Chance Huff — OGILVIE

Chance Huff P Harrisburg Senators

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 126

ERA5.76

FIP5.76

K%14.2%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%-1.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	1	10	35	8	1	1	14%	1.4	22.9%	2.9%	20.0%	2.9%	0.93	3.10	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	1	10	35	8	1	1	14%	1.4	22.9%	2.9%	20.0%	2.9%	0.93	3.10	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	9	84	373	57	37	10	32%	3.0	11.8%	11.4%	0.4%	3.7%	6.13	5.57	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	9	84	373	57	37	10	32%	3.0	11.8%	11.4%	0.4%	3.7%	6.13	5.57	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	9	84	373	57	37	10	32%	3.0	15.3%	9.9%	5.4%	2.7%	6.13	4.62	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	37	0	50	231	44	38	7	0%	1.4	14.7%	18.9%	-4.3%	3.7%	4.29	6.30	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	37	0	50	231	44	38	7	0%	1.4	14.7%	18.9%	-4.3%	3.7%	4.29	6.30	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	37	0	50	231	44	38	7	0%	1.4	19.0%	16.5%	2.6%	3.0%	4.29	5.42	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	5	67	293	56	33	4	12%	1.6	15.4%	12.5%	2.9%	1.7%	3.90	4.31	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	5	67	293	56	33	4	12%	1.6	15.4%	12.5%	2.9%	1.7%	3.90	4.31	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	5	67	293	56	33	4	12%	1.6	19.1%	11.3%	7.8%	1.4%	3.90	3.68	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	38	0	45	212	44	38	3	0%	1.2	17.7%	16.4%	1.3%	2.1%	6.45	4.82	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	38	0	45	212	44	38	3	0%	1.2	17.7%	16.4%	1.3%	2.1%	6.45	4.82	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A+ RAW	WSH	7	0	7	38	6	12	0	0%	1.0	15.8%	31.6%	-15.8%	0.0%	8.59	5.77	—
2026	26	AA RAW	WSH	31	0	37	174	38	26	3	0%	1.2	21.8%	14.9%	6.9%	1.7%	6.03	4.09	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	23	3	3	1	0%	1.1	14.2%	15.3%	-1.2%	2.8%	5.76	5.76	-0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	50	235	47	41	4	—	—	20.1%	17.7%	2.4%	1.5%	6.37	4.92	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	66	0	69	291	44	43	8	0%	1.0	15.1%	14.8%	0.3%	2.9%	5.64	5.65	-0.8
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	64	0	67	282	44	41	8	0%	1.0	15.6%	14.5%	1.1%	3.0%	5.60	5.63	-0.8
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	61	0	64	270	42	39	8	0%	1.0	15.7%	14.5%	1.2%	3.1%	5.63	5.70	-0.8
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	25	0	26	110	17	16	3	0%	1.0	15.1%	14.8%	0.3%	2.9%	5.64	5.65	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	38	0	40	169	26	25	5	0%	1.1	15.6%	14.5%	1.1%	3.0%	5.60	5.63	-0.5
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	43	0	45	190	30	28	6	0%	1.0	15.7%	14.5%	1.2%	3.1%	5.63	5.70	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	469	73	68	14	0%	1.0	15.5%	14.6%	1.0%	3.0%	5.62	5.28	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	131	122	25	0%	1.1	15.5%	14.6%	1.0%	3.0%	5.62	5.28	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		153	15	255	1144	168	159	33	10%	1.7	14.7%	13.9%	0.8%	2.9%	5.04	5.18	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	12	200	896	132	124	26	10%	1.7	14.7%	13.9%	0.8%	2.9%	5.04	5.18	-2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chance Huff (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.76	14.2%	15.3%	2.8%	—	5.66	15.5%	0.9%	200	-0.10	—	—	—
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	89
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	87
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	86
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	84
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	84
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	82
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	82
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	82
Pat Light R 2017 · 4.63 FIP	26	SU	4.63	11.8%	14.1%	1.4%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	172	81
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	81
Jesús Reyes R 2019 · 5.71 FIP	26	SU	5.71	15.9%	15.7%	3.6%	.283	5.11	17.5%	5.6%	118	-0.60	3.85	554	81
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	80
Mark Peterson R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	11.9%	2.4%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	185	80
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	80
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	80
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	79
Yunior Thibo R 2023 · 5.32 FIP	25	SU	5.32	14.3%	15.6%	2.7%	.231	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	110	79
Michael Mertz R 2018 · 5.18 FIP	24	SU	5.18	16.1%	13.9%	3.0%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	133	79
Jake Johansen R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	26	SU	4.65	15.9%	12.1%	2.5%	.273	3.65	12.8%	4.9%	48	-1.00	3.65	162	79
Jake Gozzo R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	16.2%	17.6%	2.0%	.227	4.32	15.6%	-1.3%	32	-0.72	4.32	162	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	15.1%	14.8%	1.13	5.66
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91