Joel Cesar — OGILVIE

Joel Cesar P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 30 RHP 5'11" / 210 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%15.6%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%7.1%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	20	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates	2	2	7	31	5	7	1	100%	3.3	16.1%	22.6%	-6.5%	3.2%	2.70	6.37	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates	2	2	7	31	5	7	1	100%	3.3	16.1%	22.6%	-6.5%	3.2%	2.70	6.70	—
2018	22	A MLE	West Virginia Power	29	0	54	227	50	23	4	0%	1.9	16.3%	12.0%	4.3%	1.9%	3.15	4.30	—
2018	22	A RAW	West Virginia Power	29	0	54	227	50	23	4	0%	1.9	22.0%	10.1%	11.9%	1.8%	3.15	3.49	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	51	207	52	17	6	3%	1.4	18.0%	8.1%	9.9%	4.7%	3.02	5.21	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	1	51	207	52	17	6	3%	1.4	25.1%	8.2%	16.9%	2.9%	3.02	3.59	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	6	0	7	36	7	8	2	0%	1.2	19.4%	22.2%	-2.8%	5.6%	10.29	7.32	—
2021	25	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	6	0	7	36	7	8	2	0%	1.2	19.4%	22.2%	-2.8%	5.6%	10.29	8.24	—
2022	26	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	3	0	3	16	3	6	0	0%	0.9	18.8%	37.5%	-18.8%	0.0%	13.50	6.27	—
2022	26	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	3	0	3	16	3	6	0	0%	0.9	18.8%	37.5%	-18.8%	0.0%	13.50	7.60	—
2025	29	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	26	0	34	157	25	12	4	0%	1.3	12.9%	8.4%	4.5%	3.1%	7.15	4.78	—
2025	29	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	26	0	34	157	25	12	4	0%	1.3	12.9%	8.4%	4.5%	3.1%	7.15	4.78	—
2025	29	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	26	0	34	157	25	12	4	0%	1.3	15.9%	7.6%	8.3%	2.5%	7.15	4.22	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	MIN	2	0	2	8	1	1	0	0%	1.0	15.6%	8.6%	7.1%	3.0%	4.90	4.90	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	MIN	19	0	20	84	14	8	3	0%	1.1	16.0%	9.0%	7.0%	3.2%	4.97	5.05	-0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	MIN	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	16.0%	9.0%	7.0%	3.2%	4.97	5.05	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	4	2	1	0%	1.0	16.0%	9.0%	7.0%	3.2%	4.97	4.67	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	128	64	32	0%	1.1	16.0%	9.0%	7.0%	3.2%	4.97	4.67	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		103	3	155	674	110	78	22	3%	1.5	16.2%	11.6%	4.6%	3.3%	4.46	4.99	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	4	200	868	141	101	28	3%	1.5	16.2%	11.6%	4.6%	3.3%	4.46	4.99	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joel Cesar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	15.6%	8.6%	3.0%	—	5.05	16.0%	7.0%	20	+0.15	—	—	—
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	86
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	85
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	85
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	84
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	84
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	82
Francisco Rodriguez R 2015 · 4.79 FIP	32	SU	4.79	11.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.281	4.04	12.1%	4.4%	139	-0.75	3.16	273	82
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	82
Ryan Doolittle R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	28	SU	4.38	13.9%	7.1%	2.8%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	101	81
Ronald Belisario R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	32	SU	3.71	11.8%	6.3%	1.5%	.254	2.10	18.4%	14.0%	48	-1.61	2.10	126	80
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	80
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	80
Luis Angel Daniel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	30	SU	4.47	9.9%	6.9%	2.4%	.292	4.36	11.6%	2.4%	107	-0.11	4.16	156	79
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	78
Pedro Beato R 2017 · 3.86 FIP	30	SU	3.86	16.2%	8.7%	1.8%	.227	3.64	19.8%	13.1%	97	-0.22	3.47	295	78
Collin Balester R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	14.2%	9.3%	2.1%	.240	3.20	21.2%	15.4%	43	-1.02	3.20	116	78
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	77
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	77
Drew Hayes R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	28	SU	3.99	13.8%	10.1%	1.4%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	117	77
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	76