Luis Caicuto
C Jersey Shore BlueClaws| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+/A/INTL2 orgs | 345 | .227/.338/.282 | 0 | 4 | 58 | — | .188/.271/.228 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+PHI | 89 | .299/.364/.338 | 0 | 1 | 71 | — | .272/.330/.296 |
| 2026 | 23 | AA/A+PHI | 242 | .249/.366/.406 | 6 | 8 | 79 | — | .221/.298/.363 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBPHI | 1 | .228/.295/.345 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ38% MLB | 25 | MLBPHI | 71 | .230/.298/.351 | 1 | 1 | 82 | 0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ55% MLB | 26 | MLBPHI | 134 | .231/.299/.355 | 3 | 2 | 83 | 0.3 |
Tools · ContractCON 53 / POW 39
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs Red | — | 106 | 91 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 352 | 433 | 451 | 883 | 99 | 403 | 12 | 9 | 392 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL D-backs Black | — | 27 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 346 | 158 | 504 | 53 | 154 | 26 | 22 | 263 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 113 | 97 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 186 | 292 | 186 | 478 | 237 | 19 | 9 | 238 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 143 | 123 | 30 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 244 | 338 | 325 | 663 | 81 | 294 | 15 | 8 | 306 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | INTL | Adelaide Giants | — | 89 | 71 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 254 | 398 | 338 | 736 | 85 | 305 | 15 | 19 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 89 | 77 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 299 | 364 | 338 | 701 | 39 | 377 | 18 | 6 | 319 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 37 | 33 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 333 | 455 | 788 | 182 | 320 | 19 | 8 | 339 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 205 | 164 | 40 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 244 | 372 | 396 | 768 | 152 | 259 | 15 | 16 | 340 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Red | — | 106 | 95 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 295 | 356 | 379 | 735 | 84 | 344 | 18 | 6 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Black | — | 27 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 95 | 269 | 143 | 412 | 48 | 116 | 37 | 15 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 113 | 102 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 157 | 239 | 157 | 396 | 207 | 24 | 5 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 143 | 127 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 213 | 296 | 283 | 579 | 71 | 265 | 21 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 89 | 81 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 272 | 330 | 296 | 626 | 25 | 352 | 24 | 3 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 37 | 34 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 265 | 306 | 441 | 747 | 176 | 303 | 24 | 5 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 205 | 178 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 39 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 213 | 296 | 348 | 645 | 135 | 228 | 19 | 9 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Red | — | 106 | 95 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 295 | 356 | 379 | 735 | 84 | 360 | 18 | 6 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL D-backs Red | — | 106 | 91 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 352 | 433 | 451 | 883 | 99 | 403 | 12 | 9 | 392 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Black | — | 27 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 95 | 269 | 143 | 412 | 48 | 167 | 37 | 15 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK RAW | ACL D-backs Black | — | 27 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 346 | 158 | 504 | 53 | 154 | 26 | 22 | 263 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 345 | 312 | 57 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 77 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 183 | 257 | 221 | 478 | 38 | 241 | 22 | 6 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 345 | 291 | 66 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 39 | 56 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 227 | 338 | 282 | 620 | 55 | 278 | 16 | 11 | 293 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 89 | 81 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 272 | 330 | 296 | 626 | 25 | 367 | 24 | 3 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 89 | 77 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 299 | 364 | 338 | 701 | 39 | 377 | 18 | 6 | 319 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 242 | 212 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 48 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 222 | 298 | 358 | 656 | 137 | 250 | 20 | 9 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 242 | 197 | 49 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 37 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 249 | 366 | 406 | 772 | 157 | 269 | 15 | 14 | 340 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Red | — | 106 | 96 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 292 | 356 | 375 | 731 | 83 | 344 | 18 | 6 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Black | — | 27 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 269 | 136 | 406 | 45 | 116 | 37 | 15 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 345 | 311 | 57 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 77 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 183 | 257 | 222 | 478 | 39 | 239 | 22 | 6 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 89 | 82 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 268 | 330 | 293 | 622 | 24 | 352 | 24 | 3 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 242 | 217 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 48 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 217 | 298 | 350 | 648 | 134 | 239 | 20 | 9 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 345 | 311 | 57 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 77 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 183 | 257 | 222 | 478 | 39 | 239 | 22 | 6 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 89 | 82 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 268 | 330 | 293 | 622 | 24 | 352 | 24 | 3 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 242 | 217 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 48 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 217 | 298 | 350 | 648 | 134 | 239 | 20 | 9 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | PHI | 0% | 292 | 265 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 63 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 227 | 294 | 340 | 635 | 113 | 276 | 22 | 7 | 286 | 80 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | PHI | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 295 | 345 | 640 | 116 | 277 | 0 | 0 | 288 | 80 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | PHI | 38% | 187 | 169 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 40 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 229 | 297 | 347 | 643 | 118 | 277 | 21 | 7 | 290 | 82 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | PHI | 55% | 242 | 219 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 52 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 230 | 298 | 350 | 648 | 120 | 278 | 21 | 7 | 291 | 83 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | PHI | 61% | 272 | 246 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 59 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 229 | 298 | 350 | 648 | 121 | 278 | 22 | 8 | 292 | 83 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | PHI | 65% | 290 | 263 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 64 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 228 | 297 | 348 | 645 | 120 | 278 | 22 | 8 | 291 | 83 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | PHI | 64% | 291 | 264 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 65 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 295 | 345 | 641 | 118 | 277 | 22 | 8 | 289 | 81 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB MLE | PHI | 64% | 291 | 264 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 66 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 224 | 292 | 337 | 629 | 113 | 275 | 23 | 8 | 284 | 78 | -8 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB MLE | PHI | 64% | 263 | 238 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 60 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 220 | 287 | 327 | 614 | 108 | 272 | 23 | 8 | 278 | 74 | -8 | -0 | -3 | +5 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | PHI | 38% | 71 | 65 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 230 | 298 | 351 | 649 | 121 | 277 | 21 | 7 | 292 | 82 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | PHI | 55% | 134 | 121 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 231 | 299 | 355 | 654 | 124 | 278 | 22 | 7 | 294 | 83 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | PHI | 61% | 167 | 150 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 36 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 299 | 355 | 654 | 124 | 278 | 22 | 8 | 294 | 83 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | PHI | 65% | 187 | 169 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 41 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 230 | 298 | 353 | 652 | 124 | 278 | 22 | 7 | 293 | 83 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | PHI | 64% | 187 | 169 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 228 | 297 | 350 | 647 | 122 | 277 | 22 | 7 | 291 | 81 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB CTX | PHI | 64% | 187 | 169 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 42 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 225 | 293 | 342 | 635 | 117 | 275 | 22 | 7 | 286 | 78 | -5 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB CTX | PHI | 64% | 169 | 152 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 39 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 221 | 288 | 332 | 619 | 111 | 272 | 23 | 8 | 280 | 74 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +4 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1102 | 995 | 229 | 45 | 5 | 23 | 83 | 244 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 230 | 298 | 355 | 653 | 125 | 281 | 22 | 8 | 290 | 75 | -25 | +0 | -4 | +20 | +24 | 1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 587 | 136 | 27 | 3 | 14 | 49 | 144 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 232 | 300 | 359 | 660 | 128 | 282 | 22 | 8 | 290 | 75 | -15 | +0 | -3 | +12 | +14 | 0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2788 | 2514 | 564 | 110 | 9 | 46 | 203 | 612 | 43 | 39 | 14 | 224 | 293 | 330 | 624 | 106 | 277 | 22 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -46 | +2 | -7 | +35 | +43 | 2.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 132 | 26 | 2 | 11 | 47 | 143 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 225 | 294 | 333 | 627 | 108 | 278 | 22 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -15 | +1 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 205 PAwOBA .342 → .283 (−59)K% 14.6% → 19.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.63% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 19.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 9.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×1.043 | ×0.998 | 16.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.043 | ×0.998 | 6.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.043 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.28% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .342 → .283; ISO .152 → .140; BABIP .259 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAReading Fightin Phils · 37 PAwOBA .330 → .294 (−36)K% 18.9% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.92% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 5.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.027 | 19.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 10.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 3.08% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .330 → .294; ISO .182 → .155; BABIP .320 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 89 PAwOBA .311 → .273 (−38)K% 18.0% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.98% | ÷1.002 | ×1.310 | — | — | 23.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.62% | ÷1.093 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 3.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.49% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 3.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.79% | ÷0.966 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 31.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.92% | ÷1.073 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 3.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.045 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 93, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 100, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .311 → .273; ISO .039 → .031; BABIP .377 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AClearwater Threshers · 143 PAwOBA .300 → .253 (−47)K% 15.4% → 21.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.38% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.39% | ÷0.973 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.20% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 3.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.80% | ÷1.042 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×1.015 | 17.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.90% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×1.015 | 8.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.132 | ×0.910 | ×1.005 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.115 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 126, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .300 → .253; ISO .081 → .072; BABIP .294 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 113 PAwOBA .233 → .186 (−47)K% 18.6% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.58% | ÷1.023 | ×1.310 | — | — | 23.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.85% | ÷0.972 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 5.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.42% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 3.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.68% | ÷1.035 | ×0.870 | ×1.014 | ×1.027 | 20.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.014 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.946 | ×0.850 | ×1.014 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 107, 2B 100, 3B 89, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .233 → .186; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .237 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL D-backs Black · 27 PAwOBA .269 → .183 (−85)K% 25.9% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.93% | ÷1.030 | ×1.440 | — | — | 36.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.22% | ÷1.001 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 13.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.70% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.073 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 6.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.966 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 6.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.950 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.038 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 115, 2B 93, 3B 90, K 106, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .269 → .183; ISO .053 → .042; BABIP .154 → .116. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL D-backs Red · 106 PAwOBA .382 → .308 (−74)K% 12.3% → 17.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.26% | ÷0.996 | ×1.440 | — | — | 17.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.43% | ÷0.969 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 6.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.83% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷0.996 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 29.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷0.974 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 4.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.28% | ÷0.964 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 1.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.28% | ÷1.119 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.90% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 93, K 99, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .382 → .308; ISO .099 → .075; BABIP .403 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .