Tyson Hardin

P Nashville Sounds

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.9 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP45OGV rank#108ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	ACarolina Mudc…	2	1	4	4.91	3.65	11.8%	11.8%	—	K 11.8% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.60
2025	23	MIX2 levels	21	21	96	2.72	2.04	24.7%	4.4%	—	K 19.4% · BB 4.9% · FIP 2.52
2026	24	MIX2 levels	26	25	120	5.34	2.90	26.9%	7.2%	—	K 22.7% · BB 6.9% · FIP 3.38
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIL	2	2	14	3.79	3.79	22.1%	6.3%	0.3
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBMIL	11	11	67	3.89	3.88	22.2%	6.4%	1.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBMIL	14	14	82	3.94	3.96	22.2%	6.6%	1.5

Next 3 projected WAR 3.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$5M2033Arb-3$5M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 14, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 77%

CompsBrian Edgington (age 25) · Shumpei Yoshikawa (age 24) · Tyler Stuart (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA3.79

FIP3.79

K%22.1%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%15.8%

Proj IP140

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 140 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$50M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$10M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$10M	+$10M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+1.4	$8M	+$6M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+1.2	$7M	+$4M
2033	Arb-3	$5M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$11M		$47M	+$38M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	2	1	4	17	2	2	0	50%	1.8	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	0.0%	4.91	3.60	—
2024	22	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	2	1	4	17	2	2	0	50%	1.8	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	0.0%	4.91	3.60	—
2024	22	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	2	1	4	17	2	2	0	50%	1.8	11.8%	11.8%	0.0%	0.0%	4.91	3.65	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	96	388	96	17	3	100%	4.6	19.4%	4.9%	14.5%	0.8%	2.72	2.52	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	96	388	96	17	3	100%	4.6	19.4%	4.9%	14.5%	0.8%	2.72	2.52	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	96	388	96	17	3	100%	4.6	24.7%	4.4%	20.4%	0.8%	2.72	2.04	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	120	516	139	37	11	96%	4.6	22.7%	6.9%	15.8%	2.4%	5.34	3.38	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	120	516	139	37	11	96%	4.6	22.7%	6.9%	15.8%	2.4%	5.34	3.38	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	120	516	139	37	11	96%	4.6	26.9%	7.2%	19.8%	2.1%	5.34	2.90	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIL	2	2	14	59	13	4	1	100%	7.0	22.1%	6.3%	15.8%	2.5%	3.79	3.79	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	140	590	131	38	15	100%	6.1	22.2%	6.4%	15.9%	2.6%	3.82	3.81	+2.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	125	526	117	34	14	100%	5.9	22.2%	6.6%	15.7%	2.6%	3.87	3.89	+2.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	120	508	112	34	14	100%	6.0	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	2.8%	3.95	3.99	+2.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	112	473	103	33	14	100%	5.9	21.8%	7.0%	14.8%	2.9%	4.06	4.13	+1.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	102	432	93	32	13	100%	6.0	21.5%	7.3%	14.2%	3.1%	4.21	4.30	+1.3
2033	31	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	92	386	81	30	13	100%	6.1	21.1%	7.7%	13.4%	3.3%	4.39	4.50	+1.0
2034	32	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	80	339	70	27	12	100%	6.2	20.6%	8.1%	12.6%	3.6%	4.59	4.73	+0.6
2035	33	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	69	293	59	25	11	100%	5.8	20.1%	8.5%	11.6%	3.9%	4.82	4.98	+0.3
2036	34	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	59	251	49	23	10	100%	5.9	19.6%	9.0%	10.6%	4.2%	5.08	5.25	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	67	283	63	18	8	100%	6.1	22.2%	6.4%	15.9%	2.7%	3.89	3.88	+1.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	82	346	77	23	10	100%	5.9	22.2%	6.6%	15.7%	2.8%	3.94	3.96	+1.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	93	393	87	27	11	100%	5.8	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	2.9%	4.03	4.07	+1.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	93	393	86	28	12	100%	5.8	21.8%	7.0%	14.8%	3.1%	4.14	4.21	+1.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	89	376	81	27	12	100%	5.9	21.5%	7.3%	14.2%	3.3%	4.30	4.39	+1.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	82	346	73	27	12	100%	5.9	21.1%	7.7%	13.4%	3.5%	4.48	4.59	+0.9
2034	32	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	73	308	64	25	12	100%	6.1	20.6%	8.1%	12.6%	3.8%	4.69	4.83	+0.6
2035	33	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	64	270	54	23	11	100%	5.8	20.1%	8.5%	11.6%	4.1%	4.93	5.09	+0.3
2036	34	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	52	220	43	20	10	100%	5.8	19.6%	9.0%	10.6%	4.4%	5.19	5.36	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		116	116	695	2935	627	216	97	100%	6.0	21.4%	7.4%	14.0%	3.3%	4.35	4.05	+11.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	180	62	28	100%	6.0	21.4%	7.4%	14.0%	3.3%	4.35	4.05	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		49	47	219	921	195	57	16	96%	4.5	21.1%	6.2%	15.0%	1.7%	4.19	3.03	+11.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	43	200	840	178	52	14	96%	4.5	21.1%	6.2%	15.0%	1.7%	4.19	3.03	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 90 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.13 (+0.32)K% 25.5% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.53%	—	×0.860	21.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.65%	—	×0.900	5.98%
HR / BF /BF	1.86%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.05%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AABiloxi Shuckers · 29 IPFIP 3.16 → 4.08 (+0.92)K% 30.7% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.71%	—	×0.810	24.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.57%	—	×1.100	9.43%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.43%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.16 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 58 IPFIP 1.33 → 1.93 (+0.59)K% 26.7% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.72%	—	×0.770	20.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.88%	—	×1.150	4.46%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.246	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 149).

Result: FIP 1.33 → 1.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABiloxi Shuckers · 38 IPFIP 2.96 → 3.41 (+0.44)K% 21.8% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.79%	—	×0.810	17.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.13%	—	×1.100	5.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷1.170	×1.200	1.97%

Result: FIP 2.96 → 3.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyson Hardin (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	3.89	22.2%	15.6%	385	+0.10	—	—	—
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	86
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	84
Tyler Stuart R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP	3.53	21.1%	7.4%	2.3%	.319	6.01	15.6%	0.6%	19	+2.48	3.53	252	84
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	83
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	825	83
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	83
Chad Patrick R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP	3.92	22.5%	6.3%	3.5%	.262	3.78	23.0%	14.2%	268	-0.14	3.69	570	82
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	81
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	80
Rhett Lowder R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	22	SP	3.36	19.3%	7.3%	1.7%	.301	4.33	17.1%	8.0%	133	+0.97	3.36	267	80
Mason Adams R 2024 · 3.72 FIP	24	SP	3.72	18.2%	5.9%	2.6%	.290	3.83	22.6%	13.3%	78	+0.11	3.67	307	80
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	79
Wes Parsons R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	25	SP	3.56	18.4%	7.7%	1.9%	.274	4.01	18.5%	6.1%	91	+0.45	3.00	483	79
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	79
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	79
M.D. Johnson R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP	4.27	21.3%	7.1%	3.8%	.269	4.85	15.7%	4.1%	181	+0.58	3.52	395	78
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	78
Mike Hauschild R 2015 · 3.26 FIP	25	SP	3.26	17.2%	6.4%	1.5%	.311	3.78	17.5%	8.1%	349	+0.52	3.17	579	77
Julian Merryweather R 2017 · 3.79 FIP	25	SP	3.79	19.4%	6.6%	2.7%	.330	2.18	27.3%	16.4%	13	-1.61	2.18	548	77
Gavin Stone R 2024 · 3.85 FIP	25	SP	3.85	20.0%	6.4%	3.0%	.281	3.33	29.6%	23.7%	15	-0.52	2.39	500	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.2	104	21.6%	7.1%	1.16	4.15
Chris Capuano ('16)	7.1	119	19.5%	7.5%	1.23	4.38
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Greg Harris ('88-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	130	19.7%*	7.9%*	1.40*	4.10*
Larry McWilliams ('78-'90, 10 WAR*)	7.8	130	19.0%*	8.1%*	1.24*	4.56*