Noah Schultz — OGILVIE

Noah Schultz P Chicago White Sox

Age 22 LHP 6'10" / 240 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.6 · 2030 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION110 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.05

FIP4.05

K%21.6%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD4550

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p1921.0%

p3720.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.364

FB+3.8 (49%)

CT (21%)

SI (26%)

CU (2%)

CH-1.0 (10%)

SL-2.5 (19%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$11M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$10M	+1.8	$11M	+$5M
2030	Arb-2	$17M	+1.9	$11M	+$0.1M
2031	Arb-3	$25M	+1.8	$10M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$28M		$51M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	10	10	27	104	38	6	3	100%	2.7	27.0%	6.8%	20.2%	4.4%	1.33	4.07	—
2023	19	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	10	10	27	104	38	6	3	100%	2.7	27.0%	6.8%	20.2%	4.4%	1.33	4.07	—
2023	19	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	10	10	27	104	38	6	3	100%	2.7	36.5%	5.8%	30.8%	2.9%	1.33	2.40	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	88	358	115	24	3	100%	3.8	25.6%	7.5%	18.1%	1.1%	2.24	2.52	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	88	358	115	24	3	100%	3.8	25.6%	7.5%	18.1%	1.1%	2.24	2.52	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	88	358	115	24	3	100%	3.8	32.1%	6.7%	25.4%	0.8%	2.24	1.75	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	73	327	76	45	6	100%	4.3	18.9%	14.6%	4.3%	2.2%	4.68	4.54	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	73	327	76	45	6	100%	4.3	18.9%	14.6%	4.3%	2.2%	4.68	4.54	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	73	327	76	45	6	100%	4.3	23.2%	13.8%	9.5%	1.8%	4.68	3.94	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	14	65	291	59	31	9	93%	4.4	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	3.1%	6.06	4.51	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	26	24	110	458	103	44	13	92%	4.2	20.9%	9.3%	11.5%	2.9%	4.42	4.11	+1.0
YTD	22	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	26	24	110	458	103	44	13	92%	4.2	20.9%	9.3%	11.5%	2.9%	4.42	4.11	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AAA RAW	CWS	11	10	45	167	44	13	4	91%	4.1	26.3%	7.8%	18.6%	2.4%	2.01	3.18	—
2026	22	MLB RAW	CWS	15	14	65	291	59	31	9	93%	4.4	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	3.1%	6.06	4.43	+0.4
SO FAR	22	MLB RAW	CWS	15	14	65	291	59	31	9	93%	4.4	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	3.1%	6.06	4.43	+0.4
ROS	22	MLB MLE	CWS	2	2	8	34	7	4	1	100%	4.1	21.6%	10.6%	11.0%	2.6%	4.05	4.05	+0.1
ROS	22	MLB CTX	CWS	2	2	8	34	7	4	1	100%	4.0	21.6%	10.6%	11.0%	2.7%	4.07	4.07	+0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	118	492	110	48	14	—	—	22.4%	9.7%	12.8%	2.8%	4.39	4.10	+1.1
FULL	22	MLB A+C	CWS	—	—	73	310	110	48	14	—	—	35.6%	15.4%	20.2%	4.5%	7.06	4.50	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CWS	27	27	146	615	143	62	17	100%	5.4	23.3%	10.1%	13.2%	2.7%	4.40	4.29	+1.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	CWS	31	31	175	739	181	70	20	100%	5.6	24.4%	9.4%	15.0%	2.7%	4.23	4.11	+1.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	CWS	31	31	179	757	190	69	21	100%	5.8	25.1%	9.1%	16.0%	2.7%	4.10	4.01	+1.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	CWS	30	30	179	757	193	68	21	100%	6.0	25.5%	9.0%	16.5%	2.7%	4.02	3.97	+2.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	CWS	30	30	179	757	193	69	21	100%	6.0	25.5%	9.1%	16.4%	2.8%	4.01	4.01	+1.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	CWS	30	30	179	757	192	70	22	100%	6.0	25.3%	9.2%	16.1%	2.9%	4.06	4.09	+1.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	CWS	29	29	171	722	181	68	22	100%	5.9	25.1%	9.5%	15.6%	3.0%	4.16	4.22	+1.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	CWS	27	27	161	679	168	66	22	100%	6.0	24.8%	9.8%	15.0%	3.2%	4.30	4.40	+0.9
2035	31	MLB MLE	CWS	25	25	150	633	154	64	22	100%	6.0	24.3%	10.1%	14.2%	3.5%	4.48	4.60	+0.5
2036	32	MLB MLE	CWS	23	23	139	586	140	62	22	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.5%	13.4%	3.7%	4.69	4.83	+0.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	127	537	126	59	21	100%	6.1	23.4%	11.0%	12.4%	4.0%	4.92	5.08	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	CWS	26	26	138	583	136	59	16	100%	5.3	23.3%	10.1%	13.2%	2.8%	4.43	4.32	+1.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	CWS	30	30	166	701	171	66	19	100%	5.5	24.4%	9.4%	15.0%	2.8%	4.26	4.14	+1.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	CWS	29	29	170	718	180	65	20	100%	5.9	25.1%	9.1%	16.0%	2.8%	4.13	4.04	+1.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	CWS	28	28	170	718	183	65	20	100%	6.1	25.5%	9.0%	16.5%	2.8%	4.05	4.00	+1.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	CWS	28	28	170	718	183	65	20	100%	6.1	25.5%	9.1%	16.4%	2.8%	4.04	4.04	+1.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	CWS	28	28	170	718	182	66	21	100%	6.1	25.3%	9.2%	16.1%	2.9%	4.09	4.12	+1.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	CWS	27	27	163	688	173	65	21	100%	6.0	25.1%	9.5%	15.6%	3.1%	4.19	4.25	+1.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	CWS	26	26	153	646	160	63	21	100%	5.9	24.8%	9.8%	15.0%	3.3%	4.33	4.43	+0.9
2035	31	MLB CTX	CWS	24	24	142	600	146	61	21	100%	5.9	24.3%	10.1%	14.2%	3.5%	4.51	4.63	+0.5
2036	32	MLB CTX	CWS	22	22	132	557	133	59	21	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.5%	13.4%	3.8%	4.73	4.87	+0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	CWS	20	20	121	511	120	56	21	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.0%	12.4%	4.1%	4.96	5.12	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		305	304	1770	7487	1834	725	232	100%	5.8	24.5%	9.7%	14.8%	3.1%	4.37	3.96	+19.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	207	82	26	100%	5.8	24.5%	9.7%	14.8%	3.1%	4.37	3.96	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		76	74	298	1247	277	124	29	97%	3.9	22.2%	10.0%	12.3%	2.3%	3.56	3.76	+13.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	50	200	836	186	83	19	97%	3.9	22.2%	10.0%	12.3%	2.3%	3.56	3.76	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noah Schultz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	22.7%	11.6%	2.6%	—	4.13	24.4%	14.8%	500	-0.31	—	—	—
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	88
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	88
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	86
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	85
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	85
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	85
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	85
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	84
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	83
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	83
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	82
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	82
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	82
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	82
Max Fried L 2016 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP	4.85	19.5%	13.0%	3.2%	.301	3.76	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.09	2.56	1,435	82
Brycen Mautz L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	22	SP	3.62	18.7%	11.6%	1.1%	.308	4.61	20.1%	9.7%	322	+0.99	3.62	426	81
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	81
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	81
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	81
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.3	156	24.6%	9.7%	1.17	4.28
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17