Johnny King — OGILVIE

Johnny King P Vancouver Canadians

Age 20 LHP 6'3" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.5 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%28.4%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP43

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$52M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4045

CMD3045

K†6570

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$8M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$8M
2032	Arb-1	$5M	+1.7	$9M	+$6M
2033	Arb-2	$8M	+1.6	$8M	+$4M
2034	Arb-3	$11M	+1.4	$6M	+$1M
Totals		$28M		$46M	+$33M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	15	62	266	105	37	4	83%	3.4	28.3%	16.6%	11.7%	1.5%	2.48	3.65	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	15	62	266	105	37	4	83%	3.4	28.3%	16.6%	11.7%	1.5%	2.48	3.65	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	15	62	266	105	37	4	83%	3.4	39.5%	13.9%	25.6%	1.5%	2.48	2.34	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	26	26	105	456	139	62	8	100%	4.1	23.7%	15.5%	8.2%	2.2%	3.16	4.26	—
YTD	20	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	26	26	105	456	139	62	8	100%	4.1	23.7%	15.5%	8.2%	2.2%	3.16	4.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A+ RAW	TOR	21	21	84	366	112	50	7	100%	4.0	30.6%	13.7%	16.9%	1.9%	3.21	3.30	—
2026	20	AA RAW	TOR	5	5	21	90	27	12	1	100%	4.3	30.0%	13.3%	16.7%	1.1%	2.95	2.87	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	108	458	129	63	13	100%	4.9	28.2%	13.9%	14.3%	2.8%	4.50	4.41	+0.6
2028	22	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	114	480	138	59	13	100%	5.2	28.6%	12.2%	16.4%	2.8%	4.27	4.13	+1.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	118	499	145	55	14	100%	5.4	29.0%	11.1%	17.9%	2.7%	4.07	3.94	+1.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	121	511	150	53	14	100%	5.5	29.4%	10.4%	19.0%	2.7%	3.92	3.81	+1.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	123	518	154	52	14	100%	5.8	29.8%	10.0%	19.8%	2.7%	3.80	3.71	+1.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	123	518	155	52	14	100%	6.1	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	2.7%	3.74	3.69	+1.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	121	510	153	51	14	100%	6.0	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	2.8%	3.73	3.73	+1.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	117	495	148	50	14	100%	5.9	29.9%	10.2%	19.7%	2.9%	3.78	3.81	+1.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	112	472	140	49	14	100%	5.9	29.6%	10.4%	19.2%	3.0%	3.88	3.95	+1.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	TOR	18	18	105	444	130	48	14	100%	5.8	29.3%	10.7%	18.6%	3.2%	4.03	4.12	+1.0
2037	31	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	98	414	120	46	14	100%	6.1	28.9%	11.1%	17.8%	3.4%	4.21	4.33	+0.7
2038	32	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	91	383	109	44	14	100%	6.0	28.4%	11.5%	17.0%	3.7%	4.41	4.55	+0.4
2039	33	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	83	351	98	42	14	100%	5.9	27.9%	11.9%	16.0%	4.0%	4.64	4.80	+0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	54	228	64	32	6	100%	4.9	28.2%	13.9%	14.3%	2.8%	4.50	4.41	+0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	83	350	100	43	10	100%	5.2	28.6%	12.2%	16.4%	2.8%	4.27	4.13	+0.8
2029	23	MLB CTX	TOR	19	19	100	422	123	47	12	100%	5.3	29.0%	11.1%	17.9%	2.7%	4.07	3.94	+1.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	TOR	19	19	108	456	134	47	12	100%	5.7	29.4%	10.4%	19.0%	2.7%	3.92	3.81	+1.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	TOR	19	19	113	477	142	48	13	100%	5.9	29.8%	10.0%	19.8%	2.7%	3.80	3.71	+1.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	TOR	19	19	114	481	144	48	13	100%	6.0	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	2.7%	3.74	3.69	+1.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	TOR	19	19	115	486	146	49	13	100%	6.1	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	2.8%	3.73	3.73	+1.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	TOR	18	18	111	469	140	48	13	100%	6.2	29.9%	10.2%	19.7%	2.9%	3.78	3.81	+1.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	TOR	18	18	106	448	133	47	13	100%	5.9	29.6%	10.4%	19.2%	3.0%	3.88	3.95	+1.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	TOR	17	17	100	422	124	45	14	100%	5.9	29.3%	10.7%	18.6%	3.2%	4.03	4.12	+0.9
2037	31	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	93	393	113	43	13	100%	5.8	28.9%	11.1%	17.8%	3.4%	4.21	4.33	+0.6
2038	32	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	86	363	103	42	13	100%	6.1	28.4%	11.5%	17.0%	3.7%	4.41	4.55	+0.4
2039	33	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	79	334	93	40	13	100%	6.1	27.9%	11.9%	16.0%	4.0%	4.64	4.80	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		219	219	1262	5328	1560	577	160	100%	5.8	29.3%	10.8%	18.4%	3.0%	4.03	3.65	+19.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	247	91	25	100%	5.8	29.3%	10.8%	18.4%	3.0%	4.03	3.65	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		44	41	167	722	183	115	14	93%	3.8	25.4%	15.9%	9.5%	1.9%	2.91	4.03	+14.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	49	200	865	220	138	17	93%	3.8	25.4%	15.9%	9.5%	1.9%	2.91	4.03	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johnny King (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	28.4%	16.0%	2.9%	—	4.15	28.6%	16.3%	340	-0.54	—	—	—
Steve Hajjar L 2022 · 3.67 FIP	21	SP	3.67	30.2%	14.9%	2.2%	.282	6.17	16.4%	-7.8%	97	+2.50	3.67	141	88
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	84
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	77
Miguel Pozo L 2022 · 3.54 FIP	20	SP	3.54	23.2%	11.6%	1.7%	.312	5.04	16.5%	-5.7%	24	+1.50	3.54	110	77
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	76
Jay Groome L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	18	SP	4.56	21.6%	14.8%	2.6%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	420	76
Blake Townsend L 2021 · 3.78 FIP	20	SP-	3.78	26.7%	11.2%	2.8%	.286	4.01	18.5%	4.8%	96	+0.23	3.34	305	75
DL Hall L 2019 · 3.72 FIP	20	SP	3.72	25.8%	17.9%	1.0%	.289	3.68	32.5%	18.6%	122	-0.04	3.49	539	74
Julio Mendez L 2022 · 3.83 FIP	17	SP	3.83	23.8%	15.8%	1.3%	.302	4.61	16.3%	3.1%	155	+0.78	3.83	290	73
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	73
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	73
Francisco Morao L 2023 · 4.30 FIP	17	SP	4.30	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.303	4.59	18.4%	1.5%	115	+0.29	4.00	154	73
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	72
DJ Herz L 2021 · 4.16 FIP	20	SP	4.16	30.2%	16.0%	2.9%	.246	3.97	26.1%	11.2%	318	-0.19	3.54	423	72
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	72
Eric Dominguez L 2023 · 4.28 FIP	20	SP-	4.28	24.3%	16.1%	2.2%	.371	4.07	20.4%	7.5%	85	-0.21	3.81	140	71
Ryan Webb L 2022 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	22.0%	15.4%	1.3%	.398	3.71	19.6%	9.4%	345	-0.21	3.26	448	70
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	70
Kris Bubic L 2018 · 3.97 FIP	20	SP	3.97	21.0%	13.8%	1.6%	.367	3.99	22.5%	13.0%	329	+0.02	2.16	750	70
Trenton Wallace L 2022 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	25.8%	15.8%	1.3%	.224	4.62	22.4%	10.7%	206	+1.00	2.87	286	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.4	105	29.2%	11.1%	1.15	4.07
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73