Johnny King
P
Vancouver Canadians
+0.4
WAR
Age 20
LHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.1 · 2031
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.5%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%13.1%
IP62
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2031
K†6065
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 18 | 15 | 62 | 266 | 105 | 37 | 4 | 28.3% | 16.6% | 1.6% | 2.48 | 3.67 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 2 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 64 | 30 | 8 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 20 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 66 | 279 | 72 | 33 | 8 | 25.8% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 4.16 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 68 | 29 | 8 | 24.8% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 73 | 28 | 8 | 25.6% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.07 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 71 | 298 | 78 | 27 | 8 | 26.2% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.03 | 3.93 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 72 | 306 | 82 | 27 | 8 | 26.7% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 3.92 | 3.84 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 84 | 27 | 8 | 27.1% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 3.83 | 3.77 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 84 | 26 | 8 | 27.3% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 3.78 | 3.75 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 84 | 26 | 8 | 27.3% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 3.77 | 3.76 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 72 | 303 | 82 | 26 | 8 | 27.2% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 3.78 | 3.79 | +1.0 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 80 | 26 | 8 | 27.1% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 3.81 | 3.83 | +1.0 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 77 | 25 | 8 | 26.9% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 3.86 | 3.89 | +0.9 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 74 | 25 | 8 | 26.7% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 3.93 | 3.97 | +0.8 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 70 | 24 | 8 | 26.4% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.00 | 4.05 | +0.7 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 66 | 24 | 8 | 26.1% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.09 | 4.15 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 20 | 17 | 66 | 284 | 83 | 47 | 4 | 29.3% | 16.6% | 1.5% | 2.47 | 3.53 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 52 | 200 | 865 | 253 | 143 | 12 | 29.3% | 16.6% | 1.5% | 2.47 | 3.53 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Johnny King (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.09 | 25.5% | 15.8% | 203 | -0.34 | — | — | — |
| Sam Weatherly L 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 88 |
| Yereny Teus L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.59 | 23.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .276 | 4.59 | 18.9% | 0.7% | 34 | +1.00 | 3.49 | 131 | 87 |
| Keyshawn Askew L 2028 · 3.31 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.31 | 25.6% | 12.2% | 1.5% | .274 | 3.81 | 20.7% | 5.5% | 196 | +0.50 | 3.31 | 262 | 86 |
| Jaylen Nowlin L 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.45 | 26.8% | 13.3% | 1.7% | .352 | 4.99 | 19.1% | 6.1% | 254 | +1.54 | 3.45 | 325 | 86 |
| Alex Ayala Jr. L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.21 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.98 | 13.6% | -3.1% | 71 | +1.77 | 4.21 | 128 | 85 |
| Sonny Vargas L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.45 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 165 | 84 |
| Oddanier Mosqueda L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.74 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 2.1% | .308 | 4.12 | 25.7% | 14.1% | 106 | +0.38 | 3.05 | 433 | 84 |
| Wesley Moore L 2029 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.66 | 25.9% | 13.2% | 2.0% | .254 | 4.19 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 58 | +0.53 | 3.66 | 111 | 83 |
| Taylor Hearn L 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.97 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 3.2% | .347 | 4.00 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 236 | +0.03 | 3.74 | 572 | 83 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 82 |
| Andrew Walling L 2029 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.20 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 2.2% | .272 | 3.66 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 95 | -0.54 | 3.14 | 151 | 81 |
| Miguel Pozo L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.36 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .312 | 4.96 | 16.5% | -5.7% | 24 | +1.60 | 3.36 | 110 | 81 |
| Blake Townsend L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.97 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .286 | 3.98 | 18.5% | 4.8% | 96 | +0.01 | 3.33 | 200 | 80 |
| Benony Robles L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.63 | 22.3% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .262 | 5.08 | 19.2% | 4.5% | 135 | +1.45 | 3.63 | 271 | 80 |
| Dante Biasi L 2029 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.7% | .251 | 5.64 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +0.73 | 4.91 | 224 | 80 |
| Chase Watkins L 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.74 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 1.6% | .346 | 4.33 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.59 | 3.29 | 213 | 80 |
| Abdallah Aris L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.63 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 109 | 79 |
| Garrett Cleavinger L 2028 · 3.62 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.62 | 24.5% | 11.8% | 2.0% | .314 | 3.72 | 24.0% | 9.2% | 106 | +0.10 | 2.92 | 382 | 79 |
| Bryan Sammons L 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.58 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.96 | 18.4% | 8.4% | 228 | +0.38 | 3.40 | 665 | 79 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2029 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.43 | 22.5% | 12.6% | 1.2% | .318 | 4.79 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 91 | +1.36 | 3.43 | 152 | 79 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.1 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.1 | $11M | +$9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.0 | $10M | +$7M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.0 | $10M | +$5M |
| Totals | $13M | $61M | +$48M | ||