Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 11 | 8 | 41 | 175 | 39 | 19 | 1 | 73% | 3.8 | 15.2% | 13.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.96 | 3.95 | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 11 | 8 | 41 | 175 | 39 | 19 | 1 | 73% | 3.8 | 22.3% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 0.6% | 1.96 | 2.91 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 9 | 9 | 30 | 128 | 34 | 11 | 2 | 100% | 3.3 | 18.1% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 4.50 | 4.33 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 9 | 9 | 30 | 128 | 34 | 11 | 2 | 100% | 3.3 | 26.6% | 8.6% | 18.0% | 1.6% | 4.50 | 2.80 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 11 | 65 | 280 | 74 | 24 | 3 | 52% | 3.1 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 1.5% | 3.17 | 3.71 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 11 | 65 | 280 | 74 | 24 | 3 | 52% | 3.1 | 26.4% | 8.6% | 17.9% | 1.1% | 3.17 | 2.53 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 24 | 13 | 90 | 409 | 83 | 44 | 8 | 54% | 3.8 | 15.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.60 | 4.91 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 24 | 13 | 90 | 409 | 83 | 44 | 8 | 54% | 3.8 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 2.0% | 4.60 | 3.88 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 23 | 1 | 47 | 197 | 43 | 17 | 8 | 4% | 2.0 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.02 | 5.74 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | STL | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 38 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.3% | 13.9% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 5.61 | 5.61 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.3% | 13.9% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 5.61 | 5.61 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | STL | — | — | 110 | 463 | 81 | 54 | 16 | — | — | 17.5% | 11.7% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 5.67 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | STL | 63 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 47 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.6% | 12.6% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.33 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | STL | 65 | 0 | 69 | 290 | 52 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 11.7% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 5.09 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | STL | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 23 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.6% | 12.6% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.33 | 5.22 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | STL | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 38 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 11.7% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 5.09 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 79 | 0 | 83 | 349 | 61 | 42 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 12.0% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 5.18 | 4.70 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 148 | 102 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.5% | 12.0% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 5.18 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 88 | 42 | 274 | 1189 | 194 | 138 | 30 | 48% | 3.1 | 16.4% | 11.6% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 3.75 | 4.56 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 31 | 200 | 869 | 142 | 101 | 22 | 48% | 3.1 | 16.4% | 11.6% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 3.75 | 4.56 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nelfy Ynfante (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.61 | 14.3% | 13.9% | 2.9% | — | 5.10 | 17.3% | 5.2% | 135 | -0.51 | — | — | — |
| Juan Perez R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.28 | 15.4% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .321 | 4.63 | 10.8% | 0.0% | 56 | -0.65 | 4.63 | 113 | 95 |
| Garrett Nuss R 2027 · 5.91 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.91 | 14.1% | 14.9% | 3.8% | .352 | 4.67 | 15.0% | 5.3% | 92 | -1.24 | 4.56 | 174 | 86 |
| Griffin Kilander R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.83 | 15.5% | 16.2% | 1.8% | .264 | 4.24 | 23.3% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.59 | 4.24 | 115 | 86 |
| Torey Deshazier R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.30 | 12.7% | 12.8% | 3.0% | .319 | 5.28 | 14.8% | -10.6% | 41 | -0.02 | 5.28 | 127 | 85 |
| Axel Rios R 2028 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.57 | 13.1% | 13.5% | 1.6% | .333 | 4.01 | 15.2% | 3.2% | 97 | -0.56 | 3.45 | 153 | 85 |
| Luis Rujano R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.69 | 17.0% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .361 | 5.05 | 17.0% | -2.8% | 72 | +0.36 | 4.67 | 178 | 84 |
| Yunior Montero R 2027 · 4.82 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.82 | 16.9% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .276 | 4.59 | 21.5% | 6.2% | 91 | -0.23 | 3.60 | 127 | 84 |
| Ben Ethridge R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.48 | 14.4% | 13.2% | 1.7% | .250 | 6.15 | 13.0% | 2.0% | 66 | +1.67 | 4.48 | 144 | 84 |
| Zach Mort R 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.14 | 10.7% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .240 | 5.35 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 176 | +0.21 | 5.14 | 237 | 84 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2028 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.85 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 2.69 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 68 | -2.16 | 2.69 | 145 | 83 |
| Jheyson Caraballo R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.25 | 11.9% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 101 | 83 |
| Angel Peralta R 2024 · 4.90 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.90 | 15.7% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 105 | 82 |
| Blake Quinn R 2028 · 5.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.32 | 16.9% | 15.3% | 3.1% | .328 | 4.28 | 17.1% | 3.3% | 48 | -1.04 | 4.28 | 122 | 82 |
| Chance Huff R 2028 · 5.78 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.78 | 11.8% | 11.4% | 4.1% | .312 | 5.14 | 15.7% | -0.0% | 151 | -0.64 | 4.35 | 235 | 82 |
| Trent Fennell R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.48 | 14.5% | 12.5% | 1.9% | .317 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 7.5% | 89 | -0.24 | 3.88 | 163 | 82 |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2029 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 82 |
| Hunter Hayes R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.52 | 13.3% | 9.7% | 2.4% | .307 | 4.64 | 16.7% | 4.2% | 149 | +0.12 | 3.33 | 210 | 82 |
| Reid Anderson R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.68 | 12.2% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .306 | 3.68 | 15.5% | 5.0% | 244 | -1.00 | 2.92 | 332 | 81 |
| Tanner Cooper R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.75 | 17.1% | 14.1% | 2.4% | .338 | 5.44 | 14.4% | 6.7% | 121 | +0.69 | 4.49 | 148 | 81 |
| Engel Daniel Peralta R 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.11 | 17.7% | 15.0% | 2.9% | .300 | 5.76 | 15.2% | 2.1% | 15 | +0.65 | 3.34 | 111 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 66 | 16.4% | 12.7% | 1.10 | 5.34 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |