Aaron Brown

P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	AAHOU	26	14	103	4.30	3.66	24.4%	8.0%	—	K 19.8% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.98
2024	25	MIX2 levels	27	18	114	4.66	3.72	25.6%	6.9%	—	K 20.9% · BB 7.3% · FIP 4.59
2025	26	AAAHOU	20	15	72	9.46	8.04	12.8%	10.3%	—	K 11.0% · BB 9.3% · FIP 7.89
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBHOU	1	1	7	6.30	6.30	11.4%	10.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBHOU	3	3	19	6.18	6.23	12.3%	10.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBHOU	4	4	23	6.18	6.27	12.8%	11.0%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control45Command30

CompsMiguel Ruiz (age 29) · David Griffin (age 27) · Clay Condrey (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 153145vR 137

ERA6.30

FIP6.30

K%11.4%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%0.6%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	4	22	91	32	4	4	67%	3.6	25.3%	4.3%	21.0%	5.4%	5.40	4.47	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	4	22	91	32	4	4	67%	3.6	35.2%	4.4%	30.8%	4.4%	5.40	3.10	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	14	109	483	95	34	21	56%	4.4	15.1%	8.1%	7.0%	5.6%	5.28	5.92	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	25	14	109	483	95	34	21	56%	4.4	19.7%	7.0%	12.6%	4.3%	5.28	4.80	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	26	14	103	450	110	36	13	54%	3.9	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	2.6%	4.30	3.98	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	26	14	103	450	110	36	13	54%	3.9	24.4%	8.0%	16.4%	2.9%	4.30	3.66	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	114	493	126	34	17	67%	4.2	20.9%	7.3%	13.6%	4.2%	4.66	4.59	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	114	493	126	34	17	67%	4.2	20.9%	7.3%	13.6%	4.2%	4.66	4.59	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	18	114	493	126	34	17	67%	4.2	25.6%	6.9%	18.7%	3.4%	4.66	3.72	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	20	15	72	359	46	37	26	75%	3.6	11.0%	9.3%	1.7%	8.3%	9.46	7.89	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	20	15	72	359	46	37	26	75%	3.6	11.0%	9.3%	1.7%	8.3%	9.46	7.89	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	20	15	72	359	46	37	26	75%	3.6	12.8%	10.3%	2.5%	7.2%	9.46	8.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	HOU	1	1	7	30	3	3	1	100%	7.0	11.4%	10.8%	0.6%	4.4%	6.30	6.30	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	HOU	8	8	51	216	27	23	10	100%	6.4	12.3%	10.8%	1.5%	4.4%	6.18	6.23	-0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	HOU	7	7	42	179	23	20	8	100%	6.1	12.8%	11.0%	1.8%	4.5%	6.18	6.27	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	HOU	3	3	19	80	10	9	4	100%	6.3	12.3%	10.8%	1.5%	4.4%	6.18	6.23	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	HOU	4	4	23	97	12	11	4	100%	5.8	12.8%	11.0%	1.8%	4.5%	6.18	6.27	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	7	42	178	22	20	8	100%	6.0	12.6%	10.9%	1.7%	4.5%	6.18	5.87	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	104	95	38	100%	6.5	12.6%	10.9%	1.7%	4.5%	6.18	5.87	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		104	65	420	1876	328	152	94	62%	4.0	17.5%	8.1%	9.4%	5.0%	5.60	5.41	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	31	200	894	156	72	45	62%	4.0	17.5%	8.1%	9.4%	5.0%	5.60	5.41	-1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 72 IPFIP 7.30 → 7.89 (+0.59)K% 12.8% → 11.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.81%	—	×0.860	11.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.31%	—	×0.900	9.28%
HR / BF /BF	7.24%	÷0.961	×1.100	8.29%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 7.30 → 7.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 92 IPFIP 3.23 → 4.14 (+0.92)K% 27.8% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.75%	—	×0.810	22.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.50%	—	×1.100	7.15%
HR / BF /BF	3.00%	÷0.970	×1.200	3.71%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 3.23 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 22 IPFIP 5.78 → 6.50 (+0.72)K% 16.1% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.13%	—	×0.860	13.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.60%	—	×0.900	7.74%
HR / BF /BF	5.38%	÷0.903	×1.100	6.55%

Result: FIP 5.78 → 6.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 103 IPFIP 3.63 → 3.98 (+0.35)K% 24.4% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.44%	—	×0.810	19.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.100	8.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.89%	÷1.322	×1.200	2.62%

Result: FIP 3.63 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Asheville Tourists · 109 IPFIP 4.72 → 5.92 (+1.20)K% 19.7% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.67%	—	×0.770	15.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.04%	—	×1.150	8.10%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷0.972	×1.250	5.59%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 4.72 → 5.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 20 IPFIP 3.36 → 4.47 (+1.12)K% 34.1% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.15%	—	×0.740	25.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.66%	—	×1.180	4.32%
HR / BF /BF	4.88%	÷1.176	×1.300	5.39%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 135).

Result: FIP 3.36 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.30	11.4%	10.8%	4.4%	—	6.25	12.6%	1.6%	94	-0.05	—	—	—
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	85
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	81
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	81
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	79
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	78
Tony Bucciferro R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	25	SP-	5.11	6.8%	6.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	5.11	107	74
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	74
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	73
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	72
Brian Powell R 2002 · 5.53 FIP	28	SP-	5.53	11.8%	8.3%	4.3%	.276	4.45	14.5%	7.3%	39	-1.08	4.45	212	72
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	71
David Holman R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	28	SW	5.28	10.0%	8.3%	3.6%	.284	5.80	8.9%	-1.8%	35	+0.52	5.28	129	70
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	70
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	70
Luke Hudson R 2005 · 5.54 FIP	28	SP	5.54	13.9%	12.6%	3.7%	.260	3.81	14.5%	6.1%	102	-1.73	3.81	235	70
Brett Ash R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	26	SP-	5.47	9.3%	8.2%	3.9%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	349	69
Nelson Figueroa R 2002 · 5.41 FIP	28	SW	5.41	12.4%	7.5%	4.4%	.250	5.52	12.5%	4.6%	64	+0.11	3.71	499	69
Dustin Moseley R 2010 · 5.73 FIP	28	SP-	5.73	11.9%	9.7%	4.4%	.259	3.84	12.7%	6.7%	120	-1.89	3.79	353	67
Denny Stark R 2003 · 5.28 FIP	28	SP-	5.28	8.2%	8.5%	3.3%	.294	7.10	6.7%	-3.3%	26	+1.82	5.28	259	67
Max Duval R 2018 · 6.36 FIP	27	SP-	6.36	15.0%	7.8%	6.5%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	189	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	12.1%	10.9%	1.72	6.23
Dave Stevens ('00)	1.3	50	14.6%	11.3%	1.76	6.02
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*