James Hicks — OGILVIE

James Hicks P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION119 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%18.4%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL—55

CMD5060

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	3	2	6	24	6	2	0	67%	1.9	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	1.59	2.04	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	3	2	6	24	6	2	0	67%	1.9	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	1.59	2.04	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	3	2	6	24	6	2	0	67%	1.9	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	1.59	2.04	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	12	106	459	115	29	13	48%	4.2	19.6%	7.2%	12.4%	3.4%	3.82	4.23	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	12	106	459	115	29	13	48%	4.2	19.6%	7.2%	12.4%	3.4%	3.82	4.23	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	12	106	459	115	29	13	48%	4.2	25.1%	6.3%	18.7%	2.8%	3.82	3.35	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	11	10	47	206	46	14	7	91%	4.2	18.1%	7.5%	10.6%	3.9%	5.59	4.64	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	11	10	47	206	46	14	7	91%	4.2	18.1%	7.5%	10.6%	3.9%	5.59	4.64	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	11	10	47	206	46	14	7	91%	4.2	22.3%	6.8%	15.5%	3.4%	5.59	3.98	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	24	24	119	505	104	34	15	100%	5.0	16.7%	7.4%	9.3%	3.6%	5.14	4.59	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	24	24	119	505	104	34	15	100%	5.0	16.7%	7.4%	9.3%	3.6%	5.14	4.59	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	HOU	24	24	119	505	104	34	15	100%	5.0	20.6%	6.7%	13.9%	3.0%	5.14	3.84	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	HOU	1	1	5	21	4	1	1	100%	5.0	18.4%	6.4%	12.0%	3.2%	4.52	4.52	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	124	526	108	35	16	—	—	20.5%	6.7%	13.8%	3.0%	5.12	4.58	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	HOU	19	19	116	492	94	32	16	100%	6.1	19.2%	6.5%	12.8%	3.2%	4.46	4.44	+0.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	HOU	19	19	115	485	94	32	16	100%	6.0	19.4%	6.6%	12.8%	3.3%	4.46	4.47	+0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	HOU	19	19	111	470	91	32	16	100%	5.9	19.4%	6.8%	12.6%	3.3%	4.50	4.54	+0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	106	449	86	32	16	100%	5.9	19.2%	7.1%	12.2%	3.5%	4.59	4.66	+0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	100	422	80	31	16	100%	5.9	18.9%	7.4%	11.5%	3.7%	4.74	4.84	+0.1
2032	31	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	93	394	73	30	15	100%	5.8	18.5%	7.7%	10.8%	3.9%	4.92	5.04	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	51	215	41	14	7	100%	6.4	19.2%	6.5%	12.8%	3.1%	4.41	4.39	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	73	308	60	20	10	100%	6.1	19.4%	6.6%	12.8%	3.2%	4.41	4.42	+0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	84	355	69	24	12	100%	6.0	19.4%	6.8%	12.6%	3.2%	4.45	4.49	+0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	87	367	71	26	12	100%	6.2	19.2%	7.1%	12.2%	3.4%	4.54	4.61	+0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	86	363	69	27	13	100%	6.1	18.9%	7.4%	11.5%	3.6%	4.68	4.78	+0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	83	350	65	27	13	100%	5.9	18.5%	7.7%	10.8%	3.8%	4.86	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		77	77	463	1957	374	138	67	100%	6.0	19.1%	7.1%	12.0%	3.4%	4.57	4.25	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	161	60	29	100%	6.0	19.1%	7.1%	12.0%	3.4%	4.57	4.25	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		63	48	277	1194	217	88	42	76%	4.4	18.2%	7.3%	10.9%	3.5%	4.64	4.41	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	35	200	861	157	63	30	76%	4.4	18.2%	7.3%	10.9%	3.5%	4.64	4.41	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
James Hicks (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	18.4%	6.4%	3.2%	—	4.48	19.3%	12.7%	343	-0.04	—	—	—
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	86
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	84
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	84
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	81
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	81
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	79
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	79
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	79
Jeffrey Passantino R 2021 · 4.97 FIP	25	SP	4.97	18.5%	6.8%	4.7%	.298	4.72	14.8%	8.1%	41	-0.25	2.02	242	79
Wilmer Font R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	26	SP	3.82	17.0%	4.9%	2.8%	.277	3.84	26.2%	19.1%	263	+0.02	2.76	345	78
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	78
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	77
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	77
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	77
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	77
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	76
Blake Adams R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	22	SP	3.40	18.6%	7.3%	1.7%	.333	4.00	17.0%	10.5%	306	+0.60	3.36	389	76
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	76
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	76
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	100	19.1%	6.9%	1.33	4.59
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Wade LeBlanc ('21)	2.4	81	18.0%	6.0%	1.67	4.61