Nate Pearson
P
Houston Astros
Age 29
RHP
6'6" / 255 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 92
ERA4.16
FIP4.01
K%23.1%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.7
Whiff%
p4124.0%
K%
p2819.0%
xwOBA vs
p390.325
SI (2%)
CU (5%)
SL-2.2 (41%)
FB-2.8 (55%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -1.12 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.90 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 100% | 1.7 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.80 | 7.74 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 100% | 1.7 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.80 | 9.70 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 102 | 388 | 119 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 4.1 | 24.8% | 7.7% | 17.1% | 2.7% | 2.30 | 3.49 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 25 | 102 | 388 | 119 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 4.1 | 30.7% | 7.0% | 23.7% | 2.1% | 2.30 | 2.58 | — |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 5 | 4 | 18 | 81 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 80% | 3.6 | 19.8% | 16.0% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 6.00 | 6.85 | -0.5 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 5 | 4 | 18 | 81 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 80% | 3.6 | 19.8% | 16.0% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 6.00 | 7.10 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 7 | 46 | 200 | 64 | 24 | 6 | 29% | 1.9 | 29.4% | 12.3% | 17.0% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 3.77 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 7 | 46 | 200 | 64 | 24 | 6 | 29% | 1.9 | 32.0% | 12.0% | 20.0% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 3.58 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 1 | 15 | 60 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 8% | 1.2 | 31.7% | 14.7% | 17.0% | 4.9% | 3.52 | 4.96 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 1 | 15 | 60 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 8% | 1.2 | 31.7% | 13.3% | 18.3% | 3.3% | 3.52 | 3.88 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 63 | 273 | 77 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.7% | 11.6% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 3.84 | 3.99 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 63 | 273 | 77 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.2% | 11.4% | 16.8% | 2.9% | 3.84 | 3.78 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 60 | 1 | 66 | 285 | 74 | 21 | 12 | 2% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 7.4% | 18.6% | 4.1% | 4.48 | 4.10 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 60 | 1 | 66 | 285 | 74 | 21 | 12 | 2% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 7.4% | 18.6% | 4.2% | 4.48 | 4.17 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 1 | 59 | 261 | 64 | 32 | 3 | 2% | 1.2 | 21.9% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 1.1% | 3.94 | 3.45 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 1 | 59 | 261 | 64 | 32 | 3 | 2% | 1.2 | 24.5% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 1.1% | 3.94 | 3.22 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 23 | 2 | 29 | 130 | 27 | 23 | 1 | 9% | 1.2 | 19.0% | 14.3% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 4.40 | 3.95 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | HOU | 36 | 0 | 38 | 158 | 37 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.16 | 4.01 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | HOU | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 37 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.16 | 4.01 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 66 | 288 | 64 | 41 | 5 | — | — | 22.1% | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.8% | 4.26 | 3.99 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 58 | 243 | 64 | 41 | 5 | — | — | 26.2% | 16.8% | 9.4% | 2.1% | 4.91 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 52 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 48 | 0 | 50 | 213 | 47 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 49 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 45 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 269 | 6 | 313 | 1355 | 307 | 148 | 46 | 2% | 1.2 | 22.6% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 4.42 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 172 | 4 | 200 | 865 | 196 | 94 | 29 | 2% | 1.2 | 22.6% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 256 | 43 | 401 | 1692 | 422 | 181 | 50 | 17% | 1.6 | 24.9% | 10.7% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 3.77 | 3.96 | +6.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 128 | 21 | 200 | 844 | 210 | 90 | 25 | 17% | 1.6 | 24.9% | 10.7% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 3.77 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nate Pearson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 24.8% | 10.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.67 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 104 | +0.38 | — | — | — |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 73 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.80 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.81 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | +0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 72 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 71 |
| Joe Colón J R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 70 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 70 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 70 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.24 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -1.15 | 2.96 | 230 | 70 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 69 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 69 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 69 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 69 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 69 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 69 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.48 | 17.9% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .314 | 4.46 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 38 | -0.02 | 3.46 | 173 | 69 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .353 | 4.75 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 127 | +1.17 | 2.54 | 279 | 68 |
| Chris Martin R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.28 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 3.06 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.22 | 1.76 | 416 | 68 |
| John Axford R 2029 · 3.10 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.10 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .333 | 3.98 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.88 | 3.10 | 197 | 68 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 68 |
| Michael Dimock R 2025 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.34 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 166 | 68 |
| Bo Schultz R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .218 | 3.45 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.86 | 2.73 | 141 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 54 | 23.3% | 11.2% | 1.13 | 4.55 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |