Kash Mayfield — OGILVIE

Kash Mayfield P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 21 LHP 6'4" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.2 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.30

FIP4.30

K%25.8%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%14.1%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$67M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL5055

CMD4055

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$10M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$13M	+$12M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.3	$14M	+$13M
2031	Arb-1	$8M	+2.4	$13M	+$9M
2032	Arb-2	$12M	+2.3	$12M	+$5M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$23M		$61M	+$49M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	19	19	61	258	88	28	2	100%	3.2	25.2%	12.8%	12.4%	1.1%	2.97	3.18	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	19	19	61	258	88	28	2	100%	3.2	25.2%	12.8%	12.4%	1.1%	2.97	3.18	—
2025	20	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	19	19	61	258	88	28	2	100%	3.2	34.1%	10.9%	23.3%	0.8%	2.97	2.01	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	15	15	53	214	62	22	5	100%	3.6	22.3%	11.8%	10.5%	2.9%	3.54	4.32	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	15	15	53	214	62	22	5	100%	3.6	22.3%	11.8%	10.5%	2.9%	3.54	4.32	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	SD	15	15	53	214	62	22	5	100%	3.6	29.0%	10.3%	18.7%	2.3%	3.54	3.24	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	SD	1	1	8	34	9	4	1	100%	8.2	25.8%	11.7%	14.1%	2.8%	4.30	4.30	+0.1
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	62	248	71	26	6	—	—	28.5%	10.5%	18.1%	2.4%	3.64	4.31	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SD	24	24	130	551	145	56	15	100%	5.4	26.4%	10.2%	16.1%	2.7%	4.14	4.04	+1.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	31	31	169	715	191	67	19	100%	5.5	26.8%	9.3%	17.5%	2.7%	3.99	3.88	+2.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	SD	31	31	175	739	200	64	20	100%	5.6	27.1%	8.7%	18.4%	2.7%	3.86	3.77	+2.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	SD	30	30	177	748	205	63	20	100%	5.9	27.4%	8.4%	19.0%	2.7%	3.77	3.70	+2.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	SD	30	30	177	748	206	62	20	100%	5.9	27.6%	8.3%	19.2%	2.7%	3.71	3.68	+2.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	SD	29	29	174	737	203	62	20	100%	6.0	27.6%	8.4%	19.1%	2.7%	3.71	3.71	+2.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	SD	28	28	169	715	196	61	20	100%	6.0	27.4%	8.6%	18.9%	2.8%	3.76	3.80	+2.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	SD	27	27	162	683	186	60	20	100%	6.0	27.2%	8.8%	18.4%	3.0%	3.86	3.93	+1.9
2035	30	MLB MLE	SD	25	25	152	642	172	58	20	100%	6.1	26.9%	9.1%	17.7%	3.2%	4.01	4.11	+1.4
2036	31	MLB MLE	SD	24	24	142	598	158	57	20	100%	5.9	26.5%	9.5%	17.0%	3.4%	4.19	4.31	+1.0
2037	32	MLB MLE	SD	22	22	131	554	144	55	20	100%	6.0	26.0%	9.9%	16.1%	3.6%	4.40	4.54	+0.6
2038	33	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	120	508	130	52	20	100%	6.0	25.5%	10.3%	15.2%	3.9%	4.63	4.79	+0.2
2039	34	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	110	462	115	50	20	100%	6.1	24.9%	10.8%	14.1%	4.2%	4.89	5.06	-0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	64	270	71	28	8	100%	5.3	26.4%	10.2%	16.1%	2.8%	4.18	4.08	+0.7
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	23	23	124	524	140	49	14	100%	5.4	26.8%	9.3%	17.5%	2.8%	4.03	3.92	+1.5
2029	24	MLB CTX	SD	26	26	145	612	166	53	17	100%	5.6	27.1%	8.7%	18.4%	2.7%	3.90	3.81	+2.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	SD	27	27	157	663	181	56	18	100%	5.8	27.4%	8.4%	19.0%	2.7%	3.81	3.74	+2.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	SD	27	27	162	684	189	57	19	100%	6.0	27.6%	8.3%	19.2%	2.7%	3.75	3.72	+2.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	SD	27	27	162	684	189	58	19	100%	6.0	27.6%	8.4%	19.1%	2.8%	3.75	3.75	+2.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	SD	26	26	158	667	183	57	19	100%	6.1	27.4%	8.6%	18.9%	2.9%	3.80	3.84	+2.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	SD	26	26	154	650	177	57	20	100%	5.9	27.2%	8.8%	18.4%	3.0%	3.90	3.97	+1.8
2035	30	MLB CTX	SD	24	24	144	608	163	55	20	100%	6.0	26.9%	9.1%	17.7%	3.3%	4.05	4.15	+1.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	SD	22	22	135	570	151	54	20	100%	6.1	26.5%	9.5%	17.0%	3.5%	4.24	4.36	+0.9
2037	32	MLB CTX	SD	21	21	125	528	137	52	20	100%	6.0	26.0%	9.9%	16.1%	3.7%	4.45	4.59	+0.5
2038	33	MLB CTX	SD	19	19	114	481	123	50	19	100%	6.0	25.5%	10.3%	15.2%	4.0%	4.68	4.84	+0.1
2039	34	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	99	418	104	45	18	100%	6.2	24.9%	10.8%	14.1%	4.3%	4.95	5.12	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		297	297	1743	7357	1973	671	231	100%	5.9	26.8%	9.1%	17.7%	3.1%	4.06	3.71	+25.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	226	77	27	100%	5.9	26.8%	9.1%	17.7%	3.1%	4.06	3.71	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		34	34	114	472	113	58	9	100%	3.4	23.9%	12.4%	11.6%	1.9%	3.24	3.70	+20.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	60	200	828	198	102	16	100%	3.4	23.9%	12.4%	11.6%	1.9%	3.24	3.70	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kash Mayfield (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	25.8%	11.7%	2.8%	—	3.88	26.8%	17.4%	475	-0.42	—	—	—
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	82
Jordan Wicks L 2022 · 3.83 FIP	22	SP	3.83	23.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.329	4.15	20.6%	12.8%	278	+0.32	2.97	469	81
Kyle Harrison L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	21	SP	4.69	27.6%	12.3%	4.3%	.280	3.91	24.1%	16.2%	347	-0.78	3.12	659	80
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	79
Steve Hajjar L 2022 · 3.67 FIP	21	SP	3.67	30.2%	14.9%	2.2%	.282	6.17	16.4%	-7.8%	97	+2.50	3.67	141	78
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	78
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	78
Nick Zwack L 2022 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	23.9%	9.3%	1.6%	.299	5.73	18.2%	8.6%	143	+2.57	3.16	289	77
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	77
Moises Brito L 2023 · 3.16 FIP	21	SP	3.16	22.9%	8.7%	1.6%	.250	7.76	18.0%	-2.5%	21	+4.60	2.53	106	77
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	77
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	77
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	76
Carson Whisenhunt L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	22	SP	3.11	27.4%	11.1%	1.7%	.270	4.28	19.7%	10.4%	353	+1.17	3.11	411	76
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	75
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	75
Mitchell Parker L 2021 · 4.08 FIP	21	SP	4.08	24.0%	9.8%	3.2%	.354	3.95	21.3%	9.9%	375	-0.13	3.73	694	75
Andrew Abbott L 2022 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	26.0%	10.9%	2.0%	.336	3.92	23.6%	15.7%	468	+0.56	3.36	740	74
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	74
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.4	149	26.8%	9.3%	1.17	4.03
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45