Caleb Durbin — OGILVIE

Caleb Durbin3B Boston Red Sox

Age 26 R/R 5'6" / 183 lbs MLB HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.953 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION538 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 10099vR 94

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%11

BB%11

BABIP271

ISO130

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$37M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

902.4%

xAVG

410.244

POWER40

Barrel%

123.3

Avg EV

1084.3

Bat Spd

2068.1

EYE55

Chase%

9013.2%

SPEED55

Sprint

6027.9

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%13%▼14% over 107 PA (30d) · proj 12%

BB%10%▲▲12% over 168 PA (45d) · proj 7%

ISO.100▼.075 over 186 AB (60d) · proj .130xISO .081 vs .107 prior — approach backs the move

HR/BB2.3%·1.9% over 157 BBE (60d) · proj 2.8%barrel% 2.7% vs 4.0% prior

BABIP.278▲.318 over 154 BIP (60d) · proj .270xBABIP .246 vs .302 prior — approach does NOT back the move

SLASH.251/.346/.352·proj .253/.326/.383

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 602 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

162

440

—

wRC+

100

▶▶R

wOBA

294

316

▶R

ISO

117

130

▶R

BABIP

221

264

▶▶R

7.4%

11.8%

◀◀L

BB%

6.2%

6.6%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.953 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.4M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$13M	+$13M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$11M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+1.5	$10M	+$6M
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+1.2	$7M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$8M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$12M		$44M	+$33M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	21	ROK	FCL Braves	—	62	56	15	0	1	0	5	3	1	12	1	268	339	304	642	36	283	5	8	299	88	-1	+2	—	—	+1	0.3
2022	22	A+	Rome Braves	—	124	109	24	7	1	1	8	15	6	3	2	220	309	330	639	110	245	12	6	292	84	-2	-0	—	—	+3	0.0
2022	22	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	333	273	68	15	1	7	42	35	13	28	3	249	375	388	763	139	258	11	13	345	120	+8	+4	—	—	+7	2.0
2023	23	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	194	175	51	12	1	4	12	9	7	21	7	291	361	440	801	149	290	5	6	359	129	+7	+1	—	—	+4	1.3
2023	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	97	78	26	5	0	0	14	9	5	15	1	333	464	397	861	64	377	9	14	401	157	+7	+3	—	—	+2	1.2
2023	23	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	103	85	30	9	1	3	14	7	3	21	2	353	461	588	1.049	235	355	7	14	454	193	+11	+3	—	—	+2	1.7
2024	24	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	375	310	89	23	2	10	47	37	11	29	3	287	399	471	870	184	297	10	13	382	145	+20	+5	—	—	+8	3.3
2024	24	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	30	24	3	2	0	0	6	3	0	2	1	125	300	208	508	83	143	10	20	255	59	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	24	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	117	93	29	5	1	5	17	6	4	29	1	312	439	548	987	237	282	5	15	423	173	+10	+5	—	—	+3	1.8
2025	25	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	506	445	114	25	0	11	30	50	24	18	6	256	337	387	723	130	265	10	6	324	106	+3	+1	+2	+2	+11	2.0
2025	25	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	58	54	15	5	0	2	3	5	0	3	2	278	316	481	797	204	277	9	5	343	119	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	506	445	114	25	0	11	30	50	24	18	6	256	337	387	723	130	265	10	6	324	106	+3	+1	+2	+2	+11	2.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	62	58	12	0	1	0	3	4	1	12	1	207	258	241	499	34	227	6	5	225	38	-5	+2	—	—	+1	-0.1
2022	22	A+ MLE	Rome Braves	—	124	112	22	6	1	1	5	21	6	3	2	196	268	295	563	98	220	17	4	239	48	-8	-0	—	—	+3	-0.5
2022	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	333	288	67	14	1	6	27	47	13	28	3	233	326	351	677	118	248	14	8	298	88	-5	+4	—	—	+7	0.7
2023	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	194	178	47	11	1	3	9	11	7	21	7	264	325	388	712	124	266	6	5	307	94	-1	+1	—	—	+4	0.4
2023	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	97	84	25	4	0	0	8	12	5	15	1	298	392	345	737	48	347	12	8	333	112	+1	+3	—	—	+2	0.6
2024	24	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	375	326	82	19	2	7	32	45	11	29	3	252	340	387	726	135	261	12	9	315	99	-0	+5	—	—	+8	1.3
2024	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	30	26	3	2	0	0	4	4	0	2	1	115	233	192	426	77	134	13	13	210	28	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	506	445	113	25	0	10	30	50	24	18	6	254	335	378	712	124	265	10	6	321	103	+2	+1	+2	+2	+11	1.9
2025	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	58	55	13	4	0	1	2	6	0	3	2	236	263	364	627	127	249	10	3	281	76	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	62	58	12	0	1	0	3	4	1	12	1	207	258	241	499	34	222	6	5	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	—	62	56	15	0	1	0	5	3	1	12	1	268	339	304	642	36	283	5	8	299	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	457	400	90	20	2	7	32	68	19	31	5	225	313	338	650	113	251	15	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	457	382	92	22	2	8	50	50	19	31	5	241	357	372	729	131	255	11	11	331	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	394	355	97	20	1	4	23	31	15	57	10	273	344	369	713	96	290	8	6	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	394	338	107	26	2	7	40	25	15	57	10	317	412	467	880	151	326	6	10	394	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	522	451	109	27	3	9	46	63	15	60	5	242	332	375	707	133	260	12	9	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	522	427	121	30	3	15	70	46	15	60	5	283	402	473	875	190	285	9	13	384	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	564	500	128	30	0	12	32	56	24	21	8	256	331	388	719	132	266	10	6	316	100	+0	+1	+2	+2	+12	1.8
2025	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	564	499	129	30	0	13	33	55	24	21	8	259	335	397	731	138	267	10	6	326	100	+0	+1	+2	+2	+12	1.8
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	62	58	12	0	1	0	3	4	1	12	1	207	258	241	499	34	227	6	5	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	457	403	90	20	2	7	32	68	19	31	5	223	313	335	648	112	240	15	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	394	353	97	20	1	4	23	31	15	57	10	275	344	371	715	96	293	8	6	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	522	456	109	27	3	9	46	63	15	60	5	239	332	371	703	132	252	12	9	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	564	503	128	30	0	12	32	56	24	21	8	254	331	386	717	131	264	10	6	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	394	353	97	20	1	4	23	31	15	57	10	275	344	371	715	96	293	8	6	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	522	456	109	27	3	9	46	63	15	60	5	239	332	371	703	132	252	12	9	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	564	503	128	30	0	12	32	56	24	21	8	254	331	386	717	131	264	10	6	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	BOS	—	538	471	115	22	1	12	45	75	12	17	5	244	326	372	697	127	265	14	8	307	94	-4	+1	+1	+2	+12	1.3
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	BOS	—	538	471	117	23	1	12	45	75	12	17	5	248	330	378	707	130	271	14	8	315	94	-4	+1	+1	+2	+12	1.3
YTD	26	MLB RAW	BOS	—	538	471	117	23	1	12	45	75	12	17	5	248	330	378	707	130	271	14	8	315	100	-0	+1	+1	+2	+12	1.6
ROS	26	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		265	11	11	315	99	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		271	11	11	300	99	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	26	MLB A+C	BOS	—	547	479	118	23	1	12	46	76	12	17	5	246	328	374	701	127	268	14	8	315	94	-4	+1	+1	+2	+12	1.3
TOT	26	MLB MLE	BOS	—	547	479	116	22	1	12	46	76	12	17	5	242	324	367	691	125	263	14	8	307	94	-4	+1	+1	+2	+12	1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	574	509	126	25	1	13	45	76	15	20	5	248	327	377	704	130	265	13	8	316	100	-0	+2	+2	+2	+12	1.8
2028	28	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	562	498	122	24	1	12	45	75	14	18	5	245	325	369	694	124	264	13	8	315	99	-1	+2	+1	+2	+12	1.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	551	488	119	23	1	12	44	75	14	17	4	244	324	369	693	125	264	14	8	313	98	-2	+2	+0	+2	+12	1.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	540	478	116	23	1	11	43	75	14	15	4	243	323	364	687	121	262	14	8	309	96	-3	+1	-1	+2	+12	1.2
2031	31	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	529	468	112	22	1	11	43	75	13	13	3	239	321	361	682	122	259	14	8	305	92	-5	+1	-1	+2	+11	0.9
2032	32	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	435	386	89	17	0	8	35	63	11	9	2	231	312	337	649	106	255	14	8	298	88	-6	+1	-2	+2	+9	0.3
2033	33	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	405	360	80	15	0	7	32	61	10	6	2	222	303	322	626	100	250	15	8	289	82	-9	+0	-3	+1	+9	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	574	509	127	26	1	12	45	76	15	20	5	250	329	375	704	126	271	13	8	301	100	-0	+2	+2	+2	+12	1.8
2028	28	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	562	498	125	26	1	12	45	75	14	18	5	251	330	380	710	129	270	13	8	300	99	-1	+2	+1	+2	+12	1.6
2029	29	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	551	488	122	25	1	12	44	75	14	17	4	250	330	379	709	129	270	14	8	298	98	-2	+2	+0	+2	+12	1.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	540	478	118	24	1	11	43	75	14	15	4	247	327	370	697	123	268	14	8	295	96	-3	+1	-1	+2	+12	1.2
2031	31	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	529	468	112	23	0	10	43	75	13	13	3	239	321	353	673	113	265	14	8	290	92	-5	+1	-1	+2	+11	0.9
2032	32	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	435	386	91	18	0	8	35	63	11	9	2	236	317	345	662	109	261	14	8	283	88	-6	+1	-2	+2	+9	0.3
2033	33	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	405	360	82	16	0	7	32	61	10	6	2	228	308	331	639	103	255	15	8	275	82	-9	+0	-3	+1	+9	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4111	3640	892	183	4	83	318	551	115	116	31	245	325	366	691	121	267	13	8	297	93	-22	+11	-2	+15	+89	9.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	141	29	1	13	50	87	18	18	5	245	325	366	691	122	267	13	8	297	93	-3	+2	-0	+2	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	5604	4959	1201	246	12	106	424	723	165	279	54	242	323	361	683	119	263	13	8	306	93	-22	+11	-2	+15	+89	9.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	139	29	1	12	49	84	19	32	6	242	321	358	680	117	263	13	8	306	93	-3	+2	-0	+2	+14	1.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	8.8	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
/162	664	19	34	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#2Kolten Wonglast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,283 PA	6.5	4,283	86	120	256	330	390	+15	+21	18.4	17.8
/162	664	13	19	+2.4	+3.2	2.8	pk7: 17
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	7.9	5,217	110	154	244	320	367	+19	+27	15.1	14.2
/162	664	14	20	+2.4	+3.5	1.9	pk7: 13
#3Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#4Leonys Martinlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,784 PA	4.2	2,784	58	126	243	301	366	+10	+53	10.7	10.8
/162	664	14	30	+2.4	+12.6	2.5	pk7: 11
#5Manuel Margotlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,154 PA	4.8	3,154	56	94	254	307	380	-5	+27	8.4	8.8
/162	664	12	20	-1.1	+5.6	1.8	pk7: 9
#6Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Caleb Durbin (OGILVIE)	26	55	40	55	55	244/322/370	126	265	13	20	13%	8%	99	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Nico Hoerner 2023 · MLB	26	56→62	43→45	55→60	50	271/327/387	116	298	10	19	13%	6%	103	+1.5	278/337/385	107	304	9	28	11%	7%	106	+1.8	281/341/379	98	305	7	31	10%	7%	104	+1.8
✕Chris Burke 2006 · MLB	26	49→56	43→45	53→55	48	239/301/361	122	277	10	21	18%	7%	88	+0.4	242/314/368	126	279	11	17	17%	7%	95	+0.9	234/315/353	119	269	11	17	16%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Ke'Bryan Hayes 2023 · MLB	26	52→55	44→50	53→50	50	253/318/376	123	313	11	17	22%	8%	97	+1.1	251/302/373	122	303	12	14	20%	7%	91	+0.6	247/295/355	108	296	10	13	19%	6%	81	-0.1
●Edgar Renteria 2002 · MLB	26	53→63	46→45	50→55	54	260/322/387	127	280	13	18	13%	8%	101	+1.4	293/352/425	132	315	12	21	11%	8%	121	+2.9	294/357/422	128	332	11	12	14%	9%	120	+2.9
✕Manuel Margot 2022 · MLB	27	51→52	46→50	51→60	52	249/310/378	129	281	13	21	17%	8%	95	+0.9	255/309/368	113	299	9	14	17%	7%	92	+0.7	255/307/357	102	301	7	12	17%	6%	86	+0.2
✕Collin Cowgill 2012 · MLB	26	54→59	45→50	57→55	48	264/321/396	132	314	12	24	20%	7%	103	+1.5	244/301/361	117	306	11	16	23%	7%	87	+0.4	235/297/355	120	296	13	9	24%	7%	82	+0.0
●Jerry Hairston Jr. 2002 · MLB	26	49→55	43→50	53→55	54	235/310/349	115	253	10	25	12%	8%	88	+0.5	256/327/364	108	281	7	25	11%	8%	98	+1.2	263/322/399	137	282	13	15	12%	7%	102	+1.0
✕Tommy Edman 2022 · MLB	27	53→57	46→50	56→55	47	263/312/403	140	294	13	21	16%	6%	101	+1.4	256/314/401	145	291	14	26	17%	7%	101	+1.4	253/314/400	147	288	15	29	17%	7%	100	+1.0
✕Jose Aguilar 2016 · AAA	26	57→61	42→45	51→55	49	272/330/383	111	304	8	16	14%	6%	103	+1.6	249/304/350	101	292	8	19	17%	6%	86	+0.3	253/312/346	93	304	6	23	18%	6%	86	+0.2
✕José Peraza 2020 · MLB	26	54→64	42→45	50→65	46	261/303/369	108	287	10	17	13%	4%	90	+0.6	232/282/354	122	256	12	10	15%	5%	79	-0.2	204/254/316	112	223	11	6	15%	4%	59	-0.5
●Ha-Seong Kim 2023 · MLB	27	49→53	46→50	53→60	51	240/311/377	137	280	13	12	19%	8%	95	+1.0	245/331/377	132	286	14	25	18%	11%	103	+1.5	240/333/364	124	279	14	31	18%	12%	98	+0.9
✕Kevin Newman 2020 · MLB	26	56→62	42→45	50	47	273/314/382	109	303	9	18	13%	5%	97	+1.1	252/297/351	99	277	8	11	12%	6%	83	+0.1	262/309/356	93	308	5	15	16%	6%	87	+0.2
✕Matt Duffy 2018 · MLB	27	54→64	44→45	50	48	265/315/387	122	298	11	12	16%	6%	99	+1.2	268/340/361	93	318	7	10	17%	9%	102	+1.5	279/353/362	83	336	6	11	17%	9%	105	+1.1
●Austin Barnes 2017 · MLB	27	51→56	44→50	55→50	51	247/313/371	123	285	10	17	17%	8%	95	+0.9	240/335/378	138	294	13	12	21%	11%	105	+1.7	229/340/376	147	284	15	8	23%	12%	102	+0.7
●Kolten Wong 2017 · MLB	26	52→61	47→50	55	50	255/323/393	138	284	14	15	16%	7%	103	+1.6	265/347/405	140	300	12	14	15%	9%	115	+2.4	271/355/410	138	308	11	16	15%	9%	112	+1.7
●Angel Berroa 2003 · MLB	26	50→56	42→50	56→50	52	241/307/356	115	277	8	16	16%	8%	88	+0.5	267/316/404	137	303	13	15	16%	5%	103	+1.5	267/312/394	127	304	12	14	16%	4%	96	+1.1
✕Carlos Febles 2002 · MLB	26	50→52	43→40	50→55	52	241/310/347	106	272	11	16	16%	8%	88	+0.4	239/313/333	94	277	8	19	16%	8%	86	+0.3	237/318/311	74	278	4	23	15%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Peter Bourjos 2013 · MLB	26	50→55	46→50	57→60	44	244/299/387	143	299	12	20	22%	6%	93	+0.8	232/298/357	125	303	11	15	26%	7%	86	+0.3	237/279/373	137	305	9	8	25%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Shane Robinson 2012 · MLB	27	50→59	44→45	53→55	49	243/297/368	124	263	11	17	13%	6%	87	+0.4	247/313/352	105	284	9	13	16%	8%	90	+0.6	244/315/326	82	285	6	11	15%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Christian Colón 2015 · MLB	26	53→57	42→45	51→55	49	253/299/352	98	273	10	16	12%	6%	84	+0.2	250/301/329	79	290	6	14	15%	6%	80	-0.2	245/303/339	94	279	7	18	14%	6%	81	-0.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps