Seth Hernandez
P
Greensboro Grasshoppers
Age 20
RHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION69 act + 31 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10697vR 88
ERA3.81
FIP3.81
K%28.5%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%19.7%
ROS IP31
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 16 | 16 | 69 | 272 | 111 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 4.3 | 30.9% | 12.8% | 18.1% | 4.6% | 2.61 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | PIT | 7 | 7 | 31 | 131 | 37 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 4.4 | 28.5% | 8.8% | 19.7% | 3.0% | 3.81 | 3.81 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 28.5% | 8.8% | 19.7% | 3.0% | 3.80 | 3.80 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 100 | 403 | 148 | 41 | 14 | — | — | 36.8% | 10.3% | 26.5% | 3.4% | 2.98 | 4.39 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 20 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 28.5% | 8.8% | 19.7% | 3.0% | 3.80 | 3.42 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | PIT | 29 | 29 | 139 | 587 | 166 | 50 | 17 | 100% | 4.8 | 28.3% | 8.4% | 19.8% | 2.9% | 3.80 | 3.76 | +2.7 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | PIT | 33 | 33 | 175 | 739 | 212 | 59 | 21 | 100% | 5.3 | 28.7% | 8.0% | 20.8% | 2.9% | 3.71 | 3.63 | +3.6 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | PIT | 33 | 33 | 182 | 768 | 224 | 59 | 22 | 100% | 5.5 | 29.2% | 7.7% | 21.5% | 2.8% | 3.62 | 3.53 | +4.0 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 32 | 32 | 180 | 760 | 225 | 57 | 21 | 100% | 5.6 | 29.6% | 7.4% | 22.2% | 2.8% | 3.53 | 3.46 | +4.1 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 31 | 31 | 182 | 768 | 231 | 56 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.0% | 7.3% | 22.7% | 2.8% | 3.45 | 3.40 | +4.3 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 30 | 30 | 180 | 760 | 230 | 55 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 30.2% | 7.3% | 22.9% | 2.8% | 3.40 | 3.37 | +4.3 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 30 | 30 | 177 | 749 | 226 | 55 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.2% | 7.3% | 22.8% | 2.8% | 3.41 | 3.41 | +4.1 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 29 | 29 | 172 | 726 | 218 | 54 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.1% | 7.5% | 22.6% | 2.9% | 3.46 | 3.50 | +3.8 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 27 | 27 | 164 | 694 | 207 | 54 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 29.8% | 7.7% | 22.1% | 3.1% | 3.56 | 3.63 | +3.4 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 26 | 26 | 154 | 652 | 192 | 52 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 29.5% | 8.0% | 21.5% | 3.3% | 3.71 | 3.81 | +2.9 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 177 | 51 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 29.1% | 8.4% | 20.7% | 3.5% | 3.89 | 4.01 | +2.3 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 161 | 49 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 28.6% | 8.8% | 19.9% | 3.8% | 4.10 | 4.23 | +1.8 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 20 | 20 | 122 | 516 | 145 | 48 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 28.1% | 9.2% | 18.9% | 4.0% | 4.33 | 4.48 | +1.3 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | PIT | 14 | 14 | 69 | 291 | 82 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 4.9 | 28.3% | 8.4% | 19.8% | 2.9% | 3.79 | 3.75 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | PIT | 25 | 25 | 128 | 540 | 155 | 43 | 15 | 100% | 5.1 | 28.7% | 8.0% | 20.8% | 2.8% | 3.70 | 3.62 | +2.7 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | PIT | 29 | 29 | 154 | 650 | 190 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 5.3 | 29.2% | 7.7% | 21.5% | 2.8% | 3.61 | 3.52 | +3.4 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | PIT | 29 | 29 | 160 | 676 | 200 | 50 | 19 | 100% | 5.5 | 29.6% | 7.4% | 22.2% | 2.8% | 3.52 | 3.45 | +3.6 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 29 | 29 | 167 | 705 | 212 | 52 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 30.0% | 7.3% | 22.7% | 2.8% | 3.44 | 3.39 | +3.9 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 28 | 28 | 168 | 709 | 214 | 52 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 30.2% | 7.3% | 22.9% | 2.8% | 3.39 | 3.36 | +4.0 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 28 | 28 | 168 | 709 | 214 | 52 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 30.2% | 7.3% | 22.8% | 2.8% | 3.40 | 3.40 | +3.9 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 207 | 52 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 30.1% | 7.5% | 22.6% | 2.9% | 3.45 | 3.49 | +3.6 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 197 | 51 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 29.8% | 7.7% | 22.1% | 3.1% | 3.55 | 3.62 | +3.2 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 183 | 50 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 29.5% | 8.0% | 21.5% | 3.3% | 3.70 | 3.80 | +2.7 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 168 | 48 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 29.1% | 8.4% | 20.7% | 3.5% | 3.88 | 4.00 | +2.2 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 154 | 47 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 28.6% | 8.8% | 19.9% | 3.7% | 4.09 | 4.22 | +1.8 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 138 | 45 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 28.1% | 9.2% | 18.9% | 4.0% | 4.32 | 4.47 | +1.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 322 | 322 | 1860 | 7851 | 2313 | 616 | 240 | 100% | 5.8 | 29.5% | 7.8% | 21.6% | 3.1% | 3.65 | 3.28 | +46.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 249 | 66 | 26 | 100% | 5.8 | 29.5% | 7.8% | 21.6% | 3.1% | 3.65 | 3.28 | +4.9 | ||
| Career | — | 16 | 16 | 69 | 272 | 84 | 35 | 13 | 100% | 4.3 | 30.9% | 12.8% | 18.1% | 4.6% | 2.61 | 4.65 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 46 | 200 | 788 | 243 | 101 | 37 | 100% | 4.3 | 30.9% | 12.8% | 18.1% | 4.6% | 2.61 | 4.65 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Seth Hernandez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.81 | 28.5% | 8.8% | 3.0% | — | 3.63 | 28.8% | 20.8% | 496 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2028 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.67 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .341 | 3.99 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.32 | 3.44 | 259 | 83 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2029 · 2.94 FIP | 23 | SP | 2.94 | 29.1% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .317 | 3.94 | 21.6% | 13.6% | 202 | +1.00 | 1.95 | 230 | 82 |
| Ramon Marquez R 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.00 | 30.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 104 | 82 |
| Andrew Hoffmann R 2027 · 3.03 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.03 | 23.6% | 8.1% | 1.6% | .275 | 5.12 | 19.0% | 8.7% | 311 | +2.09 | 3.03 | 420 | 81 |
| Cole Henry R 2028 · 3.12 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.12 | 29.8% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .233 | 4.91 | 21.8% | 7.7% | 56 | +1.79 | 3.12 | 180 | 81 |
| Owen White R 2027 · 3.00 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.00 | 29.6% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .343 | 4.83 | 18.2% | 7.3% | 288 | +1.83 | 3.00 | 402 | 80 |
| Alec Hansen R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.62 | 30.1% | 12.7% | 2.7% | .150 | 4.38 | 21.8% | 6.0% | 222 | +0.76 | 3.38 | 288 | 79 |
| Cade Horton R 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.09 | 26.0% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .273 | 3.57 | 22.0% | 13.7% | 181 | +0.48 | 3.09 | 270 | 77 |
| Christian Zazueta R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 3.0% | .277 | 3.55 | 28.6% | 22.7% | 66 | -0.25 | 3.55 | 276 | 76 |
| Ryan Sloan R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.75 | 24.1% | 5.1% | 3.7% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 133 | 76 |
| David Sandlin R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.89 | 24.8% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .360 | 4.44 | 21.5% | 11.8% | 217 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 275 | 75 |
| Angel Jimenez R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.27 | 23.3% | 5.1% | 2.7% | .368 | 3.76 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 115 | +0.49 | 3.04 | 194 | 75 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2029 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.26 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 176 | +1.61 | 3.65 | 211 | 74 |
| Spencer Strider R 2028 · 3.64 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.64 | 30.7% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .298 | 2.16 | 37.4% | 29.6% | 318 | -1.48 | 1.65 | 589 | 74 |
| Gavin Stone R 2028 · 3.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.22 | 27.3% | 7.8% | 2.6% | .385 | 3.71 | 23.0% | 14.2% | 394 | +0.49 | 2.39 | 485 | 73 |
| Yadier Álvarez R 2026 · 2.71 FIP | 20 | SP | 2.71 | 24.3% | 10.6% | 0.6% | .285 | 4.09 | 18.6% | 2.4% | 141 | +1.38 | 2.71 | 225 | 73 |
| Jordan Johnson R 2027 · 2.91 FIP | 21 | SP | 2.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 1.6% | .347 | 5.12 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 350 | +2.21 | 2.91 | 443 | 73 |
| Rayner Urbaez R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.82 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .337 | 3.35 | 15.0% | 3.0% | 27 | -0.47 | 2.50 | 103 | 73 |
| Argenis Cayama R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.95 | 23.0% | 6.5% | 3.6% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 123 | 72 |
| Juan Nuñez R 2026 · 2.88 FIP | 20 | SP | 2.88 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.8% | .287 | 4.47 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 184 | +1.59 | 2.88 | 245 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 14 | 153 | 29.4% | 7.9% | 1.18 | 3.66 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Joe Musgrove ('24) | 9 | 117 | 23.9% | 6.0% | 1.13 | 3.73 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |
| Kenta Maeda ('24) | 8 | 122 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 1.30 | 4.17 |