Seth Hernandez — OGILVIE

Seth Hernandez P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.5 · 2031

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 95 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA3.80

FIP3.80

K%29.3%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%20.5%

ROS IP95

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$67M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6065

CTRL5555

CMD4055

K†6570

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$14M	+$14M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.6	$17M	+$16M
2031	Arb-1	$9M	+2.8	$18M	+$12M
2032	Arb-2	$15M	+3.0	$18M	+$10M
2033	Arb-3	$22M	+2.9	$16M	+$5M
Totals		$48M		$91M	+$63M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	74	292	118	31	10	100%	4.1	30.6%	12.3%	18.3%	4.3%	2.43	4.44	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	74	292	118	31	10	100%	4.1	30.6%	12.3%	18.3%	4.3%	2.43	4.44	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	74	292	118	31	10	100%	4.1	40.4%	10.6%	29.8%	3.4%	2.43	2.92	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	PIT	20	20	95	401	118	35	12	100%	4.8	29.3%	8.8%	20.5%	3.1%	3.80	3.80	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	PIT	27	27	136	573	170	46	17	100%	5.0	29.6%	8.1%	21.5%	3.0%	3.73	3.66	+2.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	PIT	33	33	175	738	220	57	22	100%	5.3	29.8%	7.7%	22.1%	3.0%	3.64	3.56	+2.8
2030	24	MLB MLE	PIT	33	33	185	780	234	58	23	100%	5.6	30.0%	7.5%	22.5%	2.9%	3.57	3.50	+3.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	PIT	31	31	180	760	229	56	22	100%	5.8	30.2%	7.4%	22.8%	2.9%	3.51	3.46	+3.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	PIT	31	31	185	780	237	57	23	100%	6.0	30.4%	7.3%	23.1%	2.9%	3.47	3.44	+3.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	PIT	30	30	180	760	231	56	23	100%	6.0	30.4%	7.4%	23.0%	3.0%	3.47	3.48	+3.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	PIT	29	29	175	737	223	56	23	100%	6.0	30.3%	7.5%	22.7%	3.1%	3.53	3.56	+2.8
2035	29	MLB MLE	PIT	28	28	167	704	211	55	23	100%	6.0	30.0%	7.8%	22.3%	3.2%	3.63	3.69	+2.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	PIT	26	26	157	662	196	53	23	100%	6.0	29.7%	8.1%	21.6%	3.4%	3.77	3.87	+1.9
2037	31	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	146	617	181	52	22	100%	6.1	29.3%	8.4%	20.9%	3.6%	3.95	4.07	+1.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	135	570	164	50	22	100%	5.9	28.8%	8.8%	20.0%	3.9%	4.16	4.30	+1.0
2039	33	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	124	524	148	49	22	100%	5.9	28.3%	9.3%	19.1%	4.2%	4.39	4.55	+0.5
2040	34	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	113	476	132	47	21	100%	5.9	27.8%	9.8%	18.0%	4.5%	4.65	4.82	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	67	283	84	23	8	100%	5.2	29.6%	8.1%	21.5%	2.8%	3.61	3.54	+1.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	PIT	24	24	128	540	161	42	15	100%	5.3	29.8%	7.7%	22.1%	2.7%	3.52	3.44	+2.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	PIT	27	27	153	646	194	48	17	100%	5.7	30.0%	7.5%	22.5%	2.7%	3.45	3.38	+2.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	PIT	27	27	159	671	203	49	18	100%	5.9	30.2%	7.4%	22.8%	2.7%	3.39	3.34	+2.8
2032	26	MLB CTX	PIT	28	28	169	714	217	52	19	100%	6.0	30.4%	7.3%	23.1%	2.7%	3.35	3.32	+3.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	PIT	28	28	167	705	214	52	19	100%	6.0	30.4%	7.4%	23.0%	2.7%	3.35	3.36	+2.9
2034	28	MLB CTX	PIT	27	27	163	688	208	52	19	100%	6.0	30.3%	7.5%	22.7%	2.8%	3.40	3.43	+2.6
2035	29	MLB CTX	PIT	26	26	158	667	200	52	20	100%	6.1	30.0%	7.8%	22.3%	3.0%	3.50	3.56	+2.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	PIT	25	25	149	629	187	51	20	100%	6.0	29.7%	8.1%	21.6%	3.2%	3.63	3.73	+1.8
2037	31	MLB CTX	PIT	23	23	139	587	172	49	20	100%	6.0	29.3%	8.4%	20.9%	3.4%	3.80	3.92	+1.4
2038	32	MLB CTX	PIT	21	21	128	540	156	48	19	100%	6.1	28.8%	8.8%	20.0%	3.6%	4.00	4.14	+0.9
2039	33	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	118	498	141	46	19	100%	5.9	28.3%	9.3%	19.1%	3.9%	4.22	4.38	+0.5
2040	34	MLB CTX	PIT	17	17	102	431	120	42	18	100%	6.0	27.8%	9.8%	18.0%	4.1%	4.47	4.64	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		307	307	1800	7602	2257	607	232	100%	5.9	29.7%	8.0%	21.7%	3.1%	3.63	3.28	+36.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	251	67	26	100%	5.9	29.7%	8.0%	21.7%	3.1%	3.63	3.28	+4.0
Career	—	MLE		18	18	74	292	89	36	13	100%	4.1	30.6%	12.3%	18.3%	4.3%	2.43	4.44	+27.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	49	200	789	242	97	34	100%	4.1	30.6%	12.3%	18.3%	4.3%	2.43	4.44	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Seth Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.80	29.3%	8.8%	3.1%	—	3.57	29.8%	22.1%	496	-0.23	—	—	—
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.59	21.9%	14.0%	181	+0.37	3.22	270	86
Spencer Strider R 2021 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP	3.37	30.7%	11.6%	2.5%	.298	2.16	37.4%	29.6%	318	-1.21	1.65	589	84
Ryan Murphy R 2021 · 3.56 FIP	21	SP	3.56	29.4%	7.3%	3.7%	.279	4.53	20.9%	9.8%	181	+0.97	2.54	367	83
Gavin Stone R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	22	SP	3.15	27.3%	7.8%	2.5%	.385	3.59	22.9%	14.5%	394	+0.44	2.39	500	83
José De León R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.9%	8.6%	3.0%	.295	3.62	25.9%	17.9%	130	+0.12	3.24	445	83
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	81
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	80
Tink Hence R 2024 · 2.64 FIP	21	SP	2.64	27.6%	8.9%	1.4%	.300	6.15	17.4%	1.0%	20	+3.51	2.07	248	79
Chase Hampton R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	26.1%	9.5%	3.5%	.296	7.55	16.7%	-0.5%	36	+3.51	4.04	142	77
Chase Silseth R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	22	SP	4.42	25.2%	9.3%	4.1%	.260	4.18	21.3%	9.7%	165	-0.24	3.23	337	76
Gavin Williams R 2022 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	26.2%	9.9%	2.4%	.238	3.87	25.1%	14.3%	398	+0.43	3.39	697	76
Nate Pearson R 2019 · 3.38 FIP	22	SP	3.38	24.8%	7.7%	2.5%	.235	4.72	27.5%	13.9%	76	+1.34	3.37	413	76
Cole Henry R 2021 · 2.96 FIP	22	SP	2.96	29.8%	7.8%	2.5%	.233	4.99	21.8%	7.7%	56	+2.03	2.96	186	76
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	75
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.27	25.0%	14.6%	148	+0.06	2.00	352	75
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	74
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	74
Nick Frasso R 2022 · 2.60 FIP	23	SP	2.60	27.2%	9.2%	1.1%	.265	3.80	19.6%	10.2%	170	+1.20	2.60	276	74
Grayson Rodriguez R 2021 · 2.70 FIP	21	SP	2.70	32.4%	7.5%	2.5%	.240	3.26	27.2%	19.1%	350	+0.56	1.93	665	74
Mason Black R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	22.3%	9.0%	2.9%	.297	4.62	21.2%	11.3%	364	+0.67	3.95	569	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.8	154	29.7%	8.0%	1.27	3.76
Yu Darvish ('25)	8.9	137	28.4%	7.7%	1.17	3.65
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
Trevor Bauer ('21)	6.5	162	25.9%	9.0%	1.11	3.79
Lance Lynn ('24)	10.0	154	23.7%	8.3%	1.04	3.74
Danny Salazar ('19)	3.0	118	27.7%	8.6%	1.14	3.82
Stephen Strasburg ('22)	7.3	134	28.9%	6.6%	0.91	3.24