Grayson Rodriguez

Grayson Rodriguez P Los Angeles Angels

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION101 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.10

FIP3.98

K%22.8%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%14.3%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 111 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7496.2

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p3720.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.360

CH+6.2 (21%)

SI (1%)

CU (15%)

FB-1.4 (48%)

SL-3.0 (16%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.750 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.1M
2027	Arb-2	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-4	$5M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.1M		$5M	+$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Orioles	9	8	19	80	20	7	0	89%	2.1	17.0%	10.9%	6.1%	0.0%	1.40	3.05	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Orioles	9	8	19	80	20	7	0	89%	2.1	25.0%	8.8%	16.2%	0.0%	1.40	2.12	—
2019	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	20	20	94	377	129	36	4	100%	4.7	25.3%	11.3%	14.1%	1.5%	2.68	3.20	—
2019	19	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	20	20	94	377	129	36	4	100%	4.7	34.2%	9.5%	24.7%	1.1%	2.68	2.06	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	103	398	161	27	10	100%	4.5	32.4%	7.5%	24.8%	2.5%	2.36	2.70	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	103	398	161	27	10	100%	4.5	40.5%	6.8%	33.7%	2.5%	2.36	2.02	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	76	298	109	28	2	100%	4.5	31.5%	8.1%	23.4%	0.8%	2.62	1.93	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	76	298	109	28	2	100%	4.5	36.6%	9.4%	27.2%	0.7%	2.62	1.67	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	163	684	185	61	20	100%	5.3	25.7%	8.6%	17.0%	3.0%	3.75	3.68	+2.4
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	163	684	185	61	20	100%	5.3	25.7%	8.6%	17.0%	3.0%	3.75	3.68	+2.4
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	163	684	185	61	20	100%	5.3	27.0%	8.9%	18.1%	2.9%	3.75	3.55	+2.7
2024	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	20	20	117	491	130	36	15	100%	5.8	26.5%	7.3%	19.1%	3.1%	3.86	3.48	+2.0
2024	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	20	20	117	491	130	36	15	100%	5.8	26.5%	7.3%	19.1%	3.1%	3.86	3.48	+2.0
2024	24	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	20	20	117	491	130	36	15	100%	5.8	26.5%	7.3%	19.1%	3.1%	3.86	3.47	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			60	60	320	1376	334	113	45	100%	5.3	24.3%	8.2%	16.1%	3.3%	4.66	3.90	+3.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	21	21	101	451	102	38	14	100%	4.8	20.3%	9.5%	10.8%	3.7%	5.54	4.62	+0.3
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	21	21	101	451	102	38	14	100%	4.8	20.3%	9.5%	10.8%	3.7%	5.54	4.62	+0.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	ROK RAW	LAA	1	1	5	19	7	0	0	100%	5.0	36.8%	0.0%	36.8%	0.0%	1.80	-0.01	—
2026	26	A RAW	LAA	2	2	9	42	15	3	0	100%	4.3	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	0.0%	3.12	0.99	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	LAA	1	1	5	20	5	0	0	100%	5.3	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	1.69	0.99	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	LAA	17	17	82	370	75	35	14	100%	4.8	20.3%	9.5%	10.8%	3.8%	6.28	4.66	+0.2
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	LAA	17	17	82	370	75	35	14	100%	4.8	20.3%	9.5%	10.8%	3.8%	6.28	4.66	+0.2
ROS	26	MLB MLE	LAA	2	2	11	45	10	4	1	100%	5.4	22.8%	8.5%	14.3%	3.2%	4.10	3.98	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	LAA	2	2	11	46	11	4	1	100%	5.5	22.8%	8.5%	14.3%	3.2%	4.14	4.02	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	111	496	112	42	15	—	—	22.6%	8.4%	14.2%	3.1%	5.40	4.56	+0.4
FULL	26	MLB A+C	LAA	—	—	92	390	112	42	15	—	—	28.8%	10.7%	18.1%	4.0%	6.52	4.20	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	120	508	118	44	17	100%	6.0	23.3%	8.6%	14.7%	3.4%	4.51	4.48	+0.6
2028	28	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	120	508	118	44	18	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.8%	14.4%	3.5%	4.54	4.56	+0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	115	485	110	43	18	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	3.7%	4.65	4.72	+0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	108	456	100	42	18	100%	6.0	21.9%	9.3%	12.6%	3.9%	4.82	4.93	-0.0
2031	31	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	101	425	90	41	17	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.6%	11.5%	4.1%	5.02	5.16	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	LAA	19	19	114	481	112	41	17	100%	6.0	23.3%	8.6%	14.7%	3.5%	4.55	4.52	+0.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	LAA	19	19	114	481	112	42	17	100%	6.0	23.2%	8.8%	14.4%	3.6%	4.58	4.60	+0.5
2029	29	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	109	460	104	41	17	100%	6.1	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	3.7%	4.69	4.76	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	103	435	95	40	17	100%	6.1	21.9%	9.3%	12.6%	3.9%	4.86	4.97	-0.0
2031	31	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	96	405	86	39	17	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.6%	11.5%	4.2%	5.06	5.20	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		151	151	867	3682	853	321	132	100%	5.7	23.2%	8.7%	14.4%	3.6%	4.70	4.21	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	850	197	74	30	100%	5.7	23.2%	8.7%	14.4%	3.6%	4.70	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		141	140	673	2779	729	243	70	99%	4.8	26.2%	8.8%	17.5%	2.5%	3.48	3.39	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	42	200	826	217	72	21	99%	4.8	26.2%	8.8%	17.5%	2.5%	3.48	3.39	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grayson Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.83	27.1%	7.5%	3.1%	—	4.58	23.0%	14.3%	355	+0.75	—	—	—
Nathan Eovaldi R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP	4.71	18.5%	7.2%	4.1%	.272	4.29	22.6%	15.6%	179	-0.42	2.44	1,378	69
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.16	17.5%	7.3%	304	+1.22	3.61	547	68
Danny Salazar R 2016 · 3.58 FIP	26	SP	3.58	27.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.303	3.34	33.0%	23.0%	103	-0.24	3.34	425	68
Graham Ashcraft R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	25	SP	4.53	17.8%	8.3%	3.4%	.285	3.51	20.6%	11.5%	172	-1.02	2.67	569	67
José Ureña R 2018 · 3.86 FIP	26	SP	3.86	18.3%	6.0%	2.8%	.262	4.78	15.5%	7.2%	209	+0.92	3.86	1,251	67
Vince Velasquez R 2018 · 3.41 FIP	26	SP	3.41	25.6%	9.2%	2.4%	.309	4.76	25.5%	15.9%	246	+1.35	3.26	959	67
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	67
Julian Merryweather R 2017 · 3.79 FIP	25	SP	3.79	19.4%	6.6%	2.7%	.330	2.18	27.3%	16.4%	13	-1.61	2.18	547	67
Mike Clevinger R 2017 · 3.64 FIP	26	SP-	3.64	26.5%	11.3%	2.5%	.274	3.11	28.3%	20.3%	368	-0.53	2.28	1,236	67
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	67
Joe Kelly R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	19.0%	8.4%	2.5%	.309	3.21	24.6%	14.1%	199	-0.71	2.38	556	66
Michael Wacha R 2017 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP	3.57	22.5%	7.4%	2.6%	.323	4.92	19.7%	10.9%	245	+1.35	3.57	1,638	66
Michael Fulmer R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	25	SP	4.41	19.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.284	4.05	21.8%	14.9%	97	-0.36	2.74	917	65
Sonny Gray R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SP	4.69	18.2%	8.1%	3.8%	.317	3.48	24.6%	15.4%	468	-1.21	2.55	1,792	65
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	65
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	15.4%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.57	21.4%	13.2%	105	-1.09	2.42	444	65
Luke Weaver R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	26	SP	4.56	23.3%	7.6%	4.5%	.346	4.41	20.7%	13.8%	225	-0.15	2.54	1,038	65
Nate Karns R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP	3.98	23.3%	8.9%	3.1%	.281	4.07	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.09	3.88	287	65
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	65
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.09	19.9%	12.5%	148	-0.57	3.68	261	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	114	23.3%	8.8%	1.39	4.57
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Domingo Germán ('24)	2.6	88	24.4%	7.4%	1.65	4.58
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38