Shawndrick Oduber

P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	18	ROKDSL Royals Bl…	11	11	32	3.06	2.26	32.4%	5.8%	—	K 22.0% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.99
2024	19	ROKKC	14	0	24	5.18	3.80	18.8%	9.8%	—	K 12.8% · BB 12.3% · FIP 5.02
2025	20	MIX2 levels	30	0	50	5.98	4.51	21.6%	9.5%	—	K 16.5% · BB 11.6% · FIP 5.59
2026	21	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	22	MLBLAA	—	—	0	5.40	5.40	16.2%	12.6%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBLAA	21	0	22	5.18	5.10	17.8%	11.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBLAA	30	0	31	5.00	4.92	18.8%	10.9%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command40

CompsJunior Rincon (age 23) · Jack Carey (age 22) · Jhonny Polanco (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 119

ERA5.40

FIP5.40

K%16.2%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%3.6%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	11	11	32	139	45	8	3	100%	2.9	22.0%	7.2%	14.8%	3.3%	3.06	3.99	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	11	11	32	139	45	8	3	100%	2.9	32.4%	5.8%	26.6%	2.2%	3.06	2.26	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	14	0	24	112	21	11	2	0%	1.7	12.8%	12.3%	0.5%	2.6%	5.18	5.02	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	14	0	24	112	21	11	2	0%	1.7	12.8%	12.3%	0.5%	2.6%	5.18	5.02	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	14	0	24	112	21	11	2	0%	1.7	18.8%	9.8%	8.9%	1.8%	5.18	3.80	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	50	231	50	22	8	0%	1.7	16.5%	11.6%	4.9%	4.4%	5.98	5.59	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	50	231	50	22	8	0%	1.7	16.5%	11.6%	4.9%	4.4%	5.98	5.59	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	50	231	50	22	8	0%	1.7	21.6%	9.5%	12.1%	3.5%	5.98	4.51	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.2%	12.6%	3.6%	3.1%	5.40	5.40	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAA	42	0	45	188	34	22	6	0%	1.1	17.8%	11.5%	6.3%	3.0%	5.18	5.10	-0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAA	42	0	45	188	35	21	6	0%	1.1	18.8%	10.9%	7.9%	3.0%	5.00	4.92	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAA	21	0	22	93	17	11	3	0%	1.0	17.8%	11.5%	6.3%	3.0%	5.18	5.10	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAA	30	0	31	131	25	14	4	0%	1.0	18.8%	10.9%	7.9%	3.0%	5.00	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	0	53	224	41	25	7	0%	1.0	18.4%	11.2%	7.2%	3.0%	5.07	4.61	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	155	94	26	0%	1.1	18.4%	11.2%	7.2%	3.0%	5.07	4.61	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		55	11	106	482	83	51	18	20%	1.9	17.2%	10.5%	6.7%	3.7%	4.91	5.00	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	21	200	907	156	95	33	20%	1.9	17.2%	10.5%	6.7%	3.7%	4.91	5.00	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 48 IPFIP 4.42 → 5.59 (+1.17)K% 22.3% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.32%	—	×0.740	16.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.82%	—	×1.180	11.59%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.055	×1.300	4.40%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 4.42 → 5.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Royals · 24 IPFIP 3.74 → 5.02 (+1.28)K% 18.8% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.75%	—	×0.680	12.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.82%	—	×1.250	12.28%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷0.949	×1.400	2.64%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.74 → 5.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Royals Blue · 32 IPFIP 2.28 → 3.99 (+1.71)K% 32.4% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.37%	—	×0.680	22.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.76%	—	×1.250	7.19%
HR / BF /BF	2.16%	÷0.903	×1.400	3.35%

Result: FIP 2.28 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shawndrick Oduber (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.40	16.2%	12.6%	3.1%	—	5.01	18.3%	7.1%	89	-0.39	—	—	—
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	89
Jack Carey R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	16.8%	10.9%	3.1%	.333	4.31	19.5%	8.2%	156	-0.46	3.79	250	89
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	87
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.15	27.7%	17.2%	182	-1.97	1.84	247	87
Nick Lockhart R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	22	SW	4.63	16.1%	10.6%	2.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	140	86
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	86
Tayler Scott R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	23	SU	4.48	16.7%	12.7%	2.1%	.309	4.09	17.9%	6.2%	162	-0.39	3.17	528	85
Justin Kelly R 2021 · 5.93 FIP	22	SU	5.93	15.5%	14.3%	4.2%	.259	4.93	15.4%	6.8%	149	-1.00	3.17	196	84
Fabian Anguamea R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	.295	4.53	15.8%	1.8%	96	-0.58	3.99	164	84
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	84
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	84
Ian Villers R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.311	4.23	15.6%	5.2%	59	-0.32	4.23	107	84
Kelvin Vasquez R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	14.8%	13.8%	2.6%	.248	5.38	15.0%	-3.0%	103	+0.35	5.01	180	84
Miguel Guerrero R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	22	SU	5.35	17.0%	13.9%	3.5%	.324	4.56	18.1%	7.8%	57	-0.79	4.56	171	84
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	83
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	83
Everhett Hazelwood R 2022 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	13.8%	12.2%	3.2%	.306	6.51	18.7%	2.9%	63	+1.28	5.23	117	83
Luis F. Castillo R 2016 · 4.51 FIP	21	SU	4.51	16.7%	10.5%	2.7%	.337	3.50	19.7%	12.3%	96	-1.01	2.95	254	83
Joel Cesar R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	22	SU	4.30	16.3%	12.0%	1.9%	.267	5.21	18.0%	9.9%	38	+0.91	4.30	127	83
Jacinto Arredondo R 2021 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	14.4%	12.7%	2.6%	.310	4.89	15.7%	5.0%	50	-0.04	4.89	101	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	17.6%	11.7%	1.17	5.19
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*