Caleb Durbin
3B Boston Red Sox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs | 522 | .283/.402/.473 | 15 | 60 | 119 | — | .249/.339/.380 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAAMIL | 58 | .278/.316/.481 | 2 | 3 | 82 | — | .255/.281/.400 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLBMIL | 506 | .256/.337/.387 | 11 | 18 | 108 | 2.2 | |
| 2026 | 26 | MLBBOS | 586 | .248/.334/.378 | 13 | 20 | 96 | 1.5 | |
| 2027PROJ | 27 | MLBBOS | 522 | .250/.332/.379 | 11 | 19 | 98 | 1.6 | |
| 2028PROJ98% MLB | 28 | MLBBOS | 502 | .248/.330/.374 | 10 | 16 | 96 | 1.3 | |
| 2029PROJ98% MLB | 29 | MLBBOS | 488 | .246/.327/.368 | 10 | 13 | 94 | 1.0 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Braves | — | 62 | 56 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 268 | 339 | 304 | 642 | 36 | 283 | 5 | 8 | 299 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Rome Braves | — | 124 | 109 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 220 | 309 | 330 | 639 | 110 | 245 | 12 | 6 | 292 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 333 | 273 | 68 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 42 | 35 | 13 | 28 | 3 | 249 | 375 | 388 | 763 | 139 | 258 | 11 | 13 | 345 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 194 | 175 | 51 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 7 | 291 | 361 | 440 | 801 | 149 | 290 | 5 | 6 | 359 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 97 | 78 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 333 | 464 | 397 | 861 | 64 | 377 | 9 | 14 | 401 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 103 | 85 | 30 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 353 | 461 | 588 | 1.049 | 235 | 355 | 7 | 14 | 454 | 193 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 375 | 310 | 89 | 23 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 37 | 11 | 29 | 3 | 287 | 399 | 471 | 870 | 184 | 297 | 10 | 13 | 382 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 30 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 125 | 300 | 208 | 508 | 83 | 143 | 10 | 20 | 255 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 117 | 93 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 29 | 1 | 312 | 439 | 548 | 987 | 237 | 282 | 5 | 15 | 423 | 173 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | — | 506 | 445 | 114 | 25 | 0 | 11 | 30 | 50 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 256 | 337 | 387 | 723 | 130 | 265 | 10 | 6 | 324 | 108 | +5 | +1 | +2 | +2 | +11 | 2.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 58 | 54 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 278 | 316 | 481 | 797 | 204 | 277 | 9 | 5 | 343 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 586 | 508 | 126 | 25 | 1 | 13 | 51 | 79 | 15 | 20 | 6 | 248 | 334 | 378 | 712 | 130 | 269 | 13 | 9 | 318 | 96 | -3 | +2 | +1 | +2 | +13 | 1.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 1092 | 953 | 240 | 50 | 1 | 24 | 81 | 129 | 39 | 38 | 12 | 252 | 335 | 382 | 717 | 130 | 267 | 12 | 7 | 321 | 103 | +4 | +3 | +4 | +4 | +24 | 3.9 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Braves | — | 62 | 58 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 207 | 258 | 241 | 499 | 34 | 223 | 6 | 5 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Rome Braves | — | 124 | 112 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 196 | 268 | 295 | 563 | 98 | 211 | 16 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 333 | 286 | 66 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 45 | 13 | 28 | 3 | 231 | 329 | 339 | 668 | 108 | 244 | 14 | 9 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 194 | 178 | 49 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 21 | 7 | 275 | 335 | 399 | 734 | 124 | 279 | 6 | 5 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 97 | 84 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 286 | 381 | 333 | 715 | 48 | 327 | 12 | 8 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 375 | 324 | 84 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 33 | 45 | 11 | 29 | 3 | 259 | 348 | 395 | 743 | 136 | 275 | 12 | 9 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 30 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 115 | 233 | 192 | 426 | 77 | 136 | 13 | 13 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | Milwaukee Brewers | — | 506 | 445 | 115 | 27 | 0 | 10 | 30 | 50 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 258 | 339 | 387 | 725 | 128 | 265 | 10 | 6 | 327 | 108 | +5 | +1 | +2 | +2 | +11 | 2.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 58 | 55 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 255 | 281 | 400 | 681 | 145 | 258 | 10 | 3 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 586 | 510 | 122 | 22 | 1 | 13 | 50 | 79 | 15 | 20 | 6 | 239 | 325 | 363 | 688 | 124 | 269 | 13 | 9 | 310 | 96 | -3 | +2 | +1 | +2 | +13 | 1.5 |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Braves | — | 62 | 58 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 207 | 258 | 241 | 499 | 34 | 222 | 6 | 5 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK RAW | FCL Braves | — | 62 | 56 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 268 | 339 | 304 | 642 | 36 | 283 | 5 | 8 | 299 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 457 | 398 | 87 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 66 | 19 | 31 | 5 | 219 | 310 | 324 | 635 | 106 | 244 | 14 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 457 | 382 | 92 | 22 | 2 | 8 | 50 | 50 | 19 | 31 | 5 | 241 | 357 | 372 | 729 | 131 | 255 | 11 | 11 | 331 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 394 | 356 | 98 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 31 | 15 | 57 | 10 | 275 | 344 | 371 | 714 | 96 | 292 | 8 | 6 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 394 | 338 | 107 | 26 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 25 | 15 | 57 | 10 | 317 | 412 | 467 | 880 | 151 | 326 | 6 | 10 | 394 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 522 | 449 | 112 | 27 | 3 | 9 | 48 | 63 | 15 | 60 | 5 | 249 | 342 | 383 | 725 | 134 | 269 | 12 | 9 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 522 | 427 | 121 | 30 | 3 | 15 | 70 | 46 | 15 | 60 | 5 | 283 | 402 | 473 | 875 | 190 | 285 | 9 | 13 | 384 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 564 | 500 | 129 | 31 | 0 | 12 | 32 | 56 | 24 | 21 | 8 | 258 | 333 | 392 | 725 | 134 | 268 | 10 | 6 | 323 | 105 | +3 | +1 | +2 | +2 | +12 | 2.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 564 | 499 | 129 | 30 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 55 | 24 | 21 | 8 | 259 | 335 | 397 | 731 | 138 | 267 | 10 | 6 | 326 | 105 | +3 | +1 | +2 | +2 | +12 | 2.2 |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 586 | 510 | 122 | 22 | 1 | 13 | 50 | 79 | 15 | 20 | 6 | 239 | 325 | 363 | 688 | 124 | 258 | 13 | 9 | 310 | 96 | -3 | +2 | +1 | +2 | +13 | 1.5 |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB RAW | Boston Red Sox | — | 586 | 508 | 126 | 25 | 1 | 13 | 51 | 79 | 15 | 20 | 6 | 248 | 334 | 378 | 712 | 130 | 269 | 13 | 9 | 318 | 96 | -3 | +2 | +1 | +2 | +13 | 1.5 |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Braves | — | 62 | 58 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 207 | 258 | 241 | 499 | 34 | 223 | 6 | 5 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 457 | 401 | 87 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 66 | 19 | 31 | 5 | 217 | 310 | 322 | 632 | 105 | 235 | 14 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 394 | 354 | 98 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 31 | 15 | 57 | 10 | 277 | 344 | 373 | 716 | 96 | 295 | 8 | 6 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 522 | 454 | 112 | 27 | 3 | 9 | 48 | 63 | 15 | 60 | 5 | 247 | 342 | 379 | 721 | 132 | 265 | 12 | 9 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 564 | 503 | 129 | 31 | 0 | 12 | 32 | 56 | 24 | 21 | 8 | 256 | 333 | 390 | 722 | 133 | 265 | 10 | 6 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 586 | 516 | 122 | 22 | 1 | 13 | 50 | 79 | 15 | 20 | 6 | 236 | 325 | 359 | 684 | 122 | 269 | 13 | 9 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 522 | 454 | 112 | 27 | 3 | 9 | 48 | 63 | 15 | 60 | 5 | 247 | 342 | 379 | 721 | 132 | 265 | 12 | 9 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 564 | 503 | 129 | 31 | 0 | 12 | 32 | 56 | 24 | 21 | 8 | 256 | 333 | 390 | 722 | 133 | 265 | 10 | 6 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 586 | 516 | 122 | 22 | 1 | 13 | 50 | 79 | 15 | 20 | 6 | 236 | 325 | 359 | 684 | 122 | 269 | 13 | 9 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | BOS | 100% | 544 | 480 | 117 | 23 | 1 | 12 | 43 | 70 | 16 | 20 | 5 | 243 | 326 | 368 | 694 | 125 | 260 | 13 | 8 | 314 | 98 | -1 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +12 | 2.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | BOS | 100% | 522 | 460 | 116 | 25 | 1 | 11 | 41 | 67 | 16 | 19 | 4 | 250 | 332 | 379 | 712 | 129 | 270 | 13 | 8 | 321 | 98 | -1 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +11 | 1.6 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | BOS | 98% | 512 | 452 | 109 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 40 | 67 | 15 | 16 | 4 | 241 | 323 | 363 | 686 | 122 | 259 | 13 | 8 | 311 | 96 | -2 | +2 | +1 | +2 | +11 | 1.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB MLE | BOS | 98% | 498 | 441 | 105 | 21 | 1 | 10 | 39 | 67 | 15 | 13 | 3 | 238 | 320 | 356 | 677 | 118 | 258 | 13 | 8 | 307 | 94 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +11 | 1.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB MLE | BOS | 98% | 483 | 429 | 101 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 37 | 66 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 234 | 316 | 347 | 664 | 113 | 256 | 14 | 8 | 302 | 90 | -6 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +10 | 0.7 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB MLE | BOS | 98% | 466 | 414 | 94 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 66 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 229 | 311 | 336 | 647 | 107 | 252 | 14 | 8 | 295 | 86 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +10 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB MLE | BOS | 98% | 444 | 396 | 88 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 65 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 222 | 303 | 320 | 624 | 98 | 247 | 15 | 7 | 286 | 79 | -11 | -0 | -2 | +2 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | BOS | 98% | 502 | 442 | 110 | 24 | 1 | 10 | 40 | 66 | 15 | 16 | 4 | 248 | 330 | 374 | 705 | 126 | 269 | 13 | 8 | 318 | 96 | -2 | +2 | +1 | +2 | +11 | 1.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB CTX | BOS | 98% | 488 | 433 | 107 | 23 | 1 | 10 | 38 | 65 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 246 | 327 | 368 | 695 | 122 | 267 | 13 | 8 | 314 | 94 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +11 | 1.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB CTX | BOS | 98% | 473 | 419 | 102 | 22 | 1 | 9 | 37 | 65 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 242 | 323 | 359 | 682 | 117 | 265 | 14 | 8 | 309 | 90 | -5 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +10 | 0.7 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB CTX | BOS | 98% | 457 | 406 | 95 | 20 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 65 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 237 | 318 | 347 | 665 | 111 | 261 | 14 | 8 | 302 | 86 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +10 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB CTX | BOS | 98% | 435 | 387 | 88 | 18 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 63 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 230 | 310 | 331 | 641 | 102 | 256 | 14 | 8 | 293 | 79 | -11 | -0 | -2 | +2 | +9 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3447 | 3040 | 742 | 157 | 4 | 68 | 264 | 453 | 107 | 86 | 26 | 244 | 326 | 365 | 692 | 121 | 266 | 13 | 8 | 312 | 93 | -25 | +7 | +1 | +13 | +75 | 7.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 573 | 141 | 30 | 1 | 13 | 50 | 85 | 20 | 16 | 5 | 246 | 328 | 370 | 698 | 124 | 267 | 13 | 8 | 312 | 93 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | 1.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5510 | 4863 | 1169 | 239 | 12 | 100 | 415 | 697 | 174 | 268 | 53 | 240 | 322 | 356 | 679 | 116 | 261 | 13 | 8 | 306 | 93 | -27 | +9 | +2 | +15 | +87 | 8.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 137 | 28 | 1 | 12 | 49 | 82 | 21 | 32 | 6 | 239 | 322 | 354 | 676 | 115 | 258 | 13 | 8 | 306 | 93 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | 1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAANashville Sounds · 58 PAwOBA .333 → .290 (−44)K% 8.6% → 10.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.62% | ÷1.010 | ×1.200 | — | — | 10.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 3.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.33% | ÷0.983 | ×0.930 | ×1.005 | ×1.033 | 16.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.20% | ÷0.973 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×1.033 | 9.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.005 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.08% | ÷1.111 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 2.66% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .333 → .290; ISO .204 → .157; BABIP .277 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 375 PAwOBA .375 → .329 (−46)K% 9.9% → 12.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.87% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 11.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.27% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 8.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.93% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 2.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.78% | ÷0.976 | ×0.930 | ×0.986 | ×1.048 | 19.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.42% | ÷1.072 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×1.048 | 6.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.73% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.986 | ×1.048 | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.66% | ÷1.045 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 2.57% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 95, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .375 → .329; ISO .184 → .149; BABIP .297 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AASomerset Patriots · 30 PAwOBA .250 → .213 (−37)K% 10.0% → 12.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 11.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.972 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 14.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.050 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.012 | 4.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷0.902 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 9.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.934 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 80, 3B 87, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .250 → .213; ISO .083 → .084; BABIP .143 → .136. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASomerset Patriots · 194 PAwOBA .349 → .320 (−30)K% 4.6% → 5.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 4.64% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 5.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.19% | ÷0.973 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.61% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 3.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.48% | ÷0.987 | ×0.970 | ×0.977 | ×1.027 | 20.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.23% | ÷0.958 | ×0.860 | ×0.977 | ×1.027 | 6.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.60% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.977 | ×1.027 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.41% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.87% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .349 → .320; ISO .149 → .129; BABIP .290 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 97 PAwOBA .391 → .318 (−74)K% 9.3% → 12.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.28% | ÷1.005 | ×1.310 | — | — | 12.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.43% | ÷1.092 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 7.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.15% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 3.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.43% | ÷1.004 | ×0.870 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 27.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.25% | ÷1.060 | ×0.780 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 5.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.034 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.006 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 101, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 101, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .391 → .318; ISO .064 → .052; BABIP .377 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAugusta GreenJackets · 333 PAwOBA .342 → .295 (−47)K% 10.5% → 13.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.51% | ÷1.050 | ×1.360 | — | — | 13.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.61% | ÷0.998 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.90% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 3.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.91% | ÷0.951 | ×0.920 | ×1.001 | — | 18.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.30% | ÷0.931 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | — | 5.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.42% | ÷0.976 | ×0.910 | ×1.001 | — | 0.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.94% | ÷1.127 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.09% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 90, 2B 86, 3B 95, K 110, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .342 → .295; ISO .139 → .115; BABIP .258 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Rome Braves · 124 PAwOBA .287 → .232 (−55)K% 12.1% → 16.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.10% | ÷0.970 | ×1.310 | — | — | 16.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.45% | ÷1.052 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 3.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.84% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 3.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.96% | ÷0.956 | ×0.870 | ×0.983 | ×1.012 | 14.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.45% | ÷0.984 | ×0.780 | ×0.983 | ×1.012 | 5.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.983 | ×1.012 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.06% | ÷0.928 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.02% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 91, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .287 → .232; ISO .110 → .091; BABIP .245 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Braves · 62 PAwOBA .291 → .221 (−70)K% 4.8% → 6.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 4.84% | ÷1.018 | ×1.440 | — | — | 6.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.06% | ÷1.019 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 4.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.61% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.42% | ÷1.035 | ×0.820 | ×1.013 | ×0.985 | 20.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.024 | ×0.720 | ×1.013 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.89% | ÷0.943 | ×0.720 | ×1.013 | ×0.985 | 1.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.053 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 107, 2B 105, 3B 89, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .291 → .221; ISO .036 → .028; BABIP .283 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .