Noah Mendlinger

3B Memphis Redbirds

Age 26 L/R 5'7" / 180 lbs AAA HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1412ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	23	AASTL	401	.282/.358/.338	0	4	81	—	.267/.330/.320
2025	24	AAA/AASTL	463	.282/.402/.355	1	12	103	—	.273/.367/.341
2026	25	AAA/AASTL	454	.282/.399/.378	4	3	96	—	.260/.350/.339
2027PROJ10% MLB	26	MLBSTL	16	.258/.343/.333	0	0	95	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBSTL	84	.257/.341/.334	0	1	95	0.1
2029PROJ52% MLB	28	MLBSTL	132	.254/.338/.333	1	1	93	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Whiff%93

Z-Con%92

K%90

Chase%78

Max EV61

BB%42

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsAlden Carrithers (age 26) · Greg Garcia (age 27) · Taylor Dugas (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†95

AVG/OBP/SLG.258 / .343 / .333

PA16

HR0

K%12

BB%6

BABIP306

ISO67

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT60

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	20	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	100	80	22	5	1	0	18	14	2	0	2	275	420	362	782	87	333	14	18	365	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	284	224	55	9	1	2	41	42	11	8	3	246	388	321	709	76	290	15	14	327	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	401	321	96	16	1	4	55	43	16	5	5	299	426	393	819	93	331	11	14	370	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	57	40	10	1	1	1	10	8	5	2	3	250	455	400	855	150	281	14	18	385	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	401	355	100	20	0	0	29	50	13	4	4	282	358	338	696	56	326	12	7	319	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	102	83	24	6	2	1	11	8	6	2	2	289	410	446	856	157	303	8	11	379	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	361	297	83	13	1	0	46	34	14	10	4	279	399	330	729	51	313	9	13	341	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	255	214	61	10	2	2	29	32	8	1	1	285	390	379	769	93	324	13	11	349	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	199	159	44	10	0	2	32	18	4	2	4	277	410	377	788	101	294	9	16	358	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	20	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	100	86	21	4	1	0	12	18	2	0	2	244	350	314	664	70	308	18	12	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	284	235	55	8	1	2	30	50	11	8	3	234	348	302	650	68	271	18	11	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	401	337	98	15	1	3	39	53	16	5	5	291	390	368	758	77	321	13	10	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	57	43	10	1	1	1	7	11	5	2	3	233	400	372	772	140	249	19	12	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	401	363	97	19	0	0	21	65	13	4	4	267	330	320	650	52	317	16	5	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	102	87	24	5	2	1	7	10	6	2	2	276	370	414	784	138	296	10	7	358	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	361	312	85	13	1	0	32	42	14	10	4	272	366	321	686	48	306	12	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	255	223	60	9	2	1	20	39	8	1	1	269	351	341	691	72	313	15	8	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	199	169	42	9	0	2	22	22	4	2	4	249	349	337	686	89	261	11	11	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	100	86	21	4	1	0	12	18	2	0	2	244	350	314	664	70	309	18	12	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	100	80	22	5	1	0	18	14	2	0	2	275	420	362	782	87	333	14	18	365	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	284	235	55	8	1	2	30	50	11	8	3	234	348	302	650	68	285	18	11	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	—	284	224	55	9	1	2	41	42	11	8	3	246	388	321	709	76	290	15	14	327	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	458	380	108	16	2	4	46	64	21	7	8	284	391	368	760	84	328	14	10	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	458	361	106	17	2	5	65	51	21	7	8	294	430	393	823	100	326	11	14	372	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	401	363	97	19	0	0	21	65	13	4	4	267	330	320	650	52	323	16	5	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	—	401	355	100	20	0	0	29	50	13	4	4	282	358	338	696	56	326	12	7	319	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	463	399	110	18	4	1	39	52	20	12	6	276	369	348	717	73	311	11	8	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	463	380	107	19	3	1	57	42	20	12	6	282	402	355	757	74	311	9	12	349	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	454	392	102	18	2	3	42	60	12	3	5	260	350	339	689	79	296	13	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	454	373	105	20	2	4	61	50	12	3	5	282	399	378	777	97	311	11	13	353	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	100	86	21	4	1	0	12	18	2	0	2	244	350	314	664	70	308	18	12	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	284	241	55	8	1	2	30	50	11	8	3	228	348	295	642	66	271	18	11	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	458	388	108	16	2	4	46	64	21	7	8	278	391	361	752	82	312	14	10	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	401	364	97	19	0	0	21	65	13	4	4	266	330	319	649	52	317	16	5	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	463	401	110	18	4	1	39	52	20	12	6	274	369	347	716	72	304	11	8	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	454	397	102	18	2	3	42	60	12	3	5	257	350	335	685	78	290	13	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	401	364	97	19	0	0	21	65	13	4	4	266	330	319	649	52	317	16	5	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	463	401	110	18	4	1	39	52	20	12	6	274	369	347	716	72	304	11	8	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	454	397	102	18	2	3	42	60	12	3	5	257	350	335	685	78	290	13	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	STL	10%	380	334	86	16	2	2	32	58	11	5	3	257	342	331	672	74	303	15	8	309	95	-2	-0	+0	+1	+8	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	STL	10%	16	15	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	258	343	333	676	75	306	12	6	310	95	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	STL	38%	225	198	50	9	1	1	19	36	6	2	2	255	340	332	671	77	302	16	8	308	95	-1	-0	+0	+1	+5	0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	STL	52%	253	223	56	10	1	2	21	41	7	2	2	253	337	331	667	78	301	16	8	306	93	-2	-0	-1	+1	+5	0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	STL	57%	263	232	58	11	1	2	22	45	7	1	2	250	333	328	661	78	299	17	8	303	91	-3	-1	-1	+1	+6	0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	STL	60%	269	237	59	11	1	2	23	47	7	0	2	246	329	324	652	77	297	17	9	299	89	-4	-1	-2	+1	+6	0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	STL	38%	84	75	19	4	0	0	7	13	2	1	1	257	341	334	675	77	305	15	8	310	95	-1	-0	+0	+0	+2	0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	STL	52%	132	116	31	6	1	1	11	22	4	1	1	254	338	333	671	79	303	17	8	308	93	-1	-0	-0	+0	+3	0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	STL	57%	150	132	33	6	1	1	13	25	4	1	1	251	334	330	664	79	302	17	9	305	91	-2	-0	-1	+1	+3	0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	STL	60%	162	143	36	7	1	1	14	28	4	0	1	248	330	326	656	78	299	17	9	301	89	-2	-0	-1	+1	+4	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	528	466	119	23	3	3	45	88	14	3	4	255	339	337	676	82	307	17	9	305	95	-5	-1	-2	+2	+11	0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	147	28	4	4	55	108	17	4	5	256	339	340	679	84	307	17	8	305	95	-7	-1	-3	+2	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	3325	2882	751	130	15	18	288	502	110	41	37	261	350	335	685	74	307	15	9	308	95	-11	-2	-4	+4	+25	1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	563	147	25	3	4	56	98	22	8	7	261	351	337	688	76	307	15	9	308	95	-6	-1	-2	+2	+14	0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 255 PAwOBA .343 → .314 (−29)K% 12.5% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.55%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	15.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.37%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.018	7.99%
HBP% /PA	3.14%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	3.00%
Singles /BIP	25.82%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.040	×1.018	25.42%
Doubles /BIP	5.49%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.040	×1.018	4.83%
Triples /BIP	1.10%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.040	×1.018	1.13%
Home runs /BIP	1.10%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.018	0.78%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .343 → .314; ISO .093 → .083; BABIP .324 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 199 PAwOBA .357 → .306 (−51)K% 9.0% → 11.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.05%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	11.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.08%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.988	11.12%
HBP% /PA	2.01%	—	×0.870	—	×0.988	1.73%
Singles /BIP	22.70%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.000	×0.988	20.62%
Doubles /BIP	7.09%	÷1.000	×0.840	×1.000	×0.988	5.88%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.940	×1.000	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.42%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.988	1.12%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .357 → .306; ISO .101 → .088; BABIP .294 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 361 PAwOBA .334 → .310 (−24)K% 9.4% → 11.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.42%	÷0.992	×1.220	—	—	11.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.47%	÷0.987	×0.700	—	×0.998	8.82%
HBP% /PA	3.88%	—	×0.870	—	×0.998	3.37%
Singles /BIP	26.24%	÷0.966	×0.920	×1.033	×0.998	25.76%
Doubles /BIP	4.94%	÷0.916	×0.840	×1.033	×0.998	4.67%
Triples /BIP	0.38%	÷0.900	×0.940	×1.033	×0.998	0.41%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.105	×0.800	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 93, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.

Result: wOBA .334 → .310; ISO .051 → .051; BABIP .313 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 102 PAwOBA .374 → .358 (−16)K% 7.8% → 9.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.84%	÷0.953	×1.200	—	—	9.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.80%	÷0.954	×0.690	—	×1.033	7.33%
HBP% /PA	5.88%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	5.71%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.982	×0.930	×1.028	×1.033	20.12%
Doubles /BIP	8.00%	÷1.033	×0.830	×1.028	×1.033	6.83%
Triples /BIP	2.67%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.028	×1.033	3.05%
Home runs /BIP	1.33%	÷0.869	×0.700	—	×1.033	1.11%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 80, K 91, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .374 → .358; ISO .157 → .154; BABIP .303 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASpringfield Cardinals · 401 PAwOBA .313 → .288 (−25)K% 12.5% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.47%	÷0.943	×1.220	—	—	16.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.23%	÷0.992	×0.700	—	×1.012	5.16%
HBP% /PA	3.24%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	2.85%
Singles /BIP	26.23%	÷0.998	×0.920	×1.050	×1.012	25.69%
Doubles /BIP	6.56%	÷0.940	×0.840	×1.050	×1.012	6.23%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.940	×1.050	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.386	×0.800	—	×1.012	0.00%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 177, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 89, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .313 → .288; ISO .056 → .053; BABIP .326 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASpringfield Cardinals · 401 PAwOBA .365 → .336 (−29)K% 10.7% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.72%	÷0.987	×1.220	—	—	13.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.72%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×1.027	9.83%
HBP% /PA	3.99%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	3.57%
Singles /BIP	26.98%	÷0.997	×0.920	×1.047	×1.027	26.76%
Doubles /BIP	5.76%	÷1.031	×0.840	×1.047	×1.027	5.04%
Triples /BIP	0.36%	÷0.900	×0.940	×1.047	×1.027	0.40%
Home runs /BIP	1.44%	÷1.080	×0.800	—	×1.027	1.09%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.

Result: wOBA .365 → .336; ISO .093 → .084; BABIP .331 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Peoria Chiefs · 57 PAwOBA .384 → .322 (−62)K% 14.0% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.04%	÷0.961	×1.270	—	—	18.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.54%	÷1.065	×0.710	—	×0.998	11.67%
HBP% /PA	8.77%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	6.92%
Singles /BIP	21.88%	÷1.030	×0.920	—	×0.998	19.51%
Doubles /BIP	3.12%	÷0.992	×0.810	—	×0.998	2.55%
Triples /BIP	3.12%	÷0.900	×0.850	—	×0.998	2.95%
Home runs /BIP	3.12%	÷1.093	×0.800	—	×0.998	2.28%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 106, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 92, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .384 → .322; ISO .150 → .137; BABIP .281 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Peoria Chiefs · 284 PAwOBA .323 → .287 (−36)K% 14.8% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.79%	÷1.064	×1.270	—	—	17.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.44%	÷0.992	×0.710	—	×1.012	10.45%
HBP% /PA	3.87%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	3.10%
Singles /BIP	23.63%	÷1.012	×0.920	×1.036	×1.012	22.52%
Doubles /BIP	4.95%	÷0.989	×0.810	×1.036	×1.012	4.25%
Triples /BIP	0.55%	÷0.929	×0.850	×1.036	×1.012	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	1.10%	÷1.114	×0.800	—	×1.012	0.80%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 102, 2B 98, 3B 86, K 113, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .323 → .287; ISO .076 → .067; BABIP .290 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brock Holtlast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,661 PA	4.0	2,661	25	41	262	332	362	+5	+3	7.4	7.8
/162	664	6	10	+1.2	+0.6	1.9	pk7: 8
#2Ramón Vázquezlast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,190 PA	3.3	2,190	22	20	255	330	352	+10	-15	4.1	4.6
/162	664	7	6	+3.0	-4.6	1.3	pk7: 5
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#4Rene Gonzales'84-'97 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	19	23	236*	311*	337*	+4	+11	1.9	2.8
/162	664	7	9	+1.6	+4.2	0.7	pk7: 4
#5Ramon Martinez'98-'09 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,206 PA	3.3	2,206	29	10	252*	308*	353*	+12	-5	1.9	2.8
/162	664	9	3	+3.6	-1.4	0.6	pk7: 4
#6Dave Berg'98-'04 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,781 PA	2.7	1,781	21	8	258*	316*	360*	+4	-9	1.3	1.3
/162	664	8	3	+1.3	-3.4	0.5	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.8	543	3	3	252	331	330	+2	+1	1.1	1.1
/162	664	4	4	+2.4	+1.2	1.3	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Noah Mendlinger (OGILVIE)	26	60	25	50	55	254/339/328	73	303	1	2	15%	8%	95	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alden Carrithers 2011 · AA	26	56→59	35→30	48→55	56	261/339/321	60	311	3	14	16%	10%	93	+0.8	257/323/324	67	296	2	18	13%	9%	86	+0.3	260/325/325	65	293	2	22	11%	8%	85	+0.1
✕Greg Garcia 2017 · MLB	27	53→55	39→40	47→50	52	249/328/335	86	313	6	10	21%	9%	92	+0.7	243/338/337	94	307	7	7	21%	11%	97	+1.1	240/347/331	91	307	6	3	21%	12%	100	+0.7
✕Taylor Dugas 2015 · AAA	25	57→63	36→30	47→50	54	266/345/339	74	313	3	10	15%	9%	99	+1.3	239/306/311	72	291	3	11	18%	7%	78	-0.3	225/290/263	38	273	0	12	16%	7%	59	-0.8
✕Jamie Johnson 2013 · AAA	26	53→56	36→40	46→50	54	249/317/320	71	295	3	11	16%	9%	84	+0.1	243/318/318	75	286	4	15	15%	10%	84	+0.1	241/325/313	72	283	3	16	15%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Brandon Fahey 2007 · MLB	26	55→61	37→40	48→50	50	257/316/331	74	299	4	12	15%	7%	86	+0.3	228/277/306	78	277	4	11	18%	6%	65	-1.2	220/263/291	71	269	2	10	18%	5%	54	-1.3
✕Sergio Perez 2016 · AAA	26	57	38→40	45→50	45	272/320/358	86	334	5	8	20%	6%	93	+0.8	249/296/323	74	307	4	8	19%	6%	76	-0.4	256/292/324	68	311	4	6	18%	4%	74	-0.2
✕Cole Figueroa 2013 · AAA	26	56→59	40	48→50	54	265/325/368	103	288	6	9	10%	7%	97	+1.1	254/308/337	83	274	4	8	9%	7%	84	+0.1	257/310/326	69	275	3	7	8%	7%	80	-0.1
✕James Beresford 2015 · AAA	26	56→65	35→30	47→45	45	264/301/326	61	313	2	8	16%	5%	78	-0.3	268/304/323	55	320	2	5	16%	5%	78	-0.3	280/316/321	41	333	1	2	15%	5%	79	-0.2
✕Luis Borges 2006 · AAA	26	62→66	37→40	48→45	49	296/332/378	82	322	3	7	10%	5%	101	+1.4	269/312/333	64	291	2	5	8%	6%	84	+0.1	301/345/366	65	323	2	3	7%	6%	101	+0.8
✕Eddie Cornejo 2008 · AAA	26	55→59	37→30	41→40	50	259/311/332	74	293	4	5	13%	6%	84	+0.1	240/301/311	71	290	5	7	18%	8%	76	-0.4	245/317/281	35	298	2	3	17%	9%	73	-0.3
✕Brock Holt 2014 · MLB	26	57→67	37→45	48→50	49	270/322/345	74	321	4	12	17%	7%	91	+0.6	264/322/359	95	322	5	13	18%	7%	94	+0.9	266/328/368	102	325	6	12	19%	8%	99	+1.0
✕Ramón Vázquez 2003 · MLB	26	55→58	39→45	51→50	53	259/322/351	92	307	5	9	17%	8%	93	+0.8	244/311/332	88	298	5	10	18%	9%	84	+0.2	238/317/351	114	291	9	2	20%	10%	92	+0.4
✕Luis Guillorme 2019 · MLB	24	57→64	36→40	45	53	267/327/334	67	311	3	5	15%	8%	91	+0.6	263/341/363	100	316	8	7	18%	10%	103	+1.5	269/352/353	84	315	7	3	16%	11%	104	+0.8
✕Nick Madrigal 2023 · MLB	26	56→59	37→40	46→50	50	265/317/340	75	292	4	7	11%	6%	88	+0.4	256/313/353	97	281	6	12	11%	5%	90	+0.6	273/337/360	87	297	4	15	9%	6%	100	+0.9
✕Ramon Soto 2014 · AAA	26	53	37→30	50→45	47	248/302/317	69	296	4	9	17%	6%	78	-0.3	250/305/337	87	315	6	10	21%	6%	83	+0.1	296/339/364	68	375	0	7	20%	5%	99	+0.3
✕Nicky Lopez 2021 · MLB	26	52→62	40	43→55	51	248/306/340	93	280	6	9	14%	7%	84	+0.2	253/317/327	74	295	3	16	14%	8%	85	+0.2	253/321/317	63	295	1	19	14%	8%	85	+0.2
✕Jim Negrych 2011 · AAA	26	57→67	39→40	47→50	50	270/329/361	90	326	5	10	18%	8%	97	+1.1	260/314/356	96	306	7	9	16%	7%	91	+0.6	264/318/356	92	306	7	7	15%	7%	90	+0.4
✕Mike O'Neill 2014 · AAA	26	63→71	35→30	50	60	294/365/356	62	320	2	13	9%	10%	109	+2.0	259/324/318	59	290	2	9	10%	9%	85	+0.2	257/319/305	48	288	0	5	10%	8%	79	-0.2
✕Cam Maron 2017 · AA	26	52→58	37→40	47→40	51	245/309/319	74	304	5	4	20%	8%	80	-0.1	230/291/323	93	287	8	5	21%	8%	75	-0.5	219/282/303	84	270	8	0	21%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Carlos Asuaje 2018 · MLB	26	53→58	41→45	46→45	50	251/313/354	104	303	7	5	19%	8%	91	+0.6	225/296/330	105	277	8	5	20%	8%	79	-0.2	214/286/306	93	259	6	5	19%	8%	68	-0.5

Noah Mendlinger

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps