Cristian Alvarado
P Sacramento River Cats| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | A+BAL | 26 | 26 | 155 | 4.18 | 3.60 | 18.2% | 3.5% | — | K 14.0% · BB 4.1% · FIP 3.90 |
| 2019 | 24 | AABowie Baysox | 40 | 0 | 74 | 2.66 | 3.13 | 23.8% | 5.8% | — | K 19.3% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.87 |
| 2026 | 31 | MIX2 levels | 21 | 0 | 28 | 4.88 | 3.21 | 29.8% | 9.9% | — | K 15.0% · BB 10.1% · FIP 5.38 |
| 2027PROJ | 32 | MLBSF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4.96 | 4.96 | 17.6% | 9.8% | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ37% MLB | 33 | MLBSF | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5.05 | 5.15 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 0.0 |
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Orioles | 5 | 3 | 27 | 101 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 60% | 5.4 | 13.5% | 0.0% | 13.5% | 1.4% | 0.33 | 2.72 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK RAW | GCL Orioles | 5 | 3 | 27 | 101 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 60% | 5.4 | 19.8% | 0.0% | 19.8% | 1.0% | 0.33 | 2.10 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | 27 | 27 | 148 | 619 | 148 | 29 | 11 | 100% | 5.5 | 17.7% | 5.5% | 12.2% | 2.5% | 3.41 | 3.67 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A RAW | Delmarva Shorebirds | 27 | 27 | 148 | 619 | 148 | 29 | 11 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.9% | 4.7% | 19.2% | 1.8% | 3.41 | 2.65 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | 26 | 25 | 140 | 608 | 109 | 21 | 16 | 96% | 5.4 | 13.8% | 4.0% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 5.00 | 3.90 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ RAW | Frederick Keys | 26 | 25 | 140 | 608 | 109 | 21 | 16 | 96% | 5.4 | 17.9% | 3.5% | 14.5% | 2.6% | 5.00 | 3.48 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | 26 | 26 | 155 | 653 | 119 | 23 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.0% | 4.1% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 3.90 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ RAW | Frederick Keys | 26 | 26 | 155 | 653 | 119 | 23 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.2% | 3.5% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 3.60 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | 40 | 0 | 74 | 294 | 70 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.9 | 19.3% | 6.4% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 2.66 | 3.87 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | Bowie Baysox | 40 | 0 | 74 | 294 | 70 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.9 | 23.8% | 5.8% | 18.0% | 2.4% | 2.66 | 3.13 | — |
| 2026 | 31 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 21 | 0 | 28 | 121 | 36 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.0% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.88 | 5.38 | — |
| 2026 | 31 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 21 | 0 | 28 | 121 | 36 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.0% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.88 | 5.38 | — |
| 2026 | 31 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 21 | 0 | 28 | 121 | 36 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.8% | 9.9% | 19.8% | 2.5% | 4.88 | 3.21 | — |
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 4.96 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 33 | MLB MLE | SF | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 5.05 | 5.15 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB CTX | SF | 1 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 7.0 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 5.05 | 5.15 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 1 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 7.4 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 5.05 | 4.77 | +0.1 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 27 | 27 | 200 | 844 | 136 | 82 | 27 | 100% | 7.3 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 5.05 | 4.77 | +1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 145 | 81 | 572 | 2396 | 374 | 116 | 64 | 56% | 3.9 | 15.6% | 4.8% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 3.84 | 3.86 | +0.1 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 51 | 28 | 200 | 837 | 131 | 40 | 22 | 56% | 3.9 | 15.6% | 4.8% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 3.84 | 3.86 | +0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 17 IPFIP 5.11 → 5.38 (+0.27)K% 17.5% → 15.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 17.50% | — | ×0.860 | 15.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 11.25% | — | ×0.900 | 10.12% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.75% | ÷1.000 | ×1.100 | 4.12% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).
Result: FIP 5.11 → 5.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 11 IPFIP -0.50 → 0.45 (+0.95)K% 53.7% → 43.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 53.66% | — | ×0.810 | 43.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 7.32% | — | ×1.100 | 8.05% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).
Result: FIP -0.50 → 0.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AABowie Baysox · 74 IPFIP 3.13 → 3.87 (+0.74)K% 23.8% → 19.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 23.81% | — | ×0.810 | 19.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 5.78% | — | ×1.100 | 6.36% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.38% | ÷0.987 | ×1.200 | 2.89% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).
Result: FIP 3.13 → 3.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Frederick Keys · 155 IPFIP 3.60 → 3.90 (+0.29)K% 18.2% → 14.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 18.22% | — | ×0.770 | 14.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 3.52% | — | ×1.150 | 4.05% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.91% | ÷1.357 | ×1.250 | 2.68% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 171).
Result: FIP 3.60 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Frederick Keys · 140 IPFIP 3.47 → 3.90 (+0.43)K% 17.9% → 13.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 17.93% | — | ×0.770 | 13.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 3.45% | — | ×1.150 | 3.97% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.63% | ÷1.238 | ×1.250 | 2.66% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 148).
Result: FIP 3.47 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 148 IPFIP 2.65 → 3.67 (+1.02)K% 23.9% → 17.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 23.91% | — | ×0.740 | 17.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 4.68% | — | ×1.180 | 5.53% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.78% | ÷0.928 | ×1.300 | 2.49% |
Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).
Result: FIP 2.65 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKGCL Orioles · 27 IPFIP 1.97 → 2.72 (+0.75)K% 19.8% → 13.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 19.80% | — | ×0.680 | 13.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 0.00% | — | ×1.250 | 0.00% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.99% | ÷1.000 | ×1.400 | 1.39% |
Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).
Result: FIP 1.97 → 2.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).