Johnny King — OGILVIE

Johnny King P Vancouver Canadians

Age 20 LHP 6'3" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 43 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105114vR 123

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%28.2%

BB%15.5%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP43

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4050

CTRL2045

CMD2045

K†6570

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.1M
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	18	15	62	266	105	37	4	83%	3.4	28.3%	16.6%	11.7%	1.2%	2.48	3.50	—
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	18	15	62	266	105	37	4	83%	3.4	39.5%	13.9%	25.6%	1.5%	2.48	2.34	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A+	Vancouver Canadians	17	17	67	292	90	39	5	100%	3.9	23.7%	15.4%	8.4%	2.1%	3.09	4.22	+0.4
ROS	20	MLB	TOR	8	8	43	182	51	28	5	100%	5.4	28.2%	15.5%	12.7%	2.8%	4.61	4.61	-0.0
ROS	20	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	28.2%	15.5%	12.7%	2.8%	4.61	4.61	—
2026 TOT	20	MLB	TOR	—	—	110	474	141	67	10	—	—	29.8%	14.2%	15.6%	2.1%	3.69	4.37	+1.3
2026 FULL	20	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	28.2%	15.5%	12.7%	2.8%	4.61	4.23	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	TOR	9	9	45	192	54	26	5	100%	5.0	28.1%	13.6%	14.5%	2.8%	4.45	4.36	+0.1
2028	22	MLB	TOR	9	9	48	201	58	24	6	100%	5.3	28.7%	12.1%	16.6%	2.7%	4.24	4.10	+0.3
2029	23	MLB	TOR	9	9	50	209	61	23	6	100%	5.5	29.1%	11.1%	18.0%	2.7%	4.05	3.92	+0.4
2030	24	MLB	TOR	9	9	51	214	63	22	6	100%	5.6	29.6%	10.5%	19.1%	2.7%	3.90	3.79	+0.5
2031	25	MLB	TOR	9	9	51	217	65	22	6	100%	5.7	29.9%	10.1%	19.8%	2.7%	3.78	3.70	+0.5
2032	26	MLB	TOR	9	9	51	217	65	22	6	100%	5.7	30.1%	10.1%	20.1%	2.7%	3.72	3.68	+0.5
2033	27	MLB	TOR	8	8	50	213	64	22	6	100%	6.3	30.1%	10.1%	20.0%	2.7%	3.72	3.72	+0.5
2034	28	MLB	TOR	8	8	49	207	62	21	6	100%	6.1	30.0%	10.3%	19.7%	2.8%	3.77	3.80	+0.4
2035	29	MLB	TOR	8	8	47	198	59	21	6	100%	5.8	29.8%	10.5%	19.3%	3.0%	3.87	3.93	+0.3
2027	21	MLB	TOR	5	5	22	93	26	13	3	100%	4.4	28.1%	13.6%	14.5%	2.8%	4.45	4.36	+0.0
2028	22	MLB	TOR	7	7	35	148	42	18	4	100%	5.0	28.7%	12.1%	16.6%	2.7%	4.24	4.10	+0.2
2029	23	MLB	TOR	8	8	42	177	52	20	5	100%	5.2	29.1%	11.1%	18.0%	2.7%	4.05	3.92	+0.3
2030	24	MLB	TOR	8	8	45	190	56	20	5	100%	5.6	29.6%	10.5%	19.1%	2.7%	3.90	3.79	+0.4
2031	25	MLB	TOR	8	8	47	198	59	20	5	100%	5.9	29.9%	10.1%	19.8%	2.7%	3.78	3.70	+0.5
2032	26	MLB	TOR	8	8	48	203	61	20	5	100%	6.0	30.1%	10.1%	20.1%	2.7%	3.72	3.68	+0.5
2033	27	MLB	TOR	8	8	48	203	61	21	6	100%	6.0	30.1%	10.1%	20.0%	2.7%	3.72	3.72	+0.5
2034	28	MLB	TOR	8	8	47	198	60	20	6	100%	5.9	30.0%	10.3%	19.7%	2.8%	3.77	3.80	+0.4
2035	29	MLB	TOR	7	7	44	186	55	20	6	100%	6.3	29.8%	10.5%	19.3%	3.0%	3.87	3.93	+0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			67	67	378	1597	473	171	44	100%	5.6	29.6%	10.7%	18.9%	2.8%	3.90	3.47	+8.5
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	250	90	23	100%	5.7	29.6%	10.7%	18.9%	2.8%	3.90	3.47	+4.5
Career	—			35	32	129	558	145	89	10	91%	3.7	25.9%	15.9%	10.0%	1.7%	2.80	3.87	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—			54	50	200	867	225	138	15	91%	3.7	25.9%	15.9%	10.0%	1.7%	2.80	3.87	+3.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johnny King (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	28.2%	15.5%	2.8%	—	4.12	28.7%	16.4%	143	-0.49	—	—	—
Steve Hajjar L 2027 · 3.67 FIP	21	SP	3.67	30.2%	14.9%	2.2%	.282	6.02	16.4%	-7.8%	97	+2.35	3.67	141	89
Brent Killam L 2029 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	29.1%	14.5%	3.4%	.284	7.12	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.77	4.35	121	84
Hagen Smith L 2027 · 5.05 FIP	21	SP	5.05	27.4%	19.3%	3.3%	.247	4.82	29.9%	13.2%	52	-0.23	4.82	128	82
Caden Grice L 2028 · 4.23 FIP	22	SP	4.23	23.1%	15.7%	2.0%	.282	5.28	17.3%	1.8%	55	+1.05	4.23	105	80
Adam Macko L 2026 · 3.51 FIP	20	SP	3.51	26.7%	16.0%	1.2%	.364	3.62	22.8%	11.2%	206	+0.11	3.51	382	78
Blake Townsend L 2026 · 3.96 FIP	20	SP-	3.96	26.7%	11.2%	3.1%	.286	4.11	18.5%	4.8%	96	+0.15	3.40	263	78
Sam Weatherly L 2028 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	24.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.28	3.86	189	77
Dalton Rogers L 2028 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	25.3%	16.7%	2.4%	.327	4.20	19.8%	4.6%	230	-0.20	3.42	326	76
Yereny Teus L 2026 · 3.59 FIP	20	SP	3.59	23.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.276	3.80	23.0%	7.5%	68	+0.21	2.98	166	76
Jay Groome L 2024 · 4.20 FIP	18	SP	4.20	21.6%	14.8%	1.9%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	420	75
Boston Bateman L 2026 · 4.10 FIP	20	SP-	4.10	23.0%	13.7%	2.2%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	153	74
Mason Molina L 2028 · 4.28 FIP	22	SP	4.28	22.7%	12.6%	2.7%	.276	3.56	23.3%	13.3%	69	-0.72	3.56	165	74
Brent Headrick L 2029 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	22.9%	14.0%	2.9%	.383	4.63	24.2%	16.7%	227	+0.11	2.40	382	74
Jaylen Nowlin L 2027 · 3.48 FIP	21	SP-	3.48	26.8%	13.3%	1.8%	.352	5.07	19.1%	6.1%	254	+1.59	3.48	357	73
Samy Natera Jr. L 2029 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.68	29.8%	14.8%	108	-1.49	1.94	191	72
DL Hall L 2026 · 3.66 FIP	20	SP	3.66	25.8%	17.9%	0.9%	.289	3.63	32.5%	18.6%	122	-0.03	3.21	518	72
Hayden Mullins L 2029 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP-	4.33	23.4%	12.4%	3.0%	.288	4.01	25.1%	10.7%	150	-0.32	3.72	239	72
Sebastian Gongora L 2029 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP	3.80	21.8%	14.0%	1.4%	.335	3.81	18.5%	11.0%	84	+0.01	3.80	152	72
Xavier Rivas L 2029 · 4.87 FIP	23	SP	4.87	23.2%	16.4%	3.0%	.229	5.34	28.7%	15.4%	64	+0.47	4.87	150	72
DJ Herz L 2026 · 4.21 FIP	20	SP	4.21	30.2%	16.0%	3.0%	.246	3.99	26.3%	11.0%	318	-0.22	3.47	410	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10	49	29.4%	11.3%	1.07	4.00
Matt Barnes ('23)	9	49	29.6%	10.8%	1.03	4.14
Brad Boxberger ('23)	8	43	27.1%	11.7%	1.17	3.86
Mychal Givens ('22)	8	57	28.4%	9.8%	1.06	3.40
Adam Ottavino ('24)	8	59	29.3%	11.4%	0.86	3.18
Jake Diekman ('24)	9	51	28.6%	13.8%	0.91	4.07
Joe Kelly ('24)	9	56	24.6%	10.3%	0.81	4.40