Dahian Santos
P
New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Age 23
RHP
5'11" / 160 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 84 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 115
ERA5.07
FIP5.07
K%22.7%
BB%15.0%
K-BB%7.7%
ROS IP84
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 9 | 40 | 175 | 58 | 16 | 6 | 75% | 3.4 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 4.7% | 5.58 | 4.91 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 9 | 40 | 175 | 58 | 16 | 6 | 75% | 3.4 | 33.1% | 9.1% | 24.0% | 3.4% | 5.58 | 3.35 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 18 | 86 | 369 | 142 | 43 | 11 | 78% | 3.7 | 28.7% | 13.7% | 15.0% | 4.5% | 4.50 | 4.89 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 18 | 86 | 369 | 142 | 43 | 11 | 78% | 3.7 | 38.5% | 11.7% | 26.8% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 2.96 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 12 | 12 | 48 | 206 | 56 | 27 | 5 | 100% | 4.0 | 20.9% | 15.1% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 3.54 | 4.35 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 12 | 12 | 48 | 206 | 56 | 27 | 5 | 100% | 4.0 | 27.2% | 13.1% | 14.1% | 2.4% | 3.54 | 3.80 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 3 | 36 | 158 | 48 | 27 | 5 | 15% | 1.8 | 20.9% | 18.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 5.55 | 4.93 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 3 | 36 | 158 | 48 | 27 | 5 | 15% | 1.8 | 30.4% | 17.1% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 5.55 | 4.50 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | TOR | 17 | 17 | 90 | 380 | 86 | 57 | 11 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.7% | 15.0% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 5.07 | 5.07 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 21 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 119 | 66 | 14 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.8% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 4.75 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 24 | 24 | 138 | 581 | 142 | 71 | 17 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.4% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.56 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 25 | 25 | 150 | 632 | 156 | 76 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.7% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.50 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 25 | 25 | 148 | 623 | 154 | 74 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.7% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 24 | 24 | 143 | 604 | 148 | 73 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.5% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.61 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 23 | 23 | 137 | 577 | 140 | 71 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.3% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.74 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 21 | 21 | 128 | 543 | 130 | 68 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.9% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.92 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 20 | 20 | 120 | 506 | 119 | 66 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 5.01 | 5.12 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 18 | 18 | 111 | 468 | 108 | 63 | 18 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.1% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 5.21 | 5.35 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 52 | 29 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.8% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 16 | 16 | 92 | 388 | 95 | 48 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.4% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.56 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 124 | 60 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.7% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.50 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 131 | 63 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.7% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 21 | 21 | 128 | 540 | 133 | 65 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.5% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.61 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 127 | 64 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.3% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.74 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 120 | 63 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.9% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.92 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 111 | 61 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 5.01 | 5.12 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 17 | 17 | 104 | 439 | 101 | 59 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.1% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 5.21 | 5.35 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 163 | 163 | 975 | 4115 | 994 | 513 | 132 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.2% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.40 | +11.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 204 | 105 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.2% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 67 | 42 | 210 | 908 | 224 | 128 | 33 | 63% | 3.1 | 24.7% | 14.1% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 4.66 | 4.78 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 40 | 200 | 863 | 213 | 122 | 31 | 63% | 3.1 | 24.7% | 14.1% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 4.66 | 4.78 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dahian Santos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.07 | 22.7% | 15.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.59 | 24.4% | 11.9% | 406 | -0.48 | — | — | — |
| Dean Deetz R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 22.2% | 13.7% | 2.5% | .298 | 4.84 | 29.1% | 10.7% | 68 | +0.50 | 2.64 | 281 | 88 |
| Nolan DeVos R 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.07 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 1.8% | .302 | 6.16 | 17.9% | 6.0% | 73 | +2.09 | 4.07 | 172 | 84 |
| Ben Casparius R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.20 | 20.6% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .306 | 4.44 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 274 | -0.76 | 3.49 | 364 | 84 |
| Adrian Chaidez R 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.66 | 20.1% | 15.0% | 4.3% | .281 | 4.68 | 19.4% | 3.1% | 45 | -0.98 | 4.68 | 144 | 83 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2027 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 83 |
| Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 2.0% | .310 | 6.03 | 16.4% | 3.7% | 225 | +1.83 | 2.73 | 357 | 83 |
| Gabriel Encinas R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 20.9% | 17.0% | 1.8% | .291 | 5.52 | 17.3% | -10.3% | 47 | +1.07 | 2.92 | 145 | 82 |
| Cade Winquest R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .299 | 3.91 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 158 | -0.45 | 3.34 | 236 | 82 |
| James McArthur R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.37 | 18.8% | 15.5% | 3.5% | .304 | 4.20 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 131 | -1.17 | 3.53 | 352 | 82 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 82 |
| Brandon Decker R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.90 | 18.3% | 12.6% | 1.4% | .296 | 4.11 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 33 | +0.21 | 3.90 | 117 | 81 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.55 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.24 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 143 | -0.31 | 3.72 | 283 | 81 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 81 |
| Aaron Hernandez R 2025 · 4.92 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.92 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .340 | 4.59 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 111 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 194 | 80 |
| Grant Ford R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.34 | 20.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | .300 | 4.57 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 112 | -0.77 | 3.96 | 188 | 80 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 79 |
| Jackson Finley R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.04 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 1.5% | .361 | 3.85 | 20.7% | 11.4% | 49 | -0.19 | 3.85 | 132 | 79 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 20.8% | 13.7% | 2.9% | .309 | 3.76 | 24.1% | 14.7% | 238 | -0.91 | 2.15 | 702 | 79 |
| R.J. Freure R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.19 | 21.7% | 18.5% | 2.9% | .286 | 5.88 | 21.4% | 4.2% | 107 | +0.69 | 5.19 | 196 | 79 |
| Ramsey David R 2027 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.23 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | .219 | 7.27 | 19.1% | -0.7% | 30 | +2.04 | 5.23 | 107 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 128 | 24.1% | 12.7% | 1.22 | 4.77 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |
| Vince Velasquez ('23) | 9 | 85 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 1.48 | 4.88 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |