Seth Hernandez
P
Bradenton Marauders
+0.6
WAR
Age 20
RHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.2 · 2027
ERA4.30
FIP4.30
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.5%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.3%
IP7
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2027
OFP—55
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 2 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 44.4% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 1.29 | -0.05 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | PIT | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 54 | 21 | 7 | 23.5% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 20 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 61 | 253 | 69 | 22 | 7 | 27.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 3.80 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | PIT | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 57 | 21 | 7 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.19 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | PIT | 60 | — | 60 | 251 | 62 | 21 | 7 | 24.8% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 4.03 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 66 | 21 | 7 | 25.4% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.01 | 3.92 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 63 | 267 | 69 | 21 | 8 | 25.9% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 3.91 | 3.84 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 71 | 21 | 8 | 26.3% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.84 | 3.79 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 72 | 21 | 8 | 26.5% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.79 | 3.76 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 64 | 268 | 71 | 21 | 8 | 26.5% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.78 | 3.77 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 62 | 264 | 70 | 21 | 8 | 26.5% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.79 | 3.80 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 68 | 20 | 7 | 26.4% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 3.82 | 3.84 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 65 | 20 | 7 | 26.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 3.87 | 3.91 | +0.7 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 63 | 20 | 7 | 25.9% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 3.94 | 3.98 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 59 | 19 | 7 | 25.6% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.02 | 4.07 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 56 | 19 | 7 | 25.3% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.11 | 4.17 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 44.4% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 1.29 | -0.05 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 57 | 200 | 714 | 314 | 29 | 0 | 44.4% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 1.29 | -0.05 | +12.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Seth Hernandez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 23.5% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.04 | 24.7% | 16.3% | 178 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Alex Cook R 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.03 | 26.1% | 10.8% | 3.2% | .266 | 3.34 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 53 | -0.69 | 2.94 | 119 | 88 |
| Dualvert Gutierrez R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.18 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .352 | 4.29 | 15.9% | 2.2% | 78 | +1.11 | 3.18 | 130 | 85 |
| Anderson Brito R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.51 | 27.5% | 11.9% | 2.2% | .231 | 3.27 | 23.9% | 8.5% | 49 | -0.24 | 3.27 | 103 | 85 |
| Sam Bragg R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.26 | 23.2% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .306 | 3.98 | 15.7% | 8.5% | 203 | +0.72 | 3.26 | 277 | 85 |
| Lucas Wepf R 2029 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.65 | 27.6% | 10.7% | 2.8% | .323 | 3.49 | 26.5% | 14.2% | 85 | -0.16 | 2.90 | 144 | 85 |
| Scott Engler R 2028 · 2.95 FIP | 22 | SW | 2.95 | 26.4% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .296 | 4.14 | 23.8% | 12.6% | 53 | +1.19 | 2.95 | 170 | 84 |
| Christian Zazueta R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.88 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 3.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 211 | 84 |
| John Russell R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.98 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 4.78 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 60 | +0.80 | 3.92 | 158 | 84 |
| Alessandro Ercolani R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.89 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .267 | 5.28 | 12.7% | 2.8% | 100 | +1.39 | 3.82 | 291 | 84 |
| Mark Ecker R 2028 · 3.23 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.23 | 24.6% | 10.6% | 1.6% | .322 | 4.56 | 16.7% | 4.2% | 118 | +1.33 | 3.23 | 180 | 84 |
| Danny Dopico R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.88 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.01 | 3.00 | 318 | 83 |
| J.B. Wendelken R 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.41 | 23.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .288 | 3.88 | 27.2% | 16.4% | 124 | +0.47 | 3.02 | 393 | 83 |
| David Garner R 2028 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.52 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.81 | 154 | 83 |
| Tanner Burns R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.38 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .292 | 5.40 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.02 | 4.38 | 355 | 83 |
| Sean Paul Liñan R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.33 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 1.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 189 | 82 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2029 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.90 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 167 | -0.40 | 3.06 | 230 | 82 |
| Jacob Rhame R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.00 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 2.9% | .240 | 3.62 | 24.4% | 17.8% | 182 | -0.38 | 2.77 | 251 | 82 |
| Parker Curry R 2029 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.75 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .341 | 4.60 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 193 | +0.85 | 3.75 | 256 | 82 |
| Michael Knorr R 2029 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | .312 | 5.10 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +0.87 | 4.23 | 152 | 82 |
| Brendan Collins R 2028 · 3.69 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.69 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.16 | 3.69 | 122 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2029 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2030 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2031 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2032 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2033 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2034 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2035 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $0.0M | $0.0M | +$0.0M | ||