Dahian Santos — OGILVIE

Dahian Santos P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 23 RHP 5'11" / 160 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%22.7%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5060

CMD3040

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	40	175	58	16	6	75%	3.4	24.2%	10.1%	14.1%	4.7%	5.58	4.91	—
2021	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	9	40	175	58	16	6	75%	3.4	33.1%	9.1%	24.0%	3.4%	5.58	3.35	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	18	86	369	142	43	11	78%	3.7	28.7%	13.7%	15.0%	4.1%	4.50	4.69	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	18	86	369	142	43	11	78%	3.7	38.5%	11.7%	26.8%	3.0%	4.50	2.96	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	12	12	48	206	56	27	5	100%	4.0	20.9%	15.1%	5.9%	2.4%	3.54	4.57	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	12	12	48	206	56	27	5	100%	4.0	20.9%	15.1%	5.9%	2.4%	3.54	4.57	—
2023	20	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	12	12	48	206	56	27	5	100%	4.0	27.2%	13.1%	14.1%	2.4%	3.54	3.80	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	3	36	158	48	27	5	15%	1.8	20.9%	18.3%	2.6%	2.6%	5.55	5.09	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	3	36	158	48	27	5	15%	1.8	20.9%	18.3%	2.6%	2.6%	5.55	5.09	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	3	36	158	48	27	5	15%	1.8	30.4%	17.1%	13.3%	3.2%	5.55	4.50	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	TOR	1	1	7	30	7	5	1	100%	7.0	22.7%	15.8%	6.9%	3.0%	5.19	5.19	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	118	499	119	69	15	100%	5.6	23.8%	13.9%	9.9%	2.9%	4.94	4.84	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	24	24	138	581	142	74	17	100%	5.7	24.4%	12.7%	11.8%	2.9%	4.73	4.63	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	25	25	150	632	156	78	18	100%	6.0	24.7%	12.4%	12.4%	2.9%	4.62	4.56	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	25	25	148	623	154	77	19	100%	5.9	24.7%	12.3%	12.3%	3.0%	4.60	4.59	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	24	24	143	604	148	75	19	100%	6.0	24.5%	12.5%	12.1%	3.1%	4.65	4.68	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	137	577	140	73	19	100%	5.9	24.3%	12.7%	11.6%	3.2%	4.75	4.81	+0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	128	543	130	71	19	100%	6.1	23.9%	13.0%	10.9%	3.4%	4.89	4.99	-0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	120	506	119	68	18	100%	6.0	23.5%	13.4%	10.2%	3.7%	5.07	5.19	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	52	220	52	30	6	100%	5.8	23.8%	13.9%	9.9%	2.9%	4.94	4.84	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	92	388	95	49	11	100%	5.8	24.4%	12.7%	11.8%	2.9%	4.73	4.63	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	119	502	124	62	15	100%	6.0	24.7%	12.4%	12.4%	2.9%	4.62	4.56	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	21	21	126	532	131	66	16	100%	6.0	24.7%	12.3%	12.3%	3.0%	4.60	4.59	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	21	21	128	540	133	67	17	100%	6.1	24.5%	12.5%	12.1%	3.1%	4.65	4.68	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	21	21	124	524	127	66	17	100%	5.9	24.3%	12.7%	11.6%	3.2%	4.75	4.81	+0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	20	20	119	502	120	65	17	100%	6.0	23.9%	13.0%	10.9%	3.4%	4.89	4.99	-0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	TOR	19	19	112	473	111	63	17	100%	5.9	23.5%	13.4%	10.2%	3.7%	5.07	5.19	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		146	146	871	3677	893	469	116	100%	6.0	24.3%	12.8%	11.5%	3.2%	4.77	4.40	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	205	108	27	100%	6.0	24.3%	12.8%	11.5%	3.2%	4.77	4.40	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		67	42	210	908	224	128	33	63%	3.1	24.7%	14.1%	10.6%	3.6%	4.66	4.77	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	40	200	863	213	122	31	63%	3.1	24.7%	14.1%	10.6%	3.6%	4.66	4.77	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dahian Santos (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	22.7%	15.8%	3.0%	—	4.67	24.4%	11.5%	406	-0.52	—	—	—
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	86
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	85
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	84
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	83
Adrian Chaidez R 2022 · 5.75 FIP	23	SP-	5.75	20.1%	15.0%	4.5%	.281	4.96	19.4%	3.1%	45	-0.79	4.96	144	83
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.73	16.1%	4.0%	225	+1.44	2.86	357	83
Ben Casparius R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	23	SP-	5.29	20.6%	13.2%	4.1%	.306	4.39	21.4%	10.8%	274	-0.90	3.36	374	82
Gabriel Encinas R 2015 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	20.9%	17.0%	1.4%	.291	5.46	17.3%	-10.3%	47	+1.20	2.92	145	82
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	81
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	81
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	80
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	80
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	80
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	79
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	79
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	79
Nic Swanson R 2022 · 6.18 FIP	23	SP-	6.18	18.5%	15.9%	4.8%	.302	4.74	18.6%	7.7%	284	-1.44	4.29	438	79
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	78
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	78
Devereaux Harrison R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	17.6%	11.3%	3.6%	.252	4.76	16.6%	4.4%	294	-0.28	4.43	388	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.9	130	24.2%	13.0%	1.21	4.80
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48