Tyson Hardin
P
Biloxi Shuckers
+1.5
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.9 · 2029
ERA3.92
FIP3.92
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.3%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%14.2%
IP96
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.9peak
2029
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.91 | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 21 | 21 | 96 | 388 | 96 | 17 | 3 | 19.4% | 4.9% | 0.8% | 2.72 | 2.54 | +3.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 2 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 10.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIL | 17 | 17 | 96 | 405 | 86 | 29 | 10 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 3.92 | 3.92 | +1.5 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 102 | 435 | 98 | 33 | 11 | 22.6% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 4.31 | 3.69 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 100 | 33 | 11 | 21.8% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 3.92 | 3.90 | +1.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 116 | 491 | 108 | 35 | 12 | 22.0% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 3.92 | 3.90 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 119 | 504 | 111 | 36 | 13 | 22.0% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 3.93 | 3.93 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 120 | 505 | 111 | 36 | 13 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 3.95 | 3.96 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 117 | 493 | 108 | 36 | 13 | 21.9% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 3.98 | 4.01 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 113 | 478 | 104 | 35 | 13 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.07 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 99 | 35 | 13 | 21.4% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.14 | +1.4 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 105 | 443 | 94 | 34 | 13 | 21.1% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.23 | +1.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 88 | 33 | 12 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.33 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 17 | 17 | 95 | 402 | 82 | 32 | 12 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.44 | +0.9 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 16 | 90 | 379 | 76 | 31 | 12 | 20.1% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.56 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 15 | 15 | 84 | 354 | 70 | 30 | 12 | 19.7% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.69 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 70 | 26 | 11 | 21.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.57 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 25 | 24 | 106 | 435 | 89 | 25 | 4 | 20.5% | 5.8% | 1.0% | 3.24 | 2.63 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 45 | 200 | 823 | 168 | 47 | 8 | 20.5% | 5.8% | 1.0% | 3.24 | 2.63 | +6.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyson Hardin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.92 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 2.4% | — | 3.91 | 21.9% | 14.8% | 345 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 90 |
| Ian Gardeck R 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.93 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 105 | 90 |
| Alex FaGalde R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.79 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .266 | 4.98 | 16.1% | 6.4% | 162 | +1.19 | 3.79 | 279 | 90 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 90 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 89 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.68 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.69 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 332 | +1.01 | 3.68 | 523 | 89 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 88 |
| Mitchell Kilkenny R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.64 | 17.6% | 5.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 5.79 | 13.4% | 5.1% | 124 | +2.15 | 3.18 | 237 | 88 |
| Alex Colomé R 2028 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .309 | 2.86 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.43 | 2.61 | 530 | 88 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | .336 | 6.35 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.48 | 3.87 | 124 | 88 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 87 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 87 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 87 |
| Braydon Tucker R 2027 · 3.24 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.24 | 18.3% | 7.1% | 1.4% | .291 | 3.82 | 13.8% | 5.0% | 105 | +0.58 | 3.24 | 211 | 87 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .319 | 6.02 | 15.6% | 0.6% | 19 | +2.47 | 3.55 | 252 | 87 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 86 |
| Gabe Mosser R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.77 | 17.7% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .346 | 4.58 | 14.9% | 6.9% | 104 | +0.81 | 3.35 | 541 | 86 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2028 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.65 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .262 | 3.09 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.56 | 3.09 | 137 | 86 |
| Jason Forjet R 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.36 | 17.0% | 5.3% | 1.9% | .290 | 4.48 | 15.9% | 10.4% | 102 | +1.12 | 3.36 | 197 | 86 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.70 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 101 | -0.46 | 1.87 | 210 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.9 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.7 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.6 | $15M | +$12M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.4 | $14M | +$9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.3 | $13M | +$7M |
| Totals | $17M | $91M | +$73M | ||