Chandler Seagle
C Columbus Clingstones| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 27 | AAA/AASD | 251 | .209/.263/.296 | 3 | 4 | 21 | — | .175/.219/.239 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAASD | 107 | .180/.219/.280 | 1 | 0 | -8 | — | .137/.162/.216 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA/AAATL | 176 | .166/.223/.221 | 0 | 1 | -7 | — | .133/.183/.175 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 31 | MLBATL | 2 | .184/.243/.286 | 0 | 0 | 49 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 32 | MLBATL | 23 | .181/.241/.279 | 0 | 0 | 46 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 28 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 148 | 148 | 185 | 333 | 37 | 250 | 43 | 0 | 143 | -47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 27 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 148 | 42 | 190 | 83 | 44 | 7 | 112 | -61 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 23 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 227 | 318 | 545 | 91 | 278 | 22 | 0 | 230 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | ROK | AZL Padres 1 | — | 109 | 94 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 223 | 324 | 351 | 675 | 128 | 308 | 27 | 11 | 307 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 181 | 158 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 190 | 260 | 266 | 526 | 76 | 254 | 25 | 4 | 235 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 32 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 281 | 400 | 681 | 167 | 286 | 25 | 3 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 275 | 239 | 50 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 73 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 289 | 297 | 587 | 88 | 287 | 27 | 9 | 263 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 64 | 60 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 233 | 270 | 367 | 637 | 133 | 353 | 38 | 5 | 279 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 187 | 170 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 55 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 200 | 261 | 271 | 531 | 71 | 284 | 29 | 5 | 242 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 107 | 100 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 180 | 219 | 280 | 499 | 100 | 288 | 37 | 5 | 221 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 54 | 52 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 241 | 269 | 510 | 58 | 306 | 30 | 2 | 232 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | — | 122 | 111 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 42 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 144 | 215 | 198 | 413 | 54 | 229 | 34 | 5 | 196 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 28 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 111 | 148 | 259 | 37 | 225 | 61 | 0 | 98 | -47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 27 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 111 | 40 | 151 | 77 | 59 | 4 | 78 | -61 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 23 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 182 | 273 | 455 | 91 | 233 | 30 | 0 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | ROK MLE | AZL Padres 1 | — | 109 | 99 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 42 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 152 | 222 | 242 | 465 | 91 | 229 | 39 | 6 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 181 | 160 | 29 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 58 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 181 | 243 | 256 | 499 | 75 | 246 | 32 | 3 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 275 | 246 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 88 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 191 | 252 | 268 | 520 | 77 | 269 | 32 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 64 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 197 | 222 | 279 | 501 | 82 | 330 | 45 | 3 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 187 | 173 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 68 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 168 | 217 | 225 | 443 | 58 | 253 | 36 | 4 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 107 | 102 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 137 | 162 | 216 | 378 | 78 | 246 | 47 | 3 | 157 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 54 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 173 | 204 | 212 | 415 | 38 | 268 | 37 | 2 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AA MLE | Columbus Clingstones | — | 122 | 113 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 51 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 115 | 174 | 159 | 333 | 44 | 200 | 42 | 3 | 151 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 28 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 111 | 148 | 259 | 37 | 273 | 61 | 0 | 98 | -47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A RAW | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 28 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 148 | 148 | 185 | 333 | 37 | 250 | 43 | 0 | 143 | -47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 27 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 111 | 40 | 151 | 111 | 59 | 4 | 78 | -61 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 22 | A RAW | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 27 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 148 | 42 | 190 | 83 | 44 | 7 | 112 | -61 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 23 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 132 | 121 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 49 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 149 | 208 | 231 | 439 | 83 | 233 | 37 | 5 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 132 | 116 | 26 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 308 | 345 | 653 | 121 | 301 | 26 | 9 | 293 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 213 | 190 | 34 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 68 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 179 | 239 | 247 | 486 | 68 | 268 | 32 | 3 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 213 | 188 | 37 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 53 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 197 | 263 | 287 | 551 | 90 | 259 | 25 | 4 | 245 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 275 | 246 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 88 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 191 | 252 | 268 | 520 | 77 | 282 | 32 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA RAW | San Antonio Missions | — | 275 | 239 | 50 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 73 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 289 | 297 | 587 | 88 | 287 | 27 | 9 | 263 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 251 | 233 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 97 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 172 | 219 | 232 | 450 | 60 | 279 | 39 | 4 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 251 | 230 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 79 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 209 | 263 | 296 | 559 | 87 | 300 | 31 | 5 | 251 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 107 | 102 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 137 | 162 | 216 | 378 | 78 | 255 | 47 | 3 | 157 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA RAW | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 107 | 100 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 180 | 219 | 280 | 499 | 100 | 288 | 37 | 5 | 221 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 176 | 166 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 70 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 133 | 177 | 175 | 352 | 42 | 227 | 40 | 2 | 159 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 176 | 163 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 58 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 166 | 223 | 221 | 444 | 55 | 255 | 33 | 4 | 207 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 28 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 107 | 111 | 143 | 254 | 36 | 225 | 61 | 0 | 98 | -47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 27 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 111 | 40 | 151 | 77 | 59 | 4 | 78 | -61 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 23 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 132 | 122 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 49 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 148 | 208 | 230 | 437 | 82 | 230 | 37 | 5 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 213 | 196 | 34 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 68 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 173 | 239 | 240 | 479 | 66 | 246 | 32 | 3 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 275 | 253 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 88 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 186 | 252 | 261 | 513 | 75 | 269 | 32 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 251 | 235 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 97 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 170 | 219 | 230 | 448 | 60 | 273 | 39 | 4 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 107 | 103 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 136 | 162 | 214 | 375 | 78 | 246 | 47 | 3 | 157 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 176 | 165 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 70 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 133 | 177 | 176 | 353 | 42 | 221 | 40 | 2 | 159 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 107 | 103 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 136 | 162 | 214 | 375 | 78 | 246 | 47 | 3 | 157 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 176 | 165 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 70 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 133 | 177 | 176 | 353 | 42 | 221 | 40 | 2 | 159 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB MLE | ATL | 2% | 226 | 207 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 67 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 184 | 243 | 286 | 529 | 102 | 247 | 30 | 6 | 240 | 49 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB CTX | ATL | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 243 | 286 | 529 | 102 | 247 | 50 | 0 | 240 | 49 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 32 | MLB MLE | ATL | 23% | 102 | 94 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 181 | 241 | 279 | 520 | 98 | 245 | 29 | 6 | 236 | 46 | -7 | +0 | -4 | +2 | +2 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB CTX | ATL | 23% | 23 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 181 | 241 | 279 | 520 | 98 | 245 | 30 | 4 | 236 | 46 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 23 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 217 | 227 | 445 | 45 | 267 | 30 | 4 | 236 | 21 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 622 | 113 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 198 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 217 | 227 | 444 | 45 | 267 | 30 | 4 | 236 | 21 | -42 | +0 | -22 | +12 | +14 | -3.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1430 | 1314 | 215 | 53 | 1 | 12 | 61 | 520 | 26 | 11 | 8 | 164 | 216 | 233 | 448 | 69 | 256 | 36 | 4 | 199 | 21 | -14 | +0 | -4 | +4 | +5 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 97 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 236 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 162 | 215 | 228 | 443 | 65 | 255 | 36 | 4 | 199 | 21 | -41 | +1 | -10 | +12 | +14 | -2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAColumbus Clingstones · 122 PAwOBA .193 → .151 (−41)K% 34.4% → 41.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.43% | ÷1.011 | ×1.220 | — | — | 41.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.92% | ÷1.036 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.958 | 3.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.28% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.958 | 2.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.49% | ÷1.038 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×0.958 | 12.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.951 | ×0.910 | ×1.002 | ×0.958 | 7.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.108 | ×0.880 | ×1.002 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.934 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 108, 2B 90, 3B 122, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .193 → .151; ISO .054 → .046; BABIP .229 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 54 PAwOBA .226 → .176 (−49)K% 29.6% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.63% | ÷0.976 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.85% | ÷1.140 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 1.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.968 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.982 | 20.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.162 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.982 | 5.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.961 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 95, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .226 → .176; ISO .058 → .037; BABIP .306 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 107 PAwOBA .215 → .157 (−58)K% 37.4% → 46.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.38% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 46.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.67% | ÷1.026 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 3.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | ×1.009 | ×0.992 | 15.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.67% | ÷1.053 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×0.992 | 9.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.970 | ×1.009 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.078 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.07% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 105, 2B 111, 3B 99, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .215 → .157; ISO .100 → .067; BABIP .288 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASan Antonio Missions · 187 PAwOBA .238 → .195 (−43)K% 29.4% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.41% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.35% | ÷0.927 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 3.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.14% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 1.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×0.978 | 20.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.09% | ÷1.116 | ×0.840 | ×1.017 | ×0.978 | 4.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.87% | ÷1.010 | ×0.940 | ×1.017 | ×0.978 | 0.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.87% | ÷0.820 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.83% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 97, 2B 123, 3B 102, K 97, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .238 → .195; ISO .071 → .055; BABIP .284 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 64 PAwOBA .271 → .212 (−59)K% 37.5% → 45.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.50% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 45.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.69% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 3.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.78% | ÷0.958 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 27.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 4.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.71% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .271 → .212; ISO .133 → .086; BABIP .353 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AASan Antonio Missions · 275 PAwOBA .257 → .226 (−31)K% 26.5% → 32.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.55% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.73% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.09% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.08% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×1.049 | ×0.988 | 20.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.23% | ÷1.035 | ×0.840 | ×1.049 | ×0.988 | 6.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.035 | ×0.940 | ×1.049 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.81% | ÷0.870 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.64% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 107, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .257 → .226; ISO .088 → .077; BABIP .287 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AASan Antonio Missions · 181 PAwOBA .231 → .209 (−22)K% 24.9% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.86% | ÷0.949 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.87% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 2.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.42% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 3.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.70% | ÷0.989 | ×0.940 | ×1.024 | ×0.998 | 17.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.96% | ÷0.925 | ×0.870 | ×1.024 | ×0.998 | 7.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.071 | ×0.920 | ×1.024 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.88% | ÷0.868 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.79% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 98, 2B 85, 3B 114, K 90, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .231 → .209; ISO .076 → .071; BABIP .254 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKAZL Padres 1 · 109 PAwOBA .302 → .197 (−105)K% 26.6% → 38.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.61% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 6.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.83% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 13.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 9.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 1.16% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .302 → .197; ISO .128 → .082; BABIP .308 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .