Tyson Hardin
P
Nashville Sounds
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION81 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 89
ERA3.84
FIP3.84
K%19.5%
BB%5.5%
K-BB%14.0%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 146 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 1.8 | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 3.60 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 1.8 | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 3.65 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 96 | 388 | 96 | 17 | 3 | 100% | 4.6 | 19.4% | 4.9% | 14.5% | 0.7% | 2.72 | 2.47 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 96 | 388 | 96 | 17 | 3 | 100% | 4.6 | 24.7% | 4.4% | 20.4% | 0.8% | 2.72 | 2.04 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 17 | 17 | 81 | 348 | 96 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 15.1% | 2.3% | 5.09 | 3.45 | +1.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 53 | 15 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.5% | 5.5% | 14.0% | 2.4% | 3.84 | 3.84 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIL | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 5.5% | 14.0% | 2.3% | 3.81 | 3.81 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 146 | 622 | 149 | 42 | 14 | — | — | 24.0% | 6.8% | 17.3% | 2.2% | 4.54 | 3.63 | +3.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 6 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 19.5% | 5.5% | 14.0% | 2.3% | 3.81 | 3.43 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 59 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.5% | 5.7% | 14.8% | 2.4% | 3.84 | 3.81 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 60 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.0% | 6.0% | 15.0% | 2.5% | 3.85 | 3.83 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 60 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.1% | 6.2% | 14.9% | 2.6% | 3.88 | 3.89 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 58 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.0% | 6.4% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 3.98 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 29 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.5% | 5.7% | 14.8% | 2.4% | 3.81 | 3.78 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 42 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.0% | 6.0% | 15.0% | 2.4% | 3.82 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 47 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 6.2% | 14.9% | 2.5% | 3.85 | 3.86 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 49 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.0% | 6.4% | 14.6% | 2.6% | 3.92 | 3.95 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 33 | 33 | 195 | 822 | 172 | 50 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 6.1% | 14.8% | 2.5% | 3.86 | 3.48 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 177 | 51 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 6.1% | 14.8% | 2.5% | 3.86 | 3.48 | +4.5 | ||
| Career | — | 40 | 39 | 181 | 753 | 159 | 50 | 11 | 98% | 4.5 | 21.1% | 6.7% | 14.4% | 1.4% | 3.83 | 2.95 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 43 | 200 | 832 | 175 | 55 | 12 | 98% | 4.5 | 21.1% | 6.7% | 14.4% | 1.4% | 3.83 | 2.95 | +5.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyson Hardin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.84 | 19.5% | 5.5% | 2.4% | — | 3.84 | 20.8% | 14.9% | 203 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.69 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .336 | 6.45 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.76 | 3.69 | 124 | 85 |
| Jacob Kisting R 2025 · 2.74 FIP | 23 | SP | 2.74 | 21.9% | 5.9% | 1.4% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 144 | 83 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 83 |
| Luc Rennie R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.48 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 2.3% | .352 | 5.49 | 14.5% | 5.7% | 209 | +2.01 | 3.48 | 265 | 82 |
| Nick Fraze R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 17.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | .261 | 5.18 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 157 | +1.37 | 3.81 | 278 | 82 |
| Mason Erla R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.95 | 14.9% | 6.0% | 2.5% | .309 | 4.99 | 14.9% | 4.6% | 124 | +1.04 | 3.12 | 206 | 82 |
| Mitchell Kilkenny R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.46 | 17.6% | 5.5% | 2.1% | .290 | 5.81 | 13.4% | 5.1% | 124 | +2.35 | 3.18 | 237 | 81 |
| Garrett McMillan R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.54 | 18.9% | 4.3% | 2.7% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 118 | 80 |
| Gabe Mosser R 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.79 | 17.7% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .346 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 6.9% | 104 | +0.84 | 3.79 | 606 | 80 |
| Connor Noland R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.78 | 14.8% | 5.7% | 2.2% | .290 | 4.26 | 16.6% | 8.0% | 315 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 423 | 80 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.67 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.85 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 332 | +1.18 | 3.67 | 523 | 79 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 79 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 79 |
| Ryan Watson R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.26 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | .342 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 5.4% | 98 | +1.59 | 4.26 | 165 | 79 |
| Joe Wieland R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.56 | 16.6% | 5.4% | 2.2% | .352 | 4.50 | 18.6% | 11.3% | 124 | +0.94 | 3.56 | 270 | 78 |
| Javi Rivera R 2026 · 2.72 FIP | 24 | SP | 2.72 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 0.7% | .293 | 7.44 | 14.0% | -0.5% | 42 | +4.72 | 2.72 | 229 | 78 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.39 | 14.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | .330 | 2.97 | 25.6% | 18.2% | 216 | -0.42 | 2.53 | 507 | 78 |
| Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.84 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.23 | 21.6% | 12.3% | 25 | +0.39 | 3.84 | 254 | 78 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .293 | 4.16 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.22 | 3.50 | 472 | 78 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.77 | 16.3% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .279 | 4.10 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 216 | +0.33 | 3.74 | 459 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 67 | 20.6% | 6.0% | 0.97 | 3.87 |
| Nick Vincent ('20) | 6 | 45 | 22.7% | 6.3% | 1.13 | 3.71 |
| Tommy Hunter ('23) | 7 | 41 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 1.00 | 3.72 |
| Adam Cimber ('24) | 6 | 52 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 0.75 | 3.75 |
| Tony Watson ('21) | 6 | 64 | 21.0% | 6.4% | 0.91 | 3.09 |
| Joe Smith ('22) | 7 | 44 | 22.5% | 6.4% | 1.08 | 3.67 |
| Trevor Gott ('23) | 4 | 51 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 0.79 | 3.97 |