Johnny King

P Vancouver Canadians

Age 21 LHP 6'3" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2031

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP45OGV rank#74ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	MIX2 levels	18	15	62	2.48	2.34	39.5%	13.9%	—	K 28.3% · BB 16.6% · FIP 3.65
2026	20	MIX2 levels	26	26	105	3.16	3.21	30.5%	13.6%	—	K 23.7% · BB 15.5% · FIP 4.26
2027PROJ	21	MLBTOR	1	1	1	4.80	4.80	25.4%	15.7%	0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBTOR	12	12	62	4.57	4.45	26.0%	13.5%	0.7
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBTOR	17	17	91	4.35	4.21	26.5%	12.0%	1.3

Next 3 projected WAR 2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$4M2033Arb-2$6M2034Arb-3$8M

Career WAR1.4 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 21, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 66%

CompsDalton Rogers (age 22) · Brandon Knarr (age 23) · DJ Herz (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%25.4%

BB%15.7%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP125

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$60M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$11M	+$10M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$9M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+1.7	$9M	+$7M
2033	Arb-2	$6M	+1.6	$8M	+$5M
2034	Arb-3	$8M	+1.4	$7M	+$3M
Totals		$20M		$53M	+$42M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	15	62	266	105	37	4	83%	3.4	28.3%	16.6%	11.7%	1.5%	2.48	3.65	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	15	62	266	105	37	4	83%	3.4	28.3%	16.6%	11.7%	1.5%	2.48	3.65	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	15	62	266	105	37	4	83%	3.4	39.5%	13.9%	25.6%	1.5%	2.48	2.34	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	105	456	139	62	8	100%	4.1	23.7%	15.5%	8.2%	2.2%	3.16	4.26	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	105	456	139	62	8	100%	4.1	23.7%	15.5%	8.2%	2.2%	3.16	4.26	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	105	456	139	62	8	100%	4.1	30.5%	13.6%	16.9%	1.8%	3.16	3.21	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	TOR	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	25.4%	15.7%	9.7%	2.7%	4.80	4.80	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TOR	25	25	125	529	138	71	14	100%	5.0	26.0%	13.5%	12.6%	2.7%	4.57	4.45	+1.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	125	529	140	63	14	100%	5.4	26.5%	12.0%	14.5%	2.6%	4.35	4.21	+1.8
2030	24	MLB MLE	TOR	22	22	125	529	142	58	14	100%	5.7	26.8%	11.0%	15.8%	2.6%	4.18	4.06	+2.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	TOR	18	18	104	438	119	46	12	100%	5.8	27.1%	10.5%	16.6%	2.6%	4.05	3.96	+1.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	104	439	120	46	12	100%	6.1	27.3%	10.4%	16.8%	2.6%	3.98	3.94	+1.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	102	430	117	45	12	100%	6.0	27.3%	10.5%	16.8%	2.7%	3.98	3.98	+1.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	97	410	111	44	11	100%	6.1	27.1%	10.7%	16.5%	2.8%	4.03	4.06	+1.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	91	383	103	42	11	100%	6.0	26.9%	10.9%	16.0%	2.9%	4.13	4.19	+1.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	82	347	92	39	11	100%	5.9	26.6%	11.2%	15.4%	3.1%	4.27	4.37	+1.0
2037	31	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	73	309	81	36	10	100%	6.1	26.2%	11.5%	14.6%	3.4%	4.45	4.57	+0.7
2038	32	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	64	272	70	32	10	100%	5.9	25.7%	11.9%	13.8%	3.6%	4.66	4.80	+0.4
2039	33	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	56	238	60	29	9	100%	6.3	25.2%	12.4%	12.8%	3.9%	4.89	5.05	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	62	262	68	35	7	100%	5.2	26.0%	13.5%	12.6%	2.7%	4.57	4.45	+0.7
2029	23	MLB CTX	TOR	17	17	91	384	102	46	10	100%	5.4	26.5%	12.0%	14.5%	2.6%	4.35	4.21	+1.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	TOR	19	19	104	439	118	48	12	100%	5.5	26.8%	11.0%	15.8%	2.6%	4.18	4.06	+1.7
2031	25	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	92	388	105	41	10	100%	5.8	27.1%	10.5%	16.6%	2.6%	4.05	3.96	+1.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	95	401	109	42	11	100%	5.9	27.3%	10.4%	16.8%	2.6%	3.98	3.94	+1.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	94	397	108	42	11	100%	5.9	27.3%	10.5%	16.8%	2.7%	3.98	3.98	+1.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	TOR	15	15	91	384	104	41	11	100%	6.1	27.1%	10.7%	16.5%	2.8%	4.03	4.06	+1.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	86	363	98	39	11	100%	6.1	26.9%	10.9%	16.0%	2.9%	4.13	4.19	+1.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	78	329	87	37	10	100%	6.0	26.6%	11.2%	15.4%	3.1%	4.27	4.37	+0.9
2037	31	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	70	296	77	34	10	100%	5.8	26.2%	11.5%	14.6%	3.4%	4.45	4.57	+0.7
2038	32	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	61	258	66	31	9	100%	6.1	25.7%	11.9%	13.8%	3.6%	4.66	4.80	+0.4
2039	33	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	53	224	56	28	9	100%	5.9	25.2%	12.4%	12.8%	3.9%	4.89	5.05	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	168	978	4129	1101	464	120	100%	5.8	26.7%	11.2%	15.4%	2.9%	4.25	3.86	+18.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	225	95	25	100%	5.8	26.7%	11.2%	15.4%	2.9%	4.25	3.86	+3.7
Career	—	MLE		44	41	167	722	183	115	14	93%	3.8	25.4%	15.9%	9.5%	1.9%	2.91	4.03	+15.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	49	200	865	220	138	17	93%	3.8	25.4%	15.9%	9.5%	1.9%	2.91	4.03	+2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Vancouver Canadians · 84 IPFIP 3.30 → 4.41 (+1.12)K% 30.6% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.60%	—	×0.770	23.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.66%	—	×1.150	15.71%
HR / BF /BF	1.91%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.39%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.30 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 21 IPFIP 2.87 → 3.64 (+0.77)K% 30.0% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.810	24.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×1.100	14.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.11%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.33%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.87 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADunedin Blue Jays · 38 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.71 (+1.26)K% 38.1% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.10%	—	×0.740	28.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.86%	—	×1.180	21.07%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.284	×1.300	2.41%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 24 IPFIP 0.47 → 1.83 (+1.36)K% 41.8% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.84%	—	×0.680	28.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.250	8.93%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.077	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 0.47 → 1.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johnny King (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.24	26.4%	14.3%	376	-0.56	—	—	—
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	87
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	79
DJ Herz L 2022 · 4.57 FIP	21	SP	4.57	26.4%	18.9%	2.4%	.246	3.70	26.2%	12.9%	222	-0.87	3.54	423	78
Alex Clemmey L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	19	SP	4.22	23.3%	19.0%	1.2%	.313	5.26	20.2%	4.5%	245	+1.04	4.22	337	78
Doug Nikhazy L 2022 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	21.8%	19.9%	2.2%	.270	4.75	20.9%	8.5%	312	-0.24	4.12	463	78
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	77
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	77
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	77
Travis Ott L 2017 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	20.9%	12.3%	1.7%	.253	3.67	24.7%	14.4%	70	-0.15	3.67	188	77
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	77
Sean Newcomb L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	22	SP	3.69	22.5%	15.1%	1.1%	.282	3.70	22.8%	10.7%	462	+0.01	2.76	1,030	77
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	77
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	76
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	76
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	76
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	76
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	76
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	74
Thomas White L 2024 · 3.66 FIP	19	SP	3.66	22.2%	10.8%	1.9%	.332	2.96	29.5%	16.5%	99	-0.70	2.64	195	74
Jacob Bresnahan L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	20.2%	14.1%	3.2%	.292	3.92	23.2%	11.1%	208	-1.03	3.03	277	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	98	26.5%	11.8%	1.11	4.32
Juan Berenguer ('78-'92, 9 WAR*)	6.0	100	26.4%*	11.6%*	1.13*	4.14*
Dick Selma ('65-'74, 6 WAR*)	4.2	93	24.5%*	11.1%*	1.12*	4.28*
Kerry Wood ('12)	6.9	115	27.0%	11.4%	0.97	3.67
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Oliver Pérez ('22)	7.3	86	23.9%	11.8%	1.22	4.37
Francisco Liriano ('19)	9.1	130	23.3%	10.5%	0.91	4.15