Tucker Mitchell
1B Frisco RoughRiders| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AA/A+/ROKTEX | 242 | .200/.289/.335 | 7 | 2 | 28 | — | .152/.215/.246 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA/AATEX | 192 | .200/.225/.238 | 1 | 3 | 5 | — | .171/.193/.203 |
| 2026 | 25 | AATEX | 34 | .387/.441/.516 | 0 | 0 | 133 | — | .333/.353/.424 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBTEX | 2 | .191/.226/.258 | 0 | 0 | 34 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 27 | MLBTEX | 43 | .193/.230/.263 | 0 | 1 | 37 | -0.3 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 57 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 298 | 340 | 638 | 140 | 250 | 23 | 9 | 292 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 163 | 135 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 52 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 185 | 325 | 319 | 644 | 133 | 266 | 32 | 12 | 303 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 26 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 269 | 375 | 644 | 167 | 286 | 35 | 4 | 289 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 213 | 182 | 47 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 24 | 52 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 258 | 357 | 440 | 797 | 181 | 306 | 24 | 11 | 352 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 100 | 80 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 338 | 465 | 487 | 952 | 150 | 446 | 23 | 12 | 426 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | INTL | Melbourne Aces | — | 24 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 250 | 217 | 467 | 227 | 4 | 4 | 218 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 78 | 70 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 192 | 143 | 335 | 43 | 130 | 21 | 9 | 167 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 117 | 104 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 282 | 308 | 590 | 115 | 230 | 23 | 10 | 272 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 47 | 41 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 390 | 468 | 732 | 1.200 | 341 | 414 | 17 | 9 | 515 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 22 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 95 | 50 | 145 | 83 | 41 | 5 | 73 | -70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 170 | 165 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 49 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 218 | 241 | 261 | 502 | 42 | 304 | 29 | 1 | 229 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 34 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 387 | 441 | 516 | 957 | 129 | 414 | 6 | 9 | 426 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 57 | 52 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 135 | 211 | 250 | 461 | 115 | 193 | 33 | 5 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 163 | 141 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 70 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 142 | 258 | 241 | 499 | 99 | 242 | 43 | 9 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 26 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 231 | 333 | 564 | 167 | 216 | 50 | 4 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 213 | 193 | 40 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 70 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 207 | 271 | 358 | 629 | 150 | 261 | 33 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 100 | 84 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 274 | 384 | 369 | 753 | 95 | 406 | 31 | 8 | 346 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 78 | 72 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 97 | 167 | 139 | 306 | 42 | 118 | 24 | 6 | 133 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 117 | 109 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 205 | 220 | 425 | 73 | 200 | 31 | 6 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 47 | 43 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 256 | 319 | 488 | 808 | 233 | 305 | 26 | 4 | 350 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 22 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 95 | 50 | 145 | 77 | 45 | 5 | 65 | -70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 170 | 166 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 62 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 187 | 206 | 223 | 429 | 36 | 296 | 36 | 1 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 34 | 33 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 333 | 353 | 424 | 777 | 91 | 369 | 6 | 3 | 365 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 57 | 52 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 135 | 211 | 250 | 461 | 115 | 188 | 33 | 5 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK RAW | ACL Rangers | — | 57 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 298 | 340 | 638 | 140 | 250 | 23 | 9 | 292 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 189 | 166 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 83 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 139 | 243 | 241 | 484 | 102 | 241 | 44 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 189 | 159 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 61 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 189 | 317 | 327 | 645 | 138 | 269 | 32 | 11 | 301 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 337 | 298 | 68 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 108 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 228 | 309 | 366 | 675 | 138 | 315 | 32 | 7 | 299 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 337 | 285 | 79 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 76 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 277 | 381 | 435 | 816 | 158 | 337 | 23 | 11 | 364 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 242 | 224 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 67 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 156 | 219 | 254 | 473 | 98 | 197 | 28 | 6 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 242 | 215 | 43 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 51 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 289 | 335 | 624 | 135 | 229 | 21 | 10 | 286 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 192 | 186 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 71 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 172 | 194 | 204 | 398 | 32 | 270 | 37 | 1 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 192 | 185 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 58 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 200 | 225 | 238 | 463 | 38 | 283 | 30 | 2 | 211 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 34 | 33 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 333 | 353 | 424 | 777 | 91 | 355 | 6 | 3 | 365 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 34 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 387 | 441 | 516 | 957 | 129 | 414 | 6 | 9 | 426 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 57 | 52 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 135 | 211 | 250 | 461 | 115 | 193 | 33 | 5 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 189 | 164 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 83 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 140 | 243 | 244 | 487 | 104 | 238 | 44 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 337 | 299 | 68 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 108 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 227 | 309 | 365 | 674 | 137 | 307 | 32 | 7 | 299 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 242 | 222 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 67 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 158 | 219 | 257 | 476 | 99 | 194 | 28 | 6 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 192 | 185 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 71 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 173 | 194 | 205 | 399 | 32 | 271 | 37 | 1 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 34 | 33 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 333 | 353 | 424 | 777 | 91 | 369 | 6 | 3 | 365 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 242 | 222 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 67 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 158 | 219 | 257 | 476 | 99 | 194 | 28 | 6 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 192 | 185 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 71 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 173 | 194 | 205 | 399 | 32 | 271 | 37 | 1 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 34 | 33 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 333 | 353 | 424 | 777 | 91 | 369 | 6 | 3 | 365 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | TEX | 2% | 200 | 190 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 59 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 192 | 226 | 259 | 485 | 67 | 268 | 30 | 3 | 219 | 34 | -16 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +4 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | TEX | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 191 | 226 | 258 | 484 | 67 | 267 | 50 | 0 | 219 | 34 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | TEX | 27% | 162 | 153 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 47 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 193 | 230 | 263 | 493 | 70 | 269 | 29 | 4 | 223 | 37 | -12 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +4 | -1.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | TEX | 27% | 43 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 193 | 230 | 263 | 493 | 70 | 268 | 30 | 2 | 223 | 37 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 43 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 209 | 238 | 447 | 48 | 276 | 30 | 2 | 223 | 45 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 635 | 121 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 197 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 191 | 209 | 238 | 447 | 47 | 276 | 30 | 2 | 223 | 45 | -49 | +3 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -4.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1318 | 1212 | 225 | 34 | 5 | 23 | 67 | 428 | 32 | 23 | 5 | 186 | 247 | 279 | 526 | 93 | 263 | 32 | 5 | 234 | 45 | -20 | +0 | +0 | -5 | +6 | -1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 110 | 17 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 211 | 16 | 11 | 2 | 184 | 246 | 274 | 520 | 90 | 261 | 32 | 5 | 234 | 45 | -50 | +1 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -4.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 34 PAwOBA .406 → .365 (−42)K% 5.9% → 7.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 7.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 25.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 11.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .406 → .365; ISO .129 → .113; BABIP .414 → .369. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 170 PAwOBA .222 → .191 (−31)K% 28.8% → 36.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.82% | ÷0.971 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.18% | ÷1.080 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 0.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.76% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.72% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | ×1.029 | ×1.012 | 26.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷0.968 | ×0.840 | ×1.029 | ×1.012 | 3.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.940 | ×1.029 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.86% | ÷0.976 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.72% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 95, 2B 94, 3B 84, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .222 → .191; ISO .042 → .033; BABIP .304 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAARound Rock Express · 22 PAwOBA .075 → .065 (−10)K% 40.9% → 45.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.91% | ÷1.086 | ×1.200 | — | — | 45.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.55% | ÷0.962 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 3.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.053 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 8.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.881 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 111, 2B 76, 3B 84, K 117, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .075 → .065; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .083 → .077. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Hickory Crawdads · 117 PAwOBA .266 → .203 (−63)K% 23.1% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.08% | ÷0.988 | ×1.310 | — | — | 30.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.26% | ÷1.019 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 6.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.026 | ×0.870 | ×1.049 | ×0.998 | 16.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.90% | ÷0.994 | ×0.780 | ×1.049 | ×0.998 | 3.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.850 | ×1.049 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.90% | ÷1.014 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.37% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 105, 2B 99, 3B 103, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .266 → .203; ISO .115 → .094; BABIP .230 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 78 PAwOBA .164 → .133 (−30)K% 20.5% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.51% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.97% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.26% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×1.027 | 8.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.85% | ÷1.012 | ×0.840 | ×1.006 | ×1.027 | 1.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.85% | ÷1.138 | ×0.940 | ×1.006 | ×1.027 | 1.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 128, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .164 → .133; ISO .043 → .036; BABIP .130 → .118. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Rangers · 47 PAwOBA .500 → .350 (−150)K% 17.0% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.02% | ÷0.993 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.51% | ÷0.971 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 5.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.26% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 2.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.30% | ÷1.014 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 23.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷1.011 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 4.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.12% | ÷1.040 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 8.77% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 99, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .500 → .350; ISO .341 → .235; BABIP .414 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hickory Crawdads · 213 PAwOBA .345 → .277 (−68)K% 24.4% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.41% | ÷0.974 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 6.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.88% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 1.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.38% | ÷1.040 | ×0.870 | ×1.019 | ×1.012 | 21.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.08% | ÷0.960 | ×0.780 | ×1.019 | ×1.012 | 2.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.77% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.019 | ×1.012 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.92% | ÷0.948 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 6.51% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 108, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .345 → .277; ISO .181 → .162; BABIP .306 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ADown East Wood Ducks · 100 PAwOBA .420 → .346 (−73)K% 23.0% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.00% | ÷1.022 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.00% | ÷0.971 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 5.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×0.985 | — | 30.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷0.914 | ×0.830 | ×0.985 | — | 9.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.910 | ×0.985 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.51% | ÷1.082 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.59% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 83, 3B 125, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .420 → .346; ISO .150 → .119; BABIP .446 → .406. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).