Ivan Luciano

C Visalia Rawhide
Age 20 L/R 5'10" / 185 lbs A HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP40OGV rank#210ETA2028MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202518ROKARI166.275/.410/.3822166—.200/.304/.286
202619A+/AARI428.266/.381/.44412590—.226/.314/.368
2027PROJMLE20MLBARI538.232/.312/.368127930.7
2028PROJ43% MLB21MLBARI161.243/.322/.39042970.5
2029PROJ61% MLB22MLBARI255.246/.325/.398631001.0
Next 3 projected WAR 2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$5M2034Arb-2$8M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
wRC+75
wOBA74
ISO67
BB%52
Whiff%37
Chase%36
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 25, comp-based) · star 7% · didn't stick 70%
CompsMoisés Ballesteros (age 19) · Daniel Robertson (age 20) · Taylor Green (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA
wRC+†93
AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .309 / .365
PA210
HR5
K%23
BB%9
ISO135
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: -0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: -1.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +3.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+4POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.70+0.7WAR
0.01.02.00.51.01.31.41.51.41.41.227282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$52M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.3$8M+$8M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.4$8M+$8M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.5$8M+$8M
2033Arb-1$5M+1.4$7M+$5M
2034Arb-2$8M+1.4$7M+$3M
2035Arb-3$10M+1.2$5M+$0.7M
Totals $25M $44M +$31M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202518 ROKACL D-backs — 166131 36612 28312 10 275410382792 107330 1917 355 66 — — — — — —
202619 A+Hillsboro Hops — 5143 12501 6151 00 279380465845 186407 2912 370 81 — — — — — —
202619 AVisalia Rawhide — 377311 8218211 54755 52 264381441822 177307 2014 363 91 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202518 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 166140 28412 19472 10 200304286590 86257 2811 266 66 — — — — — —
202619 A+ MLEHillsboro Hops — 5145 10401 4201 00 222300378678 156369 398 288 81 — — — — — —
202619 A MLEVisalia Rawhide — 377327 741529 381025 52 226316367683 141286 2710 302 91 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 166140 28412 19472 10 200304286590 86271 2811 266 66 — — — — — —
202518 ROK RAWACL D-backs — 166131 36612 28312 10 275410382792 107330 1917 355 66 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE2 teams — 428371 8519210 431226 52 229319372691 143306 2910 300 89 — — — — — —
202619 A RAW2 teams — 428354 9423212 60906 52 266381444824 178318 2114 364 89 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 166144 28412 19472 10 194304278582 83257 2811 266 66 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE2 teams — 428376 8519210 431226 52 226319367686 141296 2910 300 89 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202518 ROK MLEACL D-backs — 166144 28412 19472 10 194304278582 83257 2811 266 66 — — — — — —
202619 A MLE2 teams — 428376 8519210 431226 52 226319367686 141296 2910 300 89 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLEARI 0% 538478 11123312 491236 72 232312368679 135285 239 305 93 -5 +1 -2 +10 +12 0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLEARI 43% 374333 781629 34844 51 236316379695 143286 229 312 97 -1 +1 -2 +7 +8 1.3
202922 MLB MLEARI 61% 419372 8918211 39935 51 239320387707 148287 229 316 100 +0 +1 -1 +7 +9 1.6
203023 MLB MLEARI 68% 445396 9519212 41975 61 241322393715 152288 229 319 102 +1 +1 -1 +8 +10 1.9
203124 MLB MLEARI 70% 445396 9519212 41975 51 243323398721 154289 229 322 104 +2 +1 -0 +8 +10 2.0
203225 MLB MLEARI 70% 445396 9619213 41975 51 244324399723 156289 229 322 104 +2 +1 -0 +8 +10 2.1
203326 MLB MLEARI 71% 445395 9619213 42975 51 243323399723 156289 229 322 104 +2 +1 -0 +8 +10 2.1
203427 MLB MLEARI 69% 445395 9519212 42975 51 242322396719 154288 229 321 103 +2 +1 -0 +8 +10 2.0
203528 MLB MLEARI 69% 445395 9519212 42985 41 240320391712 151287 229 318 101 +1 +0 -1 +8 +10 1.8
203629 MLB MLEARI 67% 445396 9419212 411005 31 238317385702 147286 229 314 99 -1 +0 -2 +8 +10 1.6
203730 MLB MLEARI 66% 445396 9319211 411015 32 235314377691 142284 239 310 96 -2 -0 -2 +8 +10 1.3
203831 MLB MLEARI 65% 426380 8717210 39984 26 230309367676 137281 239 303 92 -4 -2 -3 +8 +9 0.8
203932 MLB MLEARI 65% 407363 811619 37964 28 225302354656 129277 249 296 86 -7 -3 -4 +7 +9 0.3
204033 MLB MLEARI 70% 387347 741418 34933 39 218295338633 120271 249 286 80 -9 -3 -4 +7 +8 -0.1
202821 MLB CTXARI 43% 161143 35814 15362 21 243322390712 147297 229 318 97 -1 +0 -1 +3 +3 0.5
202922 MLB CTXARI 61% 255226 551226 24563 31 246325398723 152298 229 323 100 +0 +0 -1 +5 +6 1.0
203023 MLB CTXARI 68% 303268 671528 28664 41 248328404731 156299 229 326 102 +1 +0 -0 +5 +7 1.3
203124 MLB CTXARI 70% 310274 681528 29674 41 250329408737 158300 229 328 104 +1 +0 -0 +6 +7 1.4
203225 MLB CTXARI 70% 313277 691528 29684 41 250329410739 159300 229 329 104 +2 +0 -0 +6 +7 1.5
203326 MLB CTXARI 71% 314278 691528 29684 31 250329409738 159300 229 329 104 +2 +0 -0 +6 +7 1.4
203427 MLB CTXARI 69% 309273 681528 29684 31 249328406735 158299 229 327 103 +1 +0 -0 +6 +7 1.4
203528 MLB CTXARI 69% 306271 681528 29683 31 247326401728 155298 229 324 101 +0 +0 -1 +5 +7 1.2
203629 MLB CTXARI 67% 297264 641427 28673 21 244323395718 151296 239 320 99 -0 +0 -1 +5 +6 1.0
203730 MLB CTXARI 66% 293261 631427 27673 21 241319387706 146294 239 316 96 -2 +0 -1 +5 +6 0.9
203831 MLB CTXARI 65% 278248 581316 25643 14 236314376690 140291 239 309 92 -3 -1 -2 +5 +6 0.5
203932 MLB CTXARI 65% 264236 551216 24622 25 230308363671 132286 239 301 86 -4 -2 -2 +5 +6 0.2
204033 MLB CTXARI 70% 272244 531115 24662 26 223300347647 124281 249 292 80 -7 -2 -3 +5 +6 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 36753263 7921742289 34082341 3525 243322391713 149297 229 319 96 -9 -3 -13 +66 +80 12.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650577 14131416 601467 64 244322395718 151299 229 319 96 -2 -1 -2 +12 +14 2.2
Career— MLE — 63775658 132526528161 595146570 6237 234315376691 142286 239 311 96 -16 -3 -21 +103 +125 19.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650577 13527316 611497 64 234315374690 140286 239 311 96 -2 -0 -2 +12 +14 2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AVisalia Rawhide · 377 PAwOBA .359 → .302 (−58)K% 19.9% → 27.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.89%÷1.000×1.360——27.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.32%÷1.000×0.690—×1.03010.18%
HBP% /PA1.33%—×0.780—×1.0301.07%
Singles /BIP21.61%÷1.000×0.920×1.016×1.03020.80%
Doubles /BIP7.63%÷1.000×0.830×1.016×1.0306.62%
Triples /BIP0.85%÷1.000×0.910×1.016×1.0300.81%
Home runs /BIP4.66%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0303.84%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .359 → .302; ISO .177 → .148; BABIP .307 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 51 PAwOBA .360 → .288 (−72)K% 29.4% → 39.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.41%÷1.000×1.350——39.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.76%÷1.000×0.710—×1.0428.70%
HBP% /PA1.96%—×0.810—×1.0421.65%
Singles /BIP21.43%÷1.000×0.910—×1.04220.32%
Doubles /BIP17.86%÷1.000×0.830—×1.04215.44%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.820—×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP3.57%÷1.000×0.830—×1.0423.09%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .360 → .288; ISO .186 → .146; BABIP .407 → .369. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL D-backs · 166 PAwOBA .358 → .266 (−92)K% 18.7% → 28.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.67%÷0.952×1.440——28.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.87%÷0.942×0.620—×1.00811.18%
HBP% /PA1.20%—×0.720—×1.0080.87%
Singles /BIP27.00%÷1.030×0.820×0.981×1.00821.25%
Doubles /BIP6.00%÷0.945×0.720×0.981×1.0084.52%
Triples /BIP1.00%÷0.939×0.720×0.981×1.0080.76%
Home runs /BIP2.00%÷0.862×0.780—×1.0081.82%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 106, 2B 89, 3B 88, K 90, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .358 → .266; ISO .107 → .087; BABIP .330 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).