Keyner Martinez — OGILVIE

Keyner Martinez P San Jose Giants

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 209 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.4 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 42 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 95

ERA4.14

FIP4.14

K%22.9%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%14.5%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5550

CTRL4555

CMD6565

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	ACL Giants	19	0	33	141	23	16	2	0%	1.7	11.1%	14.2%	-3.1%	1.5%	3.03	4.76	—
2024	19	ROK	ACL Giants	19	0	33	141	23	16	2	0%	1.7	16.3%	11.3%	5.0%	1.4%	3.03	3.96	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	21	11	69	284	97	21	3	52%	3.3	23.9%	9.0%	14.9%	0.9%	2.21	2.73	—
2025	20	MIX	2 levels	21	11	69	284	97	21	3	52%	3.3	34.2%	7.4%	26.8%	1.1%	2.21	1.77	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A	San Jose Giants	14	14	60	258	96	36	7	100%	4.3	27.5%	16.5%	11.1%	3.5%	4.50	4.80	-0.2
ROS	21	MLB	SF	9	9	42	177	41	15	5	100%	4.7	22.9%	8.3%	14.5%	2.8%	4.14	4.14	+0.2
ROS	21	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.9%	8.3%	14.5%	2.7%	4.08	4.08	—
2026 TOT	21	MLB	SF	—	—	102	435	137	51	12	—	—	31.4%	11.7%	19.7%	2.7%	4.35	4.53	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	SF	8	8	44	186	44	14	5	100%	5.5	23.8%	7.5%	16.3%	2.8%	4.02	3.93	+0.3
2028	23	MLB	SF	8	8	46	193	47	14	5	100%	5.7	24.5%	7.0%	17.5%	2.7%	3.90	3.80	+0.4
2029	24	MLB	SF	8	8	47	198	50	13	5	100%	5.9	25.0%	6.8%	18.3%	2.7%	3.79	3.71	+0.5
2030	25	MLB	SF	8	8	48	201	51	13	5	100%	5.9	25.4%	6.6%	18.8%	2.7%	3.71	3.65	+0.5
2031	26	MLB	SF	8	8	48	201	51	13	5	100%	5.9	25.6%	6.5%	19.1%	2.7%	3.66	3.63	+0.5
2032	27	MLB	SF	8	8	47	198	51	13	5	100%	5.8	25.6%	6.6%	19.0%	2.8%	3.66	3.67	+0.5
2033	28	MLB	SF	8	8	45	192	49	13	5	100%	5.7	25.4%	6.8%	18.7%	2.9%	3.71	3.75	+0.4
2027	22	MLB	SF	4	4	22	93	22	7	2	100%	5.5	23.8%	7.5%	16.3%	2.6%	3.96	3.87	+0.2
2028	23	MLB	SF	6	6	33	139	34	10	4	100%	5.5	24.5%	7.0%	17.5%	2.6%	3.84	3.74	+0.3
2029	24	MLB	SF	7	7	39	165	41	11	4	100%	5.6	25.0%	6.8%	18.3%	2.6%	3.73	3.65	+0.4
2030	25	MLB	SF	7	7	42	177	45	12	5	100%	6.0	25.4%	6.6%	18.8%	2.6%	3.65	3.59	+0.5
2031	26	MLB	SF	7	7	43	182	46	12	5	100%	6.1	25.6%	6.5%	19.1%	2.6%	3.60	3.57	+0.5
2032	27	MLB	SF	7	7	43	182	46	12	5	100%	6.1	25.6%	6.6%	19.0%	2.6%	3.60	3.61	+0.5
2033	28	MLB	SF	7	7	42	177	45	12	5	100%	6.0	25.4%	6.8%	18.7%	2.7%	3.65	3.69	+0.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			45	45	265	1119	282	76	29	100%	5.9	25.2%	6.8%	18.4%	2.6%	3.69	3.27	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	213	57	22	100%	5.8	25.2%	6.8%	18.4%	2.6%	3.69	3.27	+5.0
Career	—			54	25	162	683	154	88	14	46%	3.0	22.6%	12.9%	9.7%	2.0%	3.22	3.93	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—			67	31	200	843	191	109	17	46%	3.0	22.6%	12.9%	9.7%	2.0%	3.22	3.93	+3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keyner Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.14	22.9%	8.3%	2.8%	—	3.81	24.5%	17.4%	137	-0.33	—	—	—
Connor Cooke R 2027 · 3.47 FIP	22	SP-	3.47	23.7%	8.4%	2.4%	.350	4.29	24.6%	10.4%	56	+0.82	2.92	103	90
Hunter Gregory R 2028 · 3.98 FIP	23	SP-	3.98	21.2%	8.7%	2.9%	.374	4.64	20.5%	7.6%	188	+0.66	3.18	234	84
Florencio Serrano R 2026 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.88	14.1%	3.4%	117	+1.04	3.84	206	84
Jeronimo Castro R 2026 · 3.37 FIP	21	SP-	3.37	25.2%	8.2%	2.5%	.362	3.84	20.1%	7.9%	35	+0.47	3.19	158	84
Casey Legumina R 2029 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP-	4.28	23.3%	9.3%	3.6%	.260	4.34	20.5%	11.0%	189	+0.06	3.68	323	83
Dualvert Gutierrez R 2025 · 3.14 FIP	20	SP-	3.14	23.5%	9.1%	1.6%	.352	4.24	15.9%	2.2%	78	+1.10	3.14	130	83
Michael Knorr R 2028 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP-	4.03	23.6%	11.1%	2.8%	.312	5.16	22.3%	9.9%	93	+1.13	4.03	152	82
J.C. Flowers R 2028 · 3.39 FIP	23	SP-	3.39	21.3%	8.7%	1.8%	.330	4.95	16.5%	1.9%	184	+1.56	3.39	281	81
Colin Fields R 2028 · 3.48 FIP	23	SP-	3.48	20.5%	10.3%	1.5%	.246	4.20	21.6%	12.8%	184	+0.72	3.07	229	81
Javi Rivera R 2027 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP-	3.88	22.3%	7.9%	3.0%	.259	3.71	18.6%	9.0%	93	-0.17	2.72	229	81
Alejandro Rivera R 2024 · 3.30 FIP	19	SP-	3.30	24.1%	10.7%	1.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	116	81
Rico Garcia R 2028 · 3.21 FIP	23	SP-	3.21	18.8%	7.0%	1.5%	.316	3.82	19.8%	11.5%	296	+0.61	3.21	566	80
Eiberson Castellano R 2026 · 3.94 FIP	21	SW	3.94	21.8%	10.3%	2.5%	.266	3.93	22.0%	12.3%	189	-0.01	3.69	348	80
Logan Hofmann R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	21	SP-	4.21	22.1%	11.3%	2.8%	.239	6.50	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.29	4.21	129	80
Carson Rudd R 2027 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP-	3.43	25.4%	10.6%	2.1%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.81	3.43	242	80
Ricky Castro R 2029 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP-	3.93	20.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.287	4.58	19.4%	11.0%	140	+0.65	3.90	202	79
Brandon Bailey R 2027 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP-	3.37	24.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.290	4.39	21.2%	9.6%	215	+1.02	3.37	306	79
Sean Sullivan R 2026 · 4.82 FIP	21	SP-	4.82	19.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.298	4.56	17.0%	8.2%	243	-0.26	4.30	318	79
Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	18.8%	11.2%	3.0%	.295	5.39	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.83	4.56	137	78
Robert Colina R 2026 · 4.17 FIP	21	SP-	4.17	20.5%	10.8%	2.6%	.366	3.31	22.3%	15.2%	61	-0.86	3.25	266	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	46	24.8%	7.0%	1.06	3.82
Sergio Romo ('21)	7	50	26.3%	7.0%	1.20	3.70
Joe Smith ('22)	7	44	22.5%	6.4%	1.08	3.67
Joakim Soria ('21)	7	54	26.1%	7.8%	0.92	3.65
Nick Wittgren ('23)	8	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Héctor Rondón ('20)	6	53	25.3%	7.1%	1.19	3.48
Nick Vincent ('20)	6	45	22.7%	6.3%	1.13	3.71