Berny Ortiz

P FCL Red Sox

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 167 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#426ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKDSL Red Sox R…	11	9	40	4.69	3.27	20.0%	12.2%	—	K 13.6% · BB 15.3% · FIP 4.37
2026	20	MIX2 levels	17	13	46	8.08	3.32	21.0%	15.5%	—	K 14.7% · BB 19.2% · FIP 4.30
2027PROJ	21	MLBBOS	—	—	0	5.77	5.77	18.2%	18.4%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBBOS	8	8	44	5.32	5.14	20.5%	15.4%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBBOS	14	14	79	4.96	4.76	22.0%	13.5%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$2M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 97%

CompsKyle Larsen (age 21) · Aaron Hernandez (age 22) · Hunter Parks (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 126

ERA5.77

FIP5.77

K%18.2%

BB%18.4%

K-BB%-0.2%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	11	9	40	180	36	22	1	82%	3.7	13.6%	15.3%	-1.7%	0.9%	4.69	4.37	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	11	9	40	180	36	22	1	82%	3.7	13.6%	15.3%	-1.7%	0.9%	4.69	4.37	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	11	9	40	180	36	22	1	82%	3.7	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	0.6%	4.69	3.27	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	46	219	46	34	0	76%	2.7	14.7%	19.2%	-4.6%	0.0%	8.08	4.30	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	46	219	46	34	0	76%	2.7	14.7%	19.2%	-4.6%	0.0%	8.08	4.30	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	13	46	219	46	34	0	76%	2.7	21.0%	15.5%	5.5%	0.0%	8.08	3.32	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.2%	18.4%	-0.2%	2.7%	5.77	5.77	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	90	380	78	59	10	100%	5.6	20.5%	15.4%	5.1%	2.7%	5.36	5.18	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	BOS	20	20	108	456	100	61	12	100%	5.4	22.0%	13.5%	8.5%	2.7%	5.00	4.80	+0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	BOS	21	21	115	486	111	59	13	100%	5.5	22.9%	12.2%	10.7%	2.7%	4.72	4.56	+1.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	BOS	20	20	115	485	113	55	13	100%	5.7	23.4%	11.4%	12.0%	2.7%	4.53	4.41	+1.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	115	485	115	55	13	100%	6.0	23.6%	11.4%	12.3%	2.7%	4.44	4.38	+1.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	112	473	112	54	13	100%	5.9	23.6%	11.4%	12.2%	2.7%	4.43	4.42	+1.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	107	452	106	52	13	100%	5.9	23.5%	11.6%	11.9%	2.8%	4.47	4.50	+1.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	100	421	98	50	12	100%	5.9	23.3%	11.8%	11.4%	3.0%	4.57	4.63	+0.9
2036	30	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	91	384	88	47	12	100%	6.1	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	3.2%	4.71	4.81	+0.6
2037	31	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	82	347	78	43	12	100%	5.9	22.5%	12.5%	10.1%	3.4%	4.89	5.01	+0.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	74	310	68	40	11	100%	6.1	22.1%	12.9%	9.2%	3.6%	5.10	5.24	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	44	186	38	29	5	100%	5.5	20.5%	15.4%	5.1%	2.6%	5.32	5.14	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	79	334	73	45	9	100%	5.6	22.0%	13.5%	8.5%	2.6%	4.96	4.76	+0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	BOS	17	17	95	401	92	49	10	100%	5.6	22.9%	12.2%	10.7%	2.6%	4.68	4.52	+0.9
2031	25	MLB CTX	BOS	17	17	101	426	100	49	11	100%	5.9	23.4%	11.4%	12.0%	2.6%	4.49	4.37	+1.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	BOS	18	18	105	443	105	50	11	100%	5.8	23.6%	11.4%	12.3%	2.6%	4.40	4.34	+1.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	BOS	17	17	104	439	104	50	12	100%	6.1	23.6%	11.4%	12.2%	2.6%	4.39	4.38	+1.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	BOS	17	17	100	422	99	49	12	100%	5.9	23.5%	11.6%	11.9%	2.7%	4.43	4.46	+1.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	95	401	93	47	12	100%	5.9	23.3%	11.8%	11.4%	2.9%	4.53	4.59	+0.9
2036	30	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	86	363	83	44	11	100%	6.1	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	3.1%	4.67	4.77	+0.6
2037	31	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	78	329	74	41	11	100%	6.0	22.5%	12.5%	10.1%	3.3%	4.84	4.96	+0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	70	296	65	38	10	100%	5.8	22.1%	12.9%	9.2%	3.5%	5.05	5.19	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		164	164	958	4045	927	492	114	100%	5.8	22.9%	12.2%	10.8%	2.8%	4.65	4.25	+13.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	194	103	24	100%	5.8	22.9%	12.2%	10.8%	2.8%	4.65	4.25	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		28	22	86	399	57	70	2	79%	3.1	14.2%	17.5%	-3.3%	0.4%	6.49	4.33	+9.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	51	200	928	132	162	4	79%	3.1	14.2%	17.5%	-3.3%	0.4%	6.49	4.33	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Red Sox · 30 IPFIP 3.73 → 4.90 (+1.17)K% 20.9% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.92%	—	×0.680	14.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.95%	—	×1.250	23.69%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.73 → 4.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ASalem RidgeYaks · 16 IPFIP 2.27 → 2.91 (+0.64)K% 21.2% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.21%	—	×0.740	15.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.58%	—	×1.180	8.94%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.27 → 2.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Red Sox Red · 40 IPFIP 3.26 → 4.37 (+1.11)K% 20.0% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.680	13.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.22%	—	×1.250	15.28%
HR / BF /BF	0.56%	÷0.880	×1.400	0.88%

Result: FIP 3.26 → 4.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Berny Ortiz (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.82	21.9%	8.3%	313	-0.95	—	—	—
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	89
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	84
Hunter Parks R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	18.7%	16.8%	2.8%	.312	5.23	17.7%	-0.3%	163	+0.06	4.42	301	83
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	83
José Leclerc R 2015 · 5.02 FIP	21	SP	5.02	16.8%	17.0%	2.1%	.304	3.15	30.0%	15.1%	184	-1.87	1.48	527	81
Jefferson Jean R 2024 · 6.45 FIP	19	SP-	6.45	18.3%	21.5%	4.0%	.311	4.79	16.9%	-0.3%	87	-1.66	4.79	132	81
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	81
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	81
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	80
Gage Stanifer R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	20	SP	5.65	17.2%	21.4%	2.4%	.318	3.96	26.2%	11.6%	199	-1.69	2.85	301	80
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	80
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	79
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	79
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	79
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	79
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	79
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	78
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	78
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	77
Kevin Gowdy R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP-	5.31	11.1%	17.0%	1.8%	.321	5.50	16.3%	6.0%	130	+0.19	3.11	333	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.9	99	22.5%	12.7%	1.11	4.79
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Joe Decker ('69-'79, 6 WAR*)	3.5	101	21.4%*	11.8%*	1.04*	4.49*
Bill Butler ('69-'77, 2 WAR*)	3.0	99	22.0%*	11.3%*	1.30*	4.83*
Tom Griffin ('69-'82, 1 WAR*)	7.5	107	22.6%*	11.4%*	1.21*	4.93*
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64