Freddy Contreras

P DSL Royals Ventura

Age 18 RHP 5'11" / 178 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#335ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	16	ROKDSL Royals Ve…	10	9	30	3.30	1.93	29.6%	10.4%	—	K 20.1% · BB 13.0% · FIP 3.05
2027PROJ	18	MLBKC	—	—	0	4.46	4.46	24.0%	10.9%	—
2028PROJ35% MLB	19	MLBKC	5	5	26	4.22	4.16	24.3%	10.0%	0.3
2029PROJ57% MLB	20	MLBKC	10	10	53	4.09	4.01	24.6%	9.2%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$6M2033Ext$10M2034Ext$15M

CompsMarco Raya (age 19) · Luis Arejula (age 19) · Shawndrick Oduber (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%24.0%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%13.1%

Proj IP56

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	10	9	30	125	37	13	0	90%	3.0	20.1%	13.0%	7.1%	0.0%	3.30	3.05	—
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	10	9	30	125	37	13	0	90%	3.0	20.1%	13.0%	7.1%	0.0%	3.30	3.05	—
2025	16	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	10	9	30	125	37	13	0	90%	3.0	29.6%	10.4%	19.2%	0.0%	3.30	1.93	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	18	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.0%	10.9%	13.1%	2.9%	4.46	4.46	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	73	308	75	31	9	100%	5.6	24.3%	10.0%	14.4%	2.9%	4.34	4.28	+1.0
2029	20	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	93	392	96	36	11	100%	5.5	24.6%	9.2%	15.4%	2.8%	4.21	4.13	+1.4
2030	21	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	117	495	123	43	14	100%	5.6	24.8%	8.7%	16.2%	2.8%	4.09	4.01	+1.9
2031	22	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	128	542	139	44	15	100%	5.6	25.7%	8.1%	17.6%	2.7%	3.94	3.83	+2.4
2032	23	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	131	554	146	43	15	100%	5.5	26.5%	7.7%	18.8%	2.7%	3.79	3.70	+2.7
2033	24	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	130	548	148	41	15	100%	5.6	27.0%	7.5%	19.6%	2.7%	3.68	3.60	+2.8
2034	25	MLB MLE	KC	22	22	128	539	148	40	14	100%	5.8	27.4%	7.3%	20.1%	2.6%	3.60	3.55	+2.8
2035	26	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	128	542	150	40	14	100%	6.1	27.6%	7.3%	20.3%	2.6%	3.55	3.52	+2.9
2036	27	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	126	530	146	39	14	100%	6.0	27.6%	7.4%	20.2%	2.7%	3.56	3.56	+2.8
2037	28	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	120	508	140	38	14	100%	6.0	27.5%	7.5%	20.0%	2.8%	3.61	3.65	+2.5
2038	29	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	112	473	129	37	14	100%	5.9	27.3%	7.8%	19.5%	2.9%	3.71	3.78	+2.2
2039	30	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	102	430	116	35	14	100%	6.0	26.9%	8.1%	18.9%	3.1%	3.86	3.95	+1.8
2040	31	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	91	385	102	32	13	100%	6.1	26.5%	8.4%	18.1%	3.4%	4.04	4.16	+1.3
2028	19	MLB CTX	KC	5	5	26	110	27	11	3	100%	5.2	24.3%	10.0%	14.4%	2.7%	4.22	4.16	+0.3
2029	20	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	53	224	55	21	6	100%	5.3	24.6%	9.2%	15.4%	2.6%	4.09	4.01	+0.8
2030	21	MLB CTX	KC	15	15	83	350	87	30	9	100%	5.5	24.8%	8.7%	16.2%	2.6%	3.98	3.90	+1.4
2031	22	MLB CTX	KC	19	19	102	431	111	35	11	100%	5.4	25.7%	8.1%	17.6%	2.5%	3.83	3.72	+1.9
2032	23	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	112	473	125	36	12	100%	5.6	26.5%	7.7%	18.8%	2.5%	3.68	3.59	+2.3
2033	24	MLB CTX	KC	21	21	115	486	131	36	12	100%	5.5	27.0%	7.5%	19.6%	2.5%	3.57	3.49	+2.5
2034	25	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	116	490	134	36	12	100%	5.8	27.4%	7.3%	20.1%	2.4%	3.49	3.44	+2.6
2035	26	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	118	498	138	36	12	100%	5.9	27.6%	7.3%	20.3%	2.4%	3.44	3.41	+2.7
2036	27	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	117	494	136	36	12	100%	5.8	27.6%	7.4%	20.2%	2.5%	3.45	3.45	+2.6
2037	28	MLB CTX	KC	19	19	112	473	130	36	12	100%	5.9	27.5%	7.5%	20.0%	2.6%	3.49	3.53	+2.4
2038	29	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	105	443	121	34	12	100%	5.8	27.3%	7.8%	19.5%	2.7%	3.59	3.66	+2.0
2039	30	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	97	410	110	33	12	100%	6.1	26.9%	8.1%	18.9%	2.9%	3.73	3.82	+1.7
2040	31	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	87	367	97	31	11	100%	6.2	26.5%	8.4%	18.1%	3.1%	3.90	4.02	+1.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		222	222	1242	5243	1401	411	136	100%	5.6	26.7%	7.8%	18.9%	2.6%	3.66	3.27	+32.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	226	66	22	100%	5.6	26.7%	7.8%	18.9%	2.6%	3.66	3.27	+5.3
Career	—	MLE		10	9	30	125	25	16	0	90%	3.0	20.1%	13.0%	7.1%	0.0%	3.30	3.05	+28.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	60	200	833	168	108	0	90%	3.0	20.1%	13.0%	7.1%	0.0%	3.30	3.05	+3.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ROKDSL Royals Ventura · 30 IPFIP 1.92 → 3.05 (+1.13)K% 29.6% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.60%	—	×0.680	20.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.40%	—	×1.250	13.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.877	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 1.92 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Freddy Contreras (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.12	24.6%	15.4%	283	-0.34	—	—	—
Marco Raya R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.42	19.8%	8.6%	254	-0.35	3.99	383	86
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	83
Shawndrick Oduber R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	18	SP	3.99	22.0%	7.2%	3.4%	.337	5.40	15.2%	3.4%	72	+1.41	3.99	104	81
Carlos Naveda R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	18	SP	3.77	19.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.297	2.63	16.9%	11.7%	64	-1.14	2.63	120	80
Jordy Vargas R 2022 · 4.35 FIP	18	SP	4.35	22.1%	10.0%	3.4%	.239	4.64	19.8%	6.3%	95	+0.29	3.02	290	80
Jordarlin Mendoza R 2022 · 3.33 FIP	18	SP	3.33	23.3%	10.6%	1.6%	.325	5.22	19.7%	-2.2%	54	+1.89	3.33	147	79
Jose Montero R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	19	SP	3.72	20.8%	7.9%	2.5%	.377	4.03	15.8%	4.6%	234	+0.31	3.72	375	79
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	78
Trevor Harrison R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	18	SP	4.03	21.0%	10.6%	2.5%	.331	4.94	19.7%	7.0%	205	+0.91	3.79	277	78
Dahian Santos R 2021 · 4.91 FIP	18	SP-	4.91	24.2%	10.1%	4.7%	.316	4.72	25.1%	10.2%	161	-0.19	4.57	197	78
Adrian Heredia R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	19	SP	3.77	21.6%	12.8%	1.6%	.300	5.38	14.9%	1.8%	104	+1.61	3.34	149	78
Andry Rondon R 2015 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.8%	8.2%	1.8%	.283	3.98	15.6%	1.1%	49	+0.52	3.26	105	78
Kyle Glogoski R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.92	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.46	3.32	206	77
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	77
Nelfy Ynfante R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	18	SP	4.22	18.1%	10.7%	2.4%	.309	4.71	16.8%	5.5%	225	+0.49	3.70	297	77
Gilberto Batista R 2023 · 3.63 FIP	18	SP-	3.63	22.8%	6.2%	3.0%	.323	5.53	15.1%	5.0%	210	+1.90	3.63	250	77
Adrian Navas R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	19	SP	3.67	18.5%	11.9%	1.2%	.272	5.27	16.8%	7.1%	145	+1.60	3.67	204	76
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	76
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	910	76
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.7	110	26.5%	8.1%	1.09	3.84
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Jose Rijo ('84-'02, 33 WAR*)	9.4	145	25.9%*	8.4%*	0.93*	3.56*
Jose DeLeon ('83-'95, 22 WAR*)	9.5	146	25.8%*	10.4%*	1.01*	4.17*
Woodie Fryman ('66-'83, 21 WAR*)	12.1	142	21.1%*	8.8%*	1.09*	4.43*