Grayson Rodriguez

Grayson Rodriguez P Baltimore Orioles

+1.0 WAR

INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.0 · 2027

ERA4.02

FIP3.96

xFIP3.57

SIERA3.61

K%25.6%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%17.5%

IP118

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.0peak

2027

K†6565

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p8030.0%

p7326.5%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

CH+6.2 (21%)

SI (1%)

CU (15%)

FB-1.4 (48%)

SL-3.0 (16%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	GCL Orioles	9	8	19	80	20	7	0	17.0%	10.9%	0.0%	1.40	3.05	+0.4
2019	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	20	20	94	377	129	36	4	25.3%	11.3%	1.5%	2.68	3.21	+2.2
2021	21	AA	Bowie Baysox	23	23	103	398	161	27	10	32.4%	7.5%	2.6%	2.36	2.75	+3.0
2022	22	AAA	Norfolk Tides	17	17	76	298	109	28	2	31.5%	8.1%	0.8%	2.62	1.93	+2.7
2023	23	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	31	31	163	684	185	61	20	26.1%	9.1%	2.9%	3.75	3.62	+3.1
2024	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	20	20	117	491	130	36	15	26.5%	7.3%	2.9%	3.86	3.39	+2.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	BAL	59	—	59	249	68	20	7	27.3%	8.1%	3.0%	4.01	3.84	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	27	MLB	BAL	22	22	121	511	140	42	15	27.3%	8.2%	3.0%	3.92	3.85	+2.0
2028	28	MLB	BAL	22	22	121	512	140	42	16	27.3%	8.2%	3.0%	3.90	3.88	+2.0
2029	29	MLB	BAL	22	22	119	501	134	42	15	26.8%	8.3%	3.1%	3.93	3.96	+1.8
2030	30	MLB	BAL	21	21	115	486	127	41	15	26.2%	8.4%	3.1%	4.00	4.05	+1.6
2031	31	MLB	BAL	20	20	111	469	120	40	15	25.7%	8.5%	3.2%	4.09	4.15	+1.4
2032	32	MLB	BAL	19	19	107	450	113	39	15	25.0%	8.7%	3.3%	4.20	4.27	+1.2
2033	33	MLB	BAL	19	19	102	430	105	38	15	24.4%	8.8%	3.4%	4.32	4.39	+1.1
2034	34	MLB	BAL	18	18	97	408	97	37	14	23.7%	9.0%	3.5%	4.45	4.53	+0.8
2035	35	MLB	BAL	17	17	91	385	88	36	14	22.9%	9.3%	3.6%	4.59	4.69	+0.5
2036	36	MLB	BAL	15	15	85	360	80	34	13	22.2%	9.5%	3.7%	4.74	4.85	+0.3
2037	37	MLB	BAL	14	14	79	334	78	30	13	23.4%	9.0%	3.8%	4.75	4.75	+0.3
2038	38	MLB	BAL	13	13	73	307	69	29	12	22.5%	9.3%	4.0%	4.86	4.94	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			120	119	572	2328	640	203	52	27.5%	8.7%	2.3%	3.12	3.12	+14.1
/ 200 IP	—			42	42	200	814	224	71	18	27.5%	8.7%	2.3%	3.12	3.12	+4.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grayson Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.84	27.3%	8.1%	3.0%	—	3.90	27.1%	18.9%	361	+0.06	—	—	—
Daniel Hudson R 2028 · 3.48 FIP	28	SW	3.48	24.5%	7.9%	2.6%	.302	3.74	22.8%	13.6%	168	+0.26	1.69	468	71
Ryan Brasier R 2028 · 3.68 FIP	28	SW	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.07	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.61	2.31	403	69
Arodys Vizcaíno R 2026 · 3.58 FIP	26	SW	3.58	27.2%	8.5%	3.1%	.243	3.61	25.3%	16.4%	38	+0.03	2.27	183	69
Luke Bard R 2026 · 2.87 FIP	26	SW	2.87	28.7%	8.0%	2.1%	.362	4.58	21.8%	13.9%	128	+1.71	2.87	388	68
Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.49 FIP	27	SW	3.49	26.8%	9.6%	2.6%	.295	2.83	30.3%	18.1%	57	-0.66	2.83	239	68
Tyler Kinley R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	26	SW	3.72	25.0%	10.3%	2.6%	.295	3.80	25.0%	11.7%	140	+0.08	1.58	544	68
Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 2.61 FIP	26	SW	2.61	29.1%	9.1%	1.5%	.313	3.79	21.4%	13.0%	193	+1.18	2.48	507	68
Simon Castro R 2027 · 3.26 FIP	27	SW	3.26	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.48	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.22	3.07	185	67
Jaden Hill R 2025 · 2.56 FIP	25	SU	2.56	28.4%	7.7%	1.6%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	129	67
Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.36 FIP	26	SU	3.36	26.6%	8.0%	2.7%	.291	2.98	24.1%	13.3%	63	-0.38	2.67	178	67
Lou Trivino R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	26	SW	3.60	27.4%	9.0%	3.0%	.247	3.85	22.4%	11.8%	157	+0.25	2.39	550	67
Tucker Healy R 2026 · 2.83 FIP	26	SW	2.83	30.4%	10.5%	1.8%	.294	4.61	16.9%	5.8%	67	+1.78	2.83	174	66
Mychal Givens R 2026 · 2.93 FIP	26	SW	2.93	30.7%	10.9%	1.9%	.299	3.32	28.3%	20.0%	218	+0.39	1.77	526	66
Andrew Kittredge R 2026 · 3.09 FIP	26	SW	3.09	23.1%	6.6%	2.0%	.353	3.00	25.6%	19.7%	255	-0.09	2.48	642	66
Brandon Maurer R 2026 · 2.98 FIP	26	SW	2.98	24.0%	6.0%	2.1%	.286	4.28	21.0%	11.4%	114	+1.30	2.98	234	66
Brad Boxberger R 2027 · 3.86 FIP	27	SW	3.86	27.3%	10.0%	3.3%	.280	4.05	28.5%	17.2%	107	+0.19	3.02	363	66
James Farris R 2025 · 3.73 FIP	25	SW	3.73	24.4%	6.6%	3.4%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	170	66
Trevor Gott R 2026 · 2.99 FIP	26	SW	2.99	26.6%	7.9%	2.1%	.272	4.41	24.1%	15.6%	99	+1.42	2.70	421	66
Juan Minaya R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	26	SW	3.69	24.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.291	3.65	25.1%	14.5%	132	-0.04	3.19	446	66
Andrew Politi R 2026 · 3.37 FIP	26	SW	3.37	26.1%	8.5%	2.6%	.238	4.87	20.1%	8.8%	69	+1.50	3.37	292	66

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.750 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.0	$8M	+$7M
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+2.0	$16M	+$12M
2028	Arb-3	$8M	+2.0	$17M	+$9M
2029	Arb-4	$11M	+1.8	$16M	+$5M
Totals		$23M		$57M	+$34M