Francisco Urbaez

Francisco Urbaez2B Louisville Bats

Age 28 R/R 5'9" / 195 lbs AAA HR +9%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2027

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.252 / .312 / .372

PA250

HR4

K%17

BB%7

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

60→60

PWR

45→45

SPD

45→45

EYE

45→45

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.9M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-3	$0.2M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$0.8M	-$2M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A+	4 teams	526	471	120	25	3	5	39	104	12	5	3	.255	.328	.352	.680	.098	.318	20	7	.293	82	-11	-0	+0	+2	+15	0.6
2022	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	187	171	41	9	1	3	14	40	1	2	1	.240	.301	.357	.658	.117	.295	21	7	.286	77	-5	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.1
2023	25	AA	3 teams	347	312	72	11	1	6	26	87	4	5	3	.231	.298	.330	.628	.099	.295	25	7	.279	71	-11	-0	+0	+1	+10	-0.0
2024	26	AA	3 teams	443	395	96	16	2	8	31	82	8	8	6	.243	.311	.354	.665	.111	.282	19	7	.294	83	-9	-1	+0	+2	+13	0.5
2025	27	AAA	2 teams	456	416	114	31	6	4	28	55	6	6	4	.274	.329	.406	.735	.132	.303	12	6	.320	103	+2	-0	+0	+2	+13	1.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	28	AAA	Louisville Bats	50	46	11	3	1	0	3	5	1	0	1	.239	.300	.348	.648	.109	.268	10	6	.276	69	-2	-0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
ROS	28	MLB	CIN	200	181	46	10	2	3	14	33	3	2	2	.254	.318	.381	.699	.127	.291	16	7	.307	93	-2	-0	+0	+1	+6	0.4
TOT	28	MLB	CIN	250	227	57	13	3	3	17	38	4	2	3	.251	.315	.374	.689	.123	.289	15	7	.301	88	-3	-1	+0	+1	+7	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	29	MLB 20%	CIN	323	292	74	16	3	5	24	53	4	3	3	.253	.319	.380	.699	.127	.289	16	7	.309	95	-2	-1	-1	+1	+9	0.7
2028	30	MLB 33%	CIN	343	310	76	16	3	5	26	59	4	3	3	.245	.312	.365	.676	.119	.288	17	8	.308	94	-2	-1	-2	+1	+10	0.6
2029	31	MLB 43%	CIN	342	309	76	16	3	5	26	61	4	2	3	.246	.313	.366	.678	.120	.288	18	8	.305	92	-3	-1	-3	+1	+10	0.4
2030	32	MLB 52%	CIN	332	300	72	15	2	5	25	61	4	0	2	.240	.307	.353	.660	.113	.287	18	8	.301	89	-4	-1	-4	+1	+9	0.2
2031	33	MLB 64%	CIN	308	278	66	14	2	4	23	59	4	0	2	.237	.305	.345	.650	.108	.286	19	7	.296	85	-5	-1	-4	+1	+9	-0.1
2032	34	MLB 73%	CIN	268	243	57	12	2	3	20	54	3	0	1	.235	.301	.337	.638	.103	.285	20	7	.290	80	-6	-0	-5	+1	+8	-0.3
2033	35	MLB 81%	CIN	218	198	46	9	2	3	16	46	2	0	1	.232	.296	.343	.640	.111	.284	21	7	.283	75	-6	-0	-6	+1	+6	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4293	3876	956	200	32	59	312	794	59	36	34	.247	.312	.360	.673	.114	.294	18	7	.299	87	-65	-6	-24	+15	+122	4.2
/ 162G	—			650	587	145	30	5	9	47	120	9	5	5	.247	.313	.361	.674	.114	.294	18	7	.299	87	-10	-1	-4	+2	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	AAA	Louisville Bats	55	52	12	4	0	0	3	8	0	0	0	.231	.273	.308	.580	.077	.273	15	5	.263	60	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2021	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	48	40	8	2	1	0	6	5	2	0	0	.200	.333	.300	.633	.100	.229	10	12	.299	87	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2021	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	285	246	82	16	1	4	32	44	6	3	1	.333	.423	.455	.878	.122	.394	15	11	.394	160	+19	+0	—	—	+8	2.8
2021	23	INTL	Leones del Escogido	138	114	31	1	0	0	17	18	4	2	2	.272	.385	.281	.666	.009	.323	13	12	.313	98	-0	-0	—	—	+4	0.3
2022	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	187	164	46	11	1	3	21	31	1	2	1	.280	.366	.415	.780	.134	.328	17	11	.350	126	+5	+0	—	—	+5	1.1
2023	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	38	34	9	1	1	0	4	7	0	0	0	.265	.342	.353	.695	.088	.333	18	11	.316	100	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	25	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	293	250	66	11	0	6	35	55	4	4	3	.264	.363	.380	.743	.116	.311	19	12	.336	115	+5	-0	—	—	+8	1.3
2023	25	INTL	Leones del Escogido	16	13	0	0	0	0	2	6	0	1	0	.000	.133	.000	.133	.000	.000	38	12	.087	-75	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.3
2024	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	100	85	26	7	0	2	12	19	0	4	0	.306	.392	.459	.851	.153	.369	19	12	.369	141	+5	+1	—	—	+3	0.8
2024	26	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	315	270	71	12	2	7	31	42	7	4	6	.263	.353	.400	.753	.137	.282	13	10	.334	114	+5	-2	—	—	+9	1.2
2024	26	INTL	Leones del Escogido	28	22	4	0	0	0	5	6	1	0	0	.182	.357	.182	.539	.000	.250	21	18	.280	73	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2025	27	AAA	Louisville Bats	411	360	113	32	5	4	38	40	5	5	4	.314	.385	.464	.849	.150	.339	10	9	.372	143	+20	-1	—	—	+12	3.2
2025	27	INTL	Toros del Este	45	40	12	0	0	0	4	2	1	1	0	.300	.378	.300	.678	.000	.316	4	9	.320	103	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Francisco Urbaez (OGILVIE)	28	60	45	45	45	.252/.312/.372	.121	.295	4	3	17%	7%	94	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Elias Díaz 2020 · MLB	29	52→58	42→50	45	48	.254/.302/.357	.104	.293	10	3	17%	6%	85	+0.7	.239/.297/.374	.135	.272	15	3	18%	7%	88	+0.9	.235/.291/.378	.144	.273	17	0	20%	7%	85	+0.5
✕Chris Nelson 2013 · MLB	27	52→58	46→50	46→50	43	.257/.301/.389	.133	.310	13	7	22%	6%	93	+1.3	.241/.289/.355	.114	.306	11	6	24%	6%	79	+0.3	.226/.276/.324	.098	.285	9	5	23%	6%	63	-0.5
✕Eric Campbell 2015 · MLB	28	55→57	43→45	49→50	52	.265/.340/.384	.119	.326	10	11	21%	9%	108	+2.3	.247/.333/.361	.114	.305	10	13	21%	10%	100	+1.7	.246/.341/.353	.107	.303	9	12	20%	10%	99	+1.1
✕Johnny Giavotella 2014 · MLB	27	54→59	41→45	48→50	48	.257/.307/.361	.104	.296	8	10	16%	6%	88	+0.9	.252/.299/.357	.105	.281	8	11	13%	6%	83	+0.6	.262/.307/.368	.106	.290	7	5	12%	6%	88	+0.6
✕John Hester 2012 · MLB	28	48	45→55	43→50	43	.234/.286/.359	.125	.303	12	8	26%	6%	79	+0.3	.205/.263/.320	.115	.288	12	5	32%	7%	59	-1.1	.188/.247/.298	.110	.271	12	4	34%	7%	46	-0.9
✕Josh Rutledge 2016 · MLB	27	50→59	42→50	47→50	42	.240/.294/.348	.108	.308	9	8	24%	6%	79	+0.3	.220/.277/.312	.092	.311	7	8	29%	6%	63	-0.8	.193/.269/.246	.053	.279	3	4	29%	8%	42	-0.6
✕Jason Donald 2013 · MLB	28	51→55	42→45	50	44	.244/.305/.353	.108	.314	8	14	24%	6%	85	+0.7	.216/.263/.316	.100	.303	8	9	30%	5%	58	-1.2	.193/.231/.278	.084	.285	5	6	33%	4%	31	-1.3
✕Grant Green 2016 · MLB	28	53→57	42→45	42→45	40	.257/.291/.373	.116	.324	8	5	23%	4%	84	+0.6	.245/.276/.343	.098	.312	7	5	23%	4%	69	-0.4	.245/.276/.327	.082	.313	6	2	23%	4%	62	-0.5
✕Yuniesky Betancourt 2010 · MLB	28	55→60	42→50	43→50	46	.262/.289/.378	.116	.273	9	5	8%	4%	84	+0.6	.248/.277/.377	.129	.260	13	4	11%	4%	80	+0.4	.243/.271/.378	.134	.253	15	3	11%	3%	75	-0.0
✕Luis Martinez 2013 · MLB	28	52→57	38→40	48→40	47	.243/.303/.331	.087	.313	5	5	23%	7%	79	+0.3	.223/.278/.313	.090	.289	5	4	23%	6%	64	-0.8	.208/.265/.281	.073	.270	3	1	23%	6%	47	-0.9
✕Alberto Carreon 2016 · AAA	28	49→57	43→45	46→50	42	.238/.293/.350	.112	.292	10	8	22%	5%	80	+0.4	.241/.285/.336	.095	.297	7	10	20%	5%	72	-0.2	.248/.294/.327	.079	.302	5	9	19%	4%	71	-0.2
●Jose Iglesias 2018 · MLB	28	55→62	40→45	44→50	48	.260/.303/.358	.098	.284	7	10	12%	5%	85	+0.7	.272/.310/.394	.122	.298	10	11	12%	4%	98	+1.6	.290/.324/.417	.127	.322	12	6	14%	4%	106	+1.4
✕Humberto Castro 2019 · AAA	28	52	40	46→45	46	.248/.306/.337	.089	.281	7	9	15%	5%	82	+0.5	.234/.286/.309	.075	.270	5	9	15%	4%	66	-0.6	.236/.286/.278	.043	.274	0	5	13%	3%	55	-0.7
✕Christian Colonel 2010 · AAA	28	50→55	44→50	42→45	46	.248/.292/.369	.121	.285	12	6	18%	6%	84	+0.6	.224/.287/.317	.093	.283	8	6	22%	7%	69	-0.4	.217/.290/.292	.076	.280	5	2	23%	9%	60	-0.4
✕Phil Gosselin 2017 · MLB	28	57→63	41→45	49→45	44	.274/.316/.382	.108	.328	8	9	19%	5%	97	+1.5	.226/.274/.320	.094	.286	7	6	22%	6%	63	-0.8	.256/.319/.377	.121	.319	11	4	22%	8%	95	+0.7
✕Rob Johnson 2010 · MLB	28	48→52	41→45	41→50	47	.233/.286/.338	.104	.277	8	7	19%	6%	73	-0.1	.214/.284/.322	.108	.268	9	6	22%	8%	69	-0.4	.196/.269/.293	.097	.245	8	5	22%	8%	50	-0.7
✕Kevan Smith 2016 · AAA	28	50→54	44→50	44→40	44	.243/.298/.359	.116	.297	11	3	22%	6%	85	+0.7	.244/.291/.358	.114	.289	11	3	19%	5%	81	+0.4	.270/.319/.376	.106	.308	10	2	15%	5%	96	+0.7
✕Issmael Salas 2010 · AAA	28	54→51	42→50	46→50	48	.260/.305/.365	.105	.280	10	10	12%	5%	89	+0.9	.255/.304/.378	.123	.289	12	10	16%	6%	92	+1.2	.254/.304/.394	.141	.288	15	8	17%	6%	92	+0.7
✕Jordy Mercer 2014 · MLB	27	51→58	47→50	43→45	45	.251/.302/.392	.142	.291	14	8	19%	6%	95	+1.4	.252/.305/.376	.124	.291	12	5	17%	7%	92	+1.2	.250/.320/.384	.135	.284	13	1	16%	8%	88	+0.8
●Harold Ramírez 2023 · MLB	28	58→64	44→50	40→50	44	.281/.325/.402	.121	.322	11	6	16%	5%	106	+2.2	.279/.321/.393	.114	.334	11	9	19%	5%	102	+1.9	.279/.318/.380	.101	.340	10	9	20%	4%	95	+0.9

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)