Grayson Rodriguez

P Los Angeles Angels

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 0.7 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	31	31	163	3.75	3.55	27.0%	8.9%	3.7	K 25.9% · BB 8.6% · FIP 3.66
2024	24	MLBBAL	20	20	117	3.86	3.47	26.5%	7.3%	2.8
2026	26	MIX4 levels	24	24	118	5.43	4.09	21.3%	8.4%	1.8	K 19.1% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.59
2027PROJ	27	MLBLAA	14	14	81	4.65	4.56	21.9%	8.8%	0.8
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBLAA	12	12	69	4.69	4.69	21.8%	8.9%	0.6
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBLAA	10	10	58	4.79	4.85	21.2%	9.1%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.750First FA2030

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$2M2029Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo72

K%29

xwOBA vs10

Form6.00 ERA (proj 4.65) · K 16.4% (proj 21.9%) · BB 9.8% (proj 8.8%) ▼▼ last 60d · 27 IP through Oct 27

CompsClaudio Vargas (age 27) · Brian Edgington (age 25) · Riley Gowens (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.65

FIP4.56

K%21.9%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%13.2%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p4023.9%

p2919.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.360

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.750 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.3M
2029	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Orioles	9	8	19	80	20	7	0	89%	2.1	17.0%	10.9%	6.1%	0.0%	1.40	3.05	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Orioles	9	8	19	80	20	7	0	89%	2.1	25.0%	8.8%	16.2%	0.0%	1.40	2.12	—
2019	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	20	20	94	377	129	36	4	100%	4.7	25.3%	11.3%	14.1%	1.5%	2.68	3.20	—
2019	19	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	20	20	94	377	129	36	4	100%	4.7	34.2%	9.5%	24.7%	1.1%	2.68	2.06	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	103	398	161	27	10	100%	4.5	32.4%	7.5%	24.8%	2.5%	2.36	2.70	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	103	398	161	27	10	100%	4.5	40.5%	6.8%	33.7%	2.5%	2.36	2.02	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	76	298	109	28	2	100%	4.5	31.5%	8.1%	23.4%	0.8%	2.62	1.93	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	76	298	109	28	2	100%	4.5	36.6%	9.4%	27.2%	0.7%	2.62	1.67	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	163	684	185	61	20	100%	5.3	25.9%	8.6%	17.3%	3.0%	3.75	3.66	+3.4
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	163	684	185	61	20	100%	5.3	27.0%	8.9%	18.1%	2.9%	3.75	3.55	+3.7
2024	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	20	20	117	491	130	36	15	100%	5.8	26.5%	7.3%	19.1%	3.1%	3.86	3.48	+2.7
2024	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	20	20	117	491	130	36	15	100%	5.8	26.5%	7.3%	19.1%	3.1%	3.86	3.48	+2.7
2024	24	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	20	20	117	491	130	36	15	100%	5.8	26.5%	7.3%	19.1%	3.1%	3.86	3.47	+2.8
2026	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	24	24	118	525	112	44	16	100%	4.9	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	3.5%	5.43	4.59	+1.1
2026	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	24	24	118	525	112	44	16	100%	4.9	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	3.5%	5.43	4.59	+1.1
2026	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	24	24	118	525	112	44	16	100%	4.9	21.3%	8.4%	13.0%	3.0%	5.43	4.09	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			63	63	337	1450	344	119	47	100%	5.4	23.7%	8.2%	15.5%	3.2%	4.67	3.93	+5.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	LAA	14	14	81	342	75	30	11	100%	5.8	21.9%	8.8%	13.2%	3.3%	4.65	4.56	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	73	307	67	27	11	100%	6.1	21.8%	8.9%	12.9%	3.4%	4.65	4.65	+0.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	61	259	55	24	9	100%	6.1	21.2%	9.1%	12.1%	3.6%	4.75	4.81	+0.4
2030	30	MLB MLE	LAA	8	8	50	212	43	20	8	100%	6.3	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	3.8%	4.91	5.02	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	69	291	63	26	10	100%	5.8	21.8%	8.9%	12.9%	3.5%	4.69	4.69	+0.6
2029	29	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	58	245	52	22	9	100%	5.8	21.2%	9.1%	12.1%	3.6%	4.79	4.85	+0.4
2030	30	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	48	203	42	19	8	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	3.9%	4.95	5.06	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		92	92	512	2188	501	186	74	100%	5.6	22.9%	8.5%	14.4%	3.4%	4.71	4.10	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	854	196	73	29	100%	5.6	22.9%	8.5%	14.4%	3.4%	4.71	4.10	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		144	143	690	2853	739	249	72	99%	4.8	25.9%	8.7%	17.2%	2.5%	3.51	3.41	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	41	200	827	214	72	21	99%	4.8	25.9%	8.7%	17.2%	2.5%	3.51	3.41	+2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 9 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.94 (+0.95)K% 35.7% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.71%	—	×0.740	26.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.180	8.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 5 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.28 (+0.30)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×0.900	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 41 IPFIP 3.03 → 3.41 (+0.39)K% 33.1% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.14%	—	×0.860	28.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.24%	—	×0.900	10.12%
HR / BF /BF	2.37%	÷0.995	×1.100	2.62%

Result: FIP 3.03 → 3.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 70 IPFIP 1.46 → 1.93 (+0.47)K% 35.8% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.79%	—	×0.880	31.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.75%	—	×1.050	8.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.74%	÷0.970	×1.100	0.84%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 1.46 → 1.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABowie Baysox · 5 IPFIP 1.69 → 2.83 (+1.14)K% 52.4% → 42.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	52.38%	—	×0.810	42.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.81%	—	×1.100	26.19%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.170	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 134).

Result: FIP 1.69 → 2.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AABowie Baysox · 80 IPFIP 2.12 → 2.77 (+0.65)K% 39.0% → 31.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.03%	—	×0.810	31.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.10%	—	×1.100	7.81%
HR / BF /BF	2.58%	÷1.258	×1.200	2.46%

Result: FIP 2.12 → 2.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 23 IPFIP 1.23 → 2.47 (+1.24)K% 45.5% → 35.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.45%	—	×0.770	35.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.68%	—	×1.150	6.53%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.041	×1.250	2.73%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 1.23 → 2.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 94 IPFIP 2.00 → 3.20 (+1.20)K% 34.2% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.22%	—	×0.740	25.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.55%	—	×1.180	11.27%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷0.931	×1.300	1.48%

Result: FIP 2.00 → 3.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grayson Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	21.9%	8.8%	3.3%	—	4.80	21.2%	12.1%	184	+0.24	—	—	—
Claudio Vargas R 2005 · 4.98 FIP	27	SP	4.98	16.2%	7.2%	4.3%	.285	4.61	16.6%	9.2%	339	-0.37	3.66	765	69
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	69
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	68
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	68
Tanner Houck R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	27	SP	4.12	21.4%	8.9%	3.1%	.291	3.57	19.6%	12.8%	233	-0.55	2.27	733	67
Alec Marsh R 2024 · 3.93 FIP	26	SP	3.93	23.4%	7.0%	3.5%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	424	67
Ross Ohlendorf R 2010 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP	4.31	16.6%	8.8%	2.7%	.275	4.60	16.6%	9.3%	148	+0.29	3.30	617	67
Matt Andriese R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP	4.71	20.3%	7.2%	4.4%	.290	3.99	24.5%	17.5%	181	-0.72	3.08	744	67
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	66
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	66
Gavin Williams R 2024 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	24.7%	9.8%	2.3%	.317	3.83	29.1%	19.2%	352	+0.29	3.39	697	66
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	65
James McDonald R 2012 · 4.18 FIP	27	SP	4.18	21.2%	8.8%	3.2%	.264	3.74	18.1%	4.3%	30	-0.44	2.99	506	65
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	65
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	65
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	64
Deck McGuire R 2016 · 5.23 FIP	27	SP	5.23	17.2%	8.5%	4.6%	.287	4.05	19.8%	9.4%	277	-1.18	3.41	622	64
Jeremy Hefner R 2013 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP	4.33	17.8%	5.9%	3.6%	.277	4.64	16.8%	7.7%	98	+0.31	3.56	322	64
Carson Seymour R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	25	SP	4.64	19.0%	9.0%	3.6%	.340	4.43	19.7%	10.2%	221	-0.21	3.39	579	64
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	86	22.7%	8.6%	1.30	4.69
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73
Mike Paul ('68-'74, 2 WAR*)	3.1	105	22.4%*	8.7%*	1.22*	4.77*
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Steve Wilson ('88-'93, 0 WAR*)	1.7	69	21.6%*	8.8%*	1.25*	4.84*
Tom Walker ('72-'77, 1 WAR*)	2.1	83	20.9%*	7.5%*	1.28*	4.32*
Brian Matusz ('16)	2.6	76	19.8%	8.7%	1.34	4.92