Jordy Vargas — OGILVIE

Jordy Vargas P Spokane Indians

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 153 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 119

ERA5.40

FIP5.40

K%21.2%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%5.5%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4555

CTRL5050

CMD3050

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	11	9	35	142	46	16	0	82%	3.2	22.0%	14.1%	7.9%	0.0%	1.30	3.02	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	11	9	35	142	46	16	0	82%	3.2	32.4%	11.3%	21.1%	0.0%	1.30	1.83	—
2022	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	51	203	64	17	5	85%	3.9	22.1%	10.0%	12.1%	3.4%	2.98	4.35	—
2022	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	11	51	203	64	17	5	85%	3.9	31.5%	8.4%	23.2%	2.5%	2.98	2.87	—
2023	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	13	13	64	264	69	24	4	100%	4.9	19.3%	10.7%	8.6%	1.7%	4.22	3.74	—
2023	19	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	13	13	64	264	69	24	4	100%	4.9	19.3%	10.7%	8.6%	1.7%	4.22	3.74	—
2023	19	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	13	13	64	264	69	24	4	100%	4.9	26.1%	9.1%	17.0%	1.5%	4.22	2.88	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	31	160	45	26	6	100%	2.2	20.7%	19.0%	1.7%	4.9%	7.18	6.47	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	31	160	45	26	6	100%	2.2	20.7%	19.0%	1.7%	4.9%	7.18	6.47	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	31	160	45	26	6	100%	2.2	28.1%	16.2%	11.9%	3.8%	7.18	5.21	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	24	24	109	497	124	66	12	100%	4.5	19.2%	15.3%	3.9%	3.0%	5.20	5.07	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	24	24	109	497	124	66	12	100%	4.5	19.2%	15.3%	3.9%	3.0%	5.20	5.07	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	COL	24	24	109	497	124	66	12	100%	4.5	24.9%	13.3%	11.7%	2.4%	5.20	4.00	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	COL	21	21	111	467	104	63	14	100%	5.3	22.3%	13.4%	8.8%	3.1%	5.11	4.99	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	114	479	109	57	15	100%	5.7	22.8%	11.9%	10.9%	3.0%	4.86	4.73	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	115	485	112	53	15	100%	5.7	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	3.0%	4.68	4.57	+0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	115	485	113	53	15	100%	6.0	23.4%	10.8%	12.5%	3.0%	4.59	4.54	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	113	478	112	52	15	100%	6.0	23.3%	10.9%	12.4%	3.1%	4.58	4.58	+0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	110	464	108	51	15	100%	6.1	23.2%	11.1%	12.1%	3.2%	4.63	4.66	+0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	105	443	102	50	15	100%	6.2	23.0%	11.3%	11.7%	3.3%	4.73	4.79	+0.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	99	416	94	48	15	100%	6.2	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	3.5%	4.88	4.97	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	55	232	52	31	8	100%	5.5	22.3%	13.4%	8.8%	3.5%	5.37	5.25	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	79	334	76	40	12	100%	5.6	22.8%	11.9%	10.9%	3.5%	5.11	4.98	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	93	393	91	43	14	100%	5.8	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	3.5%	4.93	4.82	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	17	17	100	422	99	46	15	100%	5.9	23.4%	10.8%	12.5%	3.5%	4.84	4.79	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	17	17	102	431	101	47	15	100%	6.0	23.3%	10.9%	12.4%	3.5%	4.84	4.84	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	17	17	101	426	99	47	16	100%	5.9	23.2%	11.1%	12.1%	3.7%	4.90	4.93	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	98	414	95	47	16	100%	6.1	23.0%	11.3%	11.7%	3.8%	5.01	5.07	+0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	92	388	88	45	16	100%	6.1	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	4.1%	5.17	5.26	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		123	123	721	3045	701	346	111	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.4%	11.6%	3.6%	5.00	4.60	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	194	96	31	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.4%	11.6%	3.6%	5.00	4.60	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		75	71	290	1266	256	175	34	95%	3.9	20.2%	13.8%	6.4%	2.7%	4.34	4.62	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	49	200	872	176	121	24	95%	3.9	20.2%	13.8%	6.4%	2.7%	4.34	4.62	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordy Vargas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.40	21.2%	15.8%	3.1%	—	4.76	22.8%	10.7%	339	-0.64	—	—	—
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	89
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	85
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	84
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	83
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.17	438	83
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	83
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	83
Max Bain R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	23	SP	5.21	20.5%	15.2%	3.5%	.291	6.70	16.7%	-3.9%	81	+1.49	5.21	174	83
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	83
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	82
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	82
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.68	198	82
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	82
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	82
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	80
Damon Casetta-Stubbs R 2021 · 6.00 FIP	22	SP	6.00	23.1%	17.1%	4.9%	.284	6.77	10.5%	-6.5%	37	+0.77	4.29	122	80
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	198	80
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	80
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	80
Hunter Parks R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP	5.15	18.9%	19.3%	2.2%	.265	5.04	20.3%	3.9%	136	-0.11	4.62	298	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	103	22.9%	11.7%	1.22	4.79
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36