Miguel Guerrero
P
Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
Age 26
RHP
6'5" / 216 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 40 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
K%23.0%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 31 | 4 | 56 | 266 | 59 | 29 | 6 | 13% | 1.8 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.75 | 5.04 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 31 | 4 | 56 | 266 | 59 | 29 | 6 | 13% | 1.8 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 2.3% | 5.75 | 3.93 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 58 | 275 | 62 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.7 | 17.0% | 13.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.84 | 5.58 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 58 | 275 | 62 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.7 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 4.84 | 4.24 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 57 | 237 | 57 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.8 | 18.1% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.49 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 57 | 237 | 57 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.8 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 2.5% | 4.40 | 3.57 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | -40.0% | 0.0% | 13.50 | 8.17 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | -40.0% | 0.0% | 13.50 | 9.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 39 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 167 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 36 | 0 | 38 | 162 | 37 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 35 | 0 | 37 | 155 | 35 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 25 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 0 | 63 | 265 | 61 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.12 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 80 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 98 | 4 | 173 | 788 | 133 | 101 | 26 | 4% | 1.8 | 16.9% | 12.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.09 | 5.10 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 113 | 5 | 200 | 909 | 154 | 117 | 30 | 4% | 1.8 | 16.9% | 12.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.09 | 5.10 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Miguel Guerrero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.48 | 22.9% | 13.4% | 114 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 88 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 88 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 87 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 87 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 86 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 85 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.81 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .316 | 6.96 | 13.7% | 6.1% | 26 | +3.15 | 3.81 | 233 | 85 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 85 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.15 | 3.43 | 187 | 85 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 85 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 85 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | .282 | 3.23 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -0.88 | 1.79 | 647 | 85 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | +0.04 | 3.42 | 161 | 84 |
| Joe Broussard R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.84 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .316 | 3.66 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 95 | -0.18 | 2.61 | 304 | 84 |
| Cale Coshow R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 3.61 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 63 | -0.90 | 3.16 | 377 | 84 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .318 | 3.31 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.47 | 2.46 | 362 | 84 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 83 |
| Madison Younginer IV R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.24 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .370 | 4.72 | 14.0% | -5.3% | 27 | +0.48 | 3.04 | 219 | 83 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.07 | 2.96 | 114 | 83 |
| Carter Rustad R 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 101 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 39 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 1.21 | 4.42 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |