Aaron Brown
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 168159vR 150
ERA6.71
FIP6.71
K%12.5%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%0.8%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 4 | 22 | 91 | 32 | 4 | 4 | 67% | 3.6 | 25.3% | 4.3% | 21.0% | 4.7% | 5.40 | 4.09 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 4 | 22 | 91 | 32 | 4 | 4 | 67% | 3.6 | 35.2% | 4.4% | 30.8% | 4.4% | 5.40 | 3.10 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 25 | 14 | 109 | 483 | 95 | 34 | 21 | 56% | 4.4 | 15.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.28 | 6.01 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 25 | 14 | 109 | 483 | 95 | 34 | 21 | 56% | 4.4 | 19.7% | 7.0% | 12.6% | 4.3% | 5.28 | 4.80 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 26 | 14 | 103 | 450 | 110 | 36 | 13 | 54% | 3.9 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | 4.30 | 3.70 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 26 | 14 | 103 | 450 | 110 | 36 | 13 | 54% | 3.9 | 24.4% | 8.0% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 3.66 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 18 | 114 | 493 | 126 | 34 | 17 | 67% | 4.2 | 20.9% | 7.5% | 13.4% | 4.5% | 4.66 | 4.75 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 18 | 114 | 493 | 126 | 34 | 17 | 67% | 4.2 | 25.6% | 6.9% | 18.7% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 3.72 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 20 | 15 | 72 | 359 | 46 | 37 | 26 | 75% | 3.6 | 11.3% | 10.8% | 0.5% | 8.6% | 9.46 | 8.26 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 20 | 15 | 72 | 359 | 46 | 37 | 26 | 75% | 3.6 | 12.8% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 7.2% | 9.46 | 8.04 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 70 | 296 | 37 | 34 | 15 | 100% | 6.4 | 12.5% | 11.6% | 0.8% | 5.1% | 6.71 | 6.71 | -1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 39 | 33 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 13.4% | 11.5% | 1.9% | 5.0% | 6.52 | 6.55 | -1.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 65 | 274 | 38 | 32 | 14 | 100% | 6.5 | 13.9% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 6.45 | 6.52 | -1.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 16 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 13.4% | 11.5% | 1.9% | 5.0% | 6.52 | 6.55 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 22 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 13.9% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 6.45 | 6.52 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 39 | 33 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 13.7% | 11.6% | 2.2% | 5.0% | 6.48 | 6.15 | -1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 32 | 32 | 200 | 844 | 116 | 98 | 42 | 100% | 6.2 | 13.7% | 11.6% | 2.2% | 5.0% | 6.48 | 6.15 | -1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 104 | 65 | 420 | 1876 | 329 | 158 | 95 | 62% | 4.0 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 5.0% | 5.60 | 5.46 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 31 | 200 | 894 | 157 | 76 | 45 | 62% | 4.0 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 5.0% | 5.60 | 5.46 | -0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Brown (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.71 | 12.5% | 11.6% | 5.1% | — | 6.54 | 13.7% | 2.1% | 133 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 86 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2028 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 81 |
| Matthew Shepherd R 2024 · 5.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.57 | 13.7% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.57 | 116 | 75 |
| Bryan Mitchell R 2026 · 6.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.43 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 5.2% | .282 | 5.51 | 17.2% | 4.6% | 115 | -0.92 | 2.70 | 481 | 75 |
| David Fletcher R 2029 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 75 |
| Jared Kollar R 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.67 | 11.5% | 9.8% | 4.2% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 345 | 73 |
| Kevin Miranda R 2025 · 7.02 FIP | 26 | SP- | 7.02 | 14.1% | 10.0% | 7.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 153 | 73 |
| Noah Song R 2025 · 6.24 FIP | 26 | SP | 6.24 | 12.0% | 13.2% | 4.5% | .239 | 4.28 | 17.8% | 4.6% | 85 | -1.96 | 3.62 | 106 | 72 |
| Brett Conine R 2024 · 5.92 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.92 | 14.8% | 11.1% | 4.8% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 319 | 71 |
| Asher Wojciechowski R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.60 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 4.1% | .315 | 4.61 | 22.2% | 14.4% | 379 | -0.99 | 3.19 | 678 | 71 |
| Jake Walkinshaw R 2026 · 6.70 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.70 | 12.7% | 9.7% | 6.3% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.8% | 5.2% | 97 | -2.80 | 2.20 | 286 | 70 |
| Luis Romero R 2026 · 6.19 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.19 | 13.8% | 10.1% | 5.4% | .293 | 5.65 | 11.8% | -1.9% | 68 | -0.54 | 3.99 | 293 | 70 |
| Brock Stewart R 2026 · 6.71 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.71 | 15.8% | 10.1% | 6.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.51 | 596 | 70 |
| Colby Morris R 2024 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 69 |
| Reilly Hovis R 2026 · 7.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 7.75 | 12.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 130 | 69 |
| Max Duval R 2026 · 6.22 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.22 | 15.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 189 | 69 |
| Anders Tolhurst R 2024 · 6.41 FIP | 25 | SP | 6.41 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 6.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 159 | 69 |
| Brandon Gold R 2026 · 6.41 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.41 | 12.7% | 9.4% | 5.8% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 639 | 69 |
| Alex Blackford R 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.71 | 14.9% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 229 | 68 |
| Nick Payero R 2024 · 5.72 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.72 | 16.6% | 12.0% | 4.6% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 178 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 13.3% | 11.6% | 1.95 | 6.56 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Chris Young ('17) | 3 | 81 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 1.90 | 4.76 |