Jeff Arnold
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 28 | AASF | 182 | .220/.285/.341 | 3 | 1 | 32 | — | .178/.223/.266 |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA/AASF | 257 | .183/.292/.338 | 7 | 0 | 30 | — | .143/.221/.265 |
| 2018 | 30 | AAA/AA/A+SF | 235 | .173/.268/.257 | 3 | 0 | 8 | — | .133/.202/.191 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 23 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 303 | 268 | 57 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 80 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 213 | 294 | 340 | 634 | 127 | 279 | 26 | 8 | 286 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 39 | 35 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 429 | 474 | 543 | 1.017 | 114 | 556 | 23 | 3 | 443 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 275 | 240 | 57 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 72 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 237 | 325 | 362 | 687 | 125 | 327 | 26 | 8 | 309 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 396 | 350 | 88 | 26 | 4 | 13 | 38 | 116 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 251 | 335 | 460 | 795 | 209 | 336 | 29 | 10 | 350 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 82 | 68 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 370 | 382 | 753 | 132 | 386 | 29 | 12 | 341 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 182 | 164 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 220 | 285 | 341 | 626 | 122 | 297 | 29 | 7 | 279 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 36 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 222 | 294 | 516 | 118 | 278 | 42 | 6 | 233 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 221 | 185 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 70 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 184 | 304 | 346 | 650 | 162 | 250 | 32 | 13 | 293 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 48 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 119 | 229 | 143 | 372 | 24 | 238 | 44 | 12 | 189 | -21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 162 | 137 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 62 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 271 | 277 | 548 | 102 | 288 | 38 | 10 | 245 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 25 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 320 | 348 | 668 | 87 | 375 | 28 | 8 | 303 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 23 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 303 | 277 | 44 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 105 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 159 | 221 | 256 | 477 | 97 | 226 | 35 | 5 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 39 | 35 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 343 | 395 | 429 | 823 | 86 | 497 | 31 | 3 | 370 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 275 | 247 | 46 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 89 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 186 | 258 | 279 | 538 | 93 | 275 | 32 | 6 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 396 | 363 | 68 | 19 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 157 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 187 | 251 | 355 | 607 | 168 | 284 | 40 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 82 | 71 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 284 | 282 | 566 | 99 | 315 | 40 | 9 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 182 | 169 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 65 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 178 | 223 | 266 | 490 | 89 | 261 | 36 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 36 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 167 | 257 | 424 | 114 | 235 | 56 | 3 | 154 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 221 | 195 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 90 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 144 | 230 | 267 | 497 | 123 | 213 | 41 | 9 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 48 | 44 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 167 | 114 | 280 | 23 | 214 | 52 | 8 | 137 | -21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 162 | 142 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 78 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 141 | 213 | 211 | 424 | 70 | 247 | 48 | 7 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 25 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 200 | 208 | 408 | 42 | 314 | 40 | 4 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 303 | 277 | 44 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 105 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 159 | 221 | 256 | 477 | 97 | 232 | 35 | 5 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A RAW | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 303 | 268 | 57 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 80 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 213 | 294 | 340 | 634 | 127 | 279 | 26 | 8 | 286 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 314 | 283 | 59 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 101 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 208 | 275 | 300 | 575 | 92 | 315 | 32 | 5 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 314 | 275 | 72 | 23 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 81 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 262 | 343 | 385 | 728 | 124 | 359 | 26 | 8 | 326 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 396 | 363 | 68 | 19 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 157 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 187 | 251 | 355 | 607 | 168 | 286 | 40 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ RAW | San Jose Giants | — | 396 | 350 | 88 | 26 | 4 | 13 | 38 | 116 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 251 | 335 | 460 | 795 | 209 | 336 | 29 | 10 | 350 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 82 | 71 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 284 | 282 | 566 | 99 | 342 | 40 | 9 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | A+ RAW | San Jose Giants | — | 82 | 68 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 370 | 382 | 753 | 132 | 386 | 29 | 12 | 341 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 182 | 169 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 65 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 178 | 223 | 266 | 490 | 89 | 269 | 36 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA RAW | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 182 | 164 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 220 | 285 | 341 | 626 | 122 | 297 | 29 | 7 | 279 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 257 | 230 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 110 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 143 | 221 | 265 | 487 | 122 | 231 | 43 | 8 | 213 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 257 | 219 | 40 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 85 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 183 | 292 | 338 | 630 | 155 | 254 | 33 | 12 | 285 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 235 | 210 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 113 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 202 | 190 | 392 | 57 | 271 | 48 | 7 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 235 | 202 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 173 | 268 | 257 | 525 | 84 | 291 | 38 | 11 | 240 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 303 | 278 | 44 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 105 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 158 | 221 | 255 | 476 | 97 | 226 | 35 | 5 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 314 | 285 | 59 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 101 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 275 | 298 | 573 | 91 | 303 | 32 | 5 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 396 | 362 | 68 | 19 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 157 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 188 | 251 | 356 | 608 | 169 | 284 | 40 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 82 | 72 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 181 | 284 | 278 | 562 | 97 | 315 | 40 | 9 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 182 | 170 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 65 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 176 | 223 | 265 | 488 | 88 | 261 | 36 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 257 | 232 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 110 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 142 | 221 | 263 | 484 | 121 | 216 | 43 | 8 | 213 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 235 | 215 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 113 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 202 | 186 | 388 | 56 | 247 | 48 | 7 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1769 | 1603 | 275 | 75 | 7 | 29 | 109 | 684 | 31 | 9 | 4 | 172 | 238 | 281 | 519 | 110 | 273 | 39 | 6 | 228 | 41 | -125 | +0 | +0 | +32 | +38 | -5.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 102 | 28 | 3 | 11 | 40 | 251 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 173 | 239 | 287 | 526 | 114 | 275 | 39 | 6 | 228 | 41 | -46 | +0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 162 PAwOBA .241 → .188 (−53)K% 38.3% → 47.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.27% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 47.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.49% | ÷0.983 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.948 | 7.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.948 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.33% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.948 | 18.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.949 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.948 | 5.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.869 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.948 | 3.40% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .241 → .188; ISO .102 → .082; BABIP .288 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAASacramento River Cats · 48 PAwOBA .186 → .137 (−49)K% 43.8% → 52.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 43.75% | ÷1.071 | ×1.290 | — | — | 52.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.972 | 8.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷0.963 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.972 | 17.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.910 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.972 | 4.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.998 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 93, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 114, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .186 → .137; ISO .024 → .018; BABIP .238 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+San Jose Giants · 25 PAwOBA .296 → .211 (−85)K% 28.0% → 39.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.00% | ÷0.959 | ×1.340 | — | — | 39.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.00% | ÷0.971 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.940 | 5.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.987 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.940 | 21.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷0.991 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 9.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.924 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 92, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .296 → .211; ISO .087 → .059; BABIP .375 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 221 PAwOBA .286 → .223 (−63)K% 31.7% → 40.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.67% | ÷0.948 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.22% | ÷0.974 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 8.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.36% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 1.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.78% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×0.958 | 13.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.096 | ×0.860 | ×0.989 | ×0.958 | 6.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.87% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.989 | ×0.958 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.22% | ÷0.848 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 4.60% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 101, 2B 119, 3B 80, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .286 → .223; ISO .162 → .131; BABIP .250 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAASacramento River Cats · 36 PAwOBA .226 → .154 (−72)K% 41.7% → 54.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 41.67% | ÷0.989 | ×1.290 | — | — | 54.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷0.952 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.982 | 4.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.027 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.982 | 18.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.975 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.982 | 4.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.920 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.889 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.982 | 4.53% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 105, 2B 95, 3B 84, K 98, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .226 → .154; ISO .118 → .079; BABIP .278 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 182 PAwOBA .275 → .215 (−60)K% 28.6% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷1.155 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 4.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.54% | ÷0.994 | ×0.970 | ×0.966 | ×0.968 | 18.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.04% | ÷0.975 | ×0.860 | ×0.966 | ×0.968 | 6.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.89% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.966 | ×0.968 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.68% | ÷0.978 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 2.07% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 95, BB 131 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .275 → .215; ISO .122 → .093; BABIP .297 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+San Jose Giants · 82 PAwOBA .333 → .239 (−94)K% 29.3% → 39.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.27% | ÷0.983 | ×1.340 | — | — | 39.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.20% | ÷0.996 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.958 | 8.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.66% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.958 | 2.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.45% | ÷0.971 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.958 | 18.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.91% | ÷1.071 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.958 | 11.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | — | ×0.958 | 1.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 94, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .333 → .239; ISO .132 → .086; BABIP .386 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+San Jose Giants · 396 PAwOBA .342 → .263 (−79)K% 29.3% → 39.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.29% | ÷0.992 | ×1.340 | — | — | 39.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.60% | ÷1.063 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 6.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.23% | ÷1.032 | ×0.910 | ×0.990 | ×0.978 | 16.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.953 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×0.978 | 9.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.71% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×0.990 | ×0.978 | 1.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.866 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 5.77% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 106, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 98, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .342 → .263; ISO .209 → .176; BABIP .336 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).