Joel Cesar
P
Wichita Wind Surge
+0.1
WAR
Age 30
RHP
5'11" / 210 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.58
FIP4.58
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.0%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%11.1%
IP28
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | DSL Pirates | 2 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | West Virginia Power | 29 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 50 | 23 | 4 | 16.3% | 12.0% | 1.9% | 3.15 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 37 | 1 | 51 | 207 | 52 | 17 | 6 | 18.0% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 3.02 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 6 | 0 | 7 | 36 | 7 | 8 | 2 | — | — | — | 10.29 | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 13.50 | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 26 | 0 | 34 | 157 | 25 | 12 | 4 | 12.9% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 7.15 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 28 | — | 28 | 118 | 24 | 11 | 4 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 27 | — | 27 | 114 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 20.1% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 103 | 3 | 155 | 674 | 110 | 78 | 22 | 16.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 5.02 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 133 | 4 | 200 | 868 | 142 | 100 | 28 | 16.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 5.02 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joel Cesar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.62 | 20.1% | 11.1% | 27 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 91 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 86 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 86 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 84 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 84 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 83 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 81 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 101 | 81 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 80 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 80 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 80 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 80 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 80 |
| Adrian Garza R 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 16.0% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .351 | 5.10 | 9.7% | 4.1% | 113 | +0.66 | 3.95 | 229 | 79 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 79 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2024 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 79 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 79 |
| Bryan Morris R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.68 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 102 | 79 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 78 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.