Nelfy Ynfante — OGILVIE

Nelfy Ynfante P Springfield Cardinals

+0.1 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 168 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.5 · 2031

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.2%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%9.7%

IP90

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.5peak

2031

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals	11	8	41	175	39	19	1	15.2%	13.6%	0.8%	1.96	3.95	+0.5
2023	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals	9	9	30	128	34	11	2	18.1%	10.7%	2.5%	4.50	4.30	+0.2
2024	19	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	21	11	65	280	74	24	3	18.2%	10.5%	1.5%	3.17	3.71	+1.0
2025	20	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	13	90	409	83	44	8	15.0%	12.7%	2.6%	4.60	4.87	+0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	AA	Springfield Cardinals	3	0	7	24	5	2	1	—	—	—	1.35	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	STL	16	16	90	380	77	40	11	20.2%	10.5%	2.9%	4.68	4.68	+0.5
2026 Total	21	MLB	STL	—	—	97	404	82	42	12	20.3%	10.4%	2.9%	4.45	4.36	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	STL	21	21	116	492	105	47	14	21.4%	9.5%	2.8%	4.51	4.43	+1.1
2028	23	MLB	STL	26	26	141	595	132	53	17	22.2%	8.9%	2.8%	4.36	4.27	+1.6
2029	24	MLB	STL	29	29	160	677	154	58	19	22.7%	8.6%	2.8%	4.24	4.17	+2.1
2030	25	MLB	STL	32	32	174	736	170	62	20	23.1%	8.4%	2.8%	4.16	4.11	+2.4
2031	26	MLB	STL	33	33	181	766	178	64	21	23.3%	8.4%	2.8%	4.12	4.09	+2.5
2032	27	MLB	STL	33	33	180	760	177	64	21	23.3%	8.4%	2.8%	4.11	4.10	+2.4
2033	28	MLB	STL	32	32	177	749	174	63	21	23.3%	8.4%	2.8%	4.12	4.13	+2.4
2034	29	MLB	STL	32	32	173	732	169	62	21	23.1%	8.5%	2.9%	4.15	4.17	+2.2
2035	30	MLB	STL	31	31	168	710	163	61	21	22.9%	8.6%	2.9%	4.20	4.23	+2.0
2036	31	MLB	STL	29	29	162	685	155	60	20	22.7%	8.7%	3.0%	4.26	4.31	+1.8
2037	32	MLB	STL	28	28	156	657	147	58	20	22.4%	8.9%	3.1%	4.34	4.39	+1.6
2038	33	MLB	STL	27	27	149	628	139	57	20	22.1%	9.1%	3.2%	4.43	4.49	+1.4
2039	34	MLB	STL	26	26	141	597	130	55	19	21.8%	9.3%	3.3%	4.53	4.60	+1.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			68	41	233	1016	167	121	20	16.4%	11.9%	2.0%	3.63	4.31	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—			58	35	200	871	143	104	17	16.4%	11.9%	2.0%	3.63	4.31	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nelfy Ynfante (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	20.2%	10.5%	2.9%	—	4.28	22.2%	13.2%	418	-0.40	—	—	—
Micah Ottenbreit R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	21	SP-	4.31	17.9%	11.8%	2.2%	.305	3.04	14.7%	10.3%	24	-1.27	3.04	118	95
Braden Webb R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.79	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.34	4.45	308	94
Will Sanders R 2027 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP-	4.90	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.297	4.22	20.2%	11.5%	139	-0.68	4.01	231	92
Aaron Davenport R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP-	4.86	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	5.01	16.9%	5.2%	391	+0.15	4.06	498	91
Chris McElvain R 2027 · 4.78 FIP	22	SP-	4.78	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	4.29	16.7%	6.6%	122	-0.49	4.06	218	91
Johnathan Harmon R 2027 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.8%	10.2%	2.5%	.293	3.81	16.1%	8.1%	69	-0.48	3.51	157	90
Josh Bostick R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP-	4.71	19.3%	11.2%	3.3%	.304	5.41	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.70	4.71	226	90
Sam Carlson R 2027 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	17.9%	11.2%	2.3%	.334	3.73	19.9%	9.1%	153	-0.56	3.20	313	90
Devereaux Harrison R 2027 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP-	4.96	17.6%	11.3%	3.5%	.252	4.82	17.2%	4.7%	230	-0.14	4.73	324	90
Brett Wichrowski R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	21	SP-	4.09	17.0%	11.2%	1.8%	.267	4.54	14.5%	3.5%	113	+0.45	4.06	202	90
Kyle Bradish R 2027 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.87	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.68	2.16	615	90
Jake Peppers R 2027 · 5.10 FIP	22	SP-	5.10	15.3%	12.2%	3.2%	.293	4.80	15.7%	0.5%	63	-0.30	4.80	160	90
Josh Grosz R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP-	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	4.75	19.4%	7.6%	125	-0.08	4.75	243	89
Shelby Lackey R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	89
Bryce Conley R 2028 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	20.2%	12.2%	3.3%	.269	4.89	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.28	448	88
Nolan DeVos R 2027 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.82	12.3%	-1.5%	12	+1.65	4.17	110	88
Nick Sinacola R 2027 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.06	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.37	3.55	357	88
CJ Van Eyk R 2027 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	88
Matt Ruppenthal R 2028 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.25	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.26	3.75	283	88
Bryce Osmond R 2027 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP-	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.47	12.2%	-2.9%	16	+1.91	5.56	113	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+2.1	$18M	+$18M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.3	$21M	+$20M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.5	$23M	+$22M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+2.5	$24M	+$20M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+2.4	$24M	+$18M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+2.2	$22M	+$15M
Totals		$19M		$132M	+$113M