Tyson Hardin — OGILVIE

Tyson Hardin P Nashville Sounds

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.7 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION120 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10697vR 89

ERA3.81

FIP3.81

K%19.5%

BB%5.1%

K-BB%14.4%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$44M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL—55

CMD4550

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$9M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$9M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$9M	+$8M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+1.3	$7M	+$4M
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$7M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$39M	+$30M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	2	1	4	17	2	2	0	50%	1.8	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	0.0%	4.91	3.60	—
2024	22	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	2	1	4	17	2	2	0	50%	1.8	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	0.0%	4.91	3.60	—
2024	22	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	2	1	4	17	2	2	0	50%	1.8	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	0.0%	4.91	3.65	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	96	388	96	17	3	100%	4.6	19.4%	4.9%	14.5%	0.8%	2.72	2.52	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	96	388	96	17	3	100%	4.6	19.4%	4.9%	14.5%	0.8%	2.72	2.52	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	96	388	96	17	3	100%	4.6	24.7%	4.4%	20.4%	0.8%	2.72	2.04	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	26	25	120	516	139	37	11	96%	4.6	22.2%	6.9%	15.3%	2.4%	5.34	3.43	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	26	25	120	516	139	37	11	96%	4.6	22.2%	6.9%	15.3%	2.4%	5.34	3.43	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	MIL	7	7	29	140	43	12	4	100%	4.2	30.7%	8.6%	22.1%	2.9%	7.67	3.16	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	MIL	19	18	90	376	96	25	7	95%	4.8	25.5%	6.6%	18.9%	1.9%	4.58	2.81	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	MIL	1	1	8	32	6	2	1	100%	7.6	19.5%	5.1%	14.4%	2.4%	3.81	3.81	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	127	548	145	39	12	—	—	26.5%	7.0%	19.5%	2.1%	5.25	3.45	+2.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	137	577	118	30	14	100%	5.9	20.4%	5.2%	15.2%	2.5%	3.81	3.78	+1.8
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	149	628	131	34	16	100%	5.9	20.8%	5.4%	15.4%	2.5%	3.80	3.78	+2.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	150	635	132	35	16	100%	6.0	20.8%	5.6%	15.3%	2.6%	3.84	3.84	+1.9
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	150	635	132	37	17	100%	6.0	20.7%	5.8%	15.0%	2.7%	3.90	3.94	+1.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	144	607	124	36	17	100%	6.0	20.5%	6.0%	14.5%	2.8%	4.00	4.07	+1.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	135	570	115	36	17	100%	5.9	20.2%	6.3%	13.9%	3.0%	4.15	4.25	+1.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	126	532	105	35	17	100%	6.0	19.8%	6.6%	13.1%	3.3%	4.33	4.45	+0.7
2034	32	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	117	492	95	35	17	100%	6.1	19.3%	7.0%	12.3%	3.5%	4.54	4.67	+0.3
2035	33	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	107	452	85	34	17	100%	5.9	18.8%	7.5%	11.3%	3.8%	4.77	4.92	-0.0
2036	34	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	97	411	75	33	17	100%	6.1	18.2%	8.0%	10.3%	4.1%	5.03	5.20	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	66	279	57	15	7	100%	6.0	20.4%	5.2%	15.2%	2.6%	3.88	3.85	+0.9
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	103	435	90	23	11	100%	6.1	20.8%	5.4%	15.4%	2.6%	3.87	3.85	+1.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	119	502	105	28	14	100%	6.0	20.8%	5.6%	15.3%	2.7%	3.91	3.91	+1.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	128	540	112	31	15	100%	6.1	20.7%	5.8%	15.0%	2.8%	3.97	4.01	+1.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	127	536	110	32	16	100%	6.0	20.5%	6.0%	14.5%	3.0%	4.08	4.15	+1.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	122	515	104	32	16	100%	6.1	20.2%	6.3%	13.9%	3.2%	4.23	4.33	+0.9
2033	31	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	116	490	97	33	17	100%	6.1	19.8%	6.6%	13.1%	3.4%	4.42	4.54	+0.6
2034	32	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	108	456	88	32	17	100%	6.0	19.3%	7.0%	12.3%	3.7%	4.64	4.77	+0.3
2035	33	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	100	422	79	32	17	100%	5.9	18.8%	7.5%	11.3%	4.0%	4.87	5.02	-0.0
2036	34	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	87	367	67	29	16	100%	6.2	18.2%	8.0%	10.3%	4.3%	5.14	5.31	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		180	180	1077	4546	910	287	146	100%	6.0	20.0%	6.3%	13.7%	3.2%	4.28	3.98	+11.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	169	53	27	100%	6.0	20.0%	6.3%	13.7%	3.2%	4.28	3.98	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		49	47	219	921	192	57	16	96%	4.5	20.8%	6.2%	14.7%	1.7%	4.19	3.05	+10.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	43	200	840	175	52	14	96%	4.5	20.8%	6.2%	14.7%	1.7%	4.19	3.05	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyson Hardin (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.81	19.5%	5.1%	2.4%	—	3.80	20.7%	15.3%	436	-0.01	—	—	—
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	88
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	17.6%	5.5%	2.5%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.12	3.18	237	85
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	84
Gabe Mosser R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.57	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.82	3.75	651	83
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	82
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	82
Jack Cushing R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.66	18.1%	11.3%	332	+0.97	3.69	523	82
Nick Fraze R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	24	SP	3.86	17.3%	3.5%	3.2%	.261	5.14	16.9%	6.5%	157	+1.28	3.86	278	82
Joe Wieland R 2015 · 3.38 FIP	25	SP	3.38	16.6%	5.4%	1.8%	.352	4.27	18.6%	11.3%	124	+0.89	3.38	270	81
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.28	19.1%	10.1%	247	+0.40	3.88	490	81
Tyler Stuart R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.87	20.3%	11.8%	142	+0.32	3.53	252	80
Alex Faedo R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP	3.73	22.9%	5.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	18.0%	7.8%	54	+0.79	3.66	456	80
Blake Adams R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	22	SP	3.40	18.6%	7.3%	1.7%	.333	4.00	17.0%	10.5%	306	+0.60	3.36	389	80
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.90	14.7%	5.0%	124	+0.79	3.11	206	80
Cedric De Grandpre R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.17	22.9%	8.9%	177	+0.79	3.38	264	80
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	79
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	79
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	79
Luc Rennie R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	18.7%	5.5%	2.2%	.352	5.56	14.5%	5.7%	209	+2.11	3.45	265	79
Alex FaGalde R 2018 · 3.82 FIP	24	SP	3.82	19.1%	6.7%	2.7%	.266	5.04	16.1%	6.4%	162	+1.22	3.82	279	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.0	127	20.0%	6.1%	1.15	4.14
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14