Angel Arredondo
3B Rancho Cucamonga Quakes| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROKTEX | 107 | .184/.415/.263 | 1 | 2 | 49 | — | .131/.311/.190 |
| 2025 | 18 | A/ROKTEX | 183 | .270/.400/.324 | 0 | 4 | 58 | — | .218/.312/.256 |
| 2026 | 19 | ALAA | 468 | .255/.375/.395 | 9 | 5 | 72 | — | .207/.302/.314 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 20 | MLBLAA | 557 | .223/.314/.319 | 7 | 6 | 83 | 0.4 | |
| 2028PROJ43% MLB | 21 | MLBLAA | 184 | .228/.319/.337 | 3 | 3 | 90 | 0.3 | |
| 2029PROJ61% MLB | 22 | MLBLAA | 289 | .232/.323/.351 | 5 | 4 | 94 | 0.5 |
Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 107 | 76 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 184 | 415 | 263 | 678 | 79 | 250 | 22 | 22 | 338 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 23 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 87 | 45 | 132 | 91 | 48 | 4 | 70 | -84 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 160 | 126 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 310 | 446 | 373 | 819 | 63 | 375 | 15 | 16 | 376 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 468 | 392 | 100 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 66 | 85 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 255 | 375 | 395 | 770 | 140 | 305 | 18 | 14 | 351 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 107 | 84 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 131 | 311 | 190 | 502 | 60 | 197 | 33 | 15 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 23 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 87 | 45 | 132 | 87 | 65 | 4 | 44 | -84 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 160 | 136 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 243 | 344 | 287 | 631 | 44 | 307 | 22 | 9 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 468 | 411 | 85 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 47 | 116 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 207 | 302 | 314 | 616 | 107 | 267 | 25 | 10 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 107 | 84 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 131 | 311 | 190 | 502 | 60 | 204 | 33 | 15 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK RAW | ACL Rangers | — | 107 | 76 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 184 | 415 | 263 | 678 | 79 | 250 | 22 | 22 | 338 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 183 | 158 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 50 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 209 | 306 | 247 | 552 | 38 | 300 | 27 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 183 | 148 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 35 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 270 | 400 | 324 | 724 | 54 | 348 | 19 | 14 | 337 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 468 | 411 | 85 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 47 | 116 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 207 | 302 | 314 | 616 | 107 | 271 | 25 | 10 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A RAW | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 468 | 392 | 100 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 66 | 85 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 255 | 375 | 395 | 770 | 140 | 305 | 18 | 14 | 351 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 107 | 84 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 131 | 311 | 190 | 502 | 60 | 197 | 33 | 15 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 183 | 159 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 50 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 208 | 306 | 245 | 551 | 38 | 279 | 27 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 468 | 409 | 85 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 47 | 116 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 208 | 302 | 315 | 617 | 108 | 267 | 25 | 10 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 107 | 84 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 131 | 311 | 190 | 502 | 60 | 197 | 33 | 15 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 183 | 159 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 50 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 208 | 306 | 245 | 551 | 38 | 279 | 27 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 468 | 409 | 85 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 47 | 116 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 208 | 302 | 315 | 617 | 108 | 267 | 25 | 10 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB MLE | LAA | 0% | 557 | 487 | 109 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 55 | 126 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 223 | 314 | 319 | 634 | 96 | 284 | 23 | 10 | 291 | 83 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +12 | 0.4 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 21 | MLB MLE | LAA | 43% | 427 | 373 | 86 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 43 | 94 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 229 | 321 | 340 | 660 | 111 | 286 | 22 | 10 | 301 | 90 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +9 | 0.6 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB MLE | LAA | 61% | 475 | 416 | 97 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 48 | 103 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 233 | 324 | 354 | 678 | 120 | 287 | 22 | 10 | 308 | 94 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +10 | 0.9 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB MLE | LAA | 68% | 528 | 461 | 110 | 21 | 3 | 11 | 53 | 113 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 236 | 327 | 363 | 689 | 127 | 288 | 21 | 10 | 312 | 97 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +11 | 1.2 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB MLE | LAA | 70% | 578 | 505 | 120 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 58 | 123 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 238 | 328 | 369 | 697 | 131 | 289 | 21 | 10 | 315 | 99 | -1 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +13 | 1.5 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB MLE | LAA | 70% | 590 | 516 | 124 | 24 | 3 | 13 | 59 | 126 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 239 | 328 | 372 | 701 | 133 | 289 | 21 | 10 | 316 | 100 | +0 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +13 | 1.6 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB MLE | LAA | 71% | 599 | 524 | 125 | 24 | 3 | 13 | 60 | 128 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 239 | 328 | 372 | 700 | 133 | 289 | 21 | 10 | 316 | 100 | -0 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +13 | 1.6 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB MLE | LAA | 69% | 596 | 521 | 124 | 24 | 3 | 13 | 60 | 128 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 238 | 327 | 369 | 697 | 132 | 288 | 21 | 10 | 315 | 99 | -1 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +13 | 1.5 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB MLE | LAA | 69% | 585 | 512 | 121 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 59 | 127 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 236 | 325 | 365 | 690 | 129 | 287 | 22 | 10 | 312 | 97 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +13 | 1.3 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB MLE | LAA | 67% | 568 | 497 | 117 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 57 | 125 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 234 | 323 | 359 | 682 | 125 | 286 | 22 | 10 | 309 | 95 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +12 | 1.0 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB MLE | LAA | 66% | 552 | 484 | 111 | 21 | 2 | 11 | 55 | 123 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 231 | 320 | 351 | 671 | 120 | 285 | 22 | 10 | 304 | 92 | -5 | -0 | -2 | +2 | +12 | 0.6 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB MLE | LAA | 65% | 534 | 469 | 106 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 52 | 121 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 227 | 315 | 342 | 657 | 115 | 282 | 23 | 10 | 299 | 88 | -7 | -2 | -3 | +2 | +12 | 0.2 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB MLE | LAA | 70% | 511 | 450 | 101 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 49 | 118 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 222 | 309 | 329 | 638 | 108 | 279 | 23 | 10 | 291 | 83 | -10 | -10 | -4 | +2 | +11 | -1.1 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB CTX | LAA | 43% | 184 | 161 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 41 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 228 | 319 | 337 | 656 | 110 | 283 | 22 | 10 | 300 | 90 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB CTX | LAA | 61% | 289 | 253 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 63 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 232 | 323 | 351 | 675 | 120 | 284 | 22 | 10 | 306 | 94 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB CTX | LAA | 68% | 360 | 315 | 74 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 77 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 235 | 325 | 361 | 686 | 126 | 285 | 21 | 10 | 311 | 97 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +8 | 0.8 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB CTX | LAA | 70% | 402 | 352 | 83 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 86 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 237 | 327 | 367 | 694 | 130 | 286 | 21 | 10 | 313 | 99 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +9 | 1.0 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB CTX | LAA | 70% | 414 | 363 | 86 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 88 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 238 | 327 | 370 | 697 | 133 | 286 | 21 | 10 | 315 | 100 | +0 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +9 | 1.1 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB CTX | LAA | 71% | 423 | 371 | 88 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 90 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 237 | 327 | 370 | 697 | 133 | 286 | 21 | 10 | 315 | 100 | -0 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +9 | 1.1 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB CTX | LAA | 69% | 413 | 362 | 85 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 89 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 236 | 326 | 367 | 694 | 131 | 286 | 22 | 10 | 313 | 99 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +9 | 1.1 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB CTX | LAA | 69% | 402 | 353 | 83 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 87 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 235 | 324 | 363 | 687 | 128 | 285 | 22 | 10 | 311 | 97 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +9 | 0.9 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB CTX | LAA | 67% | 380 | 333 | 77 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 83 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 232 | 322 | 357 | 678 | 124 | 284 | 22 | 10 | 307 | 95 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB CTX | LAA | 66% | 363 | 318 | 73 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 81 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 230 | 318 | 349 | 668 | 120 | 283 | 22 | 10 | 303 | 92 | -3 | -0 | -1 | +1 | +8 | 0.4 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB CTX | LAA | 65% | 348 | 306 | 68 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 34 | 79 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 226 | 314 | 340 | 653 | 114 | 280 | 23 | 10 | 297 | 88 | -5 | -1 | -2 | +1 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB CTX | LAA | 70% | 360 | 317 | 70 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 83 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 220 | 308 | 327 | 635 | 107 | 277 | 23 | 10 | 290 | 83 | -7 | -7 | -2 | +1 | +8 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 4338 | 3804 | 882 | 163 | 20 | 88 | 430 | 947 | 70 | 57 | 43 | 232 | 321 | 355 | 676 | 123 | 284 | 22 | 10 | 308 | 92 | -25 | -6 | -7 | +15 | +94 | 7.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 570 | 132 | 24 | 3 | 13 | 64 | 142 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 232 | 319 | 353 | 672 | 121 | 285 | 22 | 10 | 308 | 92 | -4 | -1 | -1 | +2 | +14 | 1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 7511 | 6564 | 1511 | 288 | 36 | 142 | 753 | 1677 | 131 | 98 | 71 | 230 | 322 | 350 | 672 | 120 | 286 | 22 | 10 | 304 | 92 | -44 | -8 | -10 | +24 | +146 | 11.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 568 | 130 | 25 | 3 | 12 | 65 | 145 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 229 | 319 | 347 | 666 | 118 | 285 | 22 | 10 | 304 | 92 | -4 | -1 | -1 | +2 | +14 | 1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 468 PAwOBA .342 → .275 (−68)K% 18.2% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.16% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 10.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.92% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 19.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 5.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.42% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .342 → .275; ISO .140 → .113; BABIP .305 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Rangers · 160 PAwOBA .372 → .283 (−89)K% 15.0% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.00% | ÷0.981 | ×1.440 | — | — | 22.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.62% | ÷1.016 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 9.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.75% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.37% | ÷0.991 | ×0.820 | ×1.010 | ×1.008 | 26.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.017 | ×0.720 | ×1.010 | ×1.008 | 4.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.98% | ÷1.138 | ×0.720 | ×1.010 | ×1.008 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.302 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 160, 1B 98, 2B 103, 3B 128, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .372 → .283; ISO .063 → .046; BABIP .375 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AHickory Crawdads · 23 PAwOBA .068 → .044 (−24)K% 47.8% → 66.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 47.83% | ÷0.981 | ×1.360 | — | — | 66.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.35% | ÷1.051 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 2.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.045 | 8.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.123 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.039 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.037 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 125, 3B 108, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .068 → .044; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .091 → .087. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Rangers · 107 PAwOBA .334 → .240 (−95)K% 22.4% → 32.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.43% | ÷0.993 | ×1.440 | — | — | 32.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.43% | ÷0.971 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 14.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.61% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 4.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.23% | ÷1.014 | ×0.820 | ×0.985 | ×1.022 | 15.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.77% | ÷1.011 | ×0.720 | ×0.985 | ×1.022 | 4.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.985 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.040 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 1.48% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 99, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .334 → .240; ISO .079 → .059; BABIP .250 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).