Seth Hernandez

P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.4 · 2032

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP60OGV rank#7ETA2028MLB%20%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	20	MIX2 levels	18	18	74	2.43	2.92	40.4%	10.6%	—	K 30.6% · BB 12.3% · FIP 4.44
2027PROJ	21	MLBPIT	4	4	19	3.80	3.80	29.4%	8.8%	0.4
2028PROJ70% MLB	22	MLBPIT	17	17	85	3.61	3.54	29.6%	8.1%	1.8
2029PROJ87% MLB	23	MLBPIT	24	24	127	3.53	3.44	29.8%	7.7%	2.8

Next 3 projected WAR 5.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$7M2032Arb-2$12M2033Arb-3$18M

Career WAR2.1 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 19, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 65%

CompsCade Horton (age 21) · Spencer Strider (age 22) · José De León (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA3.80

FIP3.80

K%29.4%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%20.6%

Proj IP95

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$104M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$13M	+$13M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.8	$21M	+$20M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.2	$24M	+$23M
2031	Arb-1	$7M	+3.3	$23M	+$19M
2032	Arb-2	$12M	+3.4	$23M	+$15M
2033	Arb-3	$18M	+3.2	$19M	+$10M
Totals		$40M		$123M	+$100M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	74	292	118	31	10	100%	4.1	30.6%	12.3%	18.3%	4.3%	2.43	4.44	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	74	292	118	31	10	100%	4.1	30.6%	12.3%	18.3%	4.3%	2.43	4.44	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	74	292	118	31	10	100%	4.1	40.4%	10.6%	29.8%	3.4%	2.43	2.92	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	PIT	4	4	19	80	24	7	2	100%	4.8	29.4%	8.8%	20.6%	3.1%	3.80	3.80	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	122	513	152	42	15	100%	5.1	29.6%	8.1%	21.5%	3.0%	3.73	3.66	+2.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	PIT	27	27	146	616	184	48	18	100%	5.4	29.8%	7.7%	22.1%	3.0%	3.65	3.56	+3.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	PIT	27	27	151	636	191	48	19	100%	5.6	30.0%	7.5%	22.5%	2.9%	3.57	3.50	+3.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	PIT	25	25	148	626	189	46	18	100%	5.9	30.2%	7.4%	22.9%	2.9%	3.51	3.46	+3.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	PIT	25	25	149	630	192	46	18	100%	6.0	30.4%	7.3%	23.1%	2.9%	3.47	3.44	+3.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	145	613	186	45	18	100%	6.0	30.4%	7.4%	23.0%	3.0%	3.47	3.48	+3.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	140	591	179	45	18	100%	6.1	30.3%	7.6%	22.8%	3.1%	3.52	3.56	+3.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	132	558	168	44	18	100%	6.0	30.1%	7.8%	22.3%	3.2%	3.62	3.69	+2.7
2036	30	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	122	513	153	42	18	100%	6.1	29.7%	8.1%	21.6%	3.4%	3.77	3.87	+2.2
2037	31	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	110	463	136	39	17	100%	6.1	29.3%	8.5%	20.9%	3.6%	3.95	4.07	+1.7
2038	32	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	97	409	118	36	16	100%	6.0	28.9%	8.8%	20.0%	3.9%	4.16	4.30	+1.3
2039	33	MLB MLE	PIT	14	14	84	353	100	33	15	100%	6.0	28.4%	9.3%	19.1%	4.2%	4.39	4.55	+0.8
2040	34	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	71	301	84	29	13	100%	5.9	27.8%	9.8%	18.0%	4.5%	4.65	4.82	+0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	PIT	17	17	85	359	106	29	10	100%	5.0	29.6%	8.1%	21.5%	2.8%	3.61	3.54	+1.8
2029	23	MLB CTX	PIT	24	24	127	536	160	41	15	100%	5.3	29.8%	7.7%	22.1%	2.7%	3.53	3.44	+2.8
2030	24	MLB CTX	PIT	25	25	138	583	175	44	16	100%	5.5	30.0%	7.5%	22.5%	2.7%	3.45	3.38	+3.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	PIT	24	24	139	587	177	43	16	100%	5.8	30.2%	7.4%	22.9%	2.7%	3.39	3.34	+3.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	PIT	24	24	142	600	183	44	16	100%	5.9	30.4%	7.3%	23.1%	2.7%	3.35	3.32	+3.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	PIT	23	23	138	583	177	43	16	100%	6.0	30.4%	7.4%	23.0%	2.7%	3.35	3.36	+3.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	PIT	22	22	133	562	170	43	16	100%	6.0	30.3%	7.6%	22.8%	2.8%	3.39	3.43	+3.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	PIT	21	21	125	528	159	41	16	100%	6.0	30.1%	7.8%	22.3%	3.0%	3.49	3.56	+2.6
2036	30	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	116	490	146	40	15	100%	6.1	29.7%	8.1%	21.6%	3.2%	3.63	3.73	+2.1
2037	31	MLB CTX	PIT	17	17	104	439	129	37	15	100%	6.1	29.3%	8.5%	20.9%	3.4%	3.80	3.92	+1.6
2038	32	MLB CTX	PIT	15	15	92	388	112	34	14	100%	6.1	28.9%	8.8%	20.0%	3.6%	4.00	4.14	+1.2
2039	33	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	80	338	96	31	13	100%	6.2	28.4%	9.3%	19.1%	3.9%	4.22	4.38	+0.8
2040	34	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	64	270	75	26	11	100%	5.8	27.8%	9.8%	18.0%	4.1%	4.47	4.64	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		254	254	1482	6257	1864	497	188	100%	5.8	29.8%	7.9%	21.8%	3.0%	3.60	3.24	+39.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	252	67	25	100%	5.8	29.8%	7.9%	21.8%	3.0%	3.60	3.24	+5.4
Career	—	MLE		18	18	74	292	89	36	13	100%	4.1	30.6%	12.3%	18.3%	4.3%	2.43	4.44	+31.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	49	200	789	242	97	34	100%	4.1	30.6%	12.3%	18.3%	4.3%	2.43	4.44	+3.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 46 IPFIP 4.00 → 5.53 (+1.53)K% 36.2% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.17%	—	×0.770	27.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.77%	—	×1.150	14.68%
HR / BF /BF	4.26%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.32%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.00 → 5.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ABradenton Marauders · 28 IPFIP 0.95 → 2.47 (+1.53)K% 48.1% → 35.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	48.08%	—	×0.740	35.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.73%	—	×1.180	7.94%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.50%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.95 → 2.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Seth Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	3.57	29.9%	22.1%	418	-0.23	—	—	—
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.59	21.9%	14.0%	181	+0.37	3.22	270	86
Spencer Strider R 2021 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP	3.37	30.7%	11.6%	2.5%	.298	2.16	37.4%	29.6%	318	-1.21	1.65	589	85
José De León R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.9%	8.6%	3.0%	.295	3.62	25.9%	17.9%	130	+0.12	3.24	445	83
Ryan Murphy R 2021 · 3.56 FIP	21	SP	3.56	29.4%	7.3%	3.7%	.279	4.53	20.9%	9.8%	181	+0.97	2.54	367	83
Gavin Stone R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	22	SP	3.15	27.3%	7.8%	2.5%	.385	3.59	22.9%	14.5%	394	+0.44	2.39	500	83
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	81
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	80
Tink Hence R 2024 · 2.64 FIP	21	SP	2.64	27.6%	8.9%	1.4%	.300	6.15	17.4%	1.0%	20	+3.51	2.07	248	79
Chase Hampton R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	26.1%	9.5%	3.5%	.296	7.55	16.7%	-0.5%	36	+3.51	4.04	142	77
Chase Silseth R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	22	SP	4.42	25.2%	9.3%	4.1%	.260	4.18	21.3%	9.7%	165	-0.24	3.23	337	76
Gavin Williams R 2022 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	26.2%	9.9%	2.4%	.238	3.87	25.1%	14.3%	398	+0.43	3.39	697	76
Nate Pearson R 2019 · 3.38 FIP	22	SP	3.38	24.8%	7.7%	2.5%	.235	4.72	27.5%	13.9%	76	+1.34	3.37	413	76
Cole Henry R 2021 · 2.96 FIP	22	SP	2.96	29.8%	7.8%	2.5%	.233	4.99	21.8%	7.7%	56	+2.03	2.96	186	76
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	75
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.27	25.0%	14.6%	148	+0.06	2.00	352	75
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	74
Nick Frasso R 2022 · 2.60 FIP	23	SP	2.60	27.2%	9.2%	1.1%	.265	3.80	19.6%	10.2%	170	+1.20	2.60	276	74
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	74
Grayson Rodriguez R 2021 · 2.70 FIP	21	SP	2.70	32.4%	7.5%	2.5%	.240	3.26	27.2%	19.1%	350	+0.56	1.93	665	74
Mason Black R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	22.3%	9.0%	2.9%	.297	4.62	21.2%	11.3%	364	+0.67	3.95	569	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.6	122	29.8%	8.0%	1.25	3.74
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Danny Salazar ('19)	3.0	118	27.7%	8.6%	1.14	3.82
James Paxton ('24)	4.8	95	25.3%	7.9%	1.05	3.77
Jose DeLeon ('83-'95, 22 WAR*)	9.5	146	25.8%*	10.4%*	1.01*	4.17*
Floyd Bannister ('77-'92, 28 WAR*)	11.9	159	24.7%*	8.2%*	1.37*	4.18*
Sid Fernandez ('83-'97, 31 WAR*)	9.3	144	28.9%*	9.2%*	1.33*	3.85*