Joe Nahas — OGILVIE

Joe Nahas P South Bend Cubs

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%18.5%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs 1	2	2	2	12	4	2	0	100%	0.8	33.3%	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	27.00	2.40	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs 1	2	2	2	12	4	2	0	100%	0.8	33.3%	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	27.00	1.90	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	12	93	398	89	32	17	48%	3.7	17.1%	9.2%	7.8%	5.5%	4.27	5.87	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	12	93	398	89	32	17	48%	3.7	22.4%	8.0%	14.3%	4.3%	4.27	4.60	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	24	5	86	375	74	40	9	21%	3.6	15.2%	12.3%	2.9%	3.2%	4.19	5.13	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	24	5	86	375	74	40	9	21%	3.6	19.7%	10.7%	9.1%	2.4%	4.19	4.13	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	4	72	323	59	38	6	11%	2.0	14.3%	13.3%	1.0%	2.1%	4.98	4.70	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	4	72	323	59	38	6	11%	2.0	14.3%	13.3%	1.0%	2.1%	4.98	4.70	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	4	72	323	59	38	6	11%	2.0	18.3%	11.8%	6.5%	1.9%	4.98	4.12	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	2	69	286	74	26	8	6%	2.2	21.4%	9.2%	12.1%	4.1%	4.02	4.72	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	2	69	286	74	26	8	6%	2.2	21.4%	9.2%	12.1%	4.1%	4.02	4.72	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	2	69	286	74	26	8	6%	2.2	25.9%	9.1%	16.8%	2.8%	4.02	3.59	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	13	0	19	85	12	4	2	0%	1.4	10.9%	5.4%	5.5%	2.7%	6.27	4.33	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	13	0	19	85	12	4	2	0%	1.4	10.9%	5.4%	5.5%	2.7%	6.27	4.33	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	13	0	19	85	12	4	2	0%	1.4	14.1%	4.7%	9.4%	2.4%	6.27	3.85	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	CHC	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	18.5%	8.9%	9.6%	3.1%	4.74	4.74	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CHC	59	0	62	260	49	23	8	0%	1.0	18.9%	9.0%	10.0%	3.1%	4.72	4.74	-0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	57	0	60	252	48	23	8	0%	1.0	19.1%	9.2%	10.0%	3.2%	4.75	4.79	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	CHC	22	0	23	97	18	9	3	0%	1.0	18.9%	9.0%	10.0%	3.1%	4.72	4.74	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	33	0	35	148	28	14	5	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.2%	10.0%	3.2%	4.75	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	0	58	244	46	22	8	0%	1.0	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	3.2%	4.74	4.39	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	159	76	28	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	3.2%	4.74	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		131	25	341	1479	245	159	55	19%	2.6	16.6%	10.7%	5.9%	3.7%	4.57	5.09	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	15	200	868	144	93	32	19%	2.6	16.6%	10.7%	5.9%	3.7%	4.57	5.09	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Nahas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	18.5%	8.9%	3.1%	—	4.76	19.0%	10.0%	121	+0.02	—	—	—
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	80
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	79
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	79
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	78
Jose Campos R 2018 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	14.3%	9.1%	2.9%	.377	6.69	15.5%	4.5%	26	+2.03	3.28	241	78
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	78
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	77
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	77
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	77
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	77
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	77
Spencer Stockton R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	20.2%	10.3%	2.7%	.276	5.46	18.7%	6.2%	63	+1.28	1.93	233	77
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	76
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	76
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	76
Jaycob Deese R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	17.4%	6.8%	4.0%	.309	4.83	13.6%	4.4%	140	+0.15	3.28	208	76
Ryan Halstead R 2018 · 4.08 FIP	26	SU	4.08	18.0%	6.7%	3.0%	.296	3.24	16.1%	8.7%	64	-0.84	3.12	222	76
Micah Dallas R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	23	SW	4.56	15.1%	5.7%	3.6%	.374	4.23	18.2%	9.5%	152	-0.33	3.60	201	76
Kyle Martin R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	18.3%	10.0%	2.9%	.304	3.22	23.0%	10.0%	51	-1.19	3.01	214	76
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	19.0%	9.0%	1.23	4.74
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79