Aaron Brown — OGILVIE

Aaron Brown P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 157149vR 141

ERA6.52

FIP6.52

K%12.0%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%1.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	4	22	91	32	4	4	67%	3.6	25.3%	4.3%	21.0%	5.4%	5.40	4.47	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	4	22	91	32	4	4	67%	3.6	35.2%	4.4%	30.8%	4.4%	5.40	3.10	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	14	109	483	95	34	21	56%	4.4	15.1%	8.1%	7.0%	5.6%	5.28	5.92	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	25	14	109	483	95	34	21	56%	4.4	19.7%	7.0%	12.6%	4.3%	5.28	4.80	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	26	14	103	450	110	36	13	54%	3.9	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	2.6%	4.30	3.98	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	26	14	103	450	110	36	13	54%	3.9	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	2.6%	4.30	3.98	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	26	14	103	450	110	36	13	54%	3.9	24.4%	8.0%	16.4%	2.9%	4.30	3.66	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	114	493	126	34	17	67%	4.2	20.8%	7.3%	13.5%	4.2%	4.66	4.60	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	114	493	126	34	17	67%	4.2	20.8%	7.3%	13.5%	4.2%	4.66	4.60	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	18	114	493	126	34	17	67%	4.2	25.6%	6.9%	18.7%	3.4%	4.66	3.72	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	20	15	72	359	46	37	26	75%	3.6	10.6%	9.3%	1.4%	8.3%	9.46	7.93	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	20	15	72	359	46	37	26	75%	3.6	10.6%	9.3%	1.4%	8.3%	9.46	7.93	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	20	15	72	359	46	37	26	75%	3.6	12.8%	10.3%	2.5%	7.2%	9.46	8.04	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	HOU	1	1	6	25	3	3	1	100%	6.0	12.0%	10.5%	1.6%	5.0%	6.52	6.52	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	68	287	37	30	14	100%	6.2	13.0%	10.5%	2.5%	4.9%	6.35	6.39	-1.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	65	274	37	29	13	100%	6.5	13.6%	10.6%	2.9%	4.9%	6.29	6.36	-1.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	HOU	5	5	29	122	16	13	6	100%	5.8	13.0%	10.5%	2.5%	4.9%	6.35	6.39	-0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	38	160	22	17	8	100%	6.3	13.6%	10.6%	2.9%	4.9%	6.29	6.36	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	11	67	283	38	30	14	100%	6.1	13.3%	10.6%	2.8%	4.9%	6.32	5.99	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	113	89	42	100%	6.2	13.3%	10.6%	2.8%	4.9%	6.32	5.99	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		104	65	420	1876	326	152	94	62%	4.0	17.4%	8.1%	9.3%	5.0%	5.60	5.42	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	31	200	894	155	72	45	62%	4.0	17.4%	8.1%	9.3%	5.0%	5.60	5.42	-3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.52	12.0%	10.5%	5.0%	—	6.38	13.3%	2.7%	133	-0.14	—	—	—
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	86
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	83
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	78
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	76
Noah Skirrow R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	13.8%	10.0%	4.3%	.330	4.77	11.7%	0.0%	95	-0.79	3.97	371	74
Levi Stoudt R 2023 · 6.26 FIP	25	SP-	6.26	13.0%	12.1%	5.0%	.280	6.17	15.0%	4.1%	110	-0.09	4.35	395	73
Bryan Mitchell R 2018 · 6.03 FIP	27	SP-	6.03	13.0%	12.2%	4.5%	.282	5.36	17.2%	4.6%	115	-0.67	2.72	481	72
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	71
Brett Conine R 2022 · 5.68 FIP	25	SW	5.68	14.8%	11.1%	4.4%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	319	71
Jake Walkinshaw R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	27	SP-	6.54	12.7%	9.7%	6.0%	.288	3.94	15.2%	5.6%	118	-2.60	2.84	307	71
Luis Romero R 2021 · 6.01 FIP	27	SW	6.01	13.8%	10.1%	5.1%	.293	5.70	11.6%	-1.5%	68	-0.31	4.00	293	71
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.84	19.6%	8.0%	114	-2.22	3.68	136	71
Reilly Hovis R 2021 · 7.62 FIP	27	SP	7.62	12.7%	7.9%	8.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	130	71
Brett Ash R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	26	SP-	5.47	9.3%	8.2%	3.9%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	349	70
Asher Wojciechowski R 2016 · 5.40 FIP	27	SP	5.40	13.5%	11.0%	3.7%	.315	4.71	22.2%	14.4%	379	-0.69	3.15	678	70
Max Duval R 2018 · 6.36 FIP	27	SP-	6.36	15.0%	7.8%	6.5%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	189	70
Brock Stewart R 2019 · 6.70 FIP	27	SP-	6.70	15.8%	10.1%	6.7%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.51	618	69
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	69
Brandon Gold R 2022 · 6.59 FIP	27	SP-	6.59	12.7%	9.4%	6.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	639	69
Alex Klonowski R 2019 · 6.17 FIP	27	SP-	6.17	8.6%	8.6%	4.9%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	539	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	12.9%	10.5%	1.90	6.39
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Adam Plutko ('21)	1.4	68	17.0%	7.2%	2.17	5.37
David Hess ('21)	1.0	68	17.4%	8.5%	2.66	6.24
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44