Noah Schultz — OGILVIE

Noah Schultz P Chicago White Sox

Age 22 LHP 6'10" / 240 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.8 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION76 act + 37 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110119vR 128

ERA4.24

FIP4.24

K%23.5%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 113 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5560

CTRL5050

CMD4050

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6195.3

Whiff%

p2221.3%

p3720.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.371

FB+3.8 (48%)

CT (20%)

SI (25%)

CH-1.0 (10%)

SL-2.5 (22%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.5	$2M	+$2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-1	$8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$14M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$21M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	19	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	10	10	27	104	38	6	3	100%	2.7	27.0%	6.8%	20.2%	5.2%	1.33	4.53	—
2023	19	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	10	10	27	104	38	6	3	100%	2.7	36.5%	5.8%	30.8%	2.9%	1.33	2.40	—
2024	20	MIX	2 levels	23	23	88	358	115	24	3	100%	3.8	25.6%	7.5%	18.1%	1.3%	2.24	2.61	—
2024	20	MIX	2 levels	23	23	88	358	115	24	3	100%	3.8	32.1%	6.7%	25.4%	0.8%	2.24	1.75	—
2025	21	MIX	2 levels	17	17	73	327	76	45	6	100%	4.3	19.2%	15.0%	4.2%	2.6%	4.68	4.78	—
2025	21	MIX	2 levels	17	17	73	327	76	45	6	100%	4.3	23.2%	13.8%	9.5%	1.8%	4.68	3.94	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	Chicago White Sox	17	16	76	319	81	37	11	94%	4.5	24.1%	11.7%	12.4%	3.5%	4.62	4.49	+0.4
ROS	22	MLB	CWS	7	7	37	156	37	19	5	100%	5.3	23.5%	11.9%	11.6%	2.9%	4.24	4.24	+0.1
ROS	22	MLB	CWS	7	7	37	156	37	19	5	100%	5.3	23.5%	11.9%	11.6%	3.0%	4.27	4.27	+0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB	CWS	—	—	113	475	118	56	16	—	—	24.8%	11.7%	13.1%	3.3%	4.50	4.41	+1.3
2026 FULL	22	MLB	CWS	—	—	90	380	118	56	16	—	—	31.0%	14.6%	16.3%	4.1%	5.66	4.60	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CWS	24	24	127	538	125	59	16	100%	5.3	23.2%	10.9%	12.3%	2.9%	4.59	4.48	+1.4
2028	24	MLB	CWS	28	28	157	661	160	67	19	100%	5.6	24.2%	10.1%	14.1%	2.9%	4.40	4.29	+2.0
2029	25	MLB	CWS	30	30	175	739	182	71	21	100%	5.8	24.7%	9.6%	15.1%	2.9%	4.26	4.18	+2.5
2030	26	MLB	CWS	29	29	175	739	184	70	21	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.5%	15.5%	2.9%	4.19	4.15	+2.6
2031	27	MLB	CWS	29	29	172	728	182	70	21	100%	5.9	24.9%	9.6%	15.4%	2.9%	4.19	4.18	+2.5
2032	28	MLB	CWS	28	28	167	706	175	69	21	100%	6.0	24.8%	9.7%	15.1%	3.0%	4.24	4.27	+2.2
2033	29	MLB	CWS	27	27	160	674	166	67	21	100%	5.9	24.6%	9.9%	14.6%	3.2%	4.33	4.40	+1.9
2034	30	MLB	CWS	25	25	150	634	154	65	21	100%	6.0	24.2%	10.2%	14.0%	3.4%	4.48	4.58	+1.4
2035	31	MLB	CWS	23	23	140	591	141	63	21	100%	6.1	23.8%	10.6%	13.2%	3.6%	4.66	4.78	+1.0
2036	32	MLB	CWS	22	22	130	547	128	60	21	100%	5.9	23.4%	11.0%	12.4%	3.8%	4.87	5.00	+0.6
2027	23	MLB	CWS	23	23	121	511	119	56	15	100%	5.3	23.2%	10.9%	12.3%	2.9%	4.62	4.51	+1.3
2028	24	MLB	CWS	27	27	149	629	152	63	18	100%	5.5	24.2%	10.1%	14.1%	2.9%	4.43	4.32	+1.9
2029	25	MLB	CWS	28	28	166	701	173	67	20	100%	5.9	24.7%	9.6%	15.1%	2.9%	4.29	4.21	+2.3
2030	26	MLB	CWS	28	28	166	701	175	67	20	100%	5.9	24.9%	9.5%	15.5%	2.9%	4.22	4.18	+2.4
2031	27	MLB	CWS	27	27	164	692	173	66	21	100%	6.1	24.9%	9.6%	15.4%	3.0%	4.22	4.21	+2.3
2032	28	MLB	CWS	26	26	159	671	167	65	21	100%	6.1	24.8%	9.7%	15.1%	3.1%	4.27	4.30	+2.0
2033	29	MLB	CWS	25	25	152	642	158	64	21	100%	6.1	24.6%	9.9%	14.6%	3.2%	4.36	4.43	+1.7
2034	30	MLB	CWS	24	24	143	604	146	62	21	100%	6.0	24.2%	10.2%	14.0%	3.4%	4.51	4.61	+1.3
2035	31	MLB	CWS	22	22	133	562	134	59	20	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.6%	13.2%	3.6%	4.69	4.81	+0.9
2036	32	MLB	CWS	20	20	123	519	121	57	20	100%	6.2	23.4%	11.0%	12.4%	3.9%	4.91	5.04	+0.5
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			270	270	1565	6616	1600	674	210	100%	5.8	24.2%	10.2%	14.0%	3.2%	4.46	4.09	+24.0
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	845	204	86	27	100%	5.8	24.2%	10.2%	14.0%	3.2%	4.46	4.09	+3.1
Career	—			67	66	264	1108	259	120	30	99%	3.9	23.4%	10.9%	12.5%	2.7%	3.51	3.97	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—			51	50	200	838	196	91	23	99%	3.9	23.4%	10.9%	12.5%	2.7%	3.51	3.97	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noah Schultz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	22.8%	12.1%	2.7%	—	4.30	24.1%	14.0%	459	-0.25	—	—	—
Mason Molina L 2026 · 4.28 FIP	22	SP	4.28	22.7%	12.6%	2.7%	.276	3.56	23.3%	13.3%	69	-0.72	3.56	165	93
Samy Natera Jr. L 2027 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.68	29.8%	14.8%	108	-1.49	1.94	191	88
Keegan Akin L 2026 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	20.2%	12.5%	2.4%	.303	4.26	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.04	2.54	743	87
Greg Farone L 2027 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP	4.26	20.3%	10.4%	2.8%	.301	6.14	17.6%	4.8%	71	+1.88	4.26	176	87
Rylan Kaufman L 2026 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.3%	12.1%	2.4%	.305	4.69	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.34	4.01	212	86
John Beller L 2026 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP	4.59	19.7%	14.1%	2.5%	.326	4.22	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.37	4.00	170	86
Evan Shawver L 2026 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	18.8%	10.6%	2.2%	.289	4.64	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.60	4.01	258	86
Cole Ragans L 2027 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP	5.15	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.38	26.8%	17.4%	445	-1.77	2.46	623	85
Sam Weatherly L 2026 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	24.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.28	3.86	189	85
Matt Wilkinson L 2026 · 4.82 FIP	22	SP	4.82	20.2%	11.6%	3.6%	.312	3.36	24.3%	14.4%	62	-1.46	3.17	284	85
Brandon Knarr L 2027 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.21	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.62	4.15	256	85
Joe Whitman L 2026 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP	3.90	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.53	21.0%	12.2%	199	-0.37	3.35	302	85
Max Fried L 2026 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP	4.91	19.5%	13.0%	3.3%	.301	3.79	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.12	2.56	1,397	85
Anthony Veneziano L 2027 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP	4.24	24.9%	10.8%	3.4%	.298	5.19	18.7%	8.0%	358	+0.95	4.24	501	84
Dylan Carmouche L 2026 · 4.37 FIP	22	SP	4.37	19.0%	11.6%	2.6%	.332	4.42	17.4%	9.6%	70	+0.05	4.37	192	84
Hayden Mullins L 2027 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP-	4.33	23.4%	12.4%	3.0%	.288	4.01	25.1%	10.7%	150	-0.32	3.72	239	83
Pete Hansen L 2027 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.1%	9.9%	2.7%	.283	3.84	18.1%	10.2%	325	-0.33	3.66	437	83
Tyler Schweitzer L 2026 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP	4.66	19.6%	11.3%	3.2%	.293	4.22	17.9%	9.5%	274	-0.44	3.87	381	83
Justin Sinibaldi L 2027 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	15.9%	11.1%	3.0%	.286	6.01	14.0%	3.4%	72	+1.22	4.79	163	82
Jonathan Santucci L 2026 · 3.56 FIP	22	SP	3.56	22.6%	9.6%	2.1%	.294	3.49	24.7%	11.4%	80	-0.07	3.49	198	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11	149	24.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.41
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Julio Teheran ('23)	7	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	7	148	22.1%	8.1%	1.24	3.92