Francisco Urbaez
2B Louisville Bats| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 443 | .268/.362/.401 | 9 | 8 | 80 | — | .237/.303/.337 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 456 | .312/.384/.448 | 4 | 6 | 99 | — | .267/.321/.389 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAACIN | 473 | .255/.333/.372 | 7 | 3 | 61 | — | .219/.277/.306 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBCIN | 16 | .256/.313/.367 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ33% MLB | 30 | MLBCIN | 69 | .253/.309/.362 | 1 | 0 | 89 | 0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 55 | 52 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 273 | 308 | 580 | 77 | 273 | 15 | 5 | 263 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 48 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 333 | 300 | 633 | 100 | 229 | 10 | 12 | 299 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 285 | 246 | 82 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 44 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 333 | 423 | 455 | 878 | 122 | 394 | 15 | 11 | 394 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 138 | 114 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 272 | 385 | 281 | 666 | 9 | 323 | 13 | 12 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 187 | 164 | 46 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 31 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 280 | 366 | 415 | 780 | 134 | 328 | 17 | 11 | 350 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 38 | 34 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 265 | 342 | 353 | 695 | 88 | 333 | 18 | 11 | 316 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 293 | 250 | 66 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 55 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 264 | 363 | 380 | 743 | 116 | 311 | 19 | 12 | 336 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 16 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 133 | 133 | 38 | 12 | 87 | -55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 100 | 85 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 306 | 392 | 459 | 851 | 153 | 369 | 19 | 12 | 369 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 315 | 270 | 71 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 42 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 263 | 353 | 400 | 753 | 137 | 282 | 13 | 10 | 334 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 28 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 357 | 182 | 539 | 250 | 21 | 18 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 411 | 360 | 113 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 38 | 40 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 314 | 385 | 464 | 849 | 150 | 339 | 10 | 9 | 372 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | INTL | Toros del Este | — | 45 | 40 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 300 | 378 | 300 | 678 | 316 | 4 | 9 | 320 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 473 | 419 | 107 | 26 | 1 | 7 | 43 | 67 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 255 | 333 | 372 | 705 | 117 | 287 | 14 | 9 | 317 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 55 | 53 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 255 | 302 | 556 | 75 | 269 | 18 | 4 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 48 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 292 | 286 | 577 | 95 | 206 | 12 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 285 | 256 | 68 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 60 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 266 | 338 | 359 | 697 | 94 | 333 | 21 | 8 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 187 | 171 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 234 | 296 | 333 | 629 | 99 | 288 | 20 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 38 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 316 | 343 | 659 | 86 | 314 | 21 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 293 | 263 | 61 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 70 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 232 | 301 | 327 | 628 | 95 | 283 | 24 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 100 | 89 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 270 | 330 | 371 | 701 | 101 | 343 | 23 | 8 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 315 | 282 | 64 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 51 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 227 | 294 | 326 | 621 | 99 | 247 | 16 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 411 | 375 | 100 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 25 | 49 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 267 | 321 | 389 | 710 | 123 | 293 | 12 | 6 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 473 | 434 | 95 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 80 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 219 | 277 | 306 | 584 | 88 | 252 | 17 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 526 | 471 | 118 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 39 | 103 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 251 | 324 | 346 | 670 | 96 | 311 | 20 | 7 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 526 | 452 | 133 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 58 | 75 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 294 | 389 | 381 | 769 | 86 | 346 | 14 | 11 | 351 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 187 | 171 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 234 | 296 | 333 | 629 | 99 | 286 | 20 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 187 | 164 | 46 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 31 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 280 | 366 | 415 | 780 | 134 | 328 | 17 | 11 | 350 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 347 | 312 | 72 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 82 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 231 | 298 | 321 | 619 | 90 | 291 | 24 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 347 | 297 | 75 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 41 | 68 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 253 | 351 | 360 | 711 | 108 | 303 | 20 | 12 | 322 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 443 | 396 | 95 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 79 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 240 | 306 | 343 | 650 | 104 | 278 | 18 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 443 | 377 | 101 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 48 | 67 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 268 | 362 | 401 | 762 | 133 | 299 | 15 | 11 | 339 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 456 | 416 | 112 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 55 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 269 | 324 | 399 | 723 | 130 | 298 | 12 | 6 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 456 | 400 | 125 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 42 | 42 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 312 | 384 | 448 | 832 | 135 | 336 | 9 | 9 | 367 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 473 | 434 | 95 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 80 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 219 | 277 | 306 | 584 | 88 | 255 | 17 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | Louisville Bats | — | 473 | 419 | 107 | 26 | 1 | 7 | 43 | 67 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 255 | 333 | 372 | 705 | 117 | 287 | 14 | 9 | 317 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 526 | 470 | 118 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 39 | 103 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 251 | 324 | 347 | 671 | 96 | 308 | 20 | 7 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 187 | 170 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 235 | 296 | 335 | 631 | 100 | 288 | 20 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 347 | 314 | 72 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 82 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 229 | 298 | 318 | 617 | 89 | 287 | 24 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 443 | 402 | 95 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 79 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 236 | 306 | 338 | 645 | 102 | 270 | 18 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 456 | 419 | 112 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 55 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 267 | 324 | 396 | 721 | 129 | 293 | 12 | 6 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 473 | 435 | 95 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 80 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 277 | 306 | 583 | 87 | 252 | 17 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 443 | 402 | 95 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 79 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 236 | 306 | 338 | 645 | 102 | 270 | 18 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 456 | 419 | 112 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 55 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 267 | 324 | 396 | 721 | 129 | 293 | 12 | 6 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 473 | 435 | 95 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 80 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 277 | 306 | 583 | 87 | 252 | 17 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | CIN | 10% | 380 | 348 | 88 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 63 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 255 | 312 | 364 | 676 | 109 | 297 | 17 | 6 | 303 | 91 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +8 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | CIN | 10% | 16 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 256 | 313 | 367 | 680 | 111 | 298 | 19 | 6 | 304 | 91 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | CIN | 33% | 212 | 194 | 48 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 252 | 309 | 359 | 667 | 107 | 296 | 17 | 7 | 299 | 89 | -3 | -0 | -2 | +1 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | CIN | 33% | 69 | 64 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 253 | 309 | 362 | 671 | 109 | 296 | 17 | 6 | 301 | 89 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 69 | 64 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 304 | 359 | 664 | 109 | 294 | 17 | 6 | 301 | 81 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 603 | 151 | 38 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 113 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 305 | 358 | 663 | 108 | 295 | 17 | 6 | 301 | 81 | -9 | +0 | -6 | +2 | +14 | 0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2799 | 2536 | 616 | 130 | 16 | 32 | 190 | 498 | 41 | 32 | 20 | 243 | 306 | 345 | 651 | 102 | 288 | 18 | 7 | 288 | 81 | -5 | -0 | -2 | +1 | +8 | 0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 143 | 30 | 4 | 7 | 44 | 116 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 243 | 307 | 343 | 650 | 100 | 288 | 18 | 7 | 288 | 81 | -8 | -0 | -4 | +2 | +14 | 0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAALouisville Bats · 473 PAwOBA .312 → .259 (−52)K% 14.2% → 17.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.16% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 6.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.996 | ×0.982 | 18.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×0.982 | 6.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.996 | ×0.982 | 0.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 1.37% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .312 → .259; ISO .117 → .091; BABIP .287 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALouisville Bats · 411 PAwOBA .367 → .315 (−52)K% 9.7% → 12.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.73% | ÷0.975 | ×1.200 | — | — | 11.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.00% | ÷1.002 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.22% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.50% | ÷1.049 | ×0.930 | ×0.992 | ×0.992 | 19.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×0.992 | ×0.992 | 8.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.56% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.992 | ×0.992 | 1.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.25% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.96% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .367 → .315; ISO .150 → .133; BABIP .339 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 315 PAwOBA .331 → .276 (−54)K% 13.3% → 16.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.33% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷0.970 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 6.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 1.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.93% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | ×0.990 | ×0.978 | 20.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.236 | ×0.910 | ×0.990 | ×0.978 | 3.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.001 | ×0.880 | ×0.990 | ×0.978 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.07% | ÷1.089 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.21% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 93, 2B 147, 3B 100, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .331 → .276; ISO .137 → .104; BABIP .282 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAALouisville Bats · 100 PAwOBA .363 → .317 (−47)K% 19.0% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.00% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.00% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.76% | ÷0.995 | ×0.930 | ×1.025 | ×1.003 | 24.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.61% | ÷0.964 | ×0.830 | ×1.025 | ×1.003 | 9.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.025 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.111 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.92% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .363 → .317; ISO .153 → .123; BABIP .369 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 293 PAwOBA .332 → .276 (−55)K% 18.8% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.77% | ÷0.961 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.95% | ÷1.069 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 7.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.37% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 1.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.13% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×1.000 | ×0.988 | 23.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.64% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | ×1.000 | ×0.988 | 5.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.000 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.08% | ÷1.017 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.39% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 92, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .332 → .276; ISO .116 → .097; BABIP .311 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAALouisville Bats · 38 PAwOBA .309 → .272 (−37)K% 18.4% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.42% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.93% | ÷0.998 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 24.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 3.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 3.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.054 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 108, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .309 → .272; ISO .088 → .082; BABIP .333 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 187 PAwOBA .343 → .285 (−58)K% 16.6% → 20.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.58% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.23% | ÷1.019 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 7.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.31% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×0.998 | 20.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.27% | ÷1.084 | ×0.910 | ×0.982 | ×0.998 | 6.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | ×0.982 | ×0.998 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.26% | ÷0.990 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.82% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 100, 2B 117, 3B 82, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .343 → .285; ISO .134 → .112; BABIP .328 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Dayton Dragons · 285 PAwOBA .385 → .308 (−77)K% 15.4% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.44% | ÷0.986 | ×1.350 | — | — | 21.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.23% | ÷1.008 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 7.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.11% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 1.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.20% | ÷1.061 | ×0.910 | ×1.008 | ×0.988 | 25.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.92% | ÷1.011 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×0.988 | 6.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.50% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×1.008 | ×0.988 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.98% | ÷0.960 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 1.69% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 112, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 97, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .385 → .308; ISO .122 → .100; BABIP .394 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .