Cole Henry — OGILVIE

Cole Henry P Rochester Red Wings

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.48

FIP4.75

K%21.1%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%7.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2525

CMD3535

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p3623.3%

p4321.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.374

FB+1.6 (58%)

SI (10%)

SL-1.6 (35%)

CT-1.8 (7%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	10	47	183	70	12	3	91%	4.3	29.8%	7.8%	22.0%	2.5%	2.30	2.96	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	10	47	183	70	12	3	91%	4.3	38.3%	6.6%	31.7%	1.6%	2.30	1.72	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	32	119	34	11	2	100%	3.5	26.7%	11.6%	15.0%	1.4%	1.71	3.11	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	32	119	34	11	2	100%	3.5	28.6%	9.2%	19.3%	1.7%	1.71	2.82	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	10	33	148	37	16	6	71%	2.4	18.7%	15.7%	3.0%	5.9%	6.21	6.76	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	10	33	148	37	16	6	71%	2.4	18.7%	15.7%	3.0%	5.9%	6.21	6.76	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	10	33	148	37	16	6	71%	2.4	25.0%	10.8%	14.2%	4.1%	6.21	4.66	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	5	16	74	17	14	2	62%	2.0	17.3%	16.2%	1.0%	4.0%	3.31	5.88	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	5	16	74	17	14	2	62%	2.0	17.3%	16.2%	1.0%	4.0%	3.31	5.88	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	5	16	74	17	14	2	62%	2.0	23.0%	18.9%	4.1%	2.7%	3.31	5.18	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	55	251	56	34	7	0%	0.9	21.6%	12.9%	8.7%	2.9%	4.12	4.50	+0.0
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	55	251	56	34	7	0%	0.9	21.6%	12.9%	8.7%	2.9%	4.12	4.50	+0.0
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	55	251	56	34	7	0%	0.9	22.3%	13.5%	8.8%	2.8%	4.12	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			68	0	66	311	67	38	11	0%	1.0	21.5%	12.2%	9.3%	3.5%	5.02	4.95	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	34	2	36	166	36	9	8	6%	1.0	18.9%	5.4%	13.5%	5.2%	6.81	5.02	-0.2
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	34	2	36	166	36	9	8	6%	1.0	18.9%	5.4%	13.5%	5.2%	6.81	5.02	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	ROK RAW	WSH	1	1	1	3	2	0	0	100%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	WSH	22	1	21	93	19	2	4	5%	1.0	20.4%	2.2%	18.3%	4.3%	6.43	4.01	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	WSH	11	0	14	70	15	7	4	0%	1.2	21.4%	10.0%	11.4%	5.7%	7.90	5.69	-0.2
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	WSH	11	0	14	70	15	7	4	0%	1.2	21.4%	10.0%	11.4%	5.7%	7.90	5.69	-0.2
ROS	27	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	23	5	3	1	0%	1.1	21.1%	13.5%	7.5%	3.1%	4.48	4.75	-0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	WSH	5	0	5	21	4	3	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	13.5%	7.5%	3.1%	4.48	4.75	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	41	189	41	12	9	—	—	21.6%	6.4%	15.2%	4.6%	6.51	4.98	-0.2
FULL	27	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	19	81	41	12	9	—	—	50.7%	15.0%	35.7%	10.8%	14.01	6.66	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	WSH	68	0	72	302	66	42	10	0%	1.1	21.7%	13.7%	8.0%	3.4%	5.14	5.28	-0.6
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	65	0	68	289	61	39	10	0%	1.1	21.2%	13.6%	7.6%	3.6%	5.25	5.37	-0.6
2029	30	MLB MLE	WSH	61	0	64	271	56	37	10	0%	1.1	20.7%	13.7%	7.0%	3.7%	5.39	5.52	-0.7
2027	28	MLB CTX	WSH	65	0	68	287	62	39	10	0%	1.0	21.7%	13.7%	8.0%	3.4%	5.14	5.28	-0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	62	0	65	274	58	37	10	0%	1.0	21.2%	13.6%	7.6%	3.6%	5.25	5.37	-0.6
2029	30	MLB CTX	WSH	58	0	61	258	53	35	10	0%	1.1	20.7%	13.7%	7.0%	3.7%	5.39	5.52	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		258	0	266	1153	246	153	41	0%	1.0	21.3%	13.3%	8.0%	3.6%	5.18	4.94	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	0	200	868	185	115	31	0%	1.0	21.3%	13.3%	8.0%	3.6%	5.18	4.94	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		135	36	219	941	212	105	34	27%	1.6	22.5%	11.1%	11.4%	3.6%	4.07	4.58	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		123	33	200	861	194	96	31	27%	1.6	22.5%	11.1%	11.4%	3.6%	4.07	4.58	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Henry (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	21.7%	14.9%	3.1%	—	5.39	21.2%	7.5%	204	+0.18	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	83
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	81
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	81
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	80
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	80
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	79
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	79
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	79
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	79
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	79
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	79
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	79
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	79
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	79
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	78
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	78
Chris Beck R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	27	SU	4.82	17.4%	12.2%	3.0%	.305	5.28	18.1%	9.3%	41	+0.46	3.22	313	78
Michael Blazek R 2016 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	17.9%	11.9%	3.3%	.336	4.43	17.5%	8.0%	124	-0.49	2.99	221	77
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	77
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	68	21.3%	14.0%	1.34	5.18
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78