Gary Gill Hill

P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 160 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP45OGV rank#66ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ATB	22	21	109	3.15	2.99	24.2%	6.2%	—	K 17.9% · BB 7.4% · FIP 4.32
2025	20	A+TB	25	25	137	3.82	3.81	18.8%	5.3%	—	K 14.5% · BB 6.1% · FIP 4.85
2026	21	MIX3 levels	26	26	140	4.25	3.69	20.1%	4.9%	—	K 16.2% · BB 5.5% · FIP 4.53
2027PROJ	22	MLBNYM	1	1	3	4.64	4.64	15.7%	5.0%	0.0
2028PROJ50% MLB	23	MLBNYM	15	15	80	4.48	4.40	18.0%	5.0%	0.9
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBNYM	20	20	112	4.34	4.25	19.4%	5.0%	1.5

Next 3 projected WAR 2.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$4M2033Arb-2$5M2034Arb-3$6M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.9 / P90 16, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 77%

CompsAustin Coley (age 23) · Aaron Shortridge (age 22) · Michael McGreevy (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%15.7%

BB%5.0%

K-BB%10.7%

Proj IP160

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 160 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$60M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$10M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$9M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+1.6	$9M	+$7M
2033	Arb-2	$5M	+1.4	$7M	+$4M
2034	Arb-3	$6M	+1.2	$6M	+$3M
Totals		$18M		$51M	+$41M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	41	191	39	19	3	86%	2.9	14.1%	12.2%	1.9%	2.6%	5.49	4.91	—
2023	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	12	41	191	39	19	3	86%	2.9	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	1.6%	5.49	3.54	—
2024	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	22	21	109	433	105	27	9	95%	4.9	17.9%	7.4%	10.6%	3.3%	3.15	4.32	—
2024	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	22	21	109	433	105	27	9	95%	4.9	17.9%	7.4%	10.6%	3.3%	3.15	4.32	—
2024	19	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	22	21	109	433	105	27	9	95%	4.9	24.2%	6.2%	18.0%	2.1%	3.15	2.99	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	25	137	569	107	30	17	100%	5.5	14.5%	6.1%	8.4%	4.0%	3.82	4.85	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	25	137	569	107	30	17	100%	5.5	14.5%	6.1%	8.4%	4.0%	3.82	4.85	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	25	137	569	107	30	17	100%	5.5	18.8%	5.3%	13.5%	3.0%	3.82	3.81	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	140	592	119	29	18	100%	5.4	16.2%	5.5%	10.7%	3.8%	4.25	4.53	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	140	592	119	29	18	100%	5.4	16.2%	5.5%	10.7%	3.8%	4.25	4.53	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	140	592	119	29	18	100%	5.4	20.1%	4.9%	15.2%	3.0%	4.25	3.69	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	NYM	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	15.7%	5.0%	10.7%	3.4%	4.64	4.64	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYM	30	30	160	674	121	34	22	100%	5.3	18.0%	5.0%	13.0%	3.3%	4.48	4.40	+1.9
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYM	29	29	160	674	131	33	22	100%	5.5	19.4%	5.0%	14.4%	3.2%	4.34	4.25	+2.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYM	21	21	125	527	106	26	17	100%	5.9	20.2%	5.0%	15.2%	3.2%	4.24	4.17	+1.8
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYM	21	21	124	526	108	26	17	100%	5.9	20.6%	5.0%	15.7%	3.2%	4.18	4.13	+1.9
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYM	20	20	122	513	106	26	17	100%	6.1	20.6%	5.1%	15.6%	3.3%	4.17	4.17	+1.8
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYM	19	19	116	490	101	26	16	100%	6.1	20.5%	5.2%	15.3%	3.4%	4.22	4.26	+1.6
2034	29	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	108	457	93	25	16	100%	6.0	20.3%	5.5%	14.8%	3.5%	4.32	4.39	+1.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	NYM	16	16	98	415	83	24	15	100%	6.1	19.9%	5.8%	14.2%	3.7%	4.47	4.56	+1.0
2036	31	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	88	372	73	23	15	100%	5.9	19.5%	6.1%	13.4%	3.9%	4.65	4.77	+0.6
2037	32	MLB MLE	NYM	13	13	78	328	63	21	14	100%	6.0	19.1%	6.5%	12.6%	4.2%	4.86	4.99	+0.4
2038	33	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	68	287	53	20	13	100%	6.2	18.6%	7.0%	11.6%	4.5%	5.09	5.24	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYM	15	15	80	338	61	17	11	100%	5.3	18.0%	5.0%	13.0%	3.3%	4.48	4.40	+0.9
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	112	473	92	23	15	100%	5.6	19.4%	5.0%	14.4%	3.2%	4.34	4.25	+1.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYM	17	17	102	431	87	21	14	100%	6.0	20.2%	5.0%	15.2%	3.2%	4.24	4.17	+1.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	109	460	95	23	15	100%	6.1	20.6%	5.0%	15.7%	3.2%	4.18	4.13	+1.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	110	464	96	24	15	100%	6.1	20.6%	5.1%	15.6%	3.3%	4.17	4.17	+1.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	107	452	93	24	15	100%	5.9	20.5%	5.2%	15.3%	3.4%	4.22	4.26	+1.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	NYM	17	17	101	426	86	23	15	100%	5.9	20.3%	5.5%	14.8%	3.5%	4.32	4.39	+1.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	NYM	15	15	92	388	77	22	14	100%	6.1	19.9%	5.8%	14.2%	3.7%	4.46	4.55	+0.9
2036	31	MLB CTX	NYM	14	14	84	355	69	22	14	100%	6.0	19.5%	6.1%	13.4%	3.9%	4.64	4.76	+0.6
2037	32	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	74	312	60	20	13	100%	6.2	19.1%	6.5%	12.6%	4.2%	4.85	4.98	+0.3
2038	33	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	65	274	51	19	12	100%	5.9	18.6%	7.0%	11.6%	4.5%	5.08	5.23	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		176	176	1035	4368	865	238	154	100%	5.9	19.8%	5.4%	14.4%	3.5%	4.41	4.05	+16.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	167	46	30	100%	5.9	19.8%	5.4%	14.4%	3.5%	4.41	4.05	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		87	84	426	1785	283	122	65	97%	4.9	15.8%	6.8%	9.0%	3.6%	3.95	4.62	+14.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	39	200	838	133	57	30	97%	4.9	15.8%	6.8%	9.0%	3.6%	3.95	4.62	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 108 IPFIP 3.55 → 4.23 (+0.68)K% 19.6% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.60%	—	×0.810	15.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.19%	—	×1.100	4.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.44%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.55 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 27 IPFIP 4.56 → 5.73 (+1.17)K% 22.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.41%	—	×0.770	17.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.76%	—	×1.150	8.92%
HR / BF /BF	4.31%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.39%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.56 → 5.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 5 IPFIP 2.14 → 2.30 (+0.16)K% 18.2% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.860	15.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×0.900	4.09%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.14 → 2.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 137 IPFIP 3.82 → 4.85 (+1.03)K% 18.8% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.80%	—	×0.770	14.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.27%	—	×1.150	6.06%
HR / BF /BF	2.99%	÷0.930	×1.250	4.01%

Result: FIP 3.82 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ACharleston RiverDogs · 109 IPFIP 2.98 → 4.32 (+1.33)K% 24.2% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.25%	—	×0.740	17.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.24%	—	×1.180	7.36%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷0.824	×1.300	3.28%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 65).

Result: FIP 2.98 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Rays · 37 IPFIP 3.54 → 4.91 (+1.38)K% 20.7% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.69%	—	×0.680	14.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.77%	—	×1.250	12.21%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷0.911	×1.400	2.65%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 3.54 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gary Gill Hill (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.28	19.1%	14.1%	444	-0.36	—	—	—
Austin Coley R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	13.4%	4.8%	3.4%	.282	4.28	13.1%	5.7%	334	-0.14	3.58	506	89
Aaron Shortridge R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP	4.06	14.7%	5.3%	2.8%	.288	5.24	11.8%	-1.6%	55	+1.18	4.06	401	87
Michael McGreevy R 2022 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	15.7%	5.6%	2.8%	.314	3.79	17.5%	12.3%	497	-0.25	3.46	810	86
Jeremy Rhoades R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	22	SP	4.73	17.3%	7.3%	3.9%	.307	4.56	14.7%	7.3%	278	-0.17	3.48	496	86
Ian Mejia R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.8%	6.4%	3.9%	.300	4.73	17.1%	6.8%	318	+0.11	3.94	439	85
Kyle Luckham R 2023 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	14.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.286	4.26	13.8%	6.8%	376	-0.14	3.78	501	85
Micah Owings R 2007 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.4%	3.1%	.264	4.75	16.4%	5.4%	258	+0.40	4.23	473	84
Ryan Lillie R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	16.9%	5.1%	3.3%	.272	4.83	15.3%	6.7%	146	+0.70	3.00	310	84
Cristian Alvarado R 2017 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP	3.90	13.8%	4.0%	2.7%	.316	3.89	15.7%	10.9%	229	-0.01	2.72	562	84
Daury Torrez R 2015 · 4.18 FIP	22	SP	4.18	12.0%	4.4%	2.8%	.291	3.89	15.3%	9.5%	221	-0.29	3.53	356	84
Reggie McClain R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	15.0%	6.2%	3.3%	.315	4.26	16.2%	9.0%	227	-0.18	2.99	452	84
Brady Feigl R 2019 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP	3.93	15.9%	7.0%	2.3%	.333	5.26	19.4%	9.8%	122	+1.33	3.93	257	84
Brett Kennedy R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	18.5%	7.1%	3.5%	.292	3.85	18.0%	10.8%	116	-0.50	3.85	654	84
Nathan Bannister R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP	5.08	15.4%	4.0%	5.1%	.299	5.75	10.9%	2.6%	138	+0.67	5.08	281	84
Boomer Biegalski R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP	4.39	13.6%	7.0%	2.8%	.283	4.27	25.3%	17.1%	73	-0.12	2.51	275	84
Brandon Miller R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	15.2%	6.9%	4.1%	.299	5.51	14.0%	7.4%	123	+0.57	4.94	245	83
Paul Richan R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	22	SP	3.87	17.2%	4.5%	3.0%	.334	6.39	18.0%	9.5%	29	+2.52	3.87	153	83
Jack Mahoney R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	17.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.307	4.16	15.0%	4.8%	206	+0.25	3.80	326	83
Austin Peterson R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.0%	6.3%	3.1%	.335	3.49	19.8%	14.1%	408	-0.82	2.69	525	83
Tyler Cleveland R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP-	3.99	14.5%	5.4%	2.6%	.284	4.41	18.9%	5.6%	149	+0.42	2.66	285	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.0	117	19.3%	5.3%	1.35	4.43
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Doug Bird ('73-'83, 10 WAR*)	6.1	110	20.3%*	5.8%*	1.41*	4.43*
Phil Hughes ('18)	6.5	108	18.9%	5.7%	1.33	4.52
Atlee Hammaker ('81-'95, 9 WAR*)	5.4	120	18.1%*	6.4%*	1.18*	4.37*
Lee Stange ('61-'70, 9 WAR*)	6.1	135	17.8%*	6.6%*	1.36*	4.14*
Wei-Yin Chen ('19)	5.3	133	18.9%	6.0%	1.32	4.18