Aaron Brown
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AAA
ERA5.99
FIP5.99
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.0%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%7.5%
IP88
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF3030
CTRL4545
CMD3030
K†3040
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 6 | 4 | 22 | 91 | 32 | 4 | 4 | 25.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.40 | 4.08 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 25 | 14 | 109 | 483 | 95 | 34 | 21 | 15.1% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.28 | 5.93 | -0.8 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 26 | 14 | 103 | 450 | 110 | 36 | 13 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.08 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 27 | 18 | 114 | 493 | 126 | 34 | 17 | 20.9% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 4.66 | 4.63 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 20 | 15 | 72 | 359 | 46 | 37 | 26 | 11.3% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 9.46 | 8.07 | -2.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 88 | 371 | 54 | 42 | 19 | 14.6% | 11.4% | 5.0% | 6.43 | 6.43 | -1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 89 | 374 | 57 | 42 | 18 | 15.3% | 11.1% | 4.8% | 6.23 | 6.24 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 57 | 40 | 17 | 15.7% | 10.9% | 4.7% | 6.11 | 6.13 | -0.9 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 84 | 355 | 56 | 39 | 17 | 15.8% | 10.9% | 4.7% | 6.07 | 6.10 | -0.9 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 81 | 342 | 54 | 37 | 16 | 15.7% | 10.9% | 4.7% | 6.09 | 6.13 | -0.9 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 78 | 329 | 57 | 34 | 16 | 17.5% | 10.3% | 4.8% | 6.00 | 5.94 | -0.7 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 54 | 33 | 15 | 17.2% | 10.4% | 4.9% | 6.03 | 6.04 | -0.8 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 50 | 32 | 15 | 16.8% | 10.6% | 5.0% | 6.10 | 6.15 | -0.9 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 67 | 281 | 46 | 31 | 14 | 16.4% | 10.9% | 5.1% | 6.20 | 6.27 | -1.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 42 | 29 | 14 | 16.0% | 11.1% | 5.2% | 6.32 | 6.41 | -1.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 65 | 420 | 1876 | 329 | 158 | 95 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 5.60 | 5.46 | -0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 31 | 200 | 894 | 157 | 75 | 45 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 5.60 | 5.46 | -0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Brown (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.43 | 14.6% | 11.4% | 5.0% | — | 6.16 | 15.6% | 4.6% | 259 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.94 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 239 | 89 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.25 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -1.02 | 3.92 | 272 | 84 |
| Brad Allen R 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.86 | 14.7% | 13.2% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 149 | 80 |
| Chris Jensen R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.31 | 12.0% | 10.6% | 3.4% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 488 | 80 |
| Casey Kelly R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.30 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 4.5% | .318 | 4.41 | 16.4% | 10.2% | 160 | -0.89 | 4.06 | 607 | 79 |
| Bryan Mitchell R 2026 · 6.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.05 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 4.5% | .282 | 5.37 | 17.2% | 4.6% | 115 | -0.68 | 2.72 | 481 | 79 |
| Jared Kollar R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.62 | 11.5% | 9.8% | 4.1% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 345 | 76 |
| Brett Conine R 2024 · 5.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.70 | 14.8% | 11.1% | 4.4% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 319 | 76 |
| Zac Reininger R 2025 · 5.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.98 | 15.6% | 10.7% | 5.2% | .338 | 2.60 | 19.2% | 16.9% | 23 | -3.38 | 2.58 | 259 | 76 |
| David Fletcher R 2029 · 5.65 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.65 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.65 | 100 | 76 |
| Kaleb Roper R 2025 · 5.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.69 | 17.3% | 11.8% | 4.7% | .398 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.69 | 146 | 76 |
| Alec Baker R 2024 · 5.40 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.40 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 161 | 76 |
| Brock Stewart R 2026 · 6.66 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.66 | 15.8% | 10.1% | 6.6% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.56 | 596 | 75 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2024 · 5.93 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.93 | 20.6% | 13.0% | 5.3% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 358 | 74 |
| Nick Payero R 2024 · 5.80 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.80 | 16.6% | 12.0% | 4.7% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 178 | 73 |
| A.J. Achter R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.62 | 12.5% | 7.5% | 4.8% | .227 | 4.43 | 15.0% | 4.0% | 29 | -1.19 | 4.21 | 174 | 73 |
| Ryan Watson R 2025 · 5.44 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.44 | 13.1% | 7.7% | 4.5% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 165 | 73 |
| Brady Feigl R 2024 · 5.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.32 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 4.8% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 257 | 72 |
| Blayne Weller R 2025 · 5.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.65 | 17.6% | 9.2% | 5.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 254 | 72 |
| Max Duval R 2026 · 6.40 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.40 | 15.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 189 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.