IPFIP 2.94 → 4.04 (+1.10)K% 27.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.69%	—	×0.770	21.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.22%	—	×1.150	11.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷0.881	×1.250	2.29%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 2.94 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAReading Fightin Phils · 23 IPFIP 5.10 → 6.09 (+0.99)K% 27.3% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.810	22.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.12%	—	×1.100	13.33%
HR / BF /BF	5.05%	÷1.051	×1.200	5.77%

Result: FIP 5.10 → 6.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AClearwater Threshers · 45 IPFIP 3.41 → 4.95 (+1.54)K% 34.9% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.92%	—	×0.740	25.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.180	16.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷0.993	×1.300	3.46%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 3.41 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mick Abel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.21	24.3%	10.5%	2.6%	—	4.24	24.1%	14.0%	302	+0.03	—	—	—
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	78
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	77
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	76
Peter Van Loon R 2024 · 3.27 FIP	25	SP	3.27	25.5%	11.9%	1.5%	.303	4.20	21.0%	10.9%	53	+0.93	2.51	256	76
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	75
Jesse Hahn R 2014 · 3.15 FIP	25	SP	3.15	22.9%	10.1%	1.3%	.264	3.99	14.9%	6.0%	304	+0.84	2.19	499	74
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	74
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	73
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	73
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	73
Stephen Fife R 2012 · 3.87 FIP	25	SP	3.87	17.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.284	3.94	17.4%	10.4%	58	+0.07	3.11	264	73
Jared Lyons R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP	4.72	22.1%	14.4%	3.0%	.258	4.13	17.6%	8.7%	173	-0.59	3.28	265	72
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	72
River Ryan R 2024 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	23.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.280	2.44	22.7%	18.1%	41	-0.74	2.44	223	72
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	71
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	71
Justin Dunn R 2021 · 4.44 FIP	25	SP	4.44	22.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.231	6.06	16.1%	3.2%	60	+1.62	3.54	607	71
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.41	21.2%	12.3%	382	+0.03	3.64	556	71
Juan Nicasio R 2012 · 3.69 FIP	25	SP	3.69	21.0%	8.2%	2.4%	.371	3.94	18.0%	9.8%	310	+0.25	2.46	719	71
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	68	23.6%	10.3%	1.13	4.51
Dave Hamilton ('72-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.5	78	21.3%*	10.2%*	1.13*	4.58*
George Frazier ('78-'87, 2 WAR*)	3.4	68	21.6%*	10.5%*	0.92*	4.42*
Wes Gardner ('84-'91, -0 WAR*)	2.3	78	23.2%*	10.4%*	1.24*	5.03*
Chris Stratton ('25)	3.1	69	21.0%	9.5%	1.02	4.64
Manny Parra ('15)	3.1	78	20.8%	10.6%	1.00	4.90
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06