Keyner Martinez
P
San Jose Giants
+0.6
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'1" / 209 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.8 · 2029
ERA4.29
FIP4.29
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.4%
IP57
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2029
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Giants | 19 | 0 | 33 | 141 | 23 | 16 | 2 | 11.1% | 14.2% | 1.6% | 3.03 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | San Jose Giants | 21 | 11 | 69 | 284 | 97 | 21 | 3 | 23.9% | 9.0% | 1.1% | 2.21 | 2.81 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | San Jose Giants | 2 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 9 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 9.45 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SF | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 55 | 23 | 7 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | SF | — | — | 64 | 272 | 64 | 27 | 8 | 23.7% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 3.84 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SF | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 61 | 23 | 7 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.11 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 65 | 23 | 7 | 24.6% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.08 | 3.99 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 68 | 23 | 7 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 3.91 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 70 | 23 | 7 | 25.4% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.92 | 3.87 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 70 | 22 | 7 | 25.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.87 | 3.84 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 70 | 22 | 7 | 25.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.86 | 3.85 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 63 | 267 | 68 | 22 | 7 | 25.6% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 3.87 | 3.88 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 67 | 22 | 7 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 3.90 | 3.93 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | SF | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 64 | 21 | 7 | 25.3% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 3.95 | 3.99 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | SF | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 61 | 21 | 7 | 25.1% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.02 | 4.06 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | SF | 56 | — | 56 | 234 | 58 | 20 | 7 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | SF | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 55 | 20 | 7 | 24.5% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | SF | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 51 | 19 | 7 | 24.1% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.29 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 42 | 13 | 109 | 456 | 92 | 49 | 6 | 20.3% | 10.9% | 1.4% | 2.90 | 3.52 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 24 | 200 | 839 | 169 | 90 | 11 | 20.3% | 10.9% | 1.4% | 2.90 | 3.52 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Keyner Martinez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.00 | 24.6% | 16.0% | 186 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Sam Bragg R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.26 | 23.2% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .306 | 3.98 | 15.7% | 8.5% | 203 | +0.72 | 3.26 | 277 | 90 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.90 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 167 | -0.40 | 3.06 | 230 | 89 |
| John Russell R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.98 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 4.78 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 60 | +0.80 | 3.92 | 158 | 89 |
| Alejandro Chacin R 2027 · 2.87 FIP | 22 | SW | 2.87 | 26.0% | 8.2% | 1.7% | .298 | 3.72 | 21.5% | 11.4% | 166 | +0.85 | 2.87 | 217 | 89 |
| Parker Curry R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.75 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .341 | 4.60 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 193 | +0.85 | 3.75 | 256 | 88 |
| Edward Escoboza R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.89 | 21.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .321 | 5.42 | 14.9% | 9.4% | 36 | +1.53 | 3.44 | 213 | 88 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2028 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .293 | 4.53 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.82 | 2.08 | 276 | 88 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.03 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .329 | 3.52 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.51 | 2.48 | 281 | 88 |
| David Garner R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.52 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.81 | 154 | 88 |
| J.B. Wendelken R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.41 | 23.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .288 | 3.88 | 27.2% | 16.4% | 124 | +0.47 | 3.02 | 393 | 87 |
| Adam Parks R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.77 | 21.4% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .356 | 4.10 | 24.1% | 16.7% | 64 | +0.33 | 3.45 | 137 | 87 |
| Zach Agnos R 2027 · 3.13 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.13 | 22.8% | 6.9% | 2.0% | .265 | 3.79 | 20.7% | 12.6% | 84 | +0.66 | 2.73 | 136 | 87 |
| Alex Cook R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.03 | 26.1% | 10.8% | 3.2% | .266 | 3.34 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 53 | -0.69 | 2.94 | 119 | 87 |
| Dualvert Gutierrez R 2025 · 3.18 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.18 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .352 | 4.29 | 15.9% | 2.2% | 78 | +1.11 | 3.18 | 130 | 87 |
| Jack Anderson R 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.09 | 21.7% | 6.1% | 1.9% | .333 | 4.28 | 18.8% | 12.8% | 207 | +1.19 | 3.09 | 267 | 86 |
| RJ Petit R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.50 | 20.3% | 8.4% | 3.7% | .270 | 3.45 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 177 | -1.05 | 3.09 | 231 | 86 |
| Luke Eubank R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.21 | 19.9% | 6.7% | 1.7% | .283 | 3.67 | 18.1% | 8.7% | 94 | +0.46 | 3.18 | 157 | 86 |
| Nick Rumbelow R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.21 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .295 | 3.40 | 24.8% | 16.4% | 64 | +0.19 | 2.03 | 164 | 86 |
| Brendan Collins R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.69 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.16 | 3.69 | 122 | 86 |
| Breckin Williams R 2029 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.63 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .282 | 2.78 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.85 | 2.77 | 107 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.7 | $4M | +$1.0M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $7M | $19M | +$11M | ||