Hunter Hayes
P
Springfield Cardinals
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 116
ERA5.14
FIP5.14
K%17.2%
BB%12.3%
K-BB%4.9%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 50% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 2.63 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 50% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 2.60 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 20 | 5 | 61 | 267 | 48 | 22 | 5 | 25% | 3.0 | 13.3% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 3.69 | 4.52 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 20 | 5 | 61 | 267 | 48 | 22 | 5 | 25% | 3.0 | 18.0% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 1.9% | 3.69 | 3.67 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 0 | 58 | 243 | 58 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 2.0 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 1.2% | 2.93 | 3.33 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 0 | 58 | 243 | 58 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 2.0 | 23.9% | 7.4% | 16.5% | 0.8% | 2.93 | 2.48 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 64 | 290 | 67 | 31 | 5 | 0% | 1.8 | 18.0% | 12.2% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 4.78 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 64 | 290 | 67 | 31 | 5 | 0% | 1.8 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 1.7% | 4.78 | 3.48 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 24 | 0 | 33 | 167 | 26 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 12.6% | 19.1% | -6.5% | 3.6% | 6.82 | 6.43 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | STL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 51 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 5.14 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 5.14 | 5.14 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | STL | — | — | 103 | 463 | 77 | 65 | 13 | — | — | 16.6% | 14.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 5.68 | 5.55 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | STL | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 17.2% | 12.3% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 5.14 | 4.76 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | STL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 53 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | STL | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 54 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 11.8% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 5.00 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | STL | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 24 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | STL | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 34 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 11.8% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 5.00 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 0 | 76 | 320 | 58 | 38 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 11.8% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 5.02 | 4.64 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 153 | 100 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 11.8% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 5.02 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 111 | 6 | 218 | 976 | 154 | 115 | 24 | 5% | 2.0 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 4.33 | 4.61 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 102 | 5 | 200 | 894 | 141 | 106 | 22 | 5% | 2.0 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 4.33 | 4.61 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hunter Hayes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.14 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 2.8% | — | 5.03 | 18.2% | 6.4% | 139 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 92 |
| Chase Plymell R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.21 | 19.2% | 13.0% | 2.0% | .330 | 4.58 | 14.2% | 5.4% | 162 | +0.37 | 3.79 | 291 | 88 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.04 | 16.0% | 10.9% | 1.7% | .293 | 3.40 | 12.8% | 1.8% | 17 | -0.64 | 3.40 | 134 | 87 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 87 |
| Confesor Lara R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 16.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 111 | 87 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.49 | 15.1% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 218 | 87 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 87 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 87 |
| Ryan Ledbetter R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.63 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 124 | 86 |
| David Goforth R 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.47 | 3.92 | 256 | 85 |
| Conor Steinbaugh R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.77 | 16.0% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 6.87 | 14.3% | 0.8% | 39 | +2.10 | 4.77 | 107 | 85 |
| Tyler Burch R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.70 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 119 | 85 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 85 |
| Reece Karalus R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.74 | 149 | 85 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.65 | 19.5% | 11.5% | 99 | +0.39 | 3.81 | 233 | 84 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2028 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 3.74 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.37 | 3.74 | 146 | 84 |
| Ryan Moseley R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 16.9% | 11.9% | 1.8% | .282 | 5.24 | 14.1% | 1.1% | 48 | +1.08 | 4.09 | 264 | 84 |
| Raul Fernandez R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.95 | 14.2% | 9.4% | 1.6% | .285 | 4.86 | 16.1% | 5.0% | 103 | +0.91 | 3.95 | 165 | 84 |
| Matthew Gorst R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.72 | 16.2% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 199 | 84 |
| Merrick Baldo R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.55 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.57 | 14.7% | 8.1% | 38 | -0.98 | 2.69 | 154 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 17.9% | 12.0% | 1.11 | 5.06 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |