Hunter Hayes — OGILVIE

Hunter Hayes P Springfield Cardinals

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%17.2%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%4.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	2	1	2	9	2	1	0	50%	1.0	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	9.00	2.63	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	2	1	2	9	2	1	0	50%	1.0	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	9.00	2.60	—
2023	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	20	5	61	267	48	22	5	25%	3.0	13.3%	9.7%	3.6%	2.4%	3.69	4.53	—
2023	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	20	5	61	267	48	22	5	25%	3.0	13.3%	9.7%	3.6%	2.4%	3.69	4.53	—
2023	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	20	5	61	267	48	22	5	25%	3.0	18.0%	8.2%	9.7%	1.9%	3.69	3.67	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	0	58	243	58	18	2	0%	2.0	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	1.2%	2.93	3.34	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	0	58	243	58	18	2	0%	2.0	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	1.2%	2.93	3.34	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	0	58	243	58	18	2	0%	2.0	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	0.8%	2.93	2.48	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	64	290	67	31	5	0%	1.8	18.0%	12.2%	5.8%	2.5%	4.78	4.50	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	64	290	67	31	5	0%	1.8	18.0%	12.2%	5.8%	2.5%	4.78	4.50	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	64	290	67	31	5	0%	1.8	23.1%	10.7%	12.4%	1.7%	4.78	3.48	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	28	0	39	197	30	32	5	0%	1.4	12.3%	17.9%	-5.5%	3.0%	6.64	5.99	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	28	0	39	197	30	32	5	0%	1.4	12.3%	17.9%	-5.5%	3.0%	6.64	5.99	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	STL	28	0	39	197	30	32	5	0%	1.4	15.2%	16.2%	-1.0%	2.5%	6.64	5.26	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	STL	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	17.2%	12.3%	4.9%	2.7%	5.10	5.10	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	45	222	34	35	6	—	—	15.4%	15.8%	-0.4%	2.6%	6.44	5.88	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	STL	67	0	70	296	53	35	8	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.9%	6.1%	2.8%	5.00	4.99	-0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	STL	66	0	69	291	54	34	8	0%	1.0	18.4%	11.8%	6.6%	2.8%	4.97	4.98	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	STL	64	0	67	282	52	33	8	0%	1.0	18.5%	11.8%	6.7%	2.9%	4.99	5.03	-0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	STL	61	0	64	270	50	32	8	0%	1.0	18.4%	12.0%	6.4%	3.1%	5.08	5.14	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	STL	30	0	31	131	24	16	4	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.9%	6.1%	2.8%	5.00	4.99	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	STL	42	0	44	186	34	22	5	0%	1.0	18.4%	11.8%	6.6%	2.8%	4.97	4.98	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	STL	49	0	51	215	40	25	6	0%	1.0	18.5%	11.8%	6.7%	2.9%	4.99	5.03	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	STL	50	0	52	220	40	26	7	0%	1.0	18.4%	12.0%	6.4%	3.1%	5.08	5.14	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	138	89	22	0%	1.0	18.4%	11.9%	6.5%	2.9%	5.01	4.67	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	100	25	0%	1.1	18.4%	11.9%	6.5%	2.9%	5.01	4.67	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		115	6	225	1006	157	119	23	5%	2.0	15.7%	11.8%	3.9%	2.2%	4.37	4.50	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	5	200	896	140	106	20	5%	2.0	15.7%	11.8%	3.9%	2.2%	4.37	4.50	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Hayes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	17.2%	12.3%	2.7%	—	5.00	18.3%	6.4%	206	-0.10	—	—	—
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	92
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	89
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	88
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	25	SU	4.59	15.1%	10.4%	2.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	218	87
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	87
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	87
Alex Palsha R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	25	SU	3.95	16.0%	10.9%	1.5%	.293	3.40	12.8%	1.8%	17	-0.55	3.40	134	87
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	87
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	86
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	86
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	86
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	85
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	85
Raul Fernandez R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	14.2%	9.4%	1.7%	.285	4.79	16.1%	5.0%	103	+0.76	4.03	165	85
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	85
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	84
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	84
Brad Goldberg R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SU	4.07	18.2%	11.7%	1.9%	.333	3.86	21.4%	7.2%	139	-0.21	3.14	197	84
Ryan Moseley R 2019 · 4.07 FIP	24	SU	4.07	16.9%	11.9%	1.6%	.282	5.26	14.1%	1.1%	48	+1.19	4.07	264	84
Matthew Gorst R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	24	SU	4.66	16.2%	11.3%	2.7%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	199	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	18.1%	12.0%	1.11	5.03
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04