Dahian Santos

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 24 RHP 5'11" / 160 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP40OGV rank#380ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	19	MIX2 levels	23	18	86	4.50	2.96	38.5%	11.7%	—	K 28.7% · BB 13.7% · FIP 4.69
2023	20	A+TOR	12	12	48	3.54	3.80	27.2%	13.1%	—	K 20.9% · BB 15.1% · FIP 4.57
2024	21	MIX3 levels	20	3	36	5.55	4.50	30.4%	17.1%	—	K 20.9% · BB 18.3% · FIP 5.09
2025	22	No MLB games played
2026	23	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	24	MLBTOR	1	1	2	4.73	4.73	23.6%	12.7%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBTOR	7	7	40	4.60	4.54	24.3%	11.7%	0.4
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBTOR	10	10	63	4.52	4.47	24.6%	11.3%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.8M2034Ext$0.7M+1

CompsRay Gaither (age 24) · Sean Mooney (age 24) · Nolan DeVos (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%23.6%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%10.9%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	40	175	58	16	6	75%	3.4	24.2%	10.1%	14.1%	4.7%	5.58	4.91	—
2021	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	9	40	175	58	16	6	75%	3.4	33.1%	9.1%	24.0%	3.4%	5.58	3.35	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	18	86	369	142	43	11	78%	3.7	28.7%	13.7%	15.0%	4.1%	4.50	4.69	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	18	86	369	142	43	11	78%	3.7	38.5%	11.7%	26.8%	3.0%	4.50	2.96	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	12	12	48	206	56	27	5	100%	4.0	20.9%	15.1%	5.9%	2.4%	3.54	4.57	—
2023	20	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	12	12	48	206	56	27	5	100%	4.0	27.2%	13.1%	14.1%	2.4%	3.54	3.80	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	3	36	158	48	27	5	15%	1.8	20.9%	18.3%	2.6%	2.6%	5.55	5.09	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	3	36	158	48	27	5	15%	1.8	20.9%	18.3%	2.6%	2.6%	5.55	5.09	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	3	36	158	48	27	5	15%	1.8	30.4%	17.1%	13.3%	3.2%	5.55	4.50	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TOR	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	23.6%	12.7%	10.9%	3.0%	4.73	4.73	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	91	385	93	45	11	100%	5.7	24.3%	11.7%	12.6%	3.0%	4.60	4.54	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	94	398	98	45	12	100%	5.9	24.6%	11.3%	13.2%	3.0%	4.52	4.47	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	90	381	93	43	12	100%	6.0	24.4%	11.2%	13.2%	3.0%	4.51	4.50	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	86	361	88	41	11	100%	6.1	24.2%	11.3%	13.0%	3.1%	4.55	4.58	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	79	335	80	39	11	100%	6.1	24.0%	11.5%	12.5%	3.3%	4.65	4.71	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	72	303	72	36	11	100%	6.0	23.7%	11.8%	11.9%	3.5%	4.79	4.89	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	64	270	63	33	10	100%	5.8	23.3%	12.2%	11.1%	3.7%	4.97	5.09	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	40	169	41	20	5	100%	5.7	24.3%	11.7%	12.6%	3.0%	4.60	4.54	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	63	266	65	30	8	100%	6.3	24.6%	11.3%	13.2%	3.0%	4.52	4.47	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	70	296	72	33	9	100%	5.8	24.4%	11.2%	13.2%	3.0%	4.51	4.50	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	72	304	74	34	10	100%	6.0	24.2%	11.3%	13.0%	3.1%	4.55	4.58	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	70	296	71	34	10	100%	5.8	24.0%	11.5%	12.5%	3.3%	4.65	4.71	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	65	274	65	32	10	100%	5.9	23.7%	11.8%	11.9%	3.5%	4.79	4.89	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	59	249	58	30	9	100%	5.9	23.3%	12.2%	11.1%	3.7%	4.97	5.09	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	73	438	1849	445	213	60	100%	6.0	24.1%	11.5%	12.5%	3.2%	4.65	4.30	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	203	97	27	100%	6.0	24.1%	11.5%	12.5%	3.2%	4.65	4.30	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		67	42	210	908	224	128	33	63%	3.1	24.7%	14.1%	10.6%	3.6%	4.66	4.77	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	40	200	863	213	122	31	63%	3.1	24.7%	14.1%	10.6%	3.6%	4.66	4.77	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 27 IPFIP 4.40 → 5.09 (+0.69)K% 25.8% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.83%	—	×0.810	20.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×1.100	18.33%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷1.145	×1.200	2.62%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 129).

Result: FIP 4.40 → 5.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 7 IPFIP 5.55 → 7.96 (+2.41)K% 41.9% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.94%	—	×0.740	31.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.35%	—	×1.180	22.84%
HR / BF /BF	6.45%	÷1.003	×1.300	8.36%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 5.55 → 7.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Vancouver Canadians · 48 IPFIP 3.80 → 4.57 (+0.77)K% 27.2% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.18%	—	×0.770	20.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.11%	—	×1.150	15.07%
HR / BF /BF	2.43%	÷1.253	×1.250	2.42%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).

Result: FIP 3.80 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADunedin Blue Jays · 73 IPFIP 2.63 → 4.35 (+1.72)K% 39.3% → 29.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.34%	—	×0.740	29.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.15%	—	×1.180	13.15%
HR / BF /BF	2.62%	÷0.916	×1.300	3.72%

Result: FIP 2.63 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Vancouver Canadians · 13 IPFIP 4.55 → 6.29 (+1.74)K% 34.4% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.38%	—	×0.770	26.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.06%	—	×1.150	16.17%
HR / BF /BF	4.69%	÷0.952	×1.250	6.16%

Result: FIP 4.55 → 6.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 35 IPFIP 2.96 → 4.91 (+1.95)K% 35.6% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.57%	—	×0.680	24.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.05%	—	×1.250	10.07%
HR / BF /BF	3.36%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.70%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.96 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADunedin Blue Jays · 5 IPFIP 5.54 → 6.92 (+1.38)K% 19.2% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.23%	—	×0.740	14.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.38%	—	×1.180	18.15%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.010	×1.300	4.95%

Result: FIP 5.54 → 6.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dahian Santos (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.50	24.4%	13.0%	276	-0.23	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	83
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	82
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	81
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	81
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	81
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	4.95	18.3%	5.2%	131	-0.32	4.34	382	80
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	694	79
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	79
Matt Ball R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP-	4.72	21.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	312	79
Kyle Nicolas R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	23.7%	11.5%	3.7%	.325	3.67	23.2%	9.7%	176	-0.94	3.25	464	78
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	78
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	78
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	78
Houston Roth R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	19.3%	11.2%	2.8%	.306	5.01	21.1%	8.6%	168	+0.57	3.79	406	78
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	78
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	78
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	78
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	77
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	77
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	83	24.1%	11.7%	1.22	4.65
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Calvin Schiraldi ('84-'91, 2 WAR*)	2.8	92	25.3%*	11.1%*	1.35*	4.71*
Bobby Castillo ('77-'85, 5 WAR*)	3.4	86	22.3%*	11.3%*	1.23*	4.27*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Jay Witasick ('07)	3.7	73	19.6%	11.0%	1.19	4.64
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11