Kash Mayfield

P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 22 LHP 6'4" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP45OGV rank#69ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ASD	19	19	61	2.97	2.01	34.1%	10.9%	—	K 25.2% · BB 12.8% · FIP 3.18
2026	21	A+SD	15	15	53	3.54	3.23	29.0%	10.3%	—	K 22.3% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.32
2027PROJ	22	MLBSD	1	1	4	4.45	4.45	24.1%	11.2%	0.0
2028PROJ51% MLB	23	MLBSD	10	10	55	4.34	4.26	24.6%	10.0%	0.8
2029PROJ71% MLB	24	MLBSD	15	15	86	4.21	4.12	25.0%	9.2%	1.3

Next 3 projected WAR 2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$5M2032Arb-2$7M2033Ext$9M

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -1.1 / P90 22, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 78%

CompsAnthony Veneziano (age 23) · T.J. Sikkema (age 24) · Jordan Wicks (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 118

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

K%24.1%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%12.9%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$48M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$11M	+$11M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+1.9	$11M	+$8M
2032	Arb-2	$7M	+1.9	$10M	+$6M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$14M		$45M	+$36M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	19	19	61	258	88	28	2	100%	3.2	25.2%	12.8%	12.4%	1.1%	2.97	3.18	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	19	19	61	258	88	28	2	100%	3.2	25.2%	12.8%	12.4%	1.1%	2.97	3.18	—
2025	20	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	19	19	61	258	88	28	2	100%	3.2	34.1%	10.9%	23.3%	0.8%	2.97	2.01	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	15	15	53	214	62	22	5	100%	3.6	22.3%	11.8%	10.5%	2.9%	3.54	4.32	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	15	15	53	214	62	22	5	100%	3.6	22.3%	11.8%	10.5%	2.9%	3.54	4.32	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	15	15	53	214	62	22	5	100%	3.6	29.0%	10.3%	18.7%	2.3%	3.54	3.23	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	SD	1	1	4	17	4	2	0	100%	4.0	24.1%	11.2%	12.9%	2.9%	4.45	4.45	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	108	455	112	45	13	100%	5.4	24.6%	10.0%	14.7%	2.8%	4.30	4.22	+1.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	SD	22	22	121	513	128	47	14	100%	5.5	25.0%	9.2%	15.8%	2.8%	4.17	4.08	+1.9
2030	25	MLB MLE	SD	22	22	130	548	138	48	15	100%	5.9	25.3%	8.7%	16.5%	2.8%	4.07	4.00	+2.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	SD	22	22	129	546	139	47	15	100%	5.9	25.4%	8.7%	16.7%	2.8%	4.02	3.98	+2.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	SD	21	21	126	534	136	47	15	100%	6.0	25.4%	8.7%	16.7%	2.9%	4.02	4.02	+2.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	121	511	129	45	15	100%	6.1	25.3%	8.9%	16.4%	3.0%	4.07	4.10	+1.9
2034	29	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	113	478	119	44	15	100%	6.0	25.0%	9.1%	15.9%	3.1%	4.17	4.24	+1.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	103	434	107	41	14	100%	6.1	24.7%	9.4%	15.3%	3.3%	4.32	4.41	+1.2
2036	31	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	92	388	94	38	14	100%	6.1	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.5%	4.50	4.61	+0.8
2037	32	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	81	342	82	35	13	100%	5.8	23.8%	10.2%	13.7%	3.8%	4.70	4.84	+0.5
2038	33	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	71	299	70	32	12	100%	5.9	23.3%	10.6%	12.7%	4.1%	4.93	5.09	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	55	232	57	23	7	100%	5.5	24.6%	10.0%	14.7%	2.9%	4.34	4.26	+0.8
2029	24	MLB CTX	SD	15	15	86	363	91	33	11	100%	5.7	25.0%	9.2%	15.8%	2.9%	4.21	4.12	+1.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	106	448	113	39	13	100%	5.9	25.3%	8.7%	16.5%	2.9%	4.11	4.04	+1.8
2031	26	MLB CTX	SD	19	19	114	481	122	42	14	100%	6.0	25.4%	8.7%	16.7%	2.9%	4.06	4.02	+1.9
2032	27	MLB CTX	SD	19	19	115	486	123	42	14	100%	6.1	25.4%	8.7%	16.7%	2.9%	4.06	4.06	+1.9
2033	28	MLB CTX	SD	19	19	112	473	119	42	14	100%	5.9	25.3%	8.9%	16.4%	3.0%	4.11	4.14	+1.7
2034	29	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	105	443	111	40	14	100%	5.8	25.0%	9.1%	15.9%	3.2%	4.21	4.28	+1.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	96	405	100	38	14	100%	6.0	24.7%	9.4%	15.3%	3.4%	4.37	4.46	+1.1
2036	31	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	87	367	89	36	13	100%	6.2	24.3%	9.8%	14.5%	3.6%	4.55	4.66	+0.8
2037	32	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	77	325	77	33	13	100%	5.9	23.8%	10.2%	13.7%	3.9%	4.75	4.89	+0.5
2038	33	MLB CTX	SD	11	11	67	283	66	30	12	100%	6.1	23.3%	10.6%	12.7%	4.2%	4.99	5.15	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		173	173	1021	4309	1070	399	139	100%	5.9	24.8%	9.3%	15.6%	3.2%	4.30	3.95	+17.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	210	78	27	100%	5.9	24.8%	9.3%	15.6%	3.2%	4.30	3.95	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		34	34	114	472	113	58	9	100%	3.4	23.9%	12.4%	11.6%	1.9%	3.24	3.70	+16.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	60	200	828	198	102	16	100%	3.4	23.9%	12.4%	11.6%	1.9%	3.24	3.70	+2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 53 IPFIP 3.24 → 4.32 (+1.08)K% 29.0% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.97%	—	×0.770	22.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.28%	—	×1.150	11.82%
HR / BF /BF	2.34%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.92%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.24 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALake Elsinore Storm · 61 IPFIP 2.02 → 3.18 (+1.16)K% 34.1% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.11%	—	×0.740	25.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.85%	—	×1.180	12.81%
HR / BF /BF	0.78%	÷0.936	×1.300	1.08%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 2.02 → 3.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kash Mayfield (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.09	25.0%	15.7%	359	-0.36	—	—	—
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	85
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	83
Jordan Wicks L 2022 · 3.83 FIP	22	SP	3.83	23.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.329	4.12	20.9%	13.1%	278	+0.29	2.92	472	83
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	82
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	82
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	80
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	79
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	79
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	79
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	79
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	78
Yereny Teus L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	20	SP	3.57	23.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.276	3.33	24.6%	10.0%	88	-0.24	2.63	185	77
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	77
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	77
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	77
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	77
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	77
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	77
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	77
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.79	281	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	107	24.8%	9.4%	1.20	4.26
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Tylor Megill ('25)	2.0	82	24.3%	9.1%	1.27	4.46
Jose DeLeon ('83-'95, 22 WAR*)	9.5	146	25.8%*	10.4%*	1.01*	4.17*
Nate Karns ('19)	1.6	105	24.0%	9.3%	1.34	4.30
Lynn McGlothen ('72-'82, 13 WAR*)	7.5	150	21.2%*	8.7%*	1.26*	4.50*
Fred Norman ('62-'80, 16 WAR*)	9.7	162	22.3%*	9.7%*	1.34*	4.33*