Eduardo Tait
C Cedar Rapids Kernels| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | A/ROKPHI | 326 | .302/.366/.486 | 11 | 5 | 73 | — | .224/.278/.356 |
| 2025 | 18 | A+/A2 orgs | 486 | .253/.316/.427 | 14 | 0 | 63 | — | .208/.257/.336 |
| 2026 | 19 | A+MIN | 520 | .221/.285/.418 | 22 | 2 | 51 | — | .181/.232/.337 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 20 | MLBMIN | 9 | .219/.267/.372 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ45% MLB | 21 | MLBMIN | 200 | .226/.276/.393 | 7 | 2 | 85 | 0.4 | |
| 2029PROJ62% MLB | 22 | MLBMIN | 274 | .233/.285/.415 | 11 | 3 | 94 | 0.9 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 16 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | — | 165 | 147 | 49 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 31 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 333 | 402 | 517 | 919 | 184 | 404 | 19 | 7 | 404 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 114 | 104 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 269 | 321 | 462 | 783 | 192 | 338 | 29 | 7 | 339 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 212 | 184 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 31 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 321 | 390 | 500 | 890 | 179 | 344 | 15 | 6 | 382 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 154 | 147 | 38 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 288 | 408 | 696 | 150 | 318 | 23 | 4 | 305 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 332 | 291 | 73 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 30 | 64 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 251 | 329 | 436 | 766 | 186 | 278 | 19 | 9 | 334 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 520 | 471 | 104 | 25 | 1 | 22 | 35 | 119 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 221 | 285 | 418 | 703 | 197 | 243 | 23 | 7 | 307 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 165 | 150 | 33 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 220 | 287 | 340 | 627 | 120 | 271 | 24 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 114 | 106 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 241 | 321 | 562 | 123 | 297 | 40 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 212 | 189 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 43 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 238 | 298 | 376 | 673 | 138 | 254 | 20 | 4 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 154 | 149 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 222 | 302 | 524 | 101 | 272 | 29 | 3 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 332 | 299 | 63 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 82 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 274 | 351 | 625 | 140 | 245 | 25 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 520 | 481 | 87 | 19 | 1 | 18 | 25 | 151 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 181 | 232 | 337 | 569 | 156 | 211 | 29 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 165 | 150 | 33 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 220 | 287 | 340 | 627 | 120 | 282 | 24 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 16 | ROK RAW | DSL Phillies White | — | 165 | 147 | 49 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 31 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 333 | 402 | 517 | 919 | 184 | 404 | 19 | 7 | 404 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 326 | 295 | 67 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 89 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 227 | 281 | 369 | 650 | 142 | 282 | 27 | 4 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 326 | 288 | 87 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 64 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 302 | 366 | 486 | 852 | 184 | 342 | 20 | 6 | 367 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 486 | 447 | 94 | 25 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 127 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 262 | 345 | 606 | 134 | 262 | 26 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 486 | 438 | 111 | 32 | 1 | 14 | 36 | 99 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 253 | 316 | 427 | 743 | 174 | 291 | 20 | 7 | 325 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 520 | 481 | 87 | 19 | 1 | 18 | 25 | 151 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 181 | 232 | 337 | 569 | 156 | 216 | 29 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ RAW | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 520 | 471 | 104 | 25 | 1 | 22 | 35 | 119 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 221 | 285 | 418 | 703 | 197 | 243 | 23 | 7 | 307 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 165 | 150 | 33 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 220 | 287 | 340 | 627 | 120 | 271 | 24 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 326 | 301 | 67 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 89 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 223 | 281 | 362 | 643 | 140 | 269 | 27 | 4 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 486 | 452 | 94 | 25 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 127 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 262 | 341 | 602 | 133 | 254 | 26 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 520 | 483 | 87 | 19 | 1 | 18 | 25 | 151 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 180 | 232 | 335 | 567 | 155 | 211 | 29 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 326 | 301 | 67 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 89 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 223 | 281 | 362 | 643 | 140 | 269 | 27 | 4 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 486 | 452 | 94 | 25 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 127 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 262 | 341 | 602 | 133 | 254 | 26 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 520 | 483 | 87 | 19 | 1 | 18 | 25 | 151 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 180 | 232 | 335 | 567 | 155 | 211 | 29 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB MLE | MIN | 4% | 630 | 587 | 130 | 30 | 2 | 19 | 32 | 162 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 219 | 266 | 371 | 637 | 152 | 267 | 26 | 5 | 282 | 77 | -17 | +0 | -2 | +11 | +14 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB CTX | MIN | 4% | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 267 | 372 | 638 | 152 | 268 | 22 | 0 | 282 | 77 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 21 | MLB MLE | MIN | 45% | 445 | 413 | 93 | 21 | 1 | 15 | 24 | 111 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 226 | 276 | 393 | 668 | 167 | 270 | 25 | 5 | 294 | 85 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +10 | 0.9 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB MLE | MIN | 62% | 445 | 412 | 95 | 21 | 1 | 17 | 25 | 108 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 233 | 284 | 414 | 698 | 181 | 272 | 24 | 6 | 307 | 94 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +10 | 1.4 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB MLE | MIN | 68% | 445 | 411 | 97 | 21 | 1 | 18 | 26 | 106 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 238 | 291 | 429 | 720 | 191 | 274 | 24 | 6 | 316 | 100 | -0 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +10 | 1.8 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIN | 70% | 445 | 410 | 98 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 27 | 105 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 241 | 296 | 438 | 734 | 197 | 276 | 24 | 6 | 321 | 104 | +2 | +0 | -0 | +8 | +10 | 2.0 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIN | 70% | 445 | 409 | 99 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 28 | 104 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 243 | 299 | 442 | 741 | 199 | 277 | 23 | 6 | 324 | 106 | +3 | +0 | -0 | +8 | +10 | 2.1 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIN | 71% | 445 | 409 | 98 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 28 | 104 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 243 | 299 | 444 | 743 | 201 | 276 | 23 | 6 | 325 | 106 | +3 | +0 | -0 | +8 | +10 | 2.1 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIN | 69% | 445 | 409 | 98 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 28 | 105 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 242 | 298 | 441 | 739 | 199 | 276 | 24 | 6 | 324 | 105 | +3 | +0 | -0 | +8 | +10 | 2.1 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIN | 69% | 445 | 410 | 98 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 28 | 106 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 240 | 296 | 436 | 732 | 196 | 275 | 24 | 6 | 321 | 103 | +2 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +10 | 1.9 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIN | 67% | 445 | 410 | 97 | 20 | 1 | 19 | 28 | 107 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 237 | 293 | 430 | 723 | 193 | 273 | 24 | 6 | 317 | 101 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +8 | +10 | 1.7 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIN | 66% | 445 | 410 | 96 | 20 | 1 | 18 | 28 | 108 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 234 | 290 | 422 | 712 | 188 | 271 | 24 | 6 | 312 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -2 | +8 | +10 | 1.4 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB MLE | MIN | 65% | 426 | 393 | 91 | 19 | 1 | 17 | 26 | 105 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 230 | 285 | 412 | 697 | 182 | 268 | 25 | 6 | 306 | 93 | -3 | +0 | -3 | +8 | +9 | 1.1 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB MLE | MIN | 65% | 407 | 377 | 86 | 18 | 1 | 16 | 24 | 103 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 225 | 278 | 399 | 677 | 175 | 264 | 25 | 6 | 298 | 88 | -6 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +9 | 0.7 |
| 2040 | 33 | MLB MLE | MIN | 70% | 387 | 358 | 79 | 16 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 100 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 270 | 383 | 653 | 165 | 258 | 26 | 6 | 288 | 81 | -9 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2041 | 34 | MLB MLE | MIN | 66% | 346 | 321 | 67 | 13 | 0 | 12 | 20 | 92 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 260 | 364 | 624 | 155 | 251 | 27 | 6 | 276 | 73 | -11 | +0 | -5 | +6 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB CTX | MIN | 45% | 200 | 185 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 50 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 226 | 276 | 393 | 669 | 167 | 270 | 25 | 6 | 295 | 85 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB CTX | MIN | 62% | 274 | 254 | 60 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 67 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 233 | 285 | 415 | 699 | 182 | 272 | 24 | 5 | 307 | 94 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.9 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB CTX | MIN | 68% | 305 | 281 | 67 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 18 | 73 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 238 | 291 | 430 | 721 | 192 | 274 | 24 | 6 | 316 | 100 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +5 | +7 | 1.2 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIN | 70% | 310 | 285 | 69 | 15 | 1 | 13 | 19 | 73 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 241 | 296 | 439 | 735 | 198 | 276 | 24 | 6 | 322 | 104 | +1 | +0 | -0 | +6 | +7 | 1.4 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIN | 70% | 313 | 287 | 71 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 20 | 73 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 243 | 299 | 443 | 742 | 200 | 277 | 23 | 6 | 325 | 106 | +2 | +0 | -0 | +6 | +7 | 1.5 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIN | 71% | 314 | 288 | 71 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 20 | 73 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 243 | 299 | 445 | 744 | 201 | 277 | 23 | 6 | 326 | 106 | +2 | +0 | -0 | +6 | +7 | 1.5 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIN | 69% | 309 | 283 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 20 | 73 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 242 | 298 | 442 | 740 | 200 | 276 | 24 | 6 | 324 | 105 | +2 | +0 | -0 | +6 | +7 | 1.4 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIN | 69% | 306 | 281 | 67 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 19 | 73 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 240 | 296 | 437 | 734 | 197 | 275 | 24 | 6 | 321 | 103 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +7 | 1.3 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIN | 67% | 297 | 273 | 66 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 19 | 71 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 238 | 293 | 431 | 724 | 193 | 274 | 24 | 6 | 318 | 101 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 1.1 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIN | 66% | 293 | 270 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 18 | 71 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 290 | 423 | 713 | 189 | 272 | 24 | 6 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | 1.0 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB CTX | MIN | 65% | 278 | 257 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 17 | 69 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 285 | 413 | 698 | 183 | 268 | 25 | 6 | 307 | 93 | -2 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB CTX | MIN | 65% | 264 | 244 | 54 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 16 | 67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 278 | 400 | 679 | 175 | 264 | 25 | 6 | 299 | 88 | -4 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2040 | 33 | MLB CTX | MIN | 70% | 272 | 252 | 54 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 16 | 70 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 270 | 384 | 654 | 166 | 259 | 26 | 6 | 289 | 81 | -6 | +0 | -3 | +5 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2041 | 34 | MLB CTX | MIN | 66% | 227 | 210 | 44 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 60 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 260 | 365 | 625 | 155 | 251 | 26 | 6 | 276 | 73 | -7 | +0 | -3 | +4 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3962 | 3650 | 856 | 180 | 11 | 162 | 241 | 963 | 37 | 23 | 6 | 235 | 289 | 423 | 712 | 188 | 273 | 24 | 6 | 311 | 89 | -17 | +2 | -17 | +71 | +86 | 12.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 599 | 142 | 30 | 2 | 27 | 40 | 158 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 237 | 291 | 429 | 721 | 192 | 276 | 24 | 6 | 311 | 89 | -3 | +0 | -3 | +12 | +14 | 2.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 7723 | 7120 | 1616 | 349 | 19 | 287 | 449 | 1924 | 85 | 44 | 11 | 227 | 281 | 402 | 683 | 175 | 268 | 25 | 6 | 299 | 89 | -34 | +3 | -27 | +111 | +135 | 19.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 599 | 136 | 29 | 2 | 24 | 38 | 162 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 227 | 281 | 402 | 683 | 175 | 268 | 25 | 6 | 299 | 89 | -4 | +0 | -3 | +12 | +14 | 2.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 520 PAwOBA .302 → .244 (−58)K% 22.9% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.88% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 29.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 4.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 1.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.91% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 14.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 5.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 0.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 5.21% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .302 → .244; ISO .197 → .156; BABIP .243 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AClearwater Threshers · 332 PAwOBA .332 → .275 (−57)K% 19.3% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.28% | ÷1.065 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.04% | ÷0.975 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 6.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.50% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×0.969 | ×1.045 | 16.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.37% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×0.969 | ×1.045 | 7.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.44% | ÷0.923 | ×0.910 | ×0.969 | ×1.045 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.85% | ÷1.083 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 3.74% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 113, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .332 → .275; ISO .186 → .149; BABIP .278 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 154 PAwOBA .299 → .234 (−64)K% 22.7% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.73% | ÷0.979 | ×1.270 | — | — | 29.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.90% | ÷0.989 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.050 | 2.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.64% | ÷0.990 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 18.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.61% | ÷1.088 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 8.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.943 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.68% | ÷0.962 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 2.34% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .299 → .234; ISO .150 → .111; BABIP .318 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Phillies · 212 PAwOBA .385 → .290 (−95)K% 14.6% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.62% | ÷1.042 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.13% | ÷0.982 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 3.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.77% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 2.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.49% | ÷1.073 | ×0.820 | ×0.966 | ×1.022 | 19.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.50% | ÷1.015 | ×0.720 | ×0.966 | ×1.022 | 5.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷0.994 | ×0.720 | ×0.966 | ×1.022 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.92% | ÷0.924 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 3.39% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 115, 2B 103, 3B 99, K 108, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .385 → .290; ISO .179 → .144; BABIP .344 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AClearwater Threshers · 114 PAwOBA .336 → .251 (−85)K% 28.9% → 40.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.95% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 40.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.02% | ÷0.973 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 5.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.35% | ÷1.042 | ×0.920 | ×0.968 | ×1.050 | 22.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | ×0.968 | ×1.050 | 6.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.132 | ×0.910 | ×0.968 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.04% | ÷1.115 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 5.30% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 126, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .336 → .251; ISO .192 → .133; BABIP .338 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Phillies White · 165 PAwOBA .395 → .263 (−133)K% 18.8% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.79% | ÷0.960 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.27% | ÷0.964 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 5.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.03% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.72% | ÷0.986 | ×0.680 | ×0.984 | ×1.022 | 18.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.34% | ÷0.915 | ×0.600 | ×0.984 | ×1.022 | 6.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.59% | ÷1.016 | ×0.600 | ×0.984 | ×1.022 | 1.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.59% | ÷0.794 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 1.56% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 59, 1B 97, 2B 83, 3B 103, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .395 → .263; ISO .184 → .112; BABIP .404 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).