Jordy Vargas
P
Spokane Indians
Age 22
RHP
6'3" / 153 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION76 act + 45 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 120
ERA5.31
FIP5.31
K%21.2%
BB%15.0%
K-BB%6.2%
ROS IP45
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 11 | 9 | 35 | 142 | 46 | 16 | 0 | 82% | 3.2 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 7.9% | 0.0% | 1.30 | 3.02 | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 11 | 9 | 35 | 142 | 46 | 16 | 0 | 82% | 3.2 | 32.4% | 11.3% | 21.1% | 0.0% | 1.30 | 1.83 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 11 | 51 | 203 | 64 | 17 | 5 | 85% | 3.9 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 2.98 | 4.46 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 11 | 51 | 203 | 64 | 17 | 5 | 85% | 3.9 | 31.5% | 8.4% | 23.2% | 2.5% | 2.98 | 2.87 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 13 | 13 | 64 | 264 | 69 | 24 | 4 | 100% | 4.9 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 1.4% | 4.22 | 3.61 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 13 | 13 | 64 | 264 | 69 | 24 | 4 | 100% | 4.9 | 26.1% | 9.1% | 17.0% | 1.5% | 4.22 | 2.88 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 31 | 160 | 45 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 2.2 | 20.7% | 19.0% | 1.7% | 5.0% | 7.18 | 6.50 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 31 | 160 | 45 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 2.2 | 28.1% | 16.2% | 11.9% | 3.8% | 7.18 | 5.21 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 17 | 17 | 76 | 346 | 84 | 49 | 9 | 100% | 4.5 | 18.7% | 16.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 5.68 | 5.37 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | COL | 9 | 9 | 45 | 188 | 40 | 28 | 6 | 100% | 5.0 | 21.2% | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 5.31 | 5.31 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.2% | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 5.57 | 5.57 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | COL | — | — | 121 | 534 | 124 | 77 | 15 | — | — | 23.2% | 14.5% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 5.55 | 5.35 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.2% | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 5.57 | 5.19 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 46 | 195 | 44 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.4% | 13.0% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 5.04 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 46 | 24 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 48 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 48 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | COL | 8 | 8 | 47 | 200 | 47 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.6% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | COL | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 22 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.4% | 13.0% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 5.30 | 5.19 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | COL | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 32 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 5.06 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | COL | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 39 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 3.5% | 4.89 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | COL | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 42 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | COL | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 43 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.6% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 3.5% | 4.81 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 31 | 31 | 180 | 761 | 177 | 86 | 27 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.94 | 4.49 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 196 | 95 | 30 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.94 | 4.49 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 68 | 64 | 257 | 1115 | 225 | 155 | 30 | 94% | 3.8 | 20.2% | 13.9% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.65 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 50 | 200 | 867 | 175 | 121 | 24 | 94% | 3.8 | 20.2% | 13.9% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.65 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jordy Vargas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.31 | 21.2% | 15.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.72 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 142 | -0.59 | — | — | — |
| TJ Shook R 2027 · 4.82 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.82 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.12 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.30 | 3.36 | 432 | 89 |
| Christian Roa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.02 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .321 | 4.92 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 260 | -0.10 | 4.38 | 406 | 87 |
| Khristian Curtis R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.39 | 18.8% | 14.4% | 3.7% | .275 | 4.58 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 183 | -0.81 | 4.52 | 258 | 86 |
| Ryan Harvey R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.98 | 16.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .294 | 3.81 | 16.9% | 3.9% | 66 | -1.17 | 3.56 | 112 | 86 |
| Winyer Chourio R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.50 | 23.5% | 16.3% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 156 | 85 |
| Jared Lyons R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.1% | 15.3% | 1.9% | .345 | 3.85 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 164 | -0.55 | 3.27 | 218 | 83 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.47 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.54 | 3.95 | 411 | 83 |
| Kohl Franklin R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.37 | 17.8% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .320 | 5.45 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 105 | +0.08 | 5.37 | 174 | 83 |
| Dane Acker R 2027 · 5.44 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.44 | 19.3% | 15.2% | 3.7% | .284 | 4.44 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 215 | -1.00 | 4.23 | 257 | 83 |
| Alex McFarlane R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.91 | 21.9% | 19.2% | 2.2% | .344 | 4.02 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 108 | -0.89 | 3.64 | 159 | 83 |
| Will Bednar R 2026 · 5.57 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.57 | 20.5% | 14.1% | 4.4% | .173 | 4.70 | 26.6% | 6.3% | 95 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 172 | 83 |
| Reid Schaller R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.22 | 16.3% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .241 | 4.48 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 87 | -0.74 | 3.49 | 186 | 82 |
| Anderson Brito R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.73 | 22.2% | 16.5% | 2.6% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 135 | 82 |
| J.P. Massey R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.91 | 18.2% | 16.0% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.03 | 15.9% | 0.6% | 115 | +0.12 | 4.62 | 195 | 82 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .331 | 6.04 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.32 | 4.72 | 283 | 82 |
| Max Bain R 2027 · 5.37 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.37 | 20.5% | 15.2% | 3.8% | .291 | 6.65 | 16.7% | -3.9% | 81 | +1.28 | 5.16 | 174 | 82 |
| Nate Dohm R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.59 | 17.7% | 2.6% | 40 | -0.27 | 4.59 | 115 | 81 |
| Jacob Odle R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 25.2% | 17.0% | 3.3% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 104 | 80 |
| Peyton Pallette R 2026 · 5.97 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.97 | 18.0% | 15.1% | 4.5% | .254 | 4.31 | 23.6% | 11.6% | 183 | -1.66 | 3.80 | 255 | 80 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 47 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 1.18 | 4.81 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |