Cole Henry — OGILVIE

Cole Henry P Washington Nationals

+0.0 WAR

INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

ERA4.61

FIP4.84

xFIP5.36

SIERA4.25

K%22.0%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%10.2%

IP38

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.1peak

2027

STUF5050

CTRL2525

CMD3535

K†5555

FB Velo

p4894.4

Whiff%

p5225.6%

p4621.6%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

FB+1.6 (54%)

SL-1.6 (36%)

CT-1.8 (9%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	22	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	11	10	47	183	70	12	3	29.8%	7.8%	2.6%	2.30	2.99	+1.0
2022	23	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	9	9	32	119	34	11	2	26.7%	11.6%	1.4%	1.71	3.12	+0.7
2023	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	14	10	33	148	37	16	6	18.7%	15.7%	6.0%	6.21	6.81	-0.7
2024	25	AA	Harrisburg Senators	8	5	16	74	17	14	2	17.3%	16.2%	4.0%	3.31	5.87	-0.2
2025	26	MLB	Washington Nationals	59	0	55	251	56	34	7	21.6%	12.9%	3.2%	4.12	4.66	+0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	7	0	7	34	8	4	1	—	—	—	6.43	—	—
ROS	27	MLB	WSH	12	—	12	50	11	7	2	22.3%	13.9%	3.2%	4.89	5.09	-0.0
2026 Total	27	MLB	WSH	—	—	19	84	19	11	3	22.8%	13.0%	3.1%	5.46	3.19	+0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	WSH	37	—	37	156	35	21	5	22.5%	13.3%	3.2%	4.91	5.00	-0.0
2028	29	MLB	WSH	36	—	36	152	34	20	5	22.1%	13.1%	3.2%	4.95	5.02	-0.0
2029	30	MLB	WSH	35	—	35	148	32	19	5	21.6%	13.0%	3.2%	5.01	5.08	-0.1
2030	31	MLB	WSH	34	—	34	143	30	19	5	21.1%	13.0%	3.3%	5.09	5.16	-0.1
2031	32	MLB	WSH	32	—	32	137	28	18	5	20.5%	13.2%	3.4%	5.20	5.28	-0.1
2032	33	MLB	WSH	31	—	31	130	26	17	5	19.8%	13.3%	3.5%	5.32	5.41	-0.2
2033	34	MLB	WSH	29	—	29	124	24	17	4	19.1%	13.5%	3.6%	5.46	5.55	-0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			108	34	190	809	189	100	27	23.3%	12.3%	3.4%	3.65	4.54	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—			114	36	200	852	199	105	28	23.3%	12.3%	3.4%	3.65	4.54	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Henry (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	22.3%	13.9%	3.2%	—	5.03	22.1%	9.0%	108	-0.06	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP	28	SU	4.85	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.87	18.2%	10.2%	272	-0.98	3.45	315	89
Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP	27	SU	5.16	21.1%	13.8%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.84	153	85
Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.08	3.70	187	83
Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	27	SU	4.30	20.4%	12.1%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	113	83
Grant Black R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.46	15.2%	3.1%	156	+1.00	4.46	215	83
Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 5.60 FIP	27	SU	5.60	16.4%	13.6%	3.9%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	140	83
Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	27	SU	4.34	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.29	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.05	4.00	138	83
Michael Blazek R 2026 · 4.97 FIP	27	SU	4.97	17.9%	11.9%	3.4%	.336	4.43	17.5%	8.0%	124	-0.54	3.06	221	82
David Holman R 2026 · 5.48 FIP	27	SU	5.48	15.6%	12.7%	3.8%	.324	5.48	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.00	5.37	129	82
Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP	30	SU	4.83	18.6%	12.2%	3.2%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.52	1.30	218	82
Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.26 FIP	27	SW	4.26	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.69	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.57	2.69	125	81
Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	27	SW	4.29	18.0%	12.5%	2.1%	.296	3.94	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.35	3.68	146	81
Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	17.6%	11.2%	2.8%	.309	5.45	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.87	3.47	160	81
Mason Vinyard R 2025 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	21.8%	14.5%	2.4%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	154	81
Paul Clemens R 2026 · 5.33 FIP	27	SU	5.33	14.3%	14.1%	3.0%	.310	4.55	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.78	4.49	247	81
Gregory Infante R 2027 · 4.55 FIP	28	SU	4.55	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.80	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.75	2.97	230	80
Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	28	SW	4.38	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.82	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.44	4.38	101	80
Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.97 FIP	27	SU	4.97	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.77	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.80	3.40	258	80
Julian Arballo R 2026 · 5.14 FIP	27	SW	5.14	15.1%	13.8%	2.9%	.335	4.48	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.66	4.42	214	80
Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.92 FIP	27	SW	3.92	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.45	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.53	3.42	365	80

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.