Jordy Vargas — OGILVIE

Jordy Vargas P Spokane Indians

+0.1 WAR

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 153 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.3 · 2030

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.6%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%11.0%

IP31

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2030

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Colorado	11	9	35	142	46	16	0	22.0%	14.1%	0.0%	1.30	3.02	+0.8
2022	18	A	Fresno Grizzlies	13	11	51	203	64	17	5	22.1%	10.0%	3.4%	2.98	4.36	+0.3
2023	19	A	Fresno Grizzlies	13	13	64	264	69	24	4	19.3%	10.7%	1.6%	4.22	3.72	+0.9
2025	21	A+	Spokane Indians	14	14	31	160	45	26	6	20.7%	19.0%	4.9%	7.18	6.47	-0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A+	Spokane Indians	2	2	8	31	10	6	1	—	—	—	2.25	—	—
ROS	22	MLB	COL	31	—	31	129	29	15	4	22.6%	11.6%	3.1%	4.76	4.76	+0.1
2026 Total	22	MLB	COL	—	—	39	160	39	21	5	24.4%	13.1%	3.2%	4.24	3.77	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	COL	32	—	32	134	31	14	4	23.4%	10.5%	3.1%	4.61	4.53	+0.2
2028	24	MLB	COL	32	—	32	137	33	14	4	23.9%	9.9%	3.0%	4.46	4.38	+0.2
2029	25	MLB	COL	33	—	33	139	34	13	4	24.3%	9.5%	3.0%	4.35	4.29	+0.2
2030	26	MLB	COL	33	—	33	139	34	13	4	24.5%	9.4%	3.0%	4.30	4.27	+0.3
2031	27	MLB	COL	33	—	33	138	34	13	4	24.5%	9.4%	3.0%	4.29	4.28	+0.2
2032	28	MLB	COL	32	—	32	136	33	13	4	24.4%	9.5%	3.1%	4.30	4.30	+0.2
2033	29	MLB	COL	32	—	32	133	32	13	4	24.3%	9.6%	3.1%	4.33	4.35	+0.2
2034	30	MLB	COL	31	—	31	129	31	13	4	24.1%	9.7%	3.2%	4.38	4.41	+0.2
2035	31	MLB	COL	30	—	30	125	30	12	4	23.9%	9.8%	3.2%	4.44	4.48	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			53	49	189	800	170	105	20	21.3%	13.1%	2.5%	3.76	4.34	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—			56	52	200	845	180	111	21	21.3%	13.1%	2.5%	3.76	4.34	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordy Vargas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	22.6%	11.6%	3.1%	—	4.40	23.9%	13.9%	97	-0.36	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.92	367	92
Kyle Zurak R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.19	181	90
Jordan Mikel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.17	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.32	3.05	195	90
Tyler Mitzel R 2027 · 4.31 FIP	23	SU	4.31	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.11	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.20	4.01	142	90
Ricardo Velez R 2028 · 4.43 FIP	24	SU	4.43	22.4%	10.9%	3.3%	.261	3.88	20.1%	9.3%	114	-0.55	3.82	142	89
Peyton Williams R 2027 · 3.66 FIP	23	SU	3.66	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.87	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.21	3.66	123	89
Austin Smith R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	89
Kyle Marman R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	89
Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	22	SU	4.20	21.9%	9.0%	3.3%	.278	5.95	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.75	4.20	104	89
Caleb Freeman R 2025 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	198	89
Jonathan Brand R 2027 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	3.95	18.2%	9.1%	96	-0.00	3.37	134	89
Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	22	SU	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	89
Cole Gordon R 2027 · 4.10 FIP	23	SU	4.10	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.09	4.10	112	88
TJ Shook R 2027 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.99	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.09	3.35	394	88
Ray Gaither R 2028 · 4.86 FIP	24	SU	4.86	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.51	18.6%	4.7%	123	-0.35	4.05	164	88
Hunter Dula R 2027 · 3.90 FIP	23	SU	3.90	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.56	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.66	3.90	132	88
Harrison Cohen R 2028 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	3.00	24.2%	12.6%	70	-1.56	2.12	117	88
Owen Holt R 2027 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	20.7%	10.2%	2.1%	.258	4.53	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.72	3.81	145	88
Jacob Wallace R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	26.6%	13.1%	3.3%	.316	4.79	23.8%	7.0%	167	+0.48	3.93	258	87
Nic Enright R 2026 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.50	249	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.0M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.0M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.6M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.7M	+0.2	$1M	+$0.3M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.2	$1M	+$0.1M
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$2M