Dean Curley — OGILVIE

Dean CurleySS Lake County Captains

Age 22 R/R 6'4" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION329 act + 219 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†102

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .340 / .364

PA219

HR6

SB5

K%32

BB%15

BABIP301

ISO154

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 46 / POW 53

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT46

scouting grade only

POWER53

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE42

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.7	$17M	+$17M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.8	$17M	+$16M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.8	$15M	+$15M
2032	Arb-1	$5M	+2.6	$13M	+$10M
2033	Arb-2	$8M	+2.4	$11M	+$7M
2034	Arb-3	$11M	+2.2	$10M	+$5M
Totals		$27M		$83M	+$70M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	35	34	6	1	0	0	1	16	0	1	1	176	200	206	406	29	333	46	3	171	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	35	33	8	1	0	0	2	11	0	1	1	242	286	273	558	30	364	31	6	258	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	CLE	—	329	259	49	12	1	8	58	124	8	9	1	189	354	336	690	147	315	38	18	313	98	-1	+1	+0	+4	+9	1.4
YTD	22	A+	CLE	—	329	235	59	15	1	10	82	92	8	9	1	251	458	451	910	200	360	28	25	409	171	+27	+1	+0	+4	+9	4.2
ROS	22	A+	CLE	0%	219	181	38	8	1	6	32	70	4	5	1	210	340	364	704	154	298	32	15	319	102	+1	+1	-2	+2	+6	0.8
ROS	22	MLB	CLE	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						298	0	0	306	92	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	22	A+	CLE	—	330	260	49	12	1	8	58	124	8	9	1	188	353	335	687	146	313	38	18	313	98	-1	+1	-0	+4	+9	1.4
TOT	22	A+	CLE	—	548	440	87	20	2	14	90	194	12	14	2	198	348	347	696	150	309	35	16	315	100	-0	+2	-2	+6	+16	2.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CLE	43%	577	478	102	21	2	15	85	182	9	11	2	213	343	360	702	146	303	32	15	322	104	+3	+1	-4	+6	+16	2.3
2028	24	MLB	CLE	58%	592	494	108	22	2	17	84	181	9	11	2	219	342	374	717	156	303	31	14	326	107	+5	+1	-4	+6	+17	2.6
2029	25	MLB	CLE	65%	598	500	110	22	2	18	84	180	9	11	2	220	342	380	722	160	303	30	14	328	109	+6	+1	-4	+6	+17	2.7
2030	26	MLB	CLE	68%	597	500	111	22	2	18	83	179	9	11	2	222	343	382	725	160	302	30	14	330	110	+7	+1	-4	+6	+17	2.8
2031	27	MLB	CLE	68%	592	495	110	22	2	18	83	178	9	11	2	222	344	384	728	162	302	30	14	330	110	+7	+1	-4	+6	+17	2.8
2032	28	MLB	CLE	68%	584	487	108	21	2	18	83	176	9	11	2	222	345	384	729	162	302	30	14	329	110	+6	+1	-5	+6	+17	2.6
2033	29	MLB	CLE	66%	575	479	105	21	2	17	82	174	9	10	2	219	344	378	722	159	301	30	14	327	108	+5	+1	-6	+6	+16	2.4
2034	30	MLB	CLE	66%	566	473	102	20	2	16	80	173	8	10	2	216	339	368	707	152	300	31	14	324	106	+4	+1	-6	+6	+16	2.2
2035	31	MLB	CLE	65%	556	464	100	20	2	16	79	172	8	9	2	216	339	371	710	155	298	31	14	321	104	+2	+1	-7	+6	+16	1.8
2036	32	MLB	CLE	65%	545	455	96	19	2	15	77	171	8	9	2	211	335	360	696	149	294	31	14	315	100	-0	+1	-8	+6	+15	1.5
2037	33	MLB	CLE	65%	471	394	81	15	2	12	67	150	7	7	1	206	331	345	676	140	290	32	14	309	95	-3	+1	-8	+5	+13	0.9
2038	34	MLB	CLE	60%	398	334	66	12	1	10	56	129	5	6	1	198	322	329	651	132	284	32	14	301	88	-5	+1	-8	+4	+11	0.3
2027	23	MLB	CLE	43%	250	207	45	9	1	7	37	79	4	5	1	217	347	372	719	155	303	32	15	310	96	-1	+1	-2	+3	+7	0.7
2028	24	MLB	CLE	58%	343	286	63	13	1	10	49	105	5	6	1	220	344	378	722	157	303	31	14	315	99	-0	+1	-3	+4	+10	1.1
2029	25	MLB	CLE	65%	388	325	71	14	2	11	54	117	6	7	1	218	340	375	716	157	303	30	14	317	101	+0	+1	-3	+4	+11	1.4
2030	26	MLB	CLE	68%	406	340	76	15	2	12	57	122	6	8	1	224	345	385	730	162	303	30	14	319	102	+1	+1	-3	+4	+12	1.5
2031	27	MLB	CLE	68%	403	337	75	15	2	12	57	121	6	8	1	223	345	386	731	163	303	30	14	319	102	+1	+1	-3	+4	+11	1.5
2032	28	MLB	CLE	68%	397	332	74	15	2	12	56	120	6	7	1	223	345	389	734	166	302	30	14	318	101	+1	+1	-3	+4	+11	1.4
2033	29	MLB	CLE	66%	382	319	69	14	1	11	54	116	6	7	1	216	340	370	710	154	302	30	14	316	100	+0	+1	-4	+4	+11	1.2
2034	30	MLB	CLE	66%	371	310	67	13	1	11	53	114	5	6	1	216	340	371	711	155	300	31	14	314	98	-1	+1	-4	+4	+11	1.1
2035	31	MLB	CLE	65%	362	303	65	13	1	10	51	112	5	6	1	215	337	363	700	149	298	31	14	310	95	-2	+1	-4	+4	+10	0.9
2036	32	MLB	CLE	65%	353	295	62	12	1	10	50	110	5	6	1	210	334	359	694	149	295	31	14	305	92	-3	+1	-5	+4	+10	0.7
2037	33	MLB	CLE	65%	304	254	52	10	1	8	43	97	4	5	1	205	329	346	675	142	290	32	14	299	87	-5	+1	-5	+3	+9	0.3
2038	34	MLB	CLE	60%	239	200	40	7	1	6	34	78	3	3	1	200	325	335	660	135	284	33	14	291	81	-5	+0	-5	+3	+7	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4199	3509	759	150	16	120	595	1291	61	74	12	216	340	371	710	154	301	31	14	312	97	-14	+10	-43	+45	+119	11.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	543	117	23	2	19	92	200	9	11	2	215	338	370	708	155	300	31	14	312	97	-2	+1	-7	+7	+18	1.8
Career	—			—	6905	5768	1243	246	24	196	976	2131	103	123	24	215	339	368	708	153	301	31	14	322	104	+34	+15	-70	+74	+196	25.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	543	116	23	2	18	92	201	10	12	2	214	338	363	701	149	300	31	14	322	104	+3	+2	-7	+7	+18	2.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	35	33	8	1	0	0	2	11	0	1	1	242	286	273	558	30	364	31	6	258	55	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dan Ugglalast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,509 PA	10	5,509	235	26	241	336	447	+20	-17	28.7	28.7
#1Dan Ugglalast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,509 PA	/162	664	28	3	241	336	447	+2.4	-2.1	3.5	pk7: 29
#2Jason Kipnislast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,984 PA	10	4,984	126	136	260	333	416	+18	-11	22.6	21.9
	/162	664	17	18	260	333	416	+2.4	-1.4	3.0	pk7: 21
#3Chris Iannettalast yr '19 career totals — 14 seasons, 4,253 PA	14	4,253	141	11	230	345	406	+76	-30	23.7	21.5
	/162	664	22	2	230	345	406	+11.9	-4.6	3.7	pk7: 19
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	4,198	120	74	217	337	372	+43	-24	19.3	16.6
	/162	664	19	12	217	337	372	+6.8	-3.7	3.0	pk7: 14
#4John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#4John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#5Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#6Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	7	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
	/162	664	21	6	245	302	422	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dean Curley (OGILVIE)	22	30→46	40→53	50	50	198/348/347	150	309	14	14	35%	16%	100	+2.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Derek Norris 2011 · A	22	41→51	50→55	44→50	53	208/315/362	154	287	18	6	32%	12%	94	+1.3	214/303/389	175	277	22	11	29%	11%	95	+1.4	261/339/417	156	319	16	5	22%	10%	113	+1.9
●Sean Rodríguez 2007 · AA	22	46→49	52→60	48→50	46	235/306/406	171	300	20	12	28%	8%	101	+1.8	230/301/408	178	293	21	10	28%	7%	99	+1.7	237/310/439	202	292	25	12	27%	7%	107	+1.7
✕Aaron Luna 2009 · A	22	42→44	50	51→45	45	210/316/367	157	290	18	7	32%	8%	96	+1.5	216/319/370	154	271	17	7	26%	8%	98	+1.6	214/320/367	152	267	17	7	25%	8%	95	+0.9
✕Jeferson Morales 2022 · A	23	41→45	48→50	48→50	48	211/295/361	150	263	15	9	26%	8%	85	+0.7	204/282/341	137	270	14	9	29%	7%	74	-0.1	221/296/357	136	275	13	8	23%	7%	81	+0.2
●Paul DeJong 2016 · A	22	50	47→60	52→45	43	247/300/387	140	314	13	13	25%	6%	92	+1.2	242/291/419	177	315	22	4	29%	5%	98	+1.6	247/312/461	214	291	28	4	26%	7%	115	+2.8
●Zach Neto 2023 · AA	22	49→48	47→60	49→55	41	242/301/379	137	306	14	12	25%	5%	92	+1.2	249/319/435	186	302	22	19	25%	6%	115	+2.7	247/321/459	212	303	27	25	27%	7%	117	+2.6
✕Kevin Cornelius 2016 · A	23	45	49→65	49→40	47	228/295/372	144	299	17	6	29%	9%	87	+0.8	221/279/391	170	332	21	3	38%	7%	85	+0.7	204/261/393	189	303	25	0	40%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Max Stassi 2013 · A	22	43	47→55	44→40	40	216/276/351	135	296	16	5	32%	6%	74	-0.1	215/261/351	136	287	16	3	30%	5%	67	-0.5	218/304/386	168	282	22	0	30%	10%	93	+0.6
●Todd Frazier 2009 · A	23	46→51	48→60	46→50	44	231/291/377	146	296	16	8	27%	7%	86	+0.8	229/281/381	152	287	16	11	25%	6%	83	+0.6	243/310/454	211	268	30	14	22%	8%	112	+2.9
●Connor Norby 2022 · A	22	48→49	42→55	48→50	45	228/302/336	108	326	10	11	31%	8%	80	+0.4	236/297/399	163	309	19	11	29%	7%	95	+1.4	245/305/413	168	324	20	11	29%	7%	99	+1.5
●Matt McLain 2022 · A	22	45→55	44→55	53→55	48	218/295/334	116	293	11	20	28%	9%	77	+0.1	236/317/422	186	323	21	22	31%	9%	109	+2.4	231/315/405	174	310	20	23	30%	9%	102	+1.7
●Graham Pauley 2023 · A	22	45→52	46→55	48→50	52	224/303/356	132	269	13	12	22%	9%	86	+0.8	237/303/415	178	282	22	11	24%	8%	102	+1.8	230/299/411	181	267	23	11	23%	8%	96	+1.1
✕Eddys Leonard 2023 · A	22	44→47	48→55	44→50	42	222/291/369	146	290	16	5	28%	6%	85	+0.7	222/279/379	157	280	19	8	27%	5%	82	+0.5	216/269/391	176	255	23	12	26%	5%	79	+0.2
✕Miguel Amaya 2021 · A	22	42	47→50	48→40	46	215/286/350	135	266	15	4	25%	7%	78	+0.2	219/309/349	130	303	13	6	30%	9%	88	+0.9	228/299/368	140	271	16	1	22%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2022 · AAA	22	43→48	48→60	46→45	43	221/271/354	133	264	16	7	24%	6%	72	-0.2	237/307/416	179	278	24	6	24%	8%	104	+2.0	240/313/432	192	282	27	4	25%	8%	109	+1.6
●Max Ramirez 2007 · A	22	50→52	45→55	45→40	51	245/322/370	126	317	13	3	26%	10%	98	+1.6	247/326/401	154	331	18	3	29%	9%	108	+2.3	241/322/397	157	324	19	2	30%	9%	104	+1.3
●Brian Goodwin 2013 · AA	22	47→53	46→60	48→50	49	229/305/362	133	299	13	13	27%	9%	89	+0.9	214/286/331	117	295	10	13	29%	9%	72	-0.2	245/312/443	198	315	23	11	28%	8%	108	+1.4
●Zack Gelof 2022 · A	22	49→50	47→55	54→55	43	236/299/379	142	334	15	17	32%	8%	90	+1.0	235/298/420	185	327	24	20	34%	8%	101	+1.8	229/294/414	185	314	24	24	33%	8%	95	+1.2
●Hunter Goodman 2022 · A	22	46→44	42→60	50→40	43	219/290/331	112	302	9	7	29%	7%	75	-0.0	208/261/404	196	274	26	4	34%	5%	82	+0.5	224/280/438	214	267	30	4	29%	6%	96	+1.1
●Gary Sánchez 2015 · AA	22	46→50	48→65	45	43	236/287/374	138	292	17	4	25%	6%	84	+0.6	249/303/435	186	293	24	6	24%	6%	107	+2.2	240/315/464	224	265	32	4	23%	9%	117	+2.4