Tucker Mitchell — OGILVIE

Tucker MitchellC Frisco RoughRiders

Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 210 lbs AA K +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.2 · 2028

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .242 / .284

PA209

HR4

K%33

BB%5

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

35→35

PWR

25→25

SPD

45→45

EYE

35↘20

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.2peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$-7M	-$9M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	20	ROK	ACL Rangers	57	52	8	1	1	1	3	19	2	1	0	.154	.228	.269	.497	.115	.219	33	5	.184	-1	-7	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.4
2022	21	A	2 teams	189	167	23	3	1	4	13	86	9	8	2	.138	.238	.240	.478	.102	.247	46	7	.213	21	-17	+1	+0	+3	+5	-0.7
2023	22	A+	3 teams	337	299	68	9	1	10	23	109	11	5	1	.227	.306	.365	.671	.137	.315	32	7	.296	85	-6	+1	+0	+6	+10	1.1
2024	23	A+	3 teams	242	224	34	4	1	5	14	68	4	2	0	.152	.215	.246	.460	.094	.192	28	6	.209	18	-22	+0	+0	+4	+7	-1.1
2025	24	AA	2 teams	192	186	31	3	0	1	2	77	3	3	0	.167	.188	.199	.387	.032	.275	40	1	.170	-12	-24	+1	+0	+3	+5	-1.5
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	25	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	34	33	12	4	0	0	1	3	0	0	1	.364	.382	.485	.867	.121	.400	9	3	.373	144	+2	-0	+0	+1	+1	0.3
ROS	25	MLB	TEX	175	163	35	6	1	3	8	55	2	2	1	.215	.260	.319	.579	.104	.289	31	5	.250	50	-10	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.2
TOT	25	MLB	TEX	209	196	47	10	1	3	9	58	2	2	2	.240	.280	.347	.627	.107	.324	28	4	.270	65	-8	-0	+0	+4	+6	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 11%	TEX	302	278	60	10	1	6	17	90	4	4	1	.216	.271	.324	.595	.108	.289	30	6	.263	59	-14	+0	+0	+5	+9	0.1
2028	27	MLB 26%	TEX	342	315	68	12	1	7	20	100	4	4	1	.216	.271	.327	.598	.111	.289	29	6	.268	63	-14	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.2
2029	28	MLB 38%	TEX	366	336	72	13	1	7	22	107	5	5	1	.214	.273	.321	.594	.107	.289	29	6	.269	64	-15	+1	-1	+7	+10	0.2
2030	29	MLB 47%	TEX	372	341	73	13	1	7	23	109	5	4	1	.214	.274	.320	.593	.106	.289	29	6	.269	64	-15	+0	-1	+7	+11	0.1
2031	30	MLB 56%	TEX	377	345	73	13	1	7	24	112	5	4	1	.212	.273	.316	.589	.104	.287	30	6	.266	61	-16	+0	-2	+7	+11	-0.1
2032	31	MLB 66%	TEX	354	325	68	12	1	6	22	106	4	3	1	.209	.268	.308	.575	.098	.286	30	6	.262	59	-17	+0	-3	+6	+10	-0.3
2033	32	MLB 84%	TEX	327	300	63	11	1	6	20	100	4	2	0	.210	.269	.313	.582	.103	.284	31	6	.257	55	-17	+0	-4	+6	+9	-0.5
2034	33	MLB	TEX	291	268	54	9	1	5	18	91	3	2	0	.201	.260	.299	.558	.097	.283	31	6	.252	51	-16	+0	-4	+5	+8	-0.7
2035	34	MLB	TEX	244	224	45	7	1	4	15	78	3	2	0	.201	.260	.295	.555	.094	.281	32	6	.246	46	-15	+0	-5	+4	+7	-0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4167	3823	775	126	14	79	244	1307	68	51	10	.203	.263	.305	.568	.102	.283	31	6	.254	52	-224	+6	-20	+74	+118	-4.6
/ 162G	—			650	596	121	20	2	12	38	204	11	8	2	.203	.264	.304	.567	.101	.285	31	6	.254	52	-35	+1	-3	+12	+18	-0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	20	ROK	ACL Rangers	57	50	10	2	1	1	5	13	2	1	0	.200	.298	.340	.638	.140	.250	23	9	.292	82	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2022	21	A	Down East Wood Ducks	163	135	25	4	1	4	20	52	8	8	2	.185	.325	.319	.644	.133	.266	32	12	.303	90	-2	+1	—	—	+5	0.4
2022	21	ROK	ACL Rangers	26	24	5	1	0	1	1	9	1	0	0	.208	.269	.375	.644	.167	.286	35	4	.289	79	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2023	22	A+	Hickory Crawdads	213	182	47	4	1	9	24	52	4	2	0	.258	.357	.440	.797	.181	.306	24	11	.352	128	+7	+0	—	—	+6	1.3
2023	22	A	Down East Wood Ducks	100	80	27	6	0	2	12	23	7	3	1	.338	.465	.487	.952	.150	.446	23	12	.426	184	+9	+0	—	—	+3	1.3
2023	22	INTL	Melbourne Aces	24	23	5	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	.217	.250	.217	.467	.000	.227	4	4	.218	25	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	78	70	7	1	1	0	7	16	1	0	0	.100	.192	.143	.335	.043	.130	21	9	.167	-14	-10	+0	—	—	+2	-0.8
2024	23	A+	Hickory Crawdads	117	104	20	3	0	3	12	27	1	1	0	.192	.282	.308	.590	.115	.230	23	10	.272	67	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1
2024	23	ROK	ACL Rangers	47	41	16	2	0	4	4	8	2	1	0	.390	.468	.732	1.200	.341	.414	17	9	.515	252	+8	+0	—	—	+1	1.0
2025	24	AAA	Round Rock Express	22	20	1	0	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	.050	.095	.050	.145	.000	.083	41	5	.073	-86	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2025	24	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	170	165	36	4	0	1	2	49	3	3	0	.218	.241	.261	.502	.042	.304	29	1	.229	33	-13	+1	—	—	+5	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tucker Mitchell (OGILVIE)	25	35	25	45	20	.193/.242/.284	.091	.277	4	3	33%	5%	42	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rylan Sandoval 2013 · AA	25	39	41→40	45	36	.193/.251/.293	.100	.287	9	5	35%	5%	48	-1.9	.216/.266/.305	.089	.313	7	8	31%	5%	56	-1.3	.221/.270/.295	.074	.319	5	8	31%	5%	52	-0.6
✕Anthony Mulrine 2023 · AAA	25	37	38→40	45→40	39	.179/.256/.255	.076	.265	6	5	33%	6%	41	-2.3	.189/.268/.274	.085	.271	7	6	31%	7%	51	-1.7	.144/.247/.211	.068	.201	5	0	28%	8%	25	-0.8
✕Trevor Schwecke 2023 · AAA	25	40	43→45	42→50	39	.196/.257/.308	.111	.294	11	7	36%	7%	54	-1.4	.222/.280/.337	.115	.319	10	13	32%	7%	71	-0.3	.230/.289/.344	.113	.326	10	17	30%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Steven Baron 2016 · AAA	25	43	38→45	51→50	40	.208/.252/.292	.085	.285	5	9	28%	5%	46	-2.0	.227/.285/.303	.076	.312	6	6	27%	7%	64	-0.8	.220/.281/.276	.057	.306	5	2	28%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	35	41→45	50→45	39	.177/.239/.273	.095	.270	8	7	36%	7%	37	-2.6	.200/.266/.312	.112	.290	11	7	33%	7%	59	-1.1	.191/.265/.302	.110	.270	10	5	31%	8%	52	-0.8
✕Max Burt 2022 · AAA	25	40	42→45	48→55	36	.201/.246/.303	.102	.283	11	8	32%	5%	48	-1.9	.195/.249/.317	.122	.283	14	20	35%	6%	53	-1.5	.172/.233/.265	.093	.260	10	26	36%	6%	31	-1.4
✕Jacob Nottingham 2020 · MLB	25	37→47	43→45	48→50	37	.186/.255/.296	.110	.281	10	9	36%	6%	51	-1.7	.202/.271/.348	.146	.295	18	11	36%	6%	72	-0.2	.185/.263/.338	.153	.248	21	12	34%	6%	63	-0.4
✕Jean Luc Blaquiere 2011 · AAA	25	39	40	41→45	37	.192/.244/.281	.089	.285	8	4	35%	6%	41	-2.3	.204/.274/.292	.088	.296	7	5	31%	8%	57	-1.2	.208/.316/.291	.083	.276	7	0	24%	11%	72	-0.0
✕Dennis Ortega 2022 · AAA	25	41	38→45	47→45	39	.198/.245/.273	.076	.278	6	5	30%	5%	40	-2.4	.209/.262/.300	.091	.321	8	9	35%	6%	53	-1.5	.190/.244/.262	.072	.305	5	10	37%	6%	32	-0.9
✕Grayson Greiner 2018 · AAA	25	41	43→45	47→30	40	.206/.257/.315	.109	.282	11	3	30%	6%	56	-1.3	.211/.274/.326	.115	.286	12	3	29%	8%	66	-0.6	.197/.268/.288	.091	.290	9	0	33%	8%	51	-0.7
✕Osvaldo Abreu 2019 · AA	25	41→47	40	43→50	39	.201/.249/.292	.092	.276	8	7	30%	5%	46	-2.0	.197/.252/.289	.092	.300	8	8	35%	6%	46	-2.0	.185/.245/.258	.073	.302	5	8	38%	6%	32	-1.2
✕John Murrian 2013 · AAA	25	42	42→45	47→45	37	.207/.248/.310	.103	.286	9	5	30%	4%	50	-1.8	.200/.260/.308	.108	.269	10	6	28%	6%	56	-1.3	.151/.227/.251	.100	.198	10	0	29%	6%	25	-1.0
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2008 · AAA	25	37	38→45	45→40	38	.183/.237/.261	.078	.264	5	4	31%	5%	33	-2.9	.204/.256/.283	.079	.285	7	4	29%	5%	46	-2.0	.210/.275/.291	.081	.289	7	0	28%	7%	55	-0.6
✕Javi Herrera 2006 · AA	25	43	42→40	43→45	38	.210/.263/.314	.104	.278	9	7	27%	4%	59	-1.1	.214/.282/.308	.094	.270	8	6	23%	6%	66	-0.6	.200/.294/.282	.082	.251	8	5	22%	9%	63	-0.3
✕Jayson Langfels 2014 · AA	25	42→32	43→40	46→50	37	.201/.264/.310	.109	.312	11	11	37%	6%	58	-1.2	.206/.279/.294	.088	.335	7	14	38%	7%	60	-1.0	.202/.285/.272	.070	.341	4	17	38%	8%	54	-0.8
✕Nick Meyer 2022 · AAA	25	41	38→40	48→50	43	.200/.261/.271	.071	.264	6	13	26%	6%	46	-2.0	.216/.288/.312	.096	.280	10	15	25%	8%	69	-0.4	.201/.280/.289	.088	.259	11	18	25%	9%	56	-0.6
✕Jose Martinez 2015 · AAA	25	43	42→45	45→30	36	.212/.261/.311	.099	.289	11	6	30%	4%	56	-1.3	.206/.252/.303	.097	.306	9	4	34%	4%	50	-1.7	.206/.252/.305	.099	.309	8	1	34%	4%	48	-1.0
✕Chad Spann 2009 · AAA	25	42→37	42→45	39→40	38	.208/.257/.309	.101	.290	10	4	31%	5%	53	-1.5	.194/.241/.273	.079	.272	7	6	30%	5%	37	-2.6	.163/.208/.201	.038	.230	2	0	29%	4%	1	-1.8
✕Zach Remillard 2019 · A	25	38→48	42→40	43→55	33	.195/.231/.294	.099	.279	10	6	34%	4%	38	-2.6	.203/.256/.292	.089	.302	9	9	34%	5%	50	-1.8	.210/.281/.301	.091	.284	9	21	27%	7%	60	-0.7
✕Jesse Hodges 2019 · AA	25	41→44	41→40	42→40	37	.199/.248/.295	.096	.291	8	4	33%	5%	46	-2.0	.194/.246/.292	.098	.290	8	6	34%	5%	45	-2.1	.151/.206/.234	.083	.222	7	0	34%	3%	12	-1.0

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)