Ivan Luciano — OGILVIE

Ivan LucianoC Visalia Rawhide

Age 19 L/R 5'10" / 185 lbs A HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION296 act + 197 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†83

AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .297 / .342

PA197

HR4

K%24

BB%9

BABIP273

ISO125

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED35

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.4	$14M	+$14M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.5	$14M	+$13M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.6	$13M	+$13M
2033	Arb-1	$5M	+2.6	$12M	+$10M
2034	Arb-2	$8M	+2.6	$11M	+$8M
2035	Arb-3	$12M	+2.4	$10M	+$5M
Totals		$28M		$74M	+$62M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	166	139	28	5	1	2	20	49	2	1	0	201	311	295	606	94	280	30	12	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	166	131	36	6	1	2	28	31	2	1	0	275	410	382	792	107	330	19	17	355	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	A	ARI	—	296	257	53	12	2	6	30	78	4	4	1	206	299	339	637	132	266	26	10	284	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
YTD	19	A	ARI	—	296	244	60	15	2	7	43	58	4	4	1	246	368	410	778	164	290	20	15	347	123	+8	+0	+0	+5	+8	2.2
ROS	19	A	ARI	0%	197	175	38	8	1	4	18	48	2	3	1	217	297	342	639	125	278	24	9	294	83	-4	+0	-0	+4	+6	0.6
ROS	19	MLB	ARI	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		280	—	—	288	79	—	—	-0	+0	—	—
FULL	19	A	ARI	—	296	258	53	12	2	6	30	78	4	4	1	205	299	337	636	132	264	26	10	284	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
TOT	19	A	ARI	—	493	432	91	20	3	10	48	126	6	7	2	210	298	340	638	130	269	26	10	288	79	-12	+1	-0	+9	+14	1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	ARI	48%	520	460	103	21	3	11	49	126	6	6	1	224	307	354	661	130	282	24	9	301	88	-7	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.8
2028	21	MLB	ARI	68%	520	459	105	21	3	12	50	123	6	6	1	229	313	366	679	137	283	24	10	307	93	-4	+1	-1	+9	+15	2.1
2029	22	MLB	ARI	76%	520	458	107	22	3	13	50	121	7	6	1	234	318	380	698	146	284	23	10	311	97	-2	+1	-1	+9	+15	2.3
2030	23	MLB	ARI	80%	520	458	108	22	3	14	50	120	7	6	1	236	320	389	709	153	285	23	10	314	99	-1	+1	-1	+9	+15	2.4
2031	24	MLB	ARI	79%	520	458	109	22	3	14	50	119	7	6	1	238	322	391	713	153	286	23	10	317	100	+0	+1	-1	+9	+15	2.5
2032	25	MLB	ARI	79%	520	458	109	22	3	14	50	119	7	6	1	238	322	391	713	153	286	23	10	318	101	+1	+1	-1	+9	+15	2.6
2033	26	MLB	ARI	79%	520	457	109	22	3	14	51	119	7	6	1	239	324	392	716	153	286	23	10	318	102	+1	+1	-1	+9	+15	2.6
2034	27	MLB	ARI	78%	520	457	108	22	3	14	51	119	7	6	1	236	322	389	712	153	286	23	10	318	102	+1	+1	-1	+9	+15	2.6
2035	28	MLB	ARI	77%	520	456	108	22	3	14	52	120	7	5	1	237	324	390	715	154	285	23	10	317	101	+1	+1	-1	+9	+15	2.4
2036	29	MLB	ARI	75%	520	456	107	21	3	14	52	121	7	5	1	235	322	386	708	151	284	23	10	315	99	-0	+1	-2	+9	+15	2.3
2037	30	MLB	ARI	74%	520	457	105	21	3	13	52	122	6	5	1	230	317	374	691	144	283	23	10	312	97	-2	+1	-3	+9	+15	2.1
2038	31	MLB	ARI	73%	504	443	101	20	2	13	50	120	6	5	1	228	315	370	685	142	281	24	10	308	94	-3	+1	-3	+9	+14	1.8
2039	32	MLB	ARI	72%	489	431	96	19	2	12	49	118	6	4	1	223	311	360	670	137	277	24	10	303	90	-6	+0	-4	+9	+14	1.4
2040	33	MLB	ARI	79%	455	402	87	17	2	10	45	113	5	4	1	216	303	343	646	127	273	25	10	296	84	-8	+0	-5	+8	+13	0.9
2041	34	MLB	ARI	74%	399	352	75	14	2	9	39	101	5	3	1	213	301	341	641	128	267	25	10	287	78	-10	+0	-5	+7	+11	0.3
2042	35	MLB	ARI	70%	337	297	60	11	1	7	33	88	4	3	1	202	290	316	607	114	260	26	10	277	70	-11	+0	-6	+6	+10	-0.2
2043	36	MLB	ARI	61%	276	244	47	8	1	5	27	74	3	2	0	193	281	295	576	102	254	27	10	267	62	-12	+0	-7	+5	+8	-0.5
2027	20	MLB	ARI	48%	251	222	50	10	1	6	24	61	3	3	1	225	309	360	670	135	284	24	10	294	84	-5	+0	-0	+4	+7	0.7
2028	21	MLB	ARI	68%	354	313	73	15	2	9	34	84	4	4	1	233	316	380	696	147	286	24	10	301	88	-5	+0	-0	+6	+10	1.2
2029	22	MLB	ARI	76%	397	351	82	17	2	10	38	93	5	4	1	234	317	379	696	145	287	23	10	305	92	-4	+0	-0	+7	+11	1.5
2030	23	MLB	ARI	80%	414	366	87	18	2	11	40	96	5	4	1	238	321	388	709	150	288	23	10	308	94	-3	+0	-0	+7	+12	1.7
2031	24	MLB	ARI	79%	413	365	87	18	2	11	40	95	5	4	1	238	322	389	711	151	289	23	10	310	95	-2	+0	-0	+7	+12	1.7
2032	25	MLB	ARI	79%	413	365	87	18	2	11	40	94	5	4	1	238	322	389	711	151	289	23	10	311	96	-2	+0	-0	+7	+12	1.8
2033	26	MLB	ARI	79%	413	365	88	18	2	12	40	94	5	4	1	241	324	400	724	159	288	23	10	312	97	-2	+0	-0	+7	+12	1.8
2034	27	MLB	ARI	78%	404	356	84	17	2	11	40	93	5	4	1	236	322	388	709	152	288	23	10	312	97	-2	+0	-0	+7	+11	1.7
2035	28	MLB	ARI	77%	400	352	83	17	2	11	40	92	5	4	1	236	322	389	712	153	288	23	10	311	96	-2	+0	-1	+7	+11	1.6
2036	29	MLB	ARI	75%	389	342	81	16	2	11	39	91	5	4	1	237	324	392	716	155	287	23	10	309	94	-2	+0	-1	+7	+11	1.5
2037	30	MLB	ARI	74%	383	337	79	16	2	10	38	90	5	4	1	234	321	383	704	148	286	23	10	306	92	-3	+0	-2	+7	+11	1.3
2038	31	MLB	ARI	73%	367	323	74	15	2	9	37	87	4	3	1	229	316	372	687	142	283	24	10	302	89	-4	+0	-2	+7	+10	1.0
2039	32	MLB	ARI	72%	354	312	71	14	2	9	35	86	4	3	1	228	313	372	685	144	280	24	10	296	85	-6	+0	-3	+6	+10	0.8
2040	33	MLB	ARI	79%	358	315	69	13	2	8	36	89	4	3	1	219	307	349	656	130	275	25	10	290	80	-8	+0	-4	+6	+10	0.5
2041	34	MLB	ARI	74%	296	262	55	10	1	7	29	75	3	2	1	210	296	336	632	126	269	25	10	281	73	-9	+0	-4	+5	+8	0.1
2042	35	MLB	ARI	70%	235	207	43	8	1	5	23	61	3	2	0	208	296	329	625	121	262	26	10	271	66	-9	+0	-4	+4	+7	-0.2
2043	36	MLB	ARI	61%	167	147	29	5	1	3	16	45	2	1	0	197	285	306	591	109	256	27	10	260	58	-8	+0	-4	+3	+5	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	6008	5301	1222	245	30	154	589	1426	72	57	15	231	316	375	691	145	285	24	10	301	89	-76	+5	-28	+107	+170	18.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	133	27	3	17	64	154	8	6	2	232	318	378	696	146	286	24	10	301	89	-8	+0	-3	+12	+18	2.0
Career	—			—	8543	7517	1710	340	45	209	838	2040	107	88	17	227	314	368	682	141	282	24	10	306	92	-73	+11	-40	+153	+242	29.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	572	130	26	3	16	64	155	8	7	1	227	314	367	681	140	281	24	10	306	92	-6	+1	-3	+12	+18	2.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	166	131	36	6	1	2	28	31	2	1	0	275	410	382	792	107	330	19	17	355	130	+6	+0	—	—	+5	1.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Iannettalast yr '19 career totals — 14 seasons, 4,253 PA	14	4,253	141	11	230	345	406	+76	-30	23.7	21.5
	/162	664	22	2	230	345	406	+11.9	-4.6	3.7	pk7: 19
#2Kurt Suzukilast yr '22 career totals — 16 seasons, 6,163 PA	16	6,163	143	20	255	314	388	+110	-35	22.7	20.5
	/162	664	15	2	255	314	388	+11.9	-3.8	2.4	pk7: 18
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	13	6,250	156	63	229	311	372	+97	+0	24.1	18.9
	/162	664	17	7	229	311	372	+10.3	+0.0	2.6	pk7: 14
#3Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
	/162	664	21	6	256	308	421	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#4Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#5John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#5John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#6Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ivan Luciano (OGILVIE)	19	30→50	25→42	40→35	40	210/298/340	130	269	10	7	26%	10%	79	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	43→53	47→50	45→40	47	217/283/352	135	277	15	5	27%	8%	76	+0.1	243/301/378	135	296	16	4	23%	7%	91	+1.1	266/326/405	139	311	16	3	19%	8%	106	+1.6
✕Randy Florentino 2019 · A	19	46	45→50	45	51	220/308/355	135	308	10	8	30%	11%	88	+0.9	191/266/284	93	290	7	5	34%	9%	52	-1.6	183/233/258	75	242	8	4	27%	6%	29	-0.9
✕Luis Alvarez 2009 · A	19	47	43→45	44→45	48	231/306/343	112	272	11	5	19%	7%	85	+0.7	224/289/325	101	280	9	6	22%	6%	72	-0.2	209/262/317	108	250	12	1	21%	4%	55	-0.3
●Luis Campusano 2018 · A	19	43→53	41→50	41→30	44	213/267/308	95	273	10	4	25%	6%	58	-1.2	251/303/368	117	300	12	2	20%	6%	89	+0.9	264/328/432	168	297	22	1	19%	8%	113	+1.5
●Ryan McMahon 2014 · A	19	46→56	48→55	42→45	40	227/283/376	149	325	15	6	34%	7%	83	+0.6	217/273/363	146	324	14	6	35%	6%	76	+0.0	247/298/412	164	344	17	8	31%	6%	96	+1.3
✕Victor Heredia 2019 · A	19	47	44→50	42→30	39	232/274/353	122	292	11	4	25%	4%	72	-0.2	213/267/301	88	291	7	5	28%	6%	56	-1.3	176/240/214	38	249	3	2	28%	6%	21	-1.0
✕Jeffer Patino 2009 · A	20	49	39→45	41→45	49	231/298/323	92	280	5	6	19%	7%	75	-0.0	206/256/281	75	259	5	4	21%	6%	46	-2.0	182/221/238	56	229	5	2	22%	4%	17	-1.0
✕Bryant Betancourt 2023 · A	19	46→43	45	38→45	52	225/300/351	126	256	12	3	18%	9%	83	+0.6	202/263/289	87	262	8	6	25%	7%	52	-1.6	193/247/310	117	236	15	8	25%	6%	48	-1.1
✕Bryan Anderson 2007 · A	20	51→56	40→45	41→30	45	245/296/345	100	307	7	5	22%	6%	79	+0.3	249/295/341	92	320	7	3	23%	6%	77	+0.1	252/296/339	87	325	8	2	24%	5%	75	-0.0
✕Randel Alcantara 2016 · A	19	44	41→45	46→45	43	211/283/321	110	282	7	6	26%	6%	69	-0.4	197/255/304	107	263	9	6	27%	5%	53	-1.5	132/175/242	109	157	14	3	27%	3%	1	-1.4
●Taylor Green 2008 · A	21	49→56	44→50	35→30	48	242/300/363	121	287	11	2	20%	7%	86	+0.8	244/303/369	125	281	13	3	18%	7%	89	+1.0	248/306/390	142	280	14	0	17%	7%	95	+1.0
✕Manuel Joseph 2013 · A	19	46	41→45	44→50	45	221/274/319	97	271	8	8	21%	6%	63	-0.8	244/300/352	108	288	9	15	18%	6%	83	+0.6	263/321/381	118	302	10	21	15%	5%	101	+0.8
✕Amadeo Zazueta 2006 · A	20	45→55	45	40→50	44	223/268/355	132	261	12	5	20%	6%	71	-0.3	209/254/322	113	255	10	5	22%	5%	56	-1.3	282/313/378	96	307	8	10	11%	3%	91	+0.8
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	48→42	42→50	44→50	45	227/318/334	107	303	8	7	26%	7%	88	+0.9	214/310/343	129	287	12	8	28%	8%	88	+0.9	219/307/369	150	281	18	13	27%	8%	90	+0.9
●Josh Thole 2006 · A	19	46→56	37→40	47→45	53	218/297/291	73	256	5	5	16%	8%	66	-0.6	227/292/293	66	286	3	4	20%	7%	64	-0.8	281/343/378	97	316	5	4	12%	8%	106	+1.6
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	51→59	41→50	49→50	58	241/333/346	105	301	8	10	21%	12%	96	+1.5	249/334/387	138	332	12	14	26%	11%	107	+2.2	244/330/384	140	317	13	15	25%	11%	101	+1.8
●Mark Vientos 2019 · A	19	42→49	46→60	43→30	45	215/275/340	125	273	14	3	26%	7%	70	-0.3	206/250/349	143	284	18	2	33%	5%	62	-0.9	245/305/447	202	325	28	0	32%	7%	109	+2.0
✕Meibrys Viloria 2015 · A	18	45→47	40→45	46→40	48	218/285/316	97	280	7	5	24%	8%	68	-0.5	235/286/325	90	300	6	3	22%	6%	70	-0.3	247/290/366	119	318	11	2	25%	5%	79	+0.2
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2019 · A	20	45→49	41→45	46→55	51	216/301/314	97	294	9	7	28%	10%	74	-0.1	230/299/349	119	326	11	11	30%	9%	82	+0.5	228/302/349	121	326	10	15	31%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Francisco Herrera 2013 · A	19	47	42→45	44→30	49	230/294/334	104	267	9	5	18%	7%	76	+0.1	221/277/315	94	270	8	6	21%	6%	64	-0.8	208/255/286	78	243	9	5	18%	4%	43	-0.6