Nate Pearson
P
Iowa Cubs
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 29
RHP
6'6" / 255 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.71
FIP4.34
xFIP7.27
SIERA6.37
K%23.2%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%13.0%
IP39
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF5050
CTRL5050
CMD5050
K†6060
FB Velo
p9097.6
Whiff%
p1019.0%
K%
p109.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.373
SI (2%)
CU (5%)
SL-2.2 (41%)
FB-2.8 (55%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 10.80 | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 25 | 25 | 102 | 388 | 119 | 27 | 8 | 24.8% | 7.7% | 2.5% | 2.30 | 3.37 | +2.2 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 5 | 4 | 18 | 81 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 19.8% | 16.0% | 6.1% | 6.00 | 6.81 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 24 | 7 | 46 | 200 | 64 | 24 | 6 | 29.4% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 3.83 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 13 | 1 | 15 | 60 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 31.7% | 14.7% | 4.6% | 3.52 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 55 | 0 | 63 | 273 | 77 | 31 | 8 | 26.7% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 3.84 | 4.06 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 60 | 1 | 66 | 285 | 74 | 21 | 12 | 26.0% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 4.48 | 4.17 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 49 | 1 | 59 | 261 | 64 | 32 | 3 | 21.9% | 12.7% | 1.2% | 3.94 | 3.50 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 20 | — | 20 | 82 | 22 | 8 | 2 | 26.2% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 25.7% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 25.1% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 34 | 15 | 5 | 23.8% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 31 | 15 | 4 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 233 | 41 | 372 | 1562 | 397 | 162 | 48 | 25.4% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 3.72 | 3.97 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 125 | 22 | 200 | 839 | 213 | 87 | 26 | 25.4% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 3.72 | 3.97 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nate Pearson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 26.2% | 10.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.37 | 25.1% | 14.7% | 109 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 74 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 72 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 71 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 71 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.85 | 26.5% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .292 | 4.74 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 57 | +0.89 | 2.83 | 363 | 71 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 70 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 70 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 70 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 69 |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.97 | 29.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .291 | 4.69 | 29.7% | 20.4% | 117 | +0.72 | 2.67 | 382 | 69 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.05 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .329 | 3.89 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 129 | +0.84 | 3.05 | 227 | 69 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 69 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 69 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2028 · 3.11 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.81 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.70 | 3.11 | 148 | 68 |
| John Axford R 2029 · 3.28 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.28 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .333 | 3.94 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.66 | 3.28 | 197 | 68 |
| Héctor Rondón R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.94 | 29.1% | 8.4% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.8% | 15.1% | 140 | -0.04 | 2.33 | 318 | 68 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.04 | 27.4% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .280 | 4.25 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 22 | +0.21 | 3.95 | 281 | 68 |
| Michael Dimock R 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.39 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 166 | 68 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 68 |
| Alex Powers R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.22 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 264 | 68 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.