Caleb Durbin — OGILVIE

Caleb Durbin3B Boston Red Sox

Age 26 R/R 5'6" / 183 lbs MLB Svc 0.953 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.6 · 2027

wRC+†vL 7680vR 77

AVG/OBP/SLG.258 / .333 / .388

PA504

HR10

SB14

K%10

BB%6

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

40→40

SPD

55→55

EYE

46↗55

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.3peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.953 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$13M	+$12M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$13M	+$12M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+1.3	$11M	+$9M
2030	Arb-2	$4M	+1.0	$9M	+$5M
2031	Arb-3	$4M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$13M		$53M	+$40M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	ROK	FCL Braves	62	58	12	0	1	0	3	4	1	12	1	.207	.258	.241	.499	.034	.222	6	5	.220	27	-5	+2	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2022	22	A	2 teams	457	401	86	19	1	7	31	68	19	31	5	.214	.302	.319	.621	.105	.238	15	7	.277	70	-16	+4	+0	+2	+13	0.3
2023	23	AA	3 teams	394	356	98	20	1	5	22	31	15	57	10	.275	.344	.379	.723	.104	.290	8	6	.317	101	+0	+7	+0	+1	+11	2.1
2024	24	AAA	3 teams	522	451	111	27	3	11	46	62	15	60	5	.246	.336	.392	.728	.146	.260	12	9	.316	100	+0	+10	+0	+2	+15	2.7
2025	25	MLB	2 teams	564	500	131	30	0	12	32	56	24	21	8	.262	.336	.394	.730	.132	.273	10	6	.317	101	+1	+1	+2	+2	+16	2.2
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	87	78	11	5	0	0	7	13	2	0	1	.141	.230	.205	.435	.064	.169	15	8	.207	17	-8	-0	+1	+0	+2	-0.4
ROS	26	MLB	BOS	417	372	88	21	1	7	28	46	14	14	4	.237	.314	.355	.669	.118	.254	11	7	.307	93	-3	+1	+2	+1	+12	1.3
TOT	26	MLB	BOS	504	450	99	26	1	7	35	59	16	14	5	.220	.299	.329	.628	.109	.238	12	7	.290	80	-11	+1	+3	+2	+14	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	27	MLB	BOS	499	445	107	26	1	9	34	42	17	17	5	.240	.319	.364	.683	.124	.245	8	7	.307	93	-4	+1	+2	+2	+14	1.6
2028	28	MLB	BOS	491	437	104	25	1	9	34	42	17	16	4	.238	.318	.362	.679	.124	.245	9	7	.306	92	-4	+2	+1	+2	+14	1.5
2029	29	MLB	BOS	479	426	100	24	1	8	34	43	16	14	4	.235	.315	.352	.667	.117	.244	9	7	.304	91	-5	+1	+1	+2	+14	1.2
2030	30	MLB	BOS	467	415	97	23	1	8	33	43	16	13	3	.234	.315	.352	.666	.118	.243	9	7	.301	88	-6	+1	-0	+2	+13	1.0
2031	31	MLB	BOS	452	402	93	22	1	7	32	44	15	10	3	.231	.312	.343	.655	.112	.241	10	7	.297	85	-7	+1	-1	+2	+13	0.7
2032	32	MLB	BOS	433	386	87	21	0	6	30	44	14	8	2	.225	.305	.326	.631	.101	.240	10	7	.292	81	-9	+1	-2	+2	+12	0.4
2033	33	MLB	BOS	403	359	79	19	0	5	28	44	13	6	1	.220	.300	.315	.615	.095	.238	11	7	.286	77	-11	+1	-3	+1	+11	0.1
2034	34	MLB	BOS	358	318	68	16	0	4	25	42	12	4	1	.214	.296	.302	.598	.088	.235	12	7	.279	72	-12	+0	-3	+1	+10	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5998	5326	1261	293	12	98	412	611	208	283	56	.237	.316	.351	.668	.115	.250	10	7	.300	88	-81	+34	-1	+21	+170	14.7
/ 162G	—			650	577	137	32	1	11	45	66	23	31	6	.237	.318	.354	.672	.116	.250	10	7	.300	88	-9	+4	-0	+2	+18	1.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	ROK	FCL Braves	62	56	15	0	1	0	5	3	1	12	1	.268	.339	.304	.642	.036	.283	5	8	.299	87	-1	+2	—	—	+2	0.3
2022	22	A+	Rome Braves	124	109	24	7	1	1	8	15	6	3	2	.220	.309	.330	.639	.110	.245	12	6	.292	82	-3	-0	—	—	+4	0.1
2022	22	A	Augusta GreenJackets	333	273	68	15	1	7	42	35	13	28	3	.249	.375	.388	.763	.139	.258	11	13	.345	123	+8	+4	—	—	+9	2.3
2023	23	AA	Somerset Patriots	194	175	51	12	1	4	12	9	7	21	7	.291	.361	.440	.801	.149	.290	5	6	.359	133	+7	+1	—	—	+5	1.4
2023	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	97	78	26	5	0	0	14	9	5	15	1	.333	.464	.397	.861	.064	.377	9	14	.401	165	+7	+3	—	—	+3	1.3
2023	23	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	103	85	30	9	1	3	14	7	3	21	2	.353	.461	.588	1.049	.235	.355	7	14	.454	206	+12	+3	—	—	+3	1.9
2024	24	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	375	310	89	23	2	10	47	37	11	29	3	.287	.399	.471	.870	.184	.297	10	13	.382	151	+21	+5	—	—	+11	3.7
2024	24	AA	Somerset Patriots	30	24	3	2	0	0	6	3	0	2	1	.125	.300	.208	.508	.083	.143	10	20	.255	54	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	24	INTL	Salt River Rafters	117	93	29	5	1	5	17	6	4	29	1	.312	.439	.548	.987	.237	.282	5	15	.423	182	+11	+5	—	—	+3	2.0
2025	25	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	506	445	114	25	0	11	30	50	24	18	6	.256	.337	.387	.723	.130	.265	10	6	.324	106	+4	+1	+2	+2	+14	2.4
2025	25	AAA	Nashville Sounds	58	54	15	5	0	2	3	5	0	3	2	.278	.316	.481	.797	.204	.277	9	5	.343	121	+1	-0	—	—	+2	0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			506	445	114	25	0	11	30	50	24	18	6	.256	.337	.387	.723	.130	.265	10	6	.324	106	+4	+1	+2	+2	+14	2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Caleb Durbin (OGILVIE)	26	55	40	55	55	.237/.315/.358	.121	.245	9	17	8%	7%	93	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Nico Hoerner 2023 · MLB	26	54→62	43→45	54→60	50	.261/.320/.374	.113	.289	10	19	13%	7%	97	+1.5	.280/.338/.388	.108	.307	9	28	11%	7%	108	+2.3	.286/.346/.385	.099	.311	7	31	10%	7%	108	+2.5
✕Chris Burke 2006 · MLB	26	49→56	44→45	53→55	48	.238/.300/.360	.122	.276	10	20	18%	7%	85	+0.7	.243/.314/.370	.127	.281	11	17	17%	7%	95	+1.4	.234/.315/.353	.119	.269	11	17	16%	8%	85	+0.4
●Jerry Hairston Jr. 2002 · MLB	26	49→55	43→50	53→55	54	.235/.311/.351	.116	.254	10	24	12%	8%	89	+0.9	.254/.325/.363	.109	.279	8	25	11%	8%	97	+1.5	.263/.322/.403	.140	.282	14	15	12%	7%	102	+1.4
✕José Peraza 2020 · MLB	26	54→64	42→45	50→65	46	.262/.304/.363	.101	.288	9	18	13%	4%	87	+0.8	.235/.285/.358	.123	.259	12	10	15%	5%	79	+0.3	.205/.255/.322	.117	.222	12	6	15%	4%	55	-0.4
✕Christian Colón 2015 · MLB	26	52→57	42→45	51→55	49	.252/.298/.349	.098	.272	10	16	12%	6%	81	+0.4	.249/.298/.328	.079	.287	6	14	15%	6%	76	+0.0	.236/.299/.352	.116	.258	11	15	13%	7%	81	+0.3
✕Jose Aguilar 2016 · AAA	26	56→60	42→45	50→55	48	.272/.328/.381	.110	.304	9	16	14%	6%	102	+1.9	.250/.305/.356	.106	.290	9	19	16%	6%	86	+0.8	.254/.313/.352	.098	.303	7	23	18%	6%	86	+0.4
●Angel Berroa 2003 · MLB	26	50→56	42→50	55→50	52	.242/.307/.358	.115	.278	8	15	16%	8%	88	+0.9	.267/.316/.405	.138	.303	13	16	16%	5%	104	+2.0	.267/.312/.394	.127	.304	12	14	16%	4%	96	+1.5
✕Shane Robinson 2012 · MLB	27	49→59	44→45	53→55	48	.238/.289/.357	.120	.258	11	17	13%	6%	80	+0.4	.245/.309/.351	.106	.281	9	14	16%	8%	86	+0.8	.240/.311/.318	.078	.280	6	11	15%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Brendan Ryan 2008 · MLB	26	53→61	39→40	54→55	48	.250/.296/.336	.086	.282	6	19	14%	6%	76	+0.1	.248/.298/.337	.089	.287	6	17	15%	6%	78	+0.2	.247/.305/.329	.082	.288	3	16	14%	6%	72	-0.2
✕Luis Rivas 2006 · MLB	26	50→55	45→50	56→55	47	.244/.285/.372	.128	.267	11	18	14%	5%	82	+0.5	.228/.271/.333	.105	.260	10	12	16%	5%	66	-0.6	.223/.278/.325	.102	.251	9	11	15%	6%	64	-0.4
●Elvis Andrus 2016 · MLB	27	53→59	38→50	52→60	51	.252/.306/.335	.083	.284	5	25	13%	7%	81	+0.4	.265/.319/.390	.125	.296	10	20	14%	7%	101	+1.8	.269/.322/.402	.134	.299	12	19	14%	7%	97	+1.5
●Andrelton Simmons 2018 · MLB	28	57→61	42→45	50	53	.271/.323/.381	.110	.287	9	13	10%	7%	100	+1.7	.279/.327/.397	.118	.295	11	13	9%	6%	106	+2.2	.285/.331/.390	.106	.300	9	11	8%	6%	101	+1.2
✕Nick Madrigal 2022 · MLB	25	57	39→40	49→50	51	.269/.317/.357	.088	.281	5	16	7%	5%	91	+1.1	.258/.311/.340	.082	.286	4	10	11%	5%	84	+0.6	.263/.318/.341	.077	.292	3	12	10%	5%	85	+0.4
✕Fernando Rios 2006 · AAA	27	54	45→40	55→50	48	.267/.313/.391	.124	.280	13	15	11%	5%	99	+1.7	.253/.305/.355	.102	.288	9	13	15%	6%	85	+0.7	.252/.309/.323	.070	.285	4	6	13%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Carlos Febles 2002 · MLB	26	50→52	42→40	50→55	52	.242/.312/.346	.104	.273	10	16	16%	8%	87	+0.8	.239/.314/.336	.097	.277	8	19	16%	8%	85	+0.7	.237/.318/.311	.074	.278	4	23	15%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Kevin Newman 2020 · MLB	26	56→63	41→45	50	46	.269/.309/.372	.103	.300	8	17	14%	5%	92	+1.2	.253/.298/.349	.096	.278	8	12	12%	6%	81	+0.4	.261/.308/.353	.092	.307	5	15	16%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Chris Getz 2010 · MLB	26	54→56	41→40	56→60	51	.259/.315/.358	.100	.289	8	22	14%	7%	91	+1.1	.243/.301/.312	.069	.274	3	27	12%	7%	72	-0.2	.241/.288/.304	.063	.269	2	31	10%	6%	60	-0.4
✕David Fletcher 2020 · MLB	26	57→62	40→45	50	50	.271/.319/.370	.098	.298	6	11	11%	6%	95	+1.4	.271/.317/.359	.088	.297	5	10	10%	6%	91	+1.1	.259/.299/.329	.069	.283	3	10	9%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Chin-Lung Hu 2010 · MLB	26	54→61	41→45	51→50	44	.258/.290/.363	.104	.288	8	12	14%	4%	81	+0.4	.232/.264/.314	.082	.270	6	14	16%	4%	57	-1.2	.215/.241/.275	.060	.253	4	16	17%	3%	35	-0.8
✕Alcides Escobar 2013 · MLB	26	54→63	39→45	59→55	46	.257/.299/.353	.096	.292	5	24	14%	5%	82	+0.5	.257/.290/.338	.081	.293	5	23	14%	4%	74	-0.1	.245/.290/.359	.114	.297	9	6	20%	5%	78	+0.1

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)