Berny Ortiz — OGILVIE

Berny Ortiz P FCL Red Sox

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 167 lbs ROK peak 0.8 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.10

FIP6.10

K%14.1%

BB%17.5%

K-BB%-3.4%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3030

CMD2525

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	11	9	40	180	36	22	1	82%	3.7	13.6%	15.3%	-1.7%	0.9%	4.69	4.37	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	11	9	40	180	36	22	1	82%	3.7	13.6%	15.3%	-1.7%	0.9%	4.69	4.37	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	11	9	40	180	36	22	1	82%	3.7	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	0.6%	4.69	3.27	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Salem RidgeYaks	17	13	46	219	46	34	0	76%	2.7	14.7%	19.2%	-4.6%	0.0%	8.08	4.30	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Salem RidgeYaks	17	13	46	219	46	34	0	76%	2.7	14.7%	19.2%	-4.6%	0.0%	8.08	4.30	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	BOS	12	10	30	153	32	29	0	83%	2.5	20.9%	19.0%	2.0%	0.0%	10.20	3.73	—
2026	20	A RAW	BOS	5	3	16	66	14	5	0	60%	3.1	21.2%	7.6%	13.6%	0.0%	4.02	2.27	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	47	198	32	31	6	100%	5.2	16.0%	15.7%	0.3%	2.8%	5.78	5.68	-0.4
2028	22	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	49	208	37	30	6	100%	5.5	17.7%	14.3%	3.4%	2.8%	5.47	5.33	-0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	51	215	40	29	6	100%	5.7	18.7%	13.4%	5.3%	2.8%	5.24	5.11	-0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	52	221	43	28	6	100%	5.8	19.4%	12.9%	6.5%	2.7%	5.08	4.98	-0.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	53	224	44	28	6	100%	5.9	19.8%	12.6%	7.1%	2.7%	4.98	4.91	-0.0
2032	26	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	53	224	45	28	6	100%	5.9	20.0%	12.6%	7.4%	2.7%	4.92	4.89	+0.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	52	220	44	28	6	100%	5.8	19.9%	12.7%	7.3%	2.8%	4.92	4.92	-0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	BOS	4	4	23	97	16	15	3	100%	5.8	16.0%	15.7%	0.3%	2.8%	5.78	5.68	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	36	152	27	22	4	100%	5.1	17.7%	14.3%	3.4%	2.8%	5.47	5.33	-0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	43	182	34	24	5	100%	5.4	18.7%	13.4%	5.3%	2.8%	5.24	5.11	-0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	47	198	38	26	5	100%	5.9	19.4%	12.9%	6.5%	2.7%	5.08	4.98	-0.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	49	207	41	26	6	100%	6.1	19.8%	12.6%	7.1%	2.7%	4.98	4.91	-0.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	49	207	41	26	6	100%	6.1	20.0%	12.6%	7.4%	2.7%	4.92	4.89	+0.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	50	211	42	27	6	100%	6.2	19.9%	12.7%	7.3%	2.8%	4.92	4.92	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	53	296	1251	238	165	35	100%	5.6	19.1%	13.2%	5.8%	2.8%	5.14	4.68	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	161	111	24	100%	5.6	19.1%	13.2%	5.8%	2.8%	5.14	4.68	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		28	22	86	399	57	70	2	79%	3.1	14.2%	17.5%	-3.3%	0.4%	6.49	4.33	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	51	200	928	132	162	4	79%	3.1	14.2%	17.5%	-3.3%	0.4%	6.49	4.33	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Berny Ortiz (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.10	14.1%	17.5%	2.9%	—	5.37	17.5%	3.1%	147	-0.73	—	—	—
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	86
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	86
Darlin Alcántara R 2022 · 6.23 FIP	20	SP-	6.23	12.3%	22.2%	2.5%	.320	4.64	12.3%	2.5%	31	-1.59	3.61	118	86
Eliezer Pena R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	17	SP	6.54	10.5%	18.5%	3.6%	.265	4.47	18.1%	1.2%	114	-2.07	3.26	150	85
Enrique Segura R 2023 · 6.44 FIP	18	SP	6.44	13.2%	21.3%	3.2%	.269	5.60	16.4%	2.4%	234	-0.84	4.12	313	85
Camilo Sanchez R 2023 · 6.65 FIP	20	SP-	6.65	10.0%	18.5%	3.8%	.317	5.84	14.8%	0.8%	62	-0.81	3.57	117	84
Jorge Bautista R 2021 · 6.09 FIP	20	SP	6.09	13.1%	16.5%	3.6%	.297	4.86	16.8%	7.5%	231	-1.23	3.80	336	84
Randry De Leon R 2023 · 6.45 FIP	18	SP-	6.45	17.7%	20.2%	4.2%	.308	4.83	18.4%	3.3%	123	-1.62	4.37	153	84
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	83
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	83
Harold Chirino R 2017 · 6.05 FIP	19	SP-	6.05	13.2%	16.0%	3.7%	.327	3.11	19.0%	6.2%	34	-2.94	3.11	321	83
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	83
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	82
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP	5.48	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	.297	3.58	20.0%	6.5%	158	-1.90	3.12	188	82
Hunter Stratton R 2017 · 5.73 FIP	20	SP	5.73	13.1%	20.3%	2.1%	.266	4.69	14.5%	0.1%	174	-1.04	3.02	527	82
Mason McGwire R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	19	SP	6.54	13.2%	19.6%	3.8%	.374	4.91	18.1%	3.8%	120	-1.63	4.11	155	82
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	82
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	82
Julio Pinto R 2016 · 5.05 FIP	20	SP-	5.05	13.0%	15.8%	1.9%	.293	6.08	15.5%	-0.9%	182	+1.03	4.41	368	81
Irv Carter R 2023 · 7.11 FIP	20	SP-	7.11	11.4%	18.9%	4.7%	.266	5.51	18.8%	6.1%	150	-1.60	4.81	236	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	48	18.5%	13.7%	1.07	5.25
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58