Caleb Durbin — OGILVIE

Caleb Durbin3B Boston Red Sox

Age 26 R/R 5'6" / 183 lbs MLB H +3% Svc 0.953 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION317 act + 211 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 9797vR 99

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .311 / .389

PA211

HR5

SB8

K%13

BB%7

BABIP257

ISO147

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

903.1%

xwOBA

450.302

POWER40

Barrel%

143.6

Avg EV

1085.1

Bat Spd

2068.1

EYE55

Chase%

9016.8%

SPEED55

Sprint

6628.1

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 602 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

162

440

—

wRC+

100

▶▶R

wOBA

294

316

▶R

ISO

117

130

▶R

BABIP

221

264

▶▶R

7.4%

11.8%

◀◀L

BB%

6.2%

6.6%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.953 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$15M	+$14M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$12M	+$12M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+1.6	$10M	+$8M
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+1.3	$8M	+$4M
2031	Arb-3	$6M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$50M	+$40M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	ROK	FCL Braves	—	62	58	12	0	1	0	3	4	1	12	1	207	258	241	499	34	222	6	5	220	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	ROK	FCL Braves	—	62	56	15	0	1	0	5	3	1	12	1	268	339	304	642	36	283	5	8	299	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A	2 teams	—	457	401	93	21	2	6	31	67	19	31	5	232	317	339	656	107	260	15	7	289	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A	2 teams	—	457	382	92	22	2	8	50	50	19	31	5	241	357	372	729	131	255	11	11	331	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	3 teams	—	394	356	100	21	2	5	22	32	15	57	10	281	349	393	742	112	297	8	6	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	3 teams	—	394	338	107	26	2	7	40	25	15	57	10	317	412	467	880	151	326	6	10	394	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	3 teams	—	522	451	110	25	3	10	46	63	15	60	5	244	334	379	713	135	260	12	9	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	3 teams	—	522	427	121	30	3	15	70	46	15	60	5	283	402	473	875	190	285	9	13	384	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB	2 teams	—	564	500	130	30	0	13	32	56	24	21	8	260	335	398	733	138	269	10	6	323	105	+3	+1	+2	+2	+16	2.5
2025	25	MLB	2 teams	—	564	499	129	30	0	13	33	55	24	21	8	259	335	397	731	138	267	10	6	326	108	+5	+1	+2	+2	+16	2.7
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	MLB	BOS	—	317	285	65	18	1	9	22	44	5	10	3	228	295	393	688	165	239	14	7	299	87	-5	+1	+1	+1	+9	0.8
YTD	26	MLB	BOS	—	317	285	65	18	1	9	22	44	5	10	3	228	295	393	688	165	239	14	7	303	90	-4	+1	+1	+1	+9	0.9
ROS	26	MLB	BOS	100%	211	190	46	11	1	5	14	27	5	8	2	242	311	389	699	147	255	13	7	312	97	-1	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.7
ROS	26	MLB	BOS	100%	211	190	47	12	1	5	14	27	5	8	2	247	316	400	716	153	262	13	7	300	88	-3	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.5
FULL	26	MLB	BOS	—	528	475	112	30	2	14	36	71	10	18	5	236	303	396	699	160	249	13	7	300	88	-7	+2	+2	+2	+15	1.3
TOT	26	MLB	BOS	—	528	475	111	29	2	14	36	71	10	18	5	234	301	391	692	158	247	13	7	305	91	-5	+2	+2	+2	+15	1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	BOS	98%	557	500	120	30	1	14	38	72	14	20	5	240	312	388	700	148	254	13	7	312	97	-2	+2	+1	+2	+16	1.9
2028	28	MLB	BOS	98%	546	490	117	29	1	13	38	72	13	19	5	239	311	382	692	143	254	13	7	311	96	-2	+2	+0	+2	+15	1.7
2029	29	MLB	BOS	98%	535	480	114	28	1	13	37	71	13	17	4	237	309	381	691	144	253	13	7	309	95	-3	+2	-1	+2	+15	1.5
2030	30	MLB	BOS	98%	524	469	111	28	1	12	37	71	13	15	4	237	310	377	688	141	251	14	7	306	92	-5	+1	-1	+2	+15	1.3
2031	31	MLB	BOS	98%	514	461	108	27	1	12	36	71	12	13	3	234	306	375	682	141	248	14	7	301	89	-7	+1	-2	+2	+15	0.9
2032	32	MLB	BOS	98%	504	452	103	25	1	11	35	72	12	10	3	228	301	361	661	133	244	14	7	294	83	-10	+1	-3	+2	+14	0.5
2033	33	MLB	BOS	98%	434	391	86	20	1	9	30	64	10	7	2	220	292	345	638	125	238	15	7	285	76	-12	+1	-4	+2	+12	-0.1
2034	34	MLB	BOS	94%	368	332	69	16	0	7	25	57	8	4	1	208	279	319	599	111	231	15	7	274	68	-13	+0	-4	+1	+10	-0.6
2027	27	MLB	BOS	98%	546	491	120	31	1	13	37	71	13	20	5	244	314	391	705	147	261	13	7	300	88	-8	+2	+1	+2	+15	1.3
2028	28	MLB	BOS	98%	535	480	117	30	1	13	37	70	13	18	5	244	315	392	707	148	260	13	7	299	87	-8	+2	+0	+2	+15	1.1
2029	29	MLB	BOS	98%	524	469	114	29	1	13	37	70	13	17	4	243	316	392	708	149	259	13	7	297	85	-9	+2	-1	+2	+15	1.0
2030	30	MLB	BOS	98%	514	461	112	29	1	12	36	70	12	15	4	243	314	388	703	145	258	14	7	294	83	-10	+1	-1	+2	+15	0.7
2031	31	MLB	BOS	98%	504	452	107	28	1	11	35	70	12	13	3	237	309	376	685	139	255	14	7	289	80	-12	+1	-2	+2	+14	0.4
2032	32	MLB	BOS	98%	494	445	103	26	1	11	34	71	12	10	3	231	303	369	672	137	250	14	7	282	74	-14	+1	-3	+2	+14	-0.1
2033	33	MLB	BOS	98%	425	383	85	21	0	9	29	63	10	7	2	222	294	347	641	125	244	15	7	273	67	-16	+1	-3	+2	+12	-0.5
2034	34	MLB	BOS	94%	344	309	66	16	0	6	24	53	8	4	1	214	287	324	611	110	237	15	7	262	59	-16	+0	-4	+1	+10	-0.9
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4603	4125	985	247	7	104	313	615	122	130	35	239	311	378	689	139	257	13	7	293	83	-91	+12	-10	+17	+130	6.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	140	35	1	15	44	87	17	18	5	240	312	381	693	141	258	13	7	293	83	-13	+2	-1	+2	+18	0.8
Career	—			—	6192	5531	1319	311	16	130	424	799	174	294	58	238	313	371	684	133	256	13	7	304	91	-66	+36	-10	+22	+175	16.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	139	33	2	14	45	84	18	31	6	239	314	375	689	136	257	13	7	304	91	-7	+4	-1	+2	+18	1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	ROK	FCL Braves	—	62	56	15	0	1	0	5	3	1	12	1	268	339	304	642	36	283	5	8	299	87	-1	+2	—	—	+2	0.3
2022	22	A+	Rome Braves	—	124	109	24	7	1	1	8	15	6	3	2	220	309	330	639	110	245	12	6	292	82	-3	-0	—	—	+4	0.1
2022	22	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	333	273	68	15	1	7	42	35	13	28	3	249	375	388	763	139	258	11	13	345	123	+8	+4	—	—	+9	2.3
2023	23	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	194	175	51	12	1	4	12	9	7	21	7	291	361	440	801	149	290	5	6	359	133	+7	+1	—	—	+5	1.4
2023	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	97	78	26	5	0	0	14	9	5	15	1	333	464	397	861	64	377	9	14	401	165	+7	+3	—	—	+3	1.3
2023	23	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	103	85	30	9	1	3	14	7	3	21	2	353	461	588	1.049	235	355	7	14	454	206	+12	+3	—	—	+3	1.9
2024	24	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	375	310	89	23	2	10	47	37	11	29	3	287	399	471	870	184	297	10	13	382	151	+21	+5	—	—	+11	3.7
2024	24	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	30	24	3	2	0	0	6	3	0	2	1	125	300	208	508	83	143	10	20	255	54	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	24	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	117	93	29	5	1	5	17	6	4	29	1	312	439	548	987	237	282	5	15	423	182	+11	+5	—	—	+3	2.0
2025	25	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	506	445	114	25	0	11	30	50	24	18	6	256	337	387	723	130	265	10	6	324	106	+4	+1	+2	+2	+14	2.4
2025	25	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	58	54	15	5	0	2	3	5	0	3	2	278	316	481	797	204	277	9	5	343	121	+1	-0	—	—	+2	0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	506	445	114	25	0	11	30	50	24	18	6	256	337	387	723	130	265	10	6	324	106	+4	+1	+2	+2	+14	2.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kevin Pillarlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,353 PA	11	4,353	114	108	256	294	407	+9	+16	12.6	12.4
	/162	664	17	16	256	294	407	+1.4	+2.5	1.9	pk7: 12
#2Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	11	5,235	119	152	236	305	374	+19	+30	12.1	11.6
	/162	664	15	19	236	305	374	+2.4	+3.8	1.5	pk7: 11
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10
#5Manuel Margotlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,154 PA	8	3,154	56	94	254	307	380	-5	+27	8.4	8.8
	/162	664	12	20	254	307	380	-1.1	+5.6	1.8	pk7: 9
#6Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Caleb Durbin (OGILVIE)	26	55	40	55	55	234/301/391	158	247	14	18	13%	7%	91	+1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Nico Hoerner 2023 · MLB	26	56→62	43→45	55→60	50	270/326/385	115	298	10	19	13%	6%	102	+1.9	277/336/382	105	303	8	28	11%	7%	106	+2.2	280/340/376	96	305	7	31	10%	7%	103	+2.2
✕Chris Burke 2006 · MLB	26	49→56	43→45	53→55	48	239/300/361	122	277	10	21	18%	7%	85	+0.7	242/314/368	126	279	11	17	17%	7%	94	+1.3	234/315/353	119	269	11	17	16%	8%	85	+0.4
✕Shane Robinson 2012 · MLB	27	50→59	45	53→55	49	247/299/376	129	266	12	17	13%	6%	89	+1.0	248/312/354	106	285	9	13	16%	8%	89	+0.9	244/314/326	82	285	5	11	15%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Manuel Margot 2022 · MLB	27	50→53	46→50	51→60	52	249/310/381	132	280	13	21	17%	8%	95	+1.4	254/308/368	114	297	9	14	17%	7%	90	+1.0	253/306/356	103	299	7	12	17%	6%	84	+0.4
●Jerry Hairston Jr. 2002 · MLB	26	49→55	43→50	53→55	54	235/310/349	115	253	10	25	12%	8%	87	+0.8	256/327/364	108	281	7	25	11%	8%	98	+1.6	265/324/406	141	284	14	15	12%	7%	104	+1.5
✕Jose Aguilar 2016 · AAA	26	56→61	44→45	51→55	49	273/331/398	125	302	11	16	14%	6%	108	+2.3	250/304/361	111	291	11	19	17%	6%	88	+0.9	256/316/361	105	306	8	23	18%	6%	89	+0.6
✕José Peraza 2020 · MLB	26	54→64	43→45	50→65	46	260/302/368	108	285	10	17	13%	4%	88	+0.9	230/280/354	124	253	12	10	15%	5%	76	+0.0	201/252/316	115	217	12	6	14%	4%	52	-0.5
★Edgar Renteria 2002 · MLB	26	53→63	46→45	50→55	54	260/322/387	127	280	13	18	13%	8%	102	+1.8	293/352/425	132	315	12	21	11%	8%	124	+3.4	294/357/422	128	332	11	12	14%	9%	122	+3.5
✕Fernando Rios 2006 · AAA	27	55	45→40	55→50	48	270/316/393	123	282	13	15	10%	5%	101	+1.8	251/304/351	100	287	8	13	15%	6%	85	+0.7	246/304/323	77	286	4	8	15%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Tommy Edman 2022 · MLB	27	53→57	46→50	56→55	47	262/311/399	137	295	12	21	16%	6%	100	+1.7	255/313/397	142	291	14	26	17%	7%	100	+1.7	252/313/396	144	288	15	29	18%	7%	98	+1.2
●Eric Sogard 2013 · MLB	27	53→57	43→45	52→55	51	255/310/368	113	281	10	17	14%	7%	92	+1.2	247/305/336	89	279	6	16	13%	7%	80	+0.4	250/336/373	123	285	11	10	15%	11%	100	+1.1
✕Carlos Febles 2002 · MLB	26	50→52	43→40	50→55	52	241/310/347	106	273	11	16	16%	8%	86	+0.8	239/313/333	94	277	8	19	16%	8%	84	+0.6	237/318/311	74	278	4	23	15%	9%	78	+0.1
●Austin Barnes 2017 · MLB	27	51→55	45→50	55→50	50	247/310/378	131	284	12	17	18%	8%	94	+1.3	242/334/385	143	295	14	12	21%	11%	107	+2.2	233/342/385	152	286	16	8	23%	12%	104	+0.9
✕Kevin Newman 2020 · MLB	26	57→62	42→45	50	47	274/316/382	108	304	9	18	13%	5%	97	+1.5	253/297/349	96	278	7	11	12%	6%	80	+0.4	261/308/353	92	306	5	15	16%	6%	84	+0.3
✕Carlos Sosa 2007 · AAA	26	48	44→45	53→50	47	233/298/348	115	273	11	15	19%	6%	82	+0.5	242/303/347	105	273	10	13	15%	7%	83	+0.6	253/317/358	105	275	9	13	11%	7%	89	+0.5
✕Luis Rivas 2005 · MLB	25	51→55	47→50	58→55	47	251/293/397	146	274	13	20	14%	5%	92	+1.2	232/274/343	111	262	10	14	15%	5%	69	-0.4	223/278/325	101	251	9	11	15%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Christian Colón 2015 · MLB	26	52→56	42→45	51→55	48	250/294/349	99	272	10	16	12%	5%	79	+0.3	250/299/330	80	290	6	14	15%	6%	76	+0.1	245/300/345	100	278	8	18	14%	6%	79	+0.2
✕Peter Bourjos 2013 · MLB	26	49→56	47→50	57→60	44	243/298/388	145	297	13	20	23%	6%	92	+1.2	232/297/356	124	303	11	15	26%	7%	83	+0.6	240/282/379	139	307	10	8	24%	5%	78	+0.1
●Rolando Acosta 2009 · AAA	26	49→59	48→50	53→45	45	247/299/387	140	291	16	23	21%	6%	92	+1.2	260/302/380	120	301	10	15	17%	5%	91	+1.1	284/331/408	124	327	14	8	17%	5%	106	+1.1
●Cameron Maybin 2014 · MLB	27	49→59	46→50	57→55	50	243/308/374	131	289	13	28	20%	8%	92	+1.2	252/314/365	113	305	10	18	19%	8%	92	+1.2	259/332/373	114	311	10	30	19%	9%	99	+1.4