Jacob Kisting

P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP40OGV rank#266ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	30	5	74	3.79	2.48	25.7%	7.7%	—	K 19.4% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.33
2026	23	MIX2 levels	23	21	110	1.72	2.30	29.1%	5.7%	—	K 22.7% · BB 6.5% · FIP 3.10
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIA	1	1	1	3.84	3.84	21.8%	6.2%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	25	MLBMIA	5	5	33	3.78	3.76	22.2%	6.2%	0.6
2029PROJ51% MLB	26	MLBMIA	8	8	52	3.78	3.77	22.4%	6.2%	1.0

Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.4M2034Ext$5M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 6.4, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 77%

CompsMatt Andriese (age 25) · Blake Money (age 22) · Martin Agosta (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA3.84

FIP3.84

K%21.8%

BB%6.2%

K-BB%15.6%

Proj IP130

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$42M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$21M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	5	74	300	77	23	3	17%	2.5	19.4%	8.9%	10.5%	1.3%	3.79	3.33	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	5	74	300	77	23	3	17%	2.5	19.4%	8.9%	10.5%	1.3%	3.79	3.33	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	5	74	300	77	23	3	17%	2.5	25.7%	7.7%	18.0%	1.0%	3.79	2.48	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	110	436	127	25	7	91%	4.8	22.7%	6.5%	16.2%	2.0%	1.72	3.10	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	110	436	127	25	7	91%	4.8	22.7%	6.5%	16.2%	2.0%	1.72	3.10	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	110	436	127	25	7	91%	4.8	29.1%	5.7%	23.4%	1.6%	1.72	2.30	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIA	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	21.8%	6.2%	15.6%	2.6%	3.84	3.84	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	108	458	101	28	12	100%	6.4	22.2%	6.2%	16.0%	2.6%	3.85	3.83	+2.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	101	426	95	27	11	100%	6.3	22.4%	6.2%	16.1%	2.6%	3.85	3.84	+1.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	96	405	91	26	11	100%	6.4	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	2.7%	3.88	3.89	+1.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	91	383	85	25	11	100%	6.5	22.2%	6.6%	15.6%	2.8%	3.95	3.99	+1.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	84	356	78	24	11	100%	6.5	22.0%	6.8%	15.2%	3.0%	4.05	4.12	+1.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	76	322	70	23	10	100%	6.4	21.6%	7.1%	14.5%	3.2%	4.20	4.30	+1.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIA	5	5	33	139	31	9	3	100%	6.6	22.2%	6.2%	16.0%	2.5%	3.78	3.76	+0.6
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	52	220	49	14	6	100%	6.5	22.4%	6.2%	16.1%	2.5%	3.78	3.77	+1.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	61	258	58	16	7	100%	6.1	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	2.6%	3.81	3.82	+1.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	65	274	61	18	7	100%	6.5	22.2%	6.6%	15.6%	2.7%	3.87	3.91	+1.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	65	274	60	19	8	100%	6.5	22.0%	6.8%	15.2%	2.8%	3.97	4.04	+1.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	62	262	57	19	8	100%	6.2	21.6%	7.1%	14.5%	3.0%	4.11	4.21	+0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	53	338	1426	315	94	39	100%	6.4	22.1%	6.6%	15.5%	2.7%	3.90	3.56	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	187	56	23	100%	6.4	22.1%	6.6%	15.5%	2.7%	3.90	3.56	+4.5
Career	—	MLE		53	26	184	736	157	55	13	49%	3.5	21.3%	7.5%	13.9%	1.7%	2.55	3.20	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	28	200	801	171	60	14	49%	3.5	21.3%	7.5%	13.9%	1.7%	2.55	3.20	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 86 IPFIP 2.35 → 3.25 (+0.90)K% 28.5% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.49%	—	×0.770	21.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.34%	—	×1.150	6.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.78%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.23%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.35 → 3.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 24 IPFIP 1.91 → 2.61 (+0.70)K% 31.3% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.31%	—	×0.810	25.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.07%	—	×1.100	7.78%
HR / BF /BF	1.01%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.21%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.91 → 2.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 40 IPFIP 3.07 → 3.92 (+0.85)K% 23.2% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.23%	—	×0.770	17.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×1.150	11.13%
HR / BF /BF	1.29%	÷0.962	×1.250	1.68%

Result: FIP 3.07 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 34 IPFIP 1.79 → 2.71 (+0.92)K% 28.3% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.28%	—	×0.740	20.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.52%	—	×1.180	6.51%
HR / BF /BF	0.69%	÷0.898	×1.300	1.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 1.79 → 2.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Kisting (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	3.85	22.3%	16.0%	305	+0.01	—	—	—
Matt Andriese R 2015 · 3.08 FIP	25	SP-	3.08	20.1%	5.0%	1.9%	.316	4.01	21.8%	16.2%	327	+0.93	3.08	744	85
Blake Money R 2024 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP-	3.46	20.7%	6.9%	2.2%	.281	4.00	23.6%	14.1%	121	+0.54	3.46	224	85
Martin Agosta R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	21.6%	6.2%	4.1%	.340	4.58	12.3%	5.7%	40	+0.28	4.30	146	84
Brian Lawrence R 2001 · 3.53 FIP	25	SP-	3.53	17.4%	6.0%	2.1%	.269	3.98	14.6%	9.2%	624	+0.45	3.33	963	82
K.C. Hunt R 2024 · 2.69 FIP	24	SP-	2.69	26.8%	7.1%	1.8%	.277	4.94	17.5%	6.4%	186	+2.25	2.69	288	82
Deck McGuire R 2015 · 3.69 FIP	26	SP-	3.69	18.2%	6.2%	2.4%	.301	4.44	18.9%	9.2%	411	+0.75	3.41	622	81
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	81
James Hicks R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	23	SW	4.23	19.6%	7.2%	3.4%	.338	4.60	17.1%	9.7%	166	+0.37	4.23	272	81
Kolton Mahoney R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	17.1%	4.4%	2.6%	.312	3.73	16.9%	9.5%	198	+0.11	3.56	302	81
Jason Forjet R 2015 · 3.36 FIP	25	SP-	3.36	17.0%	5.3%	1.9%	.290	4.48	15.9%	10.4%	102	+1.12	3.36	197	80
Kyle Lloyd R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP-	4.03	18.3%	8.1%	2.7%	.327	3.80	17.3%	8.9%	324	-0.23	3.50	572	79
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	79
Aaron Brown R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP-	3.98	19.8%	8.8%	2.6%	.337	5.87	17.1%	9.0%	186	+1.89	3.98	418	79
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	78
Ryan Lobus R 2024 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP-	3.68	27.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.277	3.65	22.1%	13.2%	128	-0.03	3.59	216	78
Shaun Anderson R 2019 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP-	4.24	18.0%	8.3%	2.9%	.317	4.59	19.5%	9.2%	150	+0.35	3.58	880	77
Buck Farmer R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP-	4.41	16.4%	7.4%	3.2%	.307	4.01	19.6%	10.9%	370	-0.40	3.16	907	77
Logan Verrett R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SW	3.81	18.5%	6.7%	2.6%	.277	5.15	15.8%	6.3%	164	+1.34	3.81	550	77
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	77
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	98	22.1%	6.4%	1.07	3.93
Roger Nelson ('67-'76, 10 WAR*)	3.2	106	19.5%*	7.1%*	0.98*	3.88*
Collin McHugh ('23)	5.0	90	23.3%	6.7%	0.96	3.72
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Wally Whitehurst ('89-'96, 4 WAR*)	2.4	98	19.0%*	6.3%*	1.11*	4.50*
Steve Ontiveros ('85-'00, 8 WAR*)	3.3	95	17.9%*	7.0%*	0.89*	3.79*
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20