James Hicks
P
Corpus Christi Hooks
+0.3
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.8%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%12.7%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Astros | 3 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.59 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 25 | 12 | 106 | 459 | 115 | 29 | 13 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 3.82 | 4.23 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 11 | 10 | 47 | 206 | 46 | 14 | 7 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 5.59 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 3 | 3 | 14 | 57 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 15.6% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 3.21 | 3.67 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | HOU | 56 | — | 56 | 239 | 50 | 19 | 8 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 70 | 296 | 61 | 22 | 9 | 20.5% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.34 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 56 | — | 56 | 239 | 51 | 19 | 8 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 51 | 20 | 8 | 21.5% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 50 | 19 | 8 | 21.5% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 49 | 19 | 7 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 47 | 19 | 7 | 21.2% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 45 | 19 | 7 | 21.0% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 43 | 18 | 7 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 40 | 18 | 7 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 37 | 17 | 7 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 4.89 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 35 | 17 | 7 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 5.01 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 32 | 16 | 6 | 19.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 5.13 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 42 | 27 | 172 | 746 | 142 | 54 | 25 | 19.0% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 4.18 | 4.21 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 31 | 200 | 866 | 165 | 63 | 29 | 19.0% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 4.18 | 4.21 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| James Hicks (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 3.2% | — | 4.48 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 168 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.90 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .311 | 6.77 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.87 | 3.90 | 106 | 93 |
| J.R. Graham R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.65 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.72 | 3.31 | 125 | 91 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 91 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .284 | 3.18 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 103 | -0.81 | 3.13 | 179 | 89 |
| Casey Cobb R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.52 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .261 | 5.56 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 118 | +2.04 | 3.52 | 191 | 89 |
| John Brebbia R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.23 | 27.6% | 21.4% | 215 | -0.92 | 2.96 | 523 | 88 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 88 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.40 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .293 | 5.06 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 115 | +1.66 | 3.40 | 258 | 88 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 88 |
| Ryan Watson R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.17 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | .342 | 5.44 | 13.1% | 5.4% | 98 | +1.27 | 4.17 | 165 | 87 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 87 |
| Colton Hock R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.77 | 21.3% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .304 | 3.84 | 17.7% | 11.7% | 60 | +0.07 | 3.28 | 253 | 87 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 87 |
| Trey Cobb R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.45 | 18.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | .317 | 6.91 | 13.4% | 3.6% | 40 | +2.46 | 3.95 | 192 | 87 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 86 |
| Alex Phillips R 2025 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.34 | 3.26 | 139 | 86 |
| Mark McLaughlin R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.95 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 174 | 86 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 86 |
| Seth Frankoff R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.02 | 19.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .312 | 4.24 | 20.0% | 11.3% | 177 | +0.22 | 2.88 | 263 | 86 |
| Yaya Chentouf R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.18 | 21.7% | 6.8% | 3.7% | .282 | 5.14 | 13.0% | -1.8% | 29 | +0.96 | 3.40 | 225 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $6M | +$1M | ||