Seth Hernandez — OGILVIE

Seth Hernandez P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 20 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.8 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA3.78

FIP3.78

K%28.6%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%20.0%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$94M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6065

CTRL5055

CMD4055

K†6570

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$14M	+$13M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.6	$17M	+$16M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.9	$19M	+$18M
2031	Arb-1	$9M	+3.1	$20M	+$14M
2032	Arb-2	$15M	+3.2	$19M	+$11M
2033	Arb-3	$22M	+3.1	$17M	+$6M
Totals		$49M		$105M	+$79M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	18	18	74	292	118	31	10	100%	4.1	30.6%	12.3%	18.3%	4.3%	2.43	4.44	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	18	18	74	292	118	31	10	100%	4.1	30.6%	12.3%	18.3%	4.3%	2.43	4.44	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	PIT	6	6	28	104	50	7	2	100%	4.7	48.1%	6.7%	41.3%	1.9%	0.96	0.95	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	PIT	12	12	46	188	68	24	8	100%	3.8	36.2%	12.8%	23.4%	4.3%	3.33	4.00	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	PIT	29	29	139	587	166	48	17	100%	4.8	28.3%	8.2%	20.1%	2.9%	3.77	3.73	+2.0
2028	22	MLB MLE	PIT	33	33	175	739	213	57	21	100%	5.3	28.8%	7.8%	21.1%	2.9%	3.68	3.60	+2.7
2029	23	MLB MLE	PIT	33	33	183	772	226	58	22	100%	5.5	29.3%	7.4%	21.8%	2.8%	3.58	3.50	+3.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	PIT	32	32	180	760	225	55	21	100%	5.6	29.7%	7.2%	22.4%	2.8%	3.49	3.42	+3.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	PIT	31	31	183	772	232	55	21	100%	5.9	30.1%	7.1%	23.0%	2.8%	3.42	3.37	+3.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	PIT	30	30	180	760	230	54	21	100%	6.0	30.3%	7.1%	23.2%	2.8%	3.37	3.34	+3.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	PIT	30	30	177	749	227	53	21	100%	5.9	30.3%	7.1%	23.1%	2.8%	3.38	3.38	+3.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	PIT	29	29	172	726	219	53	21	100%	5.9	30.1%	7.3%	22.9%	2.9%	3.43	3.47	+3.0
2035	29	MLB MLE	PIT	27	27	164	694	207	52	21	100%	6.1	29.9%	7.5%	22.4%	3.1%	3.53	3.60	+2.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	PIT	26	26	154	652	193	51	21	100%	5.9	29.6%	7.8%	21.7%	3.3%	3.68	3.77	+2.1
2037	31	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	144	608	177	50	21	100%	6.0	29.2%	8.2%	21.0%	3.5%	3.86	3.98	+1.6
2038	32	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	133	562	161	48	21	100%	6.1	28.7%	8.6%	20.1%	3.8%	4.06	4.20	+1.1
2039	33	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	122	516	146	47	21	100%	6.1	28.2%	9.0%	19.2%	4.0%	4.30	4.45	+0.6
2027	21	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	69	291	83	24	8	100%	4.9	28.3%	8.2%	20.1%	2.7%	3.65	3.61	+1.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	PIT	25	25	128	540	156	42	14	100%	5.1	28.8%	7.8%	21.1%	2.6%	3.56	3.48	+2.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	PIT	29	29	154	650	190	48	17	100%	5.3	29.3%	7.4%	21.8%	2.6%	3.46	3.38	+2.6
2030	24	MLB CTX	PIT	29	29	160	676	200	49	17	100%	5.5	29.7%	7.2%	22.4%	2.6%	3.37	3.30	+2.9
2031	25	MLB CTX	PIT	29	29	168	709	213	50	18	100%	5.8	30.1%	7.1%	23.0%	2.6%	3.31	3.26	+3.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	PIT	28	28	168	709	215	50	18	100%	6.0	30.3%	7.1%	23.2%	2.6%	3.26	3.23	+3.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	PIT	28	28	168	709	215	51	19	100%	6.0	30.3%	7.1%	23.1%	2.6%	3.26	3.26	+3.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	PIT	27	27	163	688	207	50	19	100%	6.0	30.1%	7.3%	22.9%	2.7%	3.31	3.35	+2.8
2035	29	MLB CTX	PIT	26	26	156	659	197	50	19	100%	6.0	29.9%	7.5%	22.4%	2.8%	3.40	3.47	+2.4
2036	30	MLB CTX	PIT	24	24	147	621	183	49	19	100%	6.1	29.6%	7.8%	21.7%	3.0%	3.55	3.64	+2.0
2037	31	MLB CTX	PIT	23	23	137	578	169	47	19	100%	6.0	29.2%	8.2%	21.0%	3.2%	3.72	3.84	+1.5
2038	32	MLB CTX	PIT	21	21	127	536	154	46	19	100%	6.0	28.7%	8.6%	20.1%	3.5%	3.91	4.05	+1.0
2039	33	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	116	490	138	44	18	100%	6.1	28.2%	9.0%	19.2%	3.7%	4.13	4.28	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		322	322	1861	7857	2320	600	223	100%	5.8	29.5%	7.6%	21.9%	2.8%	3.50	3.13	+41.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	249	64	24	100%	5.8	29.5%	7.6%	21.9%	2.8%	3.50	3.13	+4.4
Career	—	MLE		18	18	74	292	89	36	13	100%	4.1	30.6%	12.3%	18.3%	4.3%	2.43	4.44	+32.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	49	200	789	242	97	34	100%	4.1	30.6%	12.3%	18.3%	4.3%	2.43	4.44	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Seth Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.78	28.6%	8.6%	3.0%	—	3.60	28.8%	21.1%	497	-0.18	—	—	—
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	82
Andrew Hoffmann R 2021 · 3.17 FIP	21	SP	3.17	23.6%	8.1%	1.9%	.275	4.91	18.6%	8.8%	311	+1.74	3.17	421	82
Kumar Rocker R 2023 · 2.86 FIP	23	SP	2.86	29.1%	7.3%	2.4%	.317	3.93	22.0%	13.5%	250	+1.07	1.93	278	82
Cole Henry R 2021 · 2.96 FIP	22	SP	2.96	29.8%	7.8%	2.5%	.233	4.99	21.8%	7.7%	56	+2.03	2.96	186	80
Owen White R 2021 · 2.99 FIP	21	SP	2.99	29.6%	10.5%	1.9%	.343	4.74	17.8%	7.8%	288	+1.75	2.99	402	79
Alec Hansen R 2016 · 3.62 FIP	21	SP	3.62	30.1%	12.7%	2.7%	.150	4.34	21.8%	6.0%	222	+0.72	3.34	288	78
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	76
Angel Jimenez R 2023 · 3.31 FIP	20	SP	3.31	23.3%	5.1%	2.8%	.368	4.43	21.1%	10.0%	144	+1.12	3.24	223	76
Gilberto Batista R 2023 · 3.63 FIP	18	SP-	3.63	22.8%	6.2%	3.0%	.323	5.53	15.1%	5.0%	210	+1.90	3.63	250	76
Nick Frasso R 2022 · 2.60 FIP	23	SP	2.60	27.2%	9.2%	1.1%	.265	3.82	19.3%	9.9%	170	+1.22	2.60	268	74
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	73
Shawndrick Oduber R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	18	SP	3.99	22.0%	7.2%	3.4%	.337	5.40	15.2%	3.4%	72	+1.41	3.99	104	73
David Sandlin R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	24.8%	6.5%	4.0%	.360	4.39	21.4%	12.1%	253	+0.34	3.94	312	73
Jordan Johnson R 2015 · 2.93 FIP	21	SP	2.93	21.2%	5.7%	1.6%	.347	5.00	15.3%	5.2%	350	+2.07	2.93	443	72
Gavin Stone R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	22	SP	3.15	27.3%	7.8%	2.5%	.385	3.61	22.7%	14.3%	394	+0.46	2.39	485	72
Yadier Álvarez R 2016 · 2.70 FIP	20	SP	2.70	24.3%	10.6%	0.6%	.285	4.15	18.6%	2.4%	141	+1.45	2.70	225	72
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	72
Spencer Strider R 2021 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP	3.37	30.7%	11.6%	2.5%	.298	2.16	37.4%	29.6%	318	-1.21	1.65	589	72
Juan Nuñez R 2021 · 2.88 FIP	20	SP	2.88	22.7%	10.1%	0.8%	.287	4.43	21.2%	7.5%	184	+1.55	2.88	245	72
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.7	152	29.5%	7.7%	1.18	3.63
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45