Kash Mayfield — OGILVIE

Kash Mayfield P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 21 LHP 6'4" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96105vR 114

ERA4.18

FIP4.18

K%25.8%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%15.0%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 113 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD4055

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	20	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	19	19	61	258	88	28	2	100%	3.2	25.2%	12.8%	12.4%	1.2%	2.97	3.23	—
2025	20	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	19	19	61	258	88	28	2	100%	3.2	34.1%	10.9%	23.3%	0.8%	2.97	2.01	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	13	13	49	192	58	19	5	100%	3.7	23.3%	11.4%	11.9%	3.3%	3.33	4.36	+0.1
ROS	21	MLB	SD	12	12	65	274	71	29	8	100%	5.4	25.8%	10.8%	15.0%	2.8%	4.18	4.18	+0.4
ROS	21	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.8%	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	4.13	4.13	—
2026 TOT	21	MLB	SD	—	—	113	466	129	48	13	—	—	27.6%	10.4%	17.2%	2.7%	3.81	4.26	+1.5
2026 FULL	21	MLB	SD	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	25.8%	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	4.13	3.75	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	SD	24	24	130	551	145	53	15	100%	5.4	26.3%	9.5%	16.8%	2.7%	4.05	3.96	+2.2
2028	23	MLB	SD	31	31	169	715	191	63	19	100%	5.5	26.8%	8.8%	18.0%	2.7%	3.92	3.82	+3.1
2029	24	MLB	SD	31	31	175	739	200	61	20	100%	5.6	27.1%	8.3%	18.8%	2.7%	3.81	3.72	+3.4
2030	25	MLB	SD	30	30	177	748	205	60	20	100%	5.9	27.3%	8.1%	19.3%	2.7%	3.73	3.66	+3.6
2031	26	MLB	SD	30	30	177	748	206	60	20	100%	5.9	27.6%	8.0%	19.5%	2.7%	3.68	3.64	+3.6
2032	27	MLB	SD	29	29	174	737	203	60	20	100%	6.0	27.5%	8.1%	19.4%	2.7%	3.68	3.68	+3.5
2033	28	MLB	SD	28	28	169	715	196	59	20	100%	6.0	27.4%	8.2%	19.2%	2.8%	3.73	3.76	+3.2
2034	29	MLB	SD	27	27	162	683	186	58	20	100%	6.0	27.2%	8.5%	18.7%	3.0%	3.83	3.89	+2.9
2035	30	MLB	SD	25	25	152	642	172	56	20	100%	6.1	26.8%	8.8%	18.1%	3.2%	3.97	4.07	+2.4
2036	31	MLB	SD	24	24	142	598	158	55	20	100%	5.9	26.4%	9.1%	17.3%	3.4%	4.15	4.27	+1.9
2037	32	MLB	SD	22	22	131	554	144	53	20	100%	6.0	26.0%	9.5%	16.5%	3.7%	4.36	4.50	+1.4
2038	33	MLB	SD	20	20	120	508	129	51	20	100%	6.0	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	3.9%	4.59	4.75	+0.9
2027	22	MLB	SD	12	12	64	270	71	26	7	100%	5.3	26.3%	9.5%	16.8%	2.6%	4.00	3.91	+0.5
2028	23	MLB	SD	23	23	124	524	140	46	14	100%	5.4	26.8%	8.8%	18.0%	2.6%	3.87	3.77	+2.4
2029	24	MLB	SD	26	26	145	612	166	51	16	100%	5.6	27.1%	8.3%	18.8%	2.6%	3.76	3.67	+2.9
2030	25	MLB	SD	27	27	157	663	181	53	17	100%	5.8	27.3%	8.1%	19.3%	2.6%	3.68	3.61	+3.3
2031	26	MLB	SD	27	27	162	684	188	55	18	100%	6.0	27.6%	8.0%	19.5%	2.6%	3.63	3.59	+3.4
2032	27	MLB	SD	27	27	162	684	188	55	18	100%	6.0	27.5%	8.1%	19.4%	2.6%	3.63	3.63	+3.4
2033	28	MLB	SD	26	26	158	667	183	55	18	100%	6.1	27.4%	8.2%	19.2%	2.7%	3.68	3.71	+3.1
2034	29	MLB	SD	26	26	154	650	177	55	19	100%	5.9	27.2%	8.5%	18.7%	2.9%	3.77	3.83	+2.8
2035	30	MLB	SD	24	24	144	608	163	53	19	100%	6.0	26.8%	8.8%	18.1%	3.1%	3.91	4.01	+2.3
2036	31	MLB	SD	22	22	135	570	151	52	19	100%	6.1	26.4%	9.1%	17.3%	3.3%	4.08	4.20	+1.9
2037	32	MLB	SD	21	21	125	528	137	50	19	100%	6.0	26.0%	9.5%	16.5%	3.5%	4.29	4.43	+1.4
2038	33	MLB	SD	19	19	114	481	123	48	18	100%	6.0	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	3.8%	4.51	4.67	+1.0
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			281	281	1644	6940	1868	600	201	100%	5.8	26.9%	8.6%	18.3%	2.9%	3.87	3.51	+36.4
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	227	73	24	100%	5.9	26.9%	8.6%	18.3%	2.9%	3.87	3.51	+4.4
Career	—			32	32	109	450	110	55	9	100%	3.4	24.4%	12.2%	12.2%	2.1%	3.13	3.71	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—			59	59	200	823	201	100	17	100%	3.4	24.4%	12.2%	12.2%	2.1%	3.13	3.71	+4.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kash Mayfield (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.18	25.8%	10.8%	2.8%	—	3.82	26.8%	17.9%	475	-0.36	—	—	—
Jordan Wicks L 2027 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	23.5%	7.9%	3.2%	.329	4.07	21.1%	12.8%	278	+0.18	2.93	431	83
Anthony Veneziano L 2028 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP	4.24	24.9%	10.8%	3.4%	.298	5.19	18.7%	8.0%	358	+0.95	4.24	501	83
Mason Molina L 2027 · 4.28 FIP	22	SP	4.28	22.7%	12.6%	2.7%	.276	3.56	23.3%	13.3%	69	-0.72	3.56	165	83
Adam Seminaris L 2027 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP	3.90	22.7%	8.3%	3.0%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.15	3.11	524	79
Connelly Early L 2027 · 3.30 FIP	22	SP	3.30	24.1%	9.8%	1.8%	.292	3.29	26.2%	17.0%	211	-0.01	2.52	315	79
Evan Lee L 2029 · 4.00 FIP	24	SP	4.00	24.2%	11.1%	2.8%	.333	4.48	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.48	3.84	129	79
Nick Zwack L 2028 · 3.10 FIP	23	SP	3.10	23.9%	9.3%	1.5%	.299	5.99	18.2%	8.4%	143	+2.89	3.10	271	79
Moises Brito L 2026 · 3.15 FIP	21	SP	3.15	22.9%	8.7%	1.6%	.250	7.75	18.0%	-2.5%	21	+4.60	2.56	106	78
T.J. Sikkema L 2029 · 4.71 FIP	24	SP	4.71	21.9%	9.0%	4.2%	.298	4.64	16.9%	7.4%	231	-0.07	3.39	300	78
Kyle Harrison L 2026 · 4.73 FIP	21	SP	4.73	28.8%	13.9%	4.2%	.280	3.72	24.4%	16.3%	320	-1.01	2.95	632	77
Hunter Barco L 2028 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP	3.51	23.4%	10.0%	2.0%	.275	3.79	22.7%	10.5%	150	+0.28	3.51	212	77
Sam Weatherly L 2027 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	24.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.28	3.86	189	77
Jake Bennett L 2027 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP	3.54	21.2%	7.2%	2.4%	.339	3.10	19.0%	12.8%	156	-0.44	2.79	219	77
David Shields L 2024 · 3.45 FIP	19	SP	3.45	22.6%	9.2%	2.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.75	148	77
Steve Hajjar L 2026 · 3.67 FIP	21	SP	3.67	30.2%	14.9%	2.2%	.282	6.02	16.4%	-7.8%	97	+2.35	3.67	141	77
Carson Dorsey L 2027 · 2.99 FIP	22	SP	2.99	24.5%	11.5%	0.9%	.313	5.47	18.3%	5.8%	65	+2.48	2.99	107	77
Carson Whisenhunt L 2027 · 3.18 FIP	22	SP	3.18	27.4%	11.1%	1.8%	.270	4.32	21.0%	10.7%	313	+1.14	3.18	372	77
Hayden Mullins L 2028 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP-	4.33	23.4%	12.4%	3.0%	.288	4.01	25.1%	10.7%	150	-0.32	3.72	239	77
Gage Jump L 2027 · 3.16 FIP	22	SP	3.16	22.6%	7.9%	1.8%	.286	3.32	26.1%	16.7%	87	+0.16	3.16	199	76
Jonathan Santucci L 2027 · 3.56 FIP	22	SP	3.56	22.6%	9.6%	2.1%	.294	3.49	24.7%	11.4%	80	-0.07	3.49	198	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	13	152	26.8%	8.8%	1.15	3.94
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
James Paxton ('24)	8	106	25.8%	7.7%	1.12	3.89
Trevor Bauer ('21)	7	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68