Nate Pearson — OGILVIE

Nate Pearson P Kansas City Royals

Age 29 RHP 6'6" / 255 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 89

ERA4.15

FIP3.97

K%23.1%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.7

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p4721.7%

xwOBA vs

p580.304

SI (2%)

CU (5%)

SL-2.2 (41%)

FB-2.8 (55%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	20	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	1	1	1	4	2	0	0	100%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	1	1	1	4	2	0	0	100%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.90	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	1	1	2	10	1	0	1	100%	1.7	10.0%	0.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.80	7.74	—
2018	21	A+ RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	1	1	2	10	1	0	1	100%	1.7	10.0%	0.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.80	9.70	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	102	388	119	27	8	100%	4.1	24.8%	7.7%	17.1%	2.5%	2.30	3.38	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	102	388	119	27	8	100%	4.1	30.7%	7.0%	23.7%	2.1%	2.30	2.58	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	5	4	18	81	16	13	5	80%	3.6	19.8%	16.0%	3.7%	6.2%	6.00	6.85	-0.4
2020	23	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	5	4	18	81	16	13	5	80%	3.6	19.8%	16.0%	3.7%	6.2%	6.00	7.10	-0.4
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	7	46	200	64	24	6	29%	1.9	29.4%	12.3%	17.0%	3.0%	4.34	3.85	+0.4
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	7	46	200	64	24	6	29%	1.9	32.0%	12.0%	20.0%	3.0%	4.34	3.58	+0.5
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	1	15	60	19	8	2	8%	1.2	31.7%	14.7%	17.0%	4.6%	3.52	4.83	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	1	15	60	19	8	2	8%	1.2	31.7%	13.3%	18.3%	3.3%	3.52	3.88	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	63	273	77	31	8	0%	1.2	26.1%	10.8%	15.3%	3.0%	3.84	3.91	+0.5
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	63	273	77	31	8	0%	1.2	26.1%	10.8%	15.3%	3.0%	3.84	3.91	+0.5
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	63	273	77	31	8	0%	1.2	28.2%	11.4%	16.8%	2.9%	3.84	3.78	+0.6
2024	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	60	1	66	285	74	21	12	2%	1.1	26.0%	7.4%	18.6%	4.4%	4.48	4.24	+0.2
2024	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	60	1	66	285	74	21	12	2%	1.1	26.0%	7.4%	18.6%	4.4%	4.48	4.24	+0.2
2024	27	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	60	1	66	285	74	21	12	2%	1.1	26.0%	7.4%	18.6%	4.2%	4.48	4.17	+0.3
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	59	261	64	32	3	2%	1.2	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	1.2%	3.94	3.43	+0.8
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	59	261	64	32	3	2%	1.2	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	1.2%	3.94	3.43	+0.8
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	1	59	261	64	32	3	2%	1.2	24.5%	12.3%	12.3%	1.1%	3.94	3.22	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			159	6	198	860	196	89	29	4%	1.2	22.8%	10.3%	12.4%	3.4%	4.51	4.37	+0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	43	2	50	212	47	30	1	5%	1.2	21.7%	11.4%	10.2%	0.7%	2.72	3.08	+0.9
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	43	2	50	212	47	30	1	5%	1.2	21.7%	11.4%	10.2%	0.7%	2.72	3.08	+0.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AA RAW	KC	1	1	2	13	3	3	0	100%	2.0	23.1%	23.1%	0.0%	0.0%	18.00	4.07	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	KC	6	1	7	33	8	8	0	17%	1.1	24.2%	24.2%	0.0%	0.0%	2.70	4.12	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	KC	36	0	41	166	36	19	1	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.4%	10.2%	0.6%	1.98	3.05	+0.7
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	KC	36	0	41	166	36	19	1	0%	1.1	21.7%	11.4%	10.2%	0.6%	1.98	3.05	+0.7
ROS	29	MLB MLE	KC	5	0	5	20	5	2	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	10.3%	12.8%	2.8%	4.15	3.97	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	KC	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	10.3%	12.8%	2.8%	4.15	3.97	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	55	232	52	32	2	—	—	22.3%	13.8%	8.4%	0.7%	2.85	3.16	+0.9
FULL	29	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	46	194	52	32	2	—	—	26.7%	16.6%	10.1%	0.8%	3.38	3.39	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	KC	51	0	54	228	52	24	6	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.6%	12.1%	2.6%	4.30	4.31	+0.2
2028	31	MLB MLE	KC	48	0	50	213	47	23	6	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.0%	11.0%	2.8%	4.45	4.54	+0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	KC	49	0	51	215	49	23	6	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.6%	12.1%	2.6%	4.30	4.31	+0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	KC	46	0	48	203	44	22	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.0%	11.0%	2.8%	4.45	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		258	6	302	1299	294	136	41	2%	1.2	22.6%	10.5%	12.2%	3.1%	4.46	4.24	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		171	4	200	861	195	90	27	2%	1.2	22.6%	10.5%	12.2%	3.1%	4.46	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		276	43	422	1774	438	181	50	16%	1.5	24.7%	10.2%	14.5%	2.8%	3.60	3.85	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		131	20	200	841	208	86	24	16%	1.5	24.7%	10.2%	14.5%	2.8%	3.60	3.85	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nate Pearson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	24.3%	9.8%	2.9%	—	4.42	22.3%	11.5%	104	+0.14	—	—	—
Luis García R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	20.6%	10.9%	1.8%	.281	3.74	21.6%	12.6%	179	-0.01	2.33	617	75
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	74
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	73
Zach McAllister R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	29	SU	3.70	26.5%	8.4%	3.2%	.292	4.70	21.4%	16.7%	57	+1.00	2.82	363	72
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	72
Justin Miller R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SU	3.74	20.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.353	4.72	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.98	2.63	279	71
Arquimedes Caminero R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	29	SU	4.45	17.9%	11.4%	2.6%	.314	4.62	18.6%	7.5%	38	+0.17	3.54	173	71
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	71
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	71
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	70
Chris Martin R 2015 · 3.24 FIP	29	SU	3.24	18.1%	7.0%	1.4%	.319	3.04	20.9%	19.2%	42	-0.20	1.76	416	70
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	70
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	70
John Axford R 2015 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	24.8%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	3.97	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.77	3.20	197	70
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	70
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	70
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	21.9%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.09	24.6%	16.4%	87	-0.42	2.32	186	70
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	70
Kelvin Herrera R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	29	SU	3.95	22.6%	7.2%	3.4%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	297	70
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	23.0%	10.4%	1.07	4.40
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42