Gary Gill Hill — OGILVIE

Gary Gill Hill P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 160 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.4 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION140 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%15.7%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$33M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF3550

CTRL6055

CMD4545

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$8M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+1.5	$8M	+$5M
2032	Arb-2	$9M	+1.4	$7M	+$2M
2033	Arb-3	$11M	+1.2	$6M	+$0.2M
Totals		$28M		$39M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	41	191	39	19	3	86%	2.9	14.1%	12.2%	1.9%	2.6%	5.49	4.91	—
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	41	191	39	19	3	86%	2.9	14.1%	12.2%	1.9%	2.6%	5.49	4.91	—
2023	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	12	41	191	39	19	3	86%	2.9	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	1.6%	5.49	3.54	—
2024	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	22	21	109	433	105	27	9	95%	4.9	17.9%	7.4%	10.6%	3.3%	3.15	4.32	—
2024	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	22	21	109	433	105	27	9	95%	4.9	17.9%	7.4%	10.6%	3.3%	3.15	4.32	—
2024	19	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	22	21	109	433	105	27	9	95%	4.9	24.2%	6.2%	18.0%	2.1%	3.15	2.99	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	25	137	569	107	30	17	100%	5.5	14.5%	6.1%	8.4%	4.0%	3.82	4.85	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	25	137	569	107	30	17	100%	5.5	14.5%	6.1%	8.4%	4.0%	3.82	4.85	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	25	137	569	107	30	17	100%	5.5	18.8%	5.3%	13.5%	3.0%	3.82	3.81	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	26	26	140	592	119	29	18	100%	5.4	16.2%	5.5%	10.7%	3.8%	4.25	4.53	—
YTD	21	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	26	26	140	592	119	29	18	100%	5.4	16.2%	5.5%	10.7%	3.8%	4.25	4.53	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	NYM	5	5	27	116	26	9	5	100%	5.4	22.4%	7.8%	14.7%	4.3%	4.67	4.56	—
2026	21	AA RAW	NYM	20	20	108	454	89	19	13	100%	5.4	19.6%	4.2%	15.4%	2.9%	4.26	3.55	—
2026	21	AAA RAW	NYM	1	1	5	22	4	1	0	100%	5.0	18.2%	4.5%	13.6%	0.0%	1.80	2.14	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	NYM	3	3	14	60	9	4	2	100%	4.7	15.7%	6.9%	8.8%	3.3%	4.85	4.85	+0.0
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	154	652	128	33	20	—	—	19.7%	5.1%	14.6%	3.1%	4.31	4.56	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYM	32	32	164	695	126	46	22	100%	5.1	18.2%	6.6%	11.6%	3.2%	4.65	4.55	+0.7
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYM	32	32	171	721	142	46	23	100%	5.3	19.7%	6.3%	13.4%	3.2%	4.46	4.36	+1.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYM	31	31	175	739	153	46	23	100%	5.6	20.7%	6.2%	14.5%	3.1%	4.32	4.23	+1.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYM	30	30	177	748	159	46	23	100%	5.9	21.2%	6.1%	15.1%	3.1%	4.23	4.17	+1.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYM	30	30	177	748	161	45	23	100%	5.9	21.5%	6.1%	15.4%	3.1%	4.18	4.14	+1.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYM	29	29	174	737	158	45	23	100%	6.0	21.5%	6.1%	15.3%	3.2%	4.18	4.18	+1.5
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYM	28	28	169	715	153	45	23	100%	6.0	21.3%	6.3%	15.1%	3.3%	4.23	4.27	+1.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	NYM	27	27	162	683	144	44	23	100%	6.0	21.1%	6.5%	14.6%	3.4%	4.33	4.40	+0.9
2035	30	MLB MLE	NYM	25	25	152	642	133	44	23	100%	6.1	20.8%	6.8%	14.0%	3.6%	4.48	4.57	+0.6
2036	31	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	142	598	122	43	23	100%	5.9	20.4%	7.2%	13.2%	3.8%	4.66	4.77	+0.2
2037	32	MLB MLE	NYM	22	22	131	554	110	42	23	100%	6.0	19.9%	7.6%	12.3%	4.1%	4.86	5.00	-0.1
2038	33	MLB MLE	NYM	20	20	120	508	99	41	22	100%	6.0	19.4%	8.0%	11.4%	4.4%	5.09	5.25	-0.5
2027	22	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	82	346	63	23	11	100%	5.1	18.2%	6.6%	11.6%	3.2%	4.65	4.55	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYM	23	23	125	528	104	33	17	100%	5.4	19.7%	6.3%	13.4%	3.2%	4.46	4.36	+0.8
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYM	26	26	145	612	127	38	19	100%	5.6	20.7%	6.2%	14.5%	3.1%	4.32	4.23	+1.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYM	27	27	157	663	141	40	21	100%	5.8	21.2%	6.1%	15.1%	3.1%	4.23	4.17	+1.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYM	27	27	162	684	147	41	21	100%	6.0	21.5%	6.1%	15.4%	3.1%	4.18	4.14	+1.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYM	27	27	162	684	147	42	22	100%	6.0	21.5%	6.1%	15.3%	3.2%	4.18	4.18	+1.4
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYM	26	26	159	671	143	42	22	100%	6.1	21.3%	6.3%	15.1%	3.3%	4.23	4.27	+1.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	NYM	26	26	154	650	137	42	22	100%	5.9	21.1%	6.5%	14.6%	3.4%	4.33	4.40	+0.9
2035	30	MLB CTX	NYM	24	24	144	608	126	41	22	100%	6.0	20.8%	6.8%	14.0%	3.6%	4.48	4.57	+0.6
2036	31	MLB CTX	NYM	22	22	135	570	116	41	22	100%	6.1	20.4%	7.2%	13.2%	3.8%	4.65	4.76	+0.2
2037	32	MLB CTX	NYM	21	21	125	528	105	40	22	100%	6.0	19.9%	7.6%	12.3%	4.1%	4.85	4.99	-0.1
2038	33	MLB CTX	NYM	19	19	114	481	93	39	21	100%	6.0	19.4%	8.0%	11.4%	4.4%	5.08	5.24	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		284	284	1664	7025	1450	463	241	100%	5.9	20.6%	6.6%	14.0%	3.4%	4.43	4.07	+16.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	174	56	29	100%	5.9	20.6%	6.6%	14.0%	3.4%	4.43	4.07	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		87	84	426	1785	283	122	65	97%	4.9	15.8%	6.8%	9.0%	3.6%	3.95	4.62	+10.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	39	200	838	133	57	30	97%	4.9	15.8%	6.8%	9.0%	3.6%	3.95	4.62	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gary Gill Hill (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	15.7%	6.9%	3.3%	—	4.38	19.6%	13.2%	510	-0.47	—	—	—
Jeremy Rhoades R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP	4.73	17.3%	7.3%	3.9%	.307	4.56	14.7%	7.3%	278	-0.17	3.48	496	90
Brian Shaffer R 2018 · 4.58 FIP	21	SP	4.58	15.3%	5.8%	3.7%	.262	3.54	16.9%	10.8%	126	-1.04	2.94	271	90
Boomer Biegalski R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP	4.39	13.6%	7.0%	2.8%	.283	4.27	25.3%	17.1%	73	-0.12	2.51	275	89
Chase De Jong R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	21	SP	4.43	17.3%	6.6%	3.5%	.269	4.67	15.4%	7.7%	460	+0.24	4.23	833	89
Garrett Schilling R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP	4.47	16.0%	8.5%	3.0%	.327	5.05	16.6%	7.4%	180	+0.58	4.47	352	87
Tyler Viza R 2016 · 4.18 FIP	21	SP	4.18	14.6%	5.7%	2.9%	.307	4.74	15.4%	7.7%	286	+0.56	3.27	641	87
Aaron Shortridge R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP	4.06	14.7%	5.3%	2.8%	.288	5.24	11.8%	-1.6%	55	+1.18	4.06	401	87
Brandon Miller R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	15.2%	6.9%	4.1%	.299	5.51	14.0%	7.4%	123	+0.57	4.94	245	87
Zane Mills R 2022 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	12.9%	6.6%	2.5%	.310	4.56	15.8%	6.9%	213	+0.31	4.10	357	86
Kyle Luckham R 2023 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	14.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.286	4.27	13.7%	6.7%	376	-0.13	3.78	501	86
Austin Coley R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	13.4%	4.8%	3.4%	.282	4.28	13.1%	5.7%	334	-0.14	3.58	506	86
Tyler Mahle R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	21	SP	4.45	18.0%	6.7%	3.7%	.280	3.89	20.9%	13.8%	436	-0.56	2.94	1,350	85
Zach Jemiola R 2015 · 5.05 FIP	21	SP	5.05	14.2%	7.2%	4.1%	.276	4.71	10.1%	1.9%	244	-0.34	4.38	397	85
Michael McGreevy R 2022 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	15.7%	5.6%	2.8%	.314	3.83	17.1%	11.9%	497	-0.21	3.51	795	85
Brady Feigl R 2019 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP	3.93	15.9%	7.0%	2.3%	.333	5.26	19.4%	9.8%	122	+1.33	3.93	257	85
Derek Diamond R 2023 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP	4.73	14.4%	6.9%	3.6%	.307	4.58	15.9%	10.1%	151	-0.15	3.53	270	85
Jordan Kipper R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	22	SP	4.78	13.0%	8.0%	3.2%	.324	4.29	10.7%	3.8%	304	-0.49	3.97	432	85
Alex Faedo R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP	4.72	17.4%	7.8%	3.8%	.252	3.73	22.9%	17.1%	115	-0.99	3.66	456	84
Ian Mejia R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.8%	6.4%	3.9%	.300	4.73	17.1%	6.8%	318	+0.11	3.94	439	84
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.68	17.7%	9.7%	415	-0.06	4.33	536	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.4	159	20.2%	6.6%	1.32	4.47
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12