Noah Schultz
P
Charlotte Knights
+0.6
WAR
Age 22
LHP
6'10" / 240 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.0 · 2030
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
xFIP3.94
SIERA4.19
K%22.0%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%10.8%
IP73
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2030
OFP—55
K†5555
FB+3.8 (51%)
CT (17%)
SI (23%)
CH-1.0 (9%)
SL-2.5 (24%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 10 | 10 | 27 | 104 | 38 | 6 | 3 | 27.0% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 1.33 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 20 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 23 | 23 | 88 | 358 | 115 | 24 | 3 | 25.6% | 7.5% | 1.2% | 2.24 | 2.53 | +2.7 |
| 2025 | 21 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 17 | 17 | 73 | 327 | 76 | 45 | 6 | 19.2% | 15.0% | 2.2% | 4.68 | 4.58 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 4 | 3 | 18 | 67 | 23 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.45 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 64 | 33 | 7 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 2.6% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 87 | 357 | 87 | 39 | 8 | 24.3% | 10.8% | 2.4% | 4.04 | 3.52 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 73 | 34 | 8 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 4.35 | 4.27 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 76 | 33 | 8 | 23.3% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 4.23 | 4.14 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 79 | 332 | 79 | 32 | 8 | 23.7% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 4.13 | 4.06 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 79 | 332 | 79 | 31 | 8 | 23.9% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 4.08 | 4.04 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 78 | 329 | 79 | 31 | 8 | 23.9% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 4.06 | 4.05 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 77 | 324 | 77 | 31 | 8 | 23.9% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 4.07 | 4.08 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 75 | 317 | 75 | 30 | 8 | 23.7% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.10 | 4.13 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 72 | 30 | 8 | 23.5% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.19 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 69 | 29 | 8 | 23.3% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.22 | 4.26 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 68 | 285 | 66 | 28 | 8 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.35 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 62 | 28 | 8 | 22.7% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.45 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 58 | 27 | 8 | 22.4% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.56 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 54 | 26 | 8 | 22.0% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 54 | 53 | 207 | 856 | 205 | 89 | 17 | 24.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | 3.00 | 3.47 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 51 | 200 | 828 | 198 | 86 | 16 | 24.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | 3.00 | 3.47 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Noah Schultz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.16 | 23.3% | 13.3% | 232 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Sam Weatherly L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 94 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2028 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 91 |
| Keyshawn Askew L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.31 | 25.6% | 12.2% | 1.5% | .274 | 3.81 | 20.7% | 5.5% | 196 | +0.50 | 3.31 | 262 | 90 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 89 |
| Quintin Torres-Costa L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.96 | 25.0% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .340 | 2.51 | 24.8% | 12.9% | 55 | -1.45 | 2.51 | 248 | 88 |
| Wesley Moore L 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.66 | 25.9% | 13.2% | 2.0% | .254 | 4.19 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 58 | +0.53 | 3.66 | 111 | 88 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 87 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 87 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 86 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.43 | 22.5% | 12.6% | 1.2% | .318 | 4.79 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 91 | +1.36 | 3.43 | 152 | 86 |
| Shane McCain L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.31 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .324 | 4.65 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.34 | 4.31 | 201 | 86 |
| Dante Biasi L 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.7% | .251 | 5.64 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +0.73 | 4.91 | 224 | 86 |
| Chazz Martinez L 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.77 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 1.7% | .361 | 3.47 | 20.6% | 7.7% | 125 | -0.30 | 3.15 | 189 | 85 |
| Andrew Walling L 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.20 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 2.2% | .272 | 3.66 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 95 | -0.54 | 3.14 | 151 | 85 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.26 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .265 | 3.49 | 23.3% | 12.8% | 147 | +0.23 | 2.88 | 206 | 85 |
| Chase Watkins L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.74 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 1.6% | .346 | 4.33 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.59 | 3.29 | 213 | 85 |
| Michael Johnson L 2028 · 3.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.88 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .260 | 4.75 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.88 | 256 | 85 |
| Evan Shawver L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.28 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 4.0% | 152 | +0.49 | 4.09 | 219 | 85 |
| Evan Lee L 2028 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .333 | 4.49 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 52 | +0.63 | 3.82 | 129 | 83 |
| Ryne Slack L 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.08 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .293 | 4.99 | 15.4% | 2.5% | 142 | +0.91 | 4.08 | 212 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2026
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.7M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $4M | +1.0 | $9M | +$5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $5M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $12M | $25M | +$13M | ||