Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Red | 11 | 9 | 41 | 161 | 54 | 8 | 3 | 82% | 3.7 | 22.8% | 6.2% | 16.6% | 3.7% | 3.54 | 3.97 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Red | 11 | 9 | 41 | 161 | 54 | 8 | 3 | 82% | 3.7 | 33.5% | 5.0% | 28.6% | 1.9% | 3.54 | 1.99 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 8 | 37 | 163 | 39 | 15 | 2 | 67% | 3.1 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 3.38 | 3.99 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 8 | 37 | 163 | 39 | 15 | 2 | 67% | 3.1 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 14.7% | 1.2% | 3.38 | 2.91 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 23 | 8 | 85 | 371 | 83 | 22 | 15 | 35% | 3.7 | 16.6% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.96 | 4.43 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 23 | 8 | 85 | 371 | 83 | 22 | 15 | 35% | 3.7 | 22.4% | 5.9% | 16.4% | 4.0% | 4.96 | 4.21 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 20 | 4 | 64 | 300 | 46 | 38 | 13 | 20% | 3.2 | 11.8% | 14.6% | -2.8% | 5.4% | 8.44 | 6.92 | -1.7 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | TOR | 44 | 0 | 46 | 196 | 31 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.85 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.85 | 4.85 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 110 | 496 | 77 | 54 | 19 | — | — | 15.4% | 10.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 6.93 | 6.05 | -0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 21 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 15.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.85 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TOR | 46 | 0 | 49 | 206 | 36 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | TOR | 48 | 0 | 51 | 214 | 40 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 43 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 7.4% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 50 | 0 | 52 | 222 | 44 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 7.3% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 50 | 0 | 52 | 222 | 45 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 7.2% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 49 | 0 | 52 | 218 | 44 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 7.3% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 48 | 0 | 50 | 212 | 42 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 7.5% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TOR | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | TOR | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 29 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 35 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 7.4% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 39 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 7.3% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 41 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 7.2% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 41 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 7.3% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 40 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 7.5% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 280 | 0 | 293 | 1239 | 243 | 91 | 36 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 7.4% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 3.99 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 166 | 62 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 7.4% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 66 | 29 | 227 | 995 | 161 | 98 | 37 | 44% | 3.4 | 16.2% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 5.42 | 5.03 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 26 | 200 | 875 | 142 | 86 | 33 | 44% | 3.4 | 16.2% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 5.42 | 5.03 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gilberto Batista (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.85 | 15.6% | 8.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.47 | 18.6% | 11.1% | 151 | -0.38 | — | — | — |
| Geno Encina R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.22 | 16.5% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .325 | 7.60 | 12.0% | 2.3% | 76 | +3.38 | 4.22 | 200 | 91 |
| Nick Gallagher R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.14 | 17.2% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .310 | 4.49 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 90 | +0.35 | 4.09 | 196 | 89 |
| Simon Mathews R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.51 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.42 | 4.09 | 215 | 88 |
| Kyle Weatherly R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.78 | 14.2% | 7.1% | 1.8% | .307 | 4.39 | 13.3% | 1.6% | 169 | +0.61 | 3.78 | 207 | 85 |
| Cesar Ventura R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.54 | 13.0% | 5.8% | 3.3% | .329 | 5.12 | 13.0% | 0.7% | 39 | +0.58 | 3.79 | 135 | 85 |
| Marc Brakeman R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.85 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .319 | 4.99 | 18.6% | 5.0% | 83 | +1.14 | 3.85 | 156 | 85 |
| Matt Smith R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.70 | 13.0% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .340 | 4.88 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 115 | +1.18 | 3.70 | 163 | 85 |
| A.J. Bogucki R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.95 | 15.5% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .308 | 4.30 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 87 | +0.35 | 3.95 | 142 | 84 |
| Hunter Hayes R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.52 | 13.3% | 9.7% | 2.4% | .307 | 4.64 | 16.7% | 4.2% | 149 | +0.12 | 3.33 | 210 | 84 |
| Connor Mayes R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.68 | 13.4% | 6.8% | 1.5% | .274 | 5.29 | 12.2% | 1.4% | 62 | +1.61 | 3.68 | 105 | 84 |
| Samuel Colmenares R 2025 · 3.78 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.78 | 15.8% | 7.8% | 1.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 123 | 83 |
| David McKay R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.37 | 15.2% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.56 | 22.9% | 12.4% | 211 | +0.19 | 3.29 | 288 | 83 |
| Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.33 | 17.6% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .343 | 6.52 | 19.2% | 11.3% | 197 | +2.19 | 3.27 | 243 | 83 |
| Joshua Torres R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.34 | 12.0% | 8.5% | 2.1% | .308 | 2.67 | 23.4% | 15.2% | 108 | -1.67 | 2.13 | 217 | 83 |
| JeanPierre Ortiz R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.26 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 2.2% | .270 | 4.93 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 37 | +0.67 | 4.26 | 129 | 82 |
| Colton Hock R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.42 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.60 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 102 | -0.82 | 3.41 | 253 | 82 |
| Luis Aguilar R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.82 | 17.7% | 9.6% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 146 | 82 |
| Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .354 | 3.46 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 89 | -1.45 | 3.06 | 165 | 82 |
| Houston Roth R 2028 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.58 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .263 | 4.63 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.05 | 3.57 | 389 | 82 |
| Delvis Alegre R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.45 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .302 | 3.65 | 15.0% | 5.3% | 36 | -0.80 | 3.55 | 185 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 51 | 19.0% | 7.5% | 1.14 | 4.48 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 8 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Luis Cessa ('23) | 8 | 53 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 1.40 | 4.43 |
| Tyler Duffey ('22) | 8 | 59 | 23.0% | 6.8% | 1.25 | 4.57 |
| Matt Wisler ('22) | 8 | 63 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 4.59 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |