Dean Curley

SS Lake County Captains

Age 23 R/R 6'4" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#229ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ALynchburg Hil…	35	.242/.286/.273	0	1	11	—	.176/.200/.206
2026	22	AA/A+CLE	527	.257/.424/.447	17	12	96	—	.204/.339/.343
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBCLE	1	.212/.325/.355	0	0	96	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	24	MLBCLE	180	.216/.328/.367	5	3	100	0.5
2029PROJ55% MLB	25	MLBCLE	272	.219/.329/.375	8	5	102	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$4M2033Arb-2$5M2034Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Chase%88

Z-Con%79

wRC+78

wOBA73

BB%71

ISO66

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 15, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 76%

CompsBo Naylor (age 23) · Derek Norris (age 23) · Miguel Amaya (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†96

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .325 / .355

PA1

HR0

K%31

BB%13

BABIP297

ISO152

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$31M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2033	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$6M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$26M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	35	33	8	1	0	0	2	11	0	1	1	242	286	273	558	30	364	31	6	258	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	198	170	45	9	0	7	25	64	3	3	4	265	369	441	810	176	384	32	13	364	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Lake County Captains	—	329	235	59	15	1	10	82	92	8	9	1	251	458	451	910	200	360	28	25	409	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	35	34	6	1	0	0	1	15	0	1	1	176	200	206	406	29	319	43	3	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	198	177	38	7	0	5	18	78	3	3	4	215	298	339	637	124	354	39	9	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	329	258	51	12	1	8	59	117	8	9	1	198	363	345	708	147	307	36	18	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	35	34	6	1	0	0	1	15	0	1	1	176	200	206	406	29	316	43	3	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	35	33	8	1	0	0	2	11	0	1	1	242	286	273	558	30	364	31	6	258	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	527	435	90	19	1	14	77	195	11	12	5	207	340	352	692	145	332	37	15	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	527	405	104	24	1	17	107	156	11	12	5	257	424	447	871	190	370	30	20	392	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	35	34	6	1	0	0	1	15	0	1	1	176	200	206	406	29	319	43	3	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	527	434	90	19	1	14	77	195	11	12	5	207	340	353	693	145	325	37	15	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	35	34	6	1	0	0	1	15	0	1	1	176	200	206	406	29	319	43	3	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	527	434	90	19	1	14	77	195	11	12	5	207	340	353	693	145	325	37	15	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	0%	511	433	92	18	2	14	66	161	7	9	3	211	325	355	680	144	296	32	13	310	96	-3	+1	-3	+5	+11	0.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	212	325	355	680	143	297	0	0	310	96	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	38%	473	403	88	17	2	14	60	146	7	9	3	216	328	368	696	152	297	31	13	315	100	-0	+1	-2	+5	+10	1.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	55%	490	418	92	18	2	15	62	149	7	9	3	219	329	376	705	157	297	30	13	319	102	+1	+1	-2	+5	+11	1.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	64%	496	424	93	18	2	15	62	149	7	9	4	221	329	380	709	159	297	30	12	320	103	+2	+0	-2	+5	+11	1.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	66%	495	424	94	18	2	15	61	147	7	9	4	221	328	379	707	158	296	30	12	319	102	+1	+0	-2	+5	+11	1.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	67%	489	421	93	18	2	15	59	145	6	8	4	221	326	376	702	155	295	30	12	317	100	+0	+0	-2	+5	+11	1.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	66%	481	414	90	17	2	14	58	144	6	7	4	218	323	370	693	152	293	30	12	313	98	-1	-0	-3	+5	+10	1.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	71%	472	407	87	17	1	13	56	142	6	6	4	215	319	362	682	147	292	30	12	309	95	-3	-0	-4	+5	+10	0.9
2035	31	MLB MLE	CLE	74%	461	398	83	16	1	12	55	141	5	5	6	211	315	352	667	141	289	31	12	303	91	-5	-1	-4	+5	+10	0.5
2036	32	MLB MLE	CLE	77%	379	328	68	13	1	10	44	118	4	4	9	206	309	340	649	134	285	31	12	296	86	-6	-3	-5	+4	+8	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	38%	180	152	34	7	1	5	23	56	3	3	1	216	328	367	696	151	298	31	13	315	100	-0	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	55%	272	232	51	10	1	8	34	83	4	5	2	219	329	375	705	156	298	31	12	319	102	+1	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	64%	316	270	60	12	1	10	39	95	4	6	2	221	329	380	709	159	297	30	12	320	103	+1	+0	-1	+3	+7	1.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	66%	325	278	62	12	1	10	40	97	4	6	2	221	328	379	707	157	297	30	12	319	102	+1	+0	-1	+3	+7	1.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	67%	327	281	62	12	1	10	39	97	4	5	2	221	326	376	701	155	295	30	12	317	100	+0	+0	-2	+4	+7	1.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	66%	316	271	60	12	1	9	38	94	4	5	2	219	323	369	693	151	294	30	12	313	98	-1	+0	-2	+3	+7	0.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	71%	334	287	62	12	1	9	40	101	4	5	3	216	320	362	682	146	292	30	12	309	95	-2	-0	-3	+4	+7	0.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	CLE	74%	343	295	62	12	1	9	41	105	4	4	4	212	315	352	668	141	289	31	12	303	91	-4	-1	-3	+4	+7	0.4
2036	32	MLB CTX	CLE	77%	291	252	52	10	1	7	34	90	3	3	7	207	309	340	649	133	285	31	12	296	86	-5	-2	-4	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2704	2318	505	99	9	77	328	818	34	42	25	218	324	368	691	150	298	30	12	312	97	-8	-2	-17	+29	+59	6.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	557	122	24	2	19	79	197	8	10	6	219	325	372	696	153	299	30	12	312	97	-2	-0	-4	+7	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	5008	4284	922	179	17	143	622	1557	69	83	48	215	324	365	689	150	299	31	12	311	97	-12	-3	-27	+48	+96	10.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	556	120	23	2	19	81	202	9	11	6	216	325	367	692	151	299	31	12	311	97	-2	-0	-4	+7	+14	1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Lake County Captains · 329 PAwOBA .404 → .323 (−81)K% 28.0% → 35.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.96%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	35.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	24.92%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	17.91%
HBP% /PA	2.43%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	1.94%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.964	×1.012	20.71%
Doubles /BIP	10.49%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.964	×1.012	8.29%
Triples /BIP	0.70%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.964	×1.012	0.58%
Home runs /BIP	6.99%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	5.66%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .404 → .323; ISO .200 → .165; BABIP .360 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAkron RubberDucks · 198 PAwOBA .354 → .288 (−67)K% 32.3% → 39.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.32%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	39.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.63%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.042	9.21%
HBP% /PA	1.52%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	1.34%
Singles /BIP	27.36%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×1.042	26.27%
Doubles /BIP	8.49%	÷1.000	×0.860	×0.950	×1.042	7.23%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.950	×0.950	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.60%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.042	5.37%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .354 → .288; ISO .176 → .136; BABIP .384 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALynchburg Hillcats · 35 PAwOBA .251 → .184 (−67)K% 31.4% → 43.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.43%	÷0.989	×1.360	—	—	43.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.71%	÷0.975	×0.690	—	×1.015	4.11%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.00%
Singles /BIP	31.82%	÷1.071	×0.920	—	×1.015	27.74%
Doubles /BIP	4.55%	÷0.921	×0.830	—	×1.015	4.16%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.020	×0.910	—	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.184	×0.800	—	×1.015	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 114, 2B 84, 3B 104, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .251 → .184; ISO .030 → .023; BABIP .364 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Bordick'90-'03 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,484 PA	9.8	6,484	91	96	250*	311*	357*	+65	-10	12.7	14.0
/162	664	9	10	+6.7	-1.0	1.3	pk7: 15
#2Jim Lefebvre'65-'72 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,417 PA	5.1	3,417	74	8	250*	327*	411*	+11	-10	13.0	13.0
/162	664	14	2	+2.1	-2.0	2.5	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.1	2,704	78	41	218	320	369	+29	-18	9.1	8.6
/162	664	19	10	+7.1	-4.4	2.2	pk7: 8
#3Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
#4Kevin Elster'86-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,225 PA	4.9	3,225	88	14	223*	294*	388*	+34	+9	7.9	8.1
/162	664	18	3	+7.0	+1.9	1.6	pk7: 8
#5Cavan Biggiolast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,937 PA	2.9	1,937	52	33	223	339	373	+5	-8	6.8	6.8
/162	664	18	11	+1.8	-2.8	2.3	pk7: 7
#6Tim Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,743 PA	2.6	1,743	63	13	248	301	431	+19	-13	6.1	6.1
/162	664	24	5	+7.1	-4.8	2.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dean Curley (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	209/323/352	142	296	6	4	32%	13%	96	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	42→46	50→55	54→50	49	211/301/366	155	290	17	16	32%	10%	90	+0.6	217/302/391	174	272	21	10	27%	10%	96	+1.0	206/293/384	178	246	22	6	26%	10%	92	+0.5
●Derek Norris 2012 · AA	23	39→49	53→55	47→50	53	204/313/377	173	277	21	10	32%	12%	97	+1.1	230/312/390	160	287	19	10	25%	10%	99	+1.3	257/333/410	152	314	16	5	22%	9%	112	+1.6
✕Miguel Amaya 2022 · AA	23	44→43	44→50	50→40	51	216/311/333	117	280	11	7	25%	10%	86	+0.3	226/312/365	139	299	15	5	28%	9%	94	+0.9	230/302/374	144	273	16	1	22%	7%	92	+0.3
✕Aaron Luna 2010 · AA	23	41→46	50	49→45	46	207/315/368	161	265	17	8	27%	8%	97	+1.1	228/330/374	146	284	16	8	24%	9%	103	+1.6	228/337/371	143	283	17	6	24%	9%	103	+1.0
✕Henry Davis 2023 · AA	23	46→47	49→50	52→50	42	230/312/381	150	296	16	13	27%	6%	98	+1.2	223/306/371	148	287	17	12	27%	8%	93	+0.8	210/295/352	142	268	18	11	27%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Connor Norby 2023 · AAA	23	46→51	52→55	49→50	45	236/302/402	166	297	20	12	27%	7%	98	+1.2	247/306/406	159	329	18	11	29%	7%	100	+1.3	247/320/404	157	334	17	14	30%	8%	104	+1.4
●Zack Gelof 2023 · AAA	23	46→53	52→55	52→55	44	230/294/392	162	319	20	13	33%	8%	93	+0.8	234/299/408	174	324	21	23	32%	8%	99	+1.2	228/297/401	173	313	21	27	33%	8%	95	+0.8
✕Ryan Ritter 2024 · AA	23	44→48	49→50	52→50	40	214/290/365	152	331	17	14	38%	8%	86	+0.3	231/304/361	130	324	13	14	31%	7%	90	+0.6	239/315/362	122	327	11	14	28%	7%	91	+0.4
✕Agustín Ramírez 2024 · AA	22	44→48	48→55	48→55	47	226/286/366	140	275	16	10	24%	8%	84	+0.1	237/299/402	165	282	19	17	22%	7%	97	+1.1	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
✕Kevin Cornelius 2016 · A	23	44	48→65	49→40	46	225/291/366	141	295	16	6	29%	8%	85	+0.2	218/276/375	157	324	19	3	36%	7%	82	-0.0	201/257/372	171	295	21	0	38%	7%	72	-0.2
●Andy Pages 2024 · AA	23	42→52	54→60	47→50	47	218/307/400	182	287	21	9	30%	9%	100	+1.3	260/319/438	178	314	21	10	23%	7%	112	+2.2	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
✕Haydn McGeary 2024 · AA	24	48	47→50	46→45	48	234/313/369	135	313	15	7	28%	9%	95	+0.9	204/272/316	112	311	13	8	36%	8%	67	-1.1	171/234/291	120	258	16	8	39%	7%	47	-1.7
✕Tucker Mitchell 2024 · A	23	43	47→50	50→45	40	210/286/337	127	310	15	9	35%	7%	78	-0.3	198/250/292	94	278	10	7	31%	5%	53	-2.1	162/205/229	67	228	8	5	32%	4%	18	-1.7
✕Jordan Westburg 2022 · AA	23	50→51	46→60	52→50	44	236/315/373	137	345	12	12	33%	8%	96	+1.0	240/304/408	168	311	18	10	27%	7%	100	+1.3	254/308/447	193	302	23	7	24%	6%	110	+1.6
●Sean Rodríguez 2008 · AA	23	46→51	50→60	47→50	44	231/303/389	157	299	17	12	28%	7%	96	+1.0	241/313/435	194	302	23	11	27%	7%	110	+2.1	244/318/452	208	301	26	12	27%	7%	113	+1.7
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2007 · A	23	42→48	49→55	49→50	43	214/279/364	150	282	17	7	30%	7%	81	-0.1	207/261/376	169	259	21	9	28%	6%	77	-0.3	240/295/408	167	283	19	7	22%	7%	98	+0.8
✕Javier Valdes 2023 · AA	24	43	48→55	50→30	46	219/300/358	139	268	17	5	25%	7%	88	+0.5	217/301/360	143	265	16	5	24%	8%	88	+0.5	207/318/364	157	258	17	2	25%	11%	94	+0.4
●Ryan Lavarnway 2011 · AA	23	46	51→55	44→30	44	232/301/393	161	302	19	2	29%	8%	96	+1.0	237/301/389	152	290	18	2	24%	7%	95	+0.9	237/299/380	143	282	17	1	22%	7%	91	+0.5
●Dillon Dingler 2022 · AA	23	40→50	48→60	50→45	36	206/267/340	135	296	16	5	35%	5%	71	-0.8	209/277/359	150	303	17	5	35%	7%	79	-0.2	252/306/438	186	298	24	2	24%	5%	108	+1.6
✕Blaze Alexander 2023 · AAA	24	45→50	49→50	49→50	40	220/290/364	145	326	17	13	36%	7%	85	+0.2	234/312/367	133	342	14	10	33%	8%	94	+0.9	246/324/371	124	344	12	15	29%	8%	98	+0.8

Dean Curley

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps