Joel Cesar

P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 31 RHP 5'11" / 210 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	26	A+PHI	3	0	3	13.50	7.60	18.8%	37.5%	—	K 18.8% · BB 37.5% · FIP 6.27
2025	29	AAMIN	26	0	34	7.15	4.22	15.9%	7.6%	—	K 12.9% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.78
2027PROJ	31	MLBMIN	—	—	0	4.78	4.78	17.2%	8.7%	—
2028PROJ31% MLB	32	MLBMIN	5	0	5	4.87	4.96	17.4%	9.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsAngel Castro (age 32) · Mike Buddie (age 31) · Miguel Mejia (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%17.2%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP19

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	20	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates	2	2	7	31	5	7	1	100%	3.3	16.1%	22.6%	-6.5%	3.2%	2.70	6.37	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates	2	2	7	31	5	7	1	100%	3.3	16.1%	22.6%	-6.5%	3.2%	2.70	6.70	—
2018	22	A MLE	West Virginia Power	29	0	54	227	50	23	4	0%	1.9	16.3%	12.0%	4.3%	1.9%	3.15	4.30	—
2018	22	A RAW	West Virginia Power	29	0	54	227	50	23	4	0%	1.9	22.0%	10.1%	11.9%	1.8%	3.15	3.49	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	51	207	52	17	6	3%	1.4	18.0%	8.1%	9.9%	4.7%	3.02	5.21	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	1	51	207	52	17	6	3%	1.4	25.1%	8.2%	16.9%	2.9%	3.02	3.59	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	6	0	7	36	7	8	2	0%	1.2	19.4%	22.2%	-2.8%	5.6%	10.29	7.32	—
2021	25	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	6	0	7	36	7	8	2	0%	1.2	19.4%	22.2%	-2.8%	5.6%	10.29	8.24	—
2022	26	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	3	0	3	16	3	6	0	0%	0.9	18.8%	37.5%	-18.8%	0.0%	13.50	6.27	—
2022	26	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	3	0	3	16	3	6	0	0%	0.9	18.8%	37.5%	-18.8%	0.0%	13.50	7.60	—
2025	29	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	26	0	34	157	25	12	4	0%	1.3	12.9%	8.4%	4.5%	3.1%	7.15	4.78	—
2025	29	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	26	0	34	157	25	12	4	0%	1.3	12.9%	8.4%	4.5%	3.1%	7.15	4.78	—
2025	29	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	26	0	34	157	25	12	4	0%	1.3	15.9%	7.6%	8.3%	2.5%	7.15	4.22	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.2%	8.7%	8.5%	3.0%	4.78	4.78	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIN	16	0	16	69	12	6	2	0%	1.0	17.4%	9.2%	8.2%	3.3%	4.87	4.96	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIN	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	17.4%	9.2%	8.2%	3.3%	4.87	4.96	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		5	0	5	22	4	2	1	0%	1.0	17.4%	9.2%	8.2%	3.3%	4.87	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	78	39	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.2%	8.2%	3.3%	4.87	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		103	3	155	674	110	78	22	3%	1.5	16.2%	11.6%	4.6%	3.3%	4.46	4.99	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	4	200	868	141	101	28	3%	1.5	16.2%	11.6%	4.6%	3.3%	4.46	4.99	-1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 34 IPFIP 4.12 → 4.78 (+0.66)K% 15.9% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.92%	—	×0.810	12.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.64%	—	×1.100	8.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.55%	÷0.986	×1.200	3.10%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 4.12 → 4.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAReading Fightin Phils · 7 IPFIP 7.32 → 7.59 (+0.27)K% 19.4% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.44%	—	×0.810	15.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.22%	—	×1.100	24.44%
HR / BF /BF	5.56%	÷1.344	×1.200	4.96%

Result: FIP 7.32 → 7.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAltoona Curve · 38 IPFIP 3.86 → 5.21 (+1.35)K% 22.2% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.810	18.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×1.100	8.15%
HR / BF /BF	3.09%	÷0.783	×1.200	4.73%

Result: FIP 3.86 → 5.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Bradenton Marauders · 12 IPFIP 2.72 → 3.83 (+1.11)K% 35.6% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.56%	—	×0.770	27.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.150	12.78%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷1.069	×1.250	2.60%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 2.72 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AWest Virginia Power · 54 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.30 (+0.81)K% 22.0% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.03%	—	×0.740	16.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.13%	—	×1.180	11.96%
HR / BF /BF	1.76%	÷1.181	×1.300	1.94%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 136).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKDSL Pirates · 7 IPFIP 6.37 → 8.23 (+1.86)K% 16.1% → 11.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.13%	—	×0.680	10.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.58%	—	×1.250	28.23%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.52%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.37 → 8.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joel Cesar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	17.2%	8.7%	3.0%	—	4.96	17.4%	8.2%	16	+0.18	—	—	—
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	86
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	84
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	83
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	83
Luis Angel Daniel R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	31	SU	4.56	13.4%	8.9%	2.7%	.286	4.16	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.40	4.16	156	82
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	82
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	82
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	80
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	80
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	80
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	79
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	79
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	79
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	78
Esteban Haro R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	13.9%	5.1%	2.4%	.386	3.76	9.5%	3.9%	39	-0.15	3.76	164	76
Fernando Villalobos R 2016 · 4.00 FIP	31	SU	4.00	12.3%	8.6%	1.6%	.305	4.70	10.6%	2.6%	55	+0.70	4.00	152	76
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	76
Greg Burke R 2013 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	17.9%	8.3%	1.9%	.357	3.61	22.1%	14.8%	62	-0.09	3.61	139	76
Rodney Myers R 2001 · 4.70 FIP	32	SU	4.70	13.7%	9.5%	2.8%	.301	3.98	10.9%	1.0%	21	-0.72	3.98	218	76