Grayson Rodriguez

Grayson Rodriguez P Los Angeles Angels

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10697vR 88

ERA3.92

FIP3.79

K%23.0%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%14.8%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 115 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7496.2

Whiff%

p1820.8%

p1016.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.394

CH+6.2 (21%)

SI (1%)

CU (15%)

FB-1.4 (48%)

SL-3.0 (16%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.750 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2027	Arb-2	$5M	+1.6	$12M	+$7M
2028	Arb-3	$8M	+1.5	$10M	+$3M
2029	Arb-4	$11M	+1.2	$8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$14M		$33M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	GCL Orioles	9	8	19	80	20	7	0	89%	2.1	17.0%	10.9%	6.1%	0.0%	1.40	3.05	—
2018	18	ROK	GCL Orioles	9	8	19	80	20	7	0	89%	2.1	25.0%	8.8%	16.2%	0.0%	1.40	2.12	—
2019	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	20	20	94	377	129	36	4	100%	4.7	25.3%	11.3%	14.1%	1.6%	2.68	3.27	—
2019	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	20	20	94	377	129	36	4	100%	4.7	34.2%	9.5%	24.7%	1.1%	2.68	2.06	—
2021	21	MIX	2 levels	23	23	103	398	161	27	10	100%	4.5	32.4%	7.5%	24.8%	2.2%	2.36	2.51	—
2021	21	MIX	2 levels	23	23	103	398	161	27	10	100%	4.5	40.5%	6.8%	33.7%	2.5%	2.36	2.02	—
2022	22	MIX	3 levels	17	17	76	298	109	28	2	100%	4.5	31.5%	8.1%	23.4%	0.9%	2.62	1.94	—
2022	22	MIX	3 levels	17	17	76	298	109	28	2	100%	4.5	36.6%	9.4%	27.2%	0.7%	2.62	1.67	—
2023	23	MIX	2 levels	31	31	163	684	185	61	20	100%	5.3	26.1%	9.1%	17.0%	2.8%	3.75	3.60	+3.4
2023	23	MIX	2 levels	31	31	163	684	185	61	20	100%	5.3	27.0%	8.9%	18.1%	2.9%	3.75	3.55	+3.5
2024	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	20	20	117	491	130	36	15	100%	5.8	26.5%	7.3%	19.1%	2.8%	3.86	3.35	+2.8
2024	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	20	20	117	491	130	36	15	100%	5.8	26.5%	7.3%	19.1%	3.1%	3.86	3.47	+2.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	11	11	50	227	51	18	4	100%	4.5	16.4%	10.3%	6.2%	2.7%	5.58	4.52	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB	LAA	11	11	65	274	63	23	8	100%	5.9	23.0%	8.2%	14.8%	2.9%	3.92	3.79	+0.7
ROS	26	MLB	LAA	11	11	65	274	63	23	8	100%	5.9	23.0%	8.2%	14.8%	2.9%	3.90	3.77	+0.7
2026 TOT	26	MLB	LAA	—	—	115	501	114	41	12	—	—	22.8%	8.1%	14.7%	2.4%	4.65	4.11	+1.7
2026 FULL	26	MLB	LAA	—	—	96	404	114	41	12	—	—	28.2%	10.0%	18.2%	2.9%	5.55	3.59	+1.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	LAA	20	20	120	508	121	43	15	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.4%	15.4%	2.9%	4.19	4.16	+1.7
2028	28	MLB	LAA	20	20	120	508	120	43	15	100%	6.0	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	3.0%	4.22	4.24	+1.6
2029	29	MLB	LAA	19	19	115	485	112	42	16	100%	6.0	23.0%	8.8%	14.3%	3.2%	4.33	4.40	+1.3
2030	30	MLB	LAA	18	18	108	456	102	41	15	100%	6.0	22.3%	9.1%	13.3%	3.4%	4.50	4.61	+1.0
2031	31	MLB	LAA	17	17	101	425	92	40	15	100%	5.9	21.6%	9.4%	12.2%	3.6%	4.70	4.84	+0.7
2032	32	MLB	LAA	16	16	93	393	82	39	15	100%	5.8	20.8%	9.8%	11.0%	3.9%	4.94	5.09	+0.2
2033	33	MLB	LAA	14	14	85	361	72	37	15	100%	6.1	19.9%	10.3%	9.7%	4.2%	5.20	5.37	-0.3
2027	27	MLB	LAA	19	19	114	481	114	40	14	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.4%	15.4%	2.9%	4.16	4.13	+1.7
2028	28	MLB	LAA	19	19	114	481	114	41	14	100%	6.0	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	3.0%	4.19	4.21	+1.6
2029	29	MLB	LAA	18	18	109	460	106	40	14	100%	6.1	23.0%	8.8%	14.3%	3.1%	4.30	4.37	+1.3
2030	30	MLB	LAA	17	17	103	435	97	39	15	100%	6.1	22.3%	9.1%	13.3%	3.3%	4.47	4.58	+1.0
2031	31	MLB	LAA	16	16	96	405	87	38	14	100%	6.0	21.6%	9.4%	12.2%	3.6%	4.67	4.81	+0.6
2032	32	MLB	LAA	15	15	88	372	77	36	14	100%	5.9	20.8%	9.8%	11.0%	3.8%	4.90	5.05	+0.1
2033	33	MLB	LAA	14	14	81	342	68	35	14	100%	5.8	19.9%	10.3%	9.7%	4.1%	5.16	5.33	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			182	182	1040	4403	1010	386	143	100%	5.7	22.9%	8.8%	14.2%	3.2%	4.47	4.05	+16.4
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	847	194	74	28	100%	5.7	22.9%	8.8%	14.2%	3.2%	4.47	4.05	+3.1
Career	—			131	130	622	2555	677	227	57	99%	4.7	26.5%	8.9%	17.6%	2.2%	3.31	3.20	+16.0
/ 200 IP	—			42	42	200	822	218	73	18	99%	4.7	26.5%	8.9%	17.6%	2.2%	3.31	3.20	+5.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grayson Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.74	27.3%	7.5%	2.9%	—	4.26	23.5%	14.9%	355	+0.52	—	—	—
Julian Merryweather R 2025 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	19.4%	6.6%	2.4%	.330	2.18	27.3%	16.4%	13	-1.42	2.18	530	67
Joe Kelly R 2027 · 3.87 FIP	27	SP	3.87	19.0%	8.4%	2.4%	.309	3.19	24.6%	14.1%	199	-0.68	2.48	556	66
Yariel Rodríguez R 2027 · 3.80 FIP	27	SP	3.80	25.1%	11.8%	2.4%	.275	3.77	24.2%	12.3%	89	-0.03	2.60	196	66
Alec Marsh R 2026 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP	3.91	23.5%	7.2%	3.4%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.91	424	66
Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	26	SP	4.78	16.3%	7.2%	3.9%	.290	3.57	22.0%	13.2%	95	-1.21	2.38	434	65
Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	26	SP	4.16	20.5%	8.7%	3.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	1.95	230	65
Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	22.3%	5.7%	3.0%	.262	3.13	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.44	3.13	137	65
Logan Workman R 2026 · 3.73 FIP	26	SP	3.73	21.5%	7.6%	2.7%	.278	4.96	22.7%	9.8%	65	+1.23	3.73	540	65
Nate Karns R 2027 · 4.03 FIP	27	SP	4.03	23.3%	8.9%	3.2%	.281	4.09	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.06	3.92	287	65
Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	26	SP	4.50	18.6%	7.3%	3.7%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	270	65
Cade Cavalli R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	26	SP	4.23	20.4%	8.4%	3.3%	.343	2.90	25.4%	18.0%	99	-1.33	2.85	433	64
Brad Peacock R 2028 · 3.89 FIP	28	SP-	3.89	20.9%	8.7%	2.7%	.302	3.31	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.58	2.88	533	64
Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	26	SP	3.52	18.9%	9.4%	1.5%	.264	3.82	24.9%	12.4%	117	+0.30	3.12	187	64
Mike Clevinger R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	26	SP-	3.60	26.5%	11.3%	2.4%	.274	3.13	28.3%	20.3%	368	-0.47	2.28	1,227	64
Hiram Burgos R 2027 · 3.49 FIP	27	SP	3.49	19.7%	9.5%	1.6%	.282	4.42	17.2%	8.6%	206	+0.93	3.49	355	63
Gavin Stone R 2025 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP	4.02	20.0%	6.4%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	485	63
Tyson Hardin R 2024 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	23.4%	8.3%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	2.47	177	63
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	26	SP	4.15	18.9%	7.9%	3.0%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	247	63
Mat Latos R 2027 · 3.68 FIP	27	SP	3.68	20.2%	6.3%	2.7%	.306	5.21	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.53	3.68	244	63
Hunter Dobbins R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	17.6%	8.2%	3.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	463	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	108	23.0%	8.9%	1.30	4.45
Danny Duffy ('21)	7	124	21.7%	8.1%	1.20	4.04
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	7	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
James Paxton ('24)	8	106	25.8%	7.7%	1.12	3.89
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	7	148	22.1%	8.1%	1.24	3.92
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	6	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45