Jordy Vargas

P Spokane Indians

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 153 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.5 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#451ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	19	ACOL	13	13	64	4.22	2.88	26.1%	9.1%	—	K 19.3% · BB 10.7% · FIP 3.74
2025	21	MIX2 levels	14	14	31	7.18	5.21	28.1%	16.2%	—	K 20.7% · BB 19.0% · FIP 6.47
2026	22	A+COL	24	24	109	5.20	4.07	24.9%	13.3%	—	K 19.2% · BB 15.3% · FIP 5.07
2027PROJ	23	MLBCOL	1	1	1	5.39	5.39	20.2%	15.2%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCOL	10	10	56	5.37	5.26	21.3%	13.2%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCOL	11	11	63	5.14	5.03	21.9%	11.8%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 5.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 85%

CompsWill Schomberg (age 23) · Max Bain (age 23) · Trace Bright (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 119

ERA5.39

FIP5.39

K%20.2%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%4.9%

Proj IP129

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$15M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.9M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	11	9	35	142	46	16	0	82%	3.2	22.0%	14.1%	7.9%	0.0%	1.30	3.02	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	11	9	35	142	46	16	0	82%	3.2	32.4%	11.3%	21.1%	0.0%	1.30	1.83	—
2022	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	51	203	64	17	5	85%	3.9	22.1%	10.0%	12.1%	3.4%	2.98	4.35	—
2022	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	11	51	203	64	17	5	85%	3.9	31.5%	8.4%	23.2%	2.5%	2.98	2.87	—
2023	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	13	13	64	264	69	24	4	100%	4.9	19.3%	10.7%	8.6%	1.7%	4.22	3.74	—
2023	19	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	13	13	64	264	69	24	4	100%	4.9	26.1%	9.1%	17.0%	1.5%	4.22	2.88	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	31	160	45	26	6	100%	2.2	20.7%	19.0%	1.7%	4.9%	7.18	6.47	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	31	160	45	26	6	100%	2.2	20.7%	19.0%	1.7%	4.9%	7.18	6.47	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	31	160	45	26	6	100%	2.2	28.1%	16.2%	11.9%	3.8%	7.18	5.21	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	24	24	109	497	124	66	12	100%	4.5	19.2%	15.3%	3.9%	3.0%	5.20	5.07	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	24	24	109	497	124	66	12	100%	4.5	19.2%	15.3%	3.9%	3.0%	5.20	5.07	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	24	24	109	497	124	66	12	100%	4.5	24.9%	13.3%	11.7%	2.4%	5.20	4.07	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	COL	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	20.2%	15.2%	4.9%	3.1%	5.39	5.39	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	23	23	129	545	116	72	17	100%	5.6	21.3%	13.2%	8.1%	3.0%	5.12	5.01	+0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	94	398	87	47	12	100%	5.9	21.9%	11.8%	10.1%	3.0%	4.89	4.78	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	92	387	86	45	12	100%	6.1	22.2%	11.6%	10.7%	3.0%	4.78	4.72	+0.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	88	374	83	43	11	100%	5.9	22.2%	11.5%	10.6%	3.1%	4.76	4.75	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	84	355	78	42	11	100%	6.0	22.1%	11.7%	10.4%	3.2%	4.80	4.83	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	78	330	72	39	11	100%	6.0	21.8%	11.9%	9.9%	3.3%	4.90	4.96	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	71	299	64	37	11	100%	5.9	21.5%	12.2%	9.2%	3.5%	5.05	5.14	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	56	236	50	31	8	100%	5.6	21.3%	13.2%	8.1%	3.5%	5.37	5.26	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	63	266	58	31	9	100%	5.7	21.9%	11.8%	10.1%	3.5%	5.14	5.03	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	73	308	68	36	11	100%	6.1	22.2%	11.6%	10.7%	3.5%	5.03	4.97	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	75	317	70	37	11	100%	6.2	22.2%	11.5%	10.6%	3.5%	5.02	5.01	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	75	317	70	37	12	100%	6.2	22.1%	11.7%	10.4%	3.6%	5.06	5.09	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	71	300	65	36	11	100%	5.9	21.8%	11.9%	9.9%	3.8%	5.18	5.24	+0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	65	274	59	34	11	100%	5.9	21.5%	12.2%	9.2%	4.0%	5.34	5.43	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		81	81	477	2016	441	241	73	100%	5.9	21.9%	11.9%	9.9%	3.6%	5.15	4.76	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	185	101	31	100%	5.9	21.9%	11.9%	9.9%	3.6%	5.15	4.76	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		75	71	290	1266	256	175	34	95%	3.9	20.2%	13.8%	6.4%	2.7%	4.34	4.62	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	49	200	872	176	121	24	95%	3.9	20.2%	13.8%	6.4%	2.7%	4.34	4.62	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Spokane Indians · 109 IPFIP 4.00 → 5.07 (+1.07)K% 24.9% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.95%	—	×0.770	19.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.28%	—	×1.150	15.27%
HR / BF /BF	2.41%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.02%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.00 → 5.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Spokane Indians · 21 IPFIP 5.36 → 6.72 (+1.36)K% 25.5% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.45%	—	×0.770	19.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.09%	—	×1.150	21.95%
HR / BF /BF	3.64%	÷0.999	×1.250	4.55%

Result: FIP 5.36 → 6.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Rockies · 11 IPFIP 3.69 → 5.90 (+2.21)K% 34.0% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.00%	—	×0.680	23.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.250	12.50%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷0.970	×1.400	5.77%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 3.69 → 5.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFresno Grizzlies · 64 IPFIP 2.88 → 3.74 (+0.86)K% 26.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.14%	—	×0.740	19.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.180	10.73%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.186	×1.300	1.66%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 2.88 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFresno Grizzlies · 25 IPFIP 5.37 → 7.15 (+1.77)K% 23.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.740	17.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.180	14.75%
HR / BF /BF	4.81%	÷0.947	×1.300	6.60%

Result: FIP 5.37 → 7.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Rockies · 27 IPFIP 0.20 → 1.42 (+1.22)K% 40.4% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.40%	—	×0.680	27.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.04%	—	×1.250	5.05%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.918	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.20 → 1.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Colorado · 35 IPFIP 1.79 → 3.02 (+1.23)K% 32.4% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.39%	—	×0.680	22.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.27%	—	×1.250	14.08%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.138	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.79 → 3.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordy Vargas (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.86	21.7%	9.5%	315	-0.53	—	—	—
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	88
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	88
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	86
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	84
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	83
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	83
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	83
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	83
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	83
Michael YaSenka R 2021 · 5.98 FIP	23	SP	5.98	18.1%	15.0%	4.6%	.288	5.95	18.8%	6.1%	58	-0.03	5.95	154	83
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	83
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2024 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP	5.25	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.92	22.8%	10.9%	221	-0.33	4.16	324	82
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	82
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	82
Zach Messinger R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	23	SP	5.26	20.4%	14.3%	3.8%	.278	3.91	18.3%	8.6%	289	-1.35	3.70	470	82
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	82
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	82
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	81
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	81
Austin Brice R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP	4.61	18.5%	13.7%	2.4%	.295	3.72	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.89	3.42	542	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	96	21.5%	12.6%	1.21	4.99
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28
Todd Wellemeyer ('10)	3.1	77	16.9%	11.2%	1.26	4.83