Chance Huff

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+WSH	37	0	50	4.29	5.42	19.0%	16.5%	—	K 14.7% · BB 18.9% · FIP 6.30
2025	25	MIX2 levels	43	5	67	3.90	3.68	19.1%	11.3%	—	K 15.4% · BB 12.5% · FIP 4.31
2026	26	MIX2 levels	38	0	45	6.45	4.56	20.8%	17.9%	—	K 17.7% · BB 16.4% · FIP 4.82
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	1	0	1	5.71	5.71	15.8%	16.3%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBWSH	15	0	16	5.62	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	-0.2
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBWSH	18	0	19	5.62	5.69	16.7%	15.5%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJulian Arballo (age 27) · Trey Haley (age 26) · Gregory Infante (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142133vR 125

ERA5.71

FIP5.71

K%15.8%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%-0.6%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	1	10	35	8	1	1	14%	1.4	22.9%	2.9%	20.0%	2.9%	0.93	3.10	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	1	10	35	8	1	1	14%	1.4	22.9%	2.9%	20.0%	2.9%	0.93	3.10	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	9	84	373	57	37	10	32%	3.0	11.8%	11.4%	0.4%	3.7%	6.13	5.57	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	9	84	373	57	37	10	32%	3.0	15.3%	9.9%	5.4%	2.7%	6.13	4.62	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	37	0	50	231	44	38	7	0%	1.4	14.7%	18.9%	-4.3%	3.7%	4.29	6.30	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	37	0	50	231	44	38	7	0%	1.4	14.7%	18.9%	-4.3%	3.7%	4.29	6.30	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	37	0	50	231	44	38	7	0%	1.4	19.0%	16.5%	2.6%	3.0%	4.29	5.42	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	5	67	293	56	33	4	12%	1.6	15.4%	12.5%	2.9%	1.7%	3.90	4.31	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	5	67	293	56	33	4	12%	1.6	15.4%	12.5%	2.9%	1.7%	3.90	4.31	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	5	67	293	56	33	4	12%	1.6	19.1%	11.3%	7.8%	1.4%	3.90	3.68	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	45	212	44	38	3	0%	1.2	17.7%	16.4%	1.3%	2.1%	6.45	4.82	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	45	212	44	38	3	0%	1.2	17.7%	16.4%	1.3%	2.1%	6.45	4.82	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	45	212	44	38	3	0%	1.2	20.8%	17.9%	2.8%	1.4%	6.45	4.56	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	15.8%	16.3%	-0.6%	2.7%	5.71	5.71	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	40	0	42	176	29	28	5	0%	1.0	16.4%	15.7%	0.6%	2.9%	5.62	5.65	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	33	0	34	144	24	22	4	0%	1.0	16.7%	15.5%	1.2%	3.0%	5.62	5.69	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	15	0	16	68	11	11	2	0%	1.1	16.4%	15.7%	0.6%	2.9%	5.62	5.65	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	18	0	19	80	13	12	2	0%	1.1	16.7%	15.5%	1.2%	3.0%	5.62	5.69	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		33	0	35	146	24	23	4	0%	1.1	16.5%	15.6%	1.0%	2.9%	5.62	5.29	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	138	133	23	0%	1.1	16.5%	15.6%	1.0%	2.9%	5.62	5.29	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		153	15	255	1144	168	159	33	10%	1.7	14.7%	13.9%	0.8%	2.9%	5.04	5.18	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	12	200	896	132	124	26	10%	1.7	14.7%	13.9%	0.8%	2.9%	5.04	5.18	-2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 37 IPFIP 4.09 → 4.82 (+0.73)K% 21.8% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.84%	—	×0.810	17.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.94%	—	×1.100	16.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.07%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.09 → 4.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 7 IPFIP 5.77 → 6.67 (+0.91)K% 15.8% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.79%	—	×0.770	12.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	31.58%	—	×1.150	36.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.77 → 6.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 56 IPFIP 3.89 → 4.57 (+0.69)K% 19.4% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.42%	—	×0.810	15.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.98%	—	×1.100	13.18%
HR / BF /BF	1.65%	÷0.963	×1.200	2.06%

Result: FIP 3.89 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 11 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.10 (+0.49)K% 17.6% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.65%	—	×0.770	13.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.84%	—	×1.150	9.02%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.967	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 50 IPFIP 5.24 → 6.30 (+1.07)K% 19.0% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.05%	—	×0.770	14.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.45%	—	×1.150	18.92%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.016	×1.250	3.73%

Result: FIP 5.24 → 6.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 84 IPFIP 4.54 → 5.57 (+1.03)K% 15.3% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.28%	—	×0.770	11.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.92%	—	×1.150	11.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.68%	÷0.913	×1.250	3.67%

Result: FIP 4.54 → 5.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chance Huff (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.71	15.8%	16.3%	2.7%	—	5.67	16.5%	0.9%	76	-0.04	—	—	—
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	89
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	86
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	84
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	83
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	82
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	82
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	82
David Goforth R 2016 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	14.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.333	4.52	13.9%	4.6%	122	-0.16	3.98	256	82
Kyle McMyne R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	12.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	181	82
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	81
Nelson Gonzalez R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.79	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.79	3.42	258	81
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	81
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	81
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	81
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	79
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	79
Jordan Gore R 2022 · 5.37 FIP	27	SU	5.37	15.2%	18.5%	2.2%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	113	79
Conor Grammes R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	18.3%	17.9%	1.3%	.303	5.60	15.3%	-11.6%	22	+1.05	4.11	171	79
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	78
Livan Reinoso R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	15.1%	17.7%	1.5%	.229	5.67	16.1%	-2.1%	99	+0.77	4.36	219	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	16.2%	15.9%	1.10	5.66
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*