James Hicks
P
Corpus Christi Hooks
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
K%18.4%
BB%6.3%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Astros | 3 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 67% | 1.9 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 1.59 | 2.04 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Astros | 3 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 67% | 1.9 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 1.59 | 2.04 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 12 | 106 | 459 | 115 | 29 | 13 | 48% | 4.2 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 3.82 | 4.20 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 12 | 106 | 459 | 115 | 29 | 13 | 48% | 4.2 | 25.1% | 6.3% | 18.7% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 3.35 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 11 | 10 | 47 | 206 | 46 | 14 | 7 | 91% | 4.2 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 5.59 | 4.53 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 11 | 10 | 47 | 206 | 46 | 14 | 7 | 91% | 4.2 | 22.3% | 6.8% | 15.5% | 3.4% | 5.59 | 3.98 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 15 | 15 | 74 | 310 | 66 | 23 | 12 | 100% | 5.0 | 17.2% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 4.6% | 5.45 | 5.23 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 60 | 251 | 46 | 16 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.4% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | HOU | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 134 | 561 | 112 | 39 | 20 | — | — | 20.0% | 6.9% | 13.1% | 3.6% | 5.02 | 4.90 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.4% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.16 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 60 | 251 | 49 | 16 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.3% | 6.6% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 59 | 247 | 49 | 17 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.6% | 6.8% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 57 | 240 | 47 | 17 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 12.6% | 3.3% | 4.50 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 54 | 229 | 45 | 17 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 7.4% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 4.60 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 41 | 16 | 8 | 100% | 6.4 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 3.7% | 4.74 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 19.3% | 6.6% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.49 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 31 | 11 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.6% | 6.8% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.50 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 36 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 36 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.5% | 7.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 4.66 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 36 | 14 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 3.8% | 4.80 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 33 | 33 | 195 | 824 | 161 | 59 | 29 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 4.61 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 165 | 60 | 30 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 4.61 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 54 | 39 | 233 | 999 | 187 | 76 | 37 | 72% | 4.3 | 18.7% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 4.64 | 4.54 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 34 | 200 | 859 | 160 | 65 | 32 | 72% | 4.3 | 18.7% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 4.64 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| James Hicks (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 18.4% | 6.3% | 3.2% | — | 4.47 | 19.5% | 12.7% | 175 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 89 |
| Ryan Watson R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.26 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | .342 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 5.4% | 98 | +1.59 | 4.26 | 165 | 85 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 85 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 80 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 79 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.3% | .291 | 3.94 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.09 | 3.46 | 274 | 78 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.33 | 17.0% | 5.3% | 1.8% | .290 | 4.39 | 15.9% | 10.4% | 102 | +1.06 | 3.33 | 197 | 78 |
| Hector Noesí R 2029 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 78 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.69 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .336 | 6.45 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.76 | 3.69 | 124 | 78 |
| Jeffrey Passantino R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.13 | 18.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | .298 | 4.58 | 14.8% | 8.1% | 41 | -0.55 | 2.02 | 242 | 77 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 77 |
| Deivi Villafana R 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.22 | 14.9% | 6.1% | 2.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 109 | 77 |
| Noah Gotsis R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.38 | 16.5% | 6.5% | 1.5% | .296 | 4.26 | 15.9% | 8.6% | 90 | +0.88 | 3.38 | 138 | 77 |
| Mitch Myers R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.1% | 5.8% | 3.9% | .338 | 5.87 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 72 | +1.25 | 3.50 | 412 | 77 |
| Matt Ager R 2024 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 77 |
| Wilmer Font R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.55 | 17.0% | 4.9% | 2.3% | .277 | 3.87 | 26.2% | 19.1% | 263 | +0.32 | 2.78 | 345 | 76 |
| Kyle Smith R 2025 · 3.33 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.33 | 15.2% | 5.7% | 1.4% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 159 | 76 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 76 |
| Josh Winder R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.1% | 6.9% | 4.3% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.4% | 11.9% | 106 | -0.97 | 2.66 | 426 | 75 |
| Mat Latos R 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 57 | 19.3% | 6.9% | 1.29 | 4.53 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |