James Hicks

P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1145ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	25	12	106	3.82	3.35	25.1%	6.3%	—	K 19.6% · BB 7.2% · FIP 4.23
2025	24	AAHOU	11	10	47	5.59	3.98	22.3%	6.8%	—	K 18.1% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.64
2026	25	AAHOU	24	24	119	5.14	3.85	20.6%	6.7%	—	K 16.7% · BB 7.4% · FIP 4.59
2027PROJ	26	MLBHOU	1	1	1	4.67	4.67	16.8%	6.4%	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	27	MLBHOU	4	4	24	4.60	4.62	17.3%	6.6%	0.2
2029PROJ46% MLB	28	MLBHOU	6	6	36	4.63	4.67	17.5%	6.8%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$0.6M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsNick Payero (age 24) · Ryan Watson (age 25) · Markus Solbach (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%16.8%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.2M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	3	2	6	24	6	2	0	67%	1.9	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	1.59	2.04	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	3	2	6	24	6	2	0	67%	1.9	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	1.59	2.04	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	12	106	459	115	29	13	48%	4.2	19.6%	7.2%	12.4%	3.4%	3.82	4.23	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	12	106	459	115	29	13	48%	4.2	19.6%	7.2%	12.4%	3.4%	3.82	4.23	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	12	106	459	115	29	13	48%	4.2	25.1%	6.3%	18.7%	2.8%	3.82	3.35	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	11	10	47	206	46	14	7	91%	4.2	18.1%	7.5%	10.6%	3.9%	5.59	4.64	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	11	10	47	206	46	14	7	91%	4.2	18.1%	7.5%	10.6%	3.9%	5.59	4.64	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	11	10	47	206	46	14	7	91%	4.2	22.3%	6.8%	15.5%	3.4%	5.59	3.98	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	24	24	119	505	104	34	15	100%	5.0	16.7%	7.4%	9.3%	3.6%	5.14	4.59	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	24	24	119	505	104	34	15	100%	5.0	16.7%	7.4%	9.3%	3.6%	5.14	4.59	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	24	24	119	505	104	34	15	100%	5.0	20.6%	6.7%	13.9%	3.0%	5.14	3.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	HOU	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	16.8%	6.4%	10.4%	3.3%	4.67	4.67	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	88	370	64	24	12	100%	5.8	17.3%	6.6%	10.7%	3.3%	4.65	4.67	+0.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	80	336	59	23	11	100%	6.1	17.5%	6.8%	10.7%	3.4%	4.68	4.72	+0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	73	308	54	22	11	100%	6.1	17.5%	7.1%	10.4%	3.5%	4.76	4.83	+0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	66	277	48	21	10	100%	6.0	17.3%	7.4%	9.9%	3.7%	4.89	4.99	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	HOU	4	4	24	101	18	7	3	100%	6.0	17.3%	6.6%	10.7%	3.2%	4.60	4.62	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	36	152	27	10	5	100%	6.0	17.5%	6.8%	10.7%	3.3%	4.63	4.67	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	41	173	30	12	6	100%	5.9	17.5%	7.1%	10.4%	3.4%	4.71	4.78	+0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	43	182	31	13	7	100%	6.1	17.3%	7.4%	9.9%	3.6%	4.83	4.93	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		24	24	145	610	106	43	21	100%	6.0	17.4%	7.1%	10.4%	3.4%	4.71	4.39	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	147	59	29	100%	6.0	17.4%	7.1%	10.4%	3.4%	4.71	4.39	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		63	48	277	1194	217	88	42	76%	4.4	18.2%	7.3%	10.9%	3.5%	4.64	4.41	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	35	200	861	157	63	30	76%	4.4	18.2%	7.3%	10.9%	3.5%	4.64	4.41	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 119 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.59 (+0.74)K% 20.6% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.59%	—	×0.810	16.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.73%	—	×1.100	7.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.97%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.56%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 47 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.64 (+0.70)K% 22.3% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.33%	—	×0.810	18.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.80%	—	×1.100	7.48%
HR / BF /BF	3.40%	÷1.057	×1.200	3.86%

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 48 IPFIP 3.60 → 4.47 (+0.87)K% 23.7% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.74%	—	×0.810	19.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.94%	—	×1.100	6.53%
HR / BF /BF	3.20%	÷0.970	×1.200	3.95%

Result: FIP 3.60 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Asheville Tourists · 40 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.30 (+0.80)K% 22.4% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.35%	—	×0.770	17.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.29%	—	×1.150	6.09%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.073	×1.250	3.43%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 18 IPFIP 2.13 → 3.27 (+1.14)K% 35.7% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.71%	—	×0.740	26.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.180	11.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷1.118	×1.300	1.66%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 2.13 → 3.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Astros · 6 IPFIP 2.04 → 2.98 (+0.94)K% 25.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.680	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.250	10.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.379	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 176).

Result: FIP 2.04 → 2.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
James Hicks (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.74	17.5%	10.6%	240	+0.07	—	—	—
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	87
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	84
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	83
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	82
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	82
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	82
Whit Mayberry R 2016 · 3.54 FIP	26	SP-	3.54	16.2%	4.3%	2.3%	.267	2.64	12.3%	7.7%	11	-0.90	2.64	140	81
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	81
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	80
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	80
Josh Banks R 2008 · 4.81 FIP	26	SP-	4.81	11.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.283	6.01	9.0%	6.0%	23	+1.20	4.81	108	80
Brad Lincoln R 2011 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP-	3.78	13.7%	5.7%	2.1%	.301	4.23	22.3%	13.9%	120	+0.45	3.78	280	80
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	80
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	79
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	79
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	79
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	78
Mitch Myers R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	16.1%	5.8%	3.3%	.338	5.64	17.3%	8.5%	92	+1.35	3.56	432	78
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	78
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	75	17.3%	6.9%	1.33	4.72
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Joe Biagini ('21)	1.7	83	19.0%	7.9%	1.28	5.03
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Minnie Rojas ('66-'68, 1 WAR*)	1.3	87	17.1%*	6.5%*	1.35*	4.07*
Rich Monteleone ('87-'96, 2 WAR*)	1.8	71	18.7%*	7.5%*	1.39*	4.03*