Freddy Contreras

Freddy Contreras P DSL Royals Ventura

Age 17 RHP 5'11" / 178 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%23.3%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4555

CTRL—50

CMD2555

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	10	9	30	125	37	13	0	90%	3.0	20.1%	13.0%	7.1%	0.0%	3.30	3.05	—
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	10	9	30	125	37	13	0	90%	3.0	20.1%	13.0%	7.1%	0.0%	3.30	3.05	—
2025	16	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	10	9	30	125	37	13	0	90%	3.0	29.6%	10.4%	19.2%	0.0%	3.30	1.93	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	17	MLB	KC	1	1	4	17	4	2	0	100%	4.0	23.3%	11.6%	11.8%	2.9%	4.56	4.56	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	18	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	78	331	79	35	9	100%	5.6	23.8%	10.4%	13.4%	2.8%	4.43	4.36	+0.5
2028	19	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	108	457	104	47	13	100%	5.4	22.7%	10.2%	12.4%	2.8%	4.41	4.40	+0.6
2029	20	MLB MLE	KC	26	26	144	606	141	57	17	100%	5.5	23.2%	9.5%	13.8%	2.7%	4.30	4.22	+1.2
2030	21	MLB MLE	KC	32	32	175	739	175	66	20	100%	5.5	23.7%	8.9%	14.8%	2.7%	4.17	4.08	+1.7
2031	22	MLB MLE	KC	33	33	180	760	187	63	20	100%	5.5	24.6%	8.3%	16.3%	2.6%	4.00	3.89	+2.2
2032	23	MLB MLE	KC	33	33	180	760	193	60	20	100%	5.5	25.4%	7.9%	17.5%	2.6%	3.85	3.76	+2.5
2033	24	MLB MLE	KC	32	32	180	760	197	58	19	100%	5.6	25.9%	7.6%	18.3%	2.6%	3.74	3.66	+2.7
2034	25	MLB MLE	KC	31	31	180	760	200	57	19	100%	5.8	26.3%	7.5%	18.8%	2.5%	3.66	3.60	+2.8
2035	26	MLB MLE	KC	30	30	180	760	202	57	19	100%	6.0	26.5%	7.4%	19.1%	2.5%	3.61	3.58	+2.9
2036	27	MLB MLE	KC	30	30	177	749	199	56	19	100%	5.9	26.5%	7.5%	19.0%	2.6%	3.61	3.62	+2.7
2037	28	MLB MLE	KC	29	29	172	726	192	56	20	100%	5.9	26.4%	7.7%	18.7%	2.7%	3.66	3.70	+2.5
2038	29	MLB MLE	KC	27	27	164	694	181	55	20	100%	6.1	26.2%	7.9%	18.3%	2.8%	3.76	3.83	+2.1
2039	30	MLB MLE	KC	26	26	154	652	168	53	20	100%	5.9	25.8%	8.2%	17.6%	3.0%	3.91	4.01	+1.6
2027	18	MLB CTX	KC	7	7	38	160	38	17	4	100%	5.4	23.8%	10.4%	13.4%	2.6%	4.31	4.24	+0.2
2028	19	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	79	334	76	34	9	100%	5.6	22.7%	10.2%	12.4%	2.6%	4.29	4.28	+0.5
2029	20	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	121	511	119	48	13	100%	5.5	23.2%	9.5%	13.8%	2.5%	4.19	4.11	+1.0
2030	21	MLB CTX	KC	29	29	157	663	157	59	17	100%	5.4	23.7%	8.9%	14.8%	2.5%	4.06	3.97	+1.5
2031	22	MLB CTX	KC	30	30	167	705	174	58	17	100%	5.6	24.6%	8.3%	16.3%	2.4%	3.89	3.78	+2.0
2032	23	MLB CTX	KC	31	31	171	722	183	57	17	100%	5.5	25.4%	7.9%	17.5%	2.4%	3.74	3.65	+2.3
2033	24	MLB CTX	KC	31	31	171	722	187	55	17	100%	5.5	25.9%	7.6%	18.3%	2.4%	3.63	3.55	+2.5
2034	25	MLB CTX	KC	29	29	171	722	190	54	17	100%	5.9	26.3%	7.5%	18.8%	2.4%	3.56	3.50	+2.7
2035	26	MLB CTX	KC	28	28	171	722	192	54	17	100%	6.1	26.5%	7.4%	19.1%	2.4%	3.51	3.48	+2.7
2036	27	MLB CTX	KC	28	28	168	709	188	53	17	100%	6.0	26.5%	7.5%	19.0%	2.4%	3.50	3.51	+2.6
2037	28	MLB CTX	KC	27	27	163	688	182	53	17	100%	6.0	26.4%	7.7%	18.7%	2.5%	3.55	3.59	+2.3
2038	29	MLB CTX	KC	26	26	156	659	172	52	17	100%	6.0	26.2%	7.9%	18.3%	2.6%	3.64	3.71	+2.0
2039	30	MLB CTX	KC	24	24	147	621	160	51	17	100%	6.1	25.8%	8.2%	17.6%	2.8%	3.78	3.88	+1.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		345	345	1881	7941	2018	646	197	100%	5.5	25.4%	8.1%	17.3%	2.5%	3.75	3.35	+36.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	215	69	21	100%	5.5	25.4%	8.1%	17.3%	2.5%	3.75	3.35	+3.8
Career	—	MLE		10	9	30	125	25	16	0	90%	3.0	20.1%	13.0%	7.1%	0.0%	3.30	3.05	+25.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	60	200	833	168	108	0	90%	3.0	20.1%	13.0%	7.1%	0.0%	3.30	3.05	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Freddy Contreras (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	23.3%	11.6%	2.9%	—	4.31	23.2%	13.2%	330	-0.25	—	—	—
Marco Raya R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.44	19.5%	8.3%	254	-0.33	3.99	380	86
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	82
Bryan Perez R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	17	SP-	4.32	18.2%	9.5%	2.8%	.289	4.60	16.6%	5.2%	160	+0.28	4.14	211	82
Carlos Naveda R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	18	SP	3.77	19.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.297	2.63	16.9%	11.7%	64	-1.14	2.63	120	82
Walin Castillo R 2022 · 3.97 FIP	17	SP	3.97	17.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.278	4.92	12.7%	1.1%	190	+0.95	3.97	295	80
Shawndrick Oduber R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	18	SP	3.99	22.0%	7.2%	3.4%	.337	5.40	15.2%	3.4%	72	+1.41	3.99	104	79
Adrian Navas R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	19	SP	3.67	18.5%	11.9%	1.2%	.272	5.27	16.8%	7.1%	145	+1.60	3.67	204	79
Luigi Hernandez R 2021 · 4.91 FIP	17	SP	4.91	17.1%	11.9%	3.2%	.301	4.81	19.5%	-2.5%	77	-0.10	4.28	109	79
Jeisson Cabrera R 2018 · 3.79 FIP	19	SP	3.79	20.0%	13.0%	1.3%	.312	4.42	21.3%	5.8%	51	+0.63	3.78	244	78
Jose Montero R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	19	SP	3.72	20.8%	7.9%	2.5%	.377	4.03	15.8%	4.6%	234	+0.31	3.72	375	78
Eric Silva R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	19	SP	5.03	20.1%	12.6%	3.7%	.306	4.89	17.3%	5.6%	163	-0.14	4.68	299	78
Andry Rondon R 2015 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.8%	8.2%	1.8%	.283	3.98	15.6%	1.1%	49	+0.52	3.26	105	78
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	78
Anderson Cardenas R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	17	SP	4.22	17.3%	12.6%	1.8%	.319	4.04	21.2%	8.3%	92	-0.18	3.52	129	78
Kyle Glogoski R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.92	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.46	3.32	206	78
Dahian Santos R 2021 · 4.91 FIP	18	SP-	4.91	24.2%	10.1%	4.7%	.316	4.72	25.1%	10.2%	161	-0.19	4.57	197	77
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	77
Giussepe Velasquez R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	18	SP	4.21	17.2%	10.7%	2.2%	.329	5.64	19.1%	4.8%	53	+1.43	4.21	222	77
Yaqui Rivera R 2021 · 3.92 FIP	18	SP	3.92	18.3%	13.5%	1.2%	.314	3.82	21.7%	6.7%	139	-0.10	3.67	289	76
Mick Abel R 2021 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	25.8%	16.9%	3.5%	.242	4.88	20.9%	7.4%	326	-0.07	2.24	528	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.6	152	25.3%	8.3%	1.04	3.90
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67