Gary Gill Hill — OGILVIE

Gary Gill Hill P Bowling Green Hot Rods

+0.9 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 160 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.6 · 2031

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%18.5%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%11.0%

IP120

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.6peak

2031

K†4555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	18	A	Charleston RiverDogs	14	12	41	191	39	19	3	14.1%	12.2%	2.7%	5.49	4.95	+0.0
2024	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	22	21	109	433	105	27	9	17.9%	7.4%	3.4%	3.15	4.37	+1.2
2025	20	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	25	137	569	107	30	17	14.5%	6.1%	4.0%	3.82	4.87	+0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	3	3	15	69	16	6	5	17.9%	10.0%	9.1%	7.20	7.83	-0.5
ROS	21	MLB	TB	22	22	120	507	94	38	17	18.5%	7.5%	3.3%	4.70	4.70	+0.8
2026 Total	21	MLB	TB	—	—	135	576	110	44	22	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	4.98	5.05	+0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	TB	27	27	148	625	126	44	20	20.2%	7.1%	3.2%	4.54	4.46	+1.4
2028	23	MLB	TB	32	32	174	733	155	50	23	21.1%	6.9%	3.2%	4.40	4.31	+1.9
2029	24	MLB	TB	35	35	194	819	178	55	26	21.7%	6.7%	3.1%	4.29	4.22	+2.4
2030	25	MLB	TB	36	36	196	829	183	54	26	22.1%	6.6%	3.1%	4.21	4.16	+2.5
2031	26	MLB	TB	36	36	196	829	185	54	26	22.3%	6.5%	3.1%	4.17	4.14	+2.6
2032	27	MLB	TB	35	35	195	822	184	54	26	22.4%	6.6%	3.1%	4.16	4.15	+2.5
2033	28	MLB	TB	35	35	192	810	181	53	26	22.3%	6.6%	3.2%	4.17	4.17	+2.5
2034	29	MLB	TB	34	34	188	792	176	53	25	22.2%	6.7%	3.2%	4.20	4.22	+2.3
2035	30	MLB	TB	33	33	182	768	169	52	25	22.0%	6.8%	3.3%	4.25	4.28	+2.1
2036	31	MLB	TB	32	32	176	741	161	51	25	21.7%	6.9%	3.3%	4.31	4.36	+1.9
2037	32	MLB	TB	31	31	169	712	153	50	24	21.5%	7.1%	3.4%	4.39	4.44	+1.6
2038	33	MLB	TB	29	29	161	680	144	49	24	21.2%	7.2%	3.5%	4.48	4.54	+1.4
2039	34	MLB	TB	28	28	153	646	134	48	23	20.8%	7.4%	3.6%	4.58	4.65	+1.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			64	61	301	1262	199	97	49	15.8%	7.7%	3.9%	3.97	4.87	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—			42	40	200	838	132	64	33	15.8%	7.7%	3.9%	3.97	4.87	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gary Gill Hill (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	18.5%	7.5%	3.3%	—	4.32	21.1%	14.2%	516	-0.38	—	—	—
Colton Eastman R 2027 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	19.4%	7.9%	3.4%	.304	4.97	17.0%	2.8%	155	+0.64	4.19	349	94
Chris McMahon R 2027 · 3.96 FIP	22	SP-	3.96	18.9%	7.6%	2.7%	.330	5.28	16.7%	9.2%	85	+1.32	3.96	199	92
Jack Mahoney R 2027 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP-	3.90	17.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.307	4.57	13.9%	3.2%	105	+0.67	3.90	225	91
Logan Workman R 2028 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.98	20.4%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.84	494	91
Ryan Gallagher R 2027 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP-	4.34	20.5%	6.6%	3.9%	.304	4.08	20.6%	8.6%	14	-0.26	4.08	135	90
Jack Wenninger R 2027 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP-	4.25	20.9%	9.3%	3.2%	.309	3.90	21.4%	13.1%	136	-0.35	3.90	251	90
Alex Faedo R 2027 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	17.4%	7.8%	3.8%	.252	3.72	22.9%	17.1%	115	-1.00	3.72	438	89
Grant Rogers R 2028 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP-	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	3.89	14.2%	7.6%	150	-0.19	3.89	262	89
Wil Jensen R 2028 · 4.38 FIP	23	SP-	4.38	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	-0.01	3.50	368	89
Austin Cates R 2027 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP-	3.95	19.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	110	89
Kyle Scott R 2027 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP-	4.19	17.7%	8.2%	2.8%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.25	3.94	138	89
Ian Mejia R 2028 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.8%	6.4%	3.9%	.300	4.06	17.8%	8.0%	252	-0.56	3.95	373	89
Blake Aita R 2027 · 4.61 FIP	22	SP-	4.61	16.2%	7.5%	3.5%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	115	88
Jason Bahr R 2028 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP-	3.79	20.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.07	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.28	3.32	315	88
Ryan Lillie R 2027 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP-	4.14	16.9%	5.1%	3.3%	.272	4.82	15.3%	6.7%	146	+0.68	3.00	310	88
Colin Peluse R 2028 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP-	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.61	15.0%	6.8%	236	+1.41	3.05	395	88
James Hicks R 2028 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	7.2%	3.4%	.338	4.35	17.5%	10.4%	61	+0.12	3.67	167	88
Carson LaRue R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	21	SP-	3.83	16.0%	7.3%	2.1%	.283	5.05	15.4%	6.3%	224	+1.22	3.83	360	88
Alex Eubanks R 2027 · 4.08 FIP	22	SP-	4.08	16.1%	7.3%	2.6%	.335	3.84	11.1%	3.0%	107	-0.24	3.84	219	88
Adrian Houser R 2027 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP-	4.41	16.6%	8.8%	2.9%	.298	3.93	15.5%	7.4%	163	-0.48	3.50	1,127	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.5	$23M	+$22M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.6	$24M	+$23M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.5	$24M	+$23M
2033	Arb-1	$5M	+2.5	$25M	+$20M
2034	Arb-2	$8M	+2.3	$23M	+$15M
2035	Arb-3	$11M	+2.1	$22M	+$11M
Totals		$27M		$140M	+$114M