Ivan Luciano — OGILVIE

Ivan LucianoC Visalia Rawhide

Age 19 L/R 5'10" / 185 lbs A HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION428 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†94

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP296

ISO138

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$98M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED35

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.0	$12M	+$11M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.1	$12M	+$11M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.1	$11M	+$10M
2033	Arb-1	$6M	+2.1	$10M	+$7M
2034	Arb-2	$10M	+2.1	$9M	+$5M
2035	Arb-3	$14M	+2.0	$8M	+$3M
Totals		$33M		$61M	+$47M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	166	131	36	6	1	2	28	31	2	1	0	275	410	382	792	107	330	19	17	355	126	+5	+0	—	—	+4	0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	166	141	28	4	1	2	18	47	2	1	0	199	298	284	582	85	255	28	11	264	65	-7	+0	—	—	+4	-0.3
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	166	141	28	4	1	2	18	47	2	1	0	199	298	284	582	85	268	28	11	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	—	166	131	36	6	1	2	28	31	2	1	0	275	410	382	792	107	330	19	17	355	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	166	145	28	4	1	2	18	47	2	1	0	193	298	276	574	83	255	28	11	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	166	145	28	4	1	2	18	47	2	1	0	193	298	276	574	83	255	28	11	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	A MLE	ARI	—	428	372	83	18	2	11	42	122	6	5	2	223	312	371	683	148	294	29	10	296	86	-7	+0	+0	+8	+9	1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A RAW	ARI	—	377	311	82	18	2	11	54	75	5	5	2	264	381	441	822	177	307	20	14	363	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	A+ RAW	ARI	—	51	43	12	5	0	1	6	15	1	0	0	279	380	465	845	186	407	29	12	370	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	A MLE	ARI	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		290	22	11	307	94	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	19	A MLE	ARI	—	437	380	84	18	2	11	43	124	6	5	2	221	310	366	676	145	291	28	10	296	86	-7	+0	-0	+8	+9	1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	ARI	48%	462	410	96	20	2	12	44	113	5	5	1	234	316	380	696	146	291	24	10	311	97	-2	+1	-0	+8	+10	1.7
2028	21	MLB MLE	ARI	68%	499	442	104	21	2	14	48	119	6	5	2	235	319	387	705	152	292	24	10	318	101	+1	+0	-0	+9	+11	2.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	ARI	76%	520	459	109	22	2	15	50	122	6	6	2	237	320	392	713	155	292	23	10	322	104	+3	+0	-1	+9	+11	2.4
2030	23	MLB MLE	ARI	80%	520	459	112	23	2	16	50	121	6	6	2	244	326	407	734	163	293	23	10	326	107	+4	+0	-1	+9	+11	2.5
2031	24	MLB MLE	ARI	79%	520	457	112	23	2	16	51	120	7	6	2	245	330	409	739	164	294	23	10	328	108	+5	+0	-1	+9	+11	2.6
2032	25	MLB MLE	ARI	79%	520	457	112	23	2	16	51	119	7	6	2	245	330	409	739	164	294	23	10	330	109	+6	+0	-1	+9	+11	2.7
2033	26	MLB MLE	ARI	79%	520	457	112	23	2	16	51	119	7	6	2	245	330	409	739	164	294	23	10	330	110	+6	+0	-1	+9	+11	2.7
2034	27	MLB MLE	ARI	78%	520	456	112	23	2	16	52	119	7	6	2	246	332	410	742	164	293	23	10	330	110	+6	+0	-1	+9	+11	2.7
2035	28	MLB MLE	ARI	77%	520	456	110	22	2	16	52	120	7	5	2	241	328	404	732	162	293	23	10	329	109	+5	+0	-1	+9	+11	2.6
2036	29	MLB MLE	ARI	75%	520	455	110	22	2	16	53	121	7	5	2	242	330	404	734	163	292	23	10	327	108	+5	+0	-2	+9	+11	2.4
2037	30	MLB MLE	ARI	74%	520	456	110	22	2	16	53	123	6	5	2	241	328	404	732	162	291	24	10	324	106	+4	+0	-3	+9	+11	2.2
2038	31	MLB MLE	ARI	73%	504	442	105	21	2	15	51	120	6	5	1	238	325	396	721	158	288	24	10	320	103	+2	+1	-3	+9	+11	1.9
2039	32	MLB MLE	ARI	72%	489	431	100	20	2	14	49	119	6	4	1	232	319	385	704	153	285	24	10	315	99	-1	+0	-4	+9	+11	1.5
2040	33	MLB MLE	ARI	79%	455	401	90	17	2	12	46	113	5	4	1	224	312	367	679	142	280	25	10	307	94	-3	+0	-5	+8	+10	1.1
2041	34	MLB MLE	ARI	74%	399	351	76	14	1	10	40	101	5	3	1	217	306	348	653	131	274	25	10	298	88	-6	+0	-5	+7	+9	0.5
2042	35	MLB MLE	ARI	70%	337	297	62	11	1	8	33	88	4	2	1	209	296	333	630	125	267	26	10	288	81	-8	+0	-6	+6	+7	-0.0
2027	20	MLB CTX	ARI	48%	223	197	46	10	1	5	21	55	3	2	1	234	317	371	687	137	297	25	9	305	97	-1	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.8
2028	21	MLB CTX	ARI	68%	340	300	73	16	2	9	33	81	4	4	1	243	326	400	726	157	298	24	10	311	101	+0	+0	-0	+6	+7	1.4
2029	22	MLB CTX	ARI	76%	397	351	85	18	2	11	38	93	5	4	1	242	325	399	724	157	299	23	10	316	104	+2	+0	-0	+7	+9	1.8
2030	23	MLB CTX	ARI	80%	414	366	90	19	2	12	40	96	5	4	1	246	328	407	736	161	299	23	10	319	107	+3	+0	-0	+7	+9	2.0
2031	24	MLB CTX	ARI	79%	413	365	90	19	2	12	40	95	5	4	1	247	329	408	737	162	300	23	10	321	108	+4	+0	-0	+7	+9	2.1
2032	25	MLB CTX	ARI	79%	413	364	90	19	2	12	41	95	5	4	1	247	332	409	741	162	300	23	10	322	109	+5	+0	-0	+7	+9	2.1
2033	26	MLB CTX	ARI	79%	413	364	90	19	2	12	41	95	5	4	1	247	332	409	741	162	300	23	10	323	110	+5	+0	-0	+7	+9	2.1
2034	27	MLB CTX	ARI	78%	404	356	88	19	2	12	40	93	5	4	1	247	332	413	745	166	300	23	10	323	110	+5	+0	-0	+7	+9	2.1
2035	28	MLB CTX	ARI	77%	400	352	86	18	2	12	40	92	5	4	1	244	330	409	739	165	299	23	10	322	109	+4	+0	-1	+7	+9	2.0
2036	29	MLB CTX	ARI	75%	389	342	84	18	2	11	39	91	5	4	1	246	332	406	738	161	298	23	10	320	108	+4	+0	-1	+7	+8	1.8
2037	30	MLB CTX	ARI	74%	383	336	82	17	2	11	39	90	5	4	1	244	332	405	736	161	297	23	10	317	106	+3	+0	-2	+7	+8	1.7
2038	31	MLB CTX	ARI	73%	367	322	77	16	2	10	37	88	5	3	1	239	327	394	721	155	294	24	10	313	103	+1	+0	-2	+7	+8	1.4
2039	32	MLB CTX	ARI	72%	354	311	72	15	1	9	36	86	4	3	1	232	319	373	692	141	291	24	10	308	99	-0	+0	-3	+6	+8	1.1
2040	33	MLB CTX	ARI	79%	358	315	72	15	1	9	36	89	4	3	1	229	315	368	684	140	286	25	10	301	94	-2	+0	-4	+6	+8	0.8
2041	34	MLB CTX	ARI	74%	296	261	57	11	1	7	30	75	3	2	1	218	306	349	655	130	279	25	10	292	88	-4	+0	-4	+5	+6	0.4
2042	35	MLB CTX	ARI	70%	235	207	44	8	1	5	23	62	3	2	1	213	300	333	634	121	272	26	10	281	81	-5	+0	-4	+4	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5799	5109	1226	257	27	159	574	1376	71	55	16	240	325	394	719	154	296	24	10	314	102	+22	+5	-24	+104	+126	23.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	138	29	3	18	64	154	8	6	2	241	326	396	722	155	297	24	10	314	102	+2	+1	-3	+12	+14	2.6
Career	—	MLE		—	8000	7035	1661	331	31	230	793	1906	99	80	26	236	322	390	712	154	289	24	10	319	102	+27	+5	-33	+140	+170	31.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	136	27	3	19	64	155	8	6	2	238	323	395	718	157	291	24	10	319	102	+2	+0	-3	+12	+14	2.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	11.1	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
/162	664	17	8	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
#2Stephen Drewlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,917 PA	7.4	4,917	123	41	252	318	423	+48	+35	26.3	25.1
/162	664	17	6	+6.5	+4.7	3.5	pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	9.1	6,040	175	61	239	320	395	+99	+0	30.0	23.3
/162	664	19	7	+10.9	+0.0	3.3	pk7: 16
#3Kurt Suzukilast yr '22 career totals — 16 seasons, 6,163 PA	9.3	6,163	143	20	255	314	388	+110	-35	22.7	20.5
/162	664	15	2	+11.9	-3.8	2.4	pk7: 18
#4Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#5John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#6Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ivan Luciano (OGILVIE)	19	30→50	25→42	40→35	40	228/310/368	140	290	6	3	25%	9%	94	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	42→52	47→50	45→40	47	215/281/345	130	270	15	5	26%	8%	77	-0.3	241/299/370	129	293	14	4	22%	7%	89	+0.5	255/314/382	127	304	14	3	20%	7%	96	+0.9
✕Randy Florentino 2019 · A	19	46	45→50	45	51	220/308/355	135	308	10	8	30%	11%	89	+0.5	191/267/284	93	292	7	5	34%	9%	57	-1.8	188/237/266	78	247	8	4	27%	6%	40	-0.9
✕Luis Alvarez 2009 · A	19	47	43→45	44→45	48	231/306/343	112	272	11	5	19%	7%	86	+0.3	224/289/325	101	280	9	6	22%	6%	76	-0.4	212/264/322	110	252	12	1	21%	4%	62	-0.3
●J.P. Crawford 2015 · A	20	52→58	41→45	46→50	51	249/316/346	97	301	9	15	20%	9%	90	+0.6	231/301/326	95	276	7	10	18%	9%	79	-0.2	261/353/385	124	305	11	2	17%	11%	110	+2.2
✕Victor Ortega 2023 · A	19	48	38→45	43→45	50	224/305/303	79	298	4	6	24%	9%	76	-0.4	218/318/280	62	282	2	7	20%	12%	76	-0.4	223/337/308	85	295	4	3	22%	13%	89	+0.2
✕Bryant Betancourt 2023 · A	19	46→44	47→45	38→45	52	232/305/371	140	261	15	3	18%	9%	92	+0.7	203/264/294	91	260	9	6	24%	7%	59	-1.7	201/254/318	117	243	14	8	24%	6%	58	-1.1
✕Victor Heredia 2019 · A	19	47	44→50	42→30	39	232/274/353	122	292	11	4	25%	4%	76	-0.4	213/267/301	88	291	7	5	28%	6%	61	-1.5	176/240/214	38	249	3	2	28%	6%	30	-1.0
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	50→60	41→50	49→50	58	237/329/342	104	299	8	10	22%	12%	94	+0.9	248/333/382	134	332	12	14	26%	11%	104	+1.6	244/329/380	136	317	13	15	25%	11%	100	+1.3
●Taylor Green 2008 · A	21	49→56	44→50	35→30	48	242/300/363	121	287	11	2	20%	7%	88	+0.4	243/302/365	122	279	13	3	17%	7%	89	+0.5	245/303/383	138	278	14	0	17%	7%	93	+0.6
✕Bryan Anderson 2007 · A	20	51→57	40→45	41→30	45	245/296/345	100	307	7	5	22%	6%	82	-0.0	250/295/339	89	320	7	3	23%	6%	80	-0.2	253/297/338	84	324	7	2	23%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	48→46	42→50	44→50	46	226/320/334	108	300	8	7	26%	8%	90	+0.6	212/310/340	128	285	12	8	28%	8%	88	+0.4	217/303/361	144	274	17	12	26%	7%	88	+0.4
✕Travis Denker 2006 · A	20	46→52	51→50	37→45	50	235/310/393	158	290	19	4	26%	9%	99	+1.3	228/303/363	135	273	15	4	21%	9%	89	+0.5	229/306/370	141	260	15	0	18%	8%	92	+0.4
●Nolan Gorman 2019 · A	19	43	54→60	38→45	41	219/282/393	174	319	23	4	37%	8%	88	+0.5	203/256/343	140	302	16	4	36%	6%	68	-1.0	216/289/434	218	283	32	7	35%	9%	100	+1.1
●Edgar Quero 2022 · A	19	44→54	44→50	48→40	45	201/299/321	121	330	10	6	38%	10%	80	-0.2	237/326/378	141	300	15	5	24%	10%	102	+1.5	240/328/378	138	294	15	4	22%	9%	100	+1.0
✕Cole Young 2023 · A	20	50→51	46→45	49→50	47	248/302/374	126	296	14	11	21%	7%	91	+0.7	233/316/354	121	279	10	13	19%	9%	92	+0.7	238/315/361	123	274	12	9	17%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2017 · A	19	51→44	42→50	40→45	49	245/295/346	101	262	10	5	11%	6%	82	-0.0	235/276/361	126	277	13	6	20%	4%	78	-0.3	225/263/372	146	262	18	5	22%	3%	75	-0.4
✕Cam Collier 2023 · A	18	48→42	45	43→40	46	235/305/360	125	315	13	6	28%	8%	89	+0.5	208/288/307	99	310	9	3	33%	9%	72	-0.7	204/288/299	95	305	9	2	33%	9%	67	-0.8
✕Ronny Hernandez 2023 · A	18	41→51	46→40	48→30	46	210/280/342	132	269	14	5	27%	8%	76	-0.4	221/290/299	78	301	5	3	26%	8%	70	-0.9	227/300/318	90	289	10	1	23%	9%	75	-0.3
✕Daniel Robertson 2015 · A	21	51→54	44→45	38→40	48	246/312/362	116	301	11	3	21%	7%	93	+0.8	236/307/338	102	302	7	4	23%	7%	85	+0.2	232/336/343	111	304	11	4	25%	11%	96	+0.6
✕Adael Amador 2023 · A	20	51→54	46→50	46→55	55	252/334/383	131	290	14	14	18%	10%	105	+1.7	229/302/359	130	266	15	21	19%	9%	88	+0.4	216/294/338	122	249	13	22	19%	9%	78	-0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps