Noah Schultz

P Chicago White Sox

Age 23 LHP 6'10" / 240 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.9 · 2029

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	23	23	88	2.24	1.75	32.1%	6.7%	—	K 25.6% · BB 7.5% · FIP 2.52
2025	21	MIX2 levels	17	17	73	4.68	3.94	23.2%	13.8%	—	K 19.1% · BB 14.6% · FIP 4.53
2026	22	MIX2 levels	30	24	119	4.24	3.98	22.6%	9.0%	2.0	K 21.4% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.10
2027PROJ	23	MLBCWS	11	11	59	4.48	4.46	23.0%	9.3%	0.6
2028PROJ88% MLB	24	MLBCWS	15	15	83	4.33	4.22	25.0%	8.7%	1.2
2029PROJ92% MLB	25	MLBCWS	15	15	90	4.18	4.08	26.1%	8.4%	1.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.750First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$4M2031Arb-2$6M2032Arb-3$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo61

K%40

xwOBA vs11

CompsT.J. Sikkema (age 24) · Anthony Veneziano (age 23) · Drew Parrish (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.48

FIP4.46

K%23.0%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%13.7%

Proj IP74

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$40M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6195.3

Whiff%

p1921.0%

p4020.7%

xwOBA vs

p110.358

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.750 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$9M	+$8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$9M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+1.6	$10M	+$7M
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+1.5	$9M	+$5M
2032	Arb-3	$9M	+1.3	$7M	+$2M
Totals		$21M		$47M	+$33M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	10	10	27	104	38	6	3	100%	2.7	27.0%	6.8%	20.2%	4.4%	1.33	4.07	—
2023	19	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	10	10	27	104	38	6	3	100%	2.7	36.5%	5.8%	30.8%	2.9%	1.33	2.40	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	88	358	115	24	3	100%	3.8	25.6%	7.5%	18.1%	1.1%	2.24	2.52	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	88	358	115	24	3	100%	3.8	25.6%	7.5%	18.1%	1.1%	2.24	2.52	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	88	358	115	24	3	100%	3.8	32.1%	6.7%	25.4%	0.8%	2.24	1.75	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	73	327	76	45	6	100%	4.3	19.1%	14.6%	4.5%	2.2%	4.68	4.53	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	73	327	76	45	6	100%	4.3	19.1%	14.6%	4.5%	2.2%	4.68	4.53	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	73	327	76	45	6	100%	4.3	23.2%	13.8%	9.5%	1.8%	4.68	3.94	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	24	119	491	111	44	15	80%	4.0	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	3.1%	4.24	4.10	+1.8
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	24	119	491	111	44	15	80%	4.0	21.4%	8.7%	12.7%	3.1%	4.24	4.10	+1.8
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	24	119	491	111	44	15	80%	4.0	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	3.1%	4.24	3.98	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	14	74	324	67	31	11	74%	3.9	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	3.4%	5.57	4.47	+0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CWS	11	11	59	249	57	23	8	100%	5.4	23.0%	9.3%	13.7%	3.2%	4.48	4.46	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	94	398	99	35	12	100%	5.5	25.0%	8.7%	16.2%	3.1%	4.30	4.19	+1.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	98	414	108	35	13	100%	5.8	26.1%	8.4%	17.6%	3.1%	4.15	4.05	+1.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	101	428	114	36	13	100%	6.0	26.6%	8.3%	18.3%	3.1%	4.06	3.99	+1.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	98	413	109	35	13	100%	6.1	26.5%	8.4%	18.1%	3.1%	4.05	4.03	+1.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	94	398	105	34	13	100%	5.9	26.4%	8.6%	17.8%	3.2%	4.09	4.12	+1.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	CWS	14	14	84	353	91	31	12	100%	6.0	25.8%	8.8%	17.0%	3.4%	4.20	4.28	+1.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	CWS	12	12	70	295	74	27	11	100%	5.8	25.1%	9.1%	16.0%	3.6%	4.37	4.49	+0.7
2035	31	MLB MLE	CWS	9	9	55	232	56	22	9	100%	6.1	24.3%	9.4%	14.9%	3.8%	4.58	4.72	+0.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	CWS	7	7	40	169	40	17	7	100%	5.7	23.5%	9.8%	13.7%	4.1%	4.82	4.97	+0.2
2037	33	MLB MLE	CWS	4	4	27	114	26	12	5	100%	6.7	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	4.3%	5.08	5.25	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	83	350	88	31	11	100%	5.5	25.0%	8.7%	16.2%	3.2%	4.33	4.22	+1.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	90	380	99	32	12	100%	6.0	26.1%	8.4%	17.6%	3.2%	4.18	4.08	+1.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	95	401	107	33	13	100%	5.9	26.6%	8.3%	18.3%	3.2%	4.09	4.02	+1.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	93	393	104	33	13	100%	5.8	26.5%	8.4%	18.1%	3.2%	4.08	4.06	+1.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	89	376	99	32	12	100%	5.9	26.4%	8.6%	17.8%	3.3%	4.12	4.15	+1.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	79	334	86	29	12	100%	6.1	25.8%	8.8%	17.0%	3.5%	4.23	4.31	+1.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	66	279	70	25	10	100%	6.0	25.1%	9.1%	16.0%	3.7%	4.40	4.52	+0.7
2035	31	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	52	220	53	21	9	100%	5.8	24.3%	9.4%	14.9%	3.9%	4.62	4.76	+0.4
2036	32	MLB CTX	CWS	6	6	38	160	38	16	7	100%	6.3	23.5%	9.8%	13.7%	4.1%	4.86	5.01	+0.2
2037	33	MLB CTX	CWS	4	4	26	110	25	11	5	100%	6.5	22.7%	10.3%	12.4%	4.4%	5.12	5.29	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		139	134	786	3328	836	295	114	96%	5.7	25.1%	8.9%	16.3%	3.4%	4.41	3.97	+13.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	847	213	75	29	96%	5.7	25.1%	8.9%	16.3%	3.4%	4.41	3.97	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		80	74	307	1280	287	124	31	92%	3.8	22.4%	9.7%	12.7%	2.4%	3.51	3.76	+10.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	48	200	833	187	81	20	92%	3.8	22.4%	9.7%	12.7%	2.4%	3.51	3.76	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 45 IPFIP 3.18 → 3.52 (+0.34)K% 26.3% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.35%	—	×0.860	22.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.78%	—	×0.900	7.01%
HR / BF /BF	2.40%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.63%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.18 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABirmingham Barons · 57 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.53 (+0.90)K% 23.2% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.20%	—	×0.810	18.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.40%	—	×1.100	15.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷0.784	×1.200	1.84%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 57).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 16 IPFIP 4.75 → 4.52 (−0.23)K% 23.4% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.38%	—	×0.860	20.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.69%	—	×0.900	10.52%
HR / BF /BF	3.90%	÷1.320	×1.100	3.25%

Result: FIP 4.75 → 4.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABirmingham Barons · 61 IPFIP 1.93 → 2.61 (+0.68)K% 29.4% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.44%	—	×0.810	23.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.85%	—	×1.100	7.54%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷0.935	×1.200	1.03%

Result: FIP 1.93 → 2.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 27 IPFIP 1.18 → 2.31 (+1.13)K% 38.2% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.18%	—	×0.770	29.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.36%	—	×1.150	7.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.91%	÷0.817	×1.250	1.39%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 63).

Result: FIP 1.18 → 2.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 27 IPFIP 2.33 → 4.07 (+1.74)K% 36.5% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.54%	—	×0.740	27.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.77%	—	×1.180	6.81%
HR / BF /BF	2.88%	÷0.861	×1.300	4.36%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).

Result: FIP 2.33 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noah Schultz (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.07	25.9%	17.4%	294	-0.39	—	—	—
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	87
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	84
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.90	16.7%	7.0%	354	+2.43	3.47	522	82
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	82
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	82
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.04	21.9%	8.9%	175	-0.58	3.79	332	82
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	81
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	81
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	81
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	80
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	80
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	80
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	79
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	79
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	78
Isaiah Coupet L 2024 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP-	3.52	23.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.363	6.24	10.4%	-6.7%	16	+2.72	3.52	102	78
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	78
Ben Brecht L 2021 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	17.3%	5.5%	3.8%	.237	4.44	21.1%	17.2%	43	+0.01	4.43	118	76
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	76
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	76	25.0%	8.9%	1.29	4.39
Joe Price ('80-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.5	82	23.3%*	8.8%*	1.49*	4.15*
Aurelio Lopez ('74-'87, 9 WAR*)	4.5	91	25.0%*	9.6%*	1.35*	3.83*
Cecilio Guante ('82-'90, 6 WAR*)	3.0	66	26.6%*	9.2%*	1.30*	3.85*
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Brett Cecil ('18)	3.8	76	20.7%	8.3%	1.14	4.29
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73