Jurrangelo Cijntje

P Springfield Cardinals

Age 24 SHP 5'11" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#221ETA2028MLB%6%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	26	23	108	3.99	4.10	26.1%	11.1%	—	K 20.5% · BB 12.6% · FIP 5.17
2026	23	MIX2 levels	28	28	133	4.87	3.74	27.8%	11.5%	—	K 23.0% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.43
2027PROJ	24	MLBSTL	1	1	6	4.63	4.63	24.2%	12.2%	0.1
2028PROJ46% MLB	25	MLBSTL	9	9	53	4.41	4.36	24.4%	11.1%	0.6
2029PROJ68% MLB	26	MLBSTL	13	13	79	4.35	4.32	24.4%	10.8%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.2 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 14, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 75%

CompsIsaac Coffey (age 24) · Riley Gowens (age 24) · Roman Angelo (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINST113

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%24.2%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%12.0%

Proj IP106

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 106 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$27M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$3M	+$1M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$18M	+$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	108	459	120	51	15	88%	4.2	20.5%	12.6%	7.8%	4.0%	3.99	5.17	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	108	459	120	51	15	88%	4.2	20.5%	12.6%	7.8%	4.0%	3.99	5.17	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	108	459	120	51	15	88%	4.2	26.1%	11.1%	15.0%	3.3%	3.99	4.10	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	133	583	162	67	16	100%	4.8	23.0%	11.7%	11.3%	3.3%	4.87	4.43	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	133	583	162	67	16	100%	4.8	23.0%	11.7%	11.3%	3.3%	4.87	4.43	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	133	583	162	67	16	100%	4.8	27.8%	11.5%	16.3%	2.7%	4.87	3.74	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	STL	1	1	6	25	6	3	1	100%	6.0	24.2%	12.2%	12.0%	3.0%	4.63	4.63	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	115	485	118	54	14	100%	5.7	24.4%	11.1%	13.3%	3.0%	4.52	4.47	+1.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	116	489	119	53	15	100%	6.1	24.4%	10.8%	13.6%	3.0%	4.46	4.43	+1.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	111	467	114	50	14	100%	6.1	24.3%	10.8%	13.6%	3.0%	4.45	4.46	+1.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	105	443	107	48	14	100%	5.8	24.1%	10.8%	13.3%	3.1%	4.50	4.54	+1.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	98	412	98	46	14	100%	6.1	23.9%	11.1%	12.8%	3.3%	4.60	4.67	+0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	89	374	88	42	13	100%	5.9	23.5%	11.3%	12.2%	3.5%	4.75	4.84	+0.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	79	334	77	39	12	100%	6.1	23.1%	11.7%	11.4%	3.7%	4.93	5.04	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	53	224	55	25	6	100%	5.9	24.4%	11.1%	13.3%	2.8%	4.41	4.36	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	79	334	82	36	9	100%	6.1	24.4%	10.8%	13.6%	2.8%	4.35	4.32	+0.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	87	367	89	40	10	100%	6.2	24.3%	10.8%	13.6%	2.8%	4.33	4.34	+1.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	89	376	91	41	11	100%	5.9	24.1%	10.8%	13.3%	2.9%	4.38	4.42	+0.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	86	363	87	40	11	100%	6.1	23.9%	11.1%	12.8%	3.1%	4.47	4.54	+0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	80	338	80	38	11	100%	6.2	23.5%	11.3%	12.2%	3.2%	4.62	4.71	+0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	73	308	71	36	11	100%	6.1	23.1%	11.7%	11.4%	3.5%	4.79	4.90	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		91	91	546	2304	552	255	69	100%	6.0	24.0%	11.1%	12.9%	3.0%	4.47	4.13	+8.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	202	93	25	100%	6.0	24.0%	11.1%	12.9%	3.0%	4.47	4.13	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		54	51	241	1042	228	126	37	94%	4.5	21.9%	12.1%	9.8%	3.6%	4.48	4.75	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	42	200	864	189	105	31	94%	4.5	21.9%	12.1%	9.8%	3.6%	4.48	4.75	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 80 IPFIP 4.32 → 5.35 (+1.03)K% 28.2% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.25%	—	×0.810	22.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.30%	—	×1.100	12.43%
HR / BF /BF	3.95%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.75%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.32 → 5.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 53 IPFIP 2.79 → 3.01 (+0.22)K% 27.1% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.07%	—	×0.860	23.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.79%	—	×0.900	10.61%
HR / BF /BF	0.87%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.96%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.79 → 3.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Everett AquaSox · 75 IPFIP 4.73 → 5.96 (+1.23)K% 26.4% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.43%	—	×0.770	20.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.15%	—	×1.150	12.82%
HR / BF /BF	4.46%	÷1.036	×1.250	5.38%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 4.73 → 5.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAArkansas Travelers · 34 IPFIP 2.72 → 3.46 (+0.74)K% 25.5% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.52%	—	×0.810	20.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.03%	—	×1.100	12.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.69%	÷0.800	×1.200	1.03%

Result: FIP 2.72 → 3.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jurrangelo Cijntje (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.45	24.4%	13.5%	341	-0.18	—	—	—
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	89
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	89
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	88
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	88
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	87
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	87
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.27	25.0%	14.6%	148	+0.06	2.00	352	87
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	86
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.31	18.5%	11.5%	428	+0.01	3.24	669	85
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	85
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	84
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	84
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	84
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	84
Kyle Bradish R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.30	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.30	2.20	750	84
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	83
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	83
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.10	18.0%	7.8%	304	+1.16	3.61	547	83
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	82
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	102	24.1%	11.2%	1.23	4.59
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Bobby Castillo ('77-'85, 5 WAR*)	3.4	86	22.3%*	11.3%*	1.23*	4.27*
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*