Jacob Kisting — OGILVIE

Jacob Kisting P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.5 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.40

FIP4.40

K%20.1%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.5	$1M	+$1M
2033	Arb-2	$5M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	5	74	300	77	23	3	17%	2.5	19.4%	8.9%	10.5%	1.3%	3.79	3.33	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	5	74	300	77	23	3	17%	2.5	19.4%	8.9%	10.5%	1.3%	3.79	3.33	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	5	74	300	77	23	3	17%	2.5	25.7%	7.7%	18.0%	1.0%	3.79	2.48	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	23	21	110	436	127	25	7	91%	4.8	22.7%	6.5%	16.2%	2.0%	1.72	3.10	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	23	21	110	436	127	25	7	91%	4.8	22.7%	6.5%	16.2%	2.0%	1.72	3.10	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	MIA	18	16	86	337	96	18	6	89%	4.8	28.5%	5.3%	23.1%	1.8%	1.67	2.35	—
2026	23	AA RAW	MIA	5	5	24	99	31	7	1	100%	4.8	31.3%	7.1%	24.2%	1.0%	1.88	1.91	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	110	466	98	40	13	100%	6.5	21.0%	8.5%	12.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.28	+0.8
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	112	472	101	39	13	100%	6.6	21.4%	8.3%	13.1%	2.7%	4.26	4.22	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	112	472	102	39	13	100%	6.6	21.7%	8.3%	13.4%	2.7%	4.23	4.20	+0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	110	465	101	39	13	100%	6.5	21.7%	8.3%	13.3%	2.8%	4.24	4.24	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	107	451	97	38	13	100%	6.7	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.9%	4.29	4.32	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	102	431	92	38	13	100%	6.8	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	3.0%	4.39	4.45	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	96	405	85	37	13	100%	6.4	21.0%	9.0%	11.9%	3.2%	4.54	4.63	+0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIA	7	7	47	198	42	17	5	100%	6.7	21.0%	8.5%	12.4%	2.6%	4.25	4.21	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	74	312	67	26	8	100%	6.7	21.4%	8.3%	13.1%	2.6%	4.19	4.15	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	89	376	81	31	10	100%	6.8	21.7%	8.3%	13.4%	2.6%	4.15	4.12	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	94	397	86	33	11	100%	6.7	21.7%	8.3%	13.3%	2.7%	4.16	4.16	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	95	401	86	34	11	100%	6.8	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.7%	4.21	4.24	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	93	393	84	34	11	100%	6.6	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	2.9%	4.31	4.37	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	88	372	78	34	11	100%	6.8	21.0%	9.0%	11.9%	3.1%	4.45	4.54	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		88	88	580	2451	524	209	67	100%	6.6	21.4%	8.5%	12.9%	2.8%	4.25	3.88	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	181	72	23	100%	6.6	21.4%	8.5%	12.9%	2.8%	4.25	3.88	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		53	26	184	736	157	55	13	49%	3.5	21.3%	7.5%	13.9%	1.7%	2.55	3.20	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	28	200	801	171	60	14	49%	3.5	21.3%	7.5%	13.9%	1.7%	2.55	3.20	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Kisting (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	20.1%	8.9%	2.7%	—	4.23	21.4%	13.0%	334	-0.17	—	—	—
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	88
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	87
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	87
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	86
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	86
Rico Garcia R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	18.8%	7.0%	1.8%	.316	4.07	19.8%	11.5%	296	+0.70	3.37	587	85
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	85
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	85
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	83
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	83
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	82
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	82
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	82
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	82
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	82
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	82
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	82
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	82
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	81
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	100	21.3%	8.5%	1.11	4.32
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67