Kash Mayfield
P
Fort Wayne TinCaps
+0.6
WAR
Age 21
LHP
6'4" / 200 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.0 · 2031
ERA4.26
FIP4.26
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.9%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%13.7%
IP61
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2031
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 19 | 19 | 61 | 258 | 88 | 28 | 2 | 25.2% | 12.8% | 1.1% | 2.97 | 3.18 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 2 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 8 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 61 | 26 | 7 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 68 | 280 | 69 | 31 | 7 | 24.7% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 3.82 | 3.82 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 66 | 25 | 7 | 24.7% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.07 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 66 | 279 | 71 | 25 | 8 | 25.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.04 | 3.95 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 68 | 286 | 74 | 25 | 8 | 25.8% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.86 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 76 | 25 | 8 | 26.1% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 3.87 | 3.82 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 76 | 24 | 8 | 26.3% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 3.82 | 3.79 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 76 | 24 | 8 | 26.3% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 3.81 | 3.80 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 74 | 24 | 8 | 26.3% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 3.82 | 3.83 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 72 | 24 | 8 | 26.2% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 3.85 | 3.88 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 70 | 23 | 8 | 26.0% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 3.90 | 3.94 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 67 | 23 | 7 | 25.7% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 3.97 | 4.01 | +0.7 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | SD | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 63 | 22 | 7 | 25.4% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.05 | 4.10 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | SD | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 60 | 22 | 7 | 25.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.14 | 4.20 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | SD | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 56 | 21 | 7 | 24.8% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 21 | 68 | 282 | 73 | 38 | 3 | 25.9% | 13.5% | 1.0% | 2.66 | 3.16 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 62 | 200 | 833 | 216 | 112 | 9 | 25.9% | 13.5% | 1.0% | 2.66 | 3.16 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kash Mayfield (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 2.8% | — | 3.96 | 25.3% | 16.3% | 198 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Martinez L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.29 | 22.0% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .303 | 5.49 | 18.6% | 10.2% | 234 | +2.20 | 3.29 | 427 | 87 |
| Jake Bennett L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.40 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.17 | 17.4% | 10.3% | 83 | -0.23 | 1.70 | 146 | 86 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.58 | 23.2% | 6.8% | 2.9% | .259 | 4.25 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 106 | +0.67 | 3.58 | 206 | 85 |
| Keyshawn Askew L 2027 · 3.31 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.31 | 25.6% | 12.2% | 1.5% | .274 | 3.81 | 20.7% | 5.5% | 196 | +0.50 | 3.31 | 262 | 85 |
| Dominic LoBrutto L 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.21 | 21.4% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .333 | 3.46 | 17.8% | 10.6% | 84 | +0.25 | 2.99 | 135 | 85 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 84 |
| Taylor Hearn L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.97 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 3.2% | .347 | 4.00 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 236 | +0.03 | 3.74 | 572 | 84 |
| Carlos Peña L 2025 · 3.17 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.17 | 23.8% | 10.5% | 1.4% | .301 | 3.97 | 19.1% | 10.2% | 145 | +0.80 | 3.17 | 520 | 83 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2029 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.86 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.86 | 176 | 82 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.26 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .265 | 3.49 | 23.3% | 12.8% | 147 | +0.23 | 2.88 | 206 | 82 |
| Moises Brito L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.16 | 22.9% | 8.7% | 1.6% | .250 | 7.86 | 18.0% | -2.5% | 21 | +4.70 | 2.56 | 106 | 82 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2029 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 82 |
| José Torres L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.35 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 1.6% | .262 | 4.13 | 21.2% | 13.6% | 130 | +0.78 | 3.35 | 204 | 82 |
| Sonny Vargas L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.45 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 165 | 82 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2029 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 82 |
| Hunter Barco L 2028 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.59 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .275 | 3.43 | 23.9% | 11.5% | 99 | -0.16 | 3.43 | 161 | 82 |
| Chris Cotton L 2029 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.17 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.49 | 3.68 | 128 | 81 |
| Shane McCain L 2028 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.31 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .324 | 4.65 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.34 | 4.31 | 201 | 81 |
| Jaylen Nowlin L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.45 | 26.8% | 13.3% | 1.7% | .352 | 4.99 | 19.1% | 6.1% | 254 | +1.54 | 3.45 | 325 | 81 |
| Wesley Moore L 2028 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.66 | 25.9% | 13.2% | 2.0% | .254 | 4.19 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 58 | +0.53 | 3.66 | 111 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.9 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +0.8 | $4M | -$0.4M |
| Totals | $13M | $30M | +$17M | ||