Freddy Contreras
P
DSL Royals Ventura
Age 17
RHP
5'11" / 178 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
K%23.3%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16 | ROK | DSL Royals Ventura | 10 | 9 | 30 | 125 | 37 | 13 | 0 | 90% | 3.0 | 20.1% | 13.0% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 3.30 | 3.05 | — |
| 2025 | 16 | ROK | DSL Royals Ventura | 10 | 9 | 30 | 125 | 37 | 13 | 0 | 90% | 3.0 | 29.6% | 10.4% | 19.2% | 0.0% | 3.30 | 1.93 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 17 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 56 | 234 | 55 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 18 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 79 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.18 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 19 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 104 | 42 | 13 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.27 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 20 | MLB | KC | 26 | 26 | 144 | 606 | 141 | 53 | 17 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.2% | 8.7% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.12 | +2.1 |
| 2030 | 21 | MLB | KC | 32 | 32 | 175 | 739 | 175 | 61 | 20 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.7% | 8.3% | 15.4% | 2.7% | 4.08 | 4.01 | +2.8 |
| 2031 | 22 | MLB | KC | 33 | 33 | 180 | 760 | 187 | 59 | 20 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.6% | 7.8% | 16.8% | 2.6% | 3.93 | 3.83 | +3.3 |
| 2032 | 23 | MLB | KC | 33 | 33 | 180 | 760 | 193 | 57 | 20 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.4% | 7.5% | 17.9% | 2.6% | 3.79 | 3.70 | +3.6 |
| 2033 | 24 | MLB | KC | 32 | 32 | 180 | 760 | 197 | 55 | 19 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.9% | 7.2% | 18.7% | 2.6% | 3.68 | 3.61 | +3.8 |
| 2034 | 25 | MLB | KC | 31 | 31 | 180 | 760 | 200 | 54 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.3% | 7.1% | 19.2% | 2.5% | 3.60 | 3.55 | +3.9 |
| 2035 | 26 | MLB | KC | 30 | 30 | 180 | 760 | 202 | 54 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.5% | 7.1% | 19.5% | 2.5% | 3.56 | 3.53 | +3.9 |
| 2036 | 27 | MLB | KC | 30 | 30 | 177 | 749 | 199 | 53 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.5% | 7.1% | 19.4% | 2.6% | 3.57 | 3.57 | +3.8 |
| 2037 | 28 | MLB | KC | 29 | 29 | 172 | 726 | 192 | 53 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.4% | 7.3% | 19.1% | 2.7% | 3.62 | 3.65 | +3.5 |
| 2038 | 29 | MLB | KC | 27 | 27 | 164 | 694 | 181 | 52 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.2% | 7.5% | 18.6% | 2.8% | 3.72 | 3.78 | +3.1 |
| 2039 | 30 | MLB | KC | 26 | 26 | 154 | 652 | 168 | 51 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.8% | 7.8% | 18.0% | 3.0% | 3.87 | 3.96 | +2.6 |
| 2027 | 18 | MLB | KC | 7 | 7 | 38 | 160 | 38 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 19 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 76 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.22 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 20 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 121 | 511 | 119 | 44 | 14 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.2% | 8.7% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.07 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 21 | MLB | KC | 29 | 29 | 157 | 663 | 157 | 55 | 17 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.7% | 8.3% | 15.4% | 2.6% | 4.03 | 3.96 | +2.6 |
| 2031 | 22 | MLB | KC | 30 | 30 | 167 | 705 | 174 | 55 | 18 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.6% | 7.8% | 16.8% | 2.5% | 3.88 | 3.78 | +3.2 |
| 2032 | 23 | MLB | KC | 31 | 31 | 171 | 722 | 183 | 54 | 18 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.4% | 7.5% | 17.9% | 2.5% | 3.74 | 3.65 | +3.5 |
| 2033 | 24 | MLB | KC | 31 | 31 | 171 | 722 | 187 | 52 | 18 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.9% | 7.2% | 18.7% | 2.5% | 3.63 | 3.56 | +3.7 |
| 2034 | 25 | MLB | KC | 29 | 29 | 171 | 722 | 190 | 51 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.3% | 7.1% | 19.2% | 2.5% | 3.55 | 3.50 | +3.8 |
| 2035 | 26 | MLB | KC | 28 | 28 | 171 | 722 | 192 | 51 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.5% | 7.1% | 19.5% | 2.5% | 3.51 | 3.48 | +3.8 |
| 2036 | 27 | MLB | KC | 28 | 28 | 168 | 709 | 188 | 51 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.5% | 7.1% | 19.4% | 2.5% | 3.52 | 3.52 | +3.7 |
| 2037 | 28 | MLB | KC | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 182 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.4% | 7.3% | 19.1% | 2.6% | 3.57 | 3.60 | +3.4 |
| 2038 | 29 | MLB | KC | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 172 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.2% | 7.5% | 18.6% | 2.8% | 3.67 | 3.73 | +3.0 |
| 2039 | 30 | MLB | KC | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 160 | 49 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.8% | 7.8% | 18.0% | 2.9% | 3.82 | 3.91 | +2.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 345 | 345 | 1881 | 7941 | 2018 | 607 | 206 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.4% | 7.6% | 17.8% | 2.6% | 3.75 | 3.35 | +45.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 37 | 200 | 844 | 215 | 65 | 22 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.4% | 7.6% | 17.8% | 2.6% | 3.75 | 3.35 | +4.8 | ||
| Career | — | 10 | 9 | 30 | 125 | 25 | 16 | 0 | 90% | 3.0 | 20.1% | 13.0% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 3.30 | 3.05 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 60 | 200 | 833 | 168 | 108 | 0 | 90% | 3.0 | 20.1% | 13.0% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 3.30 | 3.05 | +5.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Freddy Contreras (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.18 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 330 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Marco Raya R 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.77 | 21.4% | 10.3% | 4.0% | .250 | 4.47 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 254 | -0.30 | 3.83 | 358 | 86 |
| Sheng-En Lin R 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.58 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 2.1% | .223 | 4.19 | 17.8% | 3.4% | 61 | +0.61 | 3.58 | 108 | 85 |
| Luis Arejula R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.46 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.0% | .318 | 4.42 | 15.7% | 3.5% | 71 | +0.96 | 3.46 | 115 | 85 |
| Shawndrick Oduber R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.21 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 3.8% | .337 | 5.35 | 15.2% | 3.4% | 72 | +1.14 | 4.21 | 104 | 84 |
| Ramon Marquez R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.98 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .331 | 3.00 | 30.4% | 19.8% | 49 | -0.98 | 3.00 | 104 | 82 |
| Bryan Perez R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 17 | SP- | 4.15 | 18.2% | 9.5% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.59 | 16.6% | 5.2% | 160 | +0.44 | 4.15 | 211 | 82 |
| Jose Montero R 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.77 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .377 | 3.97 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 234 | +0.20 | 3.77 | 342 | 81 |
| Walin Castillo R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 17 | SP | 3.75 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .278 | 4.94 | 12.7% | 1.1% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.75 | 291 | 81 |
| Carlos Naveda R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.77 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .297 | 2.63 | 16.9% | 11.7% | 64 | -1.14 | 2.63 | 120 | 81 |
| Juan Bello R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.83 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .256 | 3.93 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 155 | +0.10 | 3.83 | 187 | 80 |
| Andry Rondon R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.46 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.98 | 15.6% | 1.1% | 49 | +0.52 | 3.26 | 105 | 80 |
| Gilberto Batista R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 18 | SP- | 3.97 | 22.8% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .323 | 5.20 | 15.0% | 4.5% | 187 | +1.23 | 3.97 | 227 | 80 |
| Kyle Glogoski R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.46 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 1.7% | .277 | 3.92 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 93 | +0.46 | 3.43 | 206 | 79 |
| Trevor Harrison R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.19 | 21.0% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .331 | 4.72 | 17.7% | 5.1% | 161 | +0.53 | 3.80 | 234 | 78 |
| Jordany Ventura R 2028 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.08 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 219 | 78 |
| Jordarlin Mendoza R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.21 | 23.3% | 10.6% | 1.3% | .325 | 5.17 | 19.7% | -2.2% | 54 | +1.96 | 3.21 | 133 | 78 |
| Dahian Santos R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.91 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 4.7% | .316 | 4.73 | 25.1% | 10.2% | 161 | -0.18 | 4.35 | 197 | 78 |
| Moises Castillo R 2028 · 4.58 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 19.4% | 5.0% | 65 | -0.50 | 3.77 | 101 | 78 |
| Jarlin Susana R 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.30 | 26.7% | 13.9% | 1.3% | .273 | 3.54 | 24.5% | 9.8% | 214 | +0.24 | 2.75 | 249 | 78 |
| Christian Zazueta R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 17 | SP | 4.92 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 4.2% | .333 | 4.08 | 19.8% | 11.4% | 189 | -0.84 | 3.55 | 276 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 14 | 152 | 25.3% | 7.8% | 1.04 | 3.83 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Alex Wood ('24) | 9 | 111 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 0.96 | 3.98 |
| Joe Musgrove ('24) | 9 | 117 | 23.9% | 6.0% | 1.13 | 3.73 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |