Gary Gill Hill
P
Montgomery Biscuits
Age 21
RHP
6'2" / 160 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.4 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION90 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131121vR 112
ERA4.94
FIP4.94
K%15.7%
BB%6.9%
K-BB%8.8%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 159 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 12 | 41 | 191 | 39 | 19 | 3 | 86% | 2.9 | 14.1% | 12.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.49 | 5.07 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 12 | 41 | 191 | 39 | 19 | 3 | 86% | 2.9 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 1.6% | 5.49 | 3.54 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 22 | 21 | 109 | 433 | 105 | 27 | 9 | 95% | 4.9 | 17.9% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 4.2% | 3.15 | 4.80 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 22 | 21 | 109 | 433 | 105 | 27 | 9 | 95% | 4.9 | 24.2% | 6.2% | 18.0% | 2.1% | 3.15 | 2.99 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 25 | 25 | 137 | 569 | 107 | 30 | 17 | 100% | 5.5 | 14.5% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 4.3% | 3.82 | 5.03 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 25 | 25 | 137 | 569 | 107 | 30 | 17 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.8% | 5.3% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 3.82 | 3.81 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 17 | 17 | 90 | 386 | 71 | 21 | 14 | 100% | 5.3 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 4.38 | 5.06 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | TB | 13 | 13 | 69 | 291 | 46 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.3 | 15.7% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 4.94 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | TB | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 15.7% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.89 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | TB | — | — | 159 | 677 | 117 | 41 | 24 | — | — | 17.2% | 6.1% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 4.62 | 5.01 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 21 | MLB | TB | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 15.7% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TB | 32 | 32 | 164 | 695 | 126 | 46 | 23 | 100% | 5.1 | 18.2% | 6.6% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.73 | 4.63 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | TB | 32 | 32 | 171 | 721 | 142 | 46 | 24 | 100% | 5.3 | 19.7% | 6.3% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.43 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | TB | 31 | 31 | 175 | 739 | 153 | 46 | 24 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.7% | 6.2% | 14.5% | 3.3% | 4.40 | 4.31 | +2.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | TB | 30 | 30 | 177 | 748 | 159 | 46 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.2% | 6.1% | 15.1% | 3.2% | 4.30 | 4.24 | +2.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | TB | 30 | 30 | 177 | 748 | 161 | 45 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.5% | 6.1% | 15.4% | 3.2% | 4.25 | 4.21 | +2.5 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | TB | 29 | 29 | 174 | 737 | 158 | 45 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.5% | 6.1% | 15.3% | 3.3% | 4.25 | 4.25 | +2.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | TB | 28 | 28 | 169 | 715 | 153 | 45 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.3% | 6.3% | 15.1% | 3.4% | 4.30 | 4.34 | +2.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | TB | 27 | 27 | 162 | 683 | 144 | 44 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.1% | 6.5% | 14.6% | 3.5% | 4.40 | 4.47 | +1.8 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 152 | 642 | 133 | 44 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.8% | 6.8% | 14.0% | 3.7% | 4.55 | 4.64 | +1.4 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 142 | 598 | 122 | 43 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 13.2% | 4.0% | 4.73 | 4.84 | +0.9 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 131 | 554 | 110 | 42 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.9% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 4.2% | 4.93 | 5.07 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 120 | 508 | 99 | 41 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 8.0% | 11.4% | 4.5% | 5.16 | 5.32 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | TB | 16 | 16 | 82 | 346 | 63 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 5.1 | 18.2% | 6.6% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.58 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 125 | 528 | 104 | 33 | 17 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.7% | 6.3% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.38 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 145 | 612 | 127 | 38 | 19 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.7% | 6.2% | 14.5% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 4.26 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | TB | 27 | 27 | 157 | 663 | 141 | 40 | 21 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.2% | 6.1% | 15.1% | 3.2% | 4.25 | 4.19 | +2.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | TB | 27 | 27 | 162 | 684 | 147 | 41 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.5% | 6.1% | 15.4% | 3.2% | 4.20 | 4.16 | +2.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | TB | 27 | 27 | 162 | 684 | 147 | 42 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.5% | 6.1% | 15.3% | 3.2% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +2.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 159 | 671 | 143 | 42 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.3% | 6.3% | 15.1% | 3.3% | 4.25 | 4.29 | +2.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 154 | 650 | 137 | 42 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 6.5% | 14.6% | 3.4% | 4.35 | 4.42 | +1.8 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 126 | 41 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.8% | 6.8% | 14.0% | 3.6% | 4.49 | 4.58 | +1.4 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 116 | 41 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 13.2% | 3.9% | 4.67 | 4.78 | +1.0 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 105 | 40 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.9% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 4.1% | 4.87 | 5.01 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 93 | 39 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 8.0% | 11.4% | 4.4% | 5.09 | 5.25 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 285 | 285 | 1665 | 7030 | 1450 | 464 | 244 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.6% | 6.6% | 14.0% | 3.5% | 4.46 | 4.09 | +25.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 174 | 56 | 29 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.6% | 6.6% | 14.0% | 3.5% | 4.46 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 78 | 75 | 377 | 1579 | 243 | 113 | 65 | 96% | 4.8 | 15.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 3.94 | 4.98 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 40 | 200 | 838 | 129 | 60 | 35 | 96% | 4.8 | 15.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 3.94 | 4.98 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gary Gill Hill (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.94 | 15.7% | 6.9% | 3.5% | — | 4.45 | 19.6% | 13.2% | 510 | -0.49 | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Rhoades R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.90 | 17.3% | 7.3% | 4.2% | .307 | 4.76 | 14.7% | 7.3% | 278 | -0.14 | 3.54 | 496 | 89 |
| Brian Shaffer R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.81 | 15.3% | 5.8% | 4.1% | .262 | 3.62 | 16.9% | 10.8% | 126 | -1.19 | 2.98 | 271 | 88 |
| Chase De Jong R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.53 | 17.3% | 6.6% | 3.7% | .269 | 4.74 | 15.4% | 7.7% | 460 | +0.21 | 4.11 | 833 | 88 |
| Boomer Biegalski R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.36 | 13.6% | 7.0% | 2.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 25.3% | 17.1% | 73 | -0.56 | 2.31 | 275 | 88 |
| Brandon Miller R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.65 | 15.2% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .299 | 5.25 | 14.0% | 7.4% | 123 | +0.60 | 4.65 | 245 | 88 |
| Kyle Luckham R 2028 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.58 | 14.5% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .286 | 4.39 | 13.8% | 6.6% | 357 | -0.19 | 4.01 | 482 | 86 |
| Garrett Schilling R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.32 | 16.0% | 8.5% | 2.7% | .327 | 4.78 | 16.6% | 7.4% | 180 | +0.46 | 4.32 | 352 | 86 |
| Kade Morris R 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.14 | 16.1% | 8.4% | 4.2% | .282 | 4.46 | 16.1% | 7.7% | 242 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 372 | 86 |
| Aaron Shortridge R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.97 | 14.7% | 5.3% | 2.6% | .288 | 5.14 | 11.8% | -1.6% | 55 | +1.17 | 3.97 | 378 | 86 |
| Derek Diamond R 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.57 | 14.4% | 6.9% | 3.3% | .307 | 4.89 | 14.7% | 8.7% | 124 | +0.32 | 4.57 | 243 | 85 |
| Tyler Viza R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.02 | 14.6% | 5.7% | 2.6% | .307 | 4.73 | 15.4% | 7.7% | 286 | +0.71 | 3.25 | 641 | 85 |
| Zane Mills R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.22 | 12.9% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .310 | 4.45 | 15.8% | 6.9% | 213 | +0.23 | 3.98 | 357 | 85 |
| Alex Faedo R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.50 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .252 | 3.39 | 22.9% | 17.1% | 115 | -1.11 | 3.39 | 438 | 85 |
| Austin Coley R 2028 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.22 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.21 | 13.1% | 5.7% | 334 | -0.01 | 3.55 | 506 | 85 |
| Trystan Vrieling R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.99 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .297 | 4.91 | 17.2% | 3.9% | 150 | +0.92 | 3.99 | 297 | 85 |
| Jordan Kipper R 2027 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 13.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .324 | 4.34 | 10.7% | 3.8% | 304 | -0.67 | 3.88 | 432 | 85 |
| Michael McGreevy R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.94 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 2.7% | .314 | 3.88 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 497 | -0.06 | 3.51 | 743 | 85 |
| Jack Mahoney R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.87 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.99 | 15.5% | 5.2% | 155 | +0.12 | 3.33 | 275 | 85 |
| Ian Mejia R 2028 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.58 | 16.8% | 6.4% | 3.8% | .300 | 4.65 | 17.2% | 7.2% | 281 | +0.07 | 4.04 | 402 | 85 |
| Tyler Mahle R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.53 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .280 | 3.89 | 20.9% | 13.8% | 436 | -0.64 | 2.85 | 1,290 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 13 | 159 | 20.2% | 6.6% | 1.37 | 4.55 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS | 9 | 125 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 4.25 |
| Chase Anderson ('24) | 10 | 99 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 4.45 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |