Luis F. Castillo

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 212 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAASPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	26	MIX2 levels	29	0	34	4.72	4.15	21.2%	10.9%	—	K 17.8% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.54
2022	27	MIX3 levels	46	0	48	1.49	2.42	23.7%	5.7%	1.2	K 20.6% · BB 6.9% · FIP 2.95
2025	30	MIX3 levels	8	8	24	5.62	3.31	19.8%	10.8%	0.6	K 17.5% · BB 7.6% · FIP 3.44
2026	31	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	32	MLBSEA	1	0	1	4.42	4.42	20.7%	8.6%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBSEA	6	0	6	4.56	4.66	20.5%	9.1%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsArcenio Leon (age 32) · Joe Nelson (age 31) · Scott Atchison (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.42

FIP4.42

K%20.7%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%12.1%

Proj IP8

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	11	0	33	126	23	6	1	0%	3.0	12.4%	6.0%	6.5%	1.1%	1.91	3.42	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	11	0	33	126	23	6	1	0%	3.0	18.3%	4.8%	13.5%	0.8%	1.91	2.65	—
2016	21	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	19	3	36	155	38	13	3	16%	1.9	16.7%	10.5%	6.2%	2.7%	4.04	4.51	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Missoula Osprey	19	3	36	155	38	13	3	16%	1.9	24.5%	8.4%	16.1%	1.9%	4.04	3.16	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	20	74	19	6	1	0%	1.4	20.7%	10.4%	10.3%	2.0%	1.35	3.79	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	20	74	19	6	1	0%	1.4	25.7%	8.1%	17.6%	1.4%	1.35	2.75	—
2019	24	A+ MLE	Visalia Rawhide	43	0	78	328	83	19	6	0%	1.8	19.5%	6.7%	12.8%	2.1%	3.81	3.44	—
2019	24	A+ RAW	Visalia Rawhide	43	0	78	328	83	19	6	0%	1.8	25.3%	5.8%	19.5%	1.8%	3.81	2.70	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	34	165	35	18	4	0%	1.2	17.8%	11.7%	6.1%	2.7%	4.72	4.54	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	34	165	35	18	4	0%	1.2	21.2%	10.9%	10.3%	2.4%	4.72	4.15	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	48	194	46	11	2	0%	1.1	20.6%	6.9%	13.6%	1.3%	1.49	2.95	+0.9
2022	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	0	48	194	46	11	2	0%	1.1	23.7%	5.7%	18.0%	1.0%	1.49	2.42	+1.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	8	24	111	22	12	1	100%	3.0	17.5%	7.6%	9.9%	1.5%	5.62	3.44	+0.6
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	8	24	111	22	12	1	100%	3.0	17.5%	7.6%	9.9%	1.5%	5.62	3.44	+0.6
2025	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	8	24	111	22	12	1	100%	3.0	19.8%	10.8%	9.0%	0.9%	5.62	3.31	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	2	11	55	9	7	0	40%	2.1	16.4%	12.7%	3.6%	0.0%	5.06	3.38	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	SEA	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	2.9%	4.42	4.42	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	SEA	17	0	18	74	15	7	2	0%	1.0	20.5%	9.1%	11.4%	3.2%	4.56	4.66	-0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	SEA	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	9.1%	11.4%	3.2%	4.56	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	2	17	82	15	9	1	18%	1.6	17.7%	11.5%	6.2%	1.1%	4.87	3.64	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		130	23	200	961	175	105	12	18%	1.5	17.7%	11.5%	6.2%	1.1%	4.87	3.64	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		170	11	273	1153	209	94	23	6%	1.6	18.2%	8.2%	10.0%	2.0%	3.29	3.68	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	8	200	844	153	69	17	6%	1.6	18.2%	8.2%	10.0%	2.0%	3.29	3.68	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 14 IPFIP 3.39 → 3.44 (+0.05)K% 20.3% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.34%	—	×0.860	17.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.47%	—	×0.900	7.63%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷1.204	×1.100	1.55%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 141).

Result: FIP 3.39 → 3.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 41 IPFIP 2.62 → 2.95 (+0.33)K% 23.4% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.35%	—	×0.880	20.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.59%	—	×1.050	6.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷1.026	×1.100	1.28%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 2.62 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAReno Aces · 19 IPFIP 4.92 → 5.40 (+0.47)K% 14.7% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.74%	—	×0.880	12.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.050	11.05%
HR / BF /BF	3.16%	÷0.958	×1.100	3.63%

Result: FIP 4.92 → 5.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 15 IPFIP 2.80 → 3.38 (+0.58)K% 30.0% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.810	24.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.43%	—	×1.100	12.57%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷1.271	×1.200	1.35%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 154).

Result: FIP 2.80 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Visalia Rawhide · 78 IPFIP 2.70 → 3.44 (+0.74)K% 25.3% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.30%	—	×0.770	19.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.79%	—	×1.150	6.66%
HR / BF /BF	1.83%	÷1.095	×1.250	2.09%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 2.70 → 3.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AKane County Cougars · 18 IPFIP 2.67 → 3.79 (+1.13)K% 27.9% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.94%	—	×0.740	20.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×1.180	10.41%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷0.937	×1.300	2.04%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 2.67 → 3.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKMissoula Osprey · 36 IPFIP 3.15 → 4.51 (+1.35)K% 24.5% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.52%	—	×0.680	16.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.39%	—	×1.250	10.48%
HR / BF /BF	1.94%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.71%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.15 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKACL D-backs · 33 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.42 (+0.82)K% 18.3% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.25%	—	×0.680	12.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.250	5.95%
HR / BF /BF	0.79%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.11%

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis F. Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	20.7%	8.6%	2.9%	—	4.66	20.5%	11.4%	18	+0.24	—	—	—
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	83
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	80
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	78
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	78
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	77
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	77
James Hoyt R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.2%	9.9%	1.8%	.355	5.63	22.1%	10.4%	50	+2.18	1.61	312	76
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	76
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	75
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	74
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	74
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	74
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	74
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	74
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	73
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	73
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	73
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	73
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	72
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	72