Gage Wood

P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.2 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP45OGV rank#84ETA2028MLB%6%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	APHI	1	1	2	4.50	1.10	55.6%	22.2%	—	K 55.6% · BB 22.2% · FIP 1.22
2026	22	MIX2 levels	25	25	95	4.36	3.31	34.4%	7.4%	—	K 27.2% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.51
2027PROJ	23	MLBPHI	1	1	6	4.11	4.11	25.8%	7.7%	0.1
2028PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBPHI	9	9	50	4.20	4.16	26.0%	7.5%	0.8
2029PROJ68% MLB	25	MLBPHI	14	14	80	4.16	4.12	26.1%	7.4%	1.3

Next 3 projected WAR 2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$4M2033Arb-2$5M2034Arb-3$6M

Career WAR0.5 WAR median (P10 -0.8 / P90 24, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 66%

CompsKyle Brnovich (age 23) · Jaden Hamm (age 21) · Braxton Bragg (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.11

FIP4.11

K%25.8%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%18.1%

Proj IP95

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$60M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$11M	+$10M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.7	$10M	+$9M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+1.6	$9M	+$7M
2033	Arb-2	$5M	+1.4	$7M	+$4M
2034	Arb-3	$6M	+1.1	$5M	+$2M
Totals		$17M		$51M	+$41M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	1	1	2	9	5	2	0	100%	2.0	55.6%	22.2%	33.3%	0.0%	4.50	1.22	—
2025	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	1	1	2	9	5	2	0	100%	2.0	55.6%	22.2%	33.3%	0.0%	4.50	1.22	—
2025	21	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	1	1	2	9	5	2	0	100%	2.0	55.6%	22.2%	33.3%	0.0%	4.50	1.10	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	95	404	139	30	16	100%	3.8	27.2%	8.4%	18.8%	4.8%	4.36	4.51	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	95	404	139	30	16	100%	3.8	27.2%	8.4%	18.8%	4.8%	4.36	4.51	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	95	404	139	30	16	100%	3.8	34.4%	7.4%	27.0%	4.0%	4.36	3.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	PHI	1	1	6	25	7	2	1	100%	6.0	25.8%	7.7%	18.1%	3.3%	4.11	4.11	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	PHI	19	19	109	460	120	35	15	100%	5.7	26.0%	7.5%	18.5%	3.3%	4.07	4.03	+1.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	PHI	20	20	117	494	129	37	16	100%	5.9	26.1%	7.4%	18.7%	3.2%	4.03	3.99	+2.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	PHI	21	21	124	525	137	39	17	100%	5.9	26.1%	7.4%	18.7%	3.2%	4.01	3.98	+2.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	PHI	20	20	122	513	133	38	17	100%	6.1	26.0%	7.4%	18.5%	3.3%	4.02	4.02	+2.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	PHI	19	19	117	493	127	37	17	100%	6.1	25.9%	7.6%	18.2%	3.4%	4.07	4.11	+1.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	PHI	18	18	110	463	119	36	16	100%	6.1	25.6%	7.8%	17.8%	3.5%	4.17	4.24	+1.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	PHI	17	17	100	423	107	34	16	100%	5.9	25.3%	8.1%	17.1%	3.7%	4.32	4.42	+1.2
2035	31	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	90	379	94	32	15	100%	6.0	24.9%	8.5%	16.4%	3.9%	4.50	4.62	+0.8
2036	32	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	79	333	81	30	14	100%	6.1	24.4%	8.9%	15.5%	4.2%	4.71	4.84	+0.5
2037	33	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	68	287	69	27	13	100%	6.2	23.9%	9.3%	14.6%	4.5%	4.94	5.09	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	PHI	9	9	50	211	55	16	7	100%	5.6	26.0%	7.5%	18.5%	3.5%	4.20	4.16	+0.8
2029	25	MLB CTX	PHI	14	14	80	338	88	25	12	100%	5.7	26.1%	7.4%	18.7%	3.5%	4.16	4.12	+1.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	PHI	17	17	100	422	110	31	15	100%	5.9	26.1%	7.4%	18.7%	3.5%	4.14	4.11	+1.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	PHI	17	17	104	439	114	33	15	100%	6.1	26.0%	7.4%	18.5%	3.5%	4.15	4.15	+1.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	PHI	17	17	104	439	114	33	16	100%	6.1	25.9%	7.6%	18.2%	3.6%	4.20	4.24	+1.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	PHI	17	17	100	422	108	33	16	100%	5.9	25.6%	7.8%	17.8%	3.8%	4.31	4.38	+1.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	PHI	16	16	93	393	99	32	16	100%	5.8	25.3%	8.1%	17.1%	4.0%	4.47	4.57	+1.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	PHI	14	14	84	355	88	30	15	100%	6.0	24.9%	8.5%	16.4%	4.2%	4.66	4.78	+0.8
2036	32	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	74	312	76	28	14	100%	6.2	24.4%	8.9%	15.5%	4.5%	4.88	5.01	+0.5
2037	33	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	65	274	66	26	13	100%	5.9	23.9%	9.3%	14.6%	4.8%	5.12	5.27	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		143	143	853	3600	917	286	138	100%	6.0	25.5%	7.9%	17.5%	3.8%	4.40	4.07	+13.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	215	67	32	100%	6.0	25.5%	7.9%	17.5%	3.8%	4.40	4.07	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		26	26	97	413	115	36	19	100%	3.7	27.8%	8.7%	19.1%	4.7%	4.36	4.43	+13.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	54	200	852	237	74	40	100%	3.7	27.8%	8.7%	19.1%	4.7%	4.36	4.43	+2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAReading Fightin Phils · 69 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.76 (+1.12)K% 33.1% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.11%	—	×0.810	26.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.02%	—	×1.100	6.62%
HR / BF /BF	4.68%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.62%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AClearwater Threshers · 26 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.79 (+1.41)K% 38.1% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.10%	—	×0.740	28.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×1.180	13.49%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.48%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gage Wood (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.00	26.1%	18.6%	350	-0.11	—	—	—
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	86
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	85
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	84
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	81
Mason Black R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP	4.23	25.2%	10.0%	3.6%	.284	5.09	18.0%	8.3%	333	+0.86	3.95	569	80
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	80
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	80
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	80
Griffin Canning R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	23	SP	3.60	25.0%	7.2%	3.1%	.277	4.71	22.9%	13.0%	119	+1.11	3.60	809	79
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	362	-0.39	3.82	579	78
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	78
David Festa R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP	3.68	24.5%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.71	27.2%	19.1%	209	+0.03	3.67	405	78
Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2021 · 3.87 FIP	23	SP	3.87	24.0%	7.6%	3.4%	.360	4.59	22.7%	15.9%	243	+0.72	3.87	512	78
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	77
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.03	19.7%	12.5%	153	-0.63	3.62	266	77
German Nunez R 2024 · 3.00 FIP	22	SP	3.00	24.8%	6.8%	2.1%	.298	3.36	22.1%	11.2%	19	+0.36	2.27	151	77
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.75	21.2%	12.0%	217	+0.23	4.39	458	77
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	77
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.27	25.0%	14.6%	148	+0.06	2.00	352	77
Gavin Williams R 2022 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	26.2%	9.9%	2.4%	.238	3.87	25.1%	14.3%	398	+0.43	3.39	697	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.6	103	25.6%	7.9%	1.37	4.22
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Bob Johnson ('69-'77, 6 WAR*)	3.5	115	23.4%*	8.9%*	1.49*	4.12*
Pete Richert ('62-'74, 13 WAR*)	5.8	90	24.4%*	8.8%*	1.26*	4.04*
Chuck Cary ('85-'93, 3 WAR*)	2.1	68	24.6%*	8.7%*	1.45*	4.41*