Keyner Martinez — OGILVIE

Keyner Martinez P San Jose Giants

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 209 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.9 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION94 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.17

FIP4.17

K%22.9%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%14.4%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$69M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5550

CTRL4555

CMD6565

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$11M	+$10M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$13M	+$12M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.3	$14M	+$13M
2031	Arb-1	$8M	+2.5	$14M	+$9M
2032	Arb-2	$13M	+2.4	$12M	+$5M
2033	Arb-3	$17M	+2.1	$10M	+$2M
Totals		$40M		$73M	+$52M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	19	0	33	141	23	16	2	0%	1.7	11.1%	14.2%	-3.1%	1.7%	3.03	4.89	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	19	0	33	141	23	16	2	0%	1.7	11.1%	14.2%	-3.1%	1.7%	3.03	4.89	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	19	0	33	141	23	16	2	0%	1.7	16.3%	11.3%	5.0%	1.4%	3.03	3.96	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	11	69	284	97	21	3	52%	3.3	23.9%	9.0%	14.9%	1.1%	2.21	2.83	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	11	69	284	97	21	3	52%	3.3	23.9%	9.0%	14.9%	1.1%	2.21	2.83	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	11	69	284	97	21	3	52%	3.3	34.2%	7.4%	26.8%	1.1%	2.21	1.77	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	San Jose Giants	22	22	94	399	134	47	11	100%	4.3	24.9%	13.9%	11.0%	3.6%	4.61	4.73	—
YTD	21	A MLE	San Jose Giants	22	22	94	399	134	47	11	100%	4.3	24.9%	13.9%	11.0%	3.6%	4.61	4.73	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	SF	22	22	94	399	134	47	11	100%	4.3	33.6%	11.8%	21.8%	2.8%	4.61	3.27	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	SF	2	2	8	32	7	3	1	100%	3.8	22.9%	8.5%	14.4%	2.8%	4.17	4.17	+0.1
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	101	431	141	50	12	—	—	32.8%	11.5%	21.3%	2.8%	4.58	4.69	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SF	25	25	132	559	132	42	16	100%	5.3	23.7%	7.5%	16.2%	2.8%	4.04	3.95	+1.5
2028	23	MLB MLE	SF	32	32	171	723	176	50	20	100%	5.4	24.3%	6.9%	17.4%	2.7%	3.91	3.81	+2.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	SF	31	31	175	739	183	49	20	100%	5.6	24.7%	6.6%	18.1%	2.7%	3.81	3.73	+2.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	SF	30	30	177	748	187	48	20	100%	5.9	25.1%	6.4%	18.6%	2.7%	3.73	3.67	+2.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	SF	30	30	177	748	189	48	20	100%	5.9	25.2%	6.4%	18.9%	2.7%	3.68	3.65	+2.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	SF	29	29	174	737	186	48	20	100%	6.0	25.2%	6.5%	18.8%	2.8%	3.69	3.69	+2.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	SF	28	28	169	715	180	47	21	100%	6.0	25.1%	6.6%	18.5%	2.9%	3.74	3.77	+2.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	SF	27	27	162	683	170	47	21	100%	6.0	24.9%	6.8%	18.0%	3.0%	3.84	3.90	+1.9
2035	30	MLB MLE	SF	25	25	152	642	157	46	21	100%	6.1	24.5%	7.1%	17.4%	3.2%	3.98	4.08	+1.5
2036	31	MLB MLE	SF	24	24	142	598	144	45	21	100%	5.9	24.1%	7.5%	16.6%	3.4%	4.16	4.28	+1.0
2037	32	MLB MLE	SF	22	22	131	554	131	44	20	100%	6.0	23.7%	7.9%	15.8%	3.7%	4.37	4.51	+0.6
2038	33	MLB MLE	SF	20	20	120	508	118	42	20	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.3%	14.8%	4.0%	4.60	4.76	+0.2
2039	34	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	110	462	105	41	20	100%	6.1	22.6%	8.8%	13.8%	4.3%	4.86	5.03	-0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	65	274	65	21	7	100%	5.4	23.7%	7.5%	16.2%	2.6%	3.93	3.84	+0.7
2028	23	MLB CTX	SF	23	23	125	528	128	37	13	100%	5.4	24.3%	6.9%	17.4%	2.5%	3.80	3.70	+1.6
2029	24	MLB CTX	SF	26	26	145	612	151	40	15	100%	5.6	24.7%	6.6%	18.1%	2.5%	3.70	3.62	+2.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	SF	27	27	156	659	165	42	17	100%	5.8	25.1%	6.4%	18.6%	2.5%	3.62	3.56	+2.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	SF	27	27	162	684	173	44	17	100%	6.0	25.2%	6.4%	18.9%	2.5%	3.57	3.54	+2.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	SF	27	27	162	684	173	44	18	100%	6.0	25.2%	6.5%	18.8%	2.6%	3.58	3.58	+2.4
2033	28	MLB CTX	SF	26	26	158	667	168	44	18	100%	6.1	25.1%	6.6%	18.5%	2.7%	3.62	3.65	+2.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	SF	26	26	154	650	162	44	18	100%	5.9	24.9%	6.8%	18.0%	2.8%	3.72	3.78	+1.8
2035	30	MLB CTX	SF	24	24	144	608	149	43	18	100%	6.0	24.5%	7.1%	17.4%	3.0%	3.85	3.95	+1.4
2036	31	MLB CTX	SF	22	22	135	570	138	43	18	100%	6.1	24.1%	7.5%	16.6%	3.2%	4.02	4.14	+1.0
2037	32	MLB CTX	SF	21	21	125	528	125	42	18	100%	6.0	23.7%	7.9%	15.8%	3.4%	4.22	4.36	+0.6
2038	33	MLB CTX	SF	19	19	114	481	112	40	18	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.3%	14.8%	3.7%	4.44	4.60	+0.2
2039	34	MLB CTX	SF	16	16	99	418	95	37	17	100%	6.2	22.6%	8.8%	13.8%	4.0%	4.68	4.85	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		297	297	1744	7363	1802	521	212	100%	5.9	24.5%	7.1%	17.4%	2.9%	3.86	3.51	+29.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	207	60	24	100%	5.9	24.5%	7.1%	17.4%	2.9%	3.86	3.51	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		62	33	196	824	183	101	20	53%	3.2	22.2%	12.2%	9.9%	2.4%	3.50	4.10	+21.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	34	200	842	187	103	20	53%	3.2	22.2%	12.2%	9.9%	2.4%	3.50	4.10	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keyner Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	22.9%	8.5%	2.8%	—	3.82	24.3%	17.3%	479	-0.35	—	—	—
Javi Rivera R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	22.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.259	3.72	18.6%	9.0%	93	-0.06	2.81	274	92
Brandon Bailey R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP-	3.54	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.90	3.54	306	90
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	86
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	85
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	84
Logan Hofmann R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	21	SP-	4.57	22.1%	11.3%	3.5%	.239	6.80	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.23	4.57	129	83
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	82
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.13	24.0%	11.4%	56	+0.78	2.93	103	81
Dualvert Gutierrez R 2021 · 3.22 FIP	20	SP-	3.22	23.5%	9.1%	1.7%	.352	4.29	15.9%	2.2%	78	+1.07	3.22	130	81
Brett Conine R 2019 · 3.21 FIP	22	SP-	3.21	22.3%	7.2%	2.0%	.290	5.76	15.4%	4.9%	205	+2.55	3.21	319	81
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	81
Adam Leverett R 2021 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP-	3.41	20.4%	10.0%	1.4%	.274	4.46	16.0%	6.9%	228	+1.05	3.41	401	80
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	80
Nick Sinacola R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP-	4.44	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.05	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.39	3.56	357	80
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	80
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	304	80
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	80
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	80
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	80
Julian Aguiar R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	21	SP-	4.85	20.4%	6.9%	4.7%	.295	3.96	18.1%	10.9%	273	-0.89	3.38	409	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.4	149	24.4%	7.1%	1.19	3.99
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01